Philadelphia Phillies Preview

As I sat down to write the Phillies essay this year (a week later than I was supposed to), I was very tempted to take my 2004 Phillies Essay and just substitute Kenny Lofton's name for Marlon Byrd, Corey Lidle's name for Eric Milton, Jon Lieber's for Kevin Millwood, and Charlie Manuel's for Larry Bowa's. Actually, I tried it, and the reusing last year's essay was working really well until I got to the spots where I appeared to comment on "Charlie Manuel's demonstrativeness".

So I'm begrudgingly (and well past my deadline, sorry) writing a new essay this year, but I want the reader to keep in mind that not a whole lot has changed from last year. This, of course, means that the Phillies are the front runner for the NL East Crown, just like last year. Before I run down the Phillies 2005 chances, a short 2004 post-mortem is likely in order.

Pitching. Pitching. Pitching. Some deluded folks might want to dwell on the team's hitting with runners in scoring position (.784 w/RISP vs. .788 in all situations) or the 390 strikeouts that the 3-4-5 hitters amassed, but all the blame falls sixty feet from home plate.

The Phillies top five starters had ERA's of 4.28, 4.53, 4.75, 4.85, and 5.52. In addition, injuries to Wolf and Padilla transferred ten starts each to Paul Abbott and Cory Lidle (actually the most successful starter last year). In the bullpen, things were a little better until Billy Wagner and Ryan Madson both went down with injuries in late July. A 12-16 August including a seven game losing streak at home torpedoed any playoff hopes the Phillies had. Overall, the Phillies were 13th in the league ERA.

Oh, and you may have heard Larry Bowa was fired at the end of the season, but more on that later. Let's run through the roster.

Lineup

Once again, the Phillies should have a strong and deep lineup.

Catcher: Mike Lieberthal and Todd Pratt (same as last year)

Lieberthal was a league average hitter last year which is pretty darn good, but any Phan worth his salt would immediately point out Lieby's (creative, I know) struggles with ducks on the pond. A .142/.217/.239 line with runners in scoring position endeared him to the boo birds. However, as most statheads will tell you, "past clutch results may not indicate future clutch performance" (an .867 OPS in RISP situations in 2003), so I don't see any reason he won't be productive next year even in clutch situations.

While Todd Pratt has dropped off considerably the last three years (.949 -> .864 -> .719) and is probably nearing the end of the line, he was still a better than average backup last year. Inexplicably, Ed Wade tried to bring in Sandy Alomar (age 52 in catcher years) to replace him, but since he was physically unable to crouch during his physical, they decided against it. (That's a joke Rangers fans.)

First Base: Jim Thome

Thome has been as good as advertised and has had two very good seasons, but last year he missed a few more games, appearing in 143 total and has not reached his great 2001 and 2002 seasons (169 and 191 OPS+ compared to 151 and 148 as a Phillie). He absolutely destroys right handers, but is around an .800 OPS against lefties. It is a shame that Ryan Howard doesn't bat righty because he might be able to give you 200 very good at bats spelling Thome vs. tough lefties and then as a pinch hitter.

Backing up Thome will be some combination Tomas Perez, Chase Utley, and Jose Offerman (?!). Of course, if Thome is gone for any length of time, Ryan Howard will get the playing time. Last year, Howard hit 48 home runs, drew 62 walks and struck out 179 times in 150 games across three levels. Howard has hit well in camp, but the Phillies don't want him getting lefty PH at bats, instead preferring those go to Tomas Perez and his .257 OPS, or Jose Offerman. I can see some case for letting the kid play full time in AAA, but the goal is to win major league ball games, not to break Scranton-Wilkes Barre's home run record.

However, I'm not going to knock Ed Wade for not trading Howard for a hotshot centerfield prospect. I believe there is significant evidence that teams simply don't value young defensively challenged sluggers all that much. Even players like Thome, McGwire, Delgado, and Giambi started out further left on the defensive spectrum than Howard. Howard may eventually hit like David Ortiz, but I don't think that it is guaranteed, and if he doesn't reach that level, he may not be all that valuable.

A word about Jose Offerman. Manuel wants to use Offerman as his top left-handed pinch hitting option. At age 36, I find it very unlikely that Offerman will be able to improve on his last four seasons (OPS+'s of 82, 89, 77, and 97). Offerman is only mediocre against righty pitchers anyways with a .745 OPS the last three years. I'm also not sure that he has much more defensive value than Howard. I still think that using Howard for 100+ pinch hit appearances and 25 starts would be the best approach.

Second Base: Chase Utley

Last year, I publicly demanded Utley's ascension to the starting lineup, but it still took a Placido Polanco injury to get the job done. Utley didn't get called up until May, but even then he wasn't playing full-time. His at bat totals beginning in May were (74, 47, 44, 57, 39). His OBP was a disappointing .308, but he did hit 13 home runs in 267 at bats and should hit 25 or so as a starter this year. David Pinto has Utley as having the best defensive season by a second basemen. He did make some great plays that I saw, though I'm not going to generalize that as solid evidence. I think there is some chance that he could be the top 2Bman in the NL this year. Not a huge chance, but a chance.

He will have the best backup in the league in Placido Polanco, who I'm praying will be flipped for Eric Duncan of the Yankees at some point this summer. Mike Arbuckle was already planning whom to pick with his two supplemental picks from Polanco's free agent signing elsewhere, but finding the free agent market not to his liking, Polanco accepted arbitration and now is the highest paid utility infielder in the league.

Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins

After an off-season of working on hitting the ball on the ground, Rollins had about the same GB/FB ratio in 2004 that he had in the first four years of his career. He did manage career bests in batting average, OBP, slugging and his lowest strikeout rate of his career. He is never going to be in the pantheon on great shortstops, but he is a good player and I'm fairly confident he helps the team with his glove. He hit a good deal better at home last year (.876 to .733), so either he likes the roomier lockers or the park is boosting his power numbers. I don't think he has much more upside than what he showed last year.

Third Base: David Bell

I'm not a David Bell fan (I'll be blunt.), and he proceeded to spite me for the entire season by hitting .291/.363/.458. He appears to be slipping in the field however as he compiled 24 errors versus just 22 DP. As a point of contrast, Scott Rolen was at 10-23 and Adrian Beltre was at 10-32. He also made a boneheaded fielding play about every fifth game I saw, so I'm a bit dubious of just how valuable his veteran leadership is. If it were my team, I would have shopped him around this off-season and put Polanco at third for this year, or maybe even made a play for Adrian Beltre.

Left Field: Pat Burrell

After an abysmal 2003 (.209/.309/.404), Burrell rebounded (.257/.365/.455), but not to the tune of an $11m player, which is what he'll be in 2005-2008. If 2002 is the best that we are going to see from Burrell, then it is going to be a long four years. I'm not saying that Charlie Manuel will be judged on Burrell's success alone, but it may be his most important job on the offensive side. I will give Burrell some credit for making it back into the lineup after his season appeared over from a wrist injury. No one thought he would come back and he managed to 6 home runs in September with a severe wrist injury. He has four home runs this spring, so there don't appear to be any lingering effects.

Just for fun here are Burrell's sims from age 28 to retirement.

Center Field: Marlon Byrd Kenny Lofton

If not for Jason Michaels able fill-in (at least offensively) centerfield would have been a pit of despair in Citizen's Bank Park. Byrd's failure to announce his presence with authority necessitated the acquisition of Kenny Lofton from the Yankees. Perhaps Bowa had gotten inside Byrd's head (he was hitting well in spring training prior to a dislocated finger), but he's lost the position at least for this year and will start the season in AAA.

Lofton had some value last year last year with the Yankees (even if Joe Torre didn't agree), but I'm a bit afraid that we are going to see a .245/.305/.326 line from him in one of the next two years. The job is his however, though the Phillies are hedging their bets with Byrd and two other centerfielders close at hand.

Michaels is still on the team, and the Phillies also have Shane Victorino (rule Ver from the Dodgers and second native of Maui to play in the majors) hanging around. Victorino is 24 and last year killed AA pitching, but struggled in AAA. The Dodgers do not want him back and he has been sent down to AAA.

My wife requires me at this point to mention that Doug Glanville is a wonderful person and an inspiration to us all even if he had a horrible season last year.

Right Field: Bobby Abreu

Abreu finally got an all-star nod last year, but only through the add-on fan voting. I was at the game where it was announced he had made the team. The crowd gave him an extended standing ovation prior to the start of the inning. It was a nice moment for a player who hasn't been recognized as the superstar he is. Abreu is also a super consistent player.

1998  497  .312  .409  .497
1999  546  .335  .446  .549
2000  576  .316  .416  .554
2001  588  .289  .393  .543
2002  572  .308  .413  .521
2003  577  .300  .409  .468
2004  574  .301  .428  .544

C, Ernie Whitt, 133 HR, 934 H, .249/.324/.410, selected by Toronto in 1976
1B, Nate Colbert, 173 HR, 825 H, .245/.324/.456, selected by San Diego in 1968
2B, Eric Young, 450 SB, 1664 H, .285/.361/.392, selected by Colorado in 1993
SS, Jim Fregosi, 151 HR, 1726 H, .265/.338/.398, selected by the L.A. Angels in 1960.
3B, Vinny Castilla, 303 HR, 1696 H, .280/.324/.489, selected by Colorado in 1993
OF, Lou Piniella, 102 HR, 1702 H, .291/.333/.409, selected by Kansas City in 1968
OF, Ruppert Jones, 146 HR, 1092 H, .250/.331/.417, selected by San Diego in 1976
OF, Tommy Harper, 96 HR, 969 H, 273 SB, .260/.344/.390, selected by Seattle in 1968
SP, Dean Chance, 128-115, 2.92 ERA, selected by the Angels in 1960
SP, Jack Billingham, 142-113, 3.88 ERA, selected by Houston in 1968
SP, Pete Vuckovich, 86-64, 3.51 ERA, selected by Toronto in 1976
RP, Mike Marshall, 96-109, 3.19 ERA, 178 SV, selected by Seattle in 1968
RP, Trevor Hoffman, 48-17, 2.74 ERA, 393 SV, selected by Florida in 1993
Manager, Cito Gaston

I think you can make a pretty strong case that Bobby Abreu is the best expansion draft pick ever, or at least he is very likely to be by the time he retires. He is thirty-one this year and doesn't appear to be slowing down at all (a career high 40 SB in 2004). He is probably a more valuable player than Thome is right now, and if Burrell was earning his pay like Abreu, the Phillies would have a killer 3-4-5.

Starting Pitching: Jon Lieber, Vincente Padilla, Brett Myers, Randy Wolf, Corey Lidle, Gavin Floyd

Some combination of those six should get 150 or more of the starts this year. Padilla is currently on the DL and is slated to return sometime at the end of April. Wolf has been recovering from his injury-plagued 2004 (last year I called him the "workhorse"), so for now it will be Lieber, Myers, Wolf, Lidle, and Floyd in the rotation. If spring training is any indication, it will be a long season as Jon Lieber is the only starter with an ERA under 6.00.

Eric Milton won a lot of games, but it wasn't because he was preventing a lot of runs as his 4.75 ERA attests. The common misconception is that the park really hurt him, since he is the most extreme fly ball pitcher in the league. However, he actually pitched better at home (.760 OPS) than on the road (.870 OPS), and even gave up more home runs on the road. For all of the ######## in the papers by the starting staff, only Wolf and Padilla were worse at home than on the road and even then they were only 60 points of OPS worse. More on the park later.

I know that the Lieber signing was greeted largely with yawns in Philadelphia, but I think he could be a very good signing. Here are the GB/FB ratios of last year's staff and the new guy.

                  GB/FB
Jon Lieber        1.43
Eric Milton        .58
Brett Myers       1.41
Kevin Millwood    1.10
Randy Wolf         .84
Vincente Padilla  1.25
Corey Lidle       1.60
Gavin Floyd       1.52 (28 IP)

Given some of the injury and flameout risks in the Phillie rotation, Gavin Floyd looks like a sold bet to start 15+ games this year. Floyd is only 22, but has a sub-3.00 ERA in three minor league seasons and debuted last year at the end of the season. He managed to strikeout 24 in 28 innings and allowed just one home run. His control was a bit shaky, but he has had good control in the minors. He features a good fastball and a tremendous curveball. I expect him to be a good starter this year and he could develop into a very good starter.

Bullpen: Billy Wagner, Tim Worrell, Rheal Cormier, Ryan Madson, Pedro Liriano, Aaron Fultz, Terry Adams

The Phans went bonkers for Billy Wagner. You would have thought that he was throwing lightning bolts like Zeus himself the way the fans reacted to his entrance into each game. As mentioned earlier, Wagner went down last year with rotator cuff soreness and a strained groin, but is in camp still throwing hard. He was positively Eckersley-esque when he pitched with 59 SO and 6 BB in 48 innings, so as long as he is healthy the Phillies should tough to beat with a ninth inning lead. Knowledgeable readers will already know what I think about paying a closer $8m.

Wagner's backups should be very good as well. Madson throws a very heavy ball. He has a 1.94 GB/FB ratio and was lights out in his 77 innings last year with a 2.34 ERA. Unfortunately, I fear that Manuel may not use Madson optimally. Madson came up as a starter and probably could shoulder a 50 G, 120-130 inning load pretty easily. In his years with the Indians, all of Manuel's top relievers averaged roughly an inning per appearance. Madson would be the perfect guy to bring into the fifth or sixth inning of a close game and pitch two or three innings to bridge you to Wagner and Worrell. Madson's injuries last year were a sprained finger and a strained side muscle, so there is no concern as to the soundness of his arm. If I might jump ahead to 2007 for a moment. A big three of Madson, Floyd, and Cole Hamels could approach the ability-level of Hudson, Zito and Mulder.

The Phillies signed Tim Worrell after two dominant years in San Francisco (168 and 149 ERA+). He was good, but not dominant last year, though the only real difference between 2003 and 2004 was a jump from five to ten home runs allowed. Even at 37, he can be written in for 70-80 innings of above average pitching.

Rheal Cormier, a lefty, appeared in more than half of the Phillies games and was a bit more than a LOOGY (Lefthanded One-Out GuY) as he pitched 80 total innings. He can get out righthanded batters almost as well as lefties, so he allows Charlie Manuel more flexibility than a Mike Myers would give him. Cormier is safely in the Mike Remlinger, Chris Hammond, Mark Guthrie class of lefty reliever. Better than a LOOGY, but not out and out dominant year in, year out.

The Phillies are rounding out their bullpen with Aaron Fultz (LOOGY), Terry Adams (assorted middle relief), and Pedro Liriano, a young waiver wire pickup from the Brewers. Liriano is another groundball, who may have some upside, but doesn't project a whole lot better than Terry Adams or Aaron Fultz.

In the Dugout

As you know, Larry Bowa was clumsily fired two days before the end of the season when the Phillies couldn't keep the front office on message. Sports radio was merciless in its treatment of Ed Wade. The team appears to be behind Wade, but the fans and media are decidedly not. Another playoff miss and I think Wade might be bumped upstairs for a new GM. On the coaching staff, Gary Varsho returns as bench coach. Milt Thompson was moved from first base to hitting coach. Thompson's first order of business was to tell Pat Burrell that he wasn't going to tell Pat anything, and that Pat should forget all the advice he's gotten the last two years. We'll see how that goes.

Rich Dubee, the new pitching coach, spent three years in the Phillies minor league system, so he should be familiar with Ryan Madson and Gavin Floyd, who I believe are the only two that he coached directly. He was the Marlins pitching coach from 1998-2001, the four post-WS fire sale years. During that time, he broke in some very good to decent young talent. Ryan Dempster, Matt Clement, Brad Penny, A.J. Burnett, Braden Looper, Brian Meadows, Matt Mantei, and Livan Hernandez all become full-time major leaguers under his direction. The fact he appears to have not screwed them up is probably a positive sign. Dubee is much friendlier with his staff than Joe Kerrigan was and probably has a much better working relationship with them.

Of course, the biggest change is at the top of the coaching staff. Larry Bowa has moved on to XM radio. I think taking the gloves off and giving Bowa a Bushmills-fueled, R-rated hour every night would have proved a ratings bonanza, but alas, it is strictly PG. In my opinion, Bowa's main problem is that he just wasn't that great of a manager. He was clearly the most driven man in the game, but unless you can teach well, or have great strategical insights, or scouting instincts that is not enough. Bowa was similar to Billy Martin and Earl Weaver in temperament, but was not their match intellectually. Strategically, Bowa was down the middle in most categories: IBB, bunts, pitchouts, etc.

Charlie Manuel is a bloodhound to Bowa's bulldog. In relaxation level alone, he might be worth four wins. In 1988, Jack McKeon took over for the Bowa-managed Padres who were 16-30 at the time and went 67-48 the rest of the way. In 1989, McKeon was 89-73 with about the same team. I'm not sure that Manuel is McKeon's equal strategically, but he is pretty similar in personality from my impression.

Manuel had very veteran teams in Cleveland and was able to win when he had the horses. Offensively, he likes to bunt (most often in the first inning), he doesn't steal a great deal and rarely calls for hit and run's.

He likes a set bullpen rotation and most relievers are one-inning or less relievers rather than multiple-inning firemen. In 2000, he was second in the AL in relief appearances, and in 2001, he was first. With the starters, he seems to prefer a quick hook to a slow hook. In 2000 and 2001, he was near the top in IBB's called for. I suspect we'll see a fair number of walks to the number eight hitter.

Just as Bowa was hired mostly for his interpersonal traits, so was Manuel.

Citizen's Bank Park

The new park had the standard beneficial effects on the Phillies bottom line. Attendance jumped from 28,000/game in 2003 at the Vet to 40,000 per game at the CitBa (my lame attempt at a nickname, Sylvia proposes CitiZark), second best in the NL. There were many sellouts last year and tickets were definitely much harder to come by than at the cavernous Veterans Stadium. Architecturally, the park resembles "a suburban office park" according to the Inquirer's architecture critic, Inga Saffron. And the setting around the park is equally compelling. The Phillies definitely went the low risk route when designing and siting the park. Given their player management decisions in the past, this conservatism is not surprising.

Once in the park, the views of the field are great, but sheer area of surrounding parking is particularly drab. Downtown Philly is visible from the upper deck, but is so far away that it is quaint rather than inspiring.

Food in the park is standard fare with some local touches as area cheesesteak vendors have set up shop inside the stadium. Lines are so long in some cases that driving to their out of ballpark locations may actually be quicker. My personal favorite is the Schmitter from McNally's down the third base line. Lo-Cal it is not.

Much was written about the park's inflation of run scoring, but other than raising home run rates, it was a neutral park for overall run scoring. My impression from viewing 20 games last year is that centerfield is Death Valley. I can recall very few balls carrying out of the park to centerfield, but I don't have the hit charts to back that up. However, down the lines, the park plays very small. Several routine fly balls would sneak out of the park appearing to defy the laws physics.

Minor Leagues

In the minors, the Phillies have both traded away players and given up draft picks to sign free agents. Their farm system is weak at the moment. Beyond Ryan Howard, Gavin Floyd, and Cole Hamels (a bit of a question mark after his arm injuries and breaking his hand in a fight), the Phillies do not have much help close to the majors. Michael Bourn and Greg Golson are a pair of promising centerfielders in the low minors, and they have a number of projectable pitching prospects just getting started in pro ball. Howard is clearly their biggest trading chit if some need opens up during the season.

Outlook

I still think the Phillies are the best team talent-wise in the division. Clearly, the Braves, Marlins, and Mets are more than casual challengers, but if Philadelphia remains healthy and their starting pitching is no worse than league-average, the Phillies will be a hard team to beat.

Bold Prediction: 92-70, and a four-game first round loss to the Cardinals.

2005 ZiPS Projections

Name          ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER   BB    K  HR 
Wagner*      2.91   4   1  66   0    68.0   54   22   19   82   6 
Lieber       3.45  12   7  25  25   175.0  183   67   19   95  16 
Madson       3.63   9   5  37  16   124.0  113   50   40  106  11 
Worrell      3.96   6   4  77   0    75.0   71   33   27   60   7 
Padilla      3.96  12  10  29  29   175.0  175   77   51  118  17 
Cormier*     4.19   5   4  71   0    73.0   73   34   29   49   6 
Wolf*        4.19  11   9  29  29   176.0  170   82   59  146  22 
Adams        4.22   6   4  56   8    98.0  101   46   38   63   7 
Geary        4.24   4   3  48   4    87.0   85   41   30   68  10 
Lidle        4.25  12  11  32  32   199.0  205   94   59  115  21 
Giese        4.45   6   7  53   0    85.0   88   42   22   64  14 
Myers        4.52  11  11  32  31   183.0  185   92   66  133  24 
Fultz*       4.66   2   3  56   0    56.0   58   29   24   43   6 
Franco       4.76   4   5  33   9    85.0   90   45   30   50  11 
Floyd        4.82   8   9  28  26   157.0  157   84   78  116  18 
Perez        4.83   5   6  30  18   110.0  119   59   33   69  18 
Hamels*      4.84   3   4  16  16    80.0   68   43   49   95  12 
Condrey      5.35   6  10  28  24   138.0  161   82   43   71  26 
Lee          5.39   6   8  30  20   132.0  141   79   54   97  25 
Brito*       5.60   4   8  41   5    82.0   83   51   50   68  13 
Bucktrot     5.83   5  10  23  22   125.0  143   81   55   70  24 
Liriano      5.91   3  10  35  23   137.0  147   90   74  103  26 
Burke*       5.91   3   5  52   0    70.0   74   46   46   47  10 
Bacsik*      6.54   4   9  33  19   128.0  165   93   45   65  30 
Tejada       6.75   5  12  24  23   124.0  137   93   71  105  33 
Butto        6.84   5  14  31  20   121.0  140   92   77   77  28 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Abreu*       rf  .301  .427  .507 160 584 176 46  1 24 106  99 128 127 27 10 
Thome*       1b  .267  .396  .571 148 517 138 26  1 43  93 114 111 165  0  3 
Rollins#     ss  .278  .339  .422 159 677 188 41  9 13 106  74  64 100 27 12 
Burrell      lf  .252  .361  .463 143 523 132 28  2 26  71  86  89 151  1  0 
Polanco      3b  .297  .350  .434 131 518 154 27  1 14  77  65  34  42  8  4 
Utley*       2b  .275  .341  .462 139 487 134 30  2 19  75  77  45  95  7  4 
Lieberthal   c   .280  .346  .436 131 486 136 29  1 15  55  67  39  68  0  1 
Bell         3b  .266  .346  .425 135 492 131 28  1 16  61  68  56  74  1  1 
Howard*      1b  .250  .316  .462 146 500 125 23  1 27  70  82  45 186  2  1 
Byrd         cf  .262  .325  .387 143 527 138 30  3 10  78  55  44  99  8  3 
Sandoval     ss  .270  .325  .364 134 522 141 30  2  5  69  50  39  73 20 16 
Rushford*    lf  .257  .320  .366 130 487 125 25  2  8  56  55  42  57  2  2 
Lofton*      cf  .271  .335  .392 120 424 115 21  6  6  66  38  37  50 16  6 
Castellano   lf  .266  .315  .403 126 444 118 26  1 11  54  55  29  66  4  2 
Budzinski*   rf  .258  .331  .358 129 469 121 24  7  3  70  38  48 112 10 10 
Minor*       1b  .239  .318  .413 121 397  95 20  2 15  46  55  43  85  0  0 
Victorino    lf  .253  .306  .370 127 467 118 14  4 11  72  47  33  85 19 12 
Medrano      ss  .259  .328  .330 119 424 110 20  2  2  54  37  41  50  4  2 
Michaels     cf  .283  .377  .422 106 251  71 11  0  8  37  34  37  70  2  2 
Coste        c   .278  .328  .389  87 316  88 21  1  4  35  35  21  46  2  1 
Padilla      rf  .239  .314  .327 109 376  90 15  0  6  50  38  38  79 13  9 
Hanahan      2b  .236  .321  .292  94 288  68 11  1  1  40  20  34  66 10  4 
Ruiz         c   .227  .264  .353  94 317  72 11  1  9  33  33  14  37  5  4 
Perez#       3b  .245  .301  .384 104 237  58 16  1  5  28  26  19  50  0  1 
Richardson   3b  .211  .255  .341  85 308  65 10  0 10  29  34  16  97  1  2 
Offerman#    2b  .222  .324  .335  86 212  47 13  1  3  26  20  33  38  3  4 
Hinch        c   .217  .279  .318  81 258  56 12  1  4  22  26  20  56  0  1 
Pratt        c   .248  .355  .385  42 117  29  7  0  3  13  15  17  41  0  0