Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

If I wanted to make this article easier to write, I could look up what I wrote last year, or the year before that, and cut and paste it into this year's article. The cast of characters has changed, but the basic principles by which the Pittsburgh franchise has been run under the regime of Kevin McClatchy and the Nuttings haven’t changed at all. In nearly every interview that David Littlefield gives, some mention is made of the team’s financial limitations. In nearly every decision that the team makes, the impact on the bottom line plays a major role. And the team is still looking for "talented but low-priced veterans," although this year’s cast includes some players (Matt Lawton, Mark Redman) whose price tag is no doubt higher than McClatchy thinks it should be.

I suppose that the team’s management should be commended to some extent for keeping the bottom from falling out over the past few years, as the Pirates have at least not been an embarrassment on the field, managing to stay in the 70-75 win range. But there are some signs that suggest that if the Pirates continue down the same old path, they won’t be able to maintain even that level of "success."

The biggest black cloud on the horizon is the changing ownership situation in Milwaukee and Cincinnati. Along with the Pirates, those two teams have been the NL Central poster children for teams struggling to stay afloat under ownership that has a limited ability to invest in the team. But the Brewers were recently sold, and the majority owners of the Reds are putting their share of the team up for sale. New ownership typically brings a fresh outlook and (more importantly) a fresh infusion of cash into the team. While neither the Brewers nor the Reds are going to be confused with the Yankees, both teams could soon have freedom to keep their younger talent – as an example, the Brewers have signed Ben Sheets to a long-term deal since the new owners took over. The Pirates, meanwhile, are still in a position where they tell their best young players – Oliver Perez and Jason Bay – that they have a budget for players of their experience, and by golly, no matter how good they are, the team isn’t going to bust that budget for them.

Once the Reds’ new ownership is in place, there’s a good chance the Pirates under the McClatchy/Nutting ownership team will find themselves in the position that the Washington Nationals currently occupy in the NL East, as the only team in the division that is not able to make even a reasonable investment in talented players because the ownership won’t budge on the budget. Eventually, I think that those pressures will force McClatchy and the Nuttings to make a decision – either they invest more in the team, or they find new owners who will. For the sake of the long-term future of baseball in Pittsburgh, I hope that choice comes sooner rather than later.

Now that I’ve got the editorial comment out of the way, let’s take a look at the team’s probable on-field lineup for 2005:

Jason Kendall’s Pittsburgh career is over. He leaves as arguably the best catcher that the Pirates have ever had in their history, but he probably won’t be remembered for what he did on the field. Rather, he’ll be remembered for the 6 year, $60 million contract that he signed following the 2000 season, which turned him into the poster boy for overpriced players in Pittsburgh. Like Alex Rodriguez’s deal in Texas, Kendall’s contract has been used by management and the media as an excuse for the team’s inability to being in players, and to trade away other high-priced players, even as Kendall continued to be one of the most productive hitters on the Pirates and one of the most productive catchers in the NL.

Without Kendall, the Pirates will turn to the tandem of 40-year-old Benito Santiago and 26-year-old Humberto Cota. Santiago was picked up from Kansas City in exchange for low-level pitching prospect Leo Nunez, and was brought in expressly for the purpose of mentoring Cota and the Bucs’ young pitchers – a skill that Kendall was reported to have lacked. In almost every discussion of Santiago that comes out of Pirates’ camp, you hear about his mentoring skills. Santiago’s enjoyed a bit of a late-career renaissance, being around league-average offensively the last couple of years. However, he played in only 49 games last year before his season was terminated by a broken left hand, he IS 40 years old, and there have been steroid rumors buzzing around him. ZIPS projects him to fall off the cliff this year; I don’t think he’ll fall quite that far, especially if the Pirates keep his playing time under control.

Cota sat on the bench behind Kendall last year, getting into just 36 games and coming to the plate just 68 times. He did hit five homeruns in those brief appearances, though, and he does appear to have a bit of pop in his bat; he could very well be in the 10-15 HR range as a regular. His strikeout rate is too high, and he hasn’t had anything close to consistent playing time since 2002; you have to be concerned about whether or not his bat has stagnated. ZIPS seems to me to be a bit on the low side.

I’d kind of like to see the Pirates do something similar with these two as the Brewers have done under Ned Yost – assign them certain pitchers with whom to work, perhaps using Cota with Kip Wells and Mark Redman and Santiago with the other starters. Regardless of how the Pirates deploy their catchers, there’s likely to be a significant offensive dropoff here.

Catcher is the one position in the system in which the Pirates are deep (deep enough to release former catcher-of-the-future JR House, who would have been out for the entire season anyway and had fallen on the depth chart even before getting hurt). At AAA, there’s Ryan Doumit and Ron Paulino; further down the chain, there’s 2003 draftee Steve Lerud and 2004 #1 and local boy Neil Walker. Walker’s obviously the new catcher-of-the-future, but he’s at least three years away. I think Cota will eventually do an adequate job filling in until one of the prospects steps up.

Craig Wilson, 28, hit like an All-Star for two months, apparently vindicating many Pirate fans who had been screaming for him to play more for two years, and was at .355/.433/.656 on June 1. Then he suddenly stopped hitting – more or less coincidentally with his move into the cleanup slot and the return of Jason Bay, which turned him into a nomad on the field – and his numbers plummeted, apparently vindicating the concerns expressed by manager Lloyd McClendon about possible "overexposure". He wound up hitting a "disappointing" .264/.354/.499 overall. It should be pretty obvious that Wilson is neither as good as his first two months nor as bad as his last four months.

Wilson is not McClendon’s favorite player, because he’s the type who likes to go about his business, not showing a lot of emotion on the field. He’s also not a good defensive player, and probably hurts the team less defensively with the glove at 1B than he does anywhere else. He’ll start the season there, and probably see most of his playing time there. I’m inclined to think that his ZIPS projection is more or less right on the money – I don’t see much potential for improvement over his full-season 2004 numbers. He’s a nice role player on a good team, but it says something about the state of the team that he has to carry a major part of the offensive load.

The Pirates would like to see 29-year-old Daryle Ward return to his early-season form of 2004, when he came up on May 11 and hit.375/.418/.722 in his first 3 weeks with the team. That stretch included a May 26 game against St. Louis when he hit for the cycle, joining his father Gary as the only father-son team to do so. Like Wilson, though, he cooled off very quickly, and was down to .276/.309/.521 when he got hurt in late June, missing nearly two months. He continued to struggle on his return, and wound up hitting .249/.305/.474 overall. The good thing about Ward is that he makes pretty consistent contact when he does swing, not striking out very much at all; the bad thing is that, although he looks like a power hitter, he doesn’t drive the ball consistently enough to actually be one. Like Wilson, I think his performance of 2005 is likely to be about the same as his performance in 2004.

If Ward falters, power-hitting prospect Brad Eldred might get a shot at some point. Eldred, who turns 25 in July, destroyed Carolina League pitchers to the tune of .310/.397/.550 and then after a slow start at AA hit .279/.329/.687 with 17 HRs in just 39 games. His strikeout rate (148 in just over 500 PAs at the two levels) is a big concern, but the power from the left side is something that the Pirates don’t have and sorely need.

I am a big Jose Castillo fan. I was pleasantly surprised when the Pirates kept him on the roster in 2004, even more surprised when he grabbed the starting job away from Bobby Hill, and even more surprised when he remained on the roster and (usually) in the lineup when he went through a mid-summer slump that dropped his batting average into the .230s. He recovered to finish at .256/.298/.368. Like many rookie infielders, his defensive stats weren’t especially good; however, he was converting to a new position (he played SS in the minors), and had to learn the hitters and the 2B pivot at the same time. I’ve seen Castillo a lot in the minors, and I think he has sound instincts and good range; he will eventually be more than adequate at 2B. I also think he’ll hit, eventually; he’s got medium-range power and his K rates improved throughout his minor league career and in the latter part of last season in the majors. He did look lost at the plate a lot last year, but he’s just 23 (24 in May) and still learning. I’ve also heard a lot of positive reports about his work ethic, which may be why McClendon kept him around. There has been some talk about moving Castillo to 3B; I hope that does not happen, as I think he’ll be a very good middle infielder and if finances eventually force the Pirates to move Jack Wilson, a capable SS replacement. I expect to see significant improvement at the plate and in the field from Castillo this year; ZIPS seems to me to be on the low side.

The Pirates have had a 3B hole since trading Aramis Ramirez in 2003 for financial reasons. Jose Hernandez wasn’t the answer, nor was Chris Stynes (not that anyone should have expected either to be any sort of answer). The Pirates tried Rob Mackowiak and Bobby Hill there, but never really thought of either player as a long-term answer. David Wright’s emergence in Queens made Wigginton expendable, and when it became necessary for the Pirates to unload Kris Benson’s contract, and Littlefield couldn’t pry any better prospects loose from anyone else, he settled for Wigginton and pitching prospect Matt Peterson.

Wigginton, 27, is not particularly good defensively at 3B, and did not hit well for the Pirates after coming over (.220/.306/.341). He’s been up and down in the majors, mixing pretty good part-season performances with the Mets in 2002 and 2004 with a weak full-season effort in 2003 and the poor post-trade numbers. ZIPS might be a little pessimistic, but that projected performance will still be a lot better than the Bucs got out of 3B last year..

Probably the biggest positive thing that happened for the Pirates in 2004, Jack Wilson got off to a .350/.367/.515 start through the end of May, while still getting the usual raves for his fielding at SS. Wilson did fall off from those levels as he struggled through July and August, but finished strongly to close at .308/.335/.459 and collect over 200 hits, becoming the first Bucco shortstop since Honus Wagner in 1908 to reach that plateau. Wilson also participated in 129 double plays, also a franchise record for shortstops, surpassing Gene Alley’s 128 in 1966, as the Pirates led the NL with 189 DPs.

The 27-YO Wilson is a fan favorite, and a management favorite for his attitude and work ethic. I think Wilson’s improvement at the plate is real. He did finish strong, and his isolated power numbers (mostly doubles) held up very well even during his mid-summer slump. While a decline from 2004 is likely, I think Wilson’s niche is in the .280-.290 range, with enough doubles to lift his SLG into the .420-.430 range. It would be nice if he could boost his OBP as well; as it stands he has to be over .300 for his OBP to be close to barely acceptable. But the package is a good one; in my opinion, Wilson’s moved into the upper half of NL shortstops.

Wilson is signed through 2006, at a total of $8 million for two years. Next year, he could be a test case for the McClatchy/Nutting regime’s desire to open the purse strings. The Pirates have other relatively cheap middle infield options on the team right now – Castillo, Hill, Freddy Sanchez – and if Wilson has another year in 2005 like he did in 2004, he’s going to be very expensive to re-sign. But his popularity in Pittsburgh is such that the team has a powerful incentive to keep him around. If we start hearing Jack Wilson’s name in trade rumors next year, that will tell us a lot about this management team’s ability to invest in the future.

David Littlefield, I’m sure, feels very good about snagging Bay and Oliver Perez for Brian Giles’s contract. Bay, 26, is the reigning NL Rookie of the Year – the first in Pittsburgh franchise history. He hit .282/.358/.550 for the Pirates last year, belting 26 HRs despite missing the first month of the season and having to be spotted carefully for about a month after that. The nagging questions about Bay are (a) health – he is currently out with a bone bruise in his wrist, and he’s had shoulder problems in the past and (b) his strikeout rate – 129 Ks in ~470 PAs is a concern. ZIPS sees a decline for Bay, and I think that projection is about right, maybe a tad optimistic on OBP. If healthy, Bay will open in left field. He’s solid defensively there.

Tike Redman is the incumbent center fielder, but his position is shaky at best. If Bay is healthy, and Ward hits well this spring, there has been some talk of shifting Bay to CF and putting Craig Wilson in LF. Redman, who turns 27 in April, hit .280/.310/.374 last year, but hit much better after being moved out of the leadoff spot (where he hit just .231/.250/.301). On defense, he drives people crazy with the angles and jumps that he gets, but his defensive numbers have been pretty good. Like many players on this team, he’s been asked to be a regular when his talents might better be suited to being a role player off the bench. I think he’ll keep the CF job and probably hit in about the same range as he did last year.

Lawton was picked up from Cleveland for Arthur Rhodes in a swap-of-expensive-contracts move. Lawton will make $7.25 million in 2005, more than any other Pirate. At age 33, he’s a serviceable defensive right fielder who hit .277/.366/.421 last year and I think should do about the same this year. The plan is for him to replace Kendall as the leadoff hitter.

Bay’s injury could open up some playing time for rookie OF Nate McLouth if Bay's wrist proves to be a problem and the Pirates wind up short-handed in the outfield. The 24-YO McLouth was just sent down to minor league camp, but he’s a pretty good prospect. He doesn’t hit for a great deal of power, but stings line drives all over the place, had 40 doubles in AA in 2004, runs well, can play CF, and gets on base at a good clip. He also bats left-handed, which is considered to be an asset in PNC Park.

The Pirates are going to carry 12 pitchers, leaving room for five bench players. One of those bench players will be whichever one of Santiago/Cota is not catching, and Ward will likely be one of the other ones. The competition for the other bench positions appears to be between Bobby Hill, Freddy Sanchez, Rob Mackowiak, and Ben Grieve.

Hill, who will be 27 in April, played 2B and 3B and was one of the Bucs’ top pinch-hitters in 2005. He hit .266/.353/.339 overall, and .267/.357/.433 as a pinch-hitter. He’s supposedly a defensive liability, but he seems to be OK overall at both 2B and 3B.

Sanchez, who is also 27, came over from Boston in 2003 in the followup deal in which the Bucs’ original deal for Brandon Lyon was reversed and the Bucs also moved Jeff Suppan. Sanchez has yet to do anything for Pittsburgh, spending much of his time battling various injuries. With Jack Wilson recuperating from an appendectomy, he’s been seeing a lot of early time at SS for the Bucs, and if he makes the team he’ll be the #1 backup there. He and Hill will also likely share playing time backing up Castillo and Wigginton at 2B and 3B. I don’t think he’ll ever achieve the expectations laid on him after he smoked the ball for a half-season at Pawtucket in 2003, and I’d much rather have Castillo’s future than Sanchez’s, but he’s a quite serviceable backup infielder, especially since he can handle SS.

Mackowiak, like Jack Wilson, is a fan and management favorite. He’s going to be 29 in June, and last season was a semi-regular, seeing time at 3B, 2B, CF, and RF and hitting .246/.319/.420. With Lawton’s arrival and Wigginton around for the full season, he probably won’t get .500 PAs again. Mackowiak has an advantage over Grieve for a spot in that he can play CF; the only other outfielder likely to make the Opening Day roster who can play there when Redman doesn’t is Bay, and the Pirates have given no indication that that want Bay to be spending much time there.

Grieve, who turns 29 in May, spent much of last season with Milwaukee before being sent to the Cubs for the stretch drive. He began the season as a starter in RF against RHP, platooning with Brady Clark, but his defensive deficiencies and his unwillingness to make adjustments at the plate drove manager Ned Yost crazy, and eventually drove Grieve to the bench. Grieve’s strength is his ability to get on base, but he’s limited to station-to-station ball once he gets there, since he cannot run at all. He’d be much better served in the AL, where he can DH against RHP a couple of times a week. In the NL, his utility is limited because he can’t run and he’s a liability everywhere you put him in the field. At this stage, he’s very much a long shot to make the roster.

Jose Bautista left the Pirates in Rule 5 last year to being an odyssey that took him to Baltimore, Tampa, and Kansas City before he came back to Pittsburgh in an adjunct to the Benson deal which sent Justin Huber from the Mets to the Royals. He played 3B and the OF in the majors last year, getting only 96 PAs. Bautista never played above Class A before 2004, and didn’t fare too well there in 2003. He’s basically going to be starting over again in the minors in 2005, with little chance of being in the majors. The Pirates look at him as a possible 3B of the future, especially since they have very little else in the system, but I don’t see him as very likely to be able to contribute much before the end of next season, if then. He’s very much like former Pirate Freddy Garcia, who was also a Rule 5 draftee and never really recovered from the loss of a development year.

None of the other roster or non-roster players in camp look like they have much chance to be on the team. The Pirates do have a couple of stathead favorites (Howie Clark, Jon Nunnally, and Graham Koonce) around, but none are real roster candidates.

The Pirates were 13th in the National League in scoring runs in 2004, crossing the plate just 680 times. Most of the team does a lousy job of getting on base; they’ve lost the number one player at getting on base (Kendall), and his replacement in the leadoff spot (Lawton) isn’t quite as good at getting on base as Kendall was. There’s a large falloff likely at catcher. Of the regulars, Castillo and Wigginton look likely to do better than they did for Pittsburgh last year. Lawton is RF is probably going to be a net gain over the players that the Pirates used out there last year, and the bench is probably going to be better. Some falloff is likely from the Wilsons and Bay, and Redman should be about the same.

At best, I see this as a 700-run offense, with the likely falloff at catcher nearly negating any likely improvements. If age catches up to Santiago and Lawton, and Craig Wilson’s slump over the last four months is a real indicator of a performance level change, then it could be worse.

There are a lot more question marks in this rotation than just the identity of the fifth starter. To some extent, every one of the other four pitchers comes with a big question mark as well.

Wells, 28 in April, was the nominal ace of the staff heading into 2004, following a breakout year in 2003 in which he finished 10-9 with a 3.28 ERA, good for 11th in the National League. He wasn’t quite as fortunate in 2004, being plagued by poor run support, elbow and finger problems, and finished 5-7 with a 4.56 ERA. He underwent offseason surgery to relieve a carpal tunnel problem in his right middle finger. Wells has also had some stiffness in his right arm during this spring training, missing one start, but came back with a solid outing against Atlanta. He has an excellent low-to-mid-90s fastball (when healthy) and outstanding breaking stuff, but needs to sharpen his command; his walk rate jumped by 3/4 of a walk per nine innings in 2004, although some of that may have been due to the finger problem. I’d expect Wells, if healthy, to bounce back to something close to his 2003 form, with an ERA in the mid-3s or so; ZIPS is extremely pessimistic here. If he does, he could be a trade candidate, because he’s about to start his fifth full season in the majors, and is represented by Scott Boras, so he won’t be cheap to sign beyond 2005 (he’s scheduled to make $3.175 million this year and can earn another $600K in incentive bonuses for pitching at least 210 innings).

Perez, who won’t turn 24 until August, was expected to be the team’s Opening Day starter. However, he just made his spring training debut after being sidelined with stiffness in his left shoulder (supposedly because he "slept on it funny"), and fared none too well in that outing. Perez’s baseball-reference comps, while they do include Sandy Koufax, also include guys like Pete Falcone, Steve Trout, Balor Moore, and Mike Witt. Moore might be the most interesting comp. At age 21, he started 22 times for the Expos, going 9-9 with a 3.47 ERA and a 161/59 K/BB ratio in 147 2/3 innings, and there were a fair number of references to him as the "next Koufax". He spent a full season with the Expos the following year, tossing 176 1/3 innings, but his walk rate skyrocketed and he went 7-16 with a 4.49 ERA. Then he got hurt, which effective put an end to his major league career, although he did resurface later with the Blue Jays. Perez’s overall numbers are better than Moore’s, but his walk rate is higher. Perez has outstanding pitches, topped by a fastball that reaches into the upper 90s and a couple of sliders that allow him to be effective against righties as well as lefties. ZIPS is pretty pessimistic about his 2005 season, seeing his ERA increase by nearly a run. If he’s healthy, he should beat that projection.

Redman, 31, was acquired from Oakland in the Kendall deal, and the Pirates expect him to be their #3 starter. He did not do as well for Oakland as the A’s had hoped in 2004, although his season wasn’t all that bad, either – he generally kept the A’s in most of the games that he started, but when he was bad, he was really, really bad. I don’t think his final 11-12, 4.71 line is necessarily an accurate reflection of how he pitched. Redman doesn’t throw particular hard (mid-to-upper-80s on his heater), but he keeps the batters off stride with a good changeup and decent breaking pitches. I think of him as a lower-case version of Jamie Moyer (who, oddly enough, is #2 on his comp list at baseball-reference). ZIPS has him pegged just about where I do. I swear that if I read one more comment about Redman along the lines of "the move back to the NL should help him", I’ll throw something at the monitor.

Fogg, 28, has probably done about as much with his talent as could have been expected. There are days where he doesn’t look like he should be in the majors at all. He’s got an upper-80s fastball and a decent enough curveball, but his command of both pitches is inconsistent. When everything is working right, he can be pretty tough – it’s just a rare day when everything is working right. He was the Pirates’ second-best starter after the All-Star break last year, going 5-3 with a 3.32 ERA in 15 post-break starts. He signed a one-year deal for around $2 million after becoming arbitration eligible for the first time, and he typically pitches well enough so that he’s likely to cost the team more than he’s worth very soon. ZIPS, again, has him pegged about where I do.

The fifth starter race is between David Williams, Ryan Vogelsong, and non-roster invitee Albie Lopez. At this point, Williams appears to have the edge, in part because he’s a left-hander and in part because he’s pitched well in spring training so far. The 26-YO Williams came up in 2001 and pitched quite well in 18 starts and four relief outings, posting a 3.71 ERA although going only 3-7. He began 2002 in the Bucs’ rotation, but lasted only nine starts before going down with a torn labrum, and didn’t get back to the big club until August of 2004. Williams started six times in September, with three good efforts and three so-so outings, and finished 2-3 overall with a 4.42 ERA. When healthy, Williams sports an upper-80s fastball and a big breaking curve, with pretty good control of both. The ZIPS projection for him seems reasonable, maybe a tad pessimistic; I don’t see him as a big breakout candidate, but an ERA in the low 4s is not out of the question.

Vogelsong, who’ll be 28 in July and went to Kutztown State in east-central Pennsylvania, baffles everyone. On paper, he looks like a quality starter, with a low-90s fastball, and solid hard slider and curveball, and a changeup that fades away from right-handed hitters. He’s adding a splitter to his repertoire this spring, too. But he is about as maddening a pitcher as you’d ever want to watch, capable of throwing two-hit ball over seven innings (as he did against the Mets in September) and then coming back and being lit up for seven runs without retiring anyone the next time out (as he did against the Reds). It is tremendously frustrating to watch him, because you see the talent and wonder why he’s not getting the results. Frankly, I think he’s as likely to become the next Todd Van Poppel as he is to become a serviceable major league pitcher.

The guy who might have a chance to knock out Williams and Vogelsong is Albie Lopez. Lopez was released in 2003 by the Royals after a series of poor performances that were not aided by the fact that he was out of shape, and after some soul-searching, he decided to get himself back into top physical condition before attempting a comeback. He spent the 2004 season out of baseball, losing 30 pounds and working with a personal trainer to add muscle. Both Lloyd McClendon (who played with Lopez) and player development director Brian Graham (who managed him in the minors) knew of him, and when they spoke with him and saw what he had done, the Bucs decided to take a flyer and sign him to a minor-league deal. He’s pitched five innings so far, allowing just one run and fanning four. Lopez did a decent job as a starter/reliever for Tampa in 2000, and pitched decently in 13 starts for Arizona the following year after a midseason trade, tossing two shutouts for the Snakes, although he didn’t contribute much in the postseason. The Pirates have a history of finding guys like Lopez who can at least help the bullpen out in middle relief, and while I think he’s probably a long shot to win the fifth starter’s job, he could join the line of people like Brian Boehringer and Salmon Torres who have had their careers revived once they joined the Bucs’ pen.

Which Mesa is going to show up for 2005? Will the Pirates get the one who converted 43 of 48 save opportunities in 2004, including his first 18 as a Pirate, earning a $2.5 million deal for 2005 – or the one who lost his closer job and threw a tantrum about it after posting a 6.52 ERA for the Phillies in 2003? Mesa, who will be 39 in May, has been effective in three of the last four seasons (the lone exception being 2003), he likes being with the Pirates, and has also, like Benito Santiago, reportedly been very helpful with the younger pitchers. His strikeout rate has been dropping precipitously, though – last year he fanned just 37 in 69 1/3 innings, the lowest rate he’s had since 1992 – and after being outstanding for the first two months he was up-and-down for the rest of the season. I don’t think he’ll fall off quite as far as ZIPS does, but I think he will fall off some, and by the end of the season the Pirates will be ready to bid him adieu.

As noted, the Pirates will be carrying 12 pitchers, leaving six bullpen slots, of which only two are uncertain. Lloyd McClendon would like to carry three right-handers and three left-handers, but if Williams makes the starting rotation, it’s possible that he’ll be forced to go with just two lefties in the bullpen, since the only other left-handed bullpen candidate is Mike Johnston, who is a real longshot to make the squad out of camp.

As noted above, Torres, who just turned 33, has resurrected his career since coming to the Pirates’ organization in 2002. In 1997, Torres walked away from the game after pitching ineffectively for the Mariners and Expos. In 2001, he decided to attempt a comeback, and went to Korea for a year. The Pirates signed him to a minor league deal prior to 2002, and the move paid quick dividends when Torres was called up and gave the Bucs five very good starts. In 2003, splitting his time between starting and relieving, he was 7-5 with a 4.76 ERA, with most of his good outings coming out of the pen. The Pirates moved him to relief full-time in 2004, and he was outstanding as Mesa’s primary setup man, pitching in 84 games and going 7-7 with a 2.64 ERA. The Bucs rewarded him with a two-year deal in the offseason. ZIPS is off for him, because it doesn’t understand that he’s now a full-time reliever. Torres was always miscast as a starter; he is a classic fastball/slider pitcher without another pitch to complement them. He’s in the ideal role for his talents, and I don’t foresee a dropoff from 2004.

Gonzalez, 27 in May, is the closer-in-waiting. It’s easy to forget now that the Pirates gave Gonzalez to the Red Sox in 2003 in the ill-fated Brandon Lyon deal, and only got him back when Lyon’s physical revealed a shoulder injury and the Red Sox reworked the deal to take Lyon off the Bucs’ hands. Like Torres, Gonzalez is a fastball/slider pitcher best suited for a relief role. It tooks six years of mixed results in the Bucs’ farm system for the Pirates to catch on to that possibility, but once they did so, Gonzalez rose to the majors quickly. Last year, he fanned 55 and allowed just six free passes in 43 1/3 innings at the major league level, posting a 1.25 ERA and going 3-1 with a save. There are those who think the Pirates would have been better served by making Gonzalez the closer and letting Mesa go, but I think it makes sense to let Gonzalez set up for another year before pushing him into the closer role.

Grabow is the second lefty in the pen, the guy who is usually used when a lefty is needed in middle relief or as a LOOGY. The 26-YO Grabow was a starter throughout most of his minor league career, but moved to the bullpen as the Pirates starting bringing higher draft picks like Sean Burnett and John VanBenschoten through the system. Grabow was only moderately successful as a reliever, but the Bucs brought him up in 2003 and kept him on the roster all season in 2004. Lloyd McClendon used him 68 times in 2004, and after a decent enough start he struggled after the All-Star break, winding up with a 2-5 record, one save, and a 5.11 ERA. Grabow has a low-90s fastball and a sharp-breaking curve which he uses to good effect, but he wore down visibly as the season went on. He might be better used as a long reliever/spot starter rather than as a LOOGY-type reliever, but the Pirates don’t really have that luxury.

Brian Meadows came to the Bucs in 2002 after bouncing from Florida (where he was a back-end-of-the-rotation starter) to San Diego to Kansas City. He looked like he was on his way out of the majors, but the Pirates have used him pretty effectively as a middle reliever the last three seasons. He throws a high-80s fastball, and a cut fastball which he uses as a breaking pitch, since his curveball is average at best. Meadows was 2-4 with a 3.58 ERA in 68 games out of the pen in 2004, and I would expect more of the same in 2005.

The other two spots are open. Chances are that Vogelsong and either Williams or Lopez will claim the remaining two spots, depending on how the fifth starting job comes out. Mike Johnston could get a job if Williams starts and McClendon decides to keep a third lefty, but Johnston has been hit around this spring and isn’t likely to stick around if he doesn’t start getting people out. Rick White is also in the mix. Ian Snell is likely to be a starter in AAA, but could work his way into the bullpen mix later in the year; the Pirates don’t think he has the stamina to be a starter over the long term.

The Pirates allowed 744 runs in 2004, which ranked 8th overall in the National League. Wells (if healthy) is likely to pitch better than he did in 2004, Perez (if healthy) is a rising star but will likely slip some, and Fogg, Redman, and Williams should provide more than the back end of the rotation did in 2004. The rotation starters for the Pirates in 2004 allowed 506 runs last year; I can see them shaving about 20-30 runs from that total in 2005. The bullpen, when all is said and done, will probably perform at about the same level in ’05 as they did in ‘04 – so I’d peg the Bucs as allowing somewhere between 715 and 725 runs in 2005.

One big concern is the extent to which McClendon works the bullpen. Like his managerial mentor, Tony LaRussa, McClendon is big on matchups; he’s been known to use five and six pitchers in games where his team has a four or five-run lead just to get the right set of matchups. Torres, Grabow, and Meadows, in particular, pitched a lot more frequently than they ever had in their careers before 2004. While the Pirates have been particularly good at finding pitchers like Meadows, Torres, Brian Boehringer, etc., they haven’t gotten more than a year or two of quality pitching out of any of them. The stock response to that, of course, is for the starters to go deeper into games. But to this point, only Wells and Perez (when healthy) have shown the ability to do that consistently, and Fogg, in particular, tends to wear down after about five innings. If the workload catches up to the middle relievers, the Bucs will be in a lot of trouble.

The Pirates were 72-89 in 2004. If everything breaks right, they’re not that far from being a .500 team. But I’ve said the same thing for several years in a row now – as Rocky said to Bullwinkle, "That trick never works".

Sure, Wells could return to 2003 form, and Perez could stay healthy and pitch as he did in 2004, and Redman could be the pitcher that he was in 2002. Sure, Craig and Jack Wilson could hit like they did in April and May of last year, and Santiago could find the fountain of youth, and Castillo could break out and Wigginton could be the 2002 version and Ward the May 2004 version and so on and so on… And if all of that happens, guess what? The Pirates will still be a .500 team at best.

And guess what else? All of that ISN’T going to happen. The Pirates will likely muddle along at a 70-75 win pace all year, and we’ll start hearing about how Lawton or Santiago or Wigginton or Mesa the Wilsons have been "a disappointment", and how the team needs to find a couple of "talented but low-priced veterans" in the offseason, and Kevin McClatchy will issue yet another broadside about how the changing economic conditions make it difficult to compete. And the music will continue to play on in Pittsburgh, as the dream of a winning season fades away for the 13th consecutive year, with no relief in sight.

2005 ZiPS Projections

Name          ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER   BB    K  HR 
Gonzalez*    3.36   3   1  58   0    67.0   55   25   27   75   4 
Perez*       3.84   9   8  25  24   171.0  146   73   66  205  21 
Mallette     4.09   2   1  43   0    44.0   41   20   16   39   5 
Roa          4.20   7   6  36  15   120.0  132   56   24   66  13 
Grabow*      4.20   4   5  56   5    90.0   88   42   30   81  11 
Olsen        4.25   4   4  17  12    72.0   72   34   25   52   8 
Redman*      4.31  11  12  31  31   192.0  206   92   59  115  18 
Higgins      4.34   3   4  42   0    58.0   60   28   19   45   7 
Torres       4.40   7   7  50  16   141.0  149   69   43   95  16 
Burnett*     4.50   8  10  25  25   136.0  153   68   43   60  11 
Duke*        4.50   8  10  26  26   138.0  142   69   50  103  16 
White        4.50   4   5  61   0    80.0   85   40   26   52   9 
Corey        4.57   3   4  63   0    69.0   66   35   33   65   8 
Wells        4.60   9  10  29  29   174.0  177   89   71  132  19 
Mesa         4.63   4   5  69   0    68.0   71   35   29   42   6 
Williams*    4.69   5   6  25  22   119.0  123   62   44   93  16 
Snell        4.76   8  10  28  27   153.0  159   81   58  120  21 
Meadows      4.80   2   3  54   3    75.0   86   40   16   43  12 
Jacobsen     4.97   5   9  24  24   134.0  151   74   47   71  17 
Fogg         4.98   8  13  31  31   170.0  192   94   60   88  21 
Reith        5.08   5   9  42  12   108.0  115   61   48   73  14 
Connolly*    5.09   5   8  23  22   115.0  124   65   52   79  15 
Bullinger    5.12   2   3  57   0    65.0   76   37   19   33  10 
Vogelsong    5.14   7  11  29  27   140.0  146   80   66  107  19 
Enochs       5.26   5  10  34  18   125.0  134   73   60   79  16 
Miller       5.29   4   6  41   3    68.0   69   40   35   57  10 
van Bensch   5.40   6  11  28  27   145.0  153   87   79  105  19 
Johnston*    5.40   2   4  45   0    55.0   57   33   34   40   6 
McDade       5.45   3   5  38   3    76.0   88   46   28   41  12 
Kaye         5.54   4   5  47   0    65.0   64   40   45   42   6 
Reid         5.63   4   7  31  18   120.0  138   75   38   84  26 
Bradley      5.64   3   5  17  17    83.0   90   52   50   53  10 
Bullington   5.72   6  13  26  25   137.0  159   87   57   85  25 
Stewart*     5.91   4  10  21  21   105.0  113   69   66   78  16 
Chiavacci    5.97   4   8  30  15   110.0  116   73   73   83  16 
Peterson     6.17   4  11  24  23   124.0  137   85   76   86  21 
Candelario   6.30   2   5  33   8    80.0   88   56   54   55  13 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Wilson       rf  .267  .361  .496 146 490 131 29  4 25  79  78  48 137  2  2 
Bay          lf  .286  .375  .524 125 433 124 22  3 25  71  77  57 111 11  6 
Wilson       ss  .286  .326  .413 156 623 178 33  8 10  75  64  36  67  6  4 
Lawton*      lf  .270  .364  .414 132 512 138 23  0 17  86  71  68  63 16  9 
Wigginton    3b  .264  .336  .424 151 538 142 35  3 15  66  69  55  87  8  2 
Koonce*      1b  .238  .363  .416 125 450 107 23  0 19  60  63  87 121  0  0 
Redman*      cf  .287  .332  .386 151 557 160 22  6  7  71  52  35  49 21 10 
McLouth*     cf  .282  .339  .394 130 475 134 29  3  6  79  49  38  65 30 14 
Mackowiak*   3b  .248  .326  .410 150 459 114 21  4 15  58  61  49 108 11  4 
Eldred       1b  .237  .284  .456 129 447 106 21  1 25  60  78  27 114  3  2 
Duffy*       cf  .273  .323  .357 128 488 133 20  3  5  77  41  33  83 21 16 
Sadler       rf  .257  .305  .408 125 448 115 25  2 13  57  56  28  92 13  9 
Hill#        2b  .254  .342  .369 130 409 104 20  3  7  56  41  48  70  9  6 
Clark*       3b  .277  .351  .387 112 382 106 22  1  6  52  40  41  32  1  2 
Grieve*      rf  .256  .363  .423 116 324  83 21  0 11  38  44  54  79  3  1 
Castillo     2b  .267  .318  .365 132 446 119 17  3  7  56  48  32  76  7  5 
Ward*        1b  .257  .309  .433 113 381  98 23  1 14  40  58  27  60  0  1 
Davis#       cf  .256  .315  .325 130 477 122 18  3  3  72  34  38  62 32 15 
Sanchez      3b  .282  .354  .386  95 337  95 21  1  4  49  36  36  47  8  4 
Thompson*    cf  .267  .318  .328 124 457 122 10  6  2  77  33  31  68 33 19 
Leon         3b  .266  .311  .413 112 368  98 19  1 11  41  47  21  81  1  1 
Nunnally*    lf  .222  .336  .398 102 334  74 13  2 14  49  45  56  97  8  7 
Crespo#      cf  .247  .315  .360 120 392  97 22  2  6  50  37  36  88  9  8 
Paulino      c   .245  .301  .399  93 331  81 16  1 11  41  43  24  56  3  2 
House        c   .267  .320  .458  85 273  73 17  1 11  30  40  19  63  1  1 
Doumit#      c   .233  .291  .371 103 348  81 22  1  8  48  41  27  65  2  0 
Velandia     ss  .210  .286  .325 126 400  84 23  1  7  39  39  40  85  1  3 
Guzman*      3b  .256  .286  .327  96 355  91 16  0  3  32  34  13  35  3  2 
Cota         c   .239  .302  .374  82 289  69 16  1  7  35  33  24  77  2  3 
Santiago     c   .238  .279  .357  93 328  78 14  2  7  33  40  18  58  1  2 
Bautista     3b  .202  .283  .295  59 129  26  7  1  1  16  14  14  43  1  3