Tampa Bay Devil Rays
The Tampa Bay Devil Rays hoped the hiring of Lou Piniella after the 2002 season would mark a first step to respectability. Under Hal McRae, the team exuded failure. The perennial doormats actually regressed under McRae and finished the season with the worst record in its woeful history – 55-106. In trading Randy Winn, its token All-Star, to the Mariners for Piniella and minor league infielder Antonio Perez the Rays appeared to be relieving itself of even its most meager talent in a typically quixotic effort. Surprisingly, the move worked. Piniella brought a unique mix of paternal patience and fiery leadership, and the players responded. Although the team continued its losing ways, ending 2003 with a 63-99 record, the team played with more enthusiasm and hustle – a stark contrast to the uninspired and wooden play of McRae’s tenure.
Most importantly, the Devil Rays were surprisingly competitive – its 68-94 Pythagorean record was 10 full wins better than the season before and they lost remarkable 51 games by one or two runs. Several players – from rookie outfielder Rocco Baldelli to castaway shortstop Julio Lugo to comeback pitcher Jeremi Gonzalez – proved that they could be part of a respectable Devil Ray future.
Even so, the team held doggedly onto many of the same self-defeating habits as previous Devil Rays clubs. The team lacked power and an ability to get on base, finishing last in the league in both walks and home runs. Although the bullpen was an unexpected strength, the starting pitching was in continual disarray. The pitching staff as a whole won a dubious triple crown by leading the league in walks, wild pitches, and hit batsmen – a feat that mirrored Victor Zambrano’s individual performance. For the Devil Rays to ever contend in the AL East, the team will have to find pitchers who can find the strike zone and get batters out. It does not appear that will happen in 2004.
What could likely happen, however, is a consolidation of last year’s gains and another step forward. Although modest in comparison to moves made by their AL East rivals, the Rays’ free agent signings will likely add to their win total. Likewise, the team will probably continue to rush its star minor leaguers – a practice with major drawbacks, but one that typically improves positions filled by below replacement-level stiffs. Look for phenom B. J. Upton and several young starting pitchers to see important playing time in 2004. Piniella has continued to publicly challenge to his team with the prediction that the Devil Rays would finish 2004 out of the basement. For the Devil Rays, that’s a high bar. Although they’re likely to threaten the team record of 70 wins, fourth place may yet be a distant dream.
Position Players:
Catcher – In 2003, Hall nearly managed to duplicate his stat line from 2002, a bad thing since it features an OBP of .295. A bazooka behind the plate (.436 caught stealing percentage), Hall is a popgun standing at it. Now entering his third full year, Hall came up from the minors just when Ichiro Suzuki’s success reenergized the myth that a low-walk, low-strikeout contact hitter could satisfyingly contribute to a winning team. Indeed, Hall should be on winning Hacking Mass rosters for years to come. On the other hand, his arm is a natural wonder and will keep him in the lineup on regular occasions. Brook Fordyce, who didn’t hit much better with Baltimore than Hall did, was signed as a backup. Given Piniella’s no-nonsense approach, it’s doubtful that Fordyce will be warming the bench for long if Hall goes into one of his patented two-month-long slumps at the plate. Hall’s arm helped him earn 10 Win Shares in 2003; Fordyce earned half that many in roughly the same playing time, so Hall will be out there more often than not.
The Cardinals have shown that a no-hit catcher who shuts down a running game can be part of a winning team, so Hall could be part of the future. Pete LaForest, who has kicked around the minors since 1995, had a look at catcher last season. He has developed a pretty good batting eye and had a breakout year in 2003 after finally making it to AAA (.949 OPS in 201 at bats). Though LaForest has always had decent power, it stands to be seen if his year was a fluke.
First Base – Tino Martinez is not great, but he has his merits. He is fine defensively and has the ability to scratch out a league average OPS+. The Cards are picking up most of his salary, so he comes pretty cheaply. Even so, his veteran knowing-how-to-win presence might not keep him from sharing a fair amount at first with Robert Fick, who was signed quietly by the Rays in January. Martinez, Fick, and the recently departed Travis Lee, who signed with Mephistopheles to be Jason Giambi’s defensive caddy, are nearly interchangeable. According to Michael Lichtman’s Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) Lee saved 20 runs for the Devil Rays defensively in 2003, which they won’t get back (only Todd Helton saved more last year among first basemen), but Tino saved seven of his own and he’ll be a more than acceptable pinch-hitter/defensive replacement when he’s not in the lineup. Fick epitomizes defensive averageness at 1B and his bat is identically unimpressive, but his ability to stay healthy makes up the difference between the two.
The man the Rays should have put in at first, Aubrey Huff, will be DHing most of the year. Huff cost the Rays runs defensively at both third and right in 2003, but he usually acquits himself all right at first. Tampa Bay doesn’t have a hot minor league first baseman, so Huff could be the future here if he can convince the team to let him play the field after Martinez and Fick’s one-year contracts are up. Otherwise, a minor league basher like Jonny Gomes (1.146 OPS in the Arizona Fall League after a disappointing stint in AA) might end up at first.
Middle Infield – Although Julio Lugo and Rey Sanchez will both play here, their eventual positions are unsettled. Lugo was expected to move over to second, but as spring training opened Pinella announced that Lugo would likely stay at short, forcing Sanchez to the keystone. The decision may hurt the Rays in the short-term, as Sanchez can only benefit a team if he is playing top-notch defense. Unfortunately, Sanchez is not a good defensive second baseman. Keeping Lugo at shortstop, however, may be an indicator of the Rays’ thoughts on B.J. Upton – a hugely promising hitter who made a minors-leading 56 errors at shortstop last year.
As for Lugo, he’s an underrated fielder (15 runs saved in 116 games last year) who hits for average, isn’t averse to the occasional walk, and can pop one over the wall every couple of weeks. Had the modern day shortstop not been redefined by a spate of all-time greats, and had those all-time greats not chosen all to dance ‘round the A.L. East Maypole, last year could have put him toward the top of his position. As it is, he’s a suitable representation of the Devil Rays, who have moved from being below replacement level to a degree or two above in many respects.
Since saving 34 runs with the glove in 2001, Sanchez has done little. He could never hit and his defense has been on the skids. He was mediocre at second for the Red Sox in 2002 (one run saved in 92 games), and had a feckless year for the Mets in 2003 before being traded to the Mariners and remaining feckless. His .285/.285 line for the season didn’t lower his career averages much. If his defense can recover, he might be a replacement level stopgap until B.J. Upton arrives. In any case, he won’t be a credit to the team; when most casual fans think Devil Rays, they think of players like Sanchez.
Upton is on the Devil Rays’ patented development program, which seeks to get minor leaguers out of places like Charleston and Durham before they can ruin their talent with Carolina moonshine and Josh Hamilton’s ex-girlfriends. It will not likely be long before the 19-year-old Upton is picking short hops off the Tropicana turf. Despite the errors, Upton will have a position waiting for him; he combines good power with an OBP around .400 and blazing speed.
Third Base – Spring training will probably see a three-way battle between a trio of bad hitters, the most intriguing being Fernando Tatis, whom the Rays’ picked up on a minor league deal. Since his age 24 season in 1999, Tatis’s OBP dropped from .404 to .379 to .339 to .303 to .281, the last two of which qualify him to be a traditionally bad Devil Rays third baseman. Geoff Blum and the incumbent, Damian Rolls, will also be competing for playing time. Blum sucked down 420 at bats for the Astros last year, and rewarded Houston with a .674 OPS. Jimy Williams’s fetish for Blum may have put the Astros out of the playoffs and earned Steve Bartman a lifetime of grief. Blum also got UZR credit for saving 2 runs at third, not good for a man rumored to be playing because of his glove. Rolls saved 11 runs defensively in just 67 games at 3B, which could earn him the job again if Tatis doesn’t show some of his younger hitting form. Rolls, however, has a career .302/.359. The team envisions Blum and Rolls teaming up as a lefty-righty platoon, a prospect that probably doesn’t make the AL East high-rollers tremble. Upton, who is reputed to throw at 90 miles per hour, has the arm for 3B if he can’t handle short and LaForest has played there in the minors.
Left Field – "The first step is to measure whatever can easily be measured. That’s OK as far as it goes. The second step is to pretend that whatever cannot be easily measured isn’t very important. That’s dangerous. The third step is to pretend that whatever cannot be easily measured doesn’t exist. That’s suicide." – Daniel Yankelovich
One of the most difficult types of player for sabermetrics to accurately capture is the player with a set of strengths difficult to quantify – the effect of player speed on a game, for example. Carl Crawford is fast. He steals bases at a prodigious clip with a success rate (85 percent) that leads to net gains in run scoring. He was fourth in the AL in triples, has a range factor in left field that puts him above average (last year he saved 9 runs in the field, according to UZR, but gave up two because of a weak arm), bunts for singles, beats out infield hits, disrupts infielders who rush into errors, and disrupts pitchers’ focus when he gets on base. So, is he worth the number of outs a .300 OBP hitter hits into?
Well, of course not – but Crawford’s young (22) and the Rays will see if he’ll develop. But he’s already helped in ways that aren’t readily visible. Texas A & M economist Theodore L. Turocy (who readers of Primate Studies know as Ted T.) found that batters in the two-hole have an OPS 50 points higher when a batter is on first base – by far the most increase of any position in the order, presumably due in part to the speed of the leadoff hitter on base in front of him. A burner like Crawford may make an even bigger impact. Hitting second, Rocco Baldelli’s OPS was .810; when he hit lower down it dropped by more than 100 points.
The effects of speed are so infused into the measurable outcomes. However, that they nearly become invisible. Crawford had 102 strikeouts and 26 walks. His .309 OBP was almost entirely driven by batting average and he was prone to slumps. Although he hit above .300 the last 80 games of the season, he’s not likely to go Tony Gwynn on the strike zone in the near future. The question is whether Crawford’s talent to move fast adds a few points to whatever theoretical model we would propose for team success. Juan Pierre’s speed may have added something to the Marlins’ championship team, but we’re not quite sure how to quantify it, we’re not sure how important it is, and we’re not really sure if it exists.
In any case, the conundrum will be set aside when Joey Gathright gets to town. Gathright’s speed makes Crawford’s look average, plus he has a .400 OBP. Baldelli will move to left to give Gathright a place to play, and so Crawford’s most likely role is trade bait. If Baldelli, Crawford, and Gathright somehow end up in the same outfield, it could easily be the fastest outfield in baseball history.
Center Field – Rocco Baldelli is Tampa’s great hope, and the player who, along with Lou Piniella, has signaled a new day for this woebegotten team. Last season could have been a wreck for Baldelli – Tampa Bay rushed him through three levels of the minors in 2002 then promised him the starting center field job for 2003. Rather than skidding off the fast track, Baldelli broke out in April with numbers that famously put him in the Rookie of the Year race. An August slump and the successes of Angel Berroa and Hideki Matsui ended those hopes, and Baldelli ended with a 95 OPS+. Baldelli has reportedly added 15 pounds in the off-season, which might or might not affect his play positively. Like Crawford, speed is crucial to Baldelli’s game. Even though he bats righty, he can get to first in 3.8 seconds, a time that has drawn comparisons to Ichiro. If he can muscle the ball farther and still run as fast, he could be a terror; if he maintains his mediocre bat and can’t run as well, he’s toast. Last year, Crawford and Baldelli beat out 68 infield hits and forced numerous bobbles and throwing errors. For the Devil Rays to ever contend, Baldelli will absolutely have to develop into a star. For the moment, he seems to have most of the goods (the ability to take a walk being a big exception) and, given Piniella’s history with young stars, appears to have the right manager.
Right Field – Since free agency began in 1976, the ability to predict a team’s winning percentage from its previous season’s performance has plummeted to about .30, which means that, statistically, a playoff berth last year is no reason to get excited about this year. Off-season movement should be the rule when prejudging a team’s 2004 chances. While that’s bad news for the Giants and Marlins and excellent news for the Red Sox and Yankees, it’s moderately positive news for the Devil Rays.
With the signing of Jose Cruz, Jr., the Rays essentially replace the combined efforts of designated out-makers Al Martin (.663 OPS) and Ben Grieve (.716 OPS) in the Devil Rays lineup, which would be a net gain for any team. On top of that, UZR asserts that Cruz was a sparkling 28 runs better than Huff in right field. His 17 Win Shares were better than any other Devil Ray except Huff. Even so, Cruz had some unusual batting splits in 2003. He hit much better in San Francisco’s cavernous park than he did on the road, this despite the fact that PacBell crippled his normally respectable ability to hit left handed. Moving to the more forgiving Tropicana Field might be the cure for his lefty struggles. If so, he could finally have the breakout year everyone has expected of him since he was 23.
Even if he only maintains his performance, he’s decent. When very bad teams fill sucking black holes in the lineup with fairly good players like Cruz, they get better quickly. Any reasonable improvement should flip a fair number of last year’s close losses into the win column.
Several of the Ray’s minor league stars are outfielders. Check the National Enquirer for news on wayward prodigy Josh Hamilton, but he will not be missed if Jonny Gomes and Delmon Young continue to progress. Despite Gomes’ stumble last season in AA, he hit 30 home runs in A ball and appeared to regain his stroke in the AFL last fall. Young is only 18, but he shows the promise typical of an overall No. 1 draft pick – he also played in the AFL and impressed Baseball America enough to earn their label as the league’s second best batting prospect. (Upton was ranked first.) Young may be playing in St. Petersburg before he turns 20.
Designated Hitter – Three players split most of the plate appearances for the Rays last year at DH, including Ben Grieve who finally made Mt. Piniella blow. Grieve’s demeanor in Tampa Bay always resembled a depressed Little Leaguer whose parents were forcing him to play against his will. His slumped walk to the bench after strikeouts, his statue-like batting philosophy, and his Canseco-like defense eventually made him a fan target and drew Piniella’s disrespect. In truth, Grieve’s play at the plate wasn’t horrible during his time with the Rays. Grieve did drop off a bit after leaving Oakland, but his OPS+ stayed at league average and he was among the Rays more productive hitters until last season. Even so, Grieve apparently couldn’t handle the atmosphere and his hitting finally collapsed. A blood clot in his arm ended his season in July, which was merciful for both Grieve and the Rays. He signed a minor league contract with Milwaukee in the off-season, so he will probably continue to look glum for some time.
Al Martin and Aubrey Huff were the other DHs last season, with Huff moving into a relatively full-time role for 2004. Huff, the Rays’ first homegrown star, turned the team record book into an autobiography last season. Among other records, Huff tied or set Devil Ray marks for runs, hits, doubles, homers, walks, and RBI. His 84 extra-base hits exceeded the previous record by 21. It wasn’t a fluke year, either. Huff was a minor league basher who slugged a combined .538 on the farm. His .884 OPS as a rookie in 2002 signaled that a year like 2003 was on its way. This off-season, the Rays smartly signed Huff to a three-year contract, at the end of which time he’ll likely be asking for very large sums.
Bench – The Rays bench went from nothing to something with the signings of Eduardo Perez and Robert Fick. Perez murders lefties, posting a 1.075 OPS against them over the past three years, but he can’t hit righties. Fick has a career 105 OPS+ who tends to hit better against right-handers. The Rays also signed Fred McGriff, Mitch Meluskey and Deivi Cruz to minor league deals. The Rays have said publicly that they don’t expect McGriff to make the roster, but he’s a philanthropist who has given more than $1 million toward Tampa children’s hospitals. (That counts for something in my preview.) He’ll be trying to earn a trade with a good spring training. Meluskey has always had promise as a hitter and hit well for Houston in his only real playing stint in 2000. Shoulder problems have stolen much of his promise, and his in-your-face personality has irritated teammates in the past. Cruz is an offensive detriment and a defensive mediocrity, but he could be backing up the middle infield. Fordyce is the second catcher, while Antonio Perez – the kid traded for Griffey – might be a utility player. Perez can cover the infield and his bat’s not horrible.
Pitching – Although the bullpen was an unexpected strength in 2003, the Rays continued to churn through arms in the rotation. Three of last year’s opening week starters weren’t with the team by the end of July and one more was out of the rotation by the end of August. The team gave phenom Dewon Brazelton a try in May – he posted a 6.89 ERA in 10 starts and was knocked all the way back to A ball. Their second best pitching prospect, Seth McClung, was called up and got hot for a month before needing Tommy John surgery. The Rays got an unexpected performance from the long-lost Jeremi Gonzalez, however, and Victor Zambrano won 12 games. For the most part however, Devil Rays pitching was shark bait – they were 12th in the AL in strikeouts, 12th in homeruns given up, last in walks allowed and broke their own major league record for hit batsmen. This year looks like more of the same.
No. 1 starter - Victor Zambrano is a Jekyll/Hyde type pitcher who sporadically finds the strike zone with his untouchable stuff. The Big Z walked at least 5 batters in 10 of his starts – a good way to get sent to the minors and/or the bullpen, both of which he visited for a few weeks last season. He was back in the rotation for good by the end of May, where he could count on at least three sets of chances at an opposing batter’s hamate bone. He seized the opportunity to become the third in major league history to lead the league in hit batsmen, walks allowed, and wild pitches – a trifecta last won by Brooklyn’s Hal Gregg in 1944. Zambrano mixes the very bad with the very good, however, and when he’s good, he stands with the AL’s elite. His fifth place showing in hits per 9 IP placed him among league leaders like Zito, Hudson, and Mussina. He managed the occasional gem against heavy hitting teams, including shutouts against both Boston and Toronto. (His bullpen also lost an extra-inning shutout against the Yankees.) Gregg followed up his ’44 season with an 18-win season in ’45 in which he walked 120 and sported 108 ERA+. Zambrano’s ERA+ is better than Gregg’s, he walks fewer and will probably have a better career.
No. 2 starter – A newer, better, younger version of the Jim Morris story (Disney’s favorite Devil Ray), Jeremi Gonzalez made the majors at 22 was wrecked by 23, had three surgeries, spent four years pining away, then crawled out of the scrap heap to become the Devil Rays’ ace starter. Although his ERA was sparkling, his run support was exactly equal to it (3.91, sixth lowest RS in the AL), an anomaly that turns winning games into a coin flip (setting aside unearned runs, which weights the coin in the bad direction). His 6-11 record didn’t earn him many headlines, but guys with enough spit and gumption to make the majors after what Gonzalez endured, and who then reel off a career-best season, earn a tip of the cap. He also earned a bigger contract, which he got. He’ll be back in the D-Rays rotation this year.
The rest – A vast competition will be held throughout the season for the final three (or four, or five) spots in the rotation, and it would be no surprise if a few of the Rays minor leaguers force their way into some of those positions. Unless a youngster like Jon Switzer has a spring training ERA under 1.00, however, the Rays will fill out their April rotation from among a motley group of still-unproven rookies, performance-challenged left-handers, and injury reclamations. Doug Waechter, Mark Hendrickson, Damian Moss, and Paul Abbott are among the candidates.
The St. Pete-born Waechter managed to excite the home crowd last September by throwing a two-hit complete game shutout in his first major league start, on his mom’s birthday no less. Considered a lesser prospect than Dewon Brazelton or lefty changeup artist Switzer, Waechter held his own against good-hitting teams in his five starts and compiled a 3.34 ERA. His minor league ERA wasn’t as good as he pitched in the big leagues, so Waechter could be hammered this season. Even so, he’s earned a shot and is penciled into the starting rotation.
The Rays hope NBA veteran Mark Hendrickson can fill their hole at power forward. Hendrickson never stuck on an NBA roster and spent time with the Continental Basketball Association’s Lacrosse Bobcats. A few seasons with Lacrosse and you’re weeping with gratitude to be with the Devil Rays. As a rookie Blue Jay last year, the left-handed Hendrickson gave up nearly 12 hits and struck out less than five batters per 9 innings. Since Hendrickson is a ground-ball pitcher, the Rays blame Hendrickson’s 5.51 ERA on the artificial turf at SkyDome. (The Trop also has turf.) Indeed, Hendrickson pitched horribly at home (7.67 ERA), but he also gave up 11 hits per 9 innings on the road. Righties tagged him for a .916 OPS – collectively higher than Sammy Sosa’s 2003 performance. Hendrickson’s ERA against lefties, however, was a Jedi-like 0.00. If Hendrickson can’t solve right-handers, he should start calling Jesse Orosco for career advice.
Hendrickson and/or Damian Moss will very likely be in the rotation to start the season. Giving guaranteed money to the likes of Moss are just the Devil Rays being the Devil Rays. Moss walks more batters than he strikeouts, gives up hits in bunches, and averages less than 100 pitches per start. He also has mechanical problems, but compensates with an array of amusing Australian colloquialisms. Although he got fat after a DIPS-defying season with San Francisco in 2002, he reportedly became serious about training this off-season and lost 35 pounds. Now he walks people sveltely.
Ten-year veteran Paul Abbott missed most of 2002 with a shoulder tear then surfaced with Kansas City last year and had 10 mediocre starts. Piniella loves Abbott, who pitched for him in Seattle. Abbott will probably start a fair number of games.
If the rotation falls apart, Jorge Sosa could get another look. A Rule 5 pickup two years ago, Sosa has a good fastball but is maddeningly inconsistent. He’s pitched some gems as a starter and had a league average ERA, but will probably be a long man out of the pen.
Other than possibly Waechter, none of these pitchers will contribute much to the Rays’ future success. The future of the Rays pitching, like that of their hitters, is on the farm. Although the Rays’ pitching prospects don’t have the same buzz as the hitters, a number of young pitchers could contribute in 2004. Brazelton has gotten the most press, but McClung, talented lefty Jon Switzer or Chad Gaudin could enter the mix by mid-season. Performance-wise, Switzer and Gaudin have had good ERAs with solid peripherals. Brazelton and McClung haven’t seen the success, but they have the scouts on their sides, which makes them favorites of Devil Rays management.
Bullpen – Unlike the starting rotation, the bullpen is a relative strength for the Rays and has already been mostly defined. Last season the Devil Rays had perhaps the best bullpen in the AL East and most of the principals behind the success will return in 2004. In addition, newcomer Danys Baez has already been cast as closer. In spring training, eight pitchers are competing for one or two open slots.
Baez is a hard thrower who blew 10 saves and lost the closer job for the Indians last year before being non-tendered. His emotionality on the mound is reminiscent of Armando Benitez, but Baez doesn’t quite have Benitez’s stuff and can lose his focus, then the game, quickly.
Mike Scioscia was criticized for giving Aubrey Huff’s spot in the All-Star Game last year to reliever Lance Carter. Although Carter was hardly Huff’s equal, he did do well as a rookie last season. Carter was consistent at the end of games, saved 26, and was a welcome respite from the likes of Esteban Yan and other combustible Devil Ray closers of yore. He’ll set up Baez in 2004 and will get the closing job if Baez fails.
The rest of the pen includes Travis Harper, lefty Trever Miller, John Halama, and other sundry characters to be determined. Harper had a standout year for the Rays in 2003 and ended with a 3.77 ERA in 93 innings. If the historical inconsistency of middle relievers is any guide, he’ll be hard pressed to repeat the success. Miller was signed from the Blue Jays and will be the primary left-handed setup man. Halama will likely be a swingman and long reliever, as will whoever loses the Moss/Hendrickson/Waechter battle in spring training (though Waechter could go back to the minors). The 12th member of the pitching staff will probably be chosen from a rogue’s gallery that includes Todd Jones, Mike Williams, Rule V pickup Alec Zumwalt, and the aforementioned Jorge Sosa and Chad Gaudin. Sosa has probably flashed enough potential to keep the spot, which would force Gaudin to a more useful stint AAA and the rest of the rogues off the plank.
Despite having Chuck LaMar, the Devil Rays’ architect of failure, still on the scene, the team has managed to point itself into the general direction of improvement. The front office has an overemphasis on foot-speed, an unforgivable neglect of on-base ability, and no concept of either pitchers’ or batters’ strikeout/walk ratio, but a five-year history of top-five draft picks is starting to promise results. If the team had $100 million more payroll dollars, they could be the Rupert Murdoch Dodgers. As it is, they’re trying to be the anti-A’s – a team with little money who builds a team through young players undervalued by sabermetricians. The Marlins have shown that the sabermetrically inclined do not hold a monopoly on team-building success, but if the Devil Rays continue to flounder then LaMar’s story could be told in a new Michael Lewis title: Dummyball.
2004 ZiPS Projections
Name P AVG OBP SPC G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Huff* rf .313 .372 .540 154 611 84 191 42 2 31 114 53 75 2 3
Fick* 1b .293 .362 .476 133 464 59 136 35 1 16 72 46 65 0 1
Diaz lf .315 .365 .465 127 482 68 152 35 2 11 67 34 74 13 7
LaForest* c .255 .356 .472 105 377 55 96 23 1 19 63 55 108 3 4
Baldelli cf .307 .353 .448 147 596 93 183 26 8 14 74 35 99 28 9
Perez 1b .263 .348 .469 102 224 37 59 16 0 10 37 25 48 3 2
Cruz# rf .257 .353 .447 148 537 83 138 32 2 22 81 80 120 10 6
Hamilton* rf .274 .330 .430 49 179 23 49 8 1 6 25 13 44 6 1
Perez 2b .266 .348 .420 93 312 52 83 18 3 8 39 36 80 8 5
Crawford* lf .295 .340 .393 150 624 87 184 18 11 7 57 40 86 50 10
Martinez* 1b .256 .332 .433 144 503 62 129 30 1 19 74 52 73 1 2
Gomes rf .245 .323 .426 136 477 71 117 29 3 17 66 50 163 16 3
Lugo ss .273 .340 .399 131 479 65 131 18 3 12 58 44 99 11 6
Hall c .280 .324 .420 129 490 59 137 30 0 13 66 26 39 1 2
Sandberg 3b .237 .317 .430 136 465 63 110 28 1 20 70 51 163 2 1
Guzman* 3b .296 .327 .390 101 351 40 104 19 1 4 39 13 30 2 1
Blum# 3b .262 .326 .376 135 428 47 112 23 1 8 49 37 65 2 2
Upton ss .265 .344 .353 133 468 76 124 20 3 5 44 51 107 27 17
Maxwell 2b .255 .319 .371 92 326 46 83 18 1 6 36 28 55 2 2
Fordyce c .267 .313 .377 97 300 24 80 16 1 5 33 18 42 1 3
Hernandez* cf .255 .315 .373 82 330 41 84 19 1 6 37 27 78 4 4
Rolls 3b .265 .313 .369 111 407 53 108 20 2 6 43 22 84 13 6
Cruz ss .259 .289 .381 144 517 52 134 29 2 10 59 17 50 1 3
Tatis 3b .223 .308 .353 83 278 29 62 12 0 8 33 28 64 2 2
Sanchez ss .229 .280 .294 115 384 34 88 16 3 1 27 25 51 5 3
Brewer ss .204 .240 .261 122 445 41 91 14 1 3 32 16 85 3 4
Name ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Baez 4.01 7 8 51 14 119.0 105 53 10 51 106
Reyes 4.28 4 3 45 0 61.0 56 29 6 25 62
Gaudin 4.50 6 6 32 20 132.0 135 66 11 50 94
Switzer* 4.54 5 7 25 22 123.0 126 62 17 34 101
Halama* 4.54 5 6 33 13 107.0 110 54 15 30 57
Carter 4.58 6 8 50 10 116.0 130 59 17 18 72
Ritchie 4.61 9 12 27 26 160.0 169 82 19 49 100
Jones 4.74 3 4 69 0 76.0 76 40 9 31 66
Fortunato 4.94 4 6 34 4 62.0 58 34 8 30 60
Williams 4.94 4 5 64 0 62.0 57 34 6 38 51
Gonzalez 4.94 7 9 36 24 153.0 158 84 17 66 112
Hendrickson* 4.98 7 9 33 23 141.0 161 78 17 40 72
Waechter 5.00 7 11 27 25 144.0 159 80 21 43 94
Colome 5.01 4 6 50 0 70.0 66 39 8 40 65
Abbott 5.08 6 7 23 20 117.0 119 66 15 54 84
Miller* 5.20 4 5 56 6 83.0 88 48 13 32 63
Brazelton 5.29 6 9 24 24 126.0 133 74 11 66 79
Zambrano 5.30 7 12 44 20 151.0 152 89 17 83 119
Garcia 5.31 3 6 20 16 78.0 85 46 9 36 50
Holtz* 5.36 1 3 53 0 42.0 41 25 7 23 35
Sosa 5.41 6 10 33 21 133.0 146 80 16 61 80
Bell 5.42 6 10 31 29 171.0 191 103 27 63 109
Harper 5.43 5 10 42 12 111.0 125 67 21 34 79
Seay* 5.50 2 3 30 6 54.0 57 33 8 25 41
Standridge 5.53 6 10 27 24 135.0 152 83 16 63 74
Zumwalt 5.61 3 6 43 0 61.0 63 38 5 39 41
Moss* 5.85 6 13 31 28 160.0 177 104 23 83 90
McClung 6.24 3 7 17 15 88.0 102 61 13 48 47
White 7.45 2 7 13 13 58.0 72 48 15 32 34
ZiPS Projections are not playing time predictors; they project a player's performance given playing time in the majors in their accustomed role. As with all projections, specific knowledge of non-statistical attributes of the player should temper what the computer says.
Wheelhouse (S Ransom)
Posted: March 03, 2004 at 12:00 AM |
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Brook Fordyce, who didn’t hit much better with Baltimore than Hall did, was signed as a backup.
Baltimore fans didn't get to enjoy Hall's performance last season. The sentence should have read "than Hall did with Tampa Bay."
McGriff ... [is] a philanthropist who has given more than $1 million toward Tampa children’s hospitals.
Although McGriff is a good guy, the chief beneficiary of his do-gooderism is All Chidrens Hospital, which is technically in St. Pete.
Hope you enjoyed the preview.
P.S. - Upon advice of counsel, I exercise my right to remain silent before the Typography Police. ;)
Sanchez's UZR in Boston was -1 for his one full season at 2B, which is essentially average, and I think that his real talent there is probably better than that (there are oddities in the BIP distribution in Fenway which lead me to think that BoSox 2Bs are undervalued and Garciaparra's defense is overvalued by UZR). He's also played 2B much more than has Lugo (who is an underrated defensive player). I think it's going to work out for the DRays defensively.
Good article for the new guy on the block.
-- MWE
McClung actually was doing pretty well before he got hurt against the Rangers on May 22. He had a 6 IP/1 ER start against Baltimore on April 25, then after getting bombed by the Twins held the Tigers to 1 run in seven innings on May 10 and Baltimore (again) to one run in 6 1/3 IP on May 16.
-- MWE
It's weird to compliment the Devil Rays on something, but I have to give them credit. At least they give their young players a chance to succeed or fail. Unlike teams like the Twins and Cubs who would rather sign a Shannon Stewart or Tom Goodwin than play Michael Cuddyer or David Kelton.
Damian Rolls, from an opposition point of view, is annoying. It would not surprise me at all to see him become legitimately useful for Tampa Bay. (This should not be taken as actual analysis.)
While it's true that Mark Hendrickson got slapped around pretty good last year, it's also true that he had some very good games. He's pretty collected on the mound, too; even when he's losing you never get the sense that things are out of control.
Tampa gets a lot of knee-jerk derision primarily because they didn't appear to have a plan for the first few years of their existence, and some people stopped paying attention. The Brewers get treated something of the same way, even though they also appear to have a plan that might pay off in a year or two (more of that later in the week when my Brewers' preview appears). I like what the DRays have been doing over the past couple of years, and if they were playing in the AL Central right now I'd predict them to be in the pennant race by next year. Unfortunately for them, they're in the AL East.
If he grows into 20-25 HR power, and could develop even somewhat better plate discipline, with what else he brings -- wow, not a bad player.
Generally, if you expect a guy to grow into a 20-25 HR man, what you expect to see in his younger days are a lot of doubles and triples. Crawford really didn't have that in the minors or in the majors - he had 27 doubles and triples last year in just over 650 PA, and I'd be looking for a potential 20 HR man to have at least 40-50. I don't see him ever hitting many more than 10-12 HRs in a season.
-- MWE
Great article. Almost makes me want to go see a D-Ray game.
Looking at the 14 catchers who played the most innings for their team in 2003 in the AL, Hall's .295 OBP is better than Texas (Einar Diaz, .294), Cleveland (Josh Bard, .293) Seattle (Dan Wilson, .272), Detroit (Inge, .265), and Chicago (Olivo, .287). Further, if you adjust for their hitters' parks, Hall has a higher OBP+ than Kansas City (Mayne, .307).
Seems to me that the median hitting catcher in the league (8th out of 14), with above average defensive ability is a definite plus for a team.
.295 is essentially what you get from the catching position, today, and here should count as a definite team strength.
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