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Monday, March 31, 2003

Arizona Diamondbacks

Apart from the New York Yankees, no team exudes more veteran ethos than the Diamondbacks. They have two of the greatest "old" pitchers in the history of the game, a couple of forever young outfielders, and an assortment of greying spare parts.

They�ve built one of the more successful clubs in recent years. Conventional (analyst) wisdom suggests that their demise is imminent, and every spring one can hear whispers in the air that, surely, they can�t hold things together much longer.

No team in the National League depends more on its two best starting pitchers than Arizona. Their hopes for a 4th playoff appearance in 5 years rest on the shoulders of the best lefty-righty pitching duo in recent memory.

Top 2 Starters (determined by innings pitched), 2002 NL
Team		IP	H	ER	HR	W	K	ERA	Rest of Team	Difference
ARI	NL	519.3	415	160	55	104	650	2.77	4.57	1.80
PHI	NL	416.7	370	150	39	116	300	3.24	4.54	1.30
HOU	NL	397.7	366	138	31	124	352	3.12	4.34	1.22
CHN	NL	418.7	331	169	40	182	432	3.63	4.59	0.95
CIN	NL	374.7	383	150	45	130	219	3.60	4.53	0.93
SDN	NL	414.3	442	188	47	112	275	4.08	4.88	0.80
LAN	NL	442.7	371	157	47	139	348	3.19	3.91	0.72
MON	NL	423.0	437	168	47	94	297	3.57	4.14	0.57
MIL	NL	427.3	464	210	51	146	310	4.42	4.90	0.48
PIT	NL	392.7	396	173	49	140	247	3.97	4.34	0.38
FLO	NL	358.0	341	167	21	164	270	4.20	4.42	0.22
ATL	NL	441.7	396	152	37	143	305	3.10	3.15	0.05
SLN	NL	353.7	344	144	34	118	243	3.66	3.71	0.05
COL	NL	364.0	429	215	50	161	201	5.32	5.17	-0.14
NYN	NL	396.0	386	181	55	132	324	4.11	3.83	-0.29
SFN	NL	430.3	424	191	34	165	271	3.99	3.36	-0.63

Johnson and Schilling pitched almost 80 more innings than any other NL 1-2 punch in 2002. The rest of the Arizona pitching staff was ordinary, ranking 12th out of 16 teams. Adjusting for the favourable hitting environment, they were about average.

Arizona, 1999-2002, overall offense and defense
year	runs	allowed	league	B PF	P PF	Adj R +-	Adj RA +-	Exp W/L
1999	908	676	806.7	0.97	0.97	129.4	-109.8	102-60
2000	792	754	812.1	1.02	1.01	-35.6	-65.6	85-77
2001	818	677	761.6	1.06	1.05	10.1	-116.9	95-67
2002	819	674	721.8	1.08	1.07	36.5	-91.9	95-67

Key: B PF/ P PF= Batters�/Pitchers� Park Factor; Adj R/RA+- = the number of runs scored and allowed below average, taking league and park into account; Exp W/L (Pythagorean WPCT) = the number of wins and losses expected based on runs scored and runs allowed.

The D-backs offense is overrated because of their home park, and it has been hovering around league average since 2000. Lyle Overbay is the only newcomer who will likely see major playing time and he won�t be any better than Grace/Durazo. Unless Danny Bautista does something special this year, there won�t be much thunder in the lineup.

Thankfully, the offense only needs to be about average for the D-backs to be a serious 95 win threat. There are signs that the rotation depth has improved, with Dessens, Kim and Patterson the trio likely to get most of the starts. The D-backs will come close to leading the league in ERA, and that�s not an easy thing to do in one of the better hitters� parks in the majors.

THE LINEUP

Excluding the expansion season, only one position player under the age of 25 has come to the plate 200 or more times in any season with Arizona. That man was Travis Lee, who was 24 years old in 1999 and came to the plate 436 times. The next youngest was Erubiel Durazo, who at age 26 garnered 276 PA in 2000. Last year, 27-year-old Junior Spivey became the second youngest D-Back to exceed 500 PA.

Arizona likes to bring its young players along slowly.

SS: Tony Womack

If you had Steve Finley, Craig Counsell and Junior Spivey on your team, why would you want to bat Tony Womack leadoff? Oh, I forgot, he�s fast and he plays in the middle of the diamond. There are rumors that he�ll be bunting more this year.

Shortstop platoons are very rare, probably because it is difficult to find two good hitters who can handle the position. Assuming Counsell has the arm strength to play short, Brenly would be well advised to sit Womack against most lefties.

Womack has been terrible against lefties: his 2000-2002 OBP/SLG splits were .321/.386 versus righties and .291/.284 versus lefties. If Brenly leads him off against lefties�. well, it�s a good thing that the batting order doesn�t matter all that much.

3B: Craig Counsell/Matt Williams

Counsell will start the season in the 2 slot against righties; Williams will bat down the order against lefties.

Matt Williams is no longer capable of playing 150 games a year, but he can still mash lefties. A platoon with Counsell would probably be the most sensible arrangement for the hot corner. Brenly has talked about giving Williams playing time at first base. Brenly may decide that Counsell�s more valuable in a super-utility role.

Craig Counsell and Matt Williams, 2000-2002 batting splits
Player		PA*	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG
Counsell	vs LHP	296	261	77	16	1	0	2	3	35	45	0	.295	.375	.364
Williams	vs LHP	325	304	93	14	1	21	2	1	21	45	0	.306	.349	.566

Counsell	vs RHP	881	785	220	36	4	8	14	13	91	101	5	.280	.356	.367
Williams	vs RHP	738	690	177	41	3	19	3	2	42	117	6	.257	.302	.407

Key: PA* = plate appearances excluding sac hits and sac flies

2B: Junior Spivey

Spivey has a very quick bat and above average power for a second baseman. He can handle the position defensively.

The following is the first of four tables which include measures of the component skills that comprise batting skill. The four skills are: hitting line drives (BIP ave), drawing walks (W rate), making contact (K rate), and hitting for power (Power). To give the reader reference points for these measures, the following were the Major League averages in 2002: BIP ave = .296, W rate = .081, K rate = .170, Power = .146.

Junior Spivey, AA/AA/Majors
years	age		G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	W	K	hbp	BIP ave	W rate	K rate	Power
98-00	24.09	AA	84	376	302	93	25	5	7	22	14	64	57	5	.361	.172	.152	.178
00-01	26.08	AAA	82	351	311	78	14	4	9	12	7	38	49	0	.273	.106	.140	.137
01-02	27.09	NL	215	821	701	204	40	9	21	14	6	88	147	18	.343	.105	.180	.162

Key: age = age weighted by games played; BIP ave = batting average on balls in the field of play (homeruns are excluded); W rate = non-intentional walk per opportunity (PA-IW-HBP-SH); K rate = strikeouts per opportunity (PA-IW); power = this measure reflects how hard a player hits the ball when he makes contact: (Doubles+Triples+2*Homeruns) / (AB-K+SF)

Junior Spivey�s performance at AA El Paso was impressive and hinted at what was to come when he finally reached the majors. If he can repeat last year�s performance, he�ll be one of those rare position players who came to the major leagues late and became a legitimate all-star.

LF: Luis Gonzalez

Joe Jr. has been busy this spring, signing two D-backs stars to lucrative contract extensions. Only one of those was sound - no prizes for guessing that it�s not Gonzalez I�m talking about. Luis hit pay-dirt with a 3 year, $30 million extension through 2006, with a mutual option at $10 million for 2007. I wonder how much of that will eventually be deferred.

There is little doubt that 57 homeruns was a fluke. Gonzalez is a disciplined hitter who has walked more times than he�s struck out in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Decline is on the horizon for Gonzalez. His batting average on balls in the field of play over the past 4 years (1999 = .343, 2000 = .321, 2001 = .301, 2002 = .293) indicates that he has been hitting fewer line-drives as the years have progressed. With the exception of the power spike of 2001, Gonzalez hasn�t shown the power often expected of a corner outfielder.

RF: Danny Bautista

Bautista began last season as the D-backs� regular right fielder, but suffered a dislocated left shoulder on May 22. He�s likely to exceed his career high 388 PA this year. Bautista hits right-handers very well (.355/.490 OBP/SLG versus RHP, 2000-2002).

CF: Steve Finley

How many teams have a starting 38-year old centerfielder? Finley has averaged very nearly 150 games in his 4 years as a Diamondback and it would take a magnifying glass to find any sign of decline over those years. He�s still quick enough to hit double figures in stolen bases and his strike-zone judgement is probably better than it was 4 years ago.

Luis Terrero, the centerfielder of the future, is still raw and is at least 2 years away from taking the job. Quinton McCracken is a reasonable facsimile of a centerfielder, so a serious injury to Finley wouldn�t spell doom.

Finley hasn�t shown much of a platoon split in recent years: his OBP/SLG figures (2000-2002) are .361/.491 versus RHP and .343/.496 versus LHP.

1B: Lyle Overbay

Overbay has been brought along slowly despite being hitting consistently well at every minor league stop. Mark Grace has been tutoring his heir apparent on the fine points of defense at first base this spring. Even so, Overbay has looked a little bit uneasy in the field.

Lyle Overbay, AA /AAA
	age		G	PA	AB	H	2b	3b	HR	sb	cs	w	k	hbp	BIP ave	W rate	K rate	Power
2000-01	24.12	AA	200	888	776	273	65	5	21	8	6	95	131	7	.404	.097	.149	.171
2002	25.43	AAA	134	579	525	180	40	0	19	0	0	42	86	7	.383	.069	.149	.176

Overbay�s swing draws rave reviews. In the minors, he�s shown himself to be an excellent line-drive hitter with good but not great power. Expectations for him seem a little high: he�s not going to be a star.

Catcher: Chad Moeller/ Rod Barajas

Damian Miller was traded in one of two significant trades Arizona made during the off-season. Moeller and Barajas will split the catching duties, perhaps on a "personal catcher" basis. The current plan is to pair Moeller with Johnson and Patterson, and Barajas with Dessens.

Diamondbacks catchers 2001-2002, AAA/ NL

age

team

hbp

BIP avg

W rate

K rate

Power

Rod Barajas

25.92

AAA

193

178

.343

.043

.131

.221

26.40

121

282

260

.232

.037

.183

Robert Dudek Posted: March 31, 2003 at 12:00 AM | 6 comment(s)
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   1. Darren Posted: March 30, 2003 at 09:53 PM (#610116)

Is there a chance that ZiPS is a little too kind to rookie hitters? Overbay and Hafner (off the top of my head) seem unlikely to match ZiPs projections. I don't think Overbay hit those numbers in AAA last year.
   2. John M. Perkins Posted: March 30, 2003 at 09:53 PM (#610121)

While an article on the Diamondback pair, the two ace analysis looks best for the chances of the Giants. Losing innings eater Livan Hernandez looks more promising to the Giants than more of Johnson and Schilling for Arizona.
   3. Robert Dudek Posted: March 30, 2003 at 09:53 PM (#610124)

John M.,

Keep in mind that the "rest of the team" includes the bullpen, which tend to have lower ERAs than the starters. Nevertheless, losing Livan shouldn't "hurt" the Giants.

   4. Robert Dudek Posted: March 30, 2003 at 09:53 PM (#610146)

Greg,

Allow me to respectfully disagree. OBP and SLG combined are good measures of overall production. What I'm after are metrics designed to look at the component skills. I can use these to map out a hitter's development from young player to grizzled player in a way that AVG, OBP and SLG can't (because they each incorporate 2 of the component skills).
   5. tangotiger Posted: March 31, 2003 at 09:53 PM (#610157)

I agree with Robert's point about breaking up the components.

And this is an excellent article.

As a control, I looked at all teams from 1961 to 1998 who were a .530 to .570 team, and tracked how they did the next 4 years. They came in at .526, .526, .516, .510.

The falloff as Robert is showing from experienced teams needing to replenish is certainly very interesting. A larger sample would be needed though to establish significance. This EI is a great tool to use.
   6. Robert Dudek Posted: April 02, 2003 at 09:54 PM (#610192)

Here's my back of the envelope prediction for Kim (non-park adjusted):

203 IP, 190 H, 21 HR, 68 W, 170 K, 3.52 ERA

I've found, in looking at reliever to starter conversions (which are rarer than you might think), that the reliever loses A LOT of K/9. Consequently, hits per 9IP are up, as is ERA. However, walks and homeruns allowed stay at around the same rate.

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