— BTF's Preseason Previews
Sunday, March 20, 2005
San Diego Padres Preview
2004 Recap
After two straight years of 95+ losses, the Padres celebrated the move into their new home park with their first winning season since their last World Series appearance back in 1998. Their 87 victories last year marked a 23-game improvement over the previous season. One of the biggest differences was in the starting pitching. For the first time since 1988, the Padres saw five starters make 20+ starts in a season. They worked more efficiently and went deeper into games than in 2003, resulting in an ERA over three-quarters of a run better and 11 more decisions. Although some veterans experienced down seasons, a few of the youngsters made their presence felt. Generally the 2004 season was considered a success, although there are those who believe the Padres could and should have done more to improve the club down the stretch while they were fighting for a playoff spot.
The Ballpark
Based on what was known about Petco Park going into its inaugural season, I made a few semi-educated guesses as to how it might play:
· Lefties who are dead pull hitters should have more success at Petco than at the Q. On the Padres, Ryan Klesko best fits this description. If he can hook balls down the line and away from the power alleys, Klesko could hit 30+ homers for the third time in his career. Obviously that didn't happen. But the point remains that there is a short porch in right. It's just a matter of time before someone finds a way to take advantage of it.
· Guys who primarily hit balls in the gaps could see some of their home runs turn into doubles or triples. Brian Giles and Phil Nevin are likely to be most affected here. Both are good bets for 35-40 doubles this season. The deep alleys also could keep Sean Burroughs' home run power at bay for another year. He'll hit 30+ doubles and threaten double-digit triples instead. Giles hit 33 doubles, Nevin knocked 31. Giles' total was in line with what he's done the past several years, while Nevin's represented a jump from his recent totals. Burroughs didn't collect many extra base hits at all, but I don't think that was due to Petco.
· The reduced foul ground won't help pitchers, who will see many outs turn into second chances. Not only will some of those chances turn into hits, but a secondary effect is that pitchers may have to throw more pitches. Don't know how many outs turned into second chances, but pitchers (starters at least) didn't throw more pitches (92.4 per start, down from 93.8 in 2004; thank you David Wells).
·
The better infield will have a very slightly positive effect.
If
nothing else, it may encourage pitchers to keep the ball on the ground
and away
from the expansive outfield. I can't find team GB/FB ratios, but
here's how
the Big Three starters did in 2003 and 2004:
2004 2003
Eaton 0.89 1.26
Lawrence 1.81 1.61
Peavy 1.18 0.97
Decidedly inconclusive. On the other hand, the better infield
did result
in a lot fewer errors than at the Q.
I concluded that “Overall my expectation is that Petco will play as a pitchers' park, but not to the extreme degree that Qualcomm did. We'll have a better idea after the season, but we probably won't know for sure until around 2006 or 2007.” I stand by that last sentence. As for the one that precedes it, let's look at the numbers:
2004 2002-03
BA 92 98
R 82 85
H 89 99
2B 91 82
3B 136 110
HR 66 82
BB 112 97
SO 104 99
E 71 106
E-inf 51 (68) 94 (103)*
LHB-BA 96 97
LHB-HR 68 74
RHB-BA 89 98
RHB-HR 65 89
* All numbers per Bill James Handbook 2005, except E-inf; numbers in parentheses are from Sporting News 2005 Scouting Handbook. For some reason, there is a disparity between the two sources.
Batting average, runs, and hits were down a little bit from the final two seasons at Qualcomm Stadium; the latter two were the lowest factors in the NL. Doubles and triples increased, while homers decreased (again, lowest in the league). Walks went way up (highest factor in the NL), and errors went way down (lowest).
Off-Season Moves
Incoming
RHP Brian Falkenborg, INF Jesse Garcia, LHP Chris Hammond, INF Damian Jackson, LHP Darrell May, RHP Danny Patterson, LHP Dennys Reyes, OF Dave Roberts, RHP Rudy Seanez, OF Mark Sweeney, LHP Randy Williams, RHP Woody Williams, INF/OF Eric Young
Outgoing
INF Rich Aurilia, LHP Mike Bynum, INF Alex Gonzalez, INF Dave Hansen, LHP Sterling Hitchcock, OF Terrence Long, RHP Antonio Osuna, RHP David Pauley, OF Jay Payton, OF Kerry Robinson, RHP Ricky Stone, RHP Brian Sweeney, RHP Dennis Tankersley, INF Ramon Vazquez, LHP David Wells
The Lineup
1.
Dave
Roberts, CF. The man known for “The Steal” was anything but one in a
December
trade that saw Jay Payton, Ramon Vazquez, David Pauley, and $2.65M head
to the
Red Sox in exchange for the career .259/.335/.344 hitter who is
supposed to
solve the Padres' leadoff and centerfield problems. (Padres leadoff
batters hit
.288/.334/.395 last year.) Roberts is 33 years old and has never played
in more
than 127 games in a season. He probably needs to be platooned
(.179/.242/.250 against
lefties last year), so look for Eric Young (.329/.413/.451 against
southpaws)
to get some time in this spot as well. As for defense, the theory is
that
Roberts will be an improvement over Payton. Although that may be the
case,
check out these numbers from 2004:
Inn Rng
Payton 1027 3.01
Roberts 206 2.67
ML Avg 2.58
Only Tampa Bay's Rocco Baldelli had a higher range factor among regular
big-league centerfielders last year. Another yellow flag for Roberts is
his
history of shoulder and hamstring injuries. If he can't run, he has no
value. Bottom
line? Roberts is in over his head as a leadoff hitter for a club that
expects
to contend. He is better cast as a fourth outfielder who can do a lot
of little
things, but asking him to be the catalyst of a big-league offense is
probably a
bit much.
2. Mark Loretta, 2B. Last year in this space I said that Loretta would “again be one of the more productive second basemen in the NL.” Some claimed that this was overly optimistic, but in fact it wasn't optimistic enough, as Loretta improved his offense across the board and led big-league second basemen in runs, hits, batting average, and on base percentage. He also finished second in slugging percentage and doubles. On defense, he isn't flashy but he has good hands and turns the double play well (among second basemen, only Alfonso Soriano turned more last year). A late bloomer, Loretta is 33 years old and shouldn't be expected to post an OPS near 900 again. But even if he settles back into his 2003 level, he's a premium talent at a premium position. With his consistent approach at the plate and ability to use the entire field, Loretta will continue to be a key part of the Padres offense.
3.
Brian
Giles, RF. Last year in this space I said that Giles would be one of
the Padres
hitters most affected by the move to Petco. Whether it was the more
spacious
park, his advancing age, or a combination of the two, Giles was not the
elite
performer last year that he had been over the previous five seasons.
Although
his numbers (.284/.374/.475) were respectable, this marked the first
time since
1998 in Cleveland that he'd notched an on base percentage below .400 or
a
slugging percentage below .500. It was not the kind of season expected
from a
guy thought to be the cornerstone of the offense. At age 34, his days
of 75-80
extra base hits a year are probably behind him. Another disturbing
trend is
Giles' decrease in walks and increase in strikeouts:
PA BB SO BB/PA BB/SO
2002 644 135 74 .210 1.824
2003 609 105 58 .172 1.810
2004 711 89 80 .125 1.113
Giles did a solid job of negotiating the difficult right field in
Petco.
Unfortunately, he wasn't brought to San Diego for his defense. If he
can get
back to the .300/.400/.500 levels that used to be the norm, Giles will
be a
valuable member of the lineup. If not, he'll still be useful but
disappointingly so.
4. Phil Nevin, 1B. Healthy enough to play a full season for the first time since 2001, Nevin didn't quite return to his numbers from that year. However, he did put together a season pretty well in line with his 2000:
PA XB% BB/SO OPS+ WS
2000 605 .405 .488 137 22
2004 623 .367 .545 128 23
Nevin also made the most of his opportunities, trailing only the
Cardinals'
Albert Pujols in RBI among NL first basemen. Nevin hit .316/.406/.514
with
RISP, which accounted for just under a third of his total plate
appearances. He
also crushed lefties to the tune of .324/.431/.582. Over the past three
seasons, he's hit .332/.418/.614 against southpaws. Defensively, Nevin
is less
likely to get injured at first base than he was at third. He has decent
range
and quick reflexes, but his footwork around the bag can get sloppy and
he
doesn't always help his infielders on tough throws. Nevin was one of
the more
outspoken critics of the spacious dimensions of Petco Park, but he
actually
managed to put up decent numbers there (.265/.364/.465). If he can
concentrate
on driving the ball to the power alleys and not worry so much about
home runs,
he'll continue to produce for the Padres.
5. Ryan Klesko, LF. The fifth and final member of the vaunted “Mid-30s SoCal Native Five” (catchy, huh?) battled a right shoulder injury and his new home park last year en route to a career low nine homers. The good news is, thanks to a strong finish (.310/.427/.519 after the All-Star break), Klesko finished up with an 847 OPS. Oddly, his OPS+ was the same in 2004 (127) as it was in 1995, when he launched a career high 34 homers. To put Klesko's OPS into perspective, it was higher than those of (among others) Jeff Bagwell, Andruw Jones, Steve Finley, Pat Burrell, and Shawn Green last year. So yes, it was a relatively poor season by Klesko's standards, but it wasn't the complete wash that some make it to be. If he can stay healthy (as of this writing he was experiencing some discomfort in his throwing shoulder – not the one that was hurt before), there's no reason to believe Klesko can't approach the goals he's set for himself this year (.320 batting average, 15 homers, .400 on base percentage). Like Nevin last season, Klesko will be able to silence his doubters with a strong comeback.
6. Ramon Hernandez, C. There is a little uncertainty regarding the exact order of the bottom three in the Padres 2005 lineup. There is no uncertainty regarding Hernandez' status as the best catcher to play in San Diego in a very long time. The last time a Padres receiver posted a higher OPS+ than Hernandez' 116? Hint: Ronald Reagan was president; The Police, Michael Jackson, Irene Cara, Hall and Oates, and Bonnie Tyler were topping the music charts; Return of the Jedi, Flashdance, and Trading Places were the big movies; and Jake Peavy was two years old. That's right, the year was 1983 and Terry Kennedy hit .284/.342/.434. Back to the present, Hernandez worked well with the pitching staff and managed to improve on his 2003 offensive numbers despite changing leagues and calling games for an entirely different set of moundsmen from the previous year. Here is a particularly encouraging progression:
PA BB SO BB/PA BB/SO XB%
2002 457 43 64 .094 .672 .287
2003 536 33 79 .062 .418 .348
2004 432 35 45 .081 .778 .387
Last year Hernandez displayed the batting eye of two years ago
and
improved on the power numbers of 2003. The only negative was that he
played in
just 111 games, due in large part to an injury sustained while trying
to block
home plate. Assuming Hernandez stays healthy, look for more of the same
from
him both at and behind the dish.
7.
Khalil
Greene, SS. This time last year, the shortstop job was wide open in San
Diego.
Greene took control in spring and proved to be one of the stabilizing
influences on the ballclub until a freak injury ended his season in
early
September. Last year in this space I said: “Greene frequently is
compared to
Rich Aurilia, and if Greene takes the job, he'll hit about like Aurilia
did in
his first full season (.266/.319/.407).” Turns out I underestimated
Greene's
hitting ability, as he finished up at .273/.349/.446 (including a
whopping
.294/.337/.647 in 85 at-bats as leadoff hitter). Particularly
encouraging was
his second half showing. Greene hit .293/.351/.540 after the All-Star
break and
likely would have won Rookie of the Year honors had he not broken his
right
index finger on a bad hop grounder with two weeks to play. Here's a
quick
comparison between Greene's first full season and those of a couple
other
heralded young shortstops:
Age PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ WS Greene 24 554 .273 .349 .446 112 20 Jeter 22 654 .314 .370 .430 101 18 Tejada 23 674 .251 .325 .427 91 20Defensively Greene doesn't have spectacular range but he has good instincts and a quick release on his throws. He also turns the double play well and doesn't panic. Greene was one of the keys to the Padres' big turnaround in 2004. If he stays healthy, he should build on his rookie season and be a very productive hitter at the bottom of the order, with 20+ homers a real possibility.
8. Sean Burroughs, 3B. I expected Burroughs to make steady progress last year before breaking out in 2005. Well, he didn't exactly improve his game, but I still look for him to step up this year. The difference is, now he pretty much has to in order to remain a part of the Pads' long-term plans. Among the negatives for Burroughs were his drop in power and walk rate, which dipped to Ichiroesque levels:
PA ISO XB/H BB/PA
Burroughs 564 .067 .179 .055
Ichiro 762 .082 .141 .064
So for Burroughs to be productive with those numbers, he just has to
hit about
.370 like Ichiro. I'm being facetious, of course. What Burroughs really
needs
to do is work counts and drive baseballs a lot better than he did last
year.
The hope is that good health and moving out of the leadoff spot will
allow
Burroughs to take advantage of his natural strength and blossom into
the hitter
the Padres expected him to become when they drafted him ninth overall
in 1998.
The Bench
Miguel Ojeda returns as Ramon Hernandez' understudy behind the plate, with Humberto Quintero available at Triple-A if needed. Both are capable backup catchers, with Ojeda providing more offense and Quintero more advanced defensively. Geoff Blum and Eric Young are the backup infielders. Both can play anywhere; Young brings a little more to the table at the plate and could spell Roberts in centerfield against lefties. Xavier Nady and Mark Sweeney are the reserve outfielders. Nady will see time at all three spots, as well as the infield corners. He is out of options, and the Padres intend to get him 300-400 at-bats this year. Sweeney essentially replaces Terrence Long as the left-handed bat off the bench. Others in the mix include infielders Jesse Garcia and Damian Jackson. Robert Fick was brought back but isn't eligible to play with the big club until May 1. He is logging some innings behind the plate this spring and could surface in San Diego at some point.
The Rotation
1. Jake Peavy, RHP. Peavy burst onto the scene in his second full big-league season, leading all of baseball with a 2.27 ERA. He was the first Padre ever to lead the majors in ERA and the first since Randy Jones in 1975 to lead the NL. And Peavy did this at the tender age of 23. How unique was his season? Since 1980, only five pitchers under age 25 have recorded a sub-3.00 ERA while striking out more than a batter per inning:
Player Yr Age IP ERA SO/9 Gooden,Dw 84 20 218 2.60 11.39 Perez,Ol 04 23 196 2.98 10.97 Prior,Ma 03 23 211.1 2.43 10.43 Fernandez,Si 85 23 170.1 2.80 9.51 Peavy,Ja 04 23 166.1 2.27 9.36Gooden followed up his season with a Cy Young Award in 1985, Prior got hurt, Fernandez turned into a league-average pitcher, and we don't know about Perez. Which path will Peavy follow? Who knows. But I will say that if he stays healthy, he'll get more than the zero Cy Young Award votes he got last year.
2. Woody Williams, RHP. Williams returns to the Padres after spending 3 1/2 years in St. Louis courtesy of the Ray Lankford debacle that Kevin Towers refers to as the worst trade he's ever made. Williams essentially replaces David Wells as the veteran presence to help guide the young pitchers on the staff. His numbers last year were down from the past few seasons, but they weren't too far off his career line and don't represent much of a drop from what Wells did last year. I could compare the two pitchers' 2004 seasons but it might be more instructive to look at how each did in his last year before coming to the Pads:
Yr IP H ERA SO/9 BA OBP SLG
Williams 04 189.2 193 4.18 6.24 .262 .322 .424
Wells 03 213.0 242 4.14 4.27 .286 .306 .442
What I find interesting is that both pitchers come to San Diego after
having
worked in similar environments the previous season. Check out these
park
factors from 2002-2004:
R H HR
Busch Stadium 93 97 85
Yankee Stadium 93 95 103
Although Williams may not see his homers go down much, assuming
Petco
Park continues to play as it did in its inaugural season (an admittedly
large
assumption), he should be able to put up numbers similar to those of
Wells last
year.
3. Brian Lawrence, RHP. More of the usual from Lawrence last year: 200+ innings, league average ERA, a lot of ground balls, not many walks. After his first full season in the bigs, it looked like Lawrence might be something special, but the trends indicate he is settling merely into extreme usefulness:
Yr IP ERA SO/9 HR/9 ISO GB/FB 02 210.0 3.69 6.39 0.69 .112 2.51 03 210.2 4.19 4.96 1.16 .155 1.61 04 203.0 4.12 5.37 1.15 .173 1.81Doesn't keep the ball on the ground or in the park as well as he once did, nor does he miss as many bats (not that he was ever a power pitcher). Concerns that Lawrence might suffer from the departure of Gary Bennett (3.20 ERA with Bennett behind the dish in 2003, 7.02 ERA with others) thankfully proved unnecessary. He'll never be at the front of a rotation, but a guy like Lawrence, who can soak up innings and keep his club in the game, is a valuable member of any pitching staff.
4. ; Adam Eaton, RHP. The big tease. No Padres pitcher has a greater disparity between ability and results. Eaton's repertoire is outstanding and he's fully recovered from 2002 Tommy John surgery, so what's the problem? In a nutshell, consistency. Eaton will cruise along for several innings during a game and then start leaving hittable pitches out over the plate for no apparent reason. Pitching coach Darren Balsley is working with Eaton this spring to shorten his stride and tighten his breaking ball. The hope is that smoother mechanics will help improve his command and also reduce the chances of further injury. Eaton's stuff is top shelf – easily as good as Peavy's – but so far he hasn't been able to turn it into anything more than average results. Eaton is young, intelligent, and coachable so there's still breakout potential here. Soon would be good. Interestingly, he didn't benefit at all from the move to Petco Park:
IP H ERA SO/9 HR/9 BA
Home 101.0 112 4.99 7.40 1.25 .282
Away 98.1 92 4.21 6.41 1.28 .249
Compare with his splits from 2003:
IP H ERA SO/9 HR/9 BA
Home 93.0 84 3.58 7.84 0.77 .237
Away 90.0 89 4.60 6.50 1.20 .255
5. Darrell May, LHP. Throws strikes. Gets hit hard. Less retired than Sterling Hitchcock. More left-handed than Ismael Valdez. There is some sentiment that May could bounce back from his 2004 season with a move to a more pitcher-friendly ballpark. It's a nice thought, but he did surrender 1.94 homers per 9 innings in home games last year, in a park that had a home run index of 74 (Petco Park's index was 66). Opponents hit .306/.350/.555 against May in 2004. Basically he made everyone look like Miguel Tejada (.311/.360/.534) at the plate. May did have a solid 2003 season so anything is possible. But realistically, the best that can be hoped for is that he soaks up innings and keeps the club in games like Valdez did last year, at least until Tim Stauffer is ready.
Bullpen
1. Trevor Hoffman, RHP. The all-time leader in career saves for a single team returned nicely after a 2003 season that was all but lost due to shoulder surgery. His fastball topped 90 for the first time in years, and his changeup remained as devastating as always. The only real knocks on his game now are that he doesn't bounce back as quickly from outings or punch out as many guys as he once did. With the strongest supporting cast he's had since 1998, there's no reason to believe he'll be any less effective this year.
2. Akinori Otsuka, RHP. Last year's International Man of Mystery came to the Padres cheap and with little fanfare. His numbers in Japan were similar to those of former Mariners closer Kaz Sasaki, but for some reason Otsuka didn't attract much interest on this side of the Pacific. Last year I said, “If Otsuka can come anywhere close to matching Sasaki's success on this side of the Pacific, the Padres could have themselves a real nice bullpen.” As it happened, Otsuka's rookie season was even better than I'd hoped. Here's how he stacked up against Sasaki's 2000:
IP H HR BB SO ERA BB/9 SO/9
Otsuka 77.1 56 6 26 87 1.75 3.03 10.13
Sasaki 62.2 42 10 31 78 3.16 5.17 11.99
Otsuka owned the eighth inning, pacing the NL with 34 holds and
limiting
the opposition to a paltry .199/.266/.305. He basically turned hitters
into
Russ Ortiz (.206/.262/.299 career). With Otsuka's stuff, command, and
presence,
he could close for a lot of clubs. In San Diego, he'll have to be
content to
rack up the holds and let Hoffman seal the deal.
3. Scott Linebrink, RHP. With the sudden departure of Rod Beck, Linebrink was called upon to work in higher-leverage situations. He delivered. Claimed off waivers from the Astros in late May 2003, Linebrink has developed into one of the better setup men in the NL and serves as an example of how “small market” ballclubs can improve themselves without taking a huge financial hit. Miscast as a starter earlier in his career, Linebrink has found his niche in San Diego:
IP H HR BB SO ERA BB/9 SO/9
pre-SD 78.1 93 10 41 56 5.17 4.71 6.43
w/SD 144.2 116 13 48 134 2.43 2.99 8.34
Linebrink worked a few more innings (84.0) than Otsuka (77.1) last year
and was
only slightly less effective (.209/.278/.342; compare with Mike
Matheny's
career line of .239/.293/.336). Like Otsuka, Linebrink could close for
many
teams.
4. Chris Hammond, LHP. The Padres weren't very active this winter, but they made several shrewd signings. Hammond was one of them. Here is his line since returning to the big leagues in 2002:
IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 ERA WHIP 192.2 8.13 0.47 2.57 6.63 2.06 1.189That's what $750k buys these days? Hammond isn't a world beater by any stretch, but when you compare him with some of the other guys who were signed for more money this winter (Dustin Hermanson and Bob Wickman, among others), he looks pretty darned good.
5. Rudy Seanez, RHP. Another low-risk signing with potential upside. This is Seanez' third tour of duty with the Padres. His injury history is pretty lengthy, as he's managed to appear in 40+ games over a season just once in his career. On the other hand, he's not being asked to do a whole lot, essentially replacing the frequently disabled Antonio Osuna at the back end of the bullpen.
6. Dennys Reyes, LHP. Yet another bargain-basement signing, Reyes will be the second lefty out of the bullpen. He also has experience starting and could be used in that capacity if needed, although he was more effective as a reliever in 2004:
IP H ERA SO/9 HR/9 BA
Starter 64.0 75 5.06 6.89 0.98 .299
Reliever 44.0 39 4.30 8.59 1.02 .235
He's relatively cheap ($550k), relatively young (27), and a decent
pitcher.
7. Blaine Neal/Steve Sparks, RHP/Randy Williams, LHP. Neal is a power arm obtained in a deal with Florida last spring. He alternated spurts of dominance with spurts of batting practice in 2004 and is not a lock to make the team. Sparks is old and throws a knuckleball. Williams is a minor-league vet acquired from Seattle. Youngish flamethrower, ancient knuckleballer, or third lefty? You make the call.
Down on the Farm
Guys who could see action with the big club at some point this year include RHP Tim Stauffer, RHP Justin Germano, RHP Brad Baker, C Humberto Quintero, 1B/OF Jon Knott, 1B/OF Tagg Bozied, 1B/OF Paul McAnulty, 2B Josh Barfield, INF J.J. Furmaniak, 3B/OF Corey Smith, OF Freddy Guzman, and OF Ben Johnson. Stauffer probably needs a half a season at Triple-A. He's the one guy here who could be an impact player (not an ace but a solid #3). A lot of folks in the organization like Guzman for his speed, but he looks more like a fourth outfielder to me. McAnulty draws comparisons to former Padre John Kruk for his physique and his hitting ability. He's a line drive machine who could turn into an everyday player if his defense holds up. Knott is very similar, but from the right side. Jesse Barfield's son has slipped in the eyes of some due to his low batting average last year; however, his defense improved and none of his peripheral numbers slipped on moving from High-A to Double-A. Just 22 years old, he remains the jewel of the system. With Loretta entrenched ahead of him, there is no need to rush Barfield. Guys who are further away include RHP Travis Chick (snagged from the Marlins for Ismael Valdez), C George Kottaras, 1B Daryl Jones, and last year's first pick overall in the draft, SS Matt Bush. Everyone knows about Bush, but the others are worth watching as well.
Management
Field
Bruce Bochy got his veteran team last year, let guys play, and saw his club do well. Expect more of the same in 2005. Bochy is at his best when he has players who understand their job and how to do it. The rest of the staff returns, including pitching coach Darren Balsley, who has meshed well with the young arms.
Front Office
The Padres weren't real active this off-season. The trade with Kansas City was basically a swap of expensive parts that had a better chance of contributing with the other club. As for the other big acquisition, Kevin Towers concedes that he gave up too much to get Roberts. On the free agent side, the Padres made some nice signings in a pretty bad market. Greene and Stauffer notwithstanding, recent drafts haven't been real strong. The March hiring of Grady Fuson, who drafted the likes of Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, and Eric Chavez while in Oakland, should provide a shot in the arm of a system that has grown surprisingly thin. The Padres remain a progressive organization that is constantly looking for ways to improve without breaking the bank.
Outlook
Last year in this space I predicted 84 wins for the Pads. To give you an idea of the current baseball climate in San Diego, even though the club exceeded my seemingly optimistic projection, the team and its fans are hungry for more. Assuming everyone stays healthy, the Padres should be able to duplicate their 87 wins of a year ago. Whether that will be enough to propel them to the playoffs and satisfy the locals remains to be seen.
Acknowledgments
Thanks to all my readers at Ducksnorts for the great suggestions on topics to discuss in this year's preview. Special thanks to Ed Barnes for providing some excellent statistical workups. I couldn't have done this without your contributions. Any errors, of course, are mine.
2005 ZiPS Projections Name ERA W L G GS INN H ER BB K HR Hoffman 2.94 4 2 54 0 52.0 46 17 12 52 3 Otsuka 3.18 5 2 67 0 65.0 55 23 21 75 5 Peavy 3.48 14 5 29 29 176.0 158 68 54 174 14 Linebrink 3.49 4 2 60 2 80.0 73 31 29 71 4 Hammond* 3.57 4 2 55 0 63.0 62 25 19 46 3 Neal 3.95 4 3 63 0 73.0 70 32 26 58 5 Reyes* 4.03 5 4 46 8 96.0 86 43 47 87 7 Seanez 4.08 4 4 54 0 64.0 52 29 35 75 6 Williams 4.16 11 10 30 30 186.0 192 86 55 132 18 Lawrence 4.32 13 13 34 33 204.0 222 98 55 127 22 Eaton 4.35 11 11 31 31 180.0 185 87 56 144 22 Dawley 4.50 5 4 29 14 94.0 93 47 35 85 13 May* 4.62 10 12 32 29 181.0 189 93 54 129 28 Falkenborg 4.66 4 5 20 14 85.0 83 44 28 77 16 Germano 4.69 9 11 30 29 167.0 181 87 52 11 22 Ashby 4.73 8 10 27 24 139.0 153 73 54 78 13 Patterson 4.76 1 2 32 0 34.0 36 18 13 24 4 Baker 4.79 2 3 53 7 77.0 66 41 56 89 6 Hensley 4.99 8 12 26 26 146.0 154 81 61 110 20 Brunet 5.18 3 5 26 14 92.0 101 53 39 63 13 Sparks 5.31 4 10 36 18 144.0 165 85 55 71 20 Stauffer 5.38 6 10 28 28 159.0 181 95 61 96 25 Asencio 5.40 3 6 24 17 100.0 114 60 48 51 11 McLeary 5.50 3 5 39 5 72.0 74 44 49 53 7 Oxspring 5.55 4 6 28 16 99.0 98 61 72 84 10 Deago* 5.56 3 6 28 16 102.0 106 63 67 77 11 Williams* 5.72 4 6 53 0 74.0 75 47 52 58 8 Name P AVG OBP SLG G AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI BB K SB CS Giles* lf .273 .387 .468 150 549 150 31 5 22 85 88 100 73 8 4 Loretta 2b .318 .382 .457 149 575 183 37 2 13 84 77 55 49 4 4 Greene ss .275 .342 .428 142 528 145 30 3 15 66 70 49 104 3 4 Nevin 1b .277 .352 .463 124 462 128 24 1 20 61 81 53 102 1 0 Klesko* 1b .272 .374 .454 129 427 116 28 1 16 56 70 70 76 3 3 Burroughs* 3b .297 .354 .382 140 542 161 23 4 5 76 56 40 61 6 4 Knott rf .250 .347 .459 128 444 111 25 1 22 70 74 64 124 5 3 Nady rf .275 .329 .448 122 426 117 21 1 17 65 65 31 78 3 2 Hernandez c .265 .333 .421 127 430 114 22 0 15 52 64 38 60 0 0 Barfield 2b .250 .307 .377 140 515 129 23 3 12 78 70 39 122 8 3 Young 2b .254 .333 .347 123 426 108 21 2 5 55 36 47 36 23 11 Fick* 1b .245 .316 .381 125 412 101 24 1 10 40 52 40 61 1 1 Sain 1b .218 .293 .374 133 455 99 20 0 17 57 63 46 139 1 1 Furmaniak ss .245 .303 .377 126 440 108 19 3 11 60 52 33 101 8 7 Bozied 1b .265 .328 .437 89 339 90 17 1 13 46 51 30 58 1 0 Smith 3b .220 .291 .339 133 463 102 15 2 12 51 46 44 116 5 2 Johnson rf .214 .287 .379 128 425 91 19 3 15 58 55 40 129 7 3 McAnulty* 1b .215 .297 .325 137 465 100 22 1 9 55 47 51 103 2 2 Guzman# cf .248 .328 .305 123 472 117 15 3 2 74 33 53 90 56 37 Roberts* cf .247 .330 .334 114 365 90 11 6 3 55 28 43 44 35 10 Castro# 2b .276 .322 .331 99 362 100 11 3 1 44 26 22 40 28 11 Quintero c .277 .310 .372 100 347 96 21 0 4 34 39 15 38 0 1 Blum# 3b .231 .285 .344 119 372 86 19 1 7 37 40 28 57 1 1 Scales# 2b .242 .331 .337 96 297 72 20 1 2 36 27 38 65 5 3 Risinger 3b .240 .300 .330 93 321 77 17 0 4 29 31 26 48 1 1 Sweeney* lf .239 .343 .418 114 201 48 13 1 7 26 29 31 52 1 2 Garcia 2b .264 .294 .325 100 326 86 12 1 2 32 25 12 50 8 8 Hernandez c .245 .326 .329 80 249 61 9 0 4 29 25 28 32 1 1 Jackson 2b .232 .314 .346 97 254 59 16 2 3 41 24 29 61 11 10 Ojeda c .248 .329 .392 62 153 38 4 0 6 19 24 17 31 0 0ZiPS Projections are not playing time predictors; they project a player's performance given playing time in the majors in their accustomed role. As with all projections, specific knowledge of non-statistical attributes of the player and role should temper what the computer says.