San Francisco Giants Preview

The Giants ended the 2004 season disappointed. The Hated Dodgers, as opposed to the Los Angeles Dodgers, won the division. The only thing worse than the Giants not winning the division is the Dodgers winning the division. Unfortunately, if the Giants don’t win, the Dodgers will a third of the time.

Things that went right in 2004:

Barry Bonds. Whew, he is good. There are a few million questions swirling about how Bonds will do in the immediate future and whether or not he will do anything in the slightly further future. He was the best player in baseball in 2004, and is most likely to be the best in 2005. Much of his MVP status will be jeopardized by missed time, and he is expected to miss a good deal of time.

Things that went wrong in 2004:

Jason Schmidt’s sore arm. If it continues, there’ll be trouble. Schmidt has very little “back up” in terms of hill presence. It isn’t very likely that the 2005 staff will do much after Schmidt’s turn. If Schmidt goes down, so do the Giants.

First Base – J.T. Snow

Snow is a fine first baseman. What he is not is the second coming of Buddha with a mitt. He is a fine fielder, but he is just above average, rather than some “saves 100 runs with his glove” kind of player. I wouldn’t even describe him as the best first baseman in the NL. Snow’s bat used to be considerably more anemic than it is, but he’s been producing at an approximately average rate for a 1B. His production has gone up considerably since coming to the Giants. He hit a ton in 2004, and you can bet the house that he’ll be much worse in 2005. Probably 20 runs worse, depending on how many plate appearances he gets.

The bad thing about “Alien Possession™ ” is that if you don’t capitalize on it, the next season, your team struggles to even threaten. On the plus side, Snow is off to a good start – his SLG is only .405 at press time but if he can maintain a .414 OBP, that’s a dead issue.

He’s 37.

Second Base – Ray Durham

Ray Durham is a fine second baseman. He hits pretty well, he fields pretty well, but unfortunately for the Giants, he also gets injured pretty well. He’s a plus at the position overall, and he’d be more highly regarded if the NL didn’t have a handful of better second basemen. The more Durham is hurt, the more Deivi Cruz gets to play – which just makes the Giants a worse team.

I like Durham’s skills, but the Giants need 700 PAs rather than the 500 they have been getting.

He’s 33.

Third Base – Edgardo Alfonzo

Alfonzo was an outstanding prospect at short, coming up at age 21 and dazzling Met fans with a mature bat and an excellent glove. Then, he injured his back, and his power got sapped. Just like with Durham, the Giants signed a very good player with a promising future and promptly got less than they bargained for.

Fonzie can still hit, his strike zone judgment is above average, but his power needs to come back for the Giants to play him at third. I don’t know if his back would allow him to move back to second, where his offense is less of a liability.

In the end, Fonzie costs the Giants at third, with respect to the average in the NL. I don’t think the Giants have another/better option, but subpar power at a power position isn’t going to help them win the division.

While Fonzie is off to a great start, almost single-handedly carrying the Giant offense the first couple of weeks, you still have to worry about his back.

He’s 31.

Shortstop – Omar Vizquel

Omar Vizquel is a step slower defensively, but he’s still good. He hit, remarkably, average or better for a shortstop. He’ll probably generate the most runs against positional average than anyone else on the infield. Shudder.

He’s 38.

Left Field – Barry Bonds

Okay, we know Bonds is out for half (or so) the season. That leaves left field to Pedro Feliz. Feliz *looked* like he hit a bunch last season, and he does have a nice isolated power mark, but his poor walk rate will kill you over the long haul. It’s less trouble in the 6 hole, but without Bonds, the lineup needs more complete players.

Bonds is 40.

Center Field – Marquis Grissom

Grissom has parlayed 350 very good ABs in Los Angeles into a lot more playing time, rather than retirement. The Giants have, admittedly, gotten more from Grissom over the last two seasons than anyone thought, but it was still not good. He wasn’t the worst CF ever, but he’s below average, and sinking.

He’s 38.

Right Field – Moises Alou

Alou gets a lot of grief, but he’s been pretty good over the last 5 years, and the Giants will probably get good performance from him. He’s ugly in the outfield, but he catches balls he can get to, as long as no fan reaches out to get a souvenir.

The RF at SBC is not easy, but neither is Wrigley’s wall. Alou will be the only non-Bonds hitter to perform well, if he keeps up his recent efforts. He’s 38.

Catcher – Mike Matheny

Matheny is this great handler of pitchers, and maybe that’s true. But he’s a worse hitter than just about anyone on this side of Rey Ordonez (Matheny’s career OPS+ 63; Ordonez’ 60). Matheny better save a handful of runs, because he’ll be killing more rallies than any other starting position player in the NL.

He’s 34.

The Rotation –

Jason Schmidt, Kurt Rueter, Brett Tomko, Nick Lowry, Jerome Williams

Schmidt is a bonafide stud. He missed a start or three, but still went deep when he did pitch. Hopefully that won’t be too much trouble this season. Schmidt is the kind of pitcher every team wants at the head of their rotation. He throws hard, strikes people out and goes deep into games. He’ll keep the Giants in his starts and probably win 15 or more.

Kirk Rueter is a survivor. He has been graced with enough run support to post double-digit wins and a wining record, despite below average ERAs most of his career. Last season it started to catch up to him, and this season, with no Bonds, it’ll probably finish him off, or he’ll wander across the pasture and graze for a few seasons in LOOGYville. Sooner or later, Rueter will be exposed – hopefully Chris Jaffe's

Run Support Site will bump Rueter up in the rotation.

Brett Tomko isn’t good. He threw 126 innings as a rookie with an ERA of 3.43. He hasn’t had an ERA below 4.00 since. Unless he figured out something new at the age of 32, he’s going to post a big ERA this season, and contribute to the Giants giant spiral downward.

Noah Lowry and Jerome Williams are young! They are also pretty good. Lowry is a good lefty, walking few and striking out 7 a game. Williams regressed to the mean in his sophomore season, but still pitched well. Williams did hit a bunch of batters in 2004, but I don’t know if that was a fluke, but it was interesting.

The Bullpen –

Armando Benitez, Jim Brower, Matt Herges, Scott Eyre, Jeff Fassero

I know Benitez is really good, but I think he’s overrated. He’ll cause way too many fans to have heart attacks. He also will choke so bad in the playoffs it’ll make your eyes burn and that’s only if the Giants make the playoff and if Benitez is able to limp onto the field by then.

The rest are your run-of-the-mill bullpen guys – interchangeable parts who could have a great season or a not so great season – depending on how the cookie crumbles.

Summation

The Giants are old. They are probably looking at a 20 game drop in their record, at least. They will score so many fewer runs as to boggle the mind. The pitching will end up about the same. A little worse from Tomko and Rueter – a little better from Williams and Lowry (than the pickup starters from 2004). The defense is older, so they may allow a few more runs.

Your 2005 San Francisco Giants: 71-91

2005 ZiPS Projections

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Schmidt             16   7   3.18  30  30   204.0  171   72  15   68  220 
Benitez              3   2   4.02  65   0    65.0   58   29   6   29   67 
Williams            10   8   4.03  27  27   154.0  155   69  13   54  106 
Brower               7   5   4.20  67   2    90.0   90   42   7   37   60 
Lowry*               9   7   4.23  32  30   164.0  162   77  17   63  128 
Herges               4   3   4.25  67   0    72.0   73   34   7   26   48 
Kinney               8   7   4.31  33  21   142.0  145   68  16   50  100 
Fassero*             6   5   4.41  53   8    96.0  102   47   8   38   53 
Eyre*                2   2   4.50  76   1    62.0   60   31   5   33   47 
Puffer               5   4   4.50  61   0    78.0   79   39   5   39   48 
Villafuerte          5   5   4.56  64   0    73.0   72   37   7   37   57 
Walker               5   5   4.61  39  17   123.0  128   63  16   47   89 
Burres*              5   6   4.72  37  11   103.0  102   54  15   42   86 
Tomko               10  10   4.73  32  32   196.0  216  103  27   61  112 
Correia              6   6   4.78  35  20   130.0  133   69  17   54   94 
Woody*               9  11   4.85  31  31   178.0  208   96  19   59   56 
Foppert              6   8   4.86  21  20   100.0   93   54  13   58   99 
Fikac                5   6   4.90  56   0    68.0   67   37  10   34   61 
Aardsma              5   6   4.91  55   0    66.0   63   36   5   44   52 
Valdez               5   7   5.02  23  21   120.0  122   67  20   52  103 
Cain                 7   8   5.05  24  24   130.0  125   73  19   70  119 
Looper               3   4   5.09  50   0    76.0   77   43  11   37   55 
Hennessey            7  10   5.25  26  26   144.0  159   84  17   70   73 
Cooper               8  11   5.35  26  25   148.0  176   88  26   43   62 
Levine               3   5   5.37  58   0    67.0   79   40   9   28   31 
Munter               2   4   5.37  48   1    67.0   75   40   7   36   30 
Randolph*            4   9   5.68  40  14   111.0  108   70  14   74   87 
Christiansen*        2   3   5.70  50   0    30.0   30   19   3   21   20 
Threets*             1   3   8.28  31   0    50.0   47   46   6   76   48 

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Bonds*             lf  .321  .541  .690 135 358  99 115 20  2 36  88 167  46  5  1 
Alou               lf  .271  .333  .453 145 543  74 147 32  2 21  83  51  75  3  0 
Durham#            2b  .277  .360  .444 125 477  84 132 29  6 13  59  59  72 11  6 
Alfonzo            3b  .282  .354  .407 141 521  64 147 27  1 12  69  55  42  2  1 
Cervenak           3b  .279  .333  .453 128 481  70 134 31  1 17  74  36  73  3  3 
Linden#            rf  .252  .329  .381 146 520  82 131 23  1 14  60  56 145  9  5 
Vizquel#           ss  .276  .335  .371 131 496  66 137 26  3  5  50  44  57 14  7 
Grissom            cf  .265  .297  .414 138 517  65 137 25  2 16  71  24  84  5  2 
Feliz              3b  .274  .303  .476 129 424  58 116 26  3 18  69  19  72  4  2 
Snow*              1b  .271  .382  .418 112 347  48  94 25  1  8  48  57  61  2  1 
Tucker*            rf  .246  .333  .392 130 439  62 108 21  5 11  52  57  98  7  7 
Ellison            lf  .271  .323  .370 135 495  73 134 25  3  6  42  35  63 21 15 
Cruz               ss  .271  .298  .395 146 491  52 133 30  2  9  58  18  43  1  3 
Dallimore          2b  .290  .344  .383 117 420  59 122 20  2  5  46  32  59  6  7 
Valderrama         cf  .265  .336  .376 109 412  56 109 21  2  7  39  42  85 13 12 
Shabala*           cf  .263  .319  .368 124 438  56 115 19  3  7  43  34  95 11 10 
Lewis*             cf  .239  .329  .331 122 435  67 104 15  5  5  35  56 116 20 15 
Torcato*           3b  .271  .297  .344 125 442  40 120 18  1  4  44  12  45  3  3 
Ortmeier#          rf  .240  .306  .372 113 387  52  93 21  3  8  40  34 106 12  9 
Knoedler           c   .244  .297  .364 114 390  52  95 22  2  7  38  27  93  7  3 
Matheny            c   .244  .301  .337 120 386  31  94 19  1  5  41  30  75  0  1 
Athas*             ss  .240  .302  .292 129 442  55 106 13  2  2  33  37 100 12  9 
Niekro             1b  .280  .313  .395  85 314  37  88 17  2  5  34  13  37  1  2 
Nunez#             lf  .233  .311  .363 109 322  47  75 16  1  8  37  36  84  7  5 
Ramirez            cf  .246  .276  .357 119 403  61  99 20  5  5  48  14 102 16 11 
Mendez             ss  .221  .283  .331 105 399  60  88 23  0  7  43  32 102  9  7 
Lunsford           c   .236  .297  .305 103 347  30  82 16  1  2  28  27  73  3  2 
Haad               c   .243  .289  .386  81 280  32  68 16  0  8  34  16  48  2  2 
Chavez             ss  .220  .259  .285 111 404  41  89 13  2  3  30  18  64 12  7 
Torrealba          c   .249  .316  .400  65 185  21  46  9  2  5  23  17  32  1  0 
Rodriguez          c   .203  .252  .323  71 217  18  44  7  2  5  21  13  37  2  1