Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Looking Forward to ... > Discussion
Looking Forward to ...
— BTF's Preseason Previews

Monday, April 11, 2005

Seattle Mariners Preview

The annual team preview is really the place where a good columnist can shine. After a solid year of carefully watching your favorite team's every move--all the surprises, disappointments, joy, and sorrow--after watching all their games, evaluating all their statistics, judging all their transactions, the best writers are in a unique position. They can weave all their meticulous and expert observations together with the wide array of emotions every baseball season brings about, and they can add to this tapestry their own wisdom, insight, and wit. The result is a beautiful, clear picture of where a team stands, enriched with the distinctive perspective of a clever and devoted fan and analyst.

Those previews are great. I strongly encourage you to read some.

Now, what happens when you have a fan--a true fan, sure--who is maybe just a little disillusioned with his team's showing from the prior year? And maybe he's also not quite paid much attention to baseball doings this off-season. Perhaps he's been distracted by a new job, in a new city, and maybe he's a bit tired of all the cynicism and hatred that seems inextricably tied to every baseball discussion, borne out of steroids arguments and labor disputes and fights over methods of analysis. And maybe there's more still: He's detached, uninspired, and the craft of writing that he once loved and practiced so ably and prolifically--that craft is now a chore, and he resents the very words he writes for the effort they required him to expend in their creation. And--to top it all off--maybe he's just not as devoted to the game of baseball as even he himself once thought.

What kind of preview does that writer write?

I suppose we'll find out together. Now, every decent author knows that there are two things that can really help the writing process: the gimmick, and the co-author. And I'm all out of gimmicks, so this piece will be a foray into the world of collaboration. A good collaboration is one in which both authors share the responsibility of creating an interesting and informative article, each complementing the other with their own particular strengths. A great collaboration, on the other hand, is one in which the other person does all the work and you get all the credit. Now, I have enlisted Shannon Kilpatrick to help write this preview. There are two key things that Shannon brings to this venture:

1. She actually knows things about the Seattle Mariners.

2. She actually makes the time to write those things down.

Those are the precise areas where I am weakest, so I think you can see that we are well on our way to a great collaboration.

The 2005 Seattle Mariners: We'll Get There Eventually

When Seattle's first white settlers (Denny, party of 24) set up shop in West Seattle in 1851, they imagined that their city would soon be as successful as New York--a hopeful sentiment understood by any baseball fan--and so they christened it "New York." When those lofty heights didn't come as readily as had been hoped--this expansion team of cities was struggling along--the word "Alki" was tacked on to the end of the name. "Alki," a Native American word meaning "by and by," was in time adopted as Washington's official state motto, as though the state wished to institutionalize a spirit of collective resignation--not hopelessness, but resignation: "Well, we're not there yet. But... we'll get there eventually."

Which is maybe a better motto than you'd initially give it credit for.

On June 6, 1889--a day short of one hundred years before the Mariners drafted Roger Salkeld--the new town of Seattle burned, and most of the downtown was destroyed. The steady progress, reasonable expectations, they were destroyed along with the city's buildings--a city, like a baseball team, can succumb to unexpected disaster. But the city's residents started anew--they sloughed the hilltops into Elliott Bay, leveling the city's steep slopes, expanding the area on which to build, and, in some places, burying the remnants of the old city underground. Atop the new land, they built wide avenues and buildings of brick and stone--they had learned from their disaster, and they had become the better for it. Immediately after the fire, Seattle experienced unprecedented growth.

It's a nice story. And whether the Seattle Mariners will similarly use their collapse as a chance to rebuild something even better remains to be seen. But occasionally, it's nice to imagine that a team's ties to its home city are more than geographic, and that there is some historic and philosophical connection--that somehow, by learning about one, you can learn something about the other. But that's probably just a fantasy.

So how good will the 2005 Mariners be? Probably better than the 2004 Mariners, sure. But I'm not going to try to predict what everyone will do and how many runs and therefore wins it will all add up to, because I'd be wrong anyway. So let's just take a brief look at who's actually on the team.

Some of the Players on the 2005 Mariners

Listen:

Jeff Nelson has come unstuck in time.

Jeff has gone to sleep a washed-up middle reliever and awakened on his major league debut. He has walked through a door in 2004 and come out another one in 1995. He has gone back through that door to find himself in 2001.

He is Ross, and the Mariners are Rachel, and somehow we always knew that after all the highs and lows, they would end up together. He's pitched for the Yankees against the Mariners in the ALCS (they were on a break!), and he's pitched for the Mariners against the Yankees in the ALCS. He's a Seattle institution, just like the monorail--constantly moving back and forth and occasionally going up in flames.

Jeff Nelson returning to the Mariners is an omen of great significance. I have no idea what it signifies. But if anything interesting happens, it was foretold by this event.

Allegedly, the starting catcher for the Mariners this year is Miguel Olivo. Olivo came to the Mariners in 2004 with something to prove: That it is indeed possible to hit worse than Dan Wilson. Now that he's succeeded in that goal, Olivo has the chance to follow through on the promise he showed in Chicago. This chance should last for at least a few days before the Mariners hand the starting job back to Wilson. Dan Wilson is a Seattle institution as well, like the Smith Tower--he's tall enough that he would have seemed really tall a long time ago, and he's pretty old, too.

The Mariners decided to pay a lot of money to make Richie Sexson their starting first baseman. In 2003, Sexson became the first player to play every inning of every game since [if I had a research assistant, there would be a name and year here]. But in 2004, he missed most of the season with an injury. He's an absolute horse, though injury-prone--a guy you can absolutely count on to be in the lineup all season, as long as he's not hurt--which he very likely will be, considering his history (but if you look at his past, he's almost a sure bet to be healthy). Sexson plans to endear himself to Mariner fans by hitting two home runs in the opener, though at the time of this writing, it is unclear whether he will actually manage to do so. It has been rumored that Sexson was signed to help lure new third baseman Adrian Beltre to the team. If those rumors are true, then the first five words of the previous sentence were unnecessary.

The Mariners signed Beltre after discovering an embarrassing mix-up--the front office had mistakenly believed all these years that Edgar Martinez was still playing third base. As soon as they learned of their error, they went out and signed a real third baseman. With any luck, Beltre will hit a kajillion homers this year.

At second base for the Mariners is Bret Boone, whose arrogance and propensity for flipping his bat after home runs have helped writers come up with dependent clauses for years. Boone is a pretty good and occasionally great hitter for a second baseman, though his hitting is often the subject of misguided criticism. This is because he's made a lot of money ever since he had an MVP-caliber season in 2001. The Mariners have some problems, but the amount of money they pay for Bret Boone's performance is a pretty minor one. Boone is a Seattle institution, like the Space Needle--he's existed since the 60s, and he's still pretty neat, but he costs a little too much money now.

The shortstop for the Mariners is... uh... hmm... Wilson Valdez? Really? Pokey Reese should have the job once he's off the DL--his defense is purportedly fantastic, and his hitting--did I mention his defense? As for this Wilson Valdez guy, I know nothing about him, so I'll fabricate something. It will probably be more interesting than the truth.

The fourteenth child of a fifty-year-old union between a poor goat herder and the first Dominican woman to land on the moon, Wilson Valdez left his hometown of Bani, Dominican Republic at age ten to become an actor. So touched was he by his first role, "man in coma" on General Hospital, that he quit the acting profession to pursue a career in medicine. With nothing but the shirt on his back and several million dollars spread across a number of offshore accounts, Valdez enrolled at the College of Medicine for Little Kids. It was there, at a friend's birthday party, that he discovered his aptitude for hitting after successfully striking a piñata on the fourteenth attempt. Reasoning that a baseball was just like a piñata, except instead of being a colorful donkey full of candy hung from the ceiling, it was a small white projectile hurled with incredible velocity and control by a professional athlete, Valdez decided to become a baseball player. After toiling in the independent Siberian Gulag Association for ten years, he attracted the attention of a Marlins scout by reflecting sunlight with a small shaving mirror. Three hot air balloon rides and one trade for Billy Koch later, Valdez realized his childhood dream of playing shortstop at US Cellular Field. I didn't mention that earlier, but that was his childhood dream before the acting thing. Then he came to the Mariners and filled in for the injured Pokey Reese. Apparently.

At left field, the Mariners have Randy Winn. Winn put up a .346/.425 line for Seattle in 2003, his first year with the team, but in 2004, he cranked those numbers all the way up to .346/.427. Randy Winn is a Seattle institution, too, like Mount Rainier--he's there every year, never doing anything different, until one day you look up and he's gone, and he's wiped out the town of Orting with his glacial meltwater.

Jeremy Reed, who arrived with Miguel Olivo when the Mariners traded Freddy Garcia to the White Sox, will help the Mariners fulfill their plan to have the best outfield in baseball that hits fewer than 20 home runs combined. The Mariners have not had an outfielder hit a home run since September 18 (through April 9)--a span of 19 games. That should be an interesting streak to watch. Reed has some potential to be a pretty good player, though.

And in right, the Mariners of course still feature the ever-popular Ichiro Suzuki. Some have called Ichiro the best Mariner rightfielder since Jay Buhner. In 2005, look for Ichiro to run fast, get lots of infield hits, and have a high batting average (man, that's good prescience). Ichiro combines an exciting style of play with the build and facial hair of a 100-year-old woman, and the result is one of the most entertaining players in baseball. Last year, Ichiro got so many hits that schoolchildren will no longer be able to reverently recite the name "George Sisler" to their schoolchums. Ichiro is a Seattle institution, like Microsoft--everyone loves him. Everyone.

At designated hitter, the Mariners have Raul Ibañez. Last year in Seattle, Ibañez posted the best OPS+ of his career at 121. (You totally thought his best OPS+ came with the Royals, didn't you? Admit it.) He's a pretty decent hitter. He's also a Seattle institution, like Edgar Martinez--he's the designated hitter for the Mariners.

On the bench, the Mariners have Willie Bloomquist, Scott Spiezio, Justin Leone, and Greg Dobbs (and that Valdez guy). Seattle may be the only team in baseball that can honestly say they're five players deep at third base. If a Mariner outfielder gets injured, the Mariners will simply leave his spot empty and enjoy a slight increase in the number of home runs they hit. The other two will be fast enough that there will be a minimal impact on their defense. There's nothing particularly exciting about these players. Willie Bloomquist, though, is a Seattle institution, like the Bremerton Ferry--he came from Kitsap County and a lot of Seattleites are waiting impatiently for him to go back.

And Shannon will now discuss the team's pitchers and manager Mike Hargrove:

I feel like the Magic 8 Ball has a better chance of accurately predicting what the M’s starting rotation will do this year than anyone else does. Jamie Moyer, Joel Piñeiro, Gil Meche, Bobby Madritsch and Aaron Sele. Doesn't exactly inspire confidence, does it? Question marks abound: Can Moyer rebound after giving up an eye-popping 44 HR's last year? Which Gil Meche will show up, Jekyll or Hyde? Can Joel Piñeiro stay healthy and pitch like a top of the rotation guy the M's expect him to be? Can Bobby Madritsch continue his performance after being called up in the second half of last year? Why must Bill Bavasi torment me by bringing back Aaron Sele?

Bobby Madritsch

Bobby Madritsch, the 29 year old lefty pitcher signed out of the Independent League, was the Mariners’ best pitcher last year, and one of the very few reasons to go to the ballpark. He has incredible drive and pitches with a chip on his shoulder, never backing down. Emotionally, he is the exact opposite of Freddy Garcia, who frustrated fans by seemingly needing a good psychologist. Plus Madritsch has such a great life story (as described by Jim Caple, for example), he’s hard not to root for.

Last year in 11 starts and 88 IP Madritsch posted a 3.27 ERA. He has an amazing ability to keep the ball in the yard – in those 88 IP he only allowed 3 HR. Checking his minor league stats shows that in 158.2 IP at AA, he allowed 11 HR and in 62.1 IP at AAA he allowed just 3 HR. Of concern is how he’ll hold up over the course of the season after being the 7th most abused pitcher in baseball last year, according to Pitcher Abuse Points.

Gil Meche

2004 is the tale of two pitchers for Gil. He started off the season last year TERRIBLY, posting a 7.06 ERA before being sent down to AAA Tacoma in June. After working out a kink in his mechanics, Meche returned to the Mariners and posted a 3.48 ERA in August and 3.96 ERA in September. So will the real Gil Meche please stand up? The good news is that Meche stayed healthy the entire year and he’s only 26. Meche probably has the best “stuff” on the Mariners major league squad, he just has never put together a consistent and healthy full season. 2005 could be that breakout season the organization keeps expecting him to have, or his arm could literally fall off. Neither would surprise me. I say a little prayer to the baseball gods every night for Meche’s health.

Jamie Moyer

What a disastrous 2004. The “crafty” veteran was not so crafty, as the pinpoint control he has always relied upon seemed to disappear overnight. As mentioned above, he gave up 44 HR last year, putting him 5th on the all time list, and had a 5.21 ERA. Ouch. Not good times. So at age 42, has Moyer finally fallen off the cliff? Part of the problem is that Moyer’s HR last year were so far out of line with his career numbers (from 2001-2003 he had 24, 28, and 19 HR, respectively), that I’m hesitant to say he is as bad as his numbers were last year, especially considering his strikeout rate stayed roughly the same. He’ll be better this year, but unfortunately, I don’t think Moyer will rebound to pre-2004 form. I’d be happy with 200 innings and an ERA in the low 4’s from him.

Joel Piñeiro

Last year, Piñeiro had the worst season of his young career, posting a 4.67 ERA and giving up 21 HR in 141 IP. He spent the last two months of the season last year on the DL with a strained flexor bundle in his right arm. He had career worsts in just about every major category.

However, it is easy to forget that Piñeiro is only 26 years old. He’s thrown 641 innings since making his debut in 2000. I’m no Will Carroll, but I do worry about a major arm/shoulder injury with him.

Piñeiro is one of the pitchers who should be helped considerably by a better defense this year, as his BABIP last year was .299. He is also greatly aided by playing half his games at Safeco Field. Over the last 3 years, Piñeiro has posted a 3.25 ERA at Safeco while a 4.45 ERA on the road (something to factor in for those of you who have him on your fantasy teams). In Seattle, we’re hoping 2004 was just an aberration. In 2002 and 2003, he posted a VORP of 54.1 and 49.3, respectively. If Piñeiro can stay healthy (a big 'if', I realize) and return to 2002-2003 form, he can be a strong #2 starter.

Aaron Sele

I did the pitchers alphabetically to put off talking about Aaron Sele as long as possible. Sele was signed to a minor league contract in the off season and then went on to win the 5th spot in the rotation by virtue of his strong performance in spring training.

Unfortunately for the Mariners, Sele hasn’t been a good pitcher since the 2001 season. His strikeouts have declined, and his walks and HR’s have increased. I’m no fan of Ryan Franklin, but Aaron Sele is worse than the guy he bumped from the rotation. 34 years old and one shoulder surgery behind him, I’m not sure what the M’s think Sele can contribute. Last year he had 51 K, 51 BB, 16 HR in 132 IP and a 5.05 ERA. His VORP was 7.4. Perhaps the hope is that pitching behind the good Mariners defense in spacious Safeco Field will bring down his numbers some, as his BABIP last year was .320. (Yeah right.) Thankfully, he’s only the 5th starter, and shouldn’t be a huge factor once Piñeiro comes back from the DL. (Knock on wood)

Bullpen

Eddie Guardado, LHP – closer
Ron Villone, LHP
Matt Thornton, LHP

JJ Putz, RHP
Jeff Nelson, RHP
Shigetoshi Hasegawa, RHP
Ryan Franklin, RHP
Julio Mateo, RHP

The only reason Matt Thornton made the team is that he’s a former #1 draft pick who is out of options and the M’s aren’t willing to give up on a lefty who throws 95 mph. Unfortunately, Thornton’s command sucks. Last year in AAA, he allowed 85 hits and 63 walks in 83 innings. That’s a heck of a lot of base runners. We’ll see how long the Thornton experiment lasts.

JJ Putz stepped into the closers role last year when “Every so often” Eddie went on the DL. He had 9 saves and a misleading 4.71 ERA. In August and September, as a closer, his ERA was 3.24 and 1.29, respectively. Yes, that’s extremely small sample size, but his 12/1 strikeout to walk ratio in those months is encouraging. He should be the main setup guy behind “Every so often” Eddie and the M’s appear to be grooming him for the closer role.

Jeff Nelson walked nearly as many people as he struck out last year. He will fill the role of the ROOGY. I have no idea why this team needs one, but there you go.

Shiggy shouldn’t pitch as poorly as he did last year, but he’s still not worth much more than replacement level.

Franklin and Villone will pitch long relief and should be fairly effective (both post better numbers out of the bullpen than in the starting rotation).

Guardado went down with a shoulder injury last August and there are conflicting reports whether there was an actual tear in the rotator cuff. He rested the last two months of the season instead of having surgery and the M’s are just holding their collective breath in hopes Guardado stays healthy and effective. I have to admit I was very relieved that Guardado had a 1-2-3 9th inning in the first game on Monday.

What should happen once Piñeiro comes off the DL is Thornton should be put on waivers. However because Mateo still has options left, he could be the odd man out.

Others of Note

Felix Hernandez – the future of the organization, regarded by most as the top pitching prospect in baseball. I can’t rave enough about this guy. He has a fastball in the mid to upper 90s, has an excellent curve ball, and rumor has it he has a plus slider too which could be his best pitch, although the organization is loathe to let him throw it. (Which presents the question, how does anyone know if its his best pitch if he’s never thrown it when it counts? And he turns 19 on April 8th.

However, we all know the M’s track record of ruining young pitchers. Fortunately, the Mariners seem to be taking the long term view and are taking it slowly with him. So far, he’s dominated at every level. In 2004 he split time between A Inland Empire and AA San Antonio. In 92.0 IP at the A level, he had 85 hits, 26 walks and an incredible 114 strikeouts. At AA San Antonio in 57.1 innings, he allowed 47 hits and 21 walks while striking out 58. He could use the extra time in the minor leagues to work a bit on his control as his walks appear to be on the rise a bit, and I’d like to see how he adjusts to the AAA level for a half a season before even thinking of promoting him. Despite the fact he will start the season either in AA or AAA, an appearance in Seattle at some point by King Felix seems inevitable, barring any sort of catastrophe.

Rafael Soriano – after becoming the top set-up man for the M’s in 2003 (struck out 68 in 53.0 IP), Soriano underwent Tommy John surgery in August, 2004. He features a mid-90s fastball and a hard slider. Reports are that Soriano’s recovery is ahead of schedule and he could be pitching by July. If all goes well, there’s a possibility he could pitch for the M’s again this year, although hopefully not until August or September.

Mike Hargrove

Mike Hargrove was hired by the Mariners in October, 2004 after the firing of Bob Melvin a mere months after picking up Melvin’s contract option. Hargrove becomes the 11th manager in Mariners history. Coming into the season he has a career record of 996-963 and has won 5 division titles and two American League titles. He'll be the 51st manager to make it to 1,000 wins.

Looking back at the teams he has managed before, Hargrove had a lot of success in 9 years in Cleveland and four terrible years in Baltimore. What does this tell us about how he’ll do with the Mariners? Honestly, I don’t have a clue. I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt for his time in Baltimore because he wasn't given the tools he needed to succeed. And I do think the current Mariner team will benefit from Hargrove’s experiences managing both young teams and older veteran teams.

His in-game philosophy, as told to the Seattle P-I after his hiring, is:

"My preference, obviously, is three or four guys in the lineup that can really mash the ball and a bunch of guys that can run," Hargrove said. "I think that you manage to the talent you have on hand. Given a choice, I like to hit and run, I like to steal, I like to double steal, I like to squeeze. But that's not always the best thing to do to score runs. But I'd rather be aggressive than sit back and wait."

His willingness to be flexible is encouraging. And he can’t be any worse than Melvin’s often-incomprehensible bullpen management.

Plus Hargrove seems to have a heck of a lot more personality than Melvin, which has to count for something. When asked by sports columnist (and I use that word loosely in this case) Jim Moore of the Seattle P-I what the craziest thing he had ever done was, Hargrove responded with a story about how he rode a horse into a bar one night after a few drinks in Oklahoma. Now that's good stuff. Link: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/196342_moore22.html

While I’m still not sure what to think yet of Hargrove, I think the Mariners could have done a lot worse. Was Hargrove the best choice for the M's at the time? I don't know. Was he the best choice from the small group of candidates the M's chose from? I think so. Is he an upgrade over Melvin? Absolutely.

Those interested in in-depth analysis of Hargrove's strengths and weaknesses should read two articles Derek Zumsteg wrote for his weekly column in the Seattle P-I, one on Hargrove's handling of pitching staffs, and one on Hargrove in general.

Which brings us back to Dan Werr:

Whatever happens, the Mariners will win and lose some games, and those games will be fun to watch, no matter how many they end up winning and how many they end up losing. That's the whole point of this sport, I think. I'm not going to delve into the front office because too many speculative musings about what does and does not go on there have already been written, many of them by me, and at this point, there's nothing new to say on the subject. So as this season plays out on the field, we'll just hope that more things go right than wrong, and that some of the young players the Mariners are putting faith in are the beginning of better things to come.

2005 ZiPS Projections

Name          ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER   BB    K  HR 
Soriano      3.48   5   3  36  12    93.0   80   36   28   97  10 
Guardado*    3.95   3   2  58   0    57.0   53   25   16   54   8 
Pineiro      3.97  12  10  30  27   179.0  173   79   57  138  19 
Nelson       4.02   2   3  51   0    47.0   39   21   26   50   4 
Sherrill*    4.06   4   4  48   0    62.0   58   28   21   59   8 
Mateo        4.17   2   2  47   0    69.0   69   32   17   56  11 
Hernandez    4.19   9   9  26  25   144.0  128   67   64  143  17 
Hasegawa     4.30   4   5  62   0    67.0   68   32   27   39   5 
Atchison     4.50   6   7  45   9   108.0  105   54   43   92  15 
Heaverlo     4.54   3   4  23  23   115.0  120   58   43   63  12 
Baek         4.58   6   8  22  20   106.0  108   54   38   75  14 
Moyer*       4.72  10  13  34  33   206.0  220  108   63  128  31 
Madritsch*   4.80   7  11  27  25   148.0  143   79   84  109  14 
Putz         4.85   1   2  53   0    78.0   79   42   36   55  10 
Reichert     4.88   3   6  50   2    83.0   80   45   48   64   8 
Meche        4.90   8  12  30  30   169.0  172   92   68  128  27 
Villone*     5.00   6  10  47  15   126.0  126   70   67   91  15 
Sele         5.02   6  10  26  25   138.0  152   77   56   60  16 
Franklin     5.05   9  13  32  32   198.0  223  111   62  100  32 
Kida         5.09   2   3  22  10    76.0   81   43   27   49  13 
Looper       5.09   3   4  50   0    76.0   77   43   37   55  11 
Nageotte     5.18   6  11  26  23   132.0  127   76   84  102  14 
Buglovsky    5.44   5  10  26  25   144.0  157   87   74   76  19 
Green        5.72   2   5  49   1    74.0   81   47   45   37   9 
Blackley*    6.02   6  13  26  25   142.0  152   95   88   98  25 
Thornton*    6.03   4   8  26  14    91.0   86   61   85   70   8 
Evert        6.34   3   7  32  16   105.0  110   74   68   86  22 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Ichiro!*     rf  .343  .390  .436 161 697 239 28  5  9 101  60  53  63 29 14 
Beltre       3b  .292  .346  .528 162 614 179 32  1 37  86 121  51  93  5  3 
Sexson       1b  .262  .370  .494 143 538 141 24  1 33  74  99  87 124  1  2 
Winn#        lf  .286  .348  .424 158 625 179 37  5 13  87  78  54 100 19  8 
Boone        2b  .255  .326  .445 151 595 152 31  2 26  78  94  60 119 10  5 
Ibanez*      lf  .284  .339  .456 138 528 150 31  3 18  69  77  43  73  4  3 
Reed*        cf  .285  .360  .412 148 527 150 24  5 11  73  58  58  55 39 16 
Jacobsen     1b  .268  .352  .514 120 422 113 24  1 26  64  82  53 111  1  1 
Choo*        cf  .271  .337  .397 127 469 127 12  7 11  72  55  44  92 32 17 
Leone        3b  .240  .333  .455 114 391  94 22  4 18  72  61  52 107  9  4 
Spiezio#     3b  .249  .325  .402 138 450 112 25  4 12  55  60  49  58  5  3 
Lopez        ss  .257  .296  .402 134 505 130 23  1 16  78  66  24  59  9  5 
Dobbs*       3b  .257  .290  .384 133 482 124 19  3 12  50  57  19  74 10  6 
Lopez#       2b  .247  .324  .355 115 397  98 19  3  6  55  37  42  55 11 10 
Strong       cf  .277  .366  .339  89 339  94 11  2  2  48  27  46  55 21 14 
Morse        ss  .232  .271  .396 108 384  89 18  3 13  42  49  18  85  3  1 
Olivo        c   .244  .305  .403 104 340  83 18  3 10  45  41  27  80  9  8 
Pellow       1b  .235  .288  .425 102 332  78 16  1 15  38  44  21  79  1  2 
Nunez#       lf  .233  .311  .363 109 322  75 16  1  8  47  37  36  84  7  5 
Valdez       ss  .258  .301  .315 104 387 100 13  3  1  50  26  21  48 23 14 
Snelling*    cf  .302  .343  .446  58 222  67 10  2  6  30  29  13  39  3  4 
Christianson c   .237  .298  .363  78 278  66 12  1  7  35  31  22  61  2  1 
Santiago#    ss  .216  .286  .280 114 371  80 11  2  3  44  28  31  53 10  6 
Wilson       c   .243  .289  .321 103 321  78 14  1  3  25  33  21  58  0  1 
Bloomquist   3b  .253  .312  .342  95 257  65 12  1  3  37  26  22  45 12  5 
Rivera       c   .210  .253  .288 116 385  81 13  1  5  37  33  19  80  0  1 
Reese        2b  .226  .290  .302  96 288  65 11  1  3  25  23  26  62  7  1 
Gonzalez     c   .243  .321  .355  54 169  41 11  1  2  15  20  19  25  0  0 
Garbe        cf  .166  .235  .223 104 337  56 13  0  2  31  21  27  68 11  7
 
ZiPS Projections are not playing time predictors; they project a player's performance given playing time in the majors in their accustomed role. As with all projections, specific knowledge of non-statistical attributes of the player and role should temper what the computer says.
Dan Werr and Shannon Kilpatrick Posted: April 11, 2005 at 09:47 AM | 19 comment(s)
  Related News: Seattle

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 1 of 1 pages
   1. The definitely immoral Eric Enders Posted: April 11, 2005 at 11:10 AM (#1247279)
Best. Season. Preview. Ever. And I'm giving all the credit to Shannon, because I know better than to believe Werr could come up with any of that on his own.

P.S. I've taken the Bremerton Ferry. Does that mean I've ridden Willie Bloomquist?
   2. Gromit45 Posted: April 11, 2005 at 11:50 AM (#1247356)
"Friends" analogies and "General Hospital" references???

Run Away!
   3. Mattbert Posted: April 11, 2005 at 12:20 PM (#1247433)
Hilaripus. Perhaps even handstakingly so.

Ichiro = Microsquish was kind of a surprise, though. Up to that point in the preview, I was totally expecting Ichiro = Starbucks (pretty darn good, but slightly overrated, overpriced, and not without a tinge of the sinister on account of pervasive marketing).
   4. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: April 11, 2005 at 12:46 PM (#1247507)
He's an absolute horse, though injury-prone--a guy you can absolutely count on to be in the lineup all season, as long as he's not hurt--which he very likely will be, considering his history (but if you look at his past, he's almost a sure bet to be healthy).

The whole preview was RDF writing, but that description of Sexson made me almost fall out of my chair.

Nice job Dan & Shannon.
   5. The Clarence Thomas of BTF (scott) Posted: April 11, 2005 at 02:16 PM (#1247797)
this was a pretty amazing season preview.

that sexson part was fanfuckingtastic.
   6. Tango Tiger Posted: April 11, 2005 at 03:37 PM (#1248405)
Great job... loved reading it!
   7. otrosuff Posted: April 11, 2005 at 05:03 PM (#1249078)
That made my day. Wilson Valdez' amazing journey to the major leagues was great.
   8. AlouGoodbye Posted: April 11, 2005 at 06:20 PM (#1249229)
"Friends" analogies and "General Hospital" references???

Also Kurt Vonnegut - some serious culture squeezed in with the craptacular.

I would like to second the motion - Best. Preview. Ever.
   9. Ned Garvin: Male Prostitute Posted: April 11, 2005 at 08:04 PM (#1249329)
Willie Bloomquist + Bremerton Ferry = $$$$
   10. SMK Posted: April 12, 2005 at 12:43 PM (#1250767)
Ichiro = Microsquish was kind of a surprise, though. Up to that point in the preview, I was totally expecting Ichiro = Starbucks (pretty darn good, but slightly overrated, overpriced, and not without a tinge of the sinister on account of pervasive marketing).

No no no. Matt hasn't lived in Seattle long enough to truly appreciate Ichiro! We don't EVER suggest that he's overrated or overpaid. Ever. Just like we don't with Microsoft. Ever.

It haunts me that 2 days after I wrote the the pitching part of the preview, Madritsch goes out and tears a ligament in his shoulder. Damn you Bob Melvin.
   11. penguinmobile Posted: April 12, 2005 at 11:48 PM (#1252177)
You know, back in that "New York Alki" section, something that's little known even in Seattle is that "alki" was pronounced as "alky" up until Prohibition, when the city decided that it sounded too much like the slang term for a drunkard, so they changed the pronounciation to "al-kiy."

Uhm. So yeah. When's the next meetup?
   12. bibigon Posted: April 13, 2005 at 02:33 AM (#1252400)
This was distressingly good.

Actually, it got me in a bit of trouble in my lit class. I printed out a copy, and was sneaking peaks at it during class. I was doing alright for a while, but when I got to the Olivo bit, I started to crack a bit, and by the time I'd read the Sexson, Boone, and Valdez parts, I was openly laughing, and I just could not contain myself. I had to excuse myself from the room for a few minutes in the end.
   13. Dan 'The Boy' Werr Posted: April 13, 2005 at 10:09 AM (#1252605)
I really appreciate the nice comments. And I want to really thank Shannon who did a fantastic job and deserves at least as much credit for this as I do.

that "alki" was pronounced as "alky" up until Prohibition

I did not know this. I used to work on a street called Alki, and people always wanted to pronounce it "alky."

Uhm. So yeah. When's the next meetup?

Why, are you trying to solidify your alternate plans?
   14. insert wtticism Posted: April 13, 2005 at 05:45 PM (#1253857)
soso prev...dial down snark
   15. penguinmobile Posted: April 13, 2005 at 10:53 PM (#1255252)
Why, are you trying to solidify your alternate plans?

Whatever they are, I'm sure they're going to be good.
   16. StopBooingAbreu Posted: April 14, 2005 at 01:06 AM (#1255449)
Wow, I think the previews were by and far pretty decent this year.

This, however, truly was exceptional and it read wonderfully. Sometimes, when reading about teams that necesarily bore you, the Royals, Brewers, and Mariners for me, its hard to get through. Not this one.

Congtats Shannon (Dan has had his share)
   17. Elevate Phil Coorey Later Posted: April 14, 2005 at 05:20 AM (#1255660)
I loved it!!! I was laughing out loud most of the time. Well done!

This has been a great preview year.
   18. Ziggy Posted: April 19, 2005 at 09:07 PM (#1271839)
Dan and Shannon have been congratulated enough. No more for you.
(You can construe this as a congratulation if you want.)

I'm really impressed with the Ichiro projection. 239 hits?! I guess that's regressing to the mean when you set the new hit record the previous season, but yikes!
   19. vortex of dissipation Posted: April 20, 2005 at 08:19 PM (#1274227)
When Seattle's first white settlers (Denny, party of 24) set up shop in West Seattle in 1851, they imagined that their city would soon be as successful as New York--a hopeful sentiment understood by any baseball fan--and so they christened it "New York." When those lofty heights didn't come as readily as had been hoped--this expansion team of cities was struggling along--the word "Alki" was tacked on to the end of the name.

Well, that would certainly explain the Statue of Liberty across the street from the Alki Bakery...

Very nice article!
Page 1 of 1 pages

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

<< Back to main

Support BBTF

donate

My Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Vivid Seats is a sports ticket broker, concert ticket broker and theater ticket broker offering the best baseball tickets like Yankees tickets, Cubs tickets, and Red Sox tickets, as well as Police reunion tour tickets and Jersey Boys tickets.

Ticket Nest sells Braves, Cubs, Padres, Indians, Marlins, Nuts, Pirates, Rangers, Patriots, Royals, Stars, Tides, Tigers, Twins, Phillies, Wings, Mets, Yankees, Angels, Dodgers tickets, and Dragons tickets.

Buy Cheap MLB Tickets

Concerts Theatre NFL Angels Dodgers MLB Celtics Theater NBA Tickets Venues NHL Lakers Tickets NFL Yankees NHL Phillies NBA Wicked Marlins MLB Concerts Cubs Mets Red Sox Wicked WWE Red Sox Mets Yankees Dodgers

Page rendered in 0.9684 seconds
63 querie(s) executed