Tampa Bay Devil Rays Preview

The 2004 off-season marked the highest expectations the Tampa Bay franchise had ever experienced. Despite major weaknesses in its starting rotation, the Devil Rays entered the season with the strength of an underrated bullpen and a core of young, exciting position players that built a semblance of buzz around the team. Manager Lou Pinella raised the stakes for his underpaid charges by promising that the Rays would not finish in the basement that season – a vow mocked by an incredulous public as much as for its low standard as for being a preposterous overreach.

The team, suitably inspired, performed at a modestly mediocre level through April before a May implosion. A stretch of 12 losses in 13 games brought their record to 18 games below .500 as early as May 19, when their record stood at 10-28.

Oddly, and in a manifestation of resilience totally foreign to the Devil Rays franchise, the Rays yo-yoed back to positive ground and whipped a platoon of All-Star-caliber pitchers in the process. By the end of June, the Rays had accomplished the record-setting feat of posting a winning record after being so many games below.500. A 20-8 June record, highlighted by a franchise-record 12-game winning streak, placed the team solidly in third, and, with just three and a half games separating them from the stagnating Red Sox, fans dared hope for at least a season-long flirtation with the .500 mark, if not the ability to give the AL East’s big boys pause.

Though they were able to tread water through July, the Rays’ efforts finally turned into a free-fall in August and September. Over their last 49 games, the Rays went 16-33, driving fans away and ending a once-promising season with a long collapse. Even more worrisome, several of the Rays’ marquee names, particularly Aubrey Huff, began to make the kinds of despairing statements typical of the long-term loser - an affliction that seems to strike every Devil Ray eventually. Although the Rays met their goal of not finishing in last place, the late-season let-down made this more of a concession than an accomplishment.

Instead of building on the progress, however, the off-season thickened the Devil Rays’ natural pall of hopelessness. Rocco Baldelli, once the poster child for the Rays’ philosophy of team-building through strike-zone-deficient young athletes, blew out his knee in a backyard Wiffleball game. With Mark Hendrickson penciled in as the Opening Day starter, the starting staff could once again be among the American League’s worst. Serviceable players such as Jose Cruz, Jr., have left and new arrivals have been players who couldn’t break into the starting lineups on below-average teams. Young players like B.J. Upton have major question marks and won’t likely sniff the big leagues on Opening Day. Frankly put, this season will be put-up-or-shut-up time for the Devil Rays, who have foisted their penny-squeezing, tools-loving, hope-despoiling philosophy of general management on the sickened public for too many years. Either they win to a much greater degree than in the past, or the entire management structure should be leveled, J.P. Riccardi-style.

Infield

(Statistics following the position are the 2004 AL positional averages. Those following the player are the player’s averages over the past three years, or, if the player has played less than three years, the career averages.)

First Base (2004 AL avg. .266/.346/.447) – Travis Lee (3-year avg. .267/.337/.422)

Travis Lee was not horrible for the Devil Rays as their regular first baseman two years ago. The 6-foot-3-inch lefty hit .275 with 19 homers and 37 doubles that season before going to the Yankees and winning Big Stein’s money. The signing didn’t do the Yankees any good; Lee spent the entire 2004 season on the DL with a torn labrum.

Although Doug Mientkiewicz may have the name, a recovered Lee has similar defensive chops and could save the Rays more than a dozen runs over the course of the season, plus, he hits as well as or better than the departed Tino Martinez. Lee’s defense elevates him to being an average first sacker, which makes him a player who could help the Rays aspire to .500.

Second Base (.259/.320/.397) – Roberto Alomar (.262/.331/.367)/Jorge Cantu (.301/.341/.462)

In the off-season, the Devil Rays benched a 22-year-old second baseman who broke out for 24 home runs, 97 RBIs, and an OPS in the high .800s in favor of a piece of toast. To be fair, Cantu did his work over two minor-league levels in addition to the majors, but Cantu still hit .301 with 20 doubles in only 50 major league games.

A Devil Rays’ hallmark is a tendency to gather very young players and, as these players verge on success, pulverize their egos like grapes. Why did Aubrey Huff get 126 ABs at AAA Durham during his .313/.364/.520 rookie year? To work on his defense. Cantu is in a similar position. Instead of seeing what Cantu can do well, and maximizing it, they focus on what Cantu cannot do well – buy a cigar without getting his ID checked – and bench him. On a team that considers an out-of-position third baseman who cannot break a .300 OBP an “exciting” player, benching Cantu is a perverse joke. Unlike the experiment with “The Bad Alex” Gonzalez, however, the sight of Alomar at 2B will probably go on all year. That said, Alomar hasn’t yet sunk to the level of ineptitude exhibited by former Tampa Bay second basemen (Brent Abernathy, anyone?), so it could be worse. He’ll probably be slightly below average, probably acceptable for a team without aspirations. Of course, it’s possible that Alomar will mentor Cantu into a Hall of Fame career, with Cantu asking Alomar make his Cooperstown introduction. We’ll all regret making fun of toast then, won’t we?

Shortstop (.274/.327/.420) – Julio Lugo (.271/.333/.399)

Although clubhouse chemistry has been unquantifiable to sabermetricians, it might not be to a good research psychologist with unfettered clubhouse access and cooperative players, both unattainable. Thus, chemistry continues to be derided by otherwise clear-eyed sabermetricians, even though their comments about chemistry are just as anecdote-based as those who overly elevate the concept. In the Devil Rays’ case, however, the clubhouse has often been a Pit of Despair, so players who show a bit of liveliness are a welcome change.

Around the time of his 2003 wife-beating trial, which eventually ended in acquittal, Lugo was hardly considered a clubhouse asset. The Astros handled his employment in same way they would a handful of plutonium pellets. With the Devil Rays, however, Lugo received not only redemption, but a leading role in their modest rise, with Pinella suggesting that Lugo has become something of a clubhouse leader. Now entering his sixth full season, the 29-year-old Lugo is the ultimate Devil Rays anomaly – a veteran who is not washed up.

Lugo has his flaws – he can lose concentration in the field, resulting in higher than average error totals – but he has established himself as a gap-hitting middle infielder with a decent bat and doubles power. (Lugo hit a career-high 41 doubles in 2004.) He also just signed a contract extension (one year plus a team option) that figures to keep him in bug-eye blue for at least 2005. All this, plus the excitement of a man who lists among his major 2005 goals, “more home runs, more RBIs, a lot more average … and a lot more interviews.” That’s clubhouse chemistry and clutch leadership combined, friends. As far as shortstops who won’t hurt you go, Lugo is the complete, serviceable package.

Third Base (.269/.343/.449) – Alex S. Gonzalez (.235/.295/.406)/B. J. Upton (.258/.324/.409)

Let’s start with the assumption that Devil Ray front office denizens are not functionally illiterate, lobotomized, or suffering from senile dementia. The literacy rate of MLB front offices nears 100%, while the dementia and lobotomy rates hover close to zero. This means that such facile explanations for the Devil Rays’ performance to date are unlikely.

Even so, the Rays clearly suffer from a pathological condition. Among other evidence, the record shows: • Multiple apparent self-inflicted injuries • Dramatic history of serious problems • Symptoms that change or worsen as treatment is begun • Lengthy treatment history with little functional improvement

These and other symptoms suggest one diagnosis: Munchausen's Syndrome, a disorder in which a patient seeks attention by assuming a sick role. The classic, if disgusting, example of a Munchausen-style injury: Abscesses caused by deliberately injecting one’s own spit under the skin.

Meet the spit. In a league where the average 3B hit .269/.343/.449, the Devil Rays signed a player with a career line of .242/.302/.392, which essentially proclaimed their impoverishment of both money and imagination to both the baseball world and the West-Central Florida fan base. The mind boggles.

Some sanity may evolve by the end of the season, assuming that the long-term plan for B. J. Upton is at 3B. Upton rivals Delmon Young for the title of Rays’ most exciting young hitter. Unfortunately, his defense as a shortstop is legendarily atrocious. In 228 minor league games, Upton made 91 errors, and topped that with seven errors in 16 games at short as a major leaguer. The team quickly yanked Upton to third, where he played 13 games, but they also played him 13 games as a DH. Upton’s arm strength is much commented upon, so if 3B doesn’t work out, watch for him in right field. For the Devil Rays’ sake, however, pray that Upton cuts it at third.

Catcher (.264/.326/.410) – Toby Hall(.255/.296/.374)/Kevin Cash (.173/.222/.262)

Toby Hall is what you get when you ask Mike Matheny to make pirate face. He’s still a defensive asset and, like Matheny, could win a Gold Glove when he gets to a team that can absorb his hitting deficiencies. As far as hitting goes, Hall has mastered the production of the infield pop fly and manufactures them with astonishing regularity. Even so, Hall is the catching profession’s Albert Pujols when compared to his backup, Kevin Cash, so Hall should get at least 400 at bats in 2005. Pity the Devil Rays if he doesn’t.

Why Kevin Cash is on the team is one of those quaint Florida oddities of the sort that keep people shaking their heads during visits to St. Augustine and Key West – he’s a hometown player. For the Devil Rays, hometown players are the opium in their hookah. In exchange for the Tampa native, and his .485 career OPS (an incomprehensible 24 OPS+), the Devil Rays gave up Chad Gaudin, the putative Slider Master, who is both five and a half years younger than Cash, who has K’ed more than 6 batters per 9 innings during his screwed-around-with MLB career, and whose 2004 K:BB ratio was 2:1. Although whispers in the media suggested Pinella wasn’t impressed with Gaudin’s slider in 2004, Gaudin’s peripherals were marginally improved over the previous season. No, the Devil Rays have more than one fetish. At 5-foot-11, scouts think Gaudin is short. With his 44% caught stealing rate last year, scouts think Cash has a nice arm. When he was hired to lead the Blue Jays, J. P. Ricciardi fired most of the scouts, which didn’t lead the Blue Jays out of the basement in 2004, but did get him Chad Gaudin for Kevin Cash.

Designated Hitter (.263/.345/.439) – Josh Phelps (.272/.340/.486; against lefties: .309/.373/.535)

Josh Phelps is a lefty killer who shouldn’t get a lot of starts against right-handers. Phelps hit a .908 OPS against LHP over the past three years, only .785 vs RHP. Last year, he showed a particularly spectacular platoon split by hitting 375 OPS points higher against port-siders (.976) than against righties (.600). Although the Devil Rays beat themselves in a manner that suggests a masochistic self-loathing, they’re still likely to platoon Phelps as a part-time DH and pinch hitter, since Pinella isn’t stupid. Huff and Upton could conceivably also see time here upon occasion, along with a miscellaneous cast of others. Huff only hit .236/.298/.386 while a DH in 2004, but this was probably a sample size issue – his OPS as a DH over the past three years is .841, compared to .859 as a 1B and .962 as an outfielder.

Outfield

Left Field (.281/.347/.448) – Aubrey Huff (.307/.364/.524)

With Carl Crawford’s emergence, Aubrey Huff has competition for the title of best player developed by the Devil Rays, but Huff is still the Rays’ best pure hitter and one of the few that wouldn’t be fighting for a backup job on a good major league team. Huff’s performance has comfortably settled in the .300/.360/.500 range, a strong performance given the lack of protection in the lower half of the Devil Rays lineup. Huff’s 2004 performance was hampered by an awful first month, perhaps explained by the pressure generated by a desire to live up to his star billing and first big contract, but he recovered to nearly match his 2003 breakout year. At age 28, Huff is primed for another big season; ZIPS has him at .309/.372/.518 – a probable underestimate.

This performance has Huff attracting attention from other MLB teams, plus the Pirates. Trade rumors have generally emanated from teams that want him and those teams’ speculating fans. With his modest price and two more years on his contract, Huff probably won’t be traded until 2006 – a trade any earlier would alienate the team’s few fans, and it’s not like they have any to spare. LaMar may have had poor success at building a team, but he hasn’t generally pulled the trigger on trades too early. Usually, he overestimates his players’ ability to perform as a Devil Ray and then makes trades too late (see Kennedy, Joe). Why many players rot as Devil Rays and spring to life elsewhere is an unanswered question. Huff, however, is not one of those.

Huff is penciled in at left field, but the Rays’ have several fairly solid players in the outfield to go along with a number of mummified corpses on the infield. It’s possible that Huff could be back at 3B now and then until Upton is invited back.

Center Field (.280/.339/.430) – Rocco Baldelli (.285/.326/.425)/Carl Crawford (.283/.315/.400; in 2004 - .296/.331/.450)

Rocco Baldelli spent much of the 2004 dealing with quadriceps strains in both legs, which sapped his speed and turned him from one of the most exciting slap hitters in baseball to just a slap hitter. Even so, he ended the season as an almost-average hitting center fielder. Now he’s recovering from reconstructive knee surgery due to jamming his leg while playing with his younger brother in his back yard. People who horse around with their little brothers have good karma. Young ladies who are looking for a family man and who don’t mind thick necks could do worse than Rocco Baldelli, unless they want said family man to also fill an outfield position in their fantasy team – then they’d probably want someone with more power and better strike zone judgment. Baldelli will be out until July and ACL tears can do permanent damage to really fast guys, so this injury could be worrisome for the future of the Woonsocket Rocket – we won’t know until he gets back out there. In any case, ZIPS is probably overestimating Baldelli’s rate stats slightly, in addition to doubling his counting stats.

Crawford will be sliding over from right field to center while Baldelli recovers. Crawford’s emergence serves as a historical development and, between he and Huff, the team now has two legitimate All-Star contenders. Like Baldelli, Crawford has had a tendency to beat out infield hits, but Crawford is also developing gap power and led the league in triples with 19 in 2004. He has taken a shine to Tropicana Field – his home OPS (.872) was nearly 200 points higher than his road OPS (.695). Defensively, Crawford’s speed also serves him well, with scouts predicting several Gold Gloves in his future. Although more sophisticated metrics place Crawford only a little above average in the field, it’s not inconceivable that the less defensively praiseworthy Baldelli could find himself moving over to right (or to another team) at some point in the next couple of years.

Right Field (.275/.344/.436) – Crawford/Danny Bautista (.289/.337/.415)

A slightly below average, athletic fourth outfielder without much power and a bias against walks, Bautista is a natural-born Devil Ray. On the other hand, Bautista has played at least 100 games at every outfield position and isn’t such a horrible hitter that he’ll be a void in the lineup. He’ll serve as a stop-gap until Baldelli returns, and add versatility thereafter. Given this versatility, and the fairly small drop-off in talent between him and his teammates, Bautista should be in the lineup a fair amount.

Starting Pitching

Prime of their careers (heh) - Mark Hendrickson, Rob Bell, Casey Fossum

Mark Hendrickson showed signs of progress in his first season with the Devil Rays. The former New Jersey Net won 10 games and pitched the most innings on the team. Even so, he’s as trustworthy on the mound as Snidely Whiplash. Many of his failures stem from a continued inability to consistently put away right handed batters. For the season, righties put up a line that looked a lot like Craig Biggio’s (.808 OPS); lefties hit worse than Craig Counsell (.652 OPS). On Planet Southpaw, Hendrickson is an ace. On Earth, he’s a 30 year-old misplaced LOOGY who has a long career in front of him as a relief specialist as soon as he’s finished losing games for the Devil Rays.

Rob Bell’s ERA has dropped nearly a full run each of the last two seasons, which has nearly made him league average. Even so, Bell is underwhelming. For the Devil Rays, being no worse underwhelming makes you a key part of the rotation, and perhaps the Number Two starter.

Fossum was favored so highly by the Red Sox that he was withheld in a potential deal for Javier Vazquez. He was eventually traded to the Diamondbacks in the Curt Schilling deal and subsequently fell apart – quite literally, to some degree, since shoulder injury kept him on the DL as 2004 began. Fossum is now 27, entering his fifth major league season, and has yet to establish consistency. Last season was particularly bad, but regression to the mean is in order, which, in his case, is a good thing. It’s possible, however, that he does his work in the bullpen.

Youngsters – Dewon Brazelton, Scott Kazmir, Seth McClung, Doug Waechter

Dewon Brazelton finally put his game together in 2004 and made the leap into professional respectability before collapsing down the stretch. Although Carl Crawford may be the face of an improved Devil Rays team, Brazelton could be more integral than any player in getting Tampa Bay to its first winning season, if such a goal is attainable.

For nearly three months last season, Brazelton showed he could help carry his team. On Aug. 22, after pitching seven innings of one-run ball against the Oakland A’s, Brazelton boasted a nifty 3.31 ERA to go with a 6-4 record. Then the Krispy Kremes got him. His September record was 0-3, 7.79. Brazelton has vowed to improve his conditioning to be able to pitch strongly through the end of the year. Conditioning might make him competitive; making the slider a strikeout pitch could make him devastating. Until now, a low strikeout rate has put cap on Brazelton’s potential. Brazelton will turn 25 in June, so he’s running out of development time. This year will be crucial for his future.

Type “Scott Kazmir” into Google, and the following sponsored link shows up, thus solving the riddle of 2004’s most mysterious trade:

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That Kazmir would even be available, on eBay or otherwise, appeared something of a shock to Mets fans, who had been led to believe that Kazmir was the elusive left-handed flamethrower who makes batters wilt and Strat-O players’ hearts flutter. Indeed, Kazmir still ranks A- in John Sickel’s preview of Devil Rays prospects, an elusive ranking from Sickels that suggests stardom for the 21-year-old. In his 33 innings as a Devil Ray, Kazmir did little to dispel the hype – he struck out more than 11 batters per 9 innings and allowed a .754 OPS against right-handed hitters. On the other hand, lefties tagged him for a .956 OPS, and Kazmir’s walk rate was high. He could probably use some more time in AAA, but he won’t get it unless he blows the rotation spot that has been reserved for him. The Devil Rays rush their prospects, and this is no exception – we’ll see if Kazmir can handle the job. Minor league performance says he will sooner or later.

Seth McClung and Doug Waechter will probably drift into and out of the rotation at various points in the season, along with other random flotsam. McClung is more than 18 months out of Tommy John surgery and should be back to his high strikeout, high walk self that mirrors the Devil Ray pitching philosophy. His rehab in the minors last season went extremely well and included a 3.29 ERA in AAA. Waechter is a hometown player who has been overrated by hometown fans – his 6.01 ERA last season probably took a little shine off – and he was banished to the bullpen and AAA. Waechter generates mixed opinions. Depending on the source, he’s either front-of-the-rotation material or a lifetime minor leaguer. During his highly successful 2003 call-up, he was the former; all last year, he was the latter.

Fogies – Denny Neagle, Hideo Nomo

Denny Neagle’s bungled itch-scratching efforts cost him $19 million over the next two years, which, puts the target of Neagle’s affections into Anna Nicole Smith territory as far as draining the rich. The Devil Rays, however, have become Last Chance Gulch for baseball’s loser caste and, if Neagle gets Lugo-style lucky, there is yet a chance of redemption. Neagle is 37 and is coming off two years wiped out to injury, not to mention the lingering trauma of pitching in Coors Field, but minor league contracts have a purpose and Neagle is it. If life remains in his change up, the Devil Rays could have an much-needed piece to this year’s rotation. If not, no huhu. Good move by LaMar.

Hideo Nomo apparently never recovered from rotator cuff problems that required surgery before the 2004 season and was piteously awful for the Dodgers, another turn in what has become a career worthy of a DeMille filmography. Between DL stints, Nomo averaged 4 2/3 inning per start in posting the highest ERA ever for a pitcher with at least 15 decisions. The year before, however, Nomo won 16 games with a 130 ERA+. Although seemingly around as long as Mr. Miyagi, Nomo will be just 35 for most of the 2005 season and might be able to recover enough for a comeback. If so, it would be another rebound for one of baseball’s most historic figures. His track record says 2004 was a severe, injury-induced aberration. Bet on at least a partial recovery. On the other hand, his early spring numbers are really very bad (6 runs allowed, including 3 HRs, in 4 IP). We’ll see.

Bullpen

Danys Baez, Lance Carter, Trever Miller, Travis Harper, Jorge Sosa, Jesus Colome

Were every part of the team built like the bullpen, we’d be talking about the Devil Rays dominance over most of the American League. For the third year in a row, the bullpen has been the Devil Rays’ strength, and Pinella has ridden these horses long and well. Instead of straining under the load, however, the bullpen has gotten better over time. It’s now ranked as one of the top in baseball, with the bullpen’s 3.90 ranked third in the AL.

Getting a lead is a problem for the Rays, holding it is not. According to the St. Petersburg Times, the Rays’ record after taking a lead into the seventh was 54-6, 61-4 when leading into the eighth, and 63-1 when leading into the ninth. Singling out star players on this bullpen is difficult – simply put, each pitcher does his job.

One of the oddities of sabermetrics is that, although clutch hitting doesn’t exist, clutch pitching appears to. Derek Jeter, step aside – Rays closer Danys Baez is clutch. Although Baez sometimes offers unwelcome thrills with his a bend-but-don’t-break style, it worked for him last year – batters hit .198 with runners on against him. Unfortunately, Rays fans will probably soon see the last of Baez, since he’s both running out of contract and has Jesus Colome in the wings as ace closer. Colome throws laser beams (including his patented change-up laser beam, complete with blue shift) and held opposing batters to a .595 OPS against.

Lance Carter still didn’t deserve his 2003 All-Star berth (Aubrey Huff should have gotten it), but the finesse righty had another excellent season while setting up Baez. Ironically, Carter’s 3.47 ERA was nearly a run better than his All-Star season, but his peripherals were nearly the same and he has established himself as a sneakily effective and underrated reliever. Despite his success, Carter keeps moving down the rungs of the bullpen ladder as other Devil Ray pitchers – first Baez and now Colome – move above him when dealing with high leverage situations, but Carter is probably as valuable in the seventh inning as the ninth, and he has succeeded in both. Travis Harper is Carter’s equal. Harper gets groundouts with a sinking fastball and built on an excellent 2003 with a 3.89 ERA in 2004. Both Harper and Carter will pitch in middle innings and beyond. Bill James should have had a bullpen committee this interchangeable – if only to shut Joe Morgan and Tim McCarver up for good.

The bullpen is rounded out by Trever Miller, the lefty specialist, Jorge Sosa, a fireballer who sometimes harnesses his control to exceptional effect (but when he is bad, he is horrid), and perhaps a young starter like McClung. In any case, the bullpen will likely continue to be a significant strength for the Rays, its expertise again overshadowed by the ineptitude that comes before it – a chocolate mousse torte chasing a 7-Eleven hotdog.

Conclusion

The Devil Rays have done some good things in recent years. Unfortunately, few of them were this year. Although the team might not significantly regress – there are too many young players to have tremendous deterioration – the progress that added 15 wins in the past two seasons may slow. Such a slow-down could start the toppling of dominoes, including the departure of a disgusted Lou Pinella and, with tremendous luck, the end of Chuck LaMar’s disastrous tenure as GM. On the other hand, some gains could be maintained, and, if every random variable were to tumble in the exact alignment needed, the Rays may contend for a winning record this season. To do so, the pitching fogies will have to revert to previous success and young players like B. J. Upton will have to forget their bad habits in a hurry. With the AL East seemingly becoming a Hall of Fame way station, such success will not likely happen for Tampa Bay this year.

2005 ZiPS Projections

...will be posted later today.  Dan is in St. Louis and the data isn't properly formatted on laptop!  
ZiPS stats can be seen until then at http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/szymborski