Washington Nationals Preview

Last year at this time, the Montreal Expos were a team without a country – subject to the whims of 29 other groups with which they were supposed to compete . . . so naturally, when writing their season preview I wrote the following three paragraphs:

If Nick Johnson and Brad Wilkerson stay healthy, if Carl Everett stays healthy and happy, if Jose Vidro and Orlando Cabrera just stay, if Tony Batista, Juan Rivera, Brian Schneider and the rest of the offense stay in spitting distance of league average it’s possible the offense could improve on last year’s run total of 711 runs.

The pitching outlook isn’t nearly as rosy, and a regression from their 716 runs allowed seems likely.

If I had to guess, the Expos finish near .500 again, which is no small feat, and could be something to build on. Somewhere.

So, how did I do?

Well, for starters Nick Johnson did not stay healthy, Carl Everett was shipped to the Southside of Chicago midseason, Jose Vidro got banged up, Orlando Cabrera never has to worry about buying a beer in Southie again and the rest of the offense… blech, it cut its run output by about 10% to 635 for the season.

The pitching regressed, allowing 769 runs in 2004, or just about 7%. So what do you get when you score fewer and allow more, well in the case of the Expos you get a 67-95 record – a 16 game decline from 2003.

But enough with the bad news, after years of letting the cities of Montreal; Washington; Dulles, Va., Portland, Ore.; San Juan, P.R.; Monterrey, Mexico; Saratoga Springs, N.Y; and Cheyenne, Wyo. twist in the wind, the Lords of Baseball placed the Expos in Washington, D.C., then they didn’t, but the city government blinked, swallowed hard and took what MLB had to offer – namely, offering them a risk-free stadium to place their 67-95 last place ward.

So what’s happened since? Well, MLB took the safe, boring, non-controversial, non-historical route and named the new Washington franchise the Nationals. Though the merchandise has been flying off the shelves by all reports, the name was widely panned – with the sentimental choice being the Senators and the mayor’s choice (and my personal favorite) being the Grays. However, the Nats it is and shall be for now.

The team is still rudderless however, still a ward of the state, so all the revenue from those new script “W” hats and jerseys is probably flowing straight to the commissioner’s office and eventually to the Brewers, but that’s another story.

And the fact that that money is heading away from the Nats front offices is probably for the best in the short term. Why? Well, because it's as if the 29 other owners decided to get one last shot in before Washington becomes a big market powerhouse in the National League – they turned the keys over to Jim Bowden.

I am now convinced that there is no scarier sight in baseball than Jim Bowden at the helm of your franchise with nothing but house money in front of him.

Hired in November, seemingly straight off the set of ESPN’s Cold Pizza, Bowden started with actually a glimmer of promise, by cutting show-up-in-the-ninth pitcher, and the last reminder this team had of Bartolo Colon, Rocky Biddle. Then, he got all crazy.

Bowden brought in one of the anchors of the AL Central Champion Twins, shortstop Christian Guzman, and when I say anchor, I mean that he was much like a several ton lead weight holding the team back. This only cost the team $16.8 million over the next four years, but that’s just in terms of real dollars, but more on that later.

The Guzman signing portended the signing of Vinny Cash-stealer, RBI King™ to an insane 2-year $6.2 million contract. Naturally both of these signings were hailed as a great start to the Bowden administration when they should have been cause for impeachment.

Just two days after Bowden gutted the left side of his infield, he continued the festival of insanity by bringing in a certified crazy person – outfielder Jose Guillen. As a player, I like Guillen, I happen to believe he made real strides in 2003 when he smacked 31 homers and threw up a line of .311/.359/.569 for the Reds and A’s, and I think he was consolidating them in 2004 where he hit .294/.352/.497 for the Angels before he went mental, fought his manager and got suspended for the season for basically being a knucklehead. That last part is the problem, though maybe Frank Robinson is to surly outfielders what Leo Mazzone is to mediocre pitchers and this will work out.

The real problem with the Guillen trade is what “Bodes” gave up to get him – namely former uber-prospect Juan Rivera and 24-year-old shortstop Macier Izturis.

Rivera basically is Guillen. Or, at least he was last year, when he hit .307/.364/.465 for the ‘Spos. Rivera is also three years younger and a few million a year cheaper than Jose. The other problem is Izturis – who basically is better than Guzman right now.

In AAA Edmonton last season, Izturis raked for a line of .338/.428/.423. The last time Guzman hit .338 at any level? Never. The last time Guzman slugged as high as .423 at any level? His injury shortened 2001 when he posted a .477 slugging percentage fueled by a league-leading 14 triples. The last time Guzman posted an OBA as high as Macier’s .428? NEVER. In fact, the closest he’s ever gotten is .341 with the Yankees Gulf Coast League affiliate!

What does Guzman bring to the table exactly? Lots of triples? Yes, but not as many as he used to hit – as evidenced by the paltry total of four he hit last year. Great defense? His fielding percentage was high in 2004 - .983, good for second in the circuit, but his zone rating and range factor were decidedly average or below average for the year.

So what was the result of all Bowden’s fury, well a whole lot of nothing, er, a couple of more expensive players who essentially downgrade the team tremendously.

Adding to the chaos around the Beltway, the Nats still have no television deal as a week before opening day, so they’ve got that going for them.

On the upshot, anecdotal evidence (READ: my own roaming through the city and suburbs) Nationals merchandise seems to be doing very well among the populous, local press have reported opening night tickets going for 300% of face value and the team has sold more than 20,000 season tickets.

That last number is significant because its more than twice the average the Nationals drew last season as the Expos … that number is significant because over the last three seasons the franchise drew more than 20,000 fans a total of 16 times – and six of those were the Montreal home opener and final home games of the season.

So what are all these newfound fans going to see – well not to get all Tony Reali on you, but let’s go around the horn…

1B – Nick Johnson (2004 – 73 Games .251/.359/.398)

Some say health is a skill, and if that’s the case, then you can take that out of Johnson’s toolbox, along with speed. For all the bluster that Yankee fans (myself included) made about Johnson, its safe to say that Johnson is dancing on the line of being a bust.

In his career, Johnson has averaged roughly 250 at bats per season, to the career line of .255/.372./.418 – and most of that owing to his 2003 where he went crazy with a .284/.422/.472 line in 324 ABs.

With a brittle wrist, a balky back and a collection of other maladies, Johnson is threatening to treat the stathead community like most of us were presumably treated by girls in high school – tease us with nice behavior so we say or do nice things for him and then break our hearts by never returning our affections consistently.

2B – Jose Vidro (2004 – 110 Games .294/.367/.454)

Vidro is the face of this franchise, but he’s not the all star he once was. His average has fallen by 10 or more points each of the last four seasons and his OBA fell 30 points last season as he battled knee injuries. His slugging has slid as well, and he’s never been one to burn the basepaths.

That said, while Vidro is no longer the best player on the team, he’s still in the top tier of NL keystone sackers. His .294 average was good for 8th in the league, as was his OBA and slugging percentage came in at 10th in the circuit.

However, at 30, Vidro is probably facing his decline, which is a shame – more people deserve to see what kind of player he was. Perhaps moving from the concrete of Olympic Stadium to the grass of RFK will help, but time will tell.

As it stands, Vidro is the Heart and Soul™ of this team, signing a long-term deal when the team was at its nadir in early 2004 and deserves the new start the team is getting as much as anyone.

SS – Cristian Guzman (2004 – 145 Games .274/.309/.384)

At least he’s durable… but otherwise, Guzman is a black hole and a pox on the Nationals new house (as described above in detail).

3B – Vinny Castilla (2004 – 148 Games .271/.332/.535)

On the surface, Vinny looks like a solid pickup, but not playing 81 games on the moon is going to make him look like the fading 37 year old that he is.

In Colorado, Castilla hit .321/.379/.575, but everywhere else he hit .218/.281/.493. For those of you keeping score at home – the Nats only play three games on Planet Coors.

LF – Brad Wilkerson (2004 – 160 Games .255/.374/.498)

Bar none the Nats best player. Brad played all over the field for the franchise of the last few seasons – left, right, center, first base – hell, I think he even booked the team’s flights and hotels.

Wilkerson does three things very well – walk, hit for power and strikeout. As a 27 year old, as at times the Nats primary offensive weapon last year, he hit 32 bombs and 39 doubles. He drew more than 100 walks but fanned 152 times.

All players have warts and one of the lessons of sabermetrics is to look beyond them toward what a player does well. Wilkerson is durable, has pop, plays several positions passably and with recent roster developments and Johnson’s affinity for season ending injuries could end up in center or at first base. He’s the best position player in Washington, and should be the cornerstone of the team as they build toward respectability.

CF – Ryan Church (2004 – 98 Games .343/.428/.620 at Triple-A Edmonton – 30 ML Games .175/.257/.238)

If I had made Dan S. happy and turned this in on time, Endy Chavez would be in the space… instead, the powers that be in the Washington front office decided that having a leadoff hitter with a .300-ish OBP was a bad idea.

Church is 26 and had an impressive season at Triple-A, then crashed and burned upon being called up the bigs. Drafted by Cleveland in the 14th round of the 2000 draft out of Nevada, Church was the schwag picked up by Montreal a heist of a trade with the Indians (Scott Stewart for Macier Izturis and Church). In five minor league seasons, Church has never had an OBP lower than .325 and a slugging percentage below .429.

Church had an outstanding year at Triple-A at age 25, an age that’s a bit old for the level, but I think it’s a bold move by the Nats. Chavez has proven he’s incapable of getting on base at an acceptable rate, and anecdotally he has Willie Mays Hayes Syndrome, i.e. swinging away and not playing to his strength of blinding speed. Chavez stole 32 bases last year, Church has swiped about half that number in his career.

If Church can’t hold the job, Chavez or Wilkerson may be called upon, but the organization is pretty thin in centerfield.

RF – Jose Guillen (2004 – 148 Games .294/.352/.497)

After breaking out in 2003, Guillen cracked up in 2004. Guillen’s meltdown may or may not have contributed to Anaheim’s playoff loss last season, but it didn’t help.

After years as a poster child against premature callups of toolsy outfielders, Guillen made real strides in the past two seasons, besting his career average OBP by 30 points in each season while posting slugging percentages of .569 and .497.

Acquired for Juan Rivera in one of Bowden’s trades for the purposes of trading someone, Guillen’s a fine player – just the cost is too high. He should provide some interesting moments for Nats fans – hopefully in the form of eye-popping throws from the outfield and moonshot homers and not in the form of, well, fits of insanity.

Bench

C – Gary Bennett (2004 – 75 Games .224/.297/.329)
INF – Tony Blanco (2004 – 58 Games .245/.300/.455 in Double-A – 62 Games .306/.403/.588 in Single-A)
INF – Jamey Carroll (2004 – 102 Games .289/.378/.372)
OF – J.J. Davis (2004 – 25 Games .143/.225/.171)
OF – Terrmel Sledge (2004 – 133 Games .269/.336/.462)

If Congress wants to investigate something, it should be this bench. Bennett has his backup catcher card, which isn’t saying much because so does John Flaherty.

Blanco is a 23-year-old Rule V draftee from Cincinnati who has the potential to grow into something useful.

Carroll at all three non-first base positions in the infield as well as some outfield while providing a popless bat off the bench.

Davis was acquired for Antonio Sucre, Bowden apparently needing to fulfill his toolsy outfielder habit.

Sledge is most famous for, in no particular order: A) testing positive for steroids B) providing decent pop in a part-time role last season C) Getting made fun of by Tony Kornheiser and D) modeling the Nats new uniforms.

Of this group, Sledge is the best player, but with Guillen and Wilkerson manning the corners, he’s in the toughest spot to win playing time. But with most things, the answer is just an injury away.

Rotation

RHP – Livan Hernandez (2004 – 255 IP 3.60 ERA 186/83 K/BB)

Livan defies science. He’s thrown 200 innings in every season since 1997 (OK, he actually threw 199.2 in 1999, but I’m rounding here). The most underappreciated starter in the National League in the last two seasons, when he’s posted ERAs of 3.20 and 3.60 respectively, while increasing his strikeouts and throwing 17 complete games. So long as he stays healthy, he should continue to be a great starter for the Nats. Just 30 years old, Hernandez is signed through 2007.

RHP – Tomo Ohka (2004 – 84.2 IP 3.40 ERA 38/20 K/BB)

Ohka had good seasons in 2002 and 2003 and was on his way before getting hit on the arm with a line drive in June and breaking his pitching arm.

As second starters go, for the price ($2.75 for one-year), the Nats could do worse than Ohka.

RHP – Esteban Loaiza (2004 – 183 IP 5.70 ERA 117/71 K/BB)

Will the real Esteban Loaiza please stand up? Loaiza was a replacement level pitcher until 2003, when he went nuts, started the All-Star Game, finished second in Cy Young voting and posted a 21-9 record with an ERA+ of 154 and striking out 207 while walking just 56.

The sudden spike in performance was chalked up learning a cutter, but in 2004, all the gains departed and reverted to league average (or worse as a Yankee – see an ERA+ of 53).

If Loaiza can approach his 2003, or at least improve on his 2004, he can be an asset during the length of his one-year $2.9 million contract.

Best case scenario, Loaiza goes nuts again and gets traded at the deadline for parts of the first good Washington Nationals team.

RHP – Zach Day (2004 – 116.2 IP 3.93 ERA 61/45 K/BB)

The booty for trading Milton Bradley to the Indians, Day is young (27) and has been decent but brittle in his career – never pitching more than 131.1 innings in any of his three seasons. He doesn’t strike out very many batters and gives up about a hit per inning, which is not a recipe for long term success.

Again, as a fourth starter Day could be successful if his defense does well by him and he stays healthy.

RHP – Tony Armas Jr. (2004 – 72 IP 4.88 ERA 54/45 K/BB)

I could start by saying Armas has potential if can stay healthy, but since he’s already on the 15-day DL, I won’t. One of the few players traded from the Yankees to the Red Sox, Armas is most famous for being he son of a big leaguer and being traded along with Carl Pavano from Boston for Pedro Martinez.

When healthy, Armas can be a decent starter, but like Day he’s 27 and outside of 2002, he doesn’t strike a lot of guys out.

The fifth slot will be held down by John Patterson. Patterson is another 27-year-old righty who can’t seem to stay healthy, but unlike Day and Armas, he does whiff some people, more than a punchout per inning last season before being felled by a groin injury. With an, at times electric breaking ball, Patterson could make some real strides in 2005.

Bullpen

CL – Chad Cordero (2004 – 82.2 IP 2.94 ERA 83/43 K/BB)

Cordero went from pitching in the College World Series in 2003 to the majors in 2003 and acquitted himself very well thank you. He continued that success in 2004.

A tender 22 years old, Cordero struck out a batter an inning, but walked about one over every eight batters he faced. Installed as the closer, Cordero has outperformed his fellow fast tracked “signability” pick, the Reds’ Ryan Wagner, and there’s no reason to think he’s going step back.

RHSU – Luis Ayala (2004 – 90.1 IP 2.69 ERA 63/15 K/BB)

Ayala followed up his spectacular 2003 with an equally good 2004. A Rule V draftee, Ayala is the poster child for taking promising power arms for your bullpen in the Rule V draft.

In two seasons he’s been durable (161.1 total innings) and good (a 2.79 ERA and a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio). The bullpen is probably Washington’s strength and Ayala is a big reason why.

LHSU – Joey Eischen (2004 – 18.1 IP 3.93 ERA 17/8 K/BB)

Eischen’s 2004 was derailed by bone spurs, but in the previous two seasons, the angry lefty was excellent. In 2003, he fanned 40 in 53 innings and allowed just 18 earned runs and in 2002, Joey was even better. Two years ago, Eischen struck out 51 batters in 53.2 innings and pitched to a 1.34 ERA.

The Rest

RHP T.J. Tucker (2004 – 67.2 IP 3.72 ERA 44/17 K/BB)
RHP Antonio Osuna (2004 – 36.2 IP 2.45 ERA 36/11 K/BB)
LHP Joe Horgan (2004 – 40.0 IP 3.18 ERA 30/22 K/BB)

Manager Frank Robinson is bringing just 11 pitchers north this season, which is rare this season.

With this bullpen, the Nats should hold most of the leads their starters turn over to them. Tucker and Horgan had success last year, and though injuries kept Osuna to just 31 games last season, in the past, he’s been better than league average reliever and there’s no reason to believe that he shouldn’t continue that track record.

The Year Ahead

So what chance does this team have? To win the NL East – well, slim and none and slim looked to be packing his bags to leave town. But, another run at .500 isn’t out of the question, but it’s not probable. The deck is still stacked against the team until a new owner sets up shop. A new owner, and a new stadium in 2008 should keep the bloom on the rose for D.C. baseball through the end of the decade, however winning is ultimately the bottom line in drawing fans.

So, what should the Nationals be looking to do? Well, prepare for 2008 – if Loaiza jumps out to a good start, he and perhaps one or two of the non-Cordero bullpen arms should be shipped to whatever contender is willing to part with the best parts of the first good Washington Nationals team.

The important thing for this squad is that they have some certainty in their future, which is something they haven’t had in a while. Bottom line, somewhere between 75 and 83 wins would be a good season for Washington and is certainly an attainable goal.

2005 ZiPS Projections

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Osuna                5   2   3.11  47   0    55.0   47   19   2   21   54 
Eischen*             3   2   3.12  61   0    52.0   45   18   3   16   46 
Ayala               10   6   3.18  73   0    82.0   80   29   6   14   58 
Loaiza              12  10   3.79  31  29   202.0  198   85  16   60  149 
Tucker               4   3   3.81  52   4    78.0   77   33   6   24   50 
Hernandez           14  12   3.85  34  34   234.0  226  100  22   72  177 
Ohka                10   9   3.89  29  29   169.0  174   73  17   39  102 
Majewski             5   4   3.96  56   1    75.0   65   33   5   37   69 
Cordero              4   4   3.99  60   0    70.0   60   31   6   35   72 
Hill                 8   9   4.08  23  23   119.0  122   54   8   40   62 
Corcoran             4   5   4.09  42   0    55.0   48   25   2   33   46 
Rueckel              4   5   4.21  46   0    77.0   76   36   7   29   55 
Patterson            7   8   4.21  27  23   139.0  129   65  16   58  125 
Rauch                7   8   4.39  26  23   123.0  119   60  17   45  105 
Rundles*             4   6   4.46  20  20   103.0  106   51   9   42   59 
Hinckley*            7   9   4.56  26  26   144.0  144   73  18   57  109 
Armas                6   8   4.58  22  22   116.0  111   59  13   57   97 
Day                  7   9   4.61  25  20   119.0  124   61  11   51   66 
Beltran              2   3   4.75  48   1    53.0   50   28   6   30   48 
Rasner               5   8   4.92  25  25   128.0  134   70  17   53   81 
Horgan*              3   5   5.03  63   0    68.0   67   38  10   33   55 
Powell               6   7   5.03  28  19   127.0  138   71  18   48   70 
Greisinger           6   7   5.05  30  25   155.0  182   87  27   35   85 
Kim                  4   8   5.10  35  20   136.0  142   77  19   61   89 
Karp                 5   8   5.27  23  23   123.0  127   72  18   63   89 
Vargas               3   5   5.30  36  17   112.0  117   66  18   53   82 
Yarnall*             4   5   5.37  24  22   104.0  106   62  15   58   80 
Durbin               5  10   5.42  27  15    93.0   95   56  15   46   75 
Smith                3   6   5.51  35  12    98.0  103   60  19   38   70 
Ferrari*             2   6   5.91  44   0    70.0   78   46  10   40   34 
Echols               4  11   6.28  31  18   119.0  123   83  23   81   99 

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Wilkerson*         lf  .263  .380  .457 158 558  93 147 33  3 23  77 104 155 11  8 
Guillen            lf  .297  .352  .499 139 515  77 153 28  2 24  89  32  87  3  4 
Vidro#             2b  .303  .381  .445 133 501  66 152 30  1 13  68  62  52  3  2 
Sledge*            lf  .288  .363  .454 131 458  66 132 22  6 14  63  53  82  5  5 
Chavez*            cf  .283  .330  .376 147 558  75 158 22  6  6  49  39  53 27 12 
Church*            lf  .278  .347  .451 123 421  62 117 23  4 14  59  43  87  2  1 
Guzman#            ss  .269  .305  .373 148 595  78 160 27  7  7  54  31  70 12  9 
Castilla           3b  .237  .292  .402 144 545  59 129 32  2 18  72  39  90  1  1 
Harris             3b  .267  .329  .416 127 442  63 118 27  3 11  54  38  76  3  2 
Watson*            cf  .289  .329  .337 142 540  77 156 14  3  2  42  29  70 20 12 
Davis              lf  .265  .325  .500 112 374  54  99 21  2 21  61  32  93  9  6 
Johnson*           1b  .268  .388  .431  98 325  51  87 17  0 12  47  59  70  4  3 
Broadway*          1b  .240  .320  .388 134 459  62 110 18  1 16  57  51 109  3  2 
Escobar            cf  .255  .311  .443 116 427  53 109 19  2 19  57  32 129  4  3 
Cepicky*           lf  .257  .305  .400 125 432  54 111 22  2 12  58  27  97  3  1 
Sandberg           3b  .215  .286  .410 130 441  58  95 27  1 19  62  41 155  2  1 
Arias              1b  .233  .301  .387 121 424  46  99 24  1 13  53  39 130  1  1 
Schneider*         c   .245  .317  .372 123 392  32  96 19  2  9  44  41  76  0  2 
Labandiera         ss  .233  .288  .312 137 503  56 117 21  2  5  38  36  91  8  7 
Cordero            1b  .255  .333  .395 103 329  35  84 16  0 10  46  37  67  1  1 
Short              3b  .271  .312  .377 105 377  42 102 22  0  6  43  20  49  2  1 
Carroll            3b  .271  .341  .360 111 325  43  88 16  2  3  29  33  37  4  5 
Kuzmic#            3b  .222  .317  .345  97 325  39  72 13  3  7  33  44 103  3  2 
Guerrero           cf  .232  .275  .348 112 405  48  94 14  3  9  42  21  94 11  8 
Belcher*           lf  .252  .294  .348 110 353  34  89 19  0  5  36  18  53  6  2 
Bowers             ss  .235  .281  .332 115 391  42  92 17  3  5  33  22  67  5  5 
Hammonds           rf  .236  .321  .360  85 275  24  65 15  2  5  23  33  55  2  3 
Bennett            c   .226  .290  .305  86 266  21  60 12  0  3  25  22  40  1  1 
Osik               c   .232  .321  .318  72 198  16  46 11  0  2  18  24  37  0  1 
Mateo#             2b  .257  .303  .336  87 214  28  55  8  3  1  14  13  41 10  6 
Dorta              2b  .218  .274  .249  87 293  26  64  7  1  0  18  20  42 10  4 
Baerga#            2b  .281  .333  .381  87 160  18  45  7  0  3  19  11  17  1  1