Kansas City Royals

"I Believe!" was Tony Pena motto for the club, and quickly all of Kansas City was believed. The team went 83- 79, their first winning record since 1993. When most of the other teams in the division got off to slow starts, the Royals started 9-0 and vaulted into first place and stayed there until August. Excitement returned to the ballpark for the first time since the 1994- strike. On July 13 with their record at 52-41, the Royals had pulled out to a 7-1/2 game lead in the Central at the All-Star break.

After that high point, injuries began to mount and only one of the five pitchers in the rotation at the beginning of the season was still there at the end. Darrell May was the only starter who made it through the season from start to finish, and he ended up being the Royals only pitcher with 10 wins, going 10-8 with a 3.77 ERA. Mike MacDougal won the closer's role out of spring training, and was 10-of-10 in save opportunities to start the season. His hot start led to him making the All-Star team, though he didn’t pitch in the game. He ended the season with 27 saves. The offense took a major stride forward, finishing fourth in the league in runs scored with 836. Carlos Beltran led the team in batting average, homers, runs scored, RBI, steals, and triples. The biggest surprise offensively was AL Rookie of the Year Angel Berroa. Berroa hit 17 homers, and batted .287, and while he struggled in the field for the first two months of the season, he was nearly flawless in the second half. Mike Sweeney had a solid year, hitting .293 with 83 RBI, but played in only 108 games due to a nagging back injury.

The combination of a strong off season by the Royals and iffy off-seasons by the Chi-Sox and Twins, put the Royals are in the completely unfamiliar position of being picked by many as a favorite in the division.

After several seasons of bringing in the wrong player, and paying them too much, general manager Allard Baird seemingly hasn’t made a misstep in the last year and a half. This off-season, he managed to re-sign Brian Anderson, Curtis Leskanic, Kevin Appier and Joe Randa while bringing in Benito Santiago, Tony Graffanino, Matt Stairs, Scott Sullivan, and Juan Gonzalez.

The Royals accepted the wrath of the public when popular left fielder Raul Ibanez departed, signing a three-year deal with Seattle, which will pay the 32-year old at an annual average of 4.4 million per season. Well, maybe the wrath of the public is overstating it, maybe it was more like a stern inter-office email which also mentioned keeping the office refrigerator clean. The Royals then played Raul Mondesi and Juan Gonzalez off each other before inking the 34-year-old Gonzalez to a $4.5 million deal, with an option year. In the last three seasons Gonzalez has played slightly less than 300 games, but in those three seasons he has hit 67 homers, only two less than Ibanez’s career total.

Baird also decided to let Paul Abbott, Michael Tucker, Brent Mayne, Al Levine, Rondell White, and Jose Lima leave, most of them left without much of an offer. Compare the list of those arriving to the list of those leaving, which group would you rather have?

As with any team without the unlimited resources of the Yankees, health and depth are big concerns. The Royals seem to have quality backups in place in the event of injury, primarily by having several versatile players on the roster. Graffanino can fill in at second and third, while Matt Stairs can fill in at first base, left field and DH. David DeJesus will probably start the year in Omaha, but could fill in competently in center or left if Aaron Guiel turns back into a pumpkin.

Desi Relaford was a key to the Royals' early success last season. At the All-star break, he was hitting .288 with a .776 OPS and had scored 50 runs. Relaford is a switch hitter, but mid-way through the season, he was essentially forced to give up batting right-handed due to a bad left wrist. After the break while battling the wrist and other injuries, he hit just .207 with a .572 OPS.

Relaford is a small man, and like Bip Roberts and Tony Phillips before him, he may actually be better served playing 120-130 games at multiple positions. With Graffanino on the roster, it is possible that he could fall into that role, or some type of complex platoon with Randa and Graffanino. One of Tony Pena’s core beliefs is playing everyone on the roster, so don’t expect Graffanino to rot on the bench.

The other two key injury risks are Sweeney and Gonzalez. Sweeney was out from June 21 to August 8 with a sore back, and Gonzalez tore his right calf muscle on July 20 and was done for the season. Both players missed big chunks of time in 2002 also, and even very optimistic Royals fans are saying things like, "If Gonzalez can only stay healthy for 120 games!"

Fantasy players take note: The pitching staff should show major improvement, at least superficially. The walls have been pushed back to the same dimensions it had from its opening until 1995. The home run park factor from 1995-2003 for the Royals was 107, while for the nine seasons before that it was a park factor of 69. The Royals ERA was .37 points higher at home than on the road during the short fence period, while it was .30 points lower at home during old astro-turf days. The team was 12th in ERA last season, but if the park reverts to its pre-1995 form, they could have their first ERA below 4.70 since 1996.

Darrell May might be the chief beneficiary of the new dimensions, but Brian Anderson and Jimmy Gobble are both fly ball pitchers too. Jeremy Affeldt is more of a ground ball pitcher, but he did allow twice as many homers in Kansas City as he did on the road last season.

May, Anderson, Affeldt and Gobble figure to be the starting rotation until the Royals add a fifth starter in mid-April, and all four are left handed. When is the last time a team has gone with four lefties in the rotation? It was way back in 2003 when the A's did it. While there is no true ace in this group, the top three stack up well with the Twins or White Sox have.

I consulted the Magic 8 ball about the identity of the 5th starter and it replied "Better not tell you now." The field includes Miguel Ascencio, but he has not been on the mound since May 15 last season and the early reports are less than encouraging. He seems likely to begin the year in the minors either with a demotion or rehab assignment. Kyle Snyder was removed from the competition after having another surgery on his labrum this spring. Kevin Appier is scheduled to be ready by May after elbow surgery, so currently it looks like a toss-up between the player touted by John Sickels as the number one pitching prospect in the minors, Zach Greinke, and Joe Dawley, a refugee from Atlanta. Dawley will likely be a swing-man, and an frequent shuttler from Omaha to Kansas City.

The key to the staff is Affeldt, who has been tormented by blisters since coming to the majors. He had a procedure this off-season to remove half of the fingernail from his middle finger, which hopefully will alleviate the blisters. If not the Royals will move him to the pen, where he could be a Billy Wagner clone.

The pen has five quality right-handers, but unless Affeldt comes back to the pen, no proven lefty. That was a sore spot as four different players were tried at the LOOGY spot last year, and all four had ERAs over 10.00. Jamie Cerda, who has some eye-popping minor league numbers, is the front-runner, but Mike Venafro and Greg Swindell are both in camp to provide options.

MacDougal is the closer, but if he struggles, Leskanic who was very effective in KC will step in. Jason Grimsley was resigned, who was effective until the All-Star break with 4.14 ERA, but he had made 50 appearances by then and his ERA in the second half 7.20. Scott Sullivan was brought in to eat innings, and seemed to bounce back a little last season and has gone two straight seasons without exceeding 100 innings pitched in relief. DJ Carrasco will have to get back to showing multiple arm angles to keep lefties from driving him back to the minors. He admitted to pitching with elbow tendonitis in the second half of 2003, so if his workload is better regulated he could be a solid middleman and emergency starter.

The Royals have assembled a good group of second tier pitchers in case a rash of injuries hits again this season. Dawley, Denny Reyes, Erik Hiljus, or Chris George could be solid for a short stint.

One of our local broadcasters says that he has never seen a major league manager give up on a game, before it starts, like Tony Pena does. It could be true, whether you could identify these opportunities in time to get a bet down, is iffy. Take July 5, for example, Brad Voyles gets the start, Mike DiFelice is catching, Jarrod Patterson is the DH, and Julius Matos at third base. It’s hard to pinpoint other contests that could fit that pattern, (though any start by DJ Carrasco or Voyles is suspect) but hey, if you’re looking for a small edge, there it is.

Mike Sweeney and the batting title. Could the fences moving out help Sweeney win a batting title? Batting title futures are a terrible investment, but if you are going to try a long shot, note that Sweeney has had a higher batting season on the road every season since 2000 except 2003, and he hit only six more home runs at home over the last four years. So maybe he loses 1.5 homers next season, but with the outfielders playing deeper, maybe he adds 10 points to his home batting average on dunkers and flares. With no Tony Gwynn or Wade Boggs in the league, those 10 batting points may be enough to edge him to the top. If the odds were long enough, it might be an interesting play. 2004 ZiPS Projections

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC    G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS 
Beltran#           cf  .306  .390  .535  154  602  109  184  30   9  30  102   77  104  35   5 
Sweeney            1b  .313  .403  .518  125  467   75  146  31   1  21   82   67   54   6   4 
Stairs*            rf  .276  .382  .543  120  304   47   84  24   0  19   61   46   61   1   1 
Gonzalez           rf  .298  .344  .564   96  369   57  110  30   1  22   74   22   74   1   1 
Berger             rf  .275  .343  .507  104  367   62  101  21   2  20   65   35   78   6   3 
Pickering*         1b  .277  .372  .439   90  346   42   96  17   0  13   52   49  119   0   0 
Guiel*             rf  .274  .364  .452  139  507   88  139  34   1  18   76   53  102   4   6 
DeJesus*           rf  .288  .377  .427   99  351   68  101  20   4   7   41   47   45   8   6 
Harvey             1b  .291  .340  .449  131  501   65  146  29   1  16   73   33   94   3   3 
Berroa             ss  .286  .342  .441  145  542   89  155  27   6  15   70   28  104  17   6 
Graffanino         ss  .251  .357  .405  127  370   72   93  24   6   7   39   57   84   6   0 
Patterson*         3b  .270  .341  .437  124  460   74  124  34   2  13   63   46   88   2   1 
Gettis             rf  .286  .358  .422  137  493   79  141  27   2  12   63   47  108   8   8 
Randa              3b  .269  .329  .427  140  524   64  141  40   2  13   69   42   66   1   1 
Chapman            3b  .268  .334  .417  131  482   59  129  36   0  12   64   44   95   1   2 
Relaford#          2b  .271  .335  .400  132  435   65  118  26   3   8   49   38   64  15   4 
Brown*             rf  .271  .332  .414  108  406   52  110  20   1  12   54   33  100   4   3 
Gomez*             lf  .289  .340  .406  125  488   67  141  20   5   9   54   34   99  10  12 
Brown#             cf  .282  .352  .357  130  457   72  129  18   2   4   44   45   74  21  12 
Lopez              ss  .254  .316  .404   95  334   55   85  21   1   9   43   27   86   4   2 
Santiago           c   .267  .312  .398  118  427   50  114  23   3   9   50   24   73   2   2 
Thompson*          cf  .291  .348  .332  129  488   94  142  11   3   1   40   38   71  27  11 
Walter             c   .265  .302  .384   43  151   19   40  10   1   2   16    6   33   1   1 
Stinnett           c   .228  .303  .383   60  167   14   38  14   0   4   21   15   49   1   1 
Dawkins            ss  .250  .316  .338  109  376   49   94  16   1   5   37   33   79   6   6 
Tonis              c   .245  .304  .339   92  330   42   81  16   0   5   34   25   64   2   1 

Name                  ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Affeldt*             3.63   8   4  33  19   124.0  112   50   9   39  108 
Cerda*               3.88   2   3  50   0    72.0   65   31   5   28   61 
MacDougal            3.95   5   3  68   0    66.0   57   29   4   30   61 
Carrasco             3.96   5   4  51   1    75.0   69   33   4   33   60 
Venafro*             4.06   4   3  57   0    51.0   51   23   3   18   25 
Hernandez            4.09  10   7  24  23   143.0  143   65  11   45   94 
Serrano              4.38   7   5  49   0    74.0   73   36   6   29   51 
Grimsley             4.38   4   4  73   0    76.0   72   37   6   34   59 
Bukvich              4.42   2   2  53   0    59.0   48   29   3   40   61 
Leskanic             4.58   3   3  61   0    59.0   56   30   6   27   49 
Dawley               4.63   5   4  32  16   107.0  111   55  15   36   82 
Snyder               4.63   4   4  21  21   101.0  111   52  13   25   53 
Gobble*              4.71  11  10  27  27   153.0  161   80  19   51   97 
Linton               4.77   7   5  30  19   132.0  147   70  20   27   81 
Wilson               4.84   6   6  34  11   106.0  118   57  18   23   64 
Appier               4.85  10  11  30  30   169.0  179   91  24   55  109 
Reyes*               4.86   2   3  49   4    63.0   58   34   5   40   55 
Sullivan             4.89   4   4  72   0    81.0   81   44  11   31   63 
Anderson*            4.90  10  10  32  27   167.0  196   91  25   33   68 
Voyles               4.91   3   4  41   7    88.0   86   48  10   42   68 
Camp                 4.91   2   2  46   1    66.0   68   36   9   26   51 
May*                 5.06   8   9  33  28   176.0  193   99  29   52  109 
Hiljus               5.13   6   8  28  25   151.0  154   86  30   51  105 
Bridges              5.21   4   7  24  17   102.0  100   59  10   60   77 
Asencio              5.49   3   5  23  17    95.0  104   58  12   46   51 
Thompson             5.50   6   7  31  17   108.0  121   66  13   49   52 
Field                5.73   2   4  45   1    55.0   58   35  10   27   42 
Walrond*             5.74   5   8  31  15   105.0  111   67  18   54   77 
Baerlocher           5.89   6   9  28  22   142.0  161   93  28   60   87 
George*              6.02   9  14  30  29   157.0  180  105  28   73   84 
Seanez               6.30   2   5  40   0    40.0   40   28   8   29   39