Seattle Mariners

Last off-season, the biggest change the Seattle Mariners made was replacing longtime manager Lou Piniella with Arizona Diamondbacks bench coach Bob Melvin. This winter, the Mariners made a much more significant switch of general managers, with Pat Gillick stepping down and into the role of consultant. The Mariners hired former Angels GM Bill Bavasi to take his place.

Opinions on Gillick's handling of the Mariners will probably stay divided forever. Detractors note an excessive proclivity for veterans, and of course, the famed trading deadline inactivity that earned him the nickname "Stand Pat." Supporters point to key acquisitions that turned out exceedingly well (Bret Boone and Ichiro Suzuki, for example), players that were re-signed at reasonable rates (like Edgar Martinez and Jamie Moyer), and most importantly, the results the Mariners had under Gillick.

It's pretty close to impossible to evaluate the general manager of a baseball team in any objective way, particularly when the reviews are as mixed as they are for Gillick. And at best, the team's results under that GM provide a very rough indicator of the quality of his work. Still, Seattle's results under Gillick are noteworthy:

-- Over the course of Gillick's four-year tenure, the Mariners' win-loss record and their Pythagorean win-loss record were the best in baseball.

-- During those four years, the Mariners had a winning record against every American League team.

-- The four regular season win-loss records the Mariners posted under Gillick were the four best win-loss records in their history.

-- In those four seasons, the Mariners reached their league's championship series twice. The only other teams to do so were the Yankees (three times) and the Cardinals.

While Seattle has yet to win a championship or even reach the World Series, they have not suffered Houston Astro-like postseason failure, either. Under Gillick, the Mariners posted a passable playoff record of 9-10, winning two series and losing two. In the American League, only the Angels and Yankees won more postseason games over that time period.

To complicate matters, Gillick's actions--or lack thereof--have to be viewed as reflecting the team's philosophy, and not as the results of decisions made independently by Gillick. In particular, the reluctance to make substantial deadline moves appears to be endemic of the organization as a whole. The Mariners have the stated goal of remaining competitive, not burying their opponents, and in every season under Gillick, Seattle was already in first place at the trading deadline.

Regardless of how much credit Gillick should be given for his team's record, it would be difficult for any new general manager to match the success the Mariners had under Gillick. And Bill Bavasi's moves this off-season haven't appeared to be the kind that might produce that level of success. In fact, Seattle's moves this winter have been widely criticized as almost universally detrimental to the team's chances.

How bad has the off-season been? That question has two answers, both important, and yet the focus has been almost completely on the first. The first answer is that the moves themselves have looked awful. For example, Raul Ibañez was signed to a three-year deal for the Mariners, after which other outfielders from whom similar production could be expected (such as Jose Cruz Jr. or Juan Gonzalez) were signed to cheaper or shorter contracts. Furthermore, Seattle signed Ibañez before the deadline to offer arbitration, allowing the Royals to offer arbitration without risk and collect a draft pick from Seattle. The Mariners traded the best hitter on their bench, Greg Colbrunn, for Arizona's Quinton McCracken, who's unlikely to be a productive hitter at all. And they re-signed reliever Shigetoshi Hasegawa and not Arthur Rhodes, who looks like a much better bet for future success, and who ended up with Seattle's division-rival Oakland Athletics.

The second answer, though, is that the moves aren't likely to be tremendously significant. The two most notable changes were replacing centerfielder Mike Cameron with leftfielder Raul Ibañez--forcing Randy Winn to center--and replacing struggling third baseman Jeff Cirillo with former Anaheim first baseman Scott Spiezio. The difference in offensive production from the outfielders will likely be very small, as Cameron's hitting has not been much better than Ibañez's over the past few years, and Ibañez has the added bonus of being left-handed--something the Mariners need (it's also purported that lefties are less affected by the offense-dampening Safeco Field). There will, however, be an obvious and substantial defensive downgrade in the outfield. At third base, there will also be a loss of some defense, but it will be well exceeded by improvement in offense.

In general, on transactions alone, the Mariners have gotten worse, but not enough to make a large difference in the standings. More likely to contribute to their downfall is age-related decline; almost all of their position players are past their peak years, and Edgar Martinez in particular has had injury problems. Of course, the effects of age and injuries are much harder to predict than the effects of transactions.

Most everyone would agree that the 2004 Mariners will probably not be as good a team as the 2003 Mariners were. The natural question, then, is this: how far can the Mariners fall and stay competitive? Some would say not very, as the Mariners missed the playoffs last year and the year before. However, while the 2003 Mariners finished in second place by three games, they also had the best Pythagorean record in the major leagues. That means that based on runs scored and allowed alone, Seattle was the best team in baseball. Obviously, that's not the only measure, but it does suggest that Seattle was more of an AL West power than they may have appeared. In terms of Pythagorean percentage, the Mariners were actually three games better than Oakland and 17 games up on Anaheim (Anaheim also underperformed their Pythagorean percentage--they were 16 games behind Seattle in the actual standings).

Depending on a variety of factors, such as the health of Edgar Martinez, the effects of age on the rest of the team, and the performance of seemingly erratic players such as Freddy Garcia, the 2004 Mariners could be just a couple wins worse than the 2003 edition, or they could conceivably be ten or more games worse.

Because of the generally low opinion of Seattle's off-season, and the fact that they have missed the playoffs two years in a row--though every team in either year with a better record made the playoffs--expectations for the Mariners' 2004 performance have been undeservedly low. The 2003 Mariners didn't make the postseason, but they were almost certainly a playoff-quality team, and the moves Seattle has made over the winter have not been enough by themselves to drastically change that. If they don't suffer undue amounts of decline or bad luck, there is every reason to believe that the 2004 Mariners can be competitive in the AL West.

Whether they will be good enough to take first place in that division is a different question. It largely depends on how much Oakland and Anaheim have changed since last season. Anaheim has made a lot of improvements, but they also had a huge amount of ground to make up. Oakland's changes were less significant, but in a way their future is even less clear, as much depends on how well rookie shortstop Bobby Crosby can replace Miguel Tejada and how long their starting rotation can maintain their extraordinary success.

The defending champion Athletics look like the favorites to win their third consecutive division title, but Seattle and Anaheim both could be close enough in quality to make the 2004 AL West race a tightly contested one. It would not be shocking for any one of those three teams to come out on top. Unfortunately for the Mariners, it would also not be surprising for Seattle to slide out of the race altogether, but in all likelihood, they will keep relatively close to the action.

So how does Seattle break down position-by-position?

Catcher

The Mariners will carry Ben Davis and Dan Wilson again to share catching duties. Wilson is always guaranteed to make the team as he attempts to outlast Edgar Martinez to become the last vestige of the 1995 Mariners--the team that made a region love baseball and all that. Davis, on the other hand, was less of a certainty, as the club has decided he has some problems--most notably, excessive self-esteem, which they are making every effort to cure. The Mariners recently stated that Davis had been playing so poorly that he wouldn't make the roster were the season to start then. Instead, backup catcher duties would fall to Pat Borders (who is purported--based on four starts--to turn Freddy Garcia into Pedro Martinez), or possibly to a randomly-selected fan.

The team also said that if Davis does make the roster, he will not be calling pitches. Pitch-calling would instead be the responsibility of a Magic 8-Ball, which would also handle the bulk of the fielding duties.

This assumes that a rumored trade with Pittsburgh to bring Jason Kendall to Seattle doesn't occur, and it sure looks like it won't. Davis would possibly be part of the package going to Pittsburgh, so it appears that the Mariners are being careful not to oversell him. Given the treatment Davis has received from the team in the press, they'll be lucky to convince their AAA club, the Tacoma Rainiers, to accept him.

Nevertheless, Davis will make the team out of spring training, as he's the catcher most likely to contribute offensively in 2004 (largely because he's the rare Mariner catcher who doesn't vividly remember the Kennedy assassination). The Mariners assuredly have valid complaints about the rest of Davis's game, of course, but their eagerness to air their criticism in the press is disappointing and arguably counterproductive to both helping Davis's attitude and promoting the friendly image to which they seem so committed. Bob Melvin, if you read this: you seem like a nice guy, and I understand that we're all frustrated by the team missing the playoffs again. But rather than berating your players to the media, why not take out your anger by throwing a base? At least it entertains the fans.

Both Wilson and Davis had down years offensively in 2003, so the Mariners can reasonably expect somewhat better production from the position in 2004.

First Base

Last year, I wrote of first baseman John Olerud:

John Olerud is consistent and good--not Rafael Palmeiro consistent and good, but close. He's never had an OPS+ below 110, and has played in over 150 games for the past six years.

Olerud responded by posting an OPS+ of 105, his lowest on-base percentage since 1991, and his first-ever slugging percentage under .400. With only ten home runs, Olerud appeared to experience a severe loss of power. Again, though, there's good reason to expect him to rebound some. However, given Olerud's age, the decline could be real and even progress further.

Olerud could also use a platoon partner--he could have in 2003, too--but the only real candidate for that role, Greg Colbrunn, a good-hitting right-hander, was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Quinton McCracken. Without Colbrunn, the Mariners have no good options for first base other than Olerud.

Second Base

After the 2000 season, the Mariners signed Bret Boone to man second. At that time, he might reasonably have been expected to provide good defense and at least average offense for a second baseman. Instead, Boone became Seattle's best player, a title which he still appears to hold. Nevertheless, Mariner fans can enjoy considering the terrifying possibility of starting the season and watching Boone once again hit like his old self.

It reminds one of the fairy tale in which a young woman kissed a frog and watched as he suddenly became a handsome, arrogant prince with blond tips. Sure, it's great news for her, but she also has to wonder--this guy's been a frog before; who says it can't happen again? At the very least, she sends him to the doctor whenever she finds something that might be a wart.

All the same, if she is wise, she will enjoy the good times and not worry about the future. So it is with Bret Boone. If he continues what he's done recently, he should find himself once again on the edges of MVP candidacy.

Shortstop

For Mariner fans not knowing what to think of the new general manager, the most encouraging moment of the offseason and the most discouraging moment of the offseason both involved Seattle's attempts to replace shortstop Carlos Guillen--and they both involved moves that didn't end up happening. On the good side, the Mariners pursued Oakland shortstop Miguel Tejada, offering enough to show that they were serious but not enough to show that they were insane. Tejada, who had in the past expressed a desire to play in Seattle, ended up taking a superior offer from the Baltimore Orioles. The Mariners were unwilling to overpay, but their offer of $45 million over five years was not unreasonably low.

However, when the Mariners failed to acquire Tejada, they instead set their sights on former Mariner Omar Vizquel, who, while once a valuable shortstop, is now unlikely to contribute even as much as Carlos Guillen. Furthermore, Vizquel was owed an outlandish $7 million for 2004, compared to Guillen's $2.5 million. Still, the Mariners attempted to trade Guillen for Vizquel, and only Vizquel's failing a physical put a stop to the move, which had appeared to be a certainty.

In the end, the Mariners traded Guillen to Detroit for shortstop Ramon Santiago and prospect Juan Gonzalez, and signed Rich Aurilia to start at shortstop. It's unlikely that there will be much difference in productivity between Aurilia and Guillen. Aurilia's salary is a little higher, but in the end, the move probably won't make much difference to the team--making it a happy medium between acquiring Tejada and trading for Vizquel.

Third base

There's an old saying: "When you're tired of all the troubles you're having, go out and find some new ones." At least, it should be an old saying, and if it were, it would be the one that Mariners heeded when they finally traded Jeff Cirillo. Cirillo's unique mix of good defense and absolutely nothing else was a staple of the Mariners' hot corner for two years. But he and his burdensome contract were traded to San Diego this winter. In return, Seattle received four players, including the Padres' Kevin Jarvis, also an expensive and largely unproductive player. The Mariners also sent cash to make the salaries equal, so each team is hoping that the change does the struggling players some good.

To replace Cirillo, the Mariners signed former Angels first baseman cum musician Scott Spiezio, a move which, along with the acquisition of guitar namesake Raul Ibañez, is expected to make the team considerably more rockin'. Spiezio should also exceed Cirillo on offense sufficiently to overcome the defensive downgrade. That's right, third base is the Official 2004 Position At Which The Mariners Can Be Expected to Notably Improve! At $9 million dollars over three years, Spiezio's contract is reasonable, though some may worry that he'll block Justin Leone, who may have done as good a job as Spiezio for less money. Still, it's hard to blame Seattle for going for more certainty and paying reasonable salaries for decent solutions--which is what they did at third base and shortstop. It's possible both moves were unnecessary, but neither was particularly bad, either.

Outfield

This year, while Ichiro Suzuki will remain in right field, Randy Winn will move from left to center and Raul Ibañez will take over in left. That means that the only difference on offense will be the replacement of Mike Cameron with Ibañez. Cameron is likely to be the better hitter, but probably not by a very large amount. The outfield's offensive production will probably be about the same, or a little worse, than it was in 2003.

Defensively, the outfield will be much worse, however. According to weighted ultimate zone rating, Randy Winn is about 16 runs better than average in left field, whereas Ibañez is 6 runs better. That's a downgrade there, but more significantly, Winn is rated at 16 runs worse than average in center, and Mike Cameron is rated 26 runs better than average. The dropoff is enormous, and combined with the downgrades in left field and at third base, it will make the Mariners a notably worse defensive team in 2004.

Designated Hitter

Edgar Martinez has remained a superb hitter even as he has reached the age of forty. While his power has diminished, he is still one of the league's best at getting on base. His OBP hasn't been below .400 since 1994. He should be a key part of the offense as long as he can stay healthy--and health could be a serious issue for Edgar. Unfortunately, there isn't anyone to provide a suitable replacement at DH should he get injured--thanks once again to the loss of Greg Colbrunn. So Edgar's health is extremely important to Seattle's chances.

Starting Rotation

Last year, the Mariners used only five starters all year, and long after people forget who won the 2003 World Series, they'll remember that. Well, maybe not, but it is an interesting fact. This year, the Mariners look to open the season with the same five guys in the rotation: Jamie Moyer, Joel Piñeiro, Freddy Garcia, Gil Meche, and Ryan Franklin. Should one of them falter, their spot will likely be usurped by either Kevin Jarvis or Rafael Soriano. The prospect of Soriano pitching from the rotation with the kind of talent he's showed in the bullpen is a tantalizing one. But he'll start the year, at least, in the bullpen, and the Mariners shouldn't be faulted for exercising caution with him.

Jamie Moyer

Jamie "DIPS Exception" Moyer may benefit from the low batting average on balls in play that he is used to--and that he is purported to help cause. Whether that's true or not, you don't need to poke holes in DIPS to make Moyer a good pitcher. Moyer allows few enough home runs and walks that, even with a moderate strikeout rate, he is a good pitcher based solely on his peripherals. Moyer was effectively tied with Joel Piñeiro for the best DIPS ERA among Mariner starters. He may suffer some from the defensive changes in the outfield, but as far as starting pitching, Moyer's the last thing the Mariners should worry about. Actually, he's the second to last, because . . .

Joel Piñeiro

. . . is the last. It's not just that Piñeiro is good, it's that he's also young. I don't know what you call someone who's both good and young, but it's usually not "a Seattle Mariner." The only younger players who actually appeared in a 2003 Mariner game were Luis Ugueto and Rafael Soriano. Piñeiro and Moyer provide a good, dependable top to the Mariner rotation. It's the rest of the staff that might be more cause for concern.

Freddy Garcia

Lately, Freddy Garcia has been as inconsistent as the similes in this preview. His 2003 monthly ERAs were extremely varied:

4.21 April
7.22 May
2.05 June
9.45 July
4.28 August
1.97 September

In 2001, Garcia was the best Mariner pitcher. Since then, he's been erratic and at times ineffective. That means Garcia has a good chance of repeating his lackluster 2003 this season, but it also means that he's the Mariner starter most likely to improve. Garcia pitching the way he has in the past could do a lot to offset the harm the new defensive deficiencies cause the other starters.

Ryan Franklin

Ryan Franklin may miss Mike Cameron more than anyone, as much of his success has depended on converting a high percentage of balls in play into outs. Franklin is an extreme flyball pitcher, so major changes in the defensive quality of the outfield will have a bigger effect on him than anyone else. His 2003 batting average allowed on balls in play was a very low .248, so while Franklin looked good in 2003 with a 3.57 ERA, he's almost certain to have a much higher ERA in 2004. He allowed 34 home runs in 2003; if Bret Boone hadn't managed 35, he would have led the team. Home runs are his biggest problem; if he can manage to reduce them, he can be a good back-of-the-rotation starter.

Gil Meche

Of the thousands of Mariner pitching prospects who have been plagued by injuries, Meche is the one who's actually made it to the level of productive major leaguer. After he pitched well in 1999 and 2000, injuries kept him off the Mariners' staff until last year. Meche was one of three Mariner pitchers to make the league's top ten in home runs allowed in 2003 (the others were Garcia and Franklin), and the rate at which he gave up homers was much higher than it had been during his first stint in the majors. Lowering that rate would make him look much better, but Meche probably won't be much worse than league average anyway.

The Bullpen

The 2003 Mariners had the second best bullpen ERA (3.36) in the American League, behind the Anaheim Angels. However, they've had a lot of turnover. Gone are Arthur Rhodes, Kazuhiro Sasaki, and Armando Benitez (and Jeff Nelson, for whom Benitez was acquired). The three pitchers who experienced the best results in 2003--Rafael Soriano, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, and Julio Mateo--are all back with the club. And they are all likely to do well in 2004. However, there's plenty of reason to believe that the Mariners could have better selected who they would keep.

According to the quick DIPS formula, and among pitchers with at least 30 innings, Rafael Soriano was only bested in 2003 by Eric Gagne and John Smoltz. However, the next four Mariners on the list were Arthur Rhodes, Kazuhiro Sasaki, Jeff Nelson, and Armando Benitez. Shigetoshi Hasegawa did much better than his peripheral numbers indicate he should have--meaning he's likely to be a lot worse in 2004 and a good candidate to be overvalued. Arthur Rhodes, on the other hand, was better than he looked, and will likely do better in 2004 than Hasegawa will--except he'll do it for the division rival Oakland Athletics. Rhodes had been the best reliever on the Mariners since he arrived (with the exception of Soriano). If the Mariners felt the need to decide between Hasegawa and Rhodes, Rhodes probably would have been the better choice.

However, Hasegawa and Mateo will still probably be useful out of the bullpen, and new closer Eddie Guardado was a good acquisition. Ron Villone and Kevin Jarvis look to be less valuable, however. Villone has had just a little recent success, and Jarvis hasn't had much at all. At this point, the Mariners may also give another bullpen spot to another left-hander--either Terry Mulholland or Mike Myers--which would give them twelve pitchers. Either way, the bullpen looks to be notably worse in 2004. As a whole, the newly added pitchers are worse than the departed ones, and the ones who stayed probably won't be as good this year.

The Bench

In 2003, the Mariners managed a major-league worst eight pinch hits. In the American League, only Texas and Cleveland saw their pinch-hitters post a lower collective OPS than Seattle's (.519). It would seem nearly impossible to make the Mariner bench worse for 2004, but the team may just have found a way.

The masterstroke in ensuring the worsening of the bench was the trade of Greg Colbrunn to Arizona for Quinton McCracken, who may be a better option on defense but will be much worse on offense. Dave Hansen will also join the bench, having come over in the Cirillo trade, and looks to be the best pinch-hitting option, with a career OBP of .365 and a career OPS+ of 103. He doesn't appear to be as good a hitter as Colbrunn, but he will keep the bench from being completely devoid of offense. In addition to McCracken, Hansen, and the spare catcher of the day, the bench will also include Willie Bloomquist, Ramon Santiago, or both--depending on whether the Mariners carry twelve pitchers or not--to serve as utility infielders. Neither of them have much to offer at the plate.

* * *

All in all, the Mariners look worse. There's no way around that fact. The remaining questions are: how much worse are they, and how much worse can they be and still have a chance in the AL West?

The answers will become clearer as the 2004 season plays out, but it is not yet time to write off the Mariners as some have done. The other AL West contenders have weaknesses of their own, and much depends on which players perform unexpectedly or suffer injuries. Seattle may not really be a part of the race at all, but more likely, they'll be something of a threat, even if they are just on the edge of competitiveness, and even if, come season's end, they're left out as they have been the past two years.

2004 ZiPS Projections

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC    G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS 
Boone              2b  .283  .351  .515  156  608   95  172  45   3  30  107   57  113  11   5 
Martinez           dh  .268  .387  .431  126  425   55  114  24   0  15   62   75   87   1   1 
Olerud*            1b  .272  .379  .438  153  541   68  147  45   0  15   77   88   66   0   1 
Ichiro*            rf  .325  .373  .436  160  684  111  222  32   7  10   79   47   63  34  13 
Snelling*          cf  .305  .357  .432   58  220   30   67   9   2   5   27   16   32   2   4 
Winn#              lf  .287  .348  .417  153  585   86  168  36   5  10   67   48  103  21   8 
Leone              3b  .236  .338  .432  127  433   72  102  26   4  17   61   63  118   8   4 
Aurilia            ss  .267  .320  .441  137  546   75  146  31   2  20   80   40   84   1   2 
Spiezio#           1b  .255  .332  .409  155  509   62  130  31   4  13   62   53   61   5   5 
Ibanez*            lf  .260  .319  .425  145  539   67  140  28   5  17   70   45   75   6   4 
Davis#             c   .251  .336  .389  100  319   36   80  17   0   9   41   39   76   1   2 
Gonzalez           c   .244  .336  .373   65  193   16   47  11   1   4   22   25   26   1   0 
Hansen*            1b  .238  .353  .338  101  130   12   31   7   0   2   13   22   25   1   0 
Strong             cf  .282  .354  .325  104  394   53  111  10   2   1   32   40   69  22  15 
Owens              cf  .274  .321  .355  118  332   38   91  14   2   3   32   23   35  14   9 
Bloomquist         3b  .264  .322  .332  104  367   48   97  15   2   2   32   28   50  13   8 
McCracken#         rf  .246  .307  .350  112  260   29   64  16   4   1   20   22   48   4   3 
Wilson             c   .252  .290  .365  107  337   32   85  21   1   5   36   17   64   1   1 
Ugueto#            2b  .249  .312  .329  109  350   59   87  12   2   4   32   29   76  16  10 
Santiago#          ss  .244  .311  .313  129  422   46  103  13   2   4   36   33   63   5   5 
Faison*            lf  .225  .304  .304  110  378   37   85  14   2   4   32   39  120   7   3 

Name                  ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Soriano              3.12   6   3  39  12   104.0   81   36  10   30  108 
Guardado*            3.43   5   2  67   0    63.0   52   24   7   18   60 
Mateo                3.51   3   2  48   0    77.0   68   30  10   16   67 
Pineiro              3.61  14   8  32  28   187.0  165   75  17   58  144 
Johnson              3.70  11   6  26  26   151.0  135   62  11   53  104 
Garcia               3.77  15  10  34  34   217.0  195   91  24   65  170 
Hasegawa             3.88   5   4  56   0    65.0   62   28   4   23   36 
Moyer*               3.88  15  10  33  33   211.0  202   91  22   56  130 
Taylor               3.90   4   2  55   0    67.0   56   29   6   29   63 
Heaverlo             4.01   7   5  26  26   148.0  140   66  16   47   98 
Looper               4.07   5   3  54   0    84.0   77   38   9   30   63 
Madritsch*           4.21  11   9  27  27   154.0  134   72  16   70  130 
Putz                 4.32   7   6  31  17   123.0  113   59  12   55   84 
Meche                4.39  12  11  31  28   160.0  152   78  23   55  121 
Nageotte             4.62   7   7  28  28   154.0  130   79  15   96  137 
Villone*             4.64   8   9  44  17   132.0  124   68  16   60  106 
Franklin             4.64   9   9  30  22   161.0  167   83  24   45   85 
Myers*               5.00   0   1  67   0    36.0   34   20   3   21   28 
Jarvis               5.10   6  11  23  23   134.0  146   76  24   38   87 
Blackley*            5.20   8  10  25  24   142.0  134   82  20   84  115 
Mulholland*          5.55   1   4  42   3    86.0   98   53  16   29   40 
Anderson*            5.94   7  13  28  27   162.0  183  107  31   73   64 

ZiPS Projections are not playing time predictors; they project a player's performance given playing time in the majors in their accustomed role. As with all projections, specific knowledge of non-statistical attributes of the player should temper what the computer says.