Colorado Rockies

Last year, the Rockies finished 74-88, continuing their streak of finishing fourth or fifth in the NL West for the sixth straight season. They underperformed their Pythagorean projection by four games, but that actually is misleading. In fact, the Rockies went 49-32 at home, three games better than expected. On the road, however, the Rockies were abysmal 25-56, five games worse than their run differential should indicate. Here’s a chart showing how many games they have been above or below their expected record at home and away throughout their time in Coors Field:

               Home         Away 
2003           +3           -5 
2002           +3           +3 
2001           -1           -8 
2000            0           -3 
1999           +2            0 
1998            0           -1 
1997           +3           -2 
1996           +8           -1 
1995           +8           -4 
1994            0           +1 
Total:        +26          -20

Charles Johnson had a miserable season in 2003 following a poor 2002. Johnson will turn 33 during this season and has already caught 1050 games in his career. The Rockies should be looking to upgrade at this position as Johnson is nearing the end of his career. Unfortunately, they will probably find his contract even more difficult to move than Mike Hampton’s. Johnson is owed $18 million over the next two seasons and the Rockies will definitely be stuck paying the majority of that even if there is a trade.

Todd Helton is owed a remarkable $126.3 million through the 2011 season. Last year, Helton had another phenomenal season finishing in the top ten in the National League in: batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, games, runs, hits, total bases, doubles, runs batted in, and walks. In fact, he is currently the active leader in career batting average. Last season, he bounced back from back problems in 2002 to finish with the highest OPS+ of his career. Sadly, Helton is underrated by most baseball fans that either overvalue the Coors Effect on his performance or simply have not been exposed to him frequently.

Aaron Miles was acquired from the Chicago White Sox for Juan Uribe during the off-season. He has poor plate discipline (his minor league career high in walks is 40 in each of the last two years), but has hit over .300 the past two seasons in AA and AAA. Last year, Miles posted a 796 OPS at AAA Charlotte. However, he is already 27 years old so he is not considered a top prospect by any means.

Damian Jackson will also be challenging for the position after spending last season as a utility player in Boston. Jackson will already be thirty-one this year and has just one season with over 40 at bats and an OPS over 700. I would be shocked if Miles does not win this positional battle in Spring Training and he is considered the favorite.

Vinny Castilla is back. He’s back physically in Colorado in the hopes of rekindling the magic of the Blake Street Bombers from the mid-1990s. He’s also back metaphorically from the pits of hell that was his 2002 season as he rebounded in 2003 to accumulate his best OPS+ since 1998. However, he’ll turn 36 in July and he is a very good bet to revert to his pre-2003 level of poor play. The Coors Effect will mask his decline somewhat, but Vinny Castilla’s time as an offensive threat is basically up.

However, Castilla is still an above-average defensive third baseman. As a defensive specialist, Castilla may have some use, but his time as an everyday starter should be nearing its end.

Fun Fact #1: Clayton has had an on base percentage above .320 in just three seasons during his thirteen year career – most recently in 1999

Fun Fact #2: According to Baseball-Reference, the most similar player to Clayton through this point in his career has been Dave Concepcion. Hopefully, Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds will not be obnoxiously outspoken in pushing his Hall of Fame candidacy in thirty years.

Fun Fact #3: Clint Barmes, Juan Uribe, Jose Hernandez, and Tony Womack combined to play 96% of the Rockies innings as shortstop last year. Of the four, Barmes was the only player with a positive VORP and his total was a whopping 0.3.

Fun Fact #4: Only Paul Konerko and Jay Payton hit into more double-plays last season than Royce Clayton.

Fun Fact #5: Manager Clint Hurdle has already announced that Clayton will be batting second in the Rockies lineup this year.

Burnitz bounced back from his miserable 2002 season to accumulate respectable stats throughout the first half of last season. The Mets wisely traded him to the offensively challenged Dodgers, and he immediately reverted to his 2002 level of play. He was basically a replacement-level corner outfielder during his stint with the Dodgers as he posted a 202/252/391 line. His saving grace during his struggles was his power as he managed to hit 31 homeruns despite playing his home games in two pitchers’ parks.

Burnitz’s plate discipline has completely vanished during the past two seasons. From 1997-2001 he drew an average of 83 walks per season. The last two years, however, he drew just 93 walks combined in 1055 plate appearances.

The Rockies are wagering that Burnitz can duplicate his early-2003 performance as they pencil him in as their starting left-fielder this season. His power will make him a useful player, but he will probably not be as productive as Jay Payton, the man he is replacing. It seems that Dan O’Dowd spent the off-season reading Rany Jazayerli’s theory about building an offense in Colorado.

In his first season in Colorado, Wilson was named to the All-Star team for the first time despite the fact that he was having a virtually similar season to his previous four. Wilson has had an OPS+ between 101-119 in each of his five seasons as a full-time starter, but he has had a tendency to perform better in odd-years (ala Bret Saberhagen).

Wilson took advantage of Coors Field to post a career high in runs batted in and doubles, but he was no better offensively last season than in 1999-2001. It does seem that his 2002 season may have been an aberration and that the Rockies can probably pencil in Wilson for an OPS+ around 110. Thus, Wilson will be a net positive overall for the Rockies, but will not be nearly as good offensively as his statistics (especially his RBI totals accumulated in the middle of a high scoring offense) would indicate.

Walker played in more games last season than in any year since 1997. Unfortunately for the Rockies, he also had his worst season with Colorado offensively as his power dropped significantly. Walker had 22 fewer extra base hits in 23 fewer at bats and had his lowest slugging percentage since 1993. On the bright side, Walker still reached base at a .422 clip which was the fifth best on base percentage in the National League.

During the break, Walker participated in a rigorous workout regime to get back into better playing shape. Last season his weight ballooned all the way to 263 pounds, but he reported to Spring Training this season thirty pounds lighter. Walker seems determined to prove that last year was a fluke as many people, most notably manager Clint Hurdle, questioned his desire during the season.

Todd Greene was brought to Colorado to replace Bobby Estalella as the primary backup catcher. He has never lived up to the hype he accumulated while back in the minor leagues from 1995-97. The Rockies will be his fifth team in the past six seasons and he seems to be sliding into the role of perpetual backup catcher. His problem has typically been a high strikeout rate while his biggest offensive strength is his power. Thus, he is yet another player that was seemingly acquired in the hopes that Jazayerli’s theory about assembling a winning team in Colorado is correct. Last year, Greene had a stunning 102.5 at bats per walk as he drew just two free passes.

Benji Gil compiled a 486 OPS last season as one of many Anaheim Angels to regress following their surprising 2002 season. Gil has had poor plate discipline since first entering the Majors back as a twenty-year old shortstop in 1993. To date, his career strikeout-to-walk rate is 4.39 and has actually been even worse the past two years: 6.60 and 8.25. His usefulness is primarily based on his batting average which makes a slightly better bet to be successful with the Rockies than with any other team since batting averages are bumped up in Colorado. However, his main competition for a roster spot is…

Denny Hocking was signed by the Rockies after spending fourteen years in the Minnesota organization. He has a cannon for an arm but his range has been declining with age. He can fill in at any position but pitcher and catcher, but he is practically useless with a bat at this point. He has hit much better historically from the right-side, but he compiled a 172/197/281 line that way last season. The end is near for Hocking, but he may be able to hold on for one or two more years. He also has provided sarcastic, but insightful quotes to the press during his time as the Twins’ player representative. It would not surprise me to see him get a gig in the Players’ Union after his playing days.

Last season, Mark Sweeney accumulated a 868 OPS at AAA Colorado Springs before joining the Rockies midseason and racking up his highest total of plate appearances in the majors since 1998. He took advantage of Coors Field as his OPS was 378 points higher than on the road. However, the Rockies really have no need for a left-handed corner outfielder/first basemen with Todd Helton, Larry Walker and Jeremy Burnitz on hand. For a trip down memory lane, here is a list of all of the players for which Sweeney has ever been traded: John Habyan, Scott Livingstone, Phil Plantier, Fernando!, Damian Jackson, Reggie Sanders, Alex Ochoa (twice), Benny Agbayani, Todd Zeile, Lenny F. Harris, and Glendon Rusch.

Rene Reyes is yet another weak-hitting option for the Rockies bench. He probably has the inside track on the job as fifth outfielder unless the Rockies are daring enough to use Denny Hocking or Damian Jackson as their backup centerfielder. Reyes has hit for extremely high batting averages in the minors, but does not have any plate discipline and below average power. He also had a groundball-to-flyball ratio of 2.15 which means that he could be a slower, heavier version Juan Pierre.

Jason Jennings took a step back from his Rookie of the Year season in 2002. His main problem was issuing 18 more walks in 4 fewer innings. In addition, his strikeout rate dropped slightly from a level that was already below league average. His decrease in strikeouts coupled with the fact that he plays in Coors Field helped contribute to an increase in the number of hits that he allowed. He really needs to improve on his control if he wants to last as successful pitcher in Colorado because he is already pitching from a disadvantage with his low strikeout rate.

Dennis Stark is another right-handed starter with a below average strikeout rate. Plus, Stark has a tendency to walk nearly as many men as he strikes out and allows a lot of homeruns. However, last season he suffered a upper back injury which has only postponed the inevitable date that the Rockies realize his successful 2002 was a fluke. He has allowed over 1.5 base runners per inning through his Major League career and does not deserve more than a nominal shot at a fifth spot in someone’s rotation.

After missing all of 2002 while recovering from shoulder surgery, Scott Elarton rejoined the Rockies pitching staff during the second half of last season. In 51.2 innings, Elarton had a strikeout rate of roughly half the rate he had totaled in his career before the injury. In addition, his walk rate has already been around the league average which means he is yet another pitcher that will be allowing a lot of balls to be hit into play. Back in 2000, Elarton went 17-7 but his peripherals make that year appear very fluky. If he can somehow turn back the clock and begin striking nearly a batter an inning like in 1998 and 1999, then Elarton’s chances for future success skyrocket. However, he is probably never going to hold down a consistent spot in a starting rotation again.

In last season’s Devil Rays preview, Craig Burley and David Peng noted, "Because of a horrific bullpen, [Joe] Kennedy was forced to go deep into games, getting through the 7th in 17 of his 30 starts. During his most effective stretch late in the season, Kennedy threw 39 innings with a 2.31 ERA with pitch counts numbering 107, 115, 124, 115, and 124. Predictably, he gave up 20 runs in his next three starts. As tough as he is, with the mileage he’s logged on his arm, he’s cruisin’ for a bruisin’. His mechanics will help keep him healthy, but the stress of fatigue will be a constant threat to his medium- and long-term health." Sure enough, Kennedy spent time on the disabled list with inflammation in his pitching shoulder during the season, and he eventually finished the year in the bullpen. Kennedy still has three solid pitches, but he was forced to throw too many meaningless pitches early in his career. In fact, having a lessened workload may be a blessing in the long run as it saved his arm, but he is yet another pitcher with a middling strikeout rate expected to be in the Rockies pitching staff.

In 77.2 innings last season, Jeff Fassero allowed 17 homeruns. In an attempt to top that incredible ratio, Fassero agreed to join the Rockies. In fact, he signed with the Rockies hoping to become a member of their starting rotation. Before you laugh, keep in mind that the Rockies coaxed a decent season out of Darren Oliver last season, so anything truly is possible.

Here is Fassero’s innings/homerun allowed from 1991-2003: 55.1, 85.2, 21.1, 10.2, 12.2, 11.2, 11.0, 6.2, 4.1, 8.0, 12.1, 7.2, 4.2. I am not sure what conclusions can be drawn from that list except Fassero does not seem to have any consistency regarding how many balls he keeps in the park. It was a long time ago, but Fassero’s Major League debut occurred when he was basically a LOOGY and already twenty-eight. His career should give hope to all the AAA left-handed pitchers that have yet to get an extended look in the majors like Jim Crowell or Kevin Tolar.

Anyway, Fassero is only a non-roster invite to Spring Training so there is still a chance that the Rockies’ fans will not be exposed to his pitching. He would probably be wise to simply retire at this point in his career, but I can’t blame any player from hanging on as long as possible. Last season, Fassero had the second-lowest groundball-to-flyball ratio of his career.

In every season since 1997 when he won 19 games, Shawn Estes has been, at best, a league average starter. The Rockies will be his fifth organization in the past 30 months, and he is dangerously close to pitching his way out of the Majors. Last year, he had a 6.94 ERA in day games and a 3.75 ERA in night games so he might bounce back pitching in the cool Colorado evenings (it’s mandatory to mention his day/night splits). Estes had a K/9 inning rate of over 8 back when he was winning in San Francisco; however, the rate has been continuously plummeting and is now hovering around 6 K/9. His control has not improved with age either and was 4.8 BB/9 innings from 2000-03. The market for LOOGY’s with middling strikeout rates and poor walk rates is not very good so Estes might be looking at his last shot.

Aaron Cook finished behind only Derek Lowe, Brandon Webb, Kevin Brown, and Roy Halladay in groundball-to-flyball ratio. Of course, as a probable Rockies starter, he had a lower K/9 inning ratio than any of those pitchers (sense a trend?). It is universally agreed that he has a filthy sinker with incredible movement; however, he still struggles with his control and he allowed a ridiculous .346 batting average on hits into play last season. Simply by regressing to the mean, he will be an improved pitcher. His success will usually be highly dependent on his infield defense which means he is probably one of the loudest people applauding the Rockies acquisition of Royce Clayton and Vinny Castilla.

Chin-hui Tsao can actually strike batters out. Unlike basically every other candidate for the starting rotation, Tsao has been well above his league average in K/9 innings at every stop. In fact, for his minor league career he has averaged 10.6 K/9 and a 4.6 K/BB ratio. Coors Field will probably deflate his strikeout totals slightly, but he still should put up some great numbers. He has sufficiently recovered from Tommy John surgery three summers ago and must be considered one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. During his brief trial in the Rockies’ rotation at the end of last season, he was erratic but did not have any real disaster starts. Look for him to be a full-time member of the starting rotation by June, and to be one have a solid, if unspectacular, rookie season.

Jason Young joins Tsao and Cook as another young hard-throwing option. He pitched briefly with the Rockies last year while spending most of the season at Colorado Springs and nursing an injury. He allowed 8 homeruns in just 21.1 innings with the Rockies and allowed a .371 batting average on balls hit into play. The Rockies would be smart to let one of these three prospects pitching in long relief rather than wasting the innings on someone like Adam Bernero, but they probably would rather have them continue starting –even if it takes place in the minors.

Last year, Shawn Chacon had a great April finishing the month with a 4-0 record and 1.04 ERA. During the rest of the season, he had a 7-8 record with a 5.80 ERA and his BB/9 innings rate increased almost 90%. Of course, he also suffered an injury in his pitching elbow that prematurely ended his season. In order to protect his arm, the Rockies have decided to convert him to pitching in relief. It is impossible to know how he will adapt to his new role because he has just 1 relief appearance in his entire professional career (and that came way back in 1997).

If the Rockies are making this move solely to maximize the production that they receive from Chacon (which is what they are saying publicly), then the move is pretty defensible. If, however, they are moving in the hopes of finding another Eric Gagne, then they will disappointed with the results. The fact that Chacon has three above average pitches really could be wasted in a strict one-inning role. Thus, I suggest that Clint Hurdle use creativity to try to coax a few two, or even three, inning appearances out of Chacon. This could help with the development of Tsao and Cook by not forcing them to pitch into the eighth inning, while also allowing Chacon to use his full assortment of pitches.

The Rockies have a pair of side-arming left-handed relievers in Brian Fuentes and Javier Lopez. Both pitched in 75 games last season out of the Rockies pen. Fuentes has always had great strikeout rates, but last season was the first time that he ever really harnessed his control. He held right-handed batters to a 706 OPS which meant that Lopez could fill more of a LOOGY role. Lopez was a Rule V player (although not the Rockies Rule V pick) last season and easily exceeded expectations. He was generally protected all season and had just one appearance in which he faced over five batters. Of course, in that game he was allowed to absorb a drubbing at the hands of the Twins as he was charged with seven runs in two-thirds of an inning. In fact, by removing that one game from his stat line, Lopez had a 2.65 ERA last year. Overall, he had a 1.71 ERA in Coors Field and held opponents to a .209 batting average at home. Both of those numbers will likely rise this season, but the Rockies will probably to find a good use for a left-handed with a 3.3 K/BB ratio.

Steve Reed resigned with the Rockies during the off-season to reprise his role as ROOGY out of their pen. He is the third side-arming reliever in their pen and has been a very consistent pitcher throughout his career. Last year, he was absolute murder on right-handers as he held them to a 505 OPS. In fact, he has held righties to a 521 OPS during the last three years combined. He will be able to pitch adequately in the majors as long as he can continue to sling in his slider with reasonable command.

Adam Bernero has a slim chance of pitching his way into the starting rotation, but he will probably be spending the year in the bullpen. However, Bernero over 50% of the first batters he faced as a reliever to reach base last year. If Bernero ever wants to see some action in meaningful innings, then he really needs to start retiring some batters. Otherwise, he will remain gasoline waiting to ignite a five-alarm fire when relieving with runners on base.

Turk Wendell has already made headlines during Spring Training for shooting off his mouth about Barry Bonds. He successfully bounced back last season from elbow surgery, but tired down the stretch as the Phillies phaded phrom the Wild Card chase. Like Reed, Wendell relies primarily on a slider, and he held right-handed batters to a 588 OPS last year. Wendell will probably pitch in middle relief for the Rockies. It will be pretty fun to watch the first time Barry Bonds faces Wendell in Coors Field this year since Turk already turns almost every batter into an All-Star (917 OPS against in his last two seasons).

Jeff Tam and Travis Driskill spent last season in the American League East. After two solid seasons in Oakland’s bullpen, Tam struggled the last two years with the Blue Jays. He always had a low strikeout rate, but was able to survive because of excellent control. Here are his K/BB rates for every season since 2000: 2.00, 1.52, 1.08, 1.04. Driskill, on the other hand, pitched with the Orioles last season after finally reaching the majors as a thirty year-old rookie in 2002. Driskill is about the very definition of replacement-level pitcher as he will not kill a team’s chances, but not do anything to help them either. Since it took him nine minor league seasons to reach the majors in the first place, he will probably bounce around for a few more before retiring.

The Rockies have several bright spots. First, their bullpen was very solid last year and should continue to be an asset as it includes pitchers with several different styles and abilities. If Clint Hurdle can get a little creative with his usage, he should find himself with favorable match-ups in the late innings of nearly every game while also not being forced to ride some of this young pitching prospects hard. In addition, Todd Helton should continue to be one of the best players in all of baseball while Charles Johnson and Larry Walker both worked very hard to put their injury-plagued and subpar recent seasons behind them.

However, the starting rotation looks like it will initially be filled with a lot of guys that should really be NRIs in Spring Training every season. The Rockies would really be better off letting Aaron Cook, Chin-hui Tsao and Aaron Young take their lumps every fifth day, but the team seems content to let players like Shawn Estes, Jeff Fassero, and Dennis Stark get pounded by the rest of the league.

Offensively, the Rockies will be dependent on station-to-station baseball as Aaron Miles is really the only starter that can create trouble on the basepaths. The thin air might help the Rockies coax decent seasons out of Vinny Castilla and Jeremy Burnitz, but they really should be considered placeholders rather than fixtures. The bench should be absolutely putrid as O’Dowd attempted to collect as many utility infielders as possible.

In short, the Rockies really are a team in that should win between 70 and 80 games for fourth year in a row. The sooner the team abandons the retread starting pitchers and turns the reigns over to the youngsters, the more the team’s chances for reaching .500 improve.

2004 ZiPS Projections

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC    G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS 
Helton*            1b  .347  .455  .621  160  585  123  203  50   4  34  123  111   83   3   4 
Walker*            rf  .293  .410  .522  138  454   81  133  39   4  19   75   86   80   6   5 
Wilson             cf  .289  .357  .537  147  561   95  162  38   1  33  109   55  132  16   9 
Hawpe*             1b  .284  .359  .491  108  391   67  111  27   0  18   67   42   87   1   2 
Johnson            c   .269  .352  .496  108  357   43   96  30   0  17   63   43   91   0   2 
Reyes#             rf  .319  .357  .467  127  492   80  157  31   3  12   68   25   76   8   8 
Burnitz*           lf  .251  .330  .533  139  482   81  121  32   1  34   98   51  125   4   6 
Closser#           c   .270  .345  .482  109  396   67  107  27   3  17   63   45   76   3   3 
Piedra*            cf  .283  .341  .475  113  417   68  118  22   5  16   61   32   66   5   3 
Atkins             3b  .297  .359  .439  142  528   94  157  28   1  15   74   51   70   2   4 
Sweeney*           lf  .274  .360  .443  127  325   46   89  32   1   7   43   42   71   2   3 
Pellow             1b  .282  .330  .485  117  425   68  120  21   1  21   72   26   96   2   2 
Miles#             2b  .298  .352  .436  127  516   71  154  32   3  11   66   38   48   8   9 
Freeman            cf  .289  .365  .427  109  391   75  113  12   3  12   51   43   84   4   9 
Holliday           lf  .285  .355  .394  122  442   77  126  19   4   7   48   44   88  14   8 
Castilla           3b  .268  .309  .449  143  523   65  140  34   2  19   77   27   79   2   2 
Jackson            2b  .281  .348  .383  106  295   56   83  20   2   2   29   27   67  15   7 
Sullivan*          lf  .290  .337  .399  140  566   89  164  31   5   7   60   34   79  13   9 
Barmes             ss  .284  .321  .420  131  490   73  139  29   1  12   64   23   69   8   8 
Clayton            ss  .259  .323  .384  134  432   57  112  22   1  10   51   38   81   5   3 
Gil                ss  .267  .299  .426   77  176   22   47  11   1   5   23    8   41   3   3 
Hocking#           2b  .257  .318  .371   96  245   28   63  17   1   3   26   21   47   1   2 
Greene             c   .228  .246  .433   54  171   20   39   9   1   8   26    2   38   0   0 

Name                  ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Huisman              3.67   6   3  48   0    49.0   51   20   3    9   33 
Fuentes*             4.06   4   3  67   0    71.0   57   32   5   39   85 
Lopez*               4.22   2   2  60   0    49.0   51   23   5   13   36 
Tam                  4.57   3   3  63   0    69.0   74   35   5   27   38 
Tsao                 4.59  11   9  27  26   149.0  147   76  22   50  140 
Gilfillan            4.76   4   3  49   0    70.0   69   37   6   34   49 
Nunez                4.81   4   6  64   2    86.0   88   46  12   30   64 
Jennings             4.83  11  12  31  31   177.0  184   95  20   71  130 
Cook                 4.89   8   9  39  24   160.0  182   87  14   56   74 
Kennedy*             4.92   9   9  31  28   170.0  189   93  24   47  109 
Young                4.99   8   8  29  25   146.0  150   81  18   64  115 
Reed                 5.02   3   4  67   0    61.0   66   34   7   23   39 
Chacon               5.36   8  10  26  26   146.0  152   87  21   69  117 
Neagle*              5.42   7   9  29  26   146.0  159   88  25   56  109 
Driskill             5.58   7   9  31  17   129.0  152   80  26   34   78 
Estes*               5.68   7  11  28  28   160.0  183  101  21   80   97 
Stark                5.74   6   9  30  24   138.0  157   88  22   61   85 
Bernero              5.77   6  10  40  20   145.0  165   93  26   58   96 
Vance*               5.91   7  10  31  27   163.0  186  107  25   79   97 
Tollberg             6.16   4   6  19  16    95.0  116   65  22   20   49 
Dohmann              6.24   5  10  37  18   124.0  141   86  29   51   99 
Elarton              6.41   5  11  29  28   153.0  183  109  33   65   95 
Fassero*             6.63   3   7  70   3    76.0   92   56  19   32   52 
Wendell              6.68   2   5  62   0    62.0   76   46  12   31   33 
Simpson              6.75   3   6  46   0    68.0   68   51  10   62   67 
White*               7.00   2   5  26   7    72.0   86   56  15   43   44 
Herrera*             8.30   1   4  42   0    64.0   75   59  17   56   51