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— BTF's Preseason Previews

Wednesday, March 05, 2003

San Diego Padres

2002 Recap

The Padres limped their way to a 66-96 record in their first season following the Tony Gwynn era, employing a record-tying 59 players in the process. The starting rotation was hurt early, as Kevin Jarvis and Brian Tollberg went down to season-ending injuries, while Bobby Jones was simply ineffective. And on offense, rookie Sean Burroughs battled a bum shoulder and ended up relinquishing his hold on third base to Phil Nevin, who saw his numbers plummet due to various injuries. Infielder D'Angelo Jimenez didn't work out as planned and the Padres didn't get to see enough of promising Ramon Vazquez at shortstop, opting instead to leave the eminently replaceable Deivi Cruz out there for 147 games.

But there was a silver lining. Injuries to the rotation opened the door for two youngsters with loads of potential, Jake Peavy and Oliver Perez and the bullpen was solid until Alan Embree and Steve Reed were traded down the stretch. But even those deals netted a couple of prospects who may be ready to contribute as early as this year. On offense, Ryan Klesko continued to produce and made great strides in hitting left-handers. The Padres received an unexpected surprise from veteran Ron Gant, who in a limited role had his best season in years. Mark Kotsay quietly had another terrific season and is on the verge of establishing himself as one of the better center fielders in the National League. And, most encouragingly, youngsters Burroughs and Vazquez finished 2002 strong, giving hope for better things to come.

Overall, it was difficult not to be disappointed with the Padres last year. Expectations were raised when the stathead community embraced Kevin Towers' squad as the Next Big Thing. Due to a variety of circumstances, not the least of which being the fact that the team just wasn't that great to begin with, it didn't happen. Now that many have leapt off the bandwagon and turned their focus to Boston and Toronto, the young Padres may surprise people this year. And even if they don't break .500, the young core will have gained experience, which will prove valuable when the Padres move into Petco Park in 2004. The short-term outlook is mixed, but the long-term forecast is still very good.

Off-Season Moves

Incoming

OF Brady Anderson, C Gary Bennett, IF Jose Flores, IF Dave Hansen, LHP Randy Keisler, IF Keith Lockhart, IF Mark Loretta, RHP Charles Nagy, LHP Jesse Orosco, C Michael Rivera, IF/OF Chris Sexton, OF Shane Victorino, RHP Jay Witasick, RHP Jaret Wright

Outgoing

IF Kevin Eberwein, RHP Jeremy Fikac, OF Ron Gant, LHP Mike Holtz, IF/OF Trenidad Hubbard, OF Eugene Kingsale, C Tom Lampkin, IF Julius Matos, RHP Brett Tomko

The Players

The Lineup

  1. Ramon Vazquez, SS. Vazquez came over from Seattle prior to the 2002 season in the Ben Davis trade and was promptly annointed the latest in a long line of alleged shortstops of the future. Unlike most of the others (such luminaries as Santiago Perez and Donaldo Mendez among them), Vazquez actually is a pretty good looking ballplayer. He's not flashy but he has very good hands and a quick release. At the plate, he works with what he's got. He works the count and puts the ball in play. Vazquez struggled mightily against southpaws as a rookie (.157/.181/.186), but with more exposure that may change. Probably the most encouraging thing about Vazquez (aside from the fact that Deivi Cruz is no longer an obstacle) is the improvement he showed as the season progressed. He hit .291/.359/.397 after the All-Star break, as opposed to .250/.323/.313 before it. Amazing what more regular playing time will do for a guy. Expect Vazquez to cement his status as the Padres' shortstop of the present with solid defensive play and output from the top of the order that will fall somewhere between his overall stats from last season and what he did in the second half.
  2. Mark Loretta, 2B. Welcome to San Diego, where this is the biggest acquisition among position players. A native Southern Californian, Loretta looks to bring some stability to one of the Padres' most confounding positions in 2002. Although he can play anywhere on the infield, Loretta will be turning double plays from the right side of the bag with the Padres. Defensively, the tired tag of "solid if not spectacular" applies here. The Padres may well have the most boring double-play combination in baseball this year, but they'll make the plays. Loretta's value, however, comes from his bat. He's posted an OBP of .350 or better in four of his five full big-league seasons. His job is to get on base and be in position to score when the big boppers step to the plate, and there's no reason to believe he won't do just that.
  3. Mark Kotsay, CF. Kotsay continued to assert himself as one of the up-and-coming centerfielders in baseball last year. This season finds him moving down in the lineup to do more clearing than setting of tables. Kotsay doesn't have classic longball power, but he is strong and has a disciplined approach at the plate. And he's slowly learning to drive the ball. Check out this progression:

    Yr  ISO
    98 .124
    99 .131
    00 .145
    01 .150
    02 .160
    
    Just now entering his prime, and with over 2500 big-league at-bats under his belt, Kotsay is poised to take the next step. It wouldn't be surprising to see him hit .300 this year or 20+ homers, or possibly both.
  4. Ryan Klesko, 1B. One of the more underappreciated hitters in the game, Klesko has really come into his own since joining the Padres. He arrived in San Diego as a one-dimensional slugger but has refined all aspects of his game. Defensively, Klesko's still a little rough around the edges, but he doesn't get paid to make spectacular plays. Klesko's forte is finding a pitch he likes and then hammering it. And he's no longer strictly a platoon player. Probably the biggest area of improvement for Klesko over the years has come against lefties:

    vs LHP
    Yr  AB   BA  OBP  SLG BB SO
    99  49 .102 .179 .163  3 16
    00 121 .256 .343 .380 16 27
    01 164 .256 .344 .409 20 35
    02 157 .287 .372 .490 20 32
    
    Klesko's numbers are depressed a bit because of Qualcomm (he's hit .281/.388/.494 ther since coming to the Padres, as opposed to .299/.388/.567 on the road) and he'll turn 33 just three months after Petco Park opens, so we may never see a truly monster season from him. But he'll continue to produce at a high level for the next few years.
  5. Phil Nevin, LF. Nevin's is a fascinating story. The Padres picked up the former #1 overall pick from the Angels prior to the 1999 season to serve as a backup catcher. He proceeded to claim the third base job that had long eluded him in Houston and points elsewhere, becoming in the process the Padres' MVP three years running. And yet, all has not been well. After the 2000 season he was traded to the Mets for outfielder Jeromy Burnitz, but that deal fell through because Burnitz wouldn't sign a contract extension with the Padres. Then, after moving to first base last year to accommodate Sean Burroughs, he returned to the hot corner when the touted rookie landed on the DL. Nevin promptly broke his arm, came back too soon, and never got in a groove. Following the season, he was again traded for an outfielder--Cincinnati's Ken Griffey, Jr. But this deal fell through because Nevin declined to waive his no-trade clause. Meantime, he was publicly balking at making the move to left field. Not good. Fortunately, sometime between then and the beginning of Spring Training, Nevin and the Padres managed to find common ground. Nevin moves to left field in 2003, where he'll battle the lights until Petco Park opens in 2004. For now, the Padres and their faithful can only hope that Nevin's body is healed and his mind is focused on the task at hand. If so, look for a big year out of the man once traded for Andy Sheets.
  6. Bubba Trammell, RF. Signed to an ill-advised contract extension following the 2001 season, Trammell struggled last year and saw some of his playing time go to the resurgent Ron Gant. Trammell found himself the subject of trade rumors and finished with his worst OPS ever (747). Entering 2003, Trammell is the starting right fielder, at least in name. But with Brian Buchanan looking for at-bats and Xavier Nady refining his skills at Triple-A, it's only a matter of time before Trammell returns to the role of fourth outfielder. Then he can concentrate on destroying lefties as he did last year (.305/.387/.534 vs LHP; .213/.308/.357 vs RHP), possibly for a playoff contender if the Padres can find any takers for his salary.
  7. Sean Burroughs, 3B. Not a lot went right during Burroughs' rookie campaign. The good news is, he's still very young (22), his shoulder has finally healed, and he did show signs of life toward the end of 2002. Write off last year as a false start. This season Burroughs will establish himself as the Padres' third baseman of the next decade or more. The power may not be there yet, but everything else will be. Burroughs will be part of a revamped left side of the infield, which should help the young Padre pitchers--especially sinkerballer Brian Lawrence. Offensively, he'll flirt with .300, draw some walks, hit some doubles, and approach double digits in homers. This isn't the year it all comes together for Burroughs; for that we'll have to wait a little longer. But this is the year it begins.
  8. Wiki Gonzalez/Gary Bennett/Michael Rivera, C. And here we have 2002's biggest black hole, back for another year of looking up at mediocrity. Wiki Gonzalez, given the starting job by virtue of the Ben Davis trade, showed up out of shape last season, got hurt, and basically didn't do much of anything. Veteran Tom Lampkin played his heart out, but giving a career backup catcher his biggest workload ever at age 38 isn't exactly a recipe for success. So this off-season, Kevin Towers went out and picked up a veteran (Gary Bennett) and a kid (Michael Rivera), in the hope that a little competition might light a fire under Gonzalez or, failing that, a new catcher might emerge. A good idea. Unfortunately, there is little cause for hope. Bennett has a reputation as a good handler of pitching staffs--kind of like Mike Matheny. But he also hits like Matheny. As for Rivera, he's shown power in the minors but his first taste of the big leagues didn't go so well (.227/.254/.326 in 132 AB). The guess here is that if Gonzalez isn't traded by Opening Day, he and Bennett will split catching duties, with Rivera starting at Portland. If Gonzalez is traded, then Bennett and Rivera will form a kind of defense/offense platoon. Nobody will get more than about 350 plate appearances. And nobody will hit much.

The Bench

The bench will effectively comprise the following players: A second catcher (Bennett if Gonzalez isn't traded, Rivera if he is traded); Dave Hansen; two of Jose Flores, Keith Lockhart, Chris Sexton; and one or two of Brian Buchanan, Shane Victorino, Brady Anderson. The most interesting guys on the bench are Hansen, who assumes the Sweeney/VanderWal/Magadan role of professional left-handed hitter, and Buchanan, who is very large and who can hit the ball a long way. Lockhart and Anderson are running on fumes at this point in their respective careers. Sadly, only one of Flores and Sexton is likely to stick with the big club. Victorino is a Rule V guy who can play center field but he doesn't hit much. There were plenty of opporunities to upgrade the bench this off-season, with the likes of Orlando Palmeiro and Chris Stynes available, but in the end, the most useful addition was Hansen. Even if he doesn't play much, his influence can only help the younger hitters. He can serve as a sort of assistant to hitting coach Dave Magadan and offer advice as needed.

The Rotation

  1. Brian Lawrence. Lawrence followed up his successful rookie campaign with a solid effort in 2002 and established himself as the ace of the Padres' young staff. Lawrence is efficient, averaging just 14.7 pitches per inning last year. Only Greg Maddux, Odalis Perez, and Curt Schilling were more efficient among National League starters. He also should benefit the most from the revamped Padre infield. Lawrence's groundball/flyball ratio of 2.51 last season was tops in the NL, and behind only Derek Lowe and Roy Halladay in the AL. There are guys in the organization with better arms than Lawrence, but there aren't too many with a better feel for pitching.
  2. Oliver Perez. Perez burst onto the scene at the ripe old age of 20. The native of Culiacan, Mexico, had logged just 23 innings above A-ball before being thrust into the Padre rotation. But once he arrived, Perez made quite a splash, striking out more than a batter per inning over 15 starts and drawing praise from the likes of Todd Helton and Larry Walker. There's a lot to like in Perez; however, there are some concerns, all of which are interrelated:

    • He is not a big kid. At 6'3", 160 lbs., there are questions about his ability to hold up over a full season.
    • He works from a variety of arm angles. Although this makes his pitches very difficult to pick up--especially for left-handed hitters--it also has the potential to make his delivery more difficult to maintain.
    • He is not efficient with his pitches, averaging 16.9 pitches per inning last year. This may lead to either his not getting deep into games or his being forced to throw too many pitches so that he can work deep into games.

    Perez has the talent to be a #2 or #3 starter in the big leagues. But the Padres need to be very careful with him. They need to monitor his workload closely and see if they can teach him to get hitters out earlier in the count. Because of his lack of experience in the upper minors and his raw approach, don't be surprised if Perez doesn't immediately live up to expectations. Long term, if he stays healthy and if he learns to refine his craft, he could be real good. But for now, despite his early success, Perez remains a work in progress.
  3. Adam Eaton. The big prize in the Andy Ashby deal a few years ago, Eaton was on his way to establishing himself as one of the better young right-handers in the National League when his career was sidetracked by elbow surgery. Eaton, who had some arm troubles as a member of the Phillies organization, came back last September and showed flashes of his former self. The velocity was back, with the command improving each time out. As with Perez, Eaton will need to be monitored closely. If the Padres are careful with him and keep an eye toward the future, he could be something special. For 2003, the keys for Eaton are to throw without pain and to gain consistency. We'll see how it plays out, but I have a very good feeling about this one.
  4. Jake Peavy. Like Perez, Peavy made the mid-season jump from Double-A last year. And although the results weren't as spectacular, he did just fine in his first crack at the big leagues. Peavy is more polished than Perez, and he's got more life on his fastball than Lawrence. He also has good instincts and is a terrific competitor. If I had to guess who will be the ace of the Padre staff in 2005, I'd go with Peavy. That's not a knock on the three guys currently in front of him; it's just that Peavy combines their best attributes into one package. Expect big things from Peavy, starting now.
  5. Kevin Jarvis/Francisco Cordova/Charles Nagy. The fifth spot in the rotation is a mess. Jarvis is returning from surgery, Cordova hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 2000 due to injuries, and Nagy hasn't been effective since Hanson inflicted "Mmmbop" on an unsuspecting world. The guess here is that this is a battle between Jarvis and Cordova, with the loser possibly working as a long man out of the pen. The other guess is that whoever wins the job is just holding it down until one of the kids is ready. Whatever the case, don't expect a lot of production out of this slot.

The Bullpen

  1. Trevor Hoffman. The heart and soul of the Padres, Hoffman will miss at least the first 2-3 months of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. Hoffman is 35 now and can't be expected to bounce back as quickly as he once did. But given his dedication and legendary training habits, don't count Hoffman out just yet. "Hell's Bells" may be playing again in Mission Valley before too long.
  2. Jay Witasick. Witasick was the Padres' big off-season acquisition on the pitching side. He begins his second tour of duty in San Diego as a probable key component of Bruce Bochy's bullpen-by-committee until Hoffman returns. Since becoming a full-time reliever, the hard-throwing right-hander has been downright nasty:

       IP   H ER HR BB  SO  ERA
    148.1 136 47 11 54 160 2.85
    
    I don't know about you, but I wouldn't have a problem giving a guy with those numbers a shot at closing some games.
  3. Jaret Wright. Wright is one of the serious wild cards in this year's bullpen. He comes to the Padres with a resume similar to Witasick's when he came to town the first time: a guy with a real good arm and not much else. In Wright's case, he has the added issue of having worked only 99 innings over the past three seasons due to injury. The good news is he's reportedly healthy and dialing his fastball into the high-90s. The bad news is he's had a horrible recent track record and he's only worked two games out of the bullpen in his six-year big-league career. Wright is confident he can make a contribution. He certainly has the stuff to succeed; whether he'll be able to harness it is anybody's guess. Without backing from any statistics whatsoever, I'm guardedly optimistic about Wright's chances.
  4. Kevin Walker. Yet another guy coming back from surgery, Walker showed signs of life in his return late last season. If healthy, he gives the Padres a power lefty out of the bullpen. Along with Kotsay and Eaton, Walker is one of my key guys to watch in 2003.
  5. Brandon Villafuerte. This Hawaiian native burst onto the scene after previous cups of coffee with the Tigers and the Rangers. Villafuerte isn't overpowering but he posted very respectable numbers both at Triple-A and with the big club last year. Hana ho!
  6. Jesse Orosco. He's 46 years old. He's been pitching in the big leagues since before two of the guys he'll be relieving were born. He's averaged just under 20 innings a year over the past four seasons. He's on a team that is rebuilding. His contract is guaranteed. If I had an explanation, it would go right here.
  7. Luther Hackman. Acquired from the Cardinals in an off-season trade involving Brett Tomko, Hackman is another guy with a live arm trying to figure out what to do with it. Kevin Towers seems to have a knack for pulling pitchers out of a hat, so I'll bite my tongue on this one. That said, I don't see it.
  8. Clay Condrey. Great story. Signed out of a tryout camp, Condrey is one of those guys who never throws the same pitch twice. He's short on stuff but long on desire and moxie. Condrey is in the mold of Brian Tollberg and Jeremy Fikac. All he does is pitch. Unfortunately, he's a good candidate to get caught in the numbers game. If it weren't for the bizarre signing of Orosco, Condrey would be a lock for the bullpen. As it is, he'll be fighting with Villafuerte and Hackman for a spot at the back end.

Down on the Farm

Guys who might contribute this year, in alphabetical order by position:

SP: Brad Baker, Mike Bynum, Eric Cyr, Ben Howard, Randy Keisler, Mark Phillips, Dennis Tankersley

The big-time prospects here are Phillips, Tankersley, Howard, and Bynum. Phillips has electric stuff for a lefty; if he can cut down on his walks, he's got as much upside as anyone in the organization. He'll start the season at Double-A. Tankersley, Howard, and Bynum all struggled in their debuts. Fortunately, the Padres have the luxury of not having to rush them. They'll all be at Triple-A. With his power arsenal, Howard may be better suited to short relief. Tankersley needs to regain the aggressiveness that got him to San Diego in the first place. Cyr appears to have fallen out of favor and may not have a future with the Padres. Baker came over in the Alan Embree trade and is intriguing but raw. Keisler is a former Yankee prospect who has battled injury problems. He'll provide depth at Triple-A and give the Padres another somewhat experienced short-term option should the need arise.

RP: Cliff Bartosh, Chris Oxspring

Bartosh is a lefty, Oxspring a righty. With as many arms as are competing for bullpen spots, neither is too likely to see action this year with the big club, but you never know.

IF: Tagg Bozied, Bernie Castro, Jake Gautreau, Khalil Greene, Alex Pelaez, Ben Risinger

Greene, Gautreau, and Bozied are the names to remember long-term. All will start the year at Double-A and could advance quickly. There has been some talk that Greene might arrive in San Diego after the All-Star break. Could it happen? Troy Glaus made a similar jump and struggled mightily in his first taste of the big leagues. Greene is a fine prospect, but he's no Glaus. He might be able to handle the jump, but what would be the point? Greene doesn't have any one outstanding skill but rather does everything reasonably well. He sometimes is knocked for his defense, but I don't see it. He's got kind of an odd body type for a shortstop, but he'll be given every opportunity to succeed at that position. Gautreau is another former first round pick. He moved from third base to second base last year, with mixed results. He's a bit rough on defense, but if he can be passable there, the Padres will have found themselves a potent bat at a tough position. Bozied is a masher who played third base in college but whose future is at first base or possibly a corner outfield spot. He'll go as far as his bat takes him. Castro is a second baseman who came over from the Yankees last year; he gets on base and runs like crazy. He'll be at Triple-A this year. Pelaez and Risinger are gritty kids who can play anywhere. Neither is a true prospect, but one or both could have a big-league career thanks to their willingness to do whatever it takes to get the job done.

OF: Jason Bay, Kory DeHaan, Vince Faison, Alex Fernandez, Ben Johnson, Xavier Nady

The prospects here are Nady, Faison, and Johnson. Nady needs at least a half-season at Triple-A to get his plate discipline back to where it was in the lower minors and to make further defensive refinements in the outfield. Health has been a big problem for Nady in the past. He rushed his return from Tommy John surgery last season and it showed. Nady still has tremendous offensive upside, but he's not that young; there's a good chance he'll see material time with the Padres after the All-Star break. Faison and Johnson are very athletic kids who are learning to turn their tools into skills. Both will be at Triple-A this year. Look for a September cup of coffee for one or both. Bay came over from the Mets in the Steve Reed deal. He's another with a broad base of skills who will spend the bulk of 2003 in the minors. Fernandez was part of the package that sent D'Angelo Jimenez to the White Sox; he has some tools but his approach at the plate leaves a lot to be desired. DeHaan isn't really much of a prospect but he's a solid defensive center fielder, a position at which the Padres are relatively thin. He could see some time with the big club but won't contribute much with the bat.

Management

Field

Bruce Bochy begins his ninth season as manager of the Padres with some new but familiar faces. Gone are Tim Flannery and Alan Trammell. Flannery has done a lot for the organization over the years, and he certainly wasn't to blame for all the club's recent struggles, but his judgment in sending runners home left a bit to be desired. Trammell departed to begin his managerial career back in Detroit. His presence will be missed.

Returning to the organization are Davey Lopes, Dave Magadan, and Wally Joyner. Also, former Royal manager Tony Muser has come onboard as Bochy's bench coach. In Lopes and Muser, Bochy has a couple of guys with big-league managing experience on his staff. Neither one did much as a manager, and I don't know a lot about Muser's prior record, but Lopes always seemed to be a pretty decent coach. At the very least, the Padres did a better job of running the bases under his watch. Magadan and Joyner are back to teach players at the major- and minor-league levels how to work the count and generally adopt a more disciplined approach to hitting.

As for Bochy himself, since the Padres won the pennant back in 1998, his club has finished in last or next to last in each of the past four seasons. His winning percentage over that period has been just .455. Bochy has been around for some of the franchise's highest highs (he was a backup catcher on the 1984 World Series team), but lately he hasn't had a lot of success. Granted, he hasn't had much to work with all the time, and last year's injuries didn't help, but with each passing year there is more grumbling among the faithful that maybe Bochy's time has come and gone.

The big question in my mind is not whether Bochy is a good manager, but whether he is the right manager for this youthful team. There are a lot of inexperienced kids on the club. Mistakes will be made. Arms need to be protected. Can Bochy be patient enough and mindful enough to help turn his prospects into players? Can he resist sitting Ramon Vazquez so that Deivi Cruz can play? Can he avoid overworking the likes of Adam Eaton and Oliver Perez?

Of course, Bochy has to care about winning now; that's the job of every manager at the big-league level. But he needs to be aware of where the Padres are in the development cycle and he needs to be willing to make some short-term sacrifices in the name of preparing his young guns for future battles. Bochy's record in developing young players is spotty; then again, that word could be used to describe many of those players. Now he's got some seriously talented prospects under his charge. Hopefully he will be able to help them reach their potential.

Front Office

The Padres lost a lot of staffers to the Red Sox when Theo Epstein took over in Boston. And there have been various concerns with owner John Moores and the revolving door that is the club's CEO position. But for the most part, Kevin Towers and his staff have done a solid job. They don't play the free-agent game, at least not in terms that most big-market clubs would recognize. But the past few amateur drafts have proven fruitful, and Towers does seem to have a knack for identifying and acquiring useful pitchers.

Are there things that the front office could do better? Sure. They could be more careful in doling out long-term deals (see Bubba Trammell). And they have a strange aversion to signing their second-round picks (only Nady has signed since 1998). But for the most part, this a reasonably forward-thinking organization that realizes it needs to take chances and to "think outside the box" in order to succeed. It may not be Oakland, or even Boston or Toronto, but there are some talented and innovative minds working for the Padres.

Outlook

The NL West is an extremely tough division. If all the young players step up to the next level and if Nevin can produce like he did two years ago, 90 wins and a playoff berth isn't out of the question. Not likely but not completely ridiculous either (see last year's Angels). If none of the kids develops and the Padres get hit with the injury bug again, they may struggle to duplicate their 66 wins of a year ago. I'll split the difference between the best-case and worst-case scenarios and say the Padres will finish at 78-84, fourth in the division (ahead of only the Rockies). Regardless, it should be an entertaining group to watch.

2003 ZiPS Projections - Click for info

PO Player       G  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB  SO SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG
C  Gonzalez    68 193 18  46  9  1  4  24 24  27  1  1 .238 .323 .358
1B Klesko     140 510 87 149 33  3 27  97 80  89 14  3 .292 .388 .527
2B Loretta     98 321 35  90 17  1  3  28 31  42  1  2 .280 .344 .368
3B Burroughs  116 403 55 108 24  2  9  35 36  47  3  2 .268 .328 .404
SS Vazquez    126 417 55 112 21  3  5  42 49  82  7  4 .269 .345 .369
LF Nevin      124 465 70 139 23  0 25  89 53 119  3  1 .299 .371 .510
CF Kotsay     140 512 75 149 27  5 14  59 53  72  4  1 .291 .358 .445
RF Trammell   128 401 54 101 17  2 17  65 47  73  2  2 .252 .330 .431
c  Bennett     91 286 26  68 16  1  5  26 24  49  1  2 .239 .297 .353
if Hansen      90 119 13  32  7  0  3  18 21  28  0  0 .269 .379 .403
if Flores      93 320 47  84 16  2  2  25 42  56  9  4 .263 .348 .344
if Lockhart   113 251 25  53 11  2  3  23 24  43  1  1 .211 .280 .307
of Buchanan    95 280 40  71 13  1 14  42 24  74  2  2 .254 .313 .457
of Victorino  126 477 69 116 19  3  4  28 41  52 30 14 .243 .303 .321

PO Player        W  L  ERA  G GS  IP   H ER HR BB  SO
SP Lawrence     10 10 3.52 34 29 197 195 77 15 48 139
SP Perez         9  9 3.74 29 27 171 141 71 15 92 186
SP Eaton         7  8 3.95 21 21 139 132 61 15 50 118
SP Peavy        12 11 3.37 29 29 171 147 64 15 61 172
SP Jarvis        6  9 4.84 26 25 145 159 78 27 38  98
RP Walker        4  4 3.91 49  0  46  40 20  4 25  44
RP Villafuerte   8  8 3.49 62  1  85  76 33  5 35  74
RP Orosco        0  1 5.09 35  0  23  24 13  4 10  19
RP Hackman       3  5 4.55 35 10  87  94 44  9 34  50
CL Witasick      5  4 3.58 45  9 103  91 41 10 40 102
CL Hoffman       3  2 2.81 63  0  64  53 20  5 17  69
Geoff Young Posted: March 05, 2003 at 12:00 AM | 7 comment(s)
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   1. Geoff Young Posted: March 04, 2003 at 09:37 PM (#609159)
One small correction. Burnitz was actually a member of the Brewers when he was traded for Nevin. Sorry for the mixup....
   2. Dan Walls Posted: March 04, 2003 at 09:37 PM (#609177)
Nicely done, Geoff. Probably the best job putting together a Padres preview that I have seen this year. A few comments: It is early but Roberto Kelly has looked pretty good so far as a possible outfield option, I think that Brady Anderson might soon follow the path of Homer Bush, and I don't mind the Orosco signing at all. Reliable left handed relief pitching is essential in the NL West, and the Padres haven't had it for awhile (Walker two years ago, Nunez sort of?). Overall I get the feeling that Kevin Towers was told to get the Padres above .500, so he signed a veteran loogy, a good pinch hitter (Hansen) and added some power arms to the pen (Witasick, Wright, Hackman). One last thing, the ZIPS projections have some interesting totals for ABs, Victorino has the third most for the team? I can't see that happening to a rule 5 defensive replacement.
   3. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 04, 2003 at 09:37 PM (#609178)
One thing worth remembers when looking at pitcher projections is that offense has dropped off considerably.

For last year's NL, looking at the 5 pitchers with the most starts for each team, almost half (37/80) had ERAs under 4.00. Based on San Diego's low park factors (generally in the 90-92 range), those pretty ERAs aren't as impressive; Eaton's 3.95 is actually a worse-than-league average projection with Perez about league-average and Lawrence not too far off.

I think Peavy has a pretty good shot at coming near that projection, too. He didn't do great overall in the run prevention department, but he had some nice stretches and a guy with Peavy's stuff who can shoot through the system and hold his own at 21 has a lot of potential.

   4. Geoff Young Posted: March 05, 2003 at 09:37 PM (#609195)
Thanks, all, for the comments.

MTC: Sorry, no poetry. I couldn't possibly top David's effort.

Dan Walls: Yeah, I forgot about Kelly. I kept thinking he would be this year's Pete Incaviglia and wrote him off in my mind. I can't believe they're actually thinking of giving Kelly a roster spot but I guess it beats Deivi Cruz.

DW: I haven't heard Ojeda's name mentioned in the mix, but for as thin as the organization is at the position, it wouldn't shock me to see him up at some point.

Finally, a quick word on the projections. On offense, Trammell and Gonzalez' lines look about spot-on to me. The other starters all seem about 20-30 OPS points below what I expect from them. But Dan's put a lot of work into ZiPS, whereas I kinda look at what they've done lately, look at what similar players did, and make up a number that seems reasonable. The playing time also appears to come up a tad short. I'd be pretty comfortable adding 50-150 at-bats to all the starters except Trammell.

Pitchers? I have no idea. I will go out on a limb and say that Hoffman won't pitch in 63 games. :-)
   5. Shredder Posted: March 05, 2003 at 09:38 PM (#609220)
Cyr won't be contributing this year. He was claimed off waivers by the Angels.
   6. Eli Hungerford: Cityboy Crypto-Elitist for hire Posted: March 06, 2003 at 09:38 PM (#609270)
Very impressive piece, Geoff. I hope your in the rotation when Primer gets around to previewing teams who won 75 games or more. Them'll be exciting times!
   7. Geoff Young Posted: March 08, 2003 at 09:39 PM (#609325)
Phil Nevin is now expected to miss the season after dislocating his shoulder diving for a ball: Nevin could miss season (SD Union-Tribune). Roberto Kelly, Brian Buchanan, and Xavier Nady are the most likely in-house candidates to replace him in left field.

Without running any numbers, I'd guess this knocks about four wins off my original prediction for the Pads this year. They may have trouble finishing ahead of the Rox now.
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