Looking Forward to 2008: Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals got a new ballpark in DC.  That’s about as good as the news is going to get for 2008.  They have a good youth movement going in some areas and are still struggling in other areas. 
There are a few additions to the 2008 team.  Former Mets Paul Lo Duca and Lastings Milledge have moved south.  Cristian Guzman will be playing shortstop after a couple of years out.  The Nationals manager, Manny Acta, also over from the Mets, likes to play the kids.  He wanted Milledge, so the trade went through.  Unfortunately playing the kids is going to involve some growing pains.  They do have a pretty good lineup and some talent in the rotation, and a pretty good bullpen.  But they are just spoilers this season, and they reveled in spoiling the Mets 2007 last year.

Here are the players:

Catcher – Paul Lo Duca, Johnny Estrada, Wil Nieves
The injuries have piled on Lo Duca already, but he’s 35, so I don’t expect him to be getting any better.  And Johnny Estrada was a Met for about a week.  This corps is going to hit like a corpse.  Lo Duca is aged, and his bat has…

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Looking Forward to 2008: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers were in first place in the NL West for the whole month of May last year.  They surged over the All-Star Break to gain a two-game lead, and when they beat the Rockies on July 26, they held a 1.5 game lead.  They didn’t need to worry about the trade deadline – they were in first, and should be able to hold on to a fight down the stretch.  The second place team, the Diamondbacks were playing way over their Pythags.  The Padres were hanging around, and the Rockies were 5.5 back, and nary a consideration.  Oops.

But this is the 50th anniversary (ed.) in Los Angeles, and it’s all going to be different.  Right?

The Dodgers were a solid team last year, but really needed someone who could hit home runs, and run the ball down in the outfield.  They went and signed Andruw Jones to a two-year contract.  Andruw had had a terrible season at the plate – well, home plate at least, so there was no doubt that, at his age, he would regress to his mean.  That could mean a 40-50 home run season and lots of RBIs. 
That is the most significant change to…

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Looking Forward to 2008: Philadelphia Phillies (redux)

By Kevin Padraic Donnelly:

Our original Phillies article was admittedly a little heavy on snark and light on analysis.  This is what happens when a couple of Braves fans pick up one of the competitors in the absence of a Phillie-obsessed contributor, I’m afraid.  But rather than let his team be slighted (even slightly), one of our regular commentors (and a big Phillie booster) volunteered to re-write the piece.  We’re more than happy (nay, even ecstatic at times) to have new contributors volunteer to write for the site.  My thanks to Kevin as well as the invaluable contirbutions of Guy Cope (aka Arva) and all of the other volunteers who contributed to this year’s Looking Forwards. —ed

Why 2008 is so important

The 2008 season will likely define the course of the Phillies franchise for years to come.  While the team may seem to be composed of several up and coming players, the core group of Chase Utley (29), Jimmy Rollins (29), Ryan Howard (28) and Pat Burrell (31) are all either at their peaks or on the way down.  And while they can hope for more extended playing time from Utley and Howard (132 and 144 starts, respectively, last year),…

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Looking Forwad to 2008: San Francisco Giants

Without Barry Bonds, the San Francisco Giants are finally free to make their own destiny.  No more trumped up media destiny.  No ESPN game breaks to view the team’s former leftfielder.  No more chemistry destroying recliner and special treatment.  No more federal indictments and perjury charges hanging like the sword of Damocles over the clubs head.  No more associates with BALCO.  No more reason to watch the worst team in Major League Baseball.

Bonds long shadow has been removed, and along with it any semblance of a competitive team.  And no matter what you may think of Bonds here at BBTF, the fans in San Francisco loved the slugger.  They cheered him at his worst and at his best.  He was very much their guy.  But now he’s gone, and that will almost certainly affect ticket sales for the Giants as well.  They won’t have a chase for the home run record to district them from the lousy product on the field.

And what a lousy product it is.  The man given an 8 year contract to be the teams ace, Barry Zito instead put up 196 innings of a 98 ERA+.  Ray Durham went from a top offensive second baseman…

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Looking Forward to 2008: Colorado Rockies

As thrilling as the 2007 season was for the Rockies and their fans, it was still in a sense unsatisfying, even though it was by far the most successful year in the team’s history. Most surprise winners give their fans an entire summer’s worth of fun, jockeying for the lead in an unexpected pennant race. Think of how exciting the summer of 2006 was in Detroit, or 1984 in Chicago.

But as late as the middle of September, the Rockies were still in fourth place in the NL West. They weren’t even getting listed in the daily paper’s Wild Card standings. Then came the famous hot streak, culminating in the exhilarating victory over the Padres in Game No. 163, the sweeps of the Phillies and Diamondbacks in the NL playoffs, and the franchise’s first-ever trip to the World Series. But really, the whole time that any of this even seemed possible lasted just over a month.

So the 2008 season opens with the Rockies bearing high expectations of fans who still haven’t seen their team spend a season in contention. The NL West is expected to be a tough division once again this year, but there’s no one there who stands…

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Looking Forward to 2008: Houston Astros

The Houston Astro’s have a good example of the owner that wants to win, but that desire slowly hurts his franchise.  Much like Peter Angelos of the Balitmore Orioles and the early 90s, late 80s George Steinbrenner, Astros owner Drayton McClain wants to win.  He wants to win more than anything else, and he’s willing to do anything to achieve that goal.  Consider the ease of which the Astros signed marquee talent like Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettite, and Carlos Lee (perceived that way, at any rate) to long term contracts.  When it came time to pony up an ungodly amount of money to bring in ace Roger Clemens, McClain did so, and was willing to bend over backwards to make the player comfortable.  Though that largesse hasn’t always paid off (Richard Hidalgo), and some players would test the market anyway (Carlos Beltran, Randy Johnson), it was a nice feature for the team to fall back on.  Add in McClain’s deserved reputation as a players’ owner, and you the kind of owner that can breed success.

It helps, however, for him to be coupled with a strong GM, one who can reign in his owner when…

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Looking Forward to 2008:  Milwaukee Brewers

Persistence and patience. I make minimal claims as to having many positive attributes, but if pressed I will state that I am both persistent and patient. The former has always been present. The latter has been learned thanks to life’s lessons.

I think it’s because of these traits that I identify with Brewers General Manager Doug Melvin or as noted BBTF contributor battlekow calls him, Moustache. Doug Melvin believes in having a plan. I am pretty sure Doug was who the writers of The Hunt For Red October had in mind when they wrote the line, “don’t take a dump without a plan”.

The Milwaukee Brewers of today are testimony to both the positive AND negative results that can be generated if an organization develops a plan, stays focused on the plan, stays committed to the plan and executes the plan. When Doug Melvin was hired the Brewers were a mess. The team had just endured its worst season in franchise history, and one of the offensive cornerstones was the immortal Jose Hernandez. Doug quickly recognized that change was needed.

Primary in that change was focusing exclusively on acquiring young players. While sending most of the front office packing, Melvin retained…

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Looking Forward to 2008:  New York Yankees

Even though the Yankee front office has been preaching player development and patience, we here at BTF and Count the Rings™ can’t develop out own talent for anything … so what do we do come preview time? We assemble a bunch of all-stars from elsewhere in the blogosphere. That’s just how we roll.

We did this the last two years under the premise that no team is more projected and examined than the Yankees, so why not get some completely subjective opinions on the team. If you want objective analysis, got to the old Replacement Level Yankee Weblog and look at SG’s stuff. It’s just wonderful.

As for this preview, let’s look at who’s joining me today:

Andrew Fletcher of the tastefully named Scott Proctor’s Arm; SG of the aforementioned RLYW; the Yankee blogosphere’s resident curmudgeon, Steve Lombardi of the prolific WasWatching.com; and all three – by accident – of the authors of River Ave. Blues: Benjamin Kabak answering on his own and Joseph Pawlikowski and Michael Axisa splitting their work.

So be nice to the panel, and feel free to call us fanboys, homers, haters, or whatever, just don’t call us late to first pitch. And without further ado, here’s…

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Looking Forward to 2008: New York Mets

No team in MLB is looking forward to 2008 as much as the New York Mets are.  Perhaps the 1964 Phillies looked as forward to the 1965 season.  The Phillies at least had the consolation that there was no Wild Card to simultaneously choke their way out of.  The Mets had gone into 2007 after a rough playoff loss to the St. Louis Cardinals in a seven-game NLCS featuring late inning heroics from So Taguchi and Yadier Molina.  The Mets then acquired the best pitcher in baseball, Johan Santana, from the Minnesota Twins for a minimal package.  So the Mets, and their fans, are really looking forward to 2008.

But it isn’t all good times.

Just five days before my birthday, I got an early birthday present: the Mets acquired P Johan Santana from the Minnesota Twins for OF Carlos Gomez, P Phil Humber, P Deolis Guerra, and P Kevin Mulvey.
It wasn’t the worst package that could be thought of – Gomez and Humber are certainly pretty good prospects.  Nonetheless, taking the Mets team that has won 165 games the last two seasons and replacing a 40-year old *done* Tom Glavine with Johan Santana makes the Mets the team to…

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Looking Forward to 2008:  Arizona Diamondbacks

Jim McLennan of the AZSnakePit.Com recently quoted the opening lines from “A Tale of Two Cities” to sum up his feelings on the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks:

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way.”

The 2007 Dbacks underachieved and overachieved at the same time: their hitters were worse than expected, their pitching was better than hoped for; their run differential was atrocious, their win total was excellent. They looked like the clutchest clutch gods who ever clutched and the suckiest sucks who ever sucked—sometimes in the same game.

Much has been written about the 2007 Dbacks, trying to understand what happened and why it happened; bullpen usage was dissected, pinch hit power was examined, Melvin’s managerial super-powers were proffered—and in the end, it was…

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Looking Forward to 2008:  Pittsburgh Pirates

During that fifteen year period, the Pirates always had some consistency.  They would almost certainly have a marquee offensive player, be it Jason Kendall, Brian Giles, or Jason Bay.  They always had a promising young arm fronting the rotation, whether it was Denny Neagle, Francisco Cordova, Kris Benson, Kip Wells, or currently, Ian Snell.  None of these things mattered, either, as they’d watch top draft pick after top draft pick, names like Sean Burnett, John Van Benschoten, Byran Bullington, Chad Hermansen, and Kris Benson flame out due to injury, ineffectiveness, or sheer mis-draft.  All this lead to an inability to find a compliment to those marquee players, and doomed the team.

Of course, the organizations inability to consistently benefit from big trades hurt as well.  Though management did well on some minor deals, extracting Kip Wells and Josh Fogg from the White Sox for Tod Ritchie, then nabbing those other Sox second baseman of the future Freddy Sanchez for Jeff Suppan, nothing they did could put them over the top.  Even brining In Jason Bay, Jack Wilson, and Adam LaRoche underscored how awful the Pirates were at actually developing they’re own talent.  A large sign hung over the Pirates, one that…

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Looking Forward to 2008:  Seattle Mariners

Predicting the future is exceedingly difficult.  We all know that.  One of our favorite pastimes as a society is to look at old predictions and laugh at how wrong they were.  Sure, we should all be driving around in hydrogen-powered flying cars right now, but our past prognosticators didn’t count on the political power of Detroit auto manufacturers, did they?  And every baseball writer has lambasted the potential of some team, only to get the ol’ pipe-bomb-in-the-mailbox treatment when that team somehow wins the World Series.

Popular culture of the past is riddled with inaccurate versions of the future.  George Orwell envisioned a 1984 in which war-mongering superpowers and run-amok governments of the once-free world crushed dissent by any means necessary, and treated as criminals those who didn’t think in perfect lockstep with the dictatorial regime that supervised their every move.  In actuality, of course, that didn’t happen until almost twenty years later.  Van Halen envisioned a 1984 in which an extremely attractive schoolteacher miraculously decided to fulfill the wildest fantasies of an adolescent boy.  Again, that didn’t actually happen until almost twenty years later.  And the movie “2001: A Space Odyssey” depicted a 2001 in which--well, I haven’t seen it,…

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Looking Forward to 2008:  Philadelphia Phillies

...and Alan Honeycutt

Witty Introduction:

Sam:  So....  The Phillies.  What say we about the Phillies?

Alan:  They were in the playoffs last year. 

Sam:  No one cares.

Alan:  Really?  They drew X million fans last year.

Sam:  If anyone cared, we wouldn’t be writing this.  They clearly have no fans.

Alan:  I think you confuse “an interested fan-base” with “BTF contributors with the bandwidth to write a preview.”

Sam:  I don’t know any Phillie fans.  Therefore they’re aren’t any.  QED. 

Alan:  I don’t think it works that way.

Sam:  Except Sean Forman.  Who is a god-man to whom we all owe fealty, and a Phillie fan.  That’s the only reason I’m contributing here.  So Sean doesn’t kill me with his god-like wrath.

Alan:  Maybe we should talk about, you know, the team.

Sam:  Oh, and Brett from work.  He’s apparently a Phillie fan.  I like Brett.  We discussed Baudrillard during training.  You don’t get that very often in the States.  Todd is from Philly too, but he’s a Red Sox fan for some reason.  Todd makes no sense sometimes.

Alan:  Sean would want us to talk about the actual players.

Sam:  What’s the point?  We could just email Sean and Brett,…

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Looking Forward to 2008:  Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Los Angeles Overview of Anaheim, 2008 Edition

2007 was about as gimme a season as the Angels could expect. They grabbed a share of first place on April 25 and stayed there the rest of the season. Coming into 2008, with Texas and Oakland rebuilding and Seattle offering the only challenge, the defending American League West Champions were the odds-on favorite to take the division for a third straight year. All they had to do was survive Spring Training. In case you’re looking to scroll down and see what happens, they didn’t.

Looking Backward

2007 sounds easier than it actually was. The Angels survived despite losing Juan Rivera, who shattered his leg playing winter ball, before the season started (moral of story: don’t break leg). Garrett Anderson lost half his season due to a hip flexor and nagging hurts to his back and left hamstring. Bartolo Colon was a Kazaam-sized disaster. Chone Figgins broke a finger and lost a month. Howie Kendrick broke two fingers and lost two months. Bullpen rock Scot Shields suddenly turned into a late-season pumpkin. Mike Napoli lost near 50 games due to hamstring and ankle issues. No sweat. The trademark depth and that powered the team…

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Looking Forward to 2008:  Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins ended their 6 year run of winning seasons in 2007, dropping 17 wins to a 79-83 record.  During the previous five years, the Twins had been one of the model franchises in baseball, winning 520 games with an average payroll less than $60 million a year.  Almost all the team’s key contributors came from one of the games strongest farm systems, and oh, what a farm system it was.  It produced several MVP Candidates , including four who played a key role for the team in Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau (who won it), Torii Hunter, and Corey Koskie (check out his 2003 season, all that and gold glove defense), and one who would win two World Series in Boston (doh!).  It produced a multitude of good pitchers, including long time vet Brad Radke, Kyle Lohse, and a number of top notch relievers.  GM Terry Ryan also had a knack for finding free talent during the early days, snagging Johan Santana in the Rule 5 draft, grabbing David Ortiz for the remains of Dave Hollins, and Jason Bartlett for the never used Brian Buchannan, and seeming to never make a mistake when trading a veteran for prospects.

Much as…

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Looking Forward to 2008:  San Diego Padres

What do we know about the Padres? Thanks to the assertions of experts who apparently believe that their beliefs bear some resemblance to reality, we know a few things:

• They have great pitching


• They cannot hit


• Their closer is washed up


• Their farm system is a mess

What’s interesting is that when enough people repeat these tales, they become embedded in our collective consciousness and we find ourselves nodding in agreement.

Then some jerk comes along and presents actual data. In a blinding flash, what we know no longer makes sense. Some people will blame the jerk for disrupting their blissful slumber, while others will continue to make their original assertions, perhaps a bit more loudly in the belief that an argument’s validity is solely dependent on the force with which it is delivered.

Then there will be a few who survive the initial jolt and realize that the truth doesn’t hurt as much as they thought it would. It’s less like a punch to the gut and more like jumping into a cool stream. Once they start swimming around in it, they’ll discover it’s not so bad and some may actually come to enjoy the experience.

I’m assuming that if…

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Looking Forward to 2008:  Toronto Blue Jays

Many of the Zips projections will seem pessimistic to Jays fans. Assuming normal luck with injuries Zips sees the Jays scoring somewhere around 770 runs. That’s not going to be enough.

However it’s worth noting that the projections in the Bill James Handbook see the same guys producing about 90 more runs (a remarkable difference considering that both systems tend to be conservative) and that should be enough to keep the team in contention – though I’d expect them to fall just short even so.
I’d expect about 90 wins this year. And I see a disaster as being more likely than making the playoffs. The team can handle almost any given injury better than most, but isn’t well placed to deal with several injuries at once.

Worth noting: Last year no team in the AL had the platoon advantage less frequently than the Jays. I don’t see that as likely to change this year. The team construction isn’t substantially different from last year. In an odd sort of way I approve though. It’s sort of the flip side of not carrying any lefty one out specialists. By using so many good right-handed hitters you kind of challenge the way the…

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Looking Forward to 2008: Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds are an organization that has been on the cusp of contention the past two years, never quite making it over the top.  In 2006, after 5 years of futility under Dan O’Brien and Trader Jim Bowden, the Reds hired former Twins assistant GM Wayne Krivsky to take over the struggling franchise.  Coming in with a strong scouting background from a successful team known for its player development, Krivsky brought a wave of optimism from Minnesota. 

The optimism looked warranted at the beginning of the season.  The division was weak, and the Reds stayed in contention the whole way.  The first major move of Krivsky’s tenure was a resounding success, dealing from depth by sending talented but inconsistent outfielder Wily Mo Pena to the Boston Red Sox for middle of the rotation starter Bronson Arroyo.  Arroyo responded with his best season, putting up a 142 ERA+ over 240 innings, all while pitching in the Great American Bandbox.

Krivsky’s next move was to steal talented but inconsistent middle infielder Brandon Phillips from the Cleveland Indians.  Phillips responded well to a full time job, slugging 17 homers and putting up an impressive triple slash line .276/.324/.427 that belied his 88 OPS+…

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Looking Forward to 2008:  Atlanta Braves

by Sam Hutcheson and Alan Honeycutt

Alan: It was a relatively quiet and predictable offseason, don’tcha think?  Andruw’s exit via free agency was obvious before the start of last season (insert joke here about him leaving a year early). I think we all suspected that the siren song of Tom Glavine, free agent, was going to prove irresistible for a team that had just suffered through 56 starts by Buddy Carlyle, Kyle Davies, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Lance Cormier (when the best of your 4th and 5th starters has an ERA over 5.20* and Tom Glavine walks into your office, it doesn’t take long before you’re jumping on him like he’s wearing TAG body spray).  The only major move with any hint of surprise was the Renteria trade.

*Yes, I’m ignoring the fact that some guy named Jeff Bennett actually had two useful starts last year in September because they were erased from my memory before the end of the month.

Sam: Yep.  This ain’t brain science or rocket surgery.  Everyone knows what went wrong last year, right?  The Atlanta Braves didn’t win the division for two very simple reasons.  First, Mike Hampton got hurt again.  Second, Andruw Jones sucked.  If either…

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Looking Forward to 2008: Tampa Bay Rays

Why the Rays are Better than The Yankees...right now
(in certain important facets of the game)

Those of us who recall the dying days of the Soviet Union - perestroika, the shockingly successful Lithuanian independence movement, the ecstatic rupture of the Berlin Wall - know the surprising satisfaction of an Evil Empire’s fall. (Those too young to remember the Soviet chill and the pointless atomic bomb drills in junior high school can consider the sudden downfall of Emperor Palpatine and his Galactic Empire.) Certainly, in the immediately previous years few predict its demise. Reagan’s Berlin plea to “tear down this wall” was widely panned by liberal publications, especially in skittish Europe, and the destruction of the rebel base on the ice planet Hoth looked like a death knell for rebel resistance against the Galactic Empire. Baseball's New York empire poached Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, and other superstars from rivals, which, a the time, seemed ominous signs of the Yankees’ limitless funds and continued dominance.

Today, the Yankees are wounded (Pettitte, Matsui) and staggering (Mussina, Giambi) and have the misfortune of playing in what is still baseball’s most difficult division. To be sure, the Yankees’ talent prompts some…

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Looking Forward to 2008: Boston Red Sox

My dad did not make it through another baseball season. He was barely coherent enough to sense that another Opening Day had arrived, and the ancient, reflexive brain stem which had kept him alive through an accelerating flurry of health issues fired one more salvo—rekindling, however briefly, his roiling hatred of the New York Yankees that had sustained him for more than six decades.

The last day he was conscious—June 15th—I showed him the sports page. His fingers flickered over the standings and he made out that the Red Sox were running away with things in the AL East. He smiled.

Only a few moments later, he lapsed into a coma.

The Red Sox kept things together well enough after a very fast start, coasted into the playoffs, and found their second wind, bringing off a virtual replica of their 2004 post-season.

Much of this was accomplished by an approach that might be the one distinguishing “old” sabermetrics from “new” sabermetrics—assuming, of course, that there’s any way to know if such a distinction, in fact, actually exists.

Whatever the case, the Red Sox shaved off nearly 170 runs from their opponents in 2007, much of that difference occurring in two key…

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Looking Forward to 2008 - St. Louis Cardinals

Where to start? Well, first, let's everyone take a nice, deep breath. It is extremely unlikely, although possible I suppose, that the Cardinals will only win 70 games and finish last. Last year, they finished right about .500. They have lost three of their veteran core players (Eckstein, Edmonds, and Rolen), but all three were hurt last year, and none of them played really up to par when they were in the lineup, and none of them pitches. The team has replaced Rolen with Troy Glaus, which should involve little loss from last year's playing level, and they have a good plan to replace Edmonds. Shortstop and leadoff man aren't really covered yet, but David Eckstein wasn't all that great at either job last year. So no, I don't see any disasters here.

That's not to say that there are no problems. The next four paragraphs are the end of my 2007 Final Update last October:

"I wrote the above yesterday, and let it sit on my computer until today so I could proofread and clarity check with fresh eyes. So guess what happened? Right. Walt Jocketty got fired. The Cardinals are calling it a voluntary parting of the ways, but…

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Looking Forward to 2008 - Detroit Tigers

GOING FOR BROKE

2007 In Review After a spectacular rise in 2006, the 2007 Detroit Tigers were competitive right out of the gate. They held on to first place from late July to early August and looked very good with the league’s second best offense. They actually were a ½ game up as late as August 14 when the long collapse occurred. The club tumbled to a11-20 record down the stretch. This dropped the team to disappointing 88 wins, 8 games behind the Cleveland Indians and 6 games behind the Yankees for the Wild Card.

What Went Right • Curtis Granderson had a breakout year. • Magglio Ordonez had career year offensively. • The offense overall - incredible performances of Tiger stars (Granderson, Polanco, Ordonez, Sheffield and Guillen) led the team offensively – good for second in the league in runs scored, despite the dead weight of Monroe, Casey and Inge.

What Went Wrong • IRod continued his offensive decline. • The club couldn’t find a productive hitter at first base (again), while recent cast-offs Carlos Pena and Dmitri Young had career years. • Brandon Inge had an off-year at the plate. • Pitching: Neither Verlander or Bonderman took the next…

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Looking Forward to 2008: Cleveland Indians

If this year’s version of the Cleveland Indians looks familiar, that’s because it is.  As the rest of the contenders in the American League Central completely overhauled their rosters, Mark Shapiro was content to add a utilityman here and a relief pitcher there while keeping the core of the team intact.  It’s a strong core; the Tribe boasts the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner (C.C. Sabathia), a second starting pitcher (Fausto Carmona) that was every bit as good as Sabathia in 2007, one of the best center fielders in baseball (Grady Sizemore), and a catcher (Victor Martinez) who puts up .300/.375/.475 seasons like clockwork.  Indeed, that core of players took the 2007 Cleveland Indians to the brink of the World Series.

The optimist will look at this team and point out that it won 96 games and a division title last season while getting no contribution whatsoever from second base (.639 OPS), left field (.719 OPS), and right field (.760 OPS).  The optimist will also point out that the 2007 Indians tied for the best record in baseball despite getting nearly 30 starts from Cliff Lee and Jeremy Sowers with a combined ERA of 6.34.  If and when these…

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Looking Forward to 2007 - Atlanta Braves

Many thanks go to Alan Honeycutt, one of the usenet mafia, for contributing his assistance in this preview. And more thanks go to Sam (and Chris for the last one), for updating their previews while I was unable to get into the Control Panel to post them. -DS

As you're probably aware, in 2006 the Braves failed to win their division for the first time in, like, 4-EVAH.  The recap, as haiku:

    In time, all leaves fall.

    Jorge Sosa:  Antichrist.

    Autumn winds in June.

What went wrong:  Jorge Sosa.  June.

What went right:  Adam LaRoche.  Brian McCann.

What shimmering hint of Summer's Country did glint the hearts of men:  John Smoltz eluding his shadow once more.

What is to come, as heroic couplet:

   The Gods of Old, arisen new again

   Reitsma, Remmy banished from the pen

   O'er lands where evil hence all hope waylaid

   Men of skill once more shall ply their trade.

Okay, so the iambs are a little jiggered.  Squint and look askance.  It's a baseball site for God's sake.

What we fear:  Mark Redman.  Edgar Renteria's "range."

What we're looking forward to:  Kelly Johnson.  Brian McCann.

The darkness that doth shutter the hearts of men: Gorgorath, Devourer of…

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Looking Forward to 2007 - New York Mets

The 2007 New York Mets Preview

The 2006 New York Mets were everything, well, almost everything, a fan wants out of a season. And after not making the playoffs for six seasons, it was welcome. Moreover, the Mets ended the Braves run of division titles, beating them soundly –not squeaking out by one or two games, but leaving the Braves at eighteen games behind and below 0.500. The Phillies were the closest challengers, but weren’t really challengers at all after about mid-August. Once September rolled around, the only question was whether or not the Mets could clinch the division earlier than the 1986 team.

Even with the best record in baseball, the Mets’ season wasn’t a product of outrageous performances. Carlos Beltran rebounded from his worst season ever to have his best season ever, but his performance was in line with his projected growth curve. The starting pitching was, um, not good. Tom Glavine was a bright spot and John Maine pitched well, but Pedro Martinez, after a strong start, really went downhill fast. The bullpen was superb, but Billy Wagner had one of his “down” seasons despite being very good. It’s hard to tell if pitching coach Rick Peterson can…

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Looking Forward to 2007 - Anaheim/Los Angeles Angels

In 2006: An offense that couldn’t find its legs for the entire first half of the season stoned what would have been the Angels’ third straight division title. Injuries to key contributors (Bartolo Colon, Dallas McPherson, Casey Kotchman) coupled with the perfect health of some non-contributors (Jeff Weaver, Esteban Yan, J.C. Romero, Kevin Gregg) were a big problem, and forced the Angels to go headlong into a youth movement which included three rookies in the everyday lineup and two in the starting rotation.

That said, team won 89 games and finished just four out of the division lead. Let’s look at the particulars.

In 2006: The offense putt-putted to a .728 OPS and the second fewest runs in the AL before the All-Star break last year, and Angels would have fallen clean out of the race early but for a stellar effort by the starting rotation. The feat is particularly impressive since the team had to go without rotation anchor Bartolo Colon, but did have to go with rotation albatross Jeff Weaver (3-10, 6.29 ERA in 88.6 innings) until he was finally loosened upon St. Louis. The remaining young group of starters turned in the third best starter ERA in the…

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Looking Forward to 2007 - Oakland A’s

Or, Mendacious Meditations on Moneyball

Don Malcolm
Special to BTF

CARDS ON THE TABLE

By all means, let’s go ahead and call it mendacious.

For this how it will be viewed—if for no other reason than the fact that the language employed will be, er, strong.

And because, as is so often the case when yours truly is involved, a team preview is being hijacked for another purpose.

THE SEVEN-YEAR ITCH

And here you thought all I had was film noir on the brain. (Actually, I’m still red-blooded enough of a male to recognize—and semi-cerebral enough to admit—that Marilyn Monroe is not something that I contemplate with my brain. And, yes, that’s “something,” not “someone.” Icons are icons.)

And for many of you, the Oakland A’s and Billy Beane are icons—in a way that is strangely similar to the phenomenon afflicting young men when they are shown images of exceptionally attractive, scantily-clad (or, in these Renaissance days of internet porn, totally unclad and “in the thrall of it all”) young women.

The A’s became the “porn stars” of baseball, neo-sabermetric division, largely through the efforts of Michael Lewis. His send-up of the A’s in Moneyball created as many myths as it…

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Looking Forward to 2007 - Detroit Tigers

The 2006 Tigers
The Detroit Tigers were the surprise team of 2006.  Going into the season, a .500 record would have been considered a success after winning 71 games in 2005 and 72 in 2004.  Instead, the Tigers raced out to an early lead before flattening out in late summer, then stumbling at the finish by losing their last five games.  Their poor finish gave the Twins the division title.  The late season struggle was forgotten soon after the Tigers beat the favored Yankees and A’s to win the AL Pennant for the first time since 1984.  They set the second highest attendance for the franchise (the ’84 Tigers hold the record of 2.7 million.) Justin Verlander won the Rookie of the Year award by winning 17 games with a 3.61 ERA.  Leyland took home his third manager of the year award. 

Mistakes Were Made

From my 2006 Looking Forward article.

Here’s the challenge. In 2005, Detroit got punked by Chicago and Cleveland – going 11-26 against the two. They went 8-11 against Minnesota and 10-9 v. KC. Unfortunately for the Tigers they play a lot of games against teams that are just plain better than they are. Yes, Chicago and…

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Looking Forward to 2007 - Los Angeles Dodgers

“Luck is the residue of someone else’s doo-doo.”

Don Malcolm
Special to BTF

“UNFATHOMABLE WISDOM IN IGNORANCE”

The above phrase would make an awfully good epitaph for Dodgers GM Ned Colletti (and let’s face it, Ned, sooner or later we’re all gonna need one).

In the attack-dog world of neo-sabermetrics (imagine an entire gaggle of 30-somethings still daubing on acne medication while simultaneously shouting at the top of their lungs…), he is the latest anti-Christ, lambasted in overwrought (and lamentably oversyndicated) blogs as “a walking pocket of pus”—in short, yet another Enemy of the State (or People, or whatever side you think you’re on).

What is worse, of course, is that his retrograde policies, as applied to a franchise that was bleeding more than “Dodger blue” after a tumultuous 2005 season, coincided with the team rebounding into the post-season in 2006.

And worst of all, there are all those pre-season polls and projections trumpeting the Dodgers—retooled for 2007 with nothing but questionable acquisitions (old players, mediocre players, pitchers with recent injury histories, etc.)—as odds-on favorites to be the NL representative in the World Series.

Why, it’s enough to make a neo-sabe choke on his rubber nipple.

Colletti clearly does not care…

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