Breaking Down the First Round

The following reviews are based on the MLB Scouting Bureau video provided by MLB.com. Please note that most of these reviews are almost entirely based on the players’ swing or pitching mechanics. I will finish by providing my draft order based on these reviews. I will provide a letter grade to each pick which will follow somewhat of a bell curve-like grading system. Please also note that the players are graded only within the 1st round. IOW, I will assign the grades compared to the others in the “same class.”

#1 - Kansas City Royals - P Luke Hochevar

Excellent arm action. Clean, yet explosive mechanics. I like guys that REALLY go after it. In other words, I like pitchers who try to throw the crap out of the ball. However, if you can throw this “easy” and still get 96-97, that’s a good thing. His mechanics are more linear than I like pitchers to be, but I think he’s a good bet to keep his velocity throughout his career. Good pick. 

Grade: A-

Hochevar currently remains unsigned.

#2 - Colorado Rockies - P Greg Reynolds

Good arm action. Throws to a good, firm front side which helps reduce shoulder injury risk. Really extends out front well at release. High arm slot. Would like to see him increase his tempo a bit. A #2 overall pick he is not, but a good, solid pick. I’m higher on him now than when I initially saw his video. I’d definitely try to draft him, but just not this high.

Grade: B+

Reynolds received a $3.25 million signing bonus from the Rockies and has a 5.63 ERA in 2 starts with single-A Modesto.

#3 - Tampa Bay Devil Rays - 3B Evan Longoria

His video doesn’t really show his swing very well. That said, you can tell this guy is a “baseball player” by his movements on the field and at bat. Quick swing, good balance. You can tell he’s got a clue about plate discipline by the way he takes pitches. Don’t think he’ll be a 40 HR-type of guy, but he doesn’t have to hit for that much power to be successful. I hate to throw out the term “polished” too much, mostly because this is the first time I’ve seen him on video. However, again, he looks like he has a clue.

Grade: A-

Longoria signed quickly after the draft and is hitting 345/433/691 for the Visalia Oaks since his promotion from Hudson Valley.

#4 - Pittsburgh Pirates - P Brad Lincoln

Outstanding arm action, best yet. Good intent (tries to throw hard) with a very quick torso rotation. Great tempo. Notice how he speeds his body up from the top of his knee lift to foot plant. This increase in momentum helps speed up his hips/torso. If you need an example of a guy who does this really well, watch Roy Oswalt. Uses his lower body REALLY well.  Stays closed well until he absolutely explodes late. Outstanding pick at #4. Good chance he’ll be better than Reynolds and Hochevar.

Grade: A

Lincoln pitched in 2 games in the Gulf Coast League and is expected to start for Hickory on Wednesday.

#5 - Seattle Mariners - P Brandon Morrow

Morrow has great tempo and unbelievable separation between his upper and lower body. Great intent to throw. He really goes after it. Excellent A+ arm action to complement how well he uses his body. Doesn’t throw to as firm a front side as I’d like him to, so his injury risk is higher. Best pick, best player so far in the draft. Of mild concern is how his glove shoots back after release. Clemens does this, and it’s turned out well for him I think. Hope for no screaming comebackers. An athlete who pitches is the best description I can come up with.

Grade: A+

Morrow signed immediately after the draft and was assigned to the Arizona Instructional League.

#6 - Detroit Tigers - P Andrew Miller

Stiff, stiff, stiff. OK, so it looks like he has good movement on his pitches, and he’s tall and lefthanded. Takes the ball out of the glove too early for my liking.  Leads with his front shoulder, which I don’t like. Just glides into foot plant. Just doesn’t use his body well to throw. No oomph with his body/legs. Again, he’s tall and a lefty, but I don’t understand the mega-hype. I’ve watched his video a number of times and I still don’t get it. I just don’t see him keeping his velocity throughout his career, as his shoulder just takes a beating. I hope I’m wrong because I’d love to have a Bonderman/Verlander/Zumaya/Miller/Robertson rotation myself in a few years.

Grade: B

Miller is currently unsigned.

#7 - Los Angeles Dodgers - P Clayton Kershaw

Ok, he has a very minimal arm action hitch, but nothing that would concern me. Actually, it might help him hide the ball better and be later with his arm, which I like. I would tell him to just let the follow through happen. It seems like his coaches are telling to stay down through it. I’d tell him to throw the crap out of the ball instead and just fall wherever your body tells you to fall. My first impression, he reminds me of John Rocker in how he hunches a bit when reaching with his front leg and with his short arm action, which I certainly like. Could increase his tempo a bit to make him even more explosive. I know high school pitchers are riskier, but I’d take him over Miller in a heartbeat.

Grade: B+

Kershaw has pitched in 3 Gulf Coast League games, striking out 12 batters in 7 innings.

#8 - Cincinnati Reds - CF Drew Stubbs

Crap swing. I reviewed his video more closely and discovered that his hands and his torso disconnect severely. In other words, his torso/hips/legs don’t really help him much in getting the bat moving towards the ball. When so much of the review is based on swing mechanics, it is easy to overlook the other parts of his game. OK, he looks like he’s a good athlete, so there’s hope. That said, I don’t like this pick here, not this high.

Grade: C-

Stubbs is hitting 247/374/370 in 92 plate appearances for the Billings Mustangs.

#9 - Baltimore Orioles - 3B William Rowell

His video doesn’t really show much. It looks like he has a powerful swing but it’s really hard to tell at full speed if he connects his trunk to his arms.  Can’t tell.

Grade: Incomplete

Rowell received a $2.1 million signing bonus from the Orioles and was assigned to Bluefield.

#10 - San Francisco Giants - P Tim Lincecum

Really goes after it. Check out how his front leg, just before landing, seems to step over an imaginary object and then land? This helps the hips turn faster. He couples it with a late hand break and a very quick arm. At 10, he’s a steal. THIS is how you use your body to throw. Straight over the top release point in which he is forced to yank his head out of the way. Might scare some, doesn’t scare me.....certainly not when you’re this efficient with your body. This is my #1 pick, hands down.

Grade: A+

Lincecum is expected to make his pro debut this week for Salem-Keizer.

#11 - Arizona Diamondbacks - P Maxwell Scherzer

I keep watching his video, but just don’t see it befitting a #11 overall pick. The positives: He gets out front to a firm front side. His mechanics are smooth and polished and repeatable. Pretty good arm action. Negatives: Doesn’t go after it. Looks like he starts his torso rotation early. Kinda “pushes” the ball a bit. Risky pick in my opinion. Another guy that I doubt will keep his velocity. No thanks, not at 11.

Grade: C

Scherzer remains unsigned.

#12 - Texas Rangers - P Kasey Kiker

I’m not enamored with his arm action. However, I like how he uses his body to throw the ball. Powerful leg drive into an aggressive hip/torso turn. I hope they let him “let it fly” because it is not his arm action that gives him his plus velocity. His mechanics remind me of Mike Stanton, who I consider a little stiff (especially his arm action). I’m a little skeptical of this pick this high, but he looks like an athlete who pitches, and that is a plus.

Grade: B-

Kiker was assigned to Spokane rather than an Instructional League team and has had a rough start, allowing 16 runs in 12 innings with 11 strikeouts, but 10 walks.

#13 - Chicago Cubs - LF Tyler Colvin

MLB says that there is no power yet, but there is room for growth. Well, until he learns to use his body to bring his arms into the ball and not the other way around, he won’t develop power. You can see him “throw the hands at the ball.” It is not a good thing. Very few that hit for consistent power literally “throw the hands at the ball.” There is hope because he at least looks like a good athlete.

Grade: C-

Colvin signed quickly and is hitting 246/329/369 for the Boise Hawks.

#14 - Toronto Blue Jays - RF Travis Snider

Ok swing, although he lunges a bit. Decent turn through the ball, but not enough there to really impress me. I’d have concerns about drafting a 230 lb. 18-year old unless he can mash like there’s no tomorrow. See Fielder, Prince. At #14, I don’t know if I’d draft him here. Later in the 1st round, sure.

Grade: C+

Assigned to the Pulaski Blue Jays, Snider is hitting 290/364/464.

#15 - Washington Nationals - OF Christopher Marrero

Handsy swing. Again, he disconnects his hands from his body. Turn your body quickly and your hands will follow. Thrust your hands out at the ball, and you don’t give your body a chance to contribute to bat speed. Don’t get me wrong, it’s not completely terrible, but there’s work to be done. Luckily, he’s 6’3” 210 lbs., so there’s hope.

Grade: C-

Marrero received a $1.625 million signing bonus from the Nationals and is 9-for-22 with 3 doubles for the Gulf Coast League Nats.

#16 - Milwaukee Brewers - P Jeremy Jeffress

I just don’t see how he generates the supposed “triple-digit” velocity. He doesn’t have the “intent” or the mechanics to do so. I would need to see more video of him, because on this video he’s not close to 100 mph. I heard 100 mph, so I wouldn’t expect a game-speed fastball at 88 at any point in his video, like I saw here. He at least has the potential to develop more velocity I guess.

Grade: D

Jeffress has struck out 8 batters in 7 1/3 innings in the Arizona League.

#17 - San Diego Padres - 3B Matt Antonelli

Defensively, he looks like he’s smooth. His swing, on the other hands, leaves a lot to be desired. He lunges and “goes and gets” the ball instead of letting the ball travel to him. He almost literally pecks at the ball. It is easier to control the bat if you don’t really swing it that hard, so maybe that’s why I hear he put up decent numbers. Maybe he’ll be Craig Counsell with a little more power. I don’t see his upside being high enough to be picked at 17. No thanks, not here.

Grade: C-

Antonelli is hitting 295/435/364 for the Eugene Emeralds with a 22/11 BB/K ratio.

#18 - Philadelphia Phillies - P Kyle Drabek

Outstanding, short arm action. Short stride. Decent torso rotation. His velocity is more a result of his excellent arm action than anything else. Good tempo, although he can probably be quicker with such awesome arm mechanics. Looks like he has an awesome curveball, and so did his dad. Another good thing is that throws to a firm front side although his glove goes behind him after he throws. A good bet to continue to be one of those lucky bastards who generates “easy” velocity.

Grade: B+

Drabek had a disappointing professional debut in the Gulf Coast League, allowing 3 runs on 4 hits and a walk in his first and only inning.

#19 - Florida Marlins - P Brett Sinkbeil

Slow tempo, which I don’t like. However, without much lower body help, he flings it low to mid 90’s. Another example of excellent arm action. He really rotates his upper body well even though his lower body progresses slowly to foot plant. I’d be worried about injury with someone who is so passive with his lower body. By the way, I like him much more than Scherzer, his teammate. Then again, his tempo would scare me off, unless he’s willing to change.

Grade: B-

Sinkbeil has a 1.23 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 22 innings for Greensboro.

#20 - Minnesota Twins - RF Chris Parmelee

Like his swing quite a bit. He exhibits many of the qualities of a high-level swing. He has a smooth, powerful hack. See how he has that upper body lean back? It almost looks like an uppercut, but it’s not. Yeah, a good candidate to develop power, unless the Twins mess him up by insisting he inside out everything to left..Good turn thru the ball. Let this kid hit and pull the ball. Good pick here.

Grade: B+

Parmalee was assigned to the Twins’ Gulf Coast League team and is hitting 250/328/558.

#21 - New York Yankees - P Ian Kennedy

Another guy with outstanding arm action. Throws to a firm front side, which again helps ward off shoulder troubles. A guy in the Prior/Reyes mold although he has better tempo than Prior. A good pick here. He looks very polished. If he throws an easy 88-92, I can live with him not going “after it” as much I’d like.

Grade: B

Kennedy signed with the Yankees last Friday for $2.25 million.

#22 - Washington Nationals - P Colton Willems

Don’t like his arm action at all. With how his body works, he still generates good torque to create velocity. I think he’s a huge, risky project. His arm action would scare me off as it is an injury risk. One positive: Good curveball.

Grade: C-

Williams pitched 2 scoreless innings in his GCL debut last week.

#23 - Houston Astros - C Maxwell Sapp

At first glance, I liked his swing. It looks powerful and under control at the same time. After closer inspection, his swing is not as good as I originally thought. At first glance, it looks like he turns well though the ball. However, he doesn’t really turn. More than anything, he spins around his back leg.  That said, I don’t think he’s far off from having a good, powerful swing. He doesn’t throw his hands at the ball which is a definite plus. Behind the plate, he has a long arm action, which is not good if you’re looking to wear catcher’s gear. I don’t think he sticks behind the plate. I’m generally tougher on
overweight kids, as they have a higher risk of eating themselves out of baseball.

Grade: B-

Sapp is hitting 208/276/283 for Tri-City.

#24 - Atlanta Braves - OF John Johnson

When I first reviewed him I thought he was a reach in the 1st round. After watching the video more closely, I think he’s a reach in the 10th round. Watching it today, his swing is just not good. He has a complete disconnect between his hands and body. Watching it with my swing guru buddy/cousin today, he expressed sheer disgust as we watched Johnson’s swing frame-by-frame. Most Sunday hackers slice because they come over the top of the ball by yanking the hands from the outside in, instead of turning your body quickly with the hands following until ready to unleash hell. My guess is Johnson, if he is a golfer, either has a severe slice or a pull-hook. I guess he has quick enough hands and is a good athlete, but, uh, not the right pick.

Grade: F

#25 - Los Angeles Angels - C Hyun Choi Conger

I called him a top 10 guy the first time I saw the video. He might be more along the lines of top 6 or 7. Reviewed the video once again, and I think he’s an unbelievable steal at 25. His swing, right now from the right side, is a big leaguer’s swing. As a matter of opinion, he has the best, most powerful, just plain violent swing of anyone in the first round. His lefty swing isn’t as good, but is a high-level swing as well. GREAT, GREAT pick. A switch-hitting catcher with power from both sides? Sign me up. Oh, and he looks like he has decent movements behind the plate, with a shorter, truer catcher release. If he sticks at catcher, his value is, yeah, great. If he doesn’t, don’t worry, this guy will mash at first. How does Sapp go before this guy, I’ll never figure it out.

Grade: A

Conger was assigned to the Arizona League and is hitting 319/382/522 with 4 triples.

#26 - Los Angeles Dodgers - P Avery Morris

No video.

Grade: Incomplete

#27 - Boston Red Sox - CF Jason Place

Much in the mold of Johnson, the 24th pick, Place has a crappy, crappy swing. I don’t know where other scouts see his power potential. Again a severely disconnecting, handsy swing. He may end up being Gabe Kapler, who exhibits much of the same crappy swing qualities Place shows. Is he literally trying to bounce the ball off the plate? He may end up being one of those guys who produces empty batting averages. Because he’s decently fast, he’ll hit a few bloop doubles and such. No thanks, not at 27.

Grade: D

Place is hitting 265/362/306 in the GCL.

#28 - Boston Red Sox - P Daniel Bard

An absolute steal at 28. Good arm action, although a bit on the long side. Easy velocity and good tempo and separation between upper and lower body. I’d like to see a side shot to check out stride length, glove arm movement and “intent.” Give me this guy over Miller, his teammate, any day.

Grade: A-

Bard is currently unsigned and is reportedly seeking a major league deal.

#29 - Chicago White Sox - P Kyle McCulloch

Wow, he’s straight over the top. Easy, but yet he explodes well at release. Good tempo. Arm action OK, not great. I’d like it to be more “elbowy.” Good, safe pick at 29.

Grade: B-

Has a 3.18 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings for Great Falls.  Has allowed 11 unearned runs.

#30 - St. Louis Cardinals - P Adam Ottavino

I don’t see the “aggressiveness” that he has on the mound on his video.  Decent arm action, but doesn’t use his body well enough for my liking. As a safe, polished pick, then he’s Ok. I don’t see massive upside with this pick, but I can se him dominate the lower levels before he plateaus at AA.

Grade: C+

Ottavino’s had a terrific start in the New York-Penn League with a 1.46 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 24 2/3 innings for State College.

#31 - Los Angeles Dodgers - SS Preston Mattingly and #32 - Baltimore Orioles - P Pedro Beato

No video available.

Grade: Incomplete.

#33 - San Francisco Giants - SS Emmanuel Burriss

You know, if you’re gonna be a leadoff hitter with not much power who basically just tries to hit singles, then this is the swing to have. Doesn’t load up to try to hit the ball a long way but gets himself into good hitting position and has a good swing plane. Has a short, somewhat handsy swing, but he’ll get into a few and hit some doubles here and there. I don’t think there’s much upside with this pick, but it’s safe.

Grade: C+

Burriss signed immediately after the draft and has hit 260/342/302 for Salem-Keizer.

#34 - Arizona Diamondbacks - P Brooks Brown

Good pick here. Good arm action, good intent to throw. Does the “stepover” thing which helps his hips turn more violently. Throws to a firm front side.  There’s not much not to like with him really. Not super uber-impressed, but this is a good pick at 34.

Grade: B+

Brown received a $1 million signing bonus and was assigned to Yakima.

#35 - San Diego Padres - RF Kyler Burke

on the mound, OK. I see why they like him more as an OF. He has good arm action but doesn’t explode through the ball with his mechanics. His swing looks decent enough, a tad handsy but not bad at all. Good risk pick here.

Grade: B

Burke has hit 239/329/338 in the AZL.

#36 - Florida Marlins - 3B Chris Coghlan

Another guy with a “batting average” swing. He doesn’t really load up to try to hit bombs, although he could afford to go after it because he’s got a short enough swing for it. I’d totally pick him over Burriss because Coghlan has a better chance at developing some lift in his swing.

Grade: B-

Coghlan and the Marlins are currently finalizing a deal.  Once he’s signed, the Marlins will have signed their top 19 draft picks.

#37 - Philadelphia Phillies - SS Adrian Cardenas

Looks fluid on the field. His swing has some pop behind it. He looks like he stays behind the ball well and actually tries to hit the ball hard. A better pick than his teammate Marrero. Out of the middle infielders here in the supplemental 1st, I’d take him over the others.

Grade: B

Cardenas is coming around after a tough start for the Gulf Coast Phillies, hitting 250/321/397.

#38 - Atlanta Braves - P Cory Rasmus

Their mistake on round 1 is made up for with Rasmus. Very much like this kid. Clean, yet explosive mechanics. Good solid arm action.  Good intent, good tempo. Shortish arm action which I like. Very aggressive but under control…

Grade: B+

Rasmus has an 8.59 ERA with 5 walks in 7 1/3 innings for the GCL Braves.

#39 - Cleveland Indians - P David Huff

I wonder if he lists Tom Glavine as one of his idols, because that is exactly who he looks like. Doesn’t really go after it, but has simple, repeatable mechanics. Safe pick, but will obviously have to command the strike zone to be successful. A “stuff” pitcher he is not.

Grade: B-

Huff is currently unsigned.

#40 - Boston Red Sox - P Kristofer Johnson

He’s a tall lefty who throws hard, but I just don’t like how he delivers the ball. His arm action is not that good with a hitch that I can’t get over. Just not smooth enough for me. Shoulder problems on the way. Will not keep his stuff throughout his career.

Grade: C+

Johnson has struck out 11 in 9 2/3 innings for Lowell.

#41 - New York Yankees - P Joba Chamberlain

This Sidney Ponson wannabe doesn’t have Ponson’s powerful mechanics (not this year, I’m talking years past). I just don’t like him nearly enough for all the buzz he gets. I like athletes, and if he turns out like Ponson, he will weigh 280 in few years. No thank you.

Grade: C

Chamberlain remains unsigned.

#42 - St. Louis Cardinals - P Christopher Perez

Quick, powerful, compact arm action. I love this pick at 42. Good intent to throw. Gets out in front well enough. Like how late he breaks his hands. 

Grade: B+

Perez has a 1.59 ERA in 6 relief appearances for the Quad Cities Swing.

With that out of the way, this is my draft order. Again, it is based only on the guys picked in the 1st round. It follows the rankings for the most part,

but, in some cases, I pick upside more than safety and vice versa.

1) Lincecum
2) Morrow
3) Conger
4) Lincoln
5) Longoria
6) Bard
7) Hochevar
8) Kershaw
9) Reynolds
10) Parmelee
11) Drabek
12) Brown
13) Miller
14) Perez
15) Kiker
16) Kennedy
17) Sinkbeil
18) Sapp
19) McCulloch
20) Sinkbeil
21) Burke
22) Clay
23) Cardenas
24) Snyder
25) Huff
26) Scherzer
27) Stubbs
28) Colvin
29) Willems
30) K Johnson
31) Jeffress
32) Ottavino
33) Antonelli
34) Coghlan
35) Chamberlain
36) Place
37) J. Johnson
38) Burriss