BBTF's Notes in a Minor Key Discussion

Monday, May 05, 2008

BTF Mock Draft

With the annual Rule 4 draft coming up quickly (June 5), I’d like to gauge how much interest there would be among the BTF community in staging our own mock draft. I’d shoot for doing one about a week or so before the actual draft (last week of May).

The purpose of this thread is to do two things:

1. gauge interest. How many people would volunteer to handle their favorite team?
2. discuss logistics. Doing a mock draft in real-time usually requires a time commitment from people that covers hours - if you do a three-round mock draft, including supplemental picks that’s 112 players, which means that if you allow 2 minutes/pick you’re looking at a four-hour time commitment.

Three rounds is about as far as I’d want to take it. The order is:

First round

1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. Pittsburgh Pirates
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. San Francisco Giants
6. Florida Marlins
7. Cincinnati Reds
8. Chicago White Sox
9. Washington Nationals
10. Houston Astros
11. Texas Rangers
12. Oakland Athletics
13. St. Louis Cardinals
14. Minnesota Twins
15. Los Angeles Dodgers
16. Milwaukee Brewers
17. Toronto Blue Jays
18. New York Mets (from Atlanta Braves, compensation for Tom Glavine)
19. Chicago Cubs
20. Seattle Mariners
21. Detroit Tigers
22. New York Mets
23. San Diego Padres
24. Philadelphia Phillies
25. Colorado Rockies
26. Arizona Diamondbacks
27. Minnesota Twins (from LA Angels of Anaheim, compensation for Torii Hunter)
28. New York Yankees
29. Cleveland Indians
30. Boston Red Sox

Supplemental 1st round

31. Minnesota Twins (Hunter)
32. Milwaukee Brewers (Francisco Cordero to Cincinnati)
33. New York Mets (Glavine)
34. Philadelphia Phillies (Aaron Rowand to SF)
35. Milwaukee Brewers (Scott Linebrink to Chicago White Sox)
36. Kansas City Royals (David Riske to Milwaukee)
37. San Francisco Giants (Pedro Feliz to Philadelphia)
38. Houston Astros (Trever Miller to Tampa Bay)
39. St. Louis Cardinals (Troy Percival to Tampa Bay)
40. Atlanta Braves (Ron Mahay to Kansas City)
41. Chicago Cubs (Jason Kendall to Milwaukee)
42. San Diego Padres (Doug Brocail to Houston)
43. Arizona Diamondbacks (Livan Hernandez to Minnesota)
44. New York Yankees (Luis Vizcaino to Colorado)
45. Boston Red Sox (Eric Gagne to Milwaukee)
46. San Diego Padres (Mike Cameron to Milwaukee)

Second round

47. Tampa Bay Rays
48. Pittsburgh Pirates
49. Kansas City Royals
50. Baltimore Orioles
51. Philadelphia Phillies (from San Francisco Giants, compensation for Rowand)
52. Florida Marlins
53. Milwaukee Brewers (from Cincinnati Reds, compensation for Cordero)
54. Milwaukee Brewers (from Chicago White Sox, compensation for Linebrink)
55. Washington Nationals
56. Houston Astros
57. Texas Rangers
58. Oakland Athletics
59. St. Louis Cardinals
60. Minnesota Twins
61. Los Angeles Dodgers
62. Milwaukee Brewers
63. Toronto Blue Jays
64. Atlanta Braves
65. Chicago Cubs
66. Seattle Mariners
67. Detroit Tigers
68. New York Mets
69. San Diego Padres
70. Atlanta Braves (compensation for failure to sign 2007 draftee Joshua Fields)
71. Philadelphia Phillies
72. Colorado Rockies
73. Arizona Diamondbacks
74. LA Angels of Anaheim
75. New York Yankees
76. Cleveland Indians
77. Boston Red Sox

Third round

78. Tampa Bay Rays
79. Pittsburgh Pirates
80. Kansas City Royals
81. Baltimore Orioles
82. San Francisco Giants
83. Florida Marlins
84. Cincinnati Reds
85. Boston Red Sox (compensation for failure to sign 2007 draftee Hunter Morris)
86. Chicago White Sox
87. Washington Nationals
88. Houston Astros
89. Texas Rangers
90. Oakland Athletics
91. St. Louis Cardinals
92. Minnesota Twins
93. Los Angeles Dodgers
94. Milwaukee Brewers
95. Toronto Blue Jays
96. Atlanta Braves
97. Chicago Cubs
98. Seattle Mariners
99. Detroit Tigers
100. New York Mets
101. San Diego Padres
102. Philadelphia Phillies
103. Colorado Rockies
104. Arizona Diamondbacks
105. LA Angels of Anaheim
106. New York Yankees
107. Cleveland Indians
108. Boston Red Sox

Supplemental 3rd

109. Philadelphia Phillies (compensation for failure to sign 2007 draftee Brandon Workman)
110. Houston Astros (compensation for failure to sign 2007 draftee Derek Dietrich)
111. San Diego Padres (compensation for failure to sign 2007 draftee Tommy Toledo)
112. LA Angels of Anaheim (compensation for failure to sign 2007 draftee Matt Harvey)

Note that the compensatory picks for the Braves (at 70) and the Red Sox (at 85) have changed. Originally those picks were 18 positions higher, but MLB reinterpreted the draft rules surrounding the awarding of compensatory picks for failure to sign high draftees.

Mike Emeigh Posted: May 05, 2008 at 11:07 AM | 47 comment(s)
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1. Nate Posted: May 05, 2008 at 12:22 PM (#2769259)

I'd be interested, and I'd suggest a slow-live format. Spread it over a week, give everyone pre-defined times they need to draft. If you give everyone a half-hour window and assume drafting for 10 hours a day you can be done in under 6 days.

2. Mike Emeigh Posted: May 05, 2008 at 01:04 PM (#2769332)

I'd be interested, and I'd suggest a slow-live format. Spread it over a week, give everyone pre-defined times they need to draft. If you give everyone a half-hour window and assume drafting for 10 hours a day you can be done in under 6 days.

I like that idea.

-- MWE

3. Greg Schuler Posted: May 05, 2008 at 01:07 PM (#2769337)

Myself, I'd said do it real-time like the real draft. There's nothing quite like pulling names off a board. Cursing when your guy goes a few picks before your spot.

But given that people have lives and jobs, the suggestion from Nate sounds reasonable and workable.

4. kevin Posted: May 05, 2008 at 01:15 PM (#2769345)

I'll do it, Mike.

What is your plan? Are you going to assign a team to each player? And then, what happens after that? Are you going to rate the success of the drafts based on minor league statistics?

Please advise.

5. Kyle S at work Posted: May 05, 2008 at 01:38 PM (#2769389)

I think this is a great idea. I'd rather not draft for the Braves, simply because I don't know much about the pool of players they'll be selecting from with their low picks, but if you can't find anyone else, I'll do it.

6. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 05, 2008 at 01:39 PM (#2769390)

I like the idea, but I'm definitely going to defer to Mike on picking for the Pirates.

7. Backlasher Posted: May 05, 2008 at 01:51 PM (#2769413)

Is htere any place that lists prospect's weight? If so, I could easily pick for the A's.

8. Master of the small sample size Posted: May 05, 2008 at 02:22 PM (#2769465)

I can handle the Braves as long as I have position-height-zip code.

9. MM1f Posted: May 05, 2008 at 02:44 PM (#2769495)

I would love to do this. I've done this for Sickles' site and I've (kind of nerdily) been assembling a draft board when I should be working to do a full shadow draft this year

10. MM1f Posted: May 05, 2008 at 02:45 PM (#2769498)

To follow up...
I am of course a Braves fan but could draft capably for them or anyone else

11. Mike Emeigh Posted: May 05, 2008 at 03:10 PM (#2769525)

I like the idea, but I'm definitely going to defer to Mike on picking for the Pirates.

Actually, you can do the Pirates - there will probably be a few teams that no one will wind up volunteering to do which I'll do.

Are you going to assign a team to each player?

I'd much rather have people to volunteer to draft for a team, presumably their primary rooting interest.

-- MWE

12. Craig K some obscure verb phrase Posted: May 05, 2008 at 03:15 PM (#2769527)

Dibs on Cardinals

13. Sometimes it Rains (sj) Posted: May 05, 2008 at 03:15 PM (#2769528)

Yankees got a draft pick for Luis Vizcano?

####### awesome. I thought he was dead. I am glad he is not dead, and just in the NL.

14. 4seamer Posted: May 05, 2008 at 03:17 PM (#2769531)

Mike - consider putting a pool of knowledgeable users together for each team (say 5 max from those interested here), each with one vote, and each submits anonymously to a mock board email account. Then the board tallies the votes and announces the pick.

You could run the board in a way that requires the Pirates 5 users to submit their picks before the Rays users time slot is up, the #3 sumbits to the board during #2's pick time limit, etc. That way you stay one pick ahead all the time allowing the board time to tally. If there is a tie because someone doesn't submit, take the first and last entries submitted to get the pick. If still a tie, then the next order would be the first and second pick emailed to the board.

15. flournoy Posted: May 05, 2008 at 03:27 PM (#2769540)

@14:

That's an interesting idea, but I imagine that it'll be hard enough to find 30 interested people, much less 150. I wouldn't want to do a team all on my own, but if I were part of a Braves "panel," then that might work.

16. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 05, 2008 at 03:31 PM (#2769544)

I nominate Temple for the Red Sox draft.

17. kevin Posted: May 05, 2008 at 03:56 PM (#2769570)

Does it really matter what team you draft for? It's not like you have to know anything about what team you're drafting for to do a good job.

Give me Minnesota.

18. villageidiom Posted: May 05, 2008 at 03:57 PM (#2769573)

45. Boston Red Sox (Eric Gagne to Milwaukee)

Heh.

I'm interested in the proceedings and results, but not in actually participating.

19. rawagman Posted: May 05, 2008 at 05:29 PM (#2769654)

I'd love to contribute by handling the Blue Jays draft. JP Ricciardi is slowly developing his talents and may surprise in real life. I figure I might as well preview some of those surprises now!

20. kevin Posted: May 05, 2008 at 05:34 PM (#2769656)

Looks like the Brewers are best situated to bring in a haul. 7 pickes in the first 3 rounds.

21. JJ1986 Posted: May 05, 2008 at 05:34 PM (#2769657)

I'd be interested and I'm perfectly content to take a team no one wants. Say, the Marlins.

22. Nate Posted: May 05, 2008 at 08:48 PM (#2769867)

I'll defer to Temple on the Sox as well. I know someone from both the Nationals and Astros organizations, so I'd be glad to draft for one of them (or both, if needed).

23. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: May 05, 2008 at 08:53 PM (#2769873)

I'm waaaay out of touch this year, but should be able to fill in for some team that no one wants.

Not to be weird, but should my selections take into account the philosophies and development acumen (or lack thereof) of the organization I'm associated with (if any)?

24. Mike Emeigh Posted: May 05, 2008 at 09:04 PM (#2769897)

Not to be weird, but should my selections take into account the philosophies and development acumen (or lack thereof) of the organization I'm associated with (if any)?

No. The idea is for you to use your own judgment as to who *you* would pick, given the option to pick in that spot. I guarantee you that had I been drafting at #4 a year ago instead of David Littlefield, I'd have taken Jason Heyward.

-- MWE

25. MM1f Posted: May 05, 2008 at 09:26 PM (#2769955)

"I'd much rather have people to volunteer to draft for a team, presumably their primary rooting interest."

I'll volunteer for the Braves then, though I would take a team no one wants if needed as well

26. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: May 05, 2008 at 09:36 PM (#2769982)

Drafting for Milwaukee is pretty simple. Big bat, defense optional.

I will help out with Milwaukee if better informed folks like NTN and battlekow take a pass.

Or if one of the newer folks is really enthused about it. We need to get some fresh blood involved.

Consider me a fallback option....

27. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: May 05, 2008 at 10:00 PM (#2770061)

The idea is for you to use your own judgment as to who *you* would pick, given the option to pick in that spot.

Yeah, but if I'm the Twins, and I'm have faith in my organization's ability to teach pitchers with a modicum of control to hit spots, but not keen on the ability to impart pitch selection to hitters (or whatever), I might pick differently than if I'm in a vacuum.
Granted, vacuum's easier.

28. Mike Emeigh Posted: May 05, 2008 at 10:34 PM (#2770153)

Yeah, but if I'm the Twins, and I'm have faith in my organization's ability to teach pitchers with a modicum of control to hit spots, but not keen on the ability to impart pitch selection to hitters (or whatever), I might pick differently than if I'm in a vacuum.

I feel this way: In a mock draft, if you are drafting for a team, you should use whatever information you think is relevant to make your selection. Some guys will draft best player available regardless, some guys will draft for need, some guys will draft based on what they know of the team (e.g. they won't draft a Boras advisee because they think the team wouldn't, or shouldn't). I have no problem with whatever approach people take to running their team's draft.

-- MWE

29. Eraser-X is dominating this site! Posted: May 05, 2008 at 10:37 PM (#2770170)

Can we have a mock draft of primates?

30. MM1f Posted: May 05, 2008 at 10:49 PM (#2770190)

Looking at the picks, I might prefer the Astros since i can't think of any astros draftniks on this site. but i'll pick for any team really

31. Phil Coorey & The Major Posted: May 05, 2008 at 10:56 PM (#2770205)

Great idea - i'm just keen on watching.

32. Rafael Bellylard (p8p) Posted: May 06, 2008 at 09:07 AM (#2770525)

Depending on the day, I could take a team.

33. rawagman Posted: May 06, 2008 at 10:53 AM (#2770617)

Is there anywhere where I could find out (for free) which prospects are represented by Boras, or high schoolers with college commitments who are overly likely to follow through go to school?

34. Mike Emeigh Posted: May 06, 2008 at 12:09 PM (#2770694)

Is there anywhere where I could find out (for free) which prospects are represented by Boras

Not a complete list, I don't think, but you'll see plenty of references here and there.

Top prospects being advised by Boras include:

Pedro Alvarez
Eric Hosmer
Aaron Crow
Allan Dykstra
Alex Meyer
Gerrit Cole
Josh Fields

More will come forward, I'm sure.

high schoolers with college commitments who are overly likely to follow through go to school?

Same thing. You'll find lots of references, but a complete list will be hard to come by.

Sonny Gray, RHP out of Smyrna, TN who's committed to Vanderbilt, has been hurt this spring, and is odds-on to go to Vandy. Brett DeVall, LHP from Niceville, FL and a Georgia signee, has seen his stock drop as well.

-- MWE

35. TempleUSox is in the Best Shape of His Life Posted: May 06, 2008 at 12:19 PM (#2770707)

I'd be willing to do the Sox as long as I'm not busy.

36. Horry Kow-battle! Posted: May 06, 2008 at 12:35 PM (#2770730)

I'll help out with the Brewers if need be.

37. Brian Oliver Posted: May 06, 2008 at 03:24 PM (#2770905)

Depending upon when you are planning to do this, I'd be willing to take the Nationals

38. knucklehead7 Posted: May 06, 2008 at 04:18 PM (#2770995)

I was going to offer to take the Nats, but I don't think you could find someone more knowledgeable about the Nats' farm system that Brian Oliver.

39. AJM Posted: May 06, 2008 at 04:39 PM (#2771012)

The Mets have 3 of the first 33 picks? Thanks Atlanta!

40. HappyBuddaH Posted: May 06, 2008 at 09:43 PM (#2771465)

I could pick for the 'Stros. I keep up with their minor league system and live in the Houston area when I follow UH and Rice baseball along with some high school games.

HappyBuddaH@aol.com

41. Nate Posted: May 06, 2008 at 10:38 PM (#2771550)

Seems others have stepped up for the Red Sox, Astros, and Nationals, so I'll grab the Padres and have fun with a plethora of draft picks.

42. Meatwad, giving editors heart attacks since 1985 Posted: May 07, 2008 at 03:14 AM (#2771894)

if i had any attention span i would pick for the cubs, sadly i dont.

erasier we all know that im a first round pick in the primate draft, but my signability concerns will drop me down

43. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: May 07, 2008 at 03:49 AM (#2771896)

If no one else steps for the Angels, I guess I can give it a try, though I don't really have the knowledge to do it. I do have Baseball America's college preview issue, and I do read Saber-Scouting and John Sickels.

44. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: May 07, 2008 at 03:46 PM (#2772487)

What the hell, I'm up for it. Between BA's preseason Top 100 college and HS lists, Saber-Scouting, Sickels, and Google, I guess I should be okay.

45. something clever Posted: May 08, 2008 at 07:17 PM (#2774167)

44. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: May 07, 2008 at 03:46 PM (#2772487)
What the hell, I'm up for it. Between BA's preseason Top 100 college and HS lists, Saber-Scouting, Sickels, and Google, I guess I should be okay.

It'll be like you're sitting in the A's draft room circa 2002. Keep your Milo's handy.

46. kevin Posted: May 08, 2008 at 07:31 PM (#2774172)

So, the Gagne trade might turn out OK for the Red sox after.

I don't think Murphy and Gabbard are going to be all that great and the supplemental could churn a really good player. so, I guess it was worth a new tumble of the dice, even if the games Gagne blowtorched last year left bald spots on your head.

47. PanRains Posted: May 10, 2008 at 09:57 PM (#2776414)

I'm more of a lurker than some of the other Indians fans like Bernal, Dan Lee, Tony, Matthew Rich, etc, but if they don't want to participate I'd be happy to take the Tribe. And if they do want to participate, I'd be happy to help them or take an orphan team.

48. Tony H. Posted: May 13, 2008 at 01:52 AM (#2778671)

I'm more of a lurker than some of the other Indians fans like Bernal, Dan Lee, Tony, Matthew Rich, etc, but if they don't want to participate I'd be happy to take the Tribe. And if they do want to participate, I'd be happy to help them or take an orphan team.

Dude, go for it. I'm pretty much a lurker these days anyway, and I'm sure you know more about the amateur draft than any of us, anyway. Pick well; I'll be watching!

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