The top three guys I had for the Orioles, in order, were Vitters, Moustakas, and Heyward. I didn't think I'd have a shot at Vitters (and I didn't), but I had no problems with Moustakas at #5.

The Orioles will very likely go for a college pitcher in "real life", from what I've heard. I just don't see Moskos or Detwiler as being what the Birds need right now.

-- MWE

Ugh. The Giants aren't going to get this year's version of Lincecum to fall to #10, are they.

The Giants aren't going to get this year's version of Lincecum to fall to #10, are they.

Wieters might very well be there when they pick.

-- MWE

That's what we are hoping for.

I wound up making a pick in the 2nd round for the Marlins, and took Travis Mattair, a 3B from Southridge HS in Kennewick, WA. Mattair was a SS in HS, but projects to play 3B as a pro. He has excellent power potential, and heaven knows the Marlins could use a power bat in their system. By the time he's ready for the majors, Cabrera will probably be ready to leave as a free agent.

-- MWE

I would be ecstatic if the Pirates took Vitters at #4. I understand that they probably will if he's there, but I'm pretty sure they'd pass on Wieters if Vitter is already gone. That being said, I think that arms are rare and Detwiler wouldn't be a terribly pick at 4 if Vitters is gone and they want to stay away from Wieters. It's better than Beau Mills at #4, which I've read a few places.

I finally got back into the game for the Orioles in the 4th round, picking Carmen Angelini, a HS SS out of Louisiana. I like his developing power and his defensive ability; the main question is whether his arm will be strong enough for SS in the pros.

-- MWE

I think that arms are rare and Detwiler wouldn't be a terribly pick at 4 if Vitters is gone and they want to stay away from Wieters.

The Pirates would be pilloried for picking yet another college pitcher in the first round. If Vitters is gone, I fully expect them to draft Mills. I would take Moustakas or Heyward myself, but Moustakas isn't the type of player that typically interests Littlefield/Creech and Heyward probably reminds them too much of JJ Davis (not without reason).

-- MWE

I went for a college arm in Round 5, Scott Green from the University of Kentucky, who's a draft-eligible sophomore. Green's got the pitches to succeed, and he's already been through the injury nexus (he missed all of 2006 following TJ surgery, and missed some time this year with a variety of minor injuries. As a DE sophomore, he has a lot of leverage, but the Orioles certainly have the money to take someone like Green around here and go over slot for him.

I also drafted for the Reds and Tigers in Round 5. For Cincy, I took a bit of a risk in picking Texas HS pitcher Brandon Workman. Workman has top-round quality pitches but awful mechanics, and the Reds don't exactly have a great track record with HS pitchers (Homer Bailey aside). For Detroit, I opted for Angel Morales, a HS OF out of Puerto Rico who has been compared favorably to Carlos Beltran at the same age, although his swing does have some holes.

-- MWE

Mike, is the reason that LaPorta is falling (or will) fall so much is because he's relegated to first base (if that -- I've heard bad things about his defense)? I don't follow college baseball very much, but I can't imagine a whole lot of guys are having a better year than LaPorta -- his OPS is over 1.300 and he's only striking out in about 9% of his at-bats. Considering the Sox system is so devoid of talent within the position players (sans Sweeney, Fields, Cunningham and Carter), I'd be pretty happy with LaPorta.

LaPorta's still going to go in the first round - but I, for one, don't know if he's going to develop enough to have the bat for 1B/DH, and that's all he can play.

-- MWE

Could Mills be switched to another position? With Zimmerman all of 22, it wouldn't make sense for the Nationals to draft a third baseman, especially since Ryan is close to Gold Glove status.

"Could Mills be switched to another position?"

Well Best Player Available, regardless of your ML situation, is always the way to go, although a guy like Mills is close enough (as far as draftees go) to the majors that his future spot is worth considering.

That being said, Mills ability to stay at third is in doubt so with Zimmerman already in the org that would just accelerate his move to first base.
Free content from Perfect Game (a top notch scouting service):
Scouts are uncertain whether he’ll stay at third base, or may have to move across the diamond, in pro ball. His range is passable by third-base standards, but the larger issue is his arm—his only below-average tool. Mills has a funky, shot-put type arm action that may not be suitable for third base in the long run, but his throws are normally true and accurate. No matter where he plays, his bat will play. Few, if any, college position players in this draft possess his offensive profile.

BA's take is that he can stay at third, saying he works hard and his footwork could make him fringe-average, but would be below-average there, but his bat would obviously play better there.

Left field would seem to be a possibility if his speed stays below-average to fringe-average and doesnt deteriorate to "bad"

for what its worth the Braves picks went:
14. Josh Smoker, HS LHP, Calhoun, GA
33. Will Middlebrooks, 3b, HS, Texarkana, TX
70. Josh Horton, SS, UNC
79. Jon Gilmore, 3b, HS Iowa
109. Jess Todd, RHP, U Arkansas
138. Nicholas Barnese, RHP, Simi Valley (CA) HS
168. Dominic De la Osa, SS/OF, Vanderbilt

I was thinking of Main at 14, liking the raw upside his big velo and athleticism (could have been a 1st round OF too) gave him, but went with Smokers good stuff, broad repertoire, multiple potential out pitches and great pitchability. Smokers velo in his last couple starts was down a little, I hope it doesnt spell future injury. Varitations in that sort of thing are normal though

Middlebrooks is a HS SS who will be an athletic pro 3b. As a pitcher only he would be a fairly high pick too (low 90s fb and plus curve, plus an athletic 6-4 215 frame). He lead his team to state titles in football (he garnered some college interest as a QB and punter) and baseball. I like that competitive background combined with his good tools. good power potential but a little raw

I've seen Horton alot. His stance is weird but he gets great results. Lots of line drives, good defensive SS (some would argue with that), great BB/K, good body. Team leader and impact player since day 1 of his freshman year. Considered a top 200 draft prospect out of HS too.
Hit 335/446/549 with 44 BBs and 14 Ks in 224 ABs. Hit 395/445/542 last year with 12-13 SBs.

Jon Gilmore is somewhat similar to Middlebrooks as a HS SS destined for 3b. I'm alittle concerned that if this were a real life draft I'd have trouble splitting time for Middlebrooks and Gilmore at 3b in the minors as theyd likely be teammates. Hes an Iowa HSer and they have a tendency to be underdrafted and then take off.
6-3, 190. enough of an athlete to get a little college football interest. strong arm, quick bat, good power potential
I figure one of Middlebrooks or Gilmore will pan out

Jess Todd I saw on TV a few times. Hard thrower, nasty splitter. 95 Ks, 22 BBs in 73 college innings this year. 2.95 ERA. Started the year as the closer but moved to the rotation. Might be a pen arm in pro ball but his arm is talented enough to take a chance on him sticking as a starter and if not he'll be a great reliever.

Barnese I know the least about. Seems raw but has good velo, great life and solid control on the fastball. Might need scrap curve for a slider due to low arm slot
Projectable frame. Athletic, with a quick arm.
Baseball America top 100 draft prospect

de la Osa (5-11, 190) might have been a reach with my last pick. hes not showing up in a top 100-200 prospects lists but hes got good tools and walloped the ball all year long. Made Perfect Game's cape cod league top 25 where showed all 5 tools and hit 271 with wood bats in a pitchers league while playing SS. Supposed to have outstanding makeup. Played RF at Vandy but could play SS in the pros. I see him as similar to Brent Lillibridge.
Hit .384/455/743 this year at Vandy. 19-25 on SBs. 22 double, 2 triples, 19 homers and not in a power hitting park either as he and Pedro Alvarez were the only 'Dores with more than 6 Hrs.
25 BBs, 15 HBP, 45 K in 237 ABs.
Was a solid player as a freshman, good enough to start, and has gotten significantly better each year
Drafted out of HS in 04.

That's what we are hoping for.

As I've mentioned before, there's been rumblings via the local beat writers the last week or so that the Brewers might grab him.

They don't pick again until the third round, Attanasio isn't stingy, and a nice impact catcher would be a lovely addition to the homegrown lineup the Brewers have been creating...

Middlebrooks is a HS SS who will be an athletic pro 3b. As a pitcher only he would be a fairly high pick too (low 90s fb and plus curve, plus an athletic 6-4 215 frame). He lead his team to state titles in football (he garnered some college interest as a QB and punter) and baseball. I like that competitive background combined with his good tools. good power potential but a little raw

I've seen Horton alot. His stance is weird but he gets great results. Lots of line drives, good defensive SS (some would argue with that), great BB/K, good body. Team leader and impact player since day 1 of his freshman year. Considered a top 200 draft prospect out of HS too.
Hit 335/446/549 with 44 BBs and 14 Ks in 224 ABs. Hit 395/445/542 last year with 12-13 SBs.

I would be very surprised if the Braves actually picked any IF in the first 4 rounds of the actual draft. The system is stocked with tweeners in the IF, and Horton, doesn't look like he will profile any better. I would say they would be more liable to stock up on live HS arms and OFs

Horton reminds me a wee bit of Jeff Keppinger, which probably isn't a good thing. (Not that Keppinger is a bad player - incidentally, he made a very smart play in left last night to double off a runner).
I like de la Osa as well, though not as much as I did Lillibridge (not sure de la Osa can stick in the infield + his K/W ratio is a turnoff).
Would Angelini sign in the 4th round? Probably, but I thought his commitment to Rice was pretty strong.

Would Angelini sign in the 4th round? Probably, but I thought his commitment to Rice was pretty strong.

My guess is that he won't sign for anything less than 2nd-round money. Ditto Green.

-- MWE

Well Best Player Available, regardless of your ML situation, is always the way to go, although a guy like Mills is close enough (as far as draftees go) to the majors that his future spot is worth considering.

I wouldn't be that all-encompassing. The Royals, for example, have an organizational need for young power arms across the board. When they draft #2, Best Player Available is likely to be Wieters, but I would take Porcello, who (a) isn't all that far behind Wieters and (b) fills the organizational need.

But as a general rule, it's hard to go wrong with Best Player Available.

-- MWE

"Mike, is the reason that LaPorta is falling (or will) fall so much is because he's relegated to first base (if that -- I've heard bad things about his defense)"

I've read the same negative reports on his defense, and they baffle me. He's a first baseman, yes, but I think he's really solid over there, and I've seen him a fair amount. Certainly he's never given me cause to think he's as awful as a lot of the reports indicate.

I don't think Crosby will slip to the Sox second pick. But if he even gets to their first pick, they will pop him. They were all over him this spring and brought him to Fenway earlier this week.

Mattair was a nice pick at 2, Mike. I don't think he was going to last much beyond that point.

If it's not too much trouble, can I get some community feedback on my 5th-round pick for the Bucs? I've never done a mock draft before, and I'd like to polish my skills a bit.

Smoker has gotten hit hard the last two games he pitched, against AA high school teams. (AA is the second smallest classification in the State of Georgia). I would hope that alone would drop him a round or two.

Mattair was a nice pick at 2, Mike. I don't think he was going to last much beyond that point.

Did you see how many people yelled at me for making that one on the spur of the moment? I have a feeling a couple of teams right behind that pick were lying in wait.

If it's not too much trouble, can I get some community feedback on my 5th-round pick for the Bucs?

Graham's a nice pitcher, who hadn't been a full-time starter before this year, so he doesn't have a lot of mileage on the arm. He's being looked at mostly as a setup reliever in the pros, although with some development (especially of his slider) he could close at some point. The biggest issues with him are mechanics (he's very stiff) and command in the strike zone (he needs to learn to work the corners more). Fifth round seems about right to me.

-- MWE

I don't think Crosby will slip to the Sox second pick. But if he even gets to their first pick, they will pop him.

It'll be close. Had I been running the draft for the Reds, I'd probably have taken him instead of McGeary at 53.

-- MWE

here is a post that i made the day before the mock draft:

it looks like this is my final board for sunday's mock draft:

19: justin jackson>devin mesoraco>madison bumgarner>will middlebrooks>kevin ahrens
37: john lucroy>kellen kulbacki>tim alderson>todd frazier>victor sanchez>carmen angellini
84: travis mattair>kentrail davis>neftali soto>jonny talley
108: cody gearrin>julian sampson>tanner robles>brett krill>sam runion

in a perfect world, this is what i want:

19: justin jackson, SS, HS
37: john lucroy, C, louisianna lafayette U
84: victor sanchez, 3B, HS
108: cody gearrin, RHRP, mercer U
114: julian sampson, RHSP, HS
144: brett krill, COF, HS

jackson is the obligatory toolsy, high risk, high reward guy that the phillies love to take in the first round. lucroy is the polished college hitter that can move quickly through the system, and provide an impact bat. sanchez is the slick fielding 3B that has power potential, but is likely to struggle to hit for average over the next 2-3 years. sampson is the projectable high school righty. gearrin is the funky softtosser that gets hitters out with deception and guille. krill is the large bodied athlete that will make up for mike durant.

i'd really like to have an extra pick in the compensation round because that's where i see a whole lot of value (aaron fultz). lucroy and jackson are a bit of an overdraft, but i really like them, and i want to make sure that i get both of them because i'm not certain either of them will last until the next pick.

and here is the final result:


19: justin jackson, SS, HS
37: john lucroy, C, louisianna lafayette U
83: victor sanchez, 3B, HS
107: steven ness, LHP, HS
113: corey gearrin, RHRP, mercer U
143: marcus davis, OF, alcorn st. U
173: brett krill, OF, HS

the draft went pretty much as i expected, which is probobly a sign that i aimed too low. my first two picks were slight reaches according to the consensus opinion, but i really like jackson, and i think lucroy can make an impact fairly soon at C. i am fairly sure that neither would make it to the next pick. i was happy to get sanchez at 83, but i don't think he'll start to produce for another year or 2. ness is a prototypical HS lefty. gearrin was drafted in the hope of being this year's joe smith. he is a softtosser, but throws a reliable sinking fastball with a funky sidearm delivery.

marcus davis is a guy who has crushed the ball during his 3 year college career. i believe he has 15 homeruns and 30 SB this year, so he's got a nice power/speed competition.

brett krill is a 6'4" prepster that i drafted in the hopes that he could develop his immense power potential. him, and marcus davis, being available is a secondary reason why i drafted lucroy over kulbacki in the first round. i felt its a lot easier to find a good hitting COF than it is to find a good hitting C.

"Did you see how many people yelled at me for making that one on the spur of the moment?"

Yeah, it was pretty funny. "He was late! He doesn't deserve a pick that good!"

Thanks for the feedback.