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Notes in a Minor Key
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Thursday, November 09, 2006

Prospect Ratings, Part 5: Baseball Prospectus (Goldstein)

I would expect that most of the details of Kevin Goldstein’s rankings will be behind the Prospectus premium divider, with the usual rules applying to the discussion here (summarize, don’t cut-and-paste, etc.)

Pittsburgh: Andrew McCutchen #1.
Philadelphia: Carlos Carrasco #1.
New York Mets: Fernando Martinez #1.
Milwaukee: Ryan Braun #1.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw #1.
Houston: Jason Hirsh #1.
Florida: Sean West #1.
Colorado: Troy Tulowitzki #1.
Cincinnati: Homer Bailey #1.
Chicago Cubs: Donnie Veal #1.
Atlanta: Jarrod Saltalamacchia #1.
Arizona: Chris Young #1.

Mike Emeigh Posted: November 09, 2006 at 09:05 AM | 122 comment(s)
  Related News: Minor LeaguesProspect Reports

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   1. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:15 AM (#2233794)
zips loves him too, check out his HR rate.
Did breaking his wrist affect his performance in any way?
   2. Azteca Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:25 AM (#2233796)
Callaspo ranks 5th on Goldstein's prospect list, and 8th among Arizona's "25 & under" list. His AAA in 2006 are eye-popping; granted, his home was Tucson, but Dan's MLE give him this line: .303/.360/.424, with a 07 zips of .285/.339/.385. Kevin says he's capable of playing SS & 2B, and if I were Byrnes, I'd consider dealing O. Hudson for a young-ish pitcher, so that I could play AC. He really looks like a solid player, to me.
   3. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:28 AM (#2233799)
I don't get the lack of respect for Micah Owings. I like Mark Reynolds, but he has yet to find a defensive position and might not have the bat for a corner OF slot, and Brett Anderson, while he has a lot of potential, hasn't thrown a pitch in a professional game.

-- MWE
   4. 1k5v3L Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:39 AM (#2233807)
Callaspo!!!

I agree that Micah gets no respect. I would add Ohlendorf to this list as well.
   5. Azteca Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:43 AM (#2233810)
About Owings: I guess Kevin thinks he came to earth in AAA, with a K/BB ratio of 54/31 in 76+ innings. He also gave up a lot of hits. (Note: stats I posted are from FirstInning, which are different from the ones Goldstein has.)

Also, there are so many future stars in the DBacks system, even Kevin overlooks a guy who's he, himself, has touted in the recent past: Clye Hankerd. He's a left fielder, but he seems like he can mash. Somewhere I read (maybe at scout.com's profile) that he's Erubiel Durazo, part deux.
   6. 1k5v3L Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:49 AM (#2233815)
Owings had 20 some innings of pro ball before this season. He finished at AAA, and he finished strong at AAA as well. He was really good over this last 8 starts, and basically dominant right before and during the playoffs. The 54k/31bb don't tell you the whole story. And he made great strides in his changeup. In fact, if the Dbacks are tempted to start him in the majors as a reliever next year, then moving him in the rotation down the road, a la Papelbon
   7. Rob Base Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:50 AM (#2233817)
then moving him in the rotation down the road, a la Papelbon


Hey, I've got a great idea for how Arizona can make room in its starting rotation!
   8. 1k5v3L Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:51 AM (#2233818)
There shouldn't be an "if" in the last sentence.
   9. 1k5v3L Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:54 AM (#2233820)
That idea is so last year--the Dbacks already dumped El Duque on the Mets.
   10. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:55 AM (#2233824)
so many future stars in the DBacks system


I wouldn't go that far. There are lots of guys to like, but with the exception of Young and Gonzalez, the track records aren't really there yet.

-- MWE
   11. Rob Base Posted: November 09, 2006 at 11:00 AM (#2233831)
That idea is so last year--the Dbacks already dumped El Duque on the Mets.

That's a funny way to spell "the Mets dumped Jorge Julio on the starter-starved Diamondbacks."

By the way, remember when you thought you were getting Lastings Milledge instead of Julio? ROFLMAO
   12. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 09, 2006 at 11:07 AM (#2233842)
"By the way, remember when you thought you were getting Lastings Milledge instead of Julio? ROFLMAO"

Can you two just have sex already? Keerist.
   13. 1k5v3L Posted: November 09, 2006 at 11:17 AM (#2233848)
Vlad, Base wants it, but I'm just not into those things.
   14. Kyle S Posted: November 09, 2006 at 11:34 AM (#2233858)
I'd probably put Owings fourth. Montero hasn't really done all that much since his breakout start to 2005. Callaspo will be pretty good, but imho it's tough to give guys with so little upside the "good prospect" label, even though he's probably more likely to stick in the majors for 10 years than anyone else on this list. I've turned very skeptical about Carlos Gonzalez - he really looks like a creature of park effects. We'll see how he does in AA. Reynolds only deserves to be ranked that high if he can play a somewhat valuable position (i.e. 2B) - but why can't he? he was a decent SS at UVA while i was there.
   15. 1k5v3L Posted: November 09, 2006 at 11:41 AM (#2233862)
Kyle, I think you're underestimating the tough hitting environment in the Southern League. Montero also hit well once he got to AAA. But I'd like to hear what Emeigh thinks of Montero
   16. Rob Base Posted: November 09, 2006 at 11:57 AM (#2233871)
12. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:07 AM (#2233842)

"By the way, remember when you thought you were getting Lastings Milledge instead of Julio? ROFLMAO"

Can you two just have sex already? Keerist.
13. Knight Who Says Nye Mets (iksvel) Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:17 AM (#2233848)

Vlad, Base wants it, but I'm just not into those things.


Just when you thought Vlad and levski could not be worse posters. Well, Vlad could be worse in that he could be levski, but that's about it.
   17. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 09, 2006 at 11:57 AM (#2233872)
Montero and Kottaras are about equal in my book. Montero's the better defensive catcher, Kottaras has the better bat, at this stage.

-- MWE
   18. Mister High Standards Posted: November 09, 2006 at 11:59 AM (#2233875)
Question to a subscriber - I cancled my subsription to BP a about 6 months ago unhappy with the content. How is the content in this article?
   19. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 09, 2006 at 12:20 PM (#2233890)
"Just when you thought Vlad and levski could not be worse posters."

I'm just tired of you two flirting back and forth all the time. Enough is enough. You've thrown enough worms in each other's hair to adequately demonstrate mutual interest, now go and do it or forever hold your peace.

This #### is OLD. Like, his-head's-big-so-he-must-use-steroids old. Yun Taragoashi old...
   20. 1k5v3L Posted: November 09, 2006 at 12:26 PM (#2233899)
Montero and Kottaras are about equal in my book. Montero's the better defensive catcher, Kottaras has the better bat, at this stage.


Wait, is this a compliment or an insult? (j/k)

I hadn't heard the Kottaras comparison, but I have no issues with it.

Vlad, you should just relax
   21. 1k5v3L Posted: November 09, 2006 at 12:29 PM (#2233903)
FWIW, Zips likes Montero a lot more than Kottaras next year. So do I, not surprisingly.
   22. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: November 09, 2006 at 12:35 PM (#2233914)
Content of the Prospectus article is good not great, with that said I'm not sure it's something you couldn't get from a non pay site.
   23. Azteca Posted: November 09, 2006 at 12:36 PM (#2233916)
FWIW, Zips likes Montero a lot more than Kottaras next year. So do I, not surprisingly.


I saw that too. Was surprised about Kottaras's projection, though. Other than those 100, ugly at bats with the BoSox org, he's had a remarkable track-record with his bat. It makes me think, considering Montero's 1/2 year with Tucson, that Zips weighs a player's most-recent year, most heavily.
   24. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 09, 2006 at 12:43 PM (#2233924)
I hadn't heard the Kottaras comparison


That's probably because I'm the only one who's ever made it. I have a higher opinion of Kottaras than do most people, I think. I'm sure ZiPS likes Montero's power production and the difference in their AAA performances, but from what I've seen of Montero, he doesn't make solid contact as consistently as does Kottaras.

-- MWE
   25. KevinGoldstein Posted: November 09, 2006 at 01:06 PM (#2233938)
On Owings -- his peripheral numbers are really not very exciting, he deserves a ton of credit for getting as for as he did this year, but people just don't see any projection in his, very much an is what he is kinda guy -- which should be good enough for a nice career.

The biggest difference between Montero and Kottaras is a HUGE one -- Montero can catch, Kottaras is still pretty bad back there. If he doesn't improve, he could be setting off for an Eli Marrero kinda career in my mind -- I can't find anyone who thinks he's good enough defensively to be a every day catcher. The bat is good, not great, but where do you play him?

As for Reynolds, no WAY has can play SS in the big leagues, you're talking about a guy who couldn't even play well there in A ball -- and he'll need work to stay at 2B. That's the concern about him . . . as well as his akward style.

I appreciate the thread and the interesting posts.

KG
   26. Kyle S Posted: November 09, 2006 at 01:21 PM (#2233951)
Thanks for the response KG. I didn't mean to suggest that Reynolds would stick at SS or anything, just that he didn't completely embarrass himself there while he was at UVA (i'm a uva alum and went to games). if he really can't stick at second, i'm skeptical that he'll hit enough to be a big league regular anywhere else. and you're probably right about Owings, but i'm rooting for him anyway (which biases my value of him, definitely).

what do you think about montero vs kottaras hitting-wise?
   27. Azteca Posted: November 09, 2006 at 01:28 PM (#2233955)
his peripheral numbers are really not very exciting


Well, his peripherals are not very exciting for his 1/2 season in the PCL, granted, but during his short stint in the Cal League last year, and his first 1/2 in the Southern in 2006, his peripherals were very good. A recap of the SL stats: 74+ ip, 66 hits, 4 hrs, 17 bbs, 69 ks. He also averaged 6.2 innings per start. No, he didn't strike out 100 batters, but there was a lot of buzz about him through June and, based on his #s, deservedly so.
   28. 1k5v3L Posted: November 09, 2006 at 01:30 PM (#2233957)
AZ caught a huge break this year with the change in the CBA that allows the team to NOT have to add guys like Reynolds, Ohlendorf, Carter on the 40 man roster or risk losing them in the Rule 5. That's especially key with Reynolds who really needs to be given one position next year and show he can handle it; he claims he likes 2B the most, but from what I've read, scouts don't think he can play there very well--and he's got Hudson and Callaspo ahead of him. Maybe he can get himself in the LF mix but I also doubt it.

Kevin, do you think Reynolds can play 3B, and potentially hit well enough there to give the Dbacks an option in a year or two if Chad Tracy doesn't improve defensively there next year?

Also, I'd appreciate your thoughts on Ohlendorf and Matt Torra. Does it seem like Torra will be able to come back to where he was before the shoulder surgery? Much appreciated.
   29. Rob Base Posted: November 09, 2006 at 01:44 PM (#2233964)
I'm just tired of you two flirting back and forth all the time. Enough is enough. You've thrown enough worms in each other's hair to adequately demonstrate mutual interest, now go and do it or forever hold your peace.

What sort of response do you expect to this, you sniveling internet rodent? If this were real life, the only response would be to ask you to step outside, but I am quite certain that neither of you would so much as look at me funny in person.

I'm done with this thread.
   30. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 09, 2006 at 01:59 PM (#2233974)
Montero can catch, Kottaras is still pretty bad back there.


Well, Kottaras is no Montero, that's for sure, but I think *pretty bad* is an overstatement.

Kottaras reminds me a lot of Jason Kendall without the propensity for being hit by pitches. He's smart, he calls a good game, the pitchers seem to like working with him, and while I agree that he still needs a lot of work behind the plate on footwork and the like, there was a noticeable improvement between Kottaras v 2005 and Kottaras v 2006. I don't know what happened when he went to the Red Sox, and I'm well aware of the hazards of making judgments based on a small sample of games, but I have seen nothing to suggest that Kottaras will not be adequate with the glove.

-- MWE
   31. Dingbat Charlie Posted: November 09, 2006 at 02:30 PM (#2234000)
Montero vs Iannetta - to whom do I direct my undying allegiance?
   32. Azteca Posted: November 09, 2006 at 02:41 PM (#2234011)
Montero vs Iannetta - to whom do I direct my undying allegiance?


I'd take the LH bat. But Iannetta & Montero both had pretty ridiculous minor-league stats last year.
   33. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 09, 2006 at 02:46 PM (#2234014)
"What sort of response do you expect to this, you sniveling internet rodent?"

Either the sound of desperate macking and groping, or the sound of a couple of mouths shutting for a while.

"I'm done with this thread."

Looks like I got my wish!
   34. 1k5v3L Posted: November 09, 2006 at 03:04 PM (#2234030)
From rotoworld

Mark Reynolds-OF- Diamondbacks Nov. 9 - 12:42 pm et

Mark Reynolds homered, doubled and drove in three runs Wednesday for Scottsdale of the AFL.
He also stole his first base. The three RBI pulled him within one of the league lead, held by Chip Cannon at 25. He's batting .342/.418/.633 in 79 at-bats.

***

(ED. rest of comment deleted - MWE)
   35. Kyle S Posted: November 09, 2006 at 03:14 PM (#2234036)
He's batting .342/.418/.633 in 79 at-bats.

Sadly, thats only good for a 97 OPS+ in the AFL...

(just kidding. barely.)
   36. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 09, 2006 at 04:14 PM (#2234099)
I normally don't mind the snark, but this is too much, fellows. Take it to the Lounge.

-- MWE
   37. 1k5v3L Posted: November 09, 2006 at 04:18 PM (#2234103)
Mike, you left Kyle's snarky comment about Reynold's OPS+. I resemble that remark.

Thanks for cleaning up this thread, btw. I'm especially glad you took out your own suggestion that I can't do any intellectual heavy lifting. That hurt. :)
   38. Lefty, Monty, And The Moose (Walewander) Posted: November 09, 2006 at 04:26 PM (#2234113)
I normally don't mind the snark, but this is too much, fellows. Take it to the Lounge.

I'm not insulted as a Lounger, I'm insulted as a comedian.
   39. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: November 09, 2006 at 04:27 PM (#2234117)
Take it to the Lounge.

Hey! We may have snark but we don't get in flamewars.
   40. Lefty, Monty, And The Moose (Walewander) Posted: November 09, 2006 at 04:33 PM (#2234121)
Oh, and where's Maybin and Sanchez? They do OK?
   41. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold Posted: November 09, 2006 at 04:38 PM (#2234124)
Other than those 100, ugly at bats with the BoSox org, he's had a remarkable track-record with his bat. It makes me think, considering Montero's 1/2 year with Tucson, that Zips weighs a player's most-recent year, most heavily.

Kottaras didn't have a bad 100 AB's with Boston. He only played in the playoffs, and he hit pretty well, though I can't find available numbers. The 100 AB's you see is with Portland, the PCL affiliate of the Padres. Not Portland, the double-A affiliate of the Sox.
   42. 1k5v3L Posted: November 09, 2006 at 04:52 PM (#2234131)
Portland, OR, vs. Portland, ME. Even Michael Kay would've gotten confused

***

Carlos Gonzalez-OF- Diamondbacks Nov. 8 - 2:59 pm et

Carlos Gonzalez went 5-for-6 with his first homer and four RBI Tuesday for Zulia of the VWL.
Gonzalez, who could join Chris Young and Carlos Quinton in Arizona's 2008 outfield, upped his average more than 50 points and is now batting .317/.394/.429 in 63 at-bats.
   43. 1k5v3L Posted: November 09, 2006 at 04:55 PM (#2234132)
Oh, and where's Maybin and Sanchez? They do OK?


They will, after they get traded to AZ for 1B slugger and defensive wiz extraordinaire Tony Clark

:)
   44. Kyle S Posted: November 09, 2006 at 05:05 PM (#2234143)
wow, 429 SLG in the VWL. he's really crushing the ball... ;)
   45. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 09, 2006 at 05:06 PM (#2234145)
Trying this again:

We may have snark but we don't get in flamewars.


My apologies to the Loungers. Sometimes I can't tell the difference.

Oh, and where's Maybin and Sanchez? They do OK?


We'll wait until Detroit's prospects are posted.

-- MWE
   46. 1k5v3L Posted: November 09, 2006 at 05:16 PM (#2234162)
He's just getting started, Kyle. Plus, he's only 20 playing with guys several years older. Cut him some slack. At least he appears healthy; he got hit in the neck right before he was promoted to AA, and he ended up having neck and back problems for a while.

Btw, what's up with YOU bashing AZ's prospects now? Are you a closet Mets fan? In bed with Base? :)
   47. rb's team is inventing new ways to lose! Posted: November 09, 2006 at 05:18 PM (#2234164)
I normally don't mind the snark, but this is too much, fellows. Take it to the Lounge.

-- MWE


#### that, the lounge is the most civil place on this site. Don't dump your trash on us.
   48. Rob Base Posted: November 09, 2006 at 05:21 PM (#2234166)
In bed with Base? :)

Do I have to start posting your "please Base don't hurt me" posts again?
   49. Kyle S Posted: November 09, 2006 at 05:25 PM (#2234170)
hey, i like AZ's prospects. its the jealousy coming out.
   50. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: November 09, 2006 at 05:34 PM (#2234177)
Coffee Truck!
   51. Joe Bivens, Ditch Digger Posted: November 09, 2006 at 05:45 PM (#2234186)
I'm not insulted as a Lounger, I'm insulted as a comedian.

You're stuff just doesn't do it for me.
   52. John Brill's #1 Fan (JMN) Posted: November 09, 2006 at 09:32 PM (#2234252)
Hey! We may have snark but we don't get in flamewars.

Are we not snark? We are Devo!
   53. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: November 10, 2006 at 07:57 AM (#2234469)
Heh Snark is all good as long as we dont suddenly and softly vanish and never be met again
   54. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 10, 2006 at 03:50 PM (#2234754)
Braves are up. Saltalamacchia still at #1 indicates just how far this organization has fallen, prospect wise. Harrison was a very ordinary pitcher outside of Coastal Federal Field a year ago. Feliz has raw potential, but is still learning how to pitch. Campbell is a "have bat, need position" kind of player; if he can play 2B he'll be more valuable going forward, but if he can't, we'll have to see whether he has enough bat for a corner. Andrus didn't do badly as an 18-YO player in a full-season league, and I still think he has a lot of upside, but there's nothing to get particularly excited over yet.

-- MWE
   55. 1k5v3L Posted: November 10, 2006 at 11:09 PM (#2235107)
I don't see Van Pope on the list. I thought the Braves were moving Campbell to 2b to make Van Pope their 3Bman of the future. Also, any word on how Campbell has looked defensively at 2B in Hawaii?

I agree with you, Mike. For a system that prides itself on depth AND top talent, the Braves farm looks pretty ordinary right now.
   56. Ignatius J. Reilly Posted: November 10, 2006 at 11:39 PM (#2235120)
Harrison was a very ordinary pitcher outside of Coastal Federal Field a year ago.


I'll take ordinary from a 20/21 year old in AA...
   57. 1k5v3L Posted: November 11, 2006 at 12:39 PM (#2235268)
I'm not sure what the rules here are on posting stuff freely available from milb.com, especially when that same content is "premium" on Bpro, but I figure I'll link it and leave it to Emeigh:

MILB.com: Goldstein: AZ's TOP 10 PROSPECTS
   58. Kyle S Posted: November 11, 2006 at 09:31 PM (#2235545)
our farm system would be fine except that we called up all the guys who should still be down there (mccann, francoeur, etc etc). mccann could have been richmond's starting catcher this year, but he was busy winning the silver slugger. sorry bout that.. :)

I've never even heard of Neftali Feliz before. Anyone care to fill me in?

If Campbell can stick at 2B, he should be in good shape, but i'm skeptical (when we drafted him, people wondered if he'd stick at THIRD... hmmm).

Andrus didn't even turn 18 until August, so last year was his age 17 season. I'm still optimistic. He may not be as good a hitter as Tabata or F-Martinez, but he has a long way to fall on the defensive spectrum before that matters.
   59. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold Posted: November 11, 2006 at 09:37 PM (#2235551)
Andrus didn't even turn 18 until August, so last year was his age 17 season. I'm still optimistic. He may not be as good a hitter as Tabata or F-Martinez, but he has a long way to fall on the defensive spectrum before that matters.

No to mention that barring some unforeseen change, he won't be falling on the defensive spectrum, thus always giving him that advantage over Martinez and Tabata. I still love Andrus and think he'll be a big time player.
   60. Kyle S Posted: November 11, 2006 at 09:41 PM (#2235556)
so what can you tell me about "neftali feliz" (that sounds like a randomly generated name from triple play 2005) templeusox?
   61. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold Posted: November 11, 2006 at 09:55 PM (#2235564)
Great arm. About as good as you can ask for. Easy low-to-mid 90's heat. I think he throws a slider too, but it's not very good right now. He had very good stuff in the GCL, but he was also hit around a little when he left the ball up in the zone (27% LD% higher than league average). That's unsurprising for an inexperienced player. He's still somewhat of a project, and as mentioned earlier needs some work with his breaking pitches. But he has about as good an arm as you can wish to work with.
   62. 1k5v3L Posted: November 11, 2006 at 10:25 PM (#2235584)
so what can you tell me about "neftali feliz"


In 12 months, he's got a chance to be a year older :)

I'd never heard of him. Sounds like the next coming of Jose Capellan... (sorry, low blow)
   63. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold Posted: November 12, 2006 at 12:04 AM (#2235625)
I'd never heard of him.

To be fair, he isn't on the Sox, Yankees, or Mets. So there would be no reason for you to know him.
   64. 1k5v3L Posted: November 12, 2006 at 12:08 AM (#2235626)
OK, another low blow. I actually know the Braves system a lot better than I know the Yankees or Red Sox. I'm pretty much a NL only guy
   65. Kyle S Posted: November 12, 2006 at 02:58 AM (#2235664)
jose capellan? don't regret trading him at all, just wish we'd gotten more in return :)
   66. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: November 13, 2006 at 12:07 PM (#2236403)
Interesting choices here..maybe it is the potential versus performance argument.
Locke is ranked in the top 10, despite a hit an inning performance, but Gunderson gets no mention. Though I guess he is slotted as a reliever.

No mention of Jo Jo Reyes or Jamie Richmond? or Kala Kaihuie..
Beau Jones has absolutely fallen off the radar ( not surprising, but he had some injury issues. He might have a big bounce back year ).
Rasmus was shut down with elbow tendinitis. Anyone has any more news on him?
Also Coe got off to a hot start before cooling down. Think he should rank over Fontaine, who walk a LOT but showed no power.
   67. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: November 13, 2006 at 12:08 PM (#2236404)
And I forgot Yunel Escobar!
   68. Kyle S Posted: November 13, 2006 at 12:09 PM (#2236405)
gunderson's stuff is absolutely garbage. he was throwing 84mph fbs in the college world series.
   69. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: November 13, 2006 at 12:15 PM (#2236412)
gunderson's stuff is absolutely garbage. he was throwing 84mph fbs in the college world series.

I watched the CWS, and he was not exactly throwing slop. But towards the end he was, but then consider how much he was worked in the CWS.
   70. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: November 13, 2006 at 12:22 PM (#2236415)
Another thing about JoJo Reyes is that he had pretty even splits between road and home games, so wasn't helped by cavernous home park that much
   71. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 13, 2006 at 12:43 PM (#2236433)
It's just crazy how stacked Arizona is right now.
   72. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 13, 2006 at 02:02 PM (#2236490)
Jo-Jo probably should be a top-10 guy; I'd certainly put him ahead of Lerew at this stage. The #1 issue with Reyes is conditioning; he's got the David Wells/Sid Fernandez frame going.

Richmond's going to have to prove himself at every level, because he's not overpowering and his secondary pitches aren't especially strong. He hasn't pitched in a full-season league yet, and until he does, I'd be inclined to be conservative with projecting him forward; his profile right now is that of a marginal starter/reliever.

-- MWE
   73. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: November 13, 2006 at 02:05 PM (#2236492)

Richmond's going to have to prove himself at every level, because he's not overpowering and his secondary pitches aren't especially strong. He hasn't pitched in a full-season league yet, and until he does, I'd be inclined to be conservative with projecting him forward; his profile right now is that of a marginal starter/reliever


I don't disagree, but I thought he might have been worth a mention for his rookie league year. certainly more than Lerew, who for some reason I just can't stand the sight off anymore. Incidentally that low K rate shouldn't be that big an issue. he was an extreme groundball pitcher..
   74. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 13, 2006 at 02:51 PM (#2236551)
Incidentally that low K rate shouldn't be that big an issue. he was an extreme groundball pitcher..


I'm not talking just about the K rate, though - I'm talking more about the overall quality of his pitches. Richmond tops out around 90 with the fastball, and his breaking and offspeed pitches are just ordinary. He's gotten by keeping the ball down and not walking *anyone*, and it's worked so far - but it will have to continue to work.

-- MWE
   75. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: November 13, 2006 at 06:23 PM (#2236884)
Thanks Mike.
Been awhile since the Braves have touted up a prospect and pawned him off on some team. Miss the good ol days!
where would Max Ramirez have ranked on that list?
   76. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 14, 2006 at 10:30 AM (#2237417)
where would Max Ramirez have ranked on that list?


Behind the top 6 for sure, about even with Devine, maybe slightly ahead.

Ramirez is 22 and hasn't seen high-A yet. He's hit the ball consistently well, but there are questions about his defense behind the plate.

-- MWE
   77. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 15, 2006 at 02:11 PM (#2238741)
Cubs are up.

I like Donnie Veal. Really. But I can't see jumping him ahead of Pie or Patterson at this stage.

-- MWE
   78. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: November 15, 2006 at 02:39 PM (#2238773)
Any chance that the Cubs can hold onto Samarsdija..or however his name is spelt? He is having a decent season for ND.
Pawelek gets a low rating due to injury?
This farm looks thin for such a hyped up system not so long ago.
   79. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: November 15, 2006 at 02:58 PM (#2238790)
Sorry for posting this here, but I can't find the minor league FA list.
Shanks is saying Matt Wright ( who was Braves' pitcher of the year ) went to the Royals..I know the Royals picked up some Brave pitcher, but I thought it wasn't Wright. Anyone can shed light on this?
   80. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:08 PM (#2238799)
I expect that Samardzija will pitch at Peoria and maybe Daytona this season, and then we will see what happens. The probability that he'll remain a Cub is probably inversely proportional to the round in which he's selected in the NFL draft.

Pawelek hasn't been hurt, as far as I know; the Cubs are just being very careful with him.

The farm is thin, especially at the upper levels.

-- MWE
   81. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:16 PM (#2238802)
The Royals did indeed sign Wright:

Minor League Tranny List.

-- MWE
   82. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:23 PM (#2238811)
Thanks Mike and double damn.

I am starting not like Dayton Moore that much
   83. Randy Jones Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:46 PM (#2238822)
I expect that Samardzija will pitch at Peoria and maybe Daytona this season, and then we will see what happens. The probability that he'll remain a Cub is probably inversely proportional to the round in which he's selected in the NFL draft.

Samardzija still claims he wants to play both sports. Depending on which junior WR's declare for the draft, he is probably an early 2nd round pick.
   84. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 17, 2006 at 02:07 PM (#2240517)
Reds are up. No real surprises here.

The top of the organization is very strong (Bailey, Bruce, Votto) but the quality falls off *very* quickly once you get past the cream.

-- MWE
   85. battlekow Posted: November 18, 2006 at 04:27 PM (#2241213)
Drew Stubbs is really a "Good" prospect?
   86. 1k5v3L Posted: November 19, 2006 at 01:30 PM (#2241542)
In his last 10 games in Winter Ball, Carlos Gonzalez is hitting .400 (16 for 40) with 4 doubles, 2 homers, 10 RBI and 7 BB vs 0 (zero!) K.

Take that, Kyle S! :P
   87. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 19, 2006 at 06:16 PM (#2241732)
Drew Stubbs is really a "Good" prospect?


A 21-YO who posted a .768 OPS in rookie-level ball? Why not?

I really thought Stubbs was overdrafted, and so far he's done nothing to change my mind.

-- MWE
   88. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 23, 2006 at 12:20 PM (#2244696)
Rockies are up.

I like Morales, but until he manages to get his walk rate under control I see him as clearly behind Iannetta and Fowler.

Fowler took a couple of big steps forward in 2006. The big one was cutting his strikeout rate in half, and 31 doubles in 99 games was nice to see as well; it looks as though he's getting more comfortable switch-hitting. The question with him is whether he can stay healthy for a full season.

Lindsay was supposed to pitch in Hawaii, but he got hurt.

-- MWE
   89. philly Posted: November 23, 2006 at 12:54 PM (#2244712)
Mike

Do you have any thoughts on Seth Smith? I know he's not a likely top 10 prospect in a pretty good Rockie system, but Goldstein mentioned about 10 other solid guys just off the top 10 and never mentioned Smith. Unless it was an oversight that was pretty surprising to me.

As a former college qb he supposedly has pretty good athleticism. There were some questions about his effort and defensive routes in 2005, but supposedly a stern kick in the pants and laser surgery improved both areas in 2006.

His offense has been pretty average - especially 2005 in the CAL - and so far he's mostly been a doubles hitter (91 2B vs 24 HR the last two years). Fwiw, he had a big second half last year - ~320/400/520 over his final two months. He also improved his BB and K numbers quite a bit from 44 and 115 in 533 AB in 2005 to 51 and 74 in 524 AB.

Does he have a shot to pull a Josh Fields kind of a breakout season next year in AAA?
   90. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 23, 2006 at 01:44 PM (#2244730)
Do you have any thoughts on Seth Smith?


He's one of my sleeper prospects. That article should be up this weekend.

Does he have a shot to pull a Josh Fields kind of a breakout season next year in AAA?


Absolutely.

-- MWE
   91. Good Night Moon Posted: November 28, 2006 at 03:10 PM (#2247607)
Lindsay was supposed to pitch in Hawaii, but he got hurt.


This is a bit of an understatement. He was shut down with tightness from a torn labrum that he pitched all season with and had to undergo surgery to repair it and won't pitch at all in 2007. I think his status as a prospect right now has to be considered very much in doubt. I think you're spot on concerning Smith, he's often overlooked but has quite a bit of potential still.
   92. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 28, 2006 at 05:02 PM (#2247709)
Marlins are up, and it's a free article.

West and Tucker over Volstad, Hernandez, and Thompson is a real surprise to me, as is the absence of Gaby Sanchez. Tucker needs two pitches to come around, not one - yes, he's got the upper-90s fastball, but neither the slider nor the change is anywhere close to what it needs to be. Goldstein notes that Tucker's command got better as the season went on, and it did - but his strikeouts dropped, too.

One of the things that struck me about Florida's young arms is how hittable they *all* were. Goldstein expresses surprise at how hittable Volstad was, but all of the top six had BABIP over .300.

-- MWE
   93. il returno de CC Posted: November 28, 2006 at 05:22 PM (#2247728)
Is Yusmeiro Petit out of the picture already? I know he had a down year, but he wasn't that bad for a 21-year-old in Albequerque, and his numbers were obviously phenomenal before that. . .

~ C
   94. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 28, 2006 at 07:13 PM (#2247865)
Is Yusmeiro Petit out of the picture already?


Petit isn't a 2007 rookie; he had too much service time in 2006. BA ignores the service time limit for prospects (so Petit is still eligible for their list) but I'm not sure Goldstein does.

-- MWE
   95. il returno de CC Posted: November 28, 2006 at 07:32 PM (#2247888)
I don't see the point of excluding someone like Petit from prospect list consideration. The question isn't usually "who's going to win the ROY next season," but "which players who aren't yet major league regulars are likely to have the best career?"

Obviously there has to be a line somewhere, and the playing time ROY qualifications is arguably as good as any. That still doesn't justify adopting the ROY service time limit, though; it's not as if we have a better read on Petit because he spent six weeks rotting on the Marlins bench than we would if he'd been in the Albequerque rotation the entire time.

~ C
   96. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 28, 2006 at 09:21 PM (#2248017)
I don't see the point of excluding someone like Petit from prospect list consideration.


I don't typically do it, either. But I'm not going to argue that it's wrong to do it that way, and it's not as though slotting Petit in on this list (between 5-7, if I were doing it; he's not a whole lot different than Thompson or Hernandez, IMO, and he's above VandenHurk at this stage) is going to make a whole lot of difference.

-- MWE
   97. KevinGoldstein Posted: November 28, 2006 at 11:05 PM (#2248100)
Petit was eligible for me, but he finished just out of the picture (as did Sanchez). Petit's low stuff/high deception combination was always a concern for me, and I believe the wall we saw him hit this year both at Triple-A and in the majors was unfortunately very real. For the most part, both scouts and the people within the Marlins organization I spoke to tended to agree. Sanchez was also just on the outside for me -- I don't think he's capable of playing anything other than first base defensively, which obviously really limits him.

Also just missing were Chris Coghlan (moving to second base help him), along with fireballers Matt Lindstrom (a little too old, FB a little too straight for me) and Jesus Delgado.

KG
   98. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 30, 2006 at 08:35 PM (#2248695)
Astros are up. Der-K will be happy to see that J.R. Towles made the top 10.

Bogusevic looked like he was finally getting his act together at the end of the season, after being brutalized for most of his minor league career. His last regular-season outing was a gem: 6 IP, 2 hits, 1 BB, and 6 Ks. He did have a huge home-road split (and threw most of his innings on the road), and lefty hitters just smacked him around; he's going to have to find something that works consistently against LHB.

Surprised (a bit) that Koby's not on the bottom of the list, given how weak the organization is at the top. I like Paulino's stuff, but he took a step backward a year ago IMO (although Salem's not especially easy on pitchers), and I'm not sure he's got enough strength/stamina to be a starter in the majors. Koby didn't hit for average, but he drew walks, made contact fairly consistently, and showed decent power for a 19-YO guy in full-season. Josh Flores is another guy who has a chance to do something, although he's going to have to make better contact.

-- MWE
   99. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:30 AM (#2248999)
Heck, I'm impressed that you remember that I like him.
   100. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 01, 2006 at 03:00 PM (#2249204)
Dodgers are up.

Kershaw #1? That's a lot of forward projection there in an organization that has a good number of candidates for the position of #1 prospect. Kershaw has a high ceiling, to be sure, and you gotta love 54/5 K/BB in 37 innings, but I can't see jumping him over Elbert and LaRoche this early in his career. Let's see if he can get through a 150-IP log in a full-season league without being hurt first. The Dodgers aren't exactly known for keeping their pitching prospects healthy. I think Bell at #6 is too high, also - he's an "old" 19 (turned 20 in November) and hasn't played an inning in a full-season league yet, and his strikeout rate this year jumped into the unacceptable range (72 in 250 AB, in a friendly environment in Ogden).

Meloan (who probably should have started 2006 at Vero Beach) jumped on to a lot of radar screens this year, dominating at three levels and in the AFL. He might be the next Gagne for the Dodgers.

-- MWE
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