Petit was eligible for me, but he finished just out of the picture (as did Sanchez). Petit's low stuff/high deception combination was always a concern for me, and I believe the wall we saw him hit this year both at Triple-A and in the majors was unfortunately very real. For the most part, both scouts and the people within the Marlins organization I spoke to tended to agree.


How Petit has fallen. If I were in charge, I'd still give Petit a shot. He doesn't throw hard enough to strike out as many hitters as he did in the low minors. But I would expect someone like Petit to struggle in their first couple of seasons in the majors, as hitters will be more disciplined and intelligent in their approach at the plate.

Once Petit figures out what he can get away with and what pitches will be crushed at the big league level, I think he'll be a solid starter. His control is too good and he *does* have good stuff, just doesn't have the fastball to make it really effective.

Meloan (who probably should have started 2006 at Vero Beach) jumped on to a lot of radar screens this year

Meloan was hurt at the beginning of the year and they wanted to slowly bring him along. I think thats one reason he started out in the pen.

Also another tidbit, Meloan is young for a big program college draftee. this past season was only his age age 21 season.

Also another tidbit, Meloan is young for a big program college draftee. this past season was only his age 21 season.

Meloan's an old 21; his birthday is July 11, just past the "age cutoff" date. He threw more innings as a 22-YO this year.

-- MWE

Did Gabby Hernandez make that list for the Marlins?

He's 5th on the list, filed under "Good Prospect."

Thanks.

Brewers are up. Jeffress over Inman is a bit silly, given that Goldstein admits "Jeffress is nothing more than a raw arm right now." The omission of Angel Salome is a bit puzzling as well. I'd also have though Goldstein would prefer Charlie Fermaint to Chris Errecart. Rogers should probably be moved down to "Good" (at the least) after having shoulder surgery.

Mets are up, and it's a freebie.

Goldstein rates both Martinez and Humber ahead of Pelfrey. I can see the argument for Humber ahead of Pelfrey, but I think I'd like to be sure that Humber's going to stay healthy before doing that.

I'm not a big Soler fan - I'm not even sure he's a top-10 prospect in this organization, let alone #5.

-- MWE

Humber ahead of Pelfrey? It's funny- Humber and Pelfrey's names have been thrown out as possible chips in a Vernon Wells trade. I'd be very pleased about Pelfrey and quite disappointed if Humber came north.

Finally, we come to the Mets.

I have to turn in something today, so I'll be brief. First, I'm always amazed at how rankings for prospects change *from the end of the season to the middle of winter with the prospects themselves doing practically nothing.* It tells you how much of this is psychological - our expectations projected on our own perceptions, and how they change based on discussions with each other and balancing that with the perception at large. I swear that Carlos Gomez has shuttled up and down the rankings without even picking up a glove or bat, based on nothing more than what people say about him.

Notes:
Fernando Martinez is clearly the jewel of the organization. I'm glad that Goldstein sees that too. I think his ceiling will be decided by his attitude, whether he's interested in improving day-to-day, year-to-year. Frankly, he has no physical limits.

Humber vs. Pelfrey is like Mozart vs. Beethoven, it's strictly a matter of taste and style. Personally, I love the 95+ cutting fastball. It simplifies the pitching game so much. I wouldn't trade Pelfrey for nearly anything - not because I think he's better than the pitchers that he could be bait for - but simply from a personal standpoint of intrigue. I want to see what Pelfrey becomes.

Wow, Kevin really likes Soler. Sam is going to be so mad. I like Soler too. He needs to throw a little harder - his reputation when he was signed was that he could throw in the mid-90s. I've heard that he could get it up there in the low 90s in the minors. Everyone has to remember that he took a 2 year hiatus, so he may still be rounding back into form.

Guerra's going to be special to watch. Impossible to project, but 18 yo at high A after dominating low A at 17? Apparently has quite an arsenal already. *Needs to add MPH to his fastball to be elite.

Carp is going to be real good. I'll come back to this later today.

I think Joe Smith is going to be real good too. I'm curious to see what his stats will be like this year, but I wouldn't be surprised if he simply overmatches the league.

Gomez - every scout loves his tools, huh? I want to see this guy live in spring training.

This farm is so top-heavy right now. The prospects all have high ceilings. But Minaya and the FO have to continue working to keep it going year in and year out. Grade A job so far.

Wow, Kevin really likes Soler. Sam is going to be so mad.

Mad? Nope. I just don't take it seriously, that's all. The idea that he's a better or more valuable prospect than Guerra, Carp, and Mulvey in particular is not one I credit at all.

There is an argument there, I concede: if you want to discount his 2006 major league performance, as some have, then you can see potential still there. And there is a basis for that POV. I don't happen to buy it, so I see "no prospect." We shall see. Soler probably is rated about right if the list is "Mets' prospects most likely to contribute something to the 2007 Mets" -- but then, if that's the list, then F-Mart and probably Humber are rated way too high.

IMO, Soler could be a good pitcher if he had a better fastball because he has nice offspeed stuff. His minor league numbers indicate he has control so it might be that he was afraid to challenge hitters with his fastball which was mostly 86-88. If he regains some of that velocity after the layoff and his fastball stays in 88-92 range, Soler could be a nice starting pitcher. I don't know if he has that ability or not.

I pretty much agree with Sam on Soler. I just don't see where Soler is likely to get much better than he is right now, and what he is right now is a fringe major league starter. I'd much rather have any one of the five players below him.

-- MWE

Goldstein seems to like Mulvey, which is encouraging. Mulvey's college stats didn't seem that impressive to me, but if Goldstein thinks that

-" Has four quality pitches with low-90s fastball, good slider and solid curve and changeup. Throws strikes and goes after hitters."

That's a pretty good arsenal and attitude to have. I hope Mulvey does well, but he'll probably always be in the shadow of Pelfrey and Humber.

Also, if I had to guess, Goldstein probably would have put Flores at #8 - ahead of Carp but behind Mulvey.

Do you know where Mulvey is from? He'll be fine.

Mulvey was from Villanova.

I'm not too high on Soler either. It wouldn't kill me to see him get a start or two if someone is needed to fill in, but I'd have him around 8 or 9 on the depth charts and I'd be surprised if he ever became a regular starter for the Mets or anyone else, really.

He's from Jersey.

Phillies and Pirates are up.

Both Sickels and Goldstein have Kyle Drabek at #2, despite a professional debut that was far less than expected. I suspect that's as much a matter of the lack of depth in the rest of the organization as it is about Drabek.

Goldstein comments on Drabek:

This will either be the steal of the draft or a total bust – it's hard to see a lot of scenarios that are in between.

and I think that's an accurate assessment. I have absolutely no clue which way he'll go.

Pittsburgh's system, except for McCutchen, isn't likely to deliver an impact player any time soon. It's also notable that the system is heavy in pitchers and up-the-middle players, with nothing on the corners (exactly where the Pirates need the most help). I've discussed the reasons for that ad nauseam; it is aggravating that in every off-season, the Pirates are looking for power bats on the corners yet adamantly refuse to draft any.

-- MWE

I think Soler is the Cuban Roger Clemens.

I think Soler is the Cuban Roger Clemens.

I'm trying to figure out the alternate universe in which this comment makes sense. Soler has nothing close to Clemens's velocity *or* movement on his other pitches.

-- MWE

In the White Sox breakdown just posted, Goldstein has the following to say about John Danks:

The Bad: Danks has an annoying habit of getting hit hard initially after each promotion and needing to adjust each time. His fastball can be a little too true and he has a tendency to work high in the zone, which has led to an elevated home run rate.
The Irrelevant: ERA in first seven Pacific Coast League starts: 5.97. ERA in last seven: 2.75.

Explain how "The Irrelevant" is, in fact, irrelevant, especially coming after the observation that Danks initially struggles at each new level.