Highlights from John Manuel chat on AZL:

The AZL wasn't especially deep in talent this year.

Brandon Morrow (Mariners) would have ranked just ahead of Jeffress had he pitched enough in the league; Chris Tillman (Mariners) would have ranked just behind Jeffress, and Jeff Bianchi (Royals) would have been top-5 as well. Chris Huseby (Cubs) would have been in the top 10.

Manuel believes that complex-level conditions (weather, lack of crowds, etc.) make it rough for the HS kids, especially those coming from the big-time programs.

He compared Conger to Jason Varitek rather than Mauer or I-Rod in terms of his skill set - not the physical talent of Joe or Pudge, but a hard worker who will likely get the most out of his skills.

-- MWE

Conger had one of the best looking swings in the first round. It will be interesting to see how he progresses.

it still kills me the braves passed up conger for cody '.184/.260/.281' johnson. MG2, please get a job with the org! PLEASE! :)

I have a good video comparison of Cody Johnson and Hank Conger that will most likely be up in the bullpen mechanics blog (hopefully not too distant future)...


anybody know how conger lasted until the 25th pick?

According to this he was the top power hitting high schooler in the country and I haven't seen anything (although I've nly searced brielfy) that indicates him being a 'Piazza' behind the plate.

as MG2 and I will probably agree, comparing Varitek's butt-ugly swing to Conger's is pretty insulting. If he is indeed a hard worker, that's a great plus.

yeah I read that about the Varitek comp. I will call no comment on the aesthetics of Varitek's swing. I've seen him workout in Atlanta a number of times and he appears to do quite a bit to get himself ready, not to mention being overly friendly to us 'normal people' that were hanging around.

actually Conger's righty swing looks quite a bit like David Wright. I have conger-wright-cody johnson side by side and looks like this might be about time to post it. I suppose I should get to work on putting some commentary together....

anybody know how conger lasted until the 25th pick?

There were some concerns about his ability to stay behind the plate. The BA scouting report compared him to Daric Barton, with more power and less raw hitting ability.

Teams may also be starting to grow wary, not without reason, of drafting HS catchers in the first round. For every Mauer, there's a high-profile failure. Neil Walker has been slow to develop and has had some injury problems. Brandon Snyder struggled this year at Aberdeen and Delmarva. Jon Poterson, who the Yankees drafted with a supplemental first round pick in 2004, is going nowhere fast. Barton had to be moved off catcher, and his development has slowed due to injury. Saltalamacchia stalled this year as well.

-- MWE

as MG2 and I will probably agree, comparing Varitek's butt-ugly swing to Conger's is pretty insulting.

Manuel's comment was probably not meant as a direct "style" comparison, along the line of "this is the type of player that he is" - e.g. not supremely talented athletically like Mauer or Pudge, more of a grinder like Varitek is. I tend to talk in that kind of shorthand, too.

-- MWE

I don't want to get into a debate about Salty Dog, but his final stats should be taken with a few grains of salt. I'm relatively certain that he played through a hand/wrist injury in May and June and could not hit the ball a lick. After taking some time off he returned in July and August to rake. Apparently his defense improved over the course of the year. He drew 55 walks in 313 at bats with a 273 secondary average. The Southern League BABIP was 305 and Salty's was 270. Correct me if I am wrong, but the the MBraves home park and the Southern League as a whole is somewhat pitcher friendly.

Certainly not a succesful season, but there are enough positives to keep the faith...

Highlights from Allan Matthews chat on GCL:

Felix Doubront (Red Sox) was just outside the top 20, largely because his stuff was inconsistent and he had trouble keeping the ball down (he allowed 6 HRs, worst in the GCL).

Dellin Betances (Yankees) was just outside the top 5. His command improved over the year, but he still needs to get comfortable with his mechanics and find a consistent release point.

Kershaw will definitely wind up top-10 for the Dodgers, perhaps top 5, although he's behind Scott Elbert overall.

Cody Johnson (Braves) might need to improve the mental aspect of his game - some thought that he might be pressing and that he needs to learn to relax.

Adrian Cardenas (Phillies) probably won't be able to stay at shortstop; he lacks lateral quickness and footwork.

Kyle Drabek (Phillies) has a hard time handling failure (which happened in abundance for him in the GCL) - he has to learn how to suck it up and make adjustments when things aren't going well.

-- MWE

Jon Poterson, who the Yankees drafted with a supplemental first round pick in 2004, is going nowhere fast.

Uggh. That was one pick I absolutely hated the second it was made. I know Poterson wowed them with a batting practice display of power, but it's never translated to actual games. That's the only draft pick I actually criticize as I really don't think there was any justification for it.

I was very happy to see the comments on Betances, as it sounds like he was quite a bit better than they expected this year. Obviously with a guy that big it's a longshot -- moreso than usual -- that he can put everything together, but I have a lot of hopes he and Garcia will become top pitching prospects this year. McAllister seems like a good sleeper with a great sinker and a good pitcher's frame. I hope he can develop into a Clippard level prospect as he works on his secondary stuff.

From a prospect hound Red Sox fan on one of the Yankees board I visit, he says Jason Place reminds scouts a lot of Jeff Francoeur with better plate discipline. Is this accurate on how toolsy he is?

Yea, but he has less athleticism.

I also want to add that the Sox got completed dicked in these rankings. It basically comes down to who the writer wants to put in, and he will edit his prose around that. A player is inconsistent if Matthews doesn't want him in, but she shows "flashes" if he does want him in.

The fact that Matthews in his chat talks about Luis Soto as a "middle-infielder who shows good actions" illustrates the level of aptitude he has about the specifics of the league. First, Soto's limited playing time on the GCL Sox was due solely to the fact that he was there on a short rehab stint before going back to Greenville. He talks about him as if he was assigned there. Second, he hasn't played infield since 2004.

I also want to add that the Sox got completed dicked in these rankings.

Doubront and Egan had good arguments for being top-20. Chih-Hsien Chiang, the 18-YO SS from Taiwan, also played well, and wasn't embarrassed in nine late-season games at Lowell.

-- MWE

I also want to add that the Sox got completed dicked in these rankings. It basically comes down to who the writer wants to put in, and he will edit his prose around that. A player is inconsistent if Matthews doesn't want him in, but she shows "flashes" if he does want him in.

The fact that Matthews in his chat talks about Luis Soto as a "middle-infielder who shows good actions" illustrates the level of aptitude he has about the specifics of the league. First, Soto's limited playing time on the GCL Sox was due solely to the fact that he was there on a short rehab stint before going back to Greenville. He talks about him as if he was assigned there. Second, he hasn't played infield since 2004.

I don't know the Sox farm as well as the Yankees, so I can't say whether they got dicked or not, but this list and the commentary does show some of the holes in the coverage that BA has. Angel Reyes not making the list...I understand that he's an small lefty, but he still throws low 90s and touches mid 90s and dominated the league and did well in the NYPL. There's also the issue of calling McCallister's secondary stuff iffy when what I've heard, primarily from scout.com, is that his changeup in particular is pretty good or citing Betances for inconsistency when previous reports I've come across state the opposite as do his numbers. We'll see.

Teams may also be starting to grow wary, not without reason, of drafting HS catchers in the first round. For every Mauer, there's a high-profile failure.

Not having studied it myself, but one article I read about Mauer asserted that Mauer aside, EVERY high profile HS catcher drafted in the 1st round has been a bust...

The Salty dog will prove that aphorism wrong (I hope!). McCann was drafted in the second round and he's not doing too shabby either :)

Taking the top spot in both the GCL and pioneer league, the dodgers once again have some stud arms coming up through the system (although im a bit suprised Morris and Bell actually came in at #1 and #2. Thoughts on both of them from Mike and other people here?)

which is nice since it seems their failure rates are pretty high. More is welcomed!

Mike, yes, my comp of Conger to Varitek was not one of style but one of substance and future production. He's got similar makeup, but he probably does have more upside offensively. I don't think it's fair to comp any HS catcher to Mauer, or Ivan Rodriguez. I'm a huge fan of Conger's swing and offensive potential as well.

"Not having studied it myself, but one article I read about Mauer asserted that Mauer aside, EVERY high profile HS catcher drafted in the 1st round has been a bust..."

Thats hard to say because there are so few guys drafted as catchers in the 1st (and supp 1st) round so its hard to get many data points.

Going from the 93-03 drafts I count only 12 HS catchers and 5 collegians. Note these are guys listed as catchers WHEN drafted so guys like Konerko and Munson count but guys like Joe Lawrence and Josh Mckinley (HS IFs that flashed offensive potential and were moved to C and busted) are not.

Jayson Werth 97 - Decent, moved off catcher. Talented but injury prone.
Ramon Castro 94 - Fringe MLer, now solid backup C.
Paul Konerko 94 - Star, but non-catcher
Mark Johnson 94 - ex-stathead fave, Fringe MLer
Ben Davis 95 - Poor, but had a career
Jeff Winchester 98 - Nothing, couldn't hit, out of Rockies org before 25
Ryan Christianson 99 - Nothing, showed potential but ruined by injuries
Nick Trezezniak 99 - Nothing
Scott Heard 00 - Nothing, couldnt hit.
Joe Mauer 01 - Superstar and a catcher
Saltalmaccia 03 - Star potential but has issues. Jury still out
Daric Barton 03 - Ditto, though much less likely to be a C than Salty. Jury still out

College:
Veritek 94 - Somewhere between star and solid regular. Good catcher defensively.
LeCroy 97 - Decent, not really a catcher. Moved off C before career started.
Eric Munson 99 - Poor, but has had a career, though not a catcher til 06
Jeremy Brown 02 - Hasnt made bigs yet. Looks like fringe MLer at best.
Mitch Maier 03 - Wont be a C, but athletic and bat could be something. Jury still out

Note-I used baseball-cube which isnt always the most accurate. For example Astros RHP pick Robert Stiehl was listed as a C in there and Veritek was listed as an OF.

I think these lists look reasonably similar in quality. I did some really back of the napkin stuff assigning an arbitrary quality number to each player and averaged out very close to the same...slight edge to collegians.

Obviously thats no kind of real analysis there but it confirms my eyeballing, and im not going to really analyze it hardcore right now

Basically picking a catcher PERIOD is risky, but since its hard to find a quality catcher it also makes finding even a decent one a pretty high upside pick. Also, it seems to me that Latin countries are dominating catcher production for whatever reason.

If youre looking for catching in your org foreign scouting seems to be the way to go, since you can get more talented kids for less (though prices are much higher than they were a decade or 2 or 3 ago) to help with the attrition problem. But I'd still prefer drafting 5 catchers to find one decent one then going by the FA route. Catchers hit the bigs later, are older when they hit FA and, of course, age poorly so id be hesitant about investing too many years and dollars in one even though there are several solid starting Cs around baseball right now aquirred through FA.

The fact that there are non-first round sucess stories like McCann shows that it is perfectly possible to draft and develop catching. The talent is out there, you just need to find it. Like any pick, you just need to have good developmental staff and good scouting to pick the right now. If you have any faith in your org why not draft a catcher if you really believe in him as the right pick?

Comments from Bryan Smith of BA on the Pioneer prospects:

Drew Stubbs (Reds) didn't quiet the naysayers much at all. He still has to show that he can make consistent contact (64 Ks in 254 PAs isn't exactly a sign of progress).

Smith expects Morris will get to High A by midseason next year.

Kyle McCulloch (White Sox) would have been top-3 had he qualified; Brent Fisher (Royals) would have been top-10.

Gomez could push Tulowitzki at some point, although Gomez has already been tried at other positions.

Josh Bell has been compared to Bobby Bonilla. Personally, I'm not sure that's a good thing for Bell, if the comparison is to what Bonilla became when the Pirates got good. The younger Bonilla was an outstanding athlete who had good contact skills; the power stroke came later.

Matt Murton is a good comp for Cole Gillespie (Brewers). Personally, I think Gillespie's got more upside than Murton - he seems to me to be more athletic with better foot speed and possibly better power, although I think the basic comp to Murton is accurate as far as it goes.

The Pioneer was pretty deep although the top wasn't as good as the GCL; there were a bunch of guys who could have slotted into the 15-20 range. Rowdy Hardy (Royals) was not one of them, even with his outstanding numbers; he is a finesse guy and doesn't project to add much velocity.

-- MWE

I drafted Lincecum and Conger in a recent diamondmind league draft based on what the mechanics guys wrote about here. Even if they don't work out I enjoyed the insight and feel like I got some good "inside" information. Thanks for the great work.

From the GCL, #19 Carlos Monasterios is listed as a Yankee. I believe he was dealt to Philly in the Bobby Abreu deal.

Off topic: Dodgers' LaRoche has a torn labrum..

CBW, there's some video of Jeremy Jeffress pitching in a real game in the AFL on this blog. Do you think you could take a look at it and let us know what you think? It doesn't look good to me. Rather than following through and letting his legs absorb the force of the delivery, he seems to decelerate his arm by pulling his body upright and letting the arm slap against his side or his leg.

EVERY high profile HS catcher drafted in the 1st round has been a bust...

Mike Leiberthal had a pretty good career.

Appy chat comments from Matt Eddy:

No indication on who - if anyone - will take over Pulaski's affiliation from the Blue Jays. It could be a co-op situation, where several teams provide players, although MLB frowns on co-ops.

There's little chance that Billy Rowell will move back to shortstop; if anything, he'll move to a less demanding position.

Emmanuel Garcia (Mets) doesn't have a great arm, and thus could eventually move off SS, but not right now.

The Blue Jays' new minor league lineup might make it difficult for them to assign two of their most interesting young prospect, 17-YO OF Yohermyn Chavez, who held his own at Pulaski, and 16-YO 3B Balbino Fuenmayor, a recent international sign (Venezuela). Chavez is probably not ready for full-season ball, and will likely wind up at short-season Auburn next year.

And a comment from me:

I don't quite understand why Jamie Richmond ranks #5 on the list, and Blake King #12 (actually, I do understand why - I just don't agree). Richmond pitched extremely well, of course, but his fastball isn't great (plus movement but average velocity) and his secondary pitches need work. He could struggle at higher levels. King's got better raw stuff and was much less hittable than Richmond, although his command needs tightening (it wasn't terrible, even so). Usually - not always, but usually - you'd rather have the guy with the better quality pitches under these circumstances.

-- MWE

Mike Leiberthal had a pretty good career.

Paul Konerko has too, albeit not as a catcher. But the general point is still valid. Since Lieberthal was drafted in 1990, Mauer and Jason Kendall are the "only" catchers drafted out of HS in the first round to have significant success as a catcher in the majors.

-- MWE

19. Nevin Ashley, c, Princeton (Devil Rays)

B-T: R-R Ht: 6-2 Wt: 210 Age: 229 Drafted: Devil Rays '06 (6)

After finishing second in the Missouri Valley Conference batting race with a .382 average, Ashley figured to tear up the Appy League—and he did by hitting .333 and leading the league with a .440 on-base percentage. The oldest player on this list, ...

I know its a misprint but this was just funny. Ashley was an old man when Abner Doubleday first laid out the bases. Good to see he didn't give up his dream.

John Manuel chat highlights on the NY-P prospects:

While Sapp did have his problems at the plate for Tri-City (couple of people didn't believe he was ranked #4 with his numbers), one has to remember that he was young for the NY-P (just turned 18 in February). He was outstanding at nabbing basestealers (17/25 in that regard). Two league managers compared him to Brian McCann, and one suggested that he might just have been tired.

Joseph Smith (Mets P) is on the fast track for delivery to New York, and could get there as early as the tag end of next year.

Evan Longoria and Billy Rowell didn't play enough in the league to qualify, but would have been 1-2 had they done so. Ian Kennedy would have ranked just behind the (current) top 2; Mark Melancon would have been just ahead of Boston's Justin Masterson (#6).

Aaron Bates (Red Sox/NCSU) can flat out hit, kind of a poor man's Ryan Garko, but needs to show more power to rate higher.

The list below the top 10 was pretty fluid, from 11-25 there were a bunch of guys who could have been moved up or down. There were also a lot of good relievers considered for the list, although unless a reliever really has a *GREAT* fastball it's hard for him to get consideration.

-- MWE

man, i am feeling good about the fact that brian mccann is a player others are being compared TO now. too bad the rest of the team isn't any good.

billy rowell is looking like a great pick by the O's - it's hard to find anyone who doesn't like him as a prospect.

NWL: It'll be interesting to see what happens with Colvin and Sulentic going forward. I'm personally much less impressed by Colvin than Aaron Fitt; Boise's pretty HR-friendly and Colvin hit 8 of his 11 HRs there. Vancouver, where Sulentic played, is much less friendly to hitters (especially power-wise; the Canadiens hit only 8 HR there and 25 on the road). Sulentic is three years younger than Colvin, and didn't perform too badly for an 18-YO when promoted to Kane County for the postseason. Colvin does run *much* better, though - that does matter.

Shane Lindsay is 21, not 18.

-- MWE

Aaron Fitt chat highlights on NWL prospects (really good group of questions for this one, which is why there are so many highlights):

Colvin still has a "projectable" body, even though he's 21 (which means he could still add some power). The assessment of Colvin's power isn't based just on his HRs, but on his physical skills as well.

Jeff Samardzija (Cubs) would have made the list had he pitched enough innings, certainly top 10. Lincecum would have been #1.

Chad Tracy (Rangers) has a long way to go just to be a passable catcher; odds are that he'll have to be moved.

Fitt commenting on Adam Cowart (Giants):

The purpose of these lists is to rank based on what the players will likely do in the future. You can consider past performance as one tool when evaluating future potential, but particularly in the low minors, statistics are not a very good predictor. Cowart dominated the NWL because he was much more advanced than his competition, many of whom had never seen a submariner with good control like Cowart. It's not a matter of improving on his mechanics; he just doesn't throw very hard, and he doesn't project to ever do so.

Matt Antonelli (Padres) doesn't appear to have enough power to stay at 3B, and profiles more as a 2B. Sulentic, too, could wind up at 2B.

Hankerd's likely to be the first MWL position player to make the majors out of this group, and Josh Sullivan (Rockies) the first pitcher.

I think you're right about Sulentic moving over to 2B, Mike. He's just not very big but he sure can rake.

Hankerd's likely to be the first MWL position player to make the majors out of this group

Where would he play?

Aside from Young and Quentin, already in the majors, the Dbacks have Carlos Gonzalez and Justin Upton in the OF in the minors. And now Hankerd. Any chance the NL will allow the Dbacks to play with 5 outfielders?

I also see Sulentic as a second baseman, though I'm not sure the A's are an organization that would move him, with their emphasis of infield defense. In some ways, he reminds me of Marcus Giles (there was talk of moving him to left early in his career as well).
Not sure why Colvin got the #1 nod, frankly. Don't get me wrong - he's a good prospect - just not the league's best.
Also don't like Cowart getting the token last spot - who do they think they are, BP? I'd rather have Nathan Southard there - he might turn out to be a 4th OF, but isn't that potentially more valuable than a middle reliever?

The Midwest League had, in my opinion, the best group of prospects around this year, and BA's list shows it. Johnny Cueto is a heck of a pitching prospect, and he's just #12 in this group. Travis Wood, who's almost as good a prospect as Cueto, didn't even make this list.

-- MWE

Highlights from Jim Callis's chat:

There was support for all four of the outfielders as the #1 prospect overall. Utlimately, Bruce got the selection because he has the best bat.

Tyler Greene (Cardinals) got very little consideration for inclusion. The thoughts on him are that (a) he won't stick at SS and (b) he's a mistake hitter.

Matt Torra's (Diamondbacks) recovery from labrum surgery is still a question mark; one scout who saw him late was underwhelmed with what he saw.

Adam Ottavino (Cardinals) didn't qualify; he'd have been around #13.

Upton's attitude has been called into question; he needs to work harder, stop throwing tantrums, and get away from the jerk-everything-out-of-the-park mindset. His tools will probably get him to the majors, but they're not good enoough by themselves to meet the exepctations. His stats actually weren't bad for a teenager playing in OB for the first time in a full-season league.

Erik Cordier (Royals) appears to be fully healthy; he touched 97 and sat at 93-94 late in the season.

Callis thinks the Devil Rays have the best farm system around, and I'm not sure he's wrong.

-- MWE

Not sure why Colvin got the #1 nod, frankly. Don't get me wrong - he's a good prospect - just not the league's best.

The more I look at the guys around him on this list, the more I can see the rationale for this choice (and the more that I think that this was NOT a good year for the NWL).

Also don't like Cowart getting the token last spot - who do they think they are, BP? I'd rather have Nathan Southard there - he might turn out to be a 4th OF, but isn't that potentially more valuable than a middle reliever?

I don't think Cowart's going to be much of anything, either, but he does deserve some kudos for what he did this year. I probably would have put Halman on the list somewhere, the 32/3 K/BB ratio notwithstanding.

-- MWE

Do the Reds with Bruce and Bailey have the best 1-2 punch prospect wise in baseball now?

Do the Reds with Bruce and Bailey have the best 1-2 punch prospect wise in baseball now?

It depends on whether or not you still consider Kendrick a prospect or not, I guess. Kendrick/Adenhart would be pretty stiff competition.

-- MWE

It depends on whether or not you still consider Kendrick a prospect or not, I guess. Kendrick/Adenhart would be pretty stiff competition.

I don't know that I'd count him anymore as he's used up his rookie status, I think. Otherwise I would probably take Upton and Drew even though Upton has disappointed a little so far.

I may consider Longoria and Young up there too, but I'd like to know how much this season has changed Longoria's potential in the eyes of scouts. And I must say, despite a lack of plate discipline thus far, I can see why people think he has a HOF bat. He must have one of the fastest, most powerful swings I've ever seen.

Did anybody look at the Jeffress video?

McCutchen over Tabata and Martinez. Hmmmm...I think that had either of the other two played a full season the ordering would have been different.

Deolis Guerra should have been a lot higher on this list, and Inman's probably too high. All four of the top pitchers the Marlins assigned to Greensboro made the top 20 (which makes you wonder how the Grasshoppers managed to finish 64-70 overall).

-- MWE

Err...Greensboro finished 68-69 overall. MiLB.com duplicated the second half records under the first half standings.

-- MWE

I agree somewhat with you mike, but i think mccutchen's performance at AA counts for something. Still, he's two years older than Tabata/Fernando so that's a huge difference. They certainly have higher ceilings, but I think McCutchen at this point is a better bet to stick in center.

McCutchen over Tabata and Martinez. Hmmmm...I think that had either of the other two played a full season the ordering would have been different.

Ah, I'm not gonna sweat it. I'd think that if, as BA says, Martinez projects to stay in CF and Tabata projects as RF, then that answers the question of who is the better prospect between the two of them right there: Martinez has to be the more valuable guy for defensive value alone.

As for McCutchen, you have to love 19 HRs, even with the higher number of ABs and being two years older. They are all very young, with extremely high ceilings. Reasonable minds might vary in ranking them; they're head and shoulders above the rest of the league, it appears.

As for Guerra, I don't know, Mike. I see a 37/64 W/K ratio in 82 IP, and I have a hard time thinking that 11th best prospect in the league is all THAT low. He's very young, certainly, a good prospect, but how much higher should he really be?

Bed & Breakfast, arguably the best two pitching prospects the Red Sox have, are ranked 13th & 15th. Not that impressive, considering the amount of hype they've been getting in Sox Therapy...

But hey, Jeff Natale was hit by pitch 21 times...

Teams may also be starting to grow wary, not without reason, of drafting HS catchers in the first round. For every Mauer, there's a high-profile failure. Neil Walker has been slow to develop and has had some injury problems. Brandon Snyder struggled this year at Aberdeen and Delmarva. Jon Poterson, who the Yankees drafted with a supplemental first round pick in 2004, is going nowhere fast. Barton had to be moved off catcher, and his development has slowed due to injury. Saltalamacchia stalled this year as well.

Do catchers have the same offensive progression as other players? Jason Varitek and Bengie Molina appear to have become better hitters after hitting 30, Posada's best years were at 28, 31, and 32, Mickey Tettleton didn't start exhibiting power until age 27 (don't most position players make their power leap around age 25?), and Darren Daulton didn't do anything until age 30. I don't know if that's common amongst catchers, or if those are just examples that stick in the mind.

***

Teams might also have been hesitant to take Conger because of his letter of intent at U$C. The Angels, being local, were in a good position to sway him away from the dark side.

Teams might also have been hesitant to take Conger because of his letter of intent at U$C. The Angels, being local, were in a good position to sway him away from the dark side.

All the info that came out before the draft suggested that Conger was signable - there was a lot of talk about the Yankees taking him at #21.

-- MWE

Bed & Breakfast, arguably the best two pitching prospects the Red Sox have, are ranked 13th & 15th. Not that impressive, considering the amount of hype they've been getting in Sox Therapy...

Well, you have to put this into context. There are 14 teams in the SAL, and most teams have one or two top prospects. The difference between #1 and #15, in a league like that, can be pretty small. I don't think there's a lot of difference between Carrasco and Volstad, at #5 and #6, and B&B;.

-- MWE

There are 14 teams in the SAL

Said 14, meant 16. The MWL has 14 teams.

-- MWE

Highlights from Matt Meyers' SAL chat:

Angel Salome (Brewers, one of Harvey's favorite prospects) was in the 26-30 range. He has a major hole in his swing, stepping in the bucket which allows him to be pitched away, and which will be exploited at higher levels. His arm is strong but not all that accurate.

JR Towles (Astros) just missed the cut for the top 20. He was the best catching prospect in the league, but was old for it at 22 and wasn't all that exciting with the bat.

Jon Niese (Mets) needs consistency; the one time all of his pitches were working he threw a three-hitter, so the talent is there.

Max Ramirez (Braves/Indians) has major questions about his defense. If he can't remain behind the plate, he's not nearly as good of a prospect.

The decision on Tabata/Martinez was, ultimately, that the former's bat outweighs the latter's defensive skills.

Natale would have been top-20 if performance were the only criterion, but he's 24, he's small, and he's already at 2B.

Bowden's a potential bullpen candidate; he doesn't have the best mechanics in the world (he was sent to see Dr Andrews to make sure that they weren't stressing his shoulder) and he doesn't have a serviceable third pitch yet. That said, he's likely going to start until he proves he can't.

CJ Henry (Yankees/Phillies) was unimpressive; one scout suggested that he should be in left field already (which does not bode well for his future)

Meyers did say that there was little separating the pitchers on this list.

-- MWE

I don't see Bowden winding up in the bullpen.

CJ Henry (Yankees/Phillies) was unimpressive; one scout suggested that he should be in left field already (which does not bode well for his future)

Well if that's the case, the Abreu trade sure looks even better.

I have no problem with McCutchen being #1, and would have put him there myself. I think with Tabata and Martinez it's basically the same situation as Bailey and Hughes where there are plenty of reasons to take either one just slightly ahead of the other. Andrus could end up being better than both too, but obviously he has to perform some more.

Was there anything about Austin Jackson? He hasn't performed well enough to merit inclusion on this list, but I'm wondering what scouts / managers have thought about his progression so far.

Was there anything about Austin Jackson?

He came up in the chat:

Jackson is certainly an impressive athlete, but his approach at the plate needs serious work. As you mentioned, he struck out 151 times. He was just too raw to be ranked in a 16-team league. Most people like his athleticism but I spoke to one scout who said that he wrote him up as a non prospect. I think it is way too early to give up on him, but he needs work.

I think that's about right.

There's still some love for Marcos Vechionacci, too, but at some point he has to start performing.

-- MWE

I don't see Bowden winding up in the bullpen.

The Red Sox certainly don't want to put him there, but he's not going to be consistently successful as a starter until he learns to change speeds effectively.

-- MWE

He was 19

That's right, Bowden was 19.

This quote about Bowden is taken from the scouting report:

Since his high school days, there have been questions about his unorthodox mechanics--his arm action is long in back but short coming forward, and he has some recoil. Because of his delivery and lack of a changeup, there's some sentiment that he could wind up in the bullpen.

Most young pitchers have to learn some sort of offspeed pitch; Bowden is hardly unique in needing to do that. It's also not unusual to raise the possibility that a pitcher with two outstanding pitches (which Bowden certainly *does* have) who doesn't have a reliable offspeed pitch could win up in the pen down the road. No one - not the Red Sox, not the scouts, not BA - is saying that Bowden is definitely destined for the pen, and therefore needs to be put there ASAP; Matt Meyers went out of his way to say that he agreed that Bowden should start until he shows that he can't. That's what teams IMO should do with all young pitchers (and which almost all of them do, in fact, do) - let them pitch their way *out* of being a starter.

If I were Boston, I'd be tempted to send B&B;to Portland next year rather than to Lancaster. I don't expect that to happen, but I'd be nervous about what might happen in the Cal League.

-- MWE

I think that's about right.

There's still some love for Marcos Vechionacci, too, but at some point he has to start performing.

Thanks Mike! There's certainly nothing there I disagree with.

I still have some hope for Vech, too. He's supposedly a great defender at 3B, and he's shown some good plate discipline at least. The Yankees screwed with his and Nunez' development this year IMO, and I think both need to produce in '07 to remain prospects.

Well, you have to put this into context. There are 14 teams in the SAL, and most teams have one or two top prospects. The difference between #1 and #15, in a league like that, can be pretty small. I don't think there's a lot of difference between Carrasco and Volstad, at #5 and #6, and B&B;.

Point well taken, Mike.

If I were Boston, I'd be tempted to send B&B;to Portland next year rather than to Lancaster. I don't expect that to happen, but I'd be nervous about what might happen in the Cal League.

We kill another pitcher now
We don't like prospects anyhow
Get ready for the future, brother
It is Dr. Andrews

The questions about Bowden's mechanics have persisted since the day he was drafted...

In Kevin Goldstein's article today, he rips Landon Powell for lack of conditioning--saying "He's a switch-hitting catcher with patience, power and defensive skills, but if he's that big, it doesn't mean squat." BA, however, raves a bit about his agility behind the plate (ranking him 15th in a weak Cal League). Does anyone who's seen him this year care to comment? Is he still a prospect?

Nick Adenhart makes two league top-5s! Although that probably says as much about the quality of the prospects in the Cal League as it does about Adenhart.

I'm a bit surprised that neither James Houser nor Jonathan Barratt cracked the top 20. I like Sam Deduno, but he has yet to master the strike zone, and he's not going to be able to get away with that in Colorado. I can't see having him ahead of the pair of Oaks at this stage of their respective careers. And it's hard to get excited about Cesar Ramos when he's fanning one guy every other inning.

-- MWE

BA has never liked Barratt because of his size. From what I've heard calling him 5'10" (his listed height) is being generous and he's thin as a rail. I don't really agree with them on that, I think BA is too quick sometimes to dismiss pitchers because of their height, but that's probably their reasoning.

Reid Brignac or Brandon Wood? John Sickels seems to be a huge, huge Brignac fan.

"Does anyone who's seen him this year care to comment? Is he still a prospect?"

BA did say that scouts only saw 5 likely everyday players in the league and Powell wasn't mentioned in that 5

I was able to see the Rays-related chat questions, it confirmed what I said above about Barratt.

What I thought was ridiculous though was the response about Chris Mason. Mason has never been more than a guy with mid-rotation upside but to say that he only profiles as a decent setup man (and only if he controls his emotions) is really harsh. He was somewhat disappointing to me this season because he was expected to be a fairly quick mover through the system due to his polish but you have to remember that he only threw 33 innings in his debut season (split between short season and Low-A) and was thrown straight into the Cal League fire for his first full year. I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt and another season to prove/disprove himself before he gets dismissed so easily.

BA has never liked Barratt because of his size. From what I've heard calling him 5'10" (his listed height) is being generous and he's thin as a rail.

I understand that; he's probably closer to 5'8". But I still think he has more upside than Ramos.

-- MWE

Highlights from Aaron Fitt chat on Cal Leaguers (and he took my question on Houser and Barratt):

Brignac had a better year than Gonzalez, when you put it all together. He's a little younger, plays a position that's a little tougher, and there are no questions about his work ethic and makeup, where there are a *couple* about Gonzalez's (he comes off as a bit arrogant).

Scouts don't expect Sean Rodriguez to stay at SS, and there are enough questions about his bat so that he may wind up as a utility player.

Mark Lowe didn't qualify; he'd have ranked about #6. Longoria and Lincecum also didn't qualify, and probably would have ranked top-5.

Houser's velocity dropped a bit this year; he was in the mid-to-upper-80s. He needs to get that back.

Most of the guys discussed in the chat were of the "why-didn't-he-make-it" variety, and most ranked in the 20-30 range (guys like Wimberly, Nowak, Rahl, Brian Anderson, etc.).

-- MWE

Sweet. 4 Dbacks prospects in the top 20.

Between M. Reynolds and E. Bonifacio, who's got the better shot of having a career in the majors?

4 Dbacks prospects in the top 20.

Plus Rahl, who probably deserved to be there, too. Although as I said earlier, this wasn't a great year for the Cal League.

Between M. Reynolds and E. Bonifacio, who's got the better shot of having a career in the majors?

Reynolds is a better hitter, but doesn't have a position. Bonifacio is similar to Luis Castillo with a little less OBP and a little more pop; he needs to make more consistent contact. Neither right now, IMO, projects to have much of a career as a regular; Reynolds could become a super-utility player at some point.

-- MWE

I have the print edition with all the leagues done. Would it be cheating to reveal the # 1's for each league before they are revealed by BA on-line?

I have the print edition with all the leagues done. Would it be cheating to reveal the # 1's for each league before they are revealed by BA on-line?

Just curious, how did you get it?

I'm a subscriber, Melky. It comes the old-fashioned way: in the mail. ;-)

I'm a subscriber, Melky. It comes the old-fashioned way: in the mail. ;-)

D'oh! I figured you had a friend in BA or something. I really need to subscribe to them again.

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess Philip Hughes is the #1 in the Eastern League, though. Knowing me, though, I completely forgot somebody.

Bailey or Gallardo in the Southern League, Sam?

Southern League is Bailey; Eastern League is Hughes.

Hughes #1 in the EL. Bailey and Gallardo #1/2 in the SL in that order.

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess Philip Hughes is the #1 in the Eastern League, though. Knowing me, though, I completely forgot somebody.

You did. Not that I think he deserves it over Hughes, but he did win Pitcher of the Year over Hughes.

And Bailey will probably get the top spot in the SL.

-- MWE

D'oh!

Adam Miller's not even that close in the EL, Mike. # 4, behind Hughes, Matt Garza and Mike Pelfrey.

Bailey beats Gallardo due to better pure stuff, I presume?

Bailey beats Gallardo due to better pure stuff, I presume?

Pretty much. They seem to stress Bailey's velocity as the big difference. Both have excellent curve balls. They really like Gallardo's variety of pitches, too, but Bailey's better fastball trumps that. My read of the two scouting reports is that these are two guys not very far apart at all in their eyes.

Adam Miller's not even that close in the EL, Mike. # 4, behind Hughes, Matt Garza and Mike Pelfrey.

What was their reasoning, health questions? I know his stuff isn't quite where it was pre-injury, but I would think Miller's overall stuff is greater than Garza, Pelfrey, and probably Hughes, too.

And just think, were the Brewers any other organization, they'd have drafted Bailey instead of Mark Rogers. Though of course they might not have then drafted Gallardo.

What was their reasoning, health questions?

Not that they said. Comparing him to Pelfrey (the # 3 guy), they seem to like Pelfrey's command of his fastball better, and reading between the lines, they seem to like his second pitch (his change-up) about as well as Miller's second pitch (his slider).

The scouting reports on all four are really, really glowing. They certainly mentioned that Miller was coming back from arm problems, so it could be that those question marks were the tie-breaker. But they didn't come out and say that.

Sam...did Tyler Clippard make it?

Clippard is # 10 in the EL.

Clippard is # 10 in the EL.

Hot.

Not that they said. Comparing him to Pelfrey (the # 3 guy), they seem to like Pelfrey's command of his fastball better, and reading between the lines, they seem to like his second pitch (his change-up) about as well as Miller's second pitch (his slider).

Wow, I'm very surprised by this. I had thought Miller's slider was nasty, and certainly better than any of Pelfrey's secondary offerings. Of course Pelfrey's change could have progressed a lot, and maybe Miller just doesn't have his slider quite back yet.

What was said about Clippard?

What was said about Clippard?

Clippard: He's the "anti-Hughes." Hughes is all stuff; Clippard is all deception. Decent velocity (88-91), aided by hiding the fastball well. Very good control, strong curve. Sounds like a useful back of the rotation guy to me.

I was a big fan of the idea of Clippard coming over to the Brewers for Carlos Lee.

What I thought was ridiculous though was the response about Chris Mason.
I agree.
(Caveat/Gratuitous plug - He attended my undergrad alma mater, UNC-Greensboro, whose program has an intriguing future. Go Spartans!)

Bailey "looks" like an ace. I was more impressed by him than any other prospect in the Futures Game even though he got beat around a bit. Love to see a segment on his mechanics by CBW.

Hughes looked good too in that game even though he also got hit hard.

Sam, can you tell me what Phils (if any) made the FSL, EL or IL lists?

Alan:

FSL -- # 20, Greg Golson, OF
EL -- # 16, Scott Mathieson, RHP; # 18, Gio Gonzalez, LHP
IL -- # 17, Michael Bourn, OF

Since none of them are in the top 10, they don't have scouting reports in the print edition.

"There were only a few hitters you'd really want," a scout with a National League club said. "You kept waiting for more and you always seemed to leave the ballpark disappointed."

I have a feeling that this is going to be a common theme this year. It seems to me that the quality of position players in every league falls off drastically after the top three or four.

-- MWE

Scouts don't expect Sean Rodriguez to stay at SS, and there are enough questions about his bat so that he may wind up as a utility player.

I'd love to see him end up in center (or at least get a shot there). He actually played center field his senior year of high school. If he can handle it, he can survive with just a decent bat -- though, like most Angel prospects, he needs to cut down on his strikeouts. (Unlike most Angel prospects, he actually seems to have something of a clue about the strike zone, though he walked less frequently in the Cal League than at other levels. Still, he walked a bit more than the league and had an OPS+ of 145.)

Chris Kline CL chat highlights:

Scouts are split on Nolan Reimold; some see fourth OF, some see legit five-tool talent. (My opinion: probably closer to the former than the latter.)

There have been some reports that Crowe was unhappy about being moved to 2B, and he didn't play with as much confidence when the Indians tried him there late in the season.

Neil Walker made strides defensively this season, and the early-season wrist injury and late-season viral infection suggest that his offensive performance this year can be discounted to some extent.

Ditto Lowrie, whose best month was August when he finally got healthy. He's probably limited to 2B.

As has been noted elsewhere, Scott Lewis was on extreme pitch-count limits all season (60-75 pitches per start, which explains his 3-3 W/L record despite not missing a start all season and leading the minors in ERA). It was a huge step forward for him just to throw every fifth day and be able to bounce back to take the ball each time. He obviously will have to stretch it out next season, and if he can do that, the Indians might be able to add another live arm to their collection.

Stephen Head hasn't made any adjustments whatsoever since coming out of college, and that's causing a lot of questions. The power is there, but he still has the same long hole-filled swing.

Garrett Olson is more likely to succeed in the majors as a reliever - his stuff tends to flatten out after he goes through the order one time, and when he did pitch in relief (in the Car League finals in '05) he was much more aggressive.

-- MWE