Rule 4 Draft (DISCUSSION THREAD)
The Rule 4 draft will be held beginning at 2 PM on June 7, extending into June 8. Baseball America has the complete draft order for the first five rounds, with Arizona getting the additional draft pick (#65) if they fail to sign Max Scherzer by Thursday (a scenario which is looking pretty likely).
On Sunday, beginning at 2 PM Central Time, John Sickels will be hosting a mock draft, covering five rounds. I will be handling the Orioles, who have picks in only the 1st, 4th, and 5th rounds.
While Tampa’s front office insists that they haven’t yet made a decision, almost everyone expects the #1 pick to be Vanderbilt LHP David Price. The Royals, drafting 2nd, are likely to take Seton Hall Prep RHP Rick Porcello, even though Scott Boras is his “adviser”. Assuming those two picks go as advertised, the fun begins. The Cubs, picking 3rd, like Cypress (CA) HS 3B Josh Vitters, but might also go for Georgia Tech C Matt Wieters, who is also a Boras “advisee”, and who may very well drop to #10 (Giants) if the Cubs don’t take him, even though he’s a consensus top-5 player; it is very unlikely that any of the teams between the Cubs and the Giants would be interested in Wieters, either because of other needs or because of his Boras connection.
If Vitters isn’t available to the Pirates at #4, the guessing is that the Bucs will either take Lewis and Clark OF Beau Mills, who would be a bit of a reach at that level, or will opt for a safer college arm like Clemson lefty Daniel Moskos or Missouri State lefty Ross Detwiler. The Orioles are also interested in one of the two pitchers at #5.
If Scherzer does re-enter the draft pool, the speculation is that he’ll go to the Nationals at #6, because of Mike Rizzo’s presence there. Rizzo was, of course, with the Diamondbacks when they took Scherzer originally.
Andrew Brackman, the NC State pitcher who had been projected as a top-3 draft pick, has likely pitched his way out of the upper half of the first round. He’s missed his last two starts because of a “dead arm”, and might not be available to the Wolfpack for the NCAA tournament opener. There’s little question about Brackman’s skills, but the results just haven’t been there.
UPDATE: Jonathan Mayo checks in with his mock 1st round.
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2. Why does he have bad control?
3. When will his breaking balls exhibit a modicum of consistency?
4. When will he dominate a level (the pitching friendly CCL doesn't exactly count)?
5. Why does he have a fatigued arm after 78 IP?
Brackman isn't better than Max Scherzer. He's not better than Matt Latos. Hell, he's not better than James Simmons. He hasn't earned the right to be talked about among pitchers of that ilk. Please produce first.
It sounds like the Royals are leaning towards Porcello though.
but is he better than daniel bard?
When I say that "Brackman has the skills to be successful", I mean exactly that. His three-pitches (two-seamer, four-seamer, knuckle-curve) are all extremely effective when he's healthy. The issue for him all along has been durability. In the past, his problems were "blamed" on basketball - so he didn't play basketball in 2006-2007, and he still has problems.
-- MWE
Well, he just hit about .410/.530/.800 in the SEC, so I would think not.
(BTW, I know what you mean. I just wanted to work in the snark)
Will Vitters be able to stick at 3B? I've heard that there are questions about his glove. As a Cubs fan, I'm also ALWAYS leery of HS bats... though, of course, maybe I really should be more leery of the Cubs ability to develop position players no matter where they come from.
I know Vitters is supposed to have a "special" bat - but I'm not so hot about drafting a hitter who's likely to be stuck at 1B unless he's of the truly special, .350/.450/650 other-wordly variety.
I'll take the 70-power with contact skills just the way they are. Who cares if he's stuck at first-base, the dude can mash. Yeah postional scarcity yeah, but give me that kind of power to start with and you can build a pretty good lineup.
Any idea when Danny Payne will go in the draft?4th/5th or much later as a tweener? If Wieters drops to the Giants at #10, that will be 2 years in a row that they got top 3 talent in that spot
Did the Padres sign him as a draft and follow or is he re-entering the draft?
He'll probably go much higher than that, actually; late supplemental or early 2nd round. He's not quite a strong performance/limited upside player - he does have some tools. BA rates him sixth among Georgia prospects, PG Crosschecker rates him 4th (and 51st overall).
-- MWE
Everything I've heard suggests that Latos hasn't moved off 3.5 million, and if that's the case he's probably going to wind up like Matt Harrington - back in the draft and likely to be picked in a slot where he'll be lucky to get half that.
-- MWE
There's been rumblings from the Milwaukee beat writers that they might grab him if available.
Catcher isn't a spot of depth for the Brewers, Attanasio's willing to spend, and they don't pick again until the third round.
They're the only MLB team where both the GM and assistant GM are Canadian, so that shouldn't be a surprise.
How does it relate to this year's draft? Pittsburgh will pass on Scherzer and Detwiler because they project into Major League pitchers and their system has failed pretty horribly on high level pitchers recently. They will reach for a bum like Mills at #4 overall, even though Wieters is a much better hitter, they won't even inquire as to the asking price.
No matter what happens, it will never be as memorable as the Bucs taking Sean Burnett #1 overall, then immediately claiming that he has the potential to be a very good #3 starter.
I think you mean Bullington...
They're all pretty much the same guy, aren't they?
They're all pretty much the same guy, aren't they?
Sigh.
Burnett's the *LEFTY* who doesn't strike people out.
Bullington's the *RIGHTY* who doesn't strike people out.
:P
Garabedian will likely go somewhere in rounds 6-10. His skill set is similar to, although not on the same level as, that of Mike Piazza.
-- MWE
Is this the last year for draft and follows? I thought I had read somewhere that this year, you have til August to sign your draftees. True?
August 15 is the deadline, beginning this year. No more DFEs.
RHP Jordan Walden, one of the highest rated DFEs from a year ago, signed with the Angels. Some other DFEs that have signed: SS Jedon Matthews (White Sox), 3B Todd Waller (Reds), RHP Travis Turek (Indians), SS Zack Murry (Rockies), RHP Dylan Lindsey (Angels), C Dante Love (Athletics), RHP Robbie Dominguez (Mariners), RHP Jordan Latham (Cubs). DFEs have until 11:59PM tonight to sign, unless they are still playing in the Junior College WS.
-- MWE
And does anyone have any idea whom the Dbacks will take at 9? You mentioned Wieters dropping to 10 (Giants) but do you really see him getting past the Dbacks?
Reminds everyone who sees him of Verlander. He's also a great student.
I'll follow him with interest.
Arizona would like pitching, preferably a college pitcher (but not Brackman, who will almost certainly be there). If Detwiler or Moskos manage to drop to #9, the D'backs will likely take whichever one drops there (they both won't). They could also reach for Casey Weathers or Brett Cecil, or take one of the myriad HS arms that will likely be available (Parker, Beavan, Bumgarner, maybe even Aumont).
Given what Arizona just went through with Scherzer, and given that Wieters wants a major league contract and a hefty bonus, I can't imagine that they'd take him.
-- MWE
Is Porcello really asking for 8M-9M? If so, will he just end up sliding to a team willing to go really over slot?
Who would give that to him? I also heard he's asking for a MLB contract, which I can't imagine anyone would be willing to give to a HS kid. I'm guessing this is all posturing, but I am fearful that the Royals take him and Boras takes til August 15 to get something done, costing the kid some important developmental time, or worse yet, the Royals lose him.
Wieters looks fairly "can't miss" too as a #1 pick candidate.
A lot of good ones. From the college ranks there is Brian Matusz (LHP, San Diego), Pedro Alvarez (3B, Vandy), Justin Smoak (1B, S. Carolina), Jacob Thompson (RHP, Virginia), Lance Lynn (RHP, Ole Miss), Brett Wallace (1B, ASU), Brandon Crawford (SS, UCLA), Preston Guilmet (RHP, Arizona), Aaron Shafer (RHP, WSU), Tyson Ross (RHP, Cal), David Cooper (OF, Cal), Allan Dykstra (1B, Wake). I'm sure I'm missing some others.
I can't see the Pirates going that route, if Vitters is gone; they really want a more polished hitter.
-- MWE
Yeah! He was one of the most talked about high schoolers before the 2006 season started, had a poor year, and slipped in the draft, but I like taking chances on guys like that. Like Nick Adenhart. Angels have only 1 decent pick, a supplemental we got for Adam Kennedy, so hopefully a top player with high bonus demands will slip to them. They can certainly afford to go over slot on the right player since they don't have a first rounder to spend on.
I'll take the 70-power with contact skills just the way they are. Who cares if he's stuck at first-base, the dude can mash.
Question is, how much will he mash? Like Paul Konerko, an everyday 35 homer guy, or like Matt LeCroy, a useful spare part/platoon guy.
Really? He seems pretty polished to me, at least as far as approach goes.
That said, I have no expectation that they'd take him, either. The best we can probably hope to do is shame them into paying for Wieters, and even that's on the far side of unlikely.
Not too many; that's pretty much the top group, along with Brett Hunter (RHP, Pepperdine) and Ike Davis (OF, ASU). ASU is loaded with sophomore talent, and will probably be the consensus preseason #1 next year.
Some HS guys of interest for next year (no particular order):
Brett DeVall, LHP, Rutherford HS, Panama City, FL
Robbie Ross, LHP/OF, Lexington (KY) Christian HS
Walker Kelly, LHP, Arlington Heights HS, Fort Worth, TX
Daniel Marrs, RHP, James River HS, Midlothian, VA
Navery Moore, RHP, Battle Ground Academy, Frankin, TN
Quinton Miller, RHP, Shawnee HS, Medford, NJ
Aaron Hicks, OF, Woodrow Wilson HS, Long Beach, CA
Isaac Galloway, OF, Los Osos HS, Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS, Cooper City, FL
Jordan Swagerty, C/P, Prestonwood Christian Academy, Plano, TX
Ethan Martin, 3B/P, Stephens County HS, Toccoa, GA
Abe Ruiz, 3B, Pacific Grove (CA) HS
Harold Martinez, SS, Braddock HS, Miami, FL
-- MWE
I still have hopes for Heyward!
The D-Rays front office says there is. I don't necessarily believe that, nor does anyone else around.
-- MWE
Heyward may very well get all the way down to #14. Beaven probably will be available. Josh Smoker, another local prospect and a highly rated HS LHP, and Nate Vineyard, a local RHP, will probably be there, too.
-- MWE
Midnight Friday.
More DFE signings (courtesy of BA):
RHP Chad Robinson (Brewers)
RHP Matt Small (Braves)
3B Stephen Shults (Braves)
LHP Clayton McMillian (Braves)
OF L.V. Ware (Braves)
The Braves also have two of Shults's teammates, RHP Jack Tilghman and C J.B. Paxson, under their control. Scouting director Roy Clark's son attends Walters State.
-- MWE
Thats most of it.
Alex Wilson (RHP - The 'Throp), Jermile Weeks (2b - "Da U"), Tim Federowvicz (C/DH - UNC), David Adams (2b/3b - UVA) also might be in there somewhere.
-Buster Posey (FSU) was more of a pitching prospect in HS but at FSU hes made his mark more at the plate, starting at SS last year and C this year.
-Anyone know if Aaron Luna (Rice) eally play second? He hasnt had much trouble hitting college pitching. He came to Rice as a 3b, started in left as a freshman and at 2b this year as a soph.
-Jeremy Farrell (3b - UVA ... and son of the Indian's Farm Dir.) was well-regarded out of high school and has played well at UVA, when he has played. If he can hit and show some health he could go relatively high.
-Eastern KY LHP Christian Friedrich has shown good life on a low 90s fastball and struck out oodles of college batters. He was also named the #1 prospect in the NECBL after his freshman year.
-Arizona State catcher Petey Paramore was highly regarded out of HS but dropped due to signability and position concerns and went to college where, like all Sun Devils not named Jarred Bogany, he has hit like gangbusters
-If they play JuCo ball next spring ex-South Carolina RHP Nick Fuller and 3b/rf Lonnie Chisenhall would be eligible for the draft. They were 4th and 2nd, respectively (i think), among freshman prospects this spring before getting arrested, and kicked off the team, for theft.
-RHP/LF Zach Putnam from Michigan was a potential high pick out of high school. Hes got good power and a low 90s sinking fastball. Change and curve are supposed to be solid too. Had a very good year as a two-way guy this year, playing a huge role in leading Michigan to a #2 seed. Ann Arbor's still a whore though. : )
-Alabama pitchers Miers Quigley and Tommy Hunter, lefty and righty respectively, will also be eligible and could go somewhat high. Quigley could have gone in the first couple rounds out of Roswell(Ga) High but decided to get wasted, get arrested and then flee by kicking out a cops windshield. Hes been alright but unspectacular in college but seems to still be well regarded. Such is the blessed life of a 6-4 LHP than can top 90.
Hunter, from Indiana of all places, has the better arm. I've seen him on TV twice and hes been low 90s with good movement. Hes got a big, burly pitchers frame. Kind of Clemens-y from a physical perspective.
Alabama's Josh Copeland, RHP, was a top 25 HS prospect at one point as a pitcher as well as third baseman. He had a good year in the pen this year but he still hasn't lived up to his HS billing, but hes also still big and hard-throwing so he'll garner some attention.
-Southern Illinois pitcher Cody Adams saw his velo really take off this year, touching 96. Turned in a pretty good year as SIU's ace. Also a real good athlete.
-I think Atlanta high school RHP Michael Pallazone will be draft eligible next year too. Havn't seen him pitch but hes garnered plenty of attention.
-Tennessee SS Tony Delmonico graduated HS early to go to UT and play baseball for his father, UT's head coach, early. He was mentioned as a top 100 or 200 pick had he not left HS early and has put in two solid or better years for the Vols at SS. Scouts always like baseball bloodlines.
-Tulane RHP Shooter Hunt transferred from UVA and put up a great year for the Green Wave. Supposed to have a lively low 90s fastball and sharp, plus curve. One of the top guys in his class on the Cape last year. I would also like to repeat that his name is Shooter.
-Purdue RHP Josh Lindblom was the highest HS pick from the 05 draft to attend college, which for him was originally Tennessee. 6-4 240 with 92-93 mph fastball.
-Texas OF Jordan Danks was considered the top recruit in the country from HS. Hes been solid for the Longhorns but not quite the dominant force the Longhorns hoped for. Walks alot, hits for solid average, good athlete, steals some bags and has gap power. His maturing 6-5, 210 frame was supposed to show more over the fence power by now, even given how unfriendly Disch-Falk field can be to homers, but it could still come. Brother of White Sox LHP, and former top 10 pick, John Danks.
-Vanderbilt RHP Brett Jacobsen is another risiing junior that could have gone in the first round in 05. His projectable 6-6 195 frame and low 90s fastball are pluses.
His teammate SS Ryan Flaherty could be a decently high pick. He'll have to move to third in pro ball but has hit for high average with tons of doubles in his two years of college. Needs to show more over the fence power to be a real good 3b prospect but his 6-3 200 frame could muscle up and generate some homers. If being a high average, high doubles, hard contact hitter certainly is no bad thing.
Another 'Dore, RHP Josh Zied, was a top 100 '05 HS prospect as a big guy with a good fastball but hasn't done anything in college.
Notable non-top prospect types:
-South Carolina shortstop Reese Havens could have been a second rounder out of HS but made himself unsignable and then proceeded to not hit college pitching for the last two years. Not helping him is that he doesnt seem to have the athleticism needed field well enough to make a weak bat tolerable. If he turns it on as a junior (and its common enough to see a kid struggle for 2 years before taking off in his draft year) he could maybe get back to the top 3-5 rounds but I haven't seen anything special about him. Was good on the Cape though
-On a similar note to Havens, Auburn SS/RHP Justin Bristow turned down good pro offers to go to Auburn. After being pretty mediocre as a two-way guy as a freshman he was sent to the mound exclusively as a sophomore...where he sucked. After the mound thing failed he turned back to hitting where he, well, didn't.
-Stanford LHP Jeremy Bleich. Highly regarded out of Isidore Newman HS in New Orleans (Michael Lewis and the Manning bros alma mater). Decent freshman year and a crap sophomore year sandwich his good run on the Cape last summer. 88-90 fastball, can top at 92. Gets good marks for pitchability and intelligence.
-Maine IF Kevin McAvoy isn't anything special but he is a favorite of mine. Strong arm, muscular build, solid athlete, good power. He, along with SS Curt Smith..and really the whole Maine lineup, absolutely TERRORIZED Carolina and UNC-Wilmington's pitching staff in regional play last year to the tune of 26 runs in 2 games...and somehow managed to lose 'em both. Just wanted to throw that out there.
-Anyone know what scouts say about UGA SS Gordon Beckham? He's held down short for my Dawgs since Day 1 of his freshman year and showed good power but not too much contact. Do scouts think hes a legit SS?
Chisenhall and Fuller have a long road back to respectability--from a makeup standpoint.
-- MWE
This is basically a Craig Hansen deal...
His power's definitely for real, and there's aren't a lot of questions about his defense from what I can find. Whether he'll make enough contact to hit consistently in pro ball is the question. Before the season he sat around #100 in the top-200 prospects for '08, which suggests 3rd-4th round potential, but he probably moved up the charts after his 2007 campaign, especially when you realize that some of the people in front of him (e.g. Havens) moved down.
-- MWE
5 bucks says he has a better career than Luke Hochevar :P
-- MWE
-- MWE
The key for Weathers will be the extent to which he can throw his slider for strikes. That's been a problem for some college closers (I'm thinking Hansen and Devine, here) - they can blow the fastball down the chute, but they can't get the secondary stuff over, which allows major league hitters to sit on the fastball. That hasn't been much of a problem for Weathers in his college career, but the pros are a different story. Weathers is still pretty raw, too - this year was really his first full year in a key pitching role, after he started his career as a JuCo outfielder. I wouldn't rush things with him.
-- MWE
I can see the Reds, Pirates, Cardinals, Phillies all needing a closer-material pitcher...
The Cardinals might do it if he's still around at #36; I can't see them doing it at #18, especially since another college closer, Chris Perez (picked in the supplemental round a year ago), is doing well for Springfield. If they don't, the Phillies might at #37 if he's there.
The Giants have a boatload of picks (six of the first 51). I could see them using either the #22 or #29 pick on Weathers.
I can't see anyone else as a strong candidate for him.
-- MWE
-- MWE
Braves signed LHP Eric Barrett
White Sox signed LHP Hector Santiago
Marlins signed RHP William Jackel
Royals signed RHP Bryan Paukovits
Dodgers signed C Gorman Erickson
Brewers signed 3B Bryan Crosby
Mets signed RHP Phillips Orta
Athletics signed LHP Carlos Hernandez
Pirates signed SS Josue Peley
Cardinals signed RHP Mark Diapoules
Devil Rays signed RHP Angel Chapa, OF Kyeong Kang
Rangers signed LHP Derek Holland
Blue Jays signed 1B Kevin Denis-Fortier
-- MWE
The Tusculum roster lists Swaggerty as a senior, but doesnt give any bio info on him or any other players to see if hes a 5th year. I'd assume he is a redshirt senior and thus eligible to sign as a pre-draft free agent since he was undrafted last year. 5th year seniors who were drafted the previous year are considered draft and follows
What do you think about Devine? He's been pretty dominant as a pro with 129 Ks in 91 pro innings (even 13 Ks in 11.1 MLB innings). Now that he's had a chance to get healthy and catch his breath its been smooth sailing at AA Mississippi. Maybe he'll never be an elite closer, but it appears he can at least become a good set-up guy, who owns righties and could be ready soon.
From Rotoworld
The Padres announced that they're converting Matt Bush, the first overall pick in the 2004 draft, into a pitcher.
It's something that started to be seriously considered last year, and when Bush hit just .204 in 98 at-bats in high-A ball to begin 2007, the Padres chose to have him make the switch. Bush, who had a 0.42 ERA in 66 innings as a pitcher in high school, is said to "ecstatic" about the move. He would seem to have a better chance of reaching the majors as a reliever than he did as an infielder.
... Brandon Crawford (SS, UCLA) ...
I saw Crawford for the first time this weekend. He definitely stood out. He's got a very nice swing, though didn't display much patience. He wasn't tested much at short, but showed reasonably good footwork and an arm that was at least decent. I hope to make it out to more games next year.
Nah. That would probably be this guy, who was drafted ahead of this one.
-- MWE
He's got kind of a funky delivery, which might lead to command problems down the road. Other than that, there's not much else to dislike. He'll probably still be available in the supplemental round (he's around the back end of the top 50), so the Rangers don't necessarily have to take him with their first pick.
Interesting note: St. Clair was a HS teammate of Philip Hughes, and won pitcher-of-the-year honors in his district over Hughes as a HS senior.
-- MWE
Article on Bjelland signing
No way, Mike. Chilcott wasn't a worse pick than Bush. Put it this way: from everything I know, no one else would have picked Bush in the top five. But if what I've read about Chilcott/Jackson is true, every other team would have picked Chilcott in the top five in 1966 -- indeed, they seem to have been the consensus top two. Moreover, his career was derailed by injury rather than lack of talent -- sort of an earlier version of Brien Taylor. Sure, the Mets should have picked Reggie (and they didn't for some very bad reasons), but if the Padres get what they deserve, an equally great HOFer will emerge from the Bush draft to whom people will point as evidence of how stupid they were, too.
LF Kyeong Kang
SS Robi Estrada
C Mark Thomas
RHP Angel Chapa
LF Justin Reynolds
2B Michael Ross
Fifth-year seniors
RHP Brett Armour
LHP Keith Nelson
3B Jeffrey Carroll
BTW, also on Swaggerty, from BA's coverage of '06 summer leagues (Swaggerty played in the Southern Collegiate League, a low level circuit):
Who are some of the talented but tough signs that teams will be taking fliers on later in the draft?
-- MWE
Zach Jones, a HS catcher out of Utah who is committed to Stanford, isn't likely to sign unless he goes in the first five rounds. Jonathan Kaskow, a switch-hitting 1B from Texas who is also committed to the Cardinal, is another one. Stanford's usually pretty good at holding on to its recruits. Joey Manning, a raw Florida outfielder who is committed to Vanderbilt, could be taken on a flier, although most people think he'll be better off going to college.
-- MWE
By the way, man Stanfords a bad baseball team now..
Hadn't heard of him, but he went to one of my high school's rivals and is only 5 minutes from my parents' house. They also have the worst name ever, The Beetdiggers.
How far do you guys think Harvey will fall because of Boras?
Lower half of the first round, although not entirely because of Boras; he's fallen off some radars because he had some tough outings early in the spring. If I had to guess right now, I'd say he'd go to the Dodgers at #20.
-- MWE
-- MWE
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