Rule 4 Draft (DISCUSSION THREAD)
The Rule 4 draft will be held beginning at 2 PM on June 7, extending into June 8. Baseball America has the complete draft order for the first five rounds, with Arizona getting the additional draft pick (#65) if they fail to sign Max Scherzer by Thursday (a scenario which is looking pretty likely).
On Sunday, beginning at 2 PM Central Time, John Sickels will be hosting a mock draft, covering five rounds. I will be handling the Orioles, who have picks in only the 1st, 4th, and 5th rounds.
While Tampa’s front office insists that they haven’t yet made a decision, almost everyone expects the #1 pick to be Vanderbilt LHP David Price. The Royals, drafting 2nd, are likely to take Seton Hall Prep RHP Rick Porcello, even though Scott Boras is his “adviser”. Assuming those two picks go as advertised, the fun begins. The Cubs, picking 3rd, like Cypress (CA) HS 3B Josh Vitters, but might also go for Georgia Tech C Matt Wieters, who is also a Boras “advisee”, and who may very well drop to #10 (Giants) if the Cubs don’t take him, even though he’s a consensus top-5 player; it is very unlikely that any of the teams between the Cubs and the Giants would be interested in Wieters, either because of other needs or because of his Boras connection.
If Vitters isn’t available to the Pirates at #4, the guessing is that the Bucs will either take Lewis and Clark OF Beau Mills, who would be a bit of a reach at that level, or will opt for a safer college arm like Clemson lefty Daniel Moskos or Missouri State lefty Ross Detwiler. The Orioles are also interested in one of the two pitchers at #5.
If Scherzer does re-enter the draft pool, the speculation is that he’ll go to the Nationals at #6, because of Mike Rizzo’s presence there. Rizzo was, of course, with the Diamondbacks when they took Scherzer originally.
Andrew Brackman, the NC State pitcher who had been projected as a top-3 draft pick, has likely pitched his way out of the upper half of the first round. He’s missed his last two starts because of a “dead arm”, and might not be available to the Wolfpack for the NCAA tournament opener. There’s little question about Brackman’s skills, but the results just haven’t been there.
UPDATE: Jonathan Mayo checks in with his mock 1st round.
Reader Comments and Retorts
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Are you sure? Really, really sure?
Mesoraco would be a typical Pittsburgh draft pick - local kid, good enough to be drafted in the first round anyway, good PR pick, likely to sign quickly and potentially for a hometown discount. Dominguez would be less of a reach at #4; at least he has a power bat and can handle 3B.
The fact that they brought both of those players in is NOT a good sign - it indicates that signability is still driving the decision, no matter how strenuously Littlefield argues that it isn't.
-- MWE
MiLB Draft Projections
Seems like a remote chance of happening, but it'd be a shocker
-- MWE
I'm kind of surprised at that. I know he was well-regarded out of HS, I wish my Braves had signed him when they could have then, and hes been a great player at UVA but he doesnt stand out, prospect-wise, in any one area. Hes a real good pitcher, but doesnt have great stuff, and hes a smart, solid hitter without the power (although I guess 22 HRs in 3 years isnt bad in what I think is a pitchers park in the ACC) or frame that you think of in a first round 1B and hes not the kind of elite contact hitter to make up for that.
Of all the collegians you could overdraft to save money, is he just seen as such a safe bet at this point to be the one you target?
If signability is an issue this year with the changes they've made, then the Royals should just give up now.
HS pitchers, in particular, seem to be asking for a lot of money this year. Porcello, Harvey, and McGeary, to name just three, apparently have bonus demans that are way out of line with what teams are expecting to pay for their talent.
I don't know why the Royals should let signability concerns get in their way at this point, since they would get the equivalent of the #3 pick next year if whoever they draft this year doesn't sign, and there will likely be some good options available when they next pick at #66.
-- MWE
.. especially since on talent, there should be a reasonable chance that he'd be available when the Cubs pick at #48.
-- MWE
On an unrelated note - Sickels thinks that Corey Brown is underrated - however, I think he's, well, "rated". I like the diverse set of skills/tools, am not big on the Cape performance, K rate, off-field history, and note that he's played in a bandbox.
PG's take on their coverage.
Interestingly, since the draft will be going from Thursday til Friday (and maybe even Sat), instead of the usual Tuesday-Wednesday, instead of players starting superregional play fresh off of being drafted some players could be drafted at the exact moment they are on the mound or at the plate.
It'd be kind of cool to imagine a player learning of his draft status by a PA announcer going, "Now batting, the second baseman...Tyyylerrr Maaach. Who, about 3 minutes ago, was made the 12th round pick of the Toronto Blue Jays"
I don't expect that to happen of course though, it'd be better on the kids to let them know after the game, but its a fun idea to think of.
...who are more likely to go over slot.
-- MWE
The guy in our complex did get the call though and ended up playing in the Phillies system for a year or two.
I'd rather see AZ take Weathers at 9 rather than Schmidt. Moskos would be a nice pick there.
A couple of people. The nephew of a guy who owns a bar where I have lunch sometimes (first rounder a while back), and a kid from my freshman dorm in college (wasn't drafted, but seemed like he would be when he came in - freshman All-American).
BA apparently thinks a kid from my high school's getting drafted this year, which is kind of funny.
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