I'm game, and will take Toronto.

The questions is this: Will you follow the Pirates strategy of "only drafting guys that will be incredibly cheap for a very long time"? Also, if Porcello's available and you take him at #4, will you immediately call Dr. Andrews and schedule an arm surgery for him?

Personally, I'm following your Pittsburgh picks, if only to see you take Wieters. Neither of us ever have to talk to Scott Boras, though, so we don't have to worry about little things like that.

I'll take the Royals. Can I make good picks or am I bound to their franchise stupidity?

Under this system, wouldn't it be possible that the Matt Wieters or Rick Porcello gets taken 8-9 times?

I'll do this for RedSox. I probably won't be able to post it until this weekend, but I'll play fair.

I've done this a for a couple years. Net, Net I was a loser. I missed out on Papelbon but scored CJackson instead of big stupid swing II David Murphy.

Under this system, wouldn't it be possible that the Matt Wieters or Rick Porcello gets taken 8-9 times?

Yes, that's the side bet. I'm betting that, with as much as the talking heads on ESPN will blab, Wieters will be taken the most times. And he'll be more frustrating to me than Tim Lincecum/Brad Lincoln in a few years.

I've done this a for a couple years. Net, Net I was a loser. I missed out on Papelbon but scored CJackson instead of big stupid swing II David Murphy.

Ha. I did a shadow draft that year and I remember taking David Murphy for the Royals over Chris Lubanski.

Can I make good picks or am I bound to their franchise stupidity?

You can make whatever pick you want to make, using whatever set of criteria you want to use. If you want to take signability into consideration, feel free.

When I post mine, I'll explain my reasoning for the choice I made, and discuss some of the alternatives I evaluated.

-- MWE

i'll-post-mine,though-i-won't-be-doing-a-real-team...i'll-pick-31st-in-each-round(no-sup-picks).
may-not-be-up-today,given-a-keyboard-mapping-issue-i'm-going-through...

With the #4 pick in the first round, and Moustakas and Vitters gone, I take Jason Heyward, OF/1B, Henry County HS, McDonough, GA, for the Pirates. I considered Wieters, but I'm concerned that Wieters isn't going to get much better than he is right now, while Heyward has a ton of upside, and the Bucs need corner prospects more than a guy who is pretty much limited to C.

The Pirates actually take Daniel Moskos, Clemson LHP. He actually hasn't started all that much, but he does have four pitches (although only two are above-average). I'd rather have had Detwiler if you're going the college route.

-- MWE

LaPorta to the Brewers. That's the first real surprise of the draft, IMO.

-- MWE

I'm gonna jump the gun and do a shadow pick for the Angels here ... normally I would say they should draft whoever Tom Kotchman tells them to. He covers Florida, and is responsible for Kendrick, Shields, and (of course) Casey (amongst several other intriguing prospects). So that would mean a Florida prep or JuCo player ... unfortunately, I read at BA that this is a weak prep class out of Florida, and no one drafts a JuCo in the supplemental, so who knows.

So behind Florida I'll go with ... Maryland or Arizona, with California as the back-up.

Let's say, Michael Burgess, if he last that long.

Let's say, Michael Burgess, if he last that long.

He might very well make it to #58.

-- MWE

Very glad that Jason Heyward made it to #14 for the Braves. Thats my shadow selection. At #33 I missed Nick Noonan by 1 pick so it'll be Nevin Griffith.

At #33 I missed Nick Noonan by 1 pick so it'll be Nevin Griffith.

The Braves actually took Jon Gilmore, a 3B from Iowa City HS. Gilmore slipped on a lot of boards largely because there was a lot of poor weather in Iowa this year, which kept scouts from seeing much of him. He's got a solid stroke, could add some power. I like this pick better than I like Griffith, who I think is overrated.

-- MWE

Burgess didn't make it to 58; the Nationals took him at 49.

-- MWE

DAMN YOU PADRES, taking my pick!!!!

Whoops, I mean Nationals.

Okay, I'll take ... Corey Brown.

Not Matt Harvey? :)

I was looking for OF help. Oh well.

And the A's take Brown one pick after the Angels!

Angels actually take John Bachanov, a raw HS righty out of Florida. He needs a lot of work on his mechanics.

-- MWE

Kyle Blair instead of Joshua Fields at #69 for the Bravos.

Heh Freddie Freeman. like the name

My Round 2 pick, which I made tentatively before leaving for the ballpark, was Kentrail Davis, Alabama HS outfielder. Davis has been compared to Kirby Puckett, and his skill set is actually quite similar to Puckett's. I considered Travis Mattair, who ultimately went to the Phillies later in the round, and who I picked for the Marlins in Sickels's mock draft, but I thought Davis had more to offer in an organization (still) starved for quality OF prospects beyond McCutchen.

The Pirates actually took Matt "Duke" Welker, Arkansas RHP. Welker has good stuff, but doesn't miss enough bats for me; he's another good fastball/marginal secondary pitch/marginal command guy. Second round was too high, IMO.

-- MWE

Davis is "advised" by Boras, and hasn't been picked in the real draft yet. Hmmm....

Third pick: Victor Sanchez, 3B, Gahr HS, Norwalk CA. He's been compared to last year's first-rounder Evan Longoria, and while he's not that talented, and he did have an off-year this year, his skills are very similar. He's a gap hitter with possible 15-20 HR power, hits well to all fields, and is solid defensively.

The Pirates actually took SS Brian Friday from Rice. I see him as Jack Wilson redux.

-- MWE

Fourth pick: Charlie Furbush, LHP, LSU (who went later in the round to the Tigers). This is about the level at which I typically start looking for college pitchers, and Furbush strikes me as someone who could be about as good as Welker, picked two rounds higher by the Bucs. Furbush had an outstanding season in the Cape Cod league last year, but struggled in his debut in Division 1 (as did his team). He's got a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a hard, slurvy slider, and an improving change. He needs work on his delivery and control. I think he's a much better risk as a 4th-rounder than Welker was as a 2nd-rounder.

The Pirates actually took OF Quincy Lattimore from my neck of the woods; my stepdaughter went to his HS, Middle Creek in Apex. This is IMO a serious overdraft; Lattimore doesn't really have the speed or arm for CF, and doesn't project to have enough power for a corner.

-- MWE

Fifth pick: Kyle Blair, RHP, Los Gatos HS, Monte Serrano, CA (the Dodgers got him later in the fifth). Fastball/curve combo; the fastball is average, the curve is outstanding. His command of his fastball needs to improve, he needs to improve his changeup, and he relies too much on the curve. Sort of a junior-grade Bobby Bradley. I considered several HS pitchers here, including ASU commitments Seth Blair (no relation to Kyle) and Brett Zawacki and Florida HS right Sean Koecheler.

The Pirates actually took TCU C Andrew Walker. Walker's a solid across-the-board catcher who doesn't have anything that stands out.

-- MWE

I made the Blair pick before reading #24. Great minds think alike :)

-- MWE

Pirates about to pick in round 6. P Matt Foust, Nebraska. Profiles as a reliever.

I'd have taken DeVon Torrence, OF from Canton South HS. He has a football commitment to Ohio State but has gone out of his way to attend baseball camps. Switch-hitting CF, good defensively and developing power.

-- MWE

Round 7 coming up. Juan Garcia, C, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy.

I'd have taken Andrew Lambo, 1B/OF, Newbury Park HS (the Dodgers got him later). Line-drive hitting player with 15-20 HR power potential and good defensive skills; not too dissimilar to Adam LaRoche, actually.

-- MWE

Round 8: Pirates select Maurice Bankston, RHP, Texarkana CC. I know absolutely nothing about him.

I'd have taken Christian Colon, SS from Canyon HS, Anaheim Hills, CA. Good defender with gap power, but the bat may not play.

-- MWE

Round 9: Pirates take Tony Watson, P, Nebraska. I'll keep this pick; he's a good value at this level.

-- MWE

Round 10 (my last shadow pick, since it gets to be guesswork below this level): Pirates take Sean Giblin, RHP, Pearl River (NY) HS. I'll take Sean Koecheler, RHP, Palm Beach Gardens HS.

-- MWE

So everyone going to post their shadow drafts?

Here's my first few rounds. Notes: I tend toward college guys because I don't trust my ability to scout preps... I allot myself a mid-sized draft budget, which means getting to pick a few signability guys since I pick so late and lack compensatory selections. Blah, blah.

1/31 - Austin Jackson, ss, HS-NC. I was 50/50 between Jackson and Josh Smoker, with Todd Frazier my third choice. Ultimately, I decided that Jackson may have been overscouted (hence his fall in the rankings this year), I don't see any real weaknesses to his game.
2/96 - Kyle Blair, rhp, HS-CA. Apparently, he's less signable than I thought ... eeew.
3/127 - Kyle Russell, rf, Texas. Known signability risk + he has a BSS (big stupid swing), but the power is worth the risk. I think his range in RF is underrated.
4/158 - Bobby Crosby, lhp, HS-IL. My understanding is that he wants to play baseball, so I pulled the trigger even though it seemed like he was falling in the draft.
5/189 - Justin Miller, rhp, Johnston CC (KS). Rawish arm, but good tools and signable. You'll start to see more cheap picks as I make up for some of the costly guys above.
6/220 - Damon Sublett, 2b, Wichita State. I actually like just as much as a reliever, but that won't be his role unless he doesn't hit. He's *this* close to be really good in a lot of ways - just short on range for short, hitting standards at second are higher, could use an extra mph or two on his fastball for the pen (89-91, plus a very good curve. Dude was an outstanding college reliever, when healthy).
7/251 - Adam Mills, rhp, Charlotte (incidentally, Tony Watson was my 2nd choice here). Partly made to save a little $ (senior), but he was tremendous in '07.
8/282 - Austin Krum, cf, Dallas Baptist. This is actually a redraft for me - I took him in a junk round years ago. Kind of a tweener, but the bice thing about those guys is if they get 10% better at everything, you've suddenly got a very well rounded player.
9/313 - Dom de la Osa, if/of, Vanderbilt. I'd like him to play in the infield (third), but expect to see him in right. Not sure if he'll sign this low.
10/344 - Matt Hague, 3b, Washington. Unlike BA, I see him staying at third.
11/375 - Gary Brown, cf, HS-CA. Unlikely to sign, but I'm big on him.
12/396 - Steven Hill, c/1b, S.F. Austin. Put up monster power numbers in a pitchers park, plus he might be able to catch.
13/427 - Josh Collmenter, Central Michigan. Junk pitcher, who was very good in the MAC and added velocity towards the end of the year.

I'm not thrilled with this draft, frankly. Anyone want to weigh in?

(keyboard fixed, btw.)

Late posting this, because I've been hella busy this weekend, but better late than never.

Shadow Draft (Pirates) 2007

1 (4) Jason Heyward, OF, Henry County H.S., McDonough, GA [Actual pick: 14]
2 (68) Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Liberty-Elyau H.S. Texarkana, TX [Actual pick: 174]
3 (98) Kyle Blair, RHP, Los Gatos H.S., Los Gatos, CA [Actual pick: 176]
4 (128) Julian Sampson, RHP, Skyline H.S., Skyline, WA [Actual pick: 383]
5 (158) Gary Brown, 2B/SS/CF (work it out in camp), Diamond Bar H.S., Walnut, CA [Actual pick: 390]
6 (188) Taylor Cole, RHP, Bishop Gorman H.S., Las Vegas, NV [Actual pick: 806]
7 (218) Kade Keowen, OF, Louisiana State - Eunice J.C. [Actual pick: 294]
8 (248) Justin Grimm, RHP, Virginia H.S., Bristol, VA. [Actual pick: 414]
9 (278) Matt Clark, 1B, Riverside C.C., Riverside, CA [Actual pick: 848]
10 (308) Stephen Vogt, C, Azusa Pacific, CA [Actual pick: 365]

Out of deference to the org's tendencies, I deliberately tried not to take any Boras clients, or any guys who would've been ludicrously unlikely to sign at the slot where I took them. I might have to go a little over slot for a few, but on the whole, I think it's workable for most guys (with Clark being the biggest risk to walk - but a 9th round pick isn't valuable enough that I was reluctant to gamble there).

Unfortunately, it looks like a bunch of 'em went low enough in the real draft that they won't sign. I mean, Cole was supposedly signable through the 5th, so 4 picks into the 6th isn't terrible, but at the slot where he was taken... I doubt it. Same probably goes for Sampson, Brown, and Clark (who the real Pirates took late on day 2).

And then again, there's the whole question as to whether Vogt can actually catch...

Now I'm second-guessing myself. Maybe I'm crazy and none of these guys will sign for anything like what I'd offer. I could deal with that, I guess, as long as I get Heyward. Honestly, I'd probably be willing to pull a Ditka for him...

I didn't take Cole because I read somewhere that he was unlikely to sign (can't remember the source) and Grimm because, uh, I forgot about him. Oops. I like the Vogt pick - I had him on my list, but thought he'd drop further than he did. In a low round (not shown as I don't do the lower rounds blind), I tabbed his lesser clone Ben Barrone (marginally better defense, but take away the plate discipline and ability to hit an offspeed pitch).

Oh, I took Casey Crosby, not Bobby - but I guess that's obvious.

I think I'm one of the few who don't like Colon - don't think he'll hit much.

"I didn't take Cole because I read somewhere that he was unlikely to sign (can't remember the source)"

Judging from the way he dropped like a rock in the real draft, you may be right. The only mention I'd seen one way or the other was in his individual player writeup on BA (subscribers only, link here), where they said that he was telling scouts he'd sign for 5th round money, so that's what I went with when I slotted him in there. I figured Bud wouldn't get too upset if we paid 184th pick money to the the 188th pick.

Royals shadow draft:

1 (2) IF Michael Moustakas, California HS
Ideally I would have liked to have taken Wieters, but (a) the Royals weren't going to put up the money and (b) the Royals aren't going to piss off the Commissioner's office by paying over slot money because they're trying to land the All-Star game. So realistically, Porcello and Wieters were off the table. Jarrod Parker intrigued me, but there is too much risk with HS pitchers to use the #2 overall pick on. Moustakas has tremendous power, and although I doubt his ability to play SS, there is surely somewhere on the diamond the Royals can put him to utilize his bat.
2 (66) RHP Nevin Griffith, Florida HS
Judging by the scouting reports, Griffith is pretty polished for a HS kid. This draft is supposedly deep in high school pitching talent, so taking a high upside kid in the second round seemed smart. Pepperdine RHP Barry Enright seemed awfully enticing too.
3 (96) RHP Sam Demel, Texas Christian University
I know that he's "just a reliever", but he's close to MLB ready, and doesn't have much risk. The Royals could use some guys that will arrive soon.
4 (126) RHP Travis Banwart, Wichita State University
A local guy. WSU doesn't exactly have a great track record in developing major leaguers, but Banwart is polished and still youngish for a college kid
5 (156) RHP Jake Arrieta, Texas Christian University
Why not get both of the Horned Frogs best pitchers? Arrieta, if signed, could be close to MLB ready
6 (186) SS Fernando Cruz, Puerto Rico HS
The Royals picked this guy and I have no qualms about it. Very young, but has upside. Worth a gamble in the sixth round.
7 (216) LHP Scott Maine, University of Miami
Tremendous story. Got in a major car accident but has come back to put together a fantastic season. Has injury past, but seems polished.
8 (246) RHP Greg Peavey, Washington HS
I'm guessing signability issues here. He is mature and can throw in the low 90s. Good projectability if he can be lured away from college.
9 (276) 2B Matt Cusick, USC
Seems like a heady player. Not great tools, but nice BB-K numbers. Possible utility infielder.
10 (306) RHP Austin Bailey, Alabama HS
Kid can throw in the mid 90s. Needs to develop second pitch. That's worth a tenth round gamble.

I'm not sure this draft has as much upside as the Royals would like, but some of the college guys could be in the majors soon, although with limited ceilings. That would at least bring the Royals back to respectability, in contrast to the talentless drafts they produced in the late 90s that have brought them to where they are today.

Going back to mine:

1/4: Heyward (1/14)
2/68: K. Davis (14/432) - Boras client
3/98: V. Sanchez (25/757)
4/128: Furbush (4/151)
5/158: K. Blair (5/176)
6/188: Torrence (16/501)
7/218: Lambo. He actually went in the fourth round, but somehow I misread the site and thought he was still available. I wound up with David Mailman instead (7/234).
8/248: Colon (10/327)
9/288: Watson (9/288)
10/318: Koecheler (20/626)

Davis and Torrence dropped because of signability considerations. I don't know why Sanchez and Koecheler dropped.

-- MWE

I think I'm one of the few who don't like Colon - don't think he'll hit much.

I'm not sure he will, either. But I think that's a better gamble in round 8 than picking Friday, about whom I have similar questions, five rounds earlier.

-- MWE

Definitely agree with you on Friday/Colon, Mike.
Sanchez was a signability thing too; I don't know about Koecheler.

AG1F: Not sure if the commish would have a bigger issue with you landing Peavey and Arrieta than with Wieters, but what do I know?

Oddly, only one of my players would have been available in the next round had I waited on them (Blair). On the other hand, I lost a few guys by thinking they'd be around if I waited a little longer while I tabbed signability risks.

"I wound up with David Mailman instead (7/234)."

Ooh, nice! If he signs there, he's a nice guy to have.

"On the other hand, I lost a few guys by thinking they'd be around if I waited a little longer while I tabbed signability risks."

I was disagreeably surprised by how quickly the catchers went. I was particularly nonplussed when Michael Ambort went in the 6th.