Sleeper Prospects: AL

Installment #2, looking at the AL list of guys who aren’t on a lot of radar screens but who have a chance to be productive players some day.

For some reason, there are a lot more undrafted free agents from overseas in this group. That wasn’t exactly by design, although I do think the AL teams do a better job covering Latin America and the Far East than do the NL teams; it probably has more to do with the relative amount of coverage that AL farm systems tend to get.

Baltimore: David Hernandez, RHP
Age 21, Drafted: 2005, 16th round

Hernandez fits the mold of pitcher with excellent stuff/needs better command and a passable third pitch that you find in many organizations. He has the low 90s fastball and moving slider that you like to see, but he walks too many guys and leaves the slider up in the zone far too often. He’s also averaged 9 2/3 K/9 over his career so far, even given those shortcomings. In an organization which isn’t especially hip-deep in prospects, he could show up on some top 10 lists.

Boston: Tony Granadillo, 3B
Age 22, Selected by Red Sox from Cardinals in 2004 minor league Rule 5 draft

It’s hard to find a guy in Boston’s system who can truly be said to be “under the radar”, thanks to guys like TempleUSox, philly, and the SoSH crowd, but Granadillo hasn’t had quite the hype of some of the other lower-tier prospects. Tony played for a couple of years in the Venezuelan Summer League after signing with St. Louis at age 16 in 2001. The Cards brought him to the States in 2004, just in time for him to become rule 5 eligible, and the Red Sox snapped him up in the AAA portion of Rule 5. The switch-hitter split 2005 between the GCL and Greenville, and returned to low-A ball this year, where he flashed some pop, acceptable contact skills, a decent enough batting eye, and excellent defense at 3B (by all reports) – he’s played some SS in the past. Granadillo still has some work to do, especially from the left side of the plate, and he was old for low-A ball last year, but he’s making nice progress and I could see him hitting Portland by the end of the year if he continues to refine his stroke.

Chicago White Sox: Aaron Cunningham, OF
Age 20, Drafted: 2005, 6th round

Cunningham isn’t exactly a sleeper, but there’s no one here that I really like as a sleeper pick; the two guys I would have considered, Cortes and Lumsden, both got traded. He rocketed onto BA’s top 10 list for the White Sox this year after hitting .305/.386/.496 for a bad Kannapolis team, albeit in just 95 games (he missed some time with an ankle injury). Cannon Fieldcrest Stadium is a difficult park for hitters; Cunningham posted a .914 OPS on the road. He played all three OF positions for the Intimidators this year, but projects right now as a left fielder because he doesn’t get good reads in the outfield (although he does have the tools for CF).

Cleveland: Jordan Brown, OF
Age 22, Drafted: 2005, 4th round

The Indians thought enough of Brown to skip him over Lake County and directly to Kinston to start 2006, and he didn’t disappoint them. He made consistent contact, delivered 26 doubles, 7 triples, and 15 longballs among his 137 hits, and showed a good batting eye as well. He’s not a strong defender, being limited to LF, and he doesn’t project to add a lot of power; the concern here is that he might already be about as good as he’s going to get (which isn’t good enough to be more than a fourth OF).

Detroit: Michael Hollimon, SS
Age 24, Drafted: 2005, 16th round

29 doubles, 13 triples, and 15 HRs at West Michigan this year gets him onto the radar screen. The age is a big negative, though, as are the strikeouts (124 in 449 ABs). He’s got to make solid contact more consistently than that. He’s a legitimate shortstop, not a needs-to-move-to-a-corner type, but he’s going to have to move up quickly and learn to lay off the pitches that he can’t handle.

Kansas City: Mario Lisson, 3B
Age 22, Signed as undrafted free agent (Venezuela), 2002

Lisson and Granadillo, both from Venezuela and roughly the same age, have some similarities between them. Both showed some power development in their second pass through low-A ball, although Lisson’s improvement was in a tougher environment for hitters, and both are excellent defenders at 3B who can play SS on occasion without embarrassing themselves or their team. Lisson is a right-handed hitter all the way, and less advanced as a hitter than Granadillo, but he’s moving in the right direction.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Jose Arredondo, RHP
Age 22, Signed as undrafted free agent (Dominican Republic), 2002

Arredondo blew through the Cal League, fanning 115 and walking 35 in 90 innings, then found the going much rougher at Arkansas (not the first pitcher nor the last to have that problem). He’s a converted shortstop who hasn’t been pitching all that long (just 86 1/3 IP in the US minors prior to 2006) and is still learning how to pitch. His fastball is in the mid-90s, but it flattens out on him all too often, his secondary pitches aren’t good enough yet to be reliable, and he’s still working on smoothing out the kinks in his delivery. He has more ceiling than any pitcher in this organization except Adenhart (with the caveat that I know almost nothing about Jung), but can he get there before his options expire?

Minnesota: Eduardo Morlan, RHP
Age 20, Drafted: 2004, 3rd round

Morlan got 51 1/3 innings at Beloit in 2005 after four dominant starts at Elizabethton, fanning 55 but walking 31 and posting a 4.38 ERA. The Twins elected to be cautious with him in 2006, starting him in the Snappers’ bullpen early on before re-inserting him into the rotation, and then sitting him for a month in late June/early July with a back injury. The results were gratifying: Morlan’s strikeouts went up, his walks dropped, he gave up only one more HR in twice as many innings as a year earlier in the Midwest League, and he posted a 2.29 ERA in 106 1/3 IP. Morlan touches 100 on the radar gun, and he not only has an outstanding curve and change but isn’t afraid to use them in fastball counts. The main issues with him are the usual young-pitcher issues – command and consistency. He also has a high-effort, potentially high-risk delivery (which may have led to the back problems). Again, Morlan’s ceiling is as high as anyone’s; he just has to stay healthy and hold onto his gains from 2006.

New York Yankees: Alan Horne, RHP
Age 23, Drafted: 2005, 11th round

Horne debuted in the Florida State League this year, after signing too late to pitch in 2005, and became something of a forgotten man. He had trouble locating his pitches consistently, largely because the Yankees were working on his delivery, and he wasn’t all that impressive numbers-wise, posting a 4.84 ERA, allowing 12 HRs (but only two after June 1), and walking 61 while fanning 122 in 122 2/3 IP. His season really wasn’t as bad as it looked, considering everything that the Yankees were trying to accomplish with him. Apart from the walks and homers, which I think can be attributed in part to the tinkering that the Yankees were doing with him, his other peripherals were quite good – and everything got better as the season went on. I think he’s still a good bet to be successful.

Oakland: Jason Ray, RHP
Age 22, Drafted: 2005, 8th round

Another converted position player who is still getting a feel for pitching, Ray was outstanding at Kane County, less so after a midseason promotion to Stockton. Like many converted position players, Ray’s consistency comes and goes. He has two outstanding pitches – a mid-90s fastball and a sharp-breaking curve – but doesn’t have solid command over the latter and can be hittable when he can’t get it over. Without a serviceable third pitch, he’s more likely to be in the bullpen than in the rotation in the majors, but there’s still a lot of upside here. His peripherals at Stockton were actually not all that bad; he just got burned every time he made a mistake.

Seattle: Yung-Chi Chen, 2B
Age 23, Signed as undrafted free agent (Taiwan), 2004

I liked his 2005 season in Wisconsin better than I liked his 2006 season, split between the Cal League and the Texas League, even though his overall performance numbers were better at the higher levels. It’s not that Chen didn’t take a step forward in ’06, but given the environments in which he was playing, it was a relatively small step forward, IMO, not as large as it appears in the raw numbers. His defense appears to be acceptable at 2B, although there’s been some talk about playing him at 3B because of his outstanding arm. I think he has to take one more step forward with the bat.

Tampa: Jonathan Barratt, LHP
Age 21, Drafted: 2003, 5th round

Barratt’s the ultimate small left-handed pitcher (5’10”, 150) who will have to prove himself at every level. Tampa jumped him past SW Michigan in 2005 to pitch at Visalia, a move that did not work out very well. So he went back to the Cal League to start 2006, and Barratt wound up posting the best numbers on a starting staff that included two higher-valued prospects, James Houser and Chris Mason. He doesn’t have great stuff – upper 80s fastball, good but not great offspeed stuff – and his stature is definitely going to work against him. He battles every hitter, every pitch, kept RHB under control, and had good K/9 and K/BB numbers as well as good HIP numbers considering the league. AA will tell us a lot more about him, but I’m not going to bet against him.

Texas: Omar Poveda, RHP
Age 19, Signed as undrafted free agent (Venezuela), 2004

To me, what says the most about Poveda’s potential is this: When the 18-YO was called up to make a spot start at Frisco in July, he walked five, fanned one, and allowed four hits in five innings – yet kept the damage to just two runs (one earned). His numbers were not spectacular in low-A: 4-13, a 4.88 ERA, 167 hits allowed in 149 1/3 IP, but keep in mind that (a) he was pitching as a 18-YO in full-season ball, (b) Clinton had a terrible team around him, and (c) he showed improvement over the season before wearing down at the end. I think he’ll probably start back in low-A this year rather than being sent to the Cal League meat grinder. I like his arm, I like his poise, and I like his instincts.

Toronto: Chi-Hung Cheng, LHP
Age 21, Signed as undrafted free agent (Taiwan), 2003

Cheng doesn’t throw hard (upper 80s) and lacks consistency and command (sounds familiar), but his breaking stuff and changeup are outstanding. He needs to be more aggressive, especially in fastball counts, because hitters in the upper minors won’t chase the curveball. But the curve and change are major-league quality pitches, and learning when to throw the fastball (even if just for show) will help him a lot.