Sleeper Prospects: NL

Mister High Standards, during one of the Primer World Series chats, asked if I would point out some “sleepers” among the minor leaguers – and I’m going to try to oblige.

In some ways, I don’t think there are any real “sleepers” any more, in the sense of someone who comes out of nowhere; there’s far too much coverage on the Internet for anyone to do that. The players I’m listing here are probably known to some of you, especially those of you who follow specific teams on a regular basis and know the third-string catcher on the short-season team. But these are guys who (a) aren’t on a lot of national radar screens, (b) have had some success, and (c) also have enough tools/skills, in my best assessment of the scouting reports on them, to succeed as they move up the ladder as well. None of these guys are likely to be stars, but I think most will eventually be useful major leaguers.

With occasional exceptions, I haven’t seen a lot of these players play; I’m relying to the same set of scouting reports and stats that you do. I tend to rely more on intuition and evalution of trends in the actual performance data, supported by the scouting information available, than I do on MLEs or other stat translations, so keep that in mind. I make heavy use of Jeff Sackmann’s Minor League Splits site – you should, too.

This installment covers the NL; AL will follow in a couple of days.

Arizona: Eduardo Baeza, RHP
Age 22, Drafted: 47th round, 2004

Baeza signed as a draft-and-follow prior to the 2005 draft. The Diamondbacks sent him to Missoula, where he broke in with a bang, pitching 40 innings with a 2.25 ERA and 50 Ks against just 13 walks and 31 hits allowed. It was more of the same to start 2006 at low-A South Bend, this time as a starter where he allowed 45 hits in 55 1/3 IP, fanning 53 and walking 15. This earned him a promotion to high-A Lancaster, where he ran into the Cal League wall. He was hit hard, his command deserted him, and he was finally shut down with some shoulder woes. I think this was just a temporary aberration – Lancaster can do that to pitching prospects – and I haven’t been able to find out anything about his health, which I’m not necessarily taking as a good sign. If he’s healthy, he bears watching; he dials it into the mid-90s and throws a beautiful curve ball with a lot of late break as well.

Atlanta: Kala Ka’aihue, 1B
Age 21, signed as a free agent.

Ka’aihue was drafted by Boston in 2003, but opted for junior college, then didn’t sign as a draft-and-follow and wasn’t drafted after graduating, making him available to the Braves as a minor league free agent. He definitely has a power bat, although his contact rate is a little low; he smacked 28 home runs this year, including 13 in 53 games in the power hitters’ nightmare that is Myrtle Beach. He’s not a polished hitting prospect by any means, and he’s going to have to make solid contact more frequently. But anyone who can reach double-digits in dingers at Coastal Federal Field in less than half a season there deserves to be put on the watch list.

Chicago: Mitch Atkins, RHP
Age 21, Drafted: 7th round, 2004

Atkins blossomed in 2006 at Peoria after two so-so years in the organization, posting a 13-4 log, a 2.41 ERS and a 127/53 K/BB ratio in 138 1/3 IP. He throws in the low-90s, and his changeup really took a big step forward this year, becoming a third “out pitch” to go with the fastball and curve. He’s also not afraid to work inside. Atkins doesn’t have “great” stuff, but I like his work ethic and his approach.

Cincinnati: Cody Strait, OF
Age 23, Drafted: 12th round, 2004

This was a tough organization in which to find a guy that I liked. I’ve seen Chattanooga and Louisville play a lot the last few years, and no one has passed through there at all that I’d even classify as a “potential” sleeper. Strait, at least, has shown some signs of power development (36 doubles and 17 HR at Sarasota in 2006), and he has cut down some on his strikeouts, which is another positive sign. He didn’t do much in the AFL, and I think Chattanooga will be a major test for him; he needs to add about 20 points to his BA.

Colorado: Seth Smith, OF
Age 24, Drafted: 2nd round, 2004

He’s hit everywhere he’s played and posted back-to-back seasons of 45 and 46 doubles in 2005 and 2006. He improved his walk rate and cut his Ks significantly in 2006, in part (I think) due to having laser eye surgery following 2005 (which also helped his D, although he still has room for improvement there). In the Holliday/Hawpe mold, I think.

Florida: Ryan Tucker, RHP
Age 19, Drafted: 1st round (supplemental), 2005

Given teams in Zebulon and Greensboro, I probably know as much about this organization’s prospects as any, and I was hard-pressed to find someone for this slot. There’s really no one not already in Miami (Jose Garcia) who’s played above Greensboro who I’d consider to be a good candidate. Tucker’s not really a sleeper; I put him here because he’s been overshadowed by the other three HS pitchers (Volstad, Thompson, and West) that the Marlins selected in the first 44 picks in 2005. Tucker has the most upside of any of them, in my opinion; he can hit 95-96 fairly consistently with movement. But he has to learn how to throw strikes, and he has to learn when to mix in his other pitches.

Houston: Drew Sutton, INF
Age 23, Drafted: 15th round, 2004

The Astros have a history of placing their position players at least a level below where they should be given their age. Sutton by rights should have been in AA a year ago, especially after not being overmatched a year earlier in half a season with the Avalanche, but Houston kept him in the Virginia mountains all season in 2006 anyway. Sutton’s flashed good HR power for a middle infielder and pretty good contact skills; he does get pull-happy on occasion, however, and has more than his share of weak pops and lazy fly balls as a result. He doesn’t quite have the arm for SS, so he’s likely to wind up at 2B; I think he’s about the same player as Chris Burke.

Los Angeles: Wesley Wright, LHP
Age 21, Drafted: 7th round, 2003

In an organization with a huge number of hyped (and over-hyped) prospects, Wright’s managed to fly under the radar, in part because he’s a smallish (5-11, 160) lefty without overwhelming stuff – his fastball tops out in the low 90s, although he does have a top-shelf breaking pitch. Still, Wright dominated at Vero Beach, made it to AA and pitched better than his ERA there indicates, and also pitched well in the Hawaiian Winter League. He needs to throw more strikes, and he works up in the zone a bit too much. The Dodgers have used him in relief throughout his minor league career, but he did start four games in Hawaii, and I’d like to see him get a trial as a starter. He doesn’t appear to have huge platoon splits, handling RHB very well a year ago, and if he can continue doing that he has more of a future than the LOOGY role.

Milwaukee: Steve Hammond, LHP
Age 24, Drafted: 6th round, 2005

Hammond is a sinker/slider guy, another lefty without overwhelming stuff. The Brewers drafted him out of Long Beach and started him at the lowest levels of the minors, where he was pretty old for the leagues. In ’06, he opened at Brevard County but reached Huntsville in mid-season. He’s pitched well at every stop, and the key for him I think was handling his first AA exposure without missing a step. I did catch his lone start at Carolina, where he pitched five scoreless innings before faltering in the sixth and taking a loss (aided in no small amount by lack of defensive and bullpen support). He also handled RHB well, which should squelch the talk I’ve heard about putting him in the bullpen. Like Wright, he absolutely needs to work the bottom half of the zone more consistently.

New York: Nick Evans, 1B
Age 20, Drafted: 5th round, 2004

33 doubles and 15 HR at Hagerstown this year – some of that, particularly the double total, is helped by the ballpark, but it’s not all park-fueled. He was drafted as a 3B but was quickly moved to 1B; if he’d stayed at 3B he’d probably be on a lot more radars. I think he’ll add power; the question will be “how much” and “how soon”.

Philadelphia: Mike Costanzo, 3B
Age 23, Drafted: 2nd round, 2005

Mike Costanzo is not normally the type of player that I’d recommend as a sleeper pick. He doesn’t make contact at the rate that I would like to see, and he’s a bit overage at 23, not having sniffed AA yet. He also has a pretty hefty platoon split. Still, there’s a lot to like here – 33 doubles and 14 HRs in the Florida State League, good results on balls in play, and solid defense at 3B (from all reports). As a high draft pick in an organization with few good position player prospects, he’s going to get a lot of opportunities to succeed.

Pittsburgh: Todd Redmond, RHP
Age 21, Drafted: 39th round, 2004

Redmond throws a low-90s fastball, has an outstanding curve, and needs to develop his changeup more. Sound familiar? This is the pitching profile of just about every back-end-of-the-rotation starter candidate in the minor leagues, and Redmond is no exception, except that he’s had more success than most of them. Redmond handles LHB and RHB equally well, and hitters haven’t been getting good results on contact. He’s going to have to keep proving himself at every level (which also sounds familiar).

St. Louis: Bryan Anderson, C
Age 20 (in December), Drafted: 4th round, 2005

Anderson’s probably not really a sleeper, either; I expect him to show up on Cardinal top-10 lists this year. After an auspicious debut in 2005 at Johnson City, the Cardinals skipped Anderson over short-season ball (apparently, from one report I read, giving serious consideration to sending him all the way to AA Springfield) and placed him at Quad Cities at age 19 to start 2006. Anderson didn’t disappoint, batting .302 with 29 doubles. He’s a line-drive hitter who likely will not develop much long-ball power, but who makes solid contact most of the time and gets good results when he does. The reports on his defense are mixed; he has a strong and accurate arm but needs to develop better footwork and work on handling pitches in the dirt. Neil Walker has more hype, but I personally like Anderson’s future better.

San Diego: Kyle Blanks, 1B
Age 20, Drafted: 42nd round, 2004

Blanks lost the last couple of months of 2006 to a leg infection, but before that flashed the power stroke that the Padres were hoping to see when they signed him as a DFE prior to the 2005 draft. Blanks had 20 doubles and 10 HRs in 355 PAs before going down. He’s a big guy (6’7”, 280) but agile for his size, from the reports I’ve seen. His contact rate is on the low side, but again he gets good results when he does make contact. The Padres will probably move him up slowly, but he’s the type of guy I might like to see challenged with a promotion to AA by mid-season.

San Francisco: Benj Copeland, OF
Age 23 (in December), Drafted: 4th round, 2005

Old for the level, speed guy who doesn’t quite have the range for CF nor the power for a corner (so he might be difficult to slot), and not a particularly good base stealer (30/51). He has two things going for him; he gets on base and he has extra-base ability (29 doubles and 12 triples), so he’s not just a “slappin’ swifty”. Probably fourth outfielder candidate, but might be able to work his way into a starting position on some teams if he can keep the BA high.

Washington: Marco Estrada, RHP
Age 23, Drafted: 6th round, 2005

Estrada separated his shoulder in spring training and didn’t pitch until June, then after rehabbing in the GCL he made his way to Savannah, where he couldn’t get the ball over the plate consistently and was hammered when he did get it over. Nonetheless, the Nats thought enough of him to send him to Hawaii for winter ball, where something clicked; he made BA’s top-10 prospect list for HWB after holding hitters to a .188 BA against in 30 1/3 IP for Waikiki, fanning 33. He doesn’t throw hard (around 90 tops), but his curveball is outstanding (when he gets it over) and he’s got a good – and improving – changeup. He has to throw strikes consistently with something other than his fastball if he wants to be successful.