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Notes in a Minor Key
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Thursday, August 31, 2006

Some observations

as the minor league season winds down:

Luke Hochevar has made three starts for low-A Burlington, pitching 9 1/3 innings. He’s allowed 4 hits, one run (unearned), walked two, and fanned 10. His minor league splits have him as a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher so far, although it is only 22 BIP. I’m of the opinion that he should probably be at Wichita (and maybe he’ll join them for the postseason, although he’s already been announced for the AFL).

In Tim Lincecum’s last two starts at San Jose, he’s fanned 21 in 10 1/3 innings, while walking 4. I have a feeling that the teams ahead of the Giants who passed on him are going to regret it.

Joel Guzman has fallen so far off the prospect map that he’s going to need a guide dog to find his way back. I saw him play three games this past week in Durham, and he has (a) a very slow bat and (b) slow reflexes in the field. He totally misjudged two popups (only one of which cost him an error), was caught flatfooted on a routine grounder (which he booted), dived for a grounder that wasn’t more than about two feet to his left (making what should have been a relatively simple play took hard) and didn’t hit a single ball with any authority whatsoever. I have no idea what happened here, but he’s not someone who I’d even take a flyer on at this point.

Worst DP combo I’ve seen in recent memory: Luis Ordaz (SS) and Luis Rivas (2B). Ordaz, at least, has decent enough instincts, but he has no arm and very little range. With the suspension of Elijah Dukes and the callup of Delmon Young, the Bulls were fielding a lineup that included Brent Butler in left and Rodney Nye in right. Yeesh.

Daniel Barone pitched one of the best games I’ve seen this year the other night at Five County. At one point he’d thrown first-pitch strikes to 19 of 22 hitters faced. His reward was a ticket back to Jupiter - so then Jamie Brauer comes up and throws six shutout innings himself in his AA debut. The Marlins seem to have something of a knack for developing pitchers, and they’ve got some good live arms at Greensboro if they can keep them healthy.

Bill Plummer deserves some kudos for keeping Tennessee in the second-half title chase in the Southern League. He’s had to deal with a patchwork pitching staff almost all season, thanks to callups (Micah Owings, Adam Bass, Tony Pena, Doug Slaten), trades (Garrett Mock, Matt Chico), injuries (Steven Jackson), and the Olympics (Greg Smith). At various times, the Smokies have been two and three players under the roster limit. Yet somehow, they go out there night after night and battle the opposition, and Plummer’s gotten production out of guys who looked as though their careers were headed for the toilet (Jamie D’Antona, Jerry Gil). He’s got to get some votes for Manager of the Year.

If you have any questions, comments, etc. about prospects, suspects, etc., this thread is a good place to ask them.

Mike Emeigh Posted: August 31, 2006 at 08:40 PM | 29 comment(s)
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   1. Mike Emeigh Posted: August 31, 2006 at 09:39 PM (#2164093)
Southern League All-Stars:

C: Miguel Montero (Tenn)
1B: Joey Votto (Chatt)
2B: Danny Richar (Tenn)
SS: Chin-Lung Hu (Jax)
3B: Scott Moore (West Tenn)
OF: Ricardo Nanita (Bir), Jerry Gil (Tenn), Noochie Varner (Chatt), Chris Walker (West Tenn)
UTIL: Jamie D'Antona (Tenn)
P: Spike Lundberg (Jax), Andy Sonnanstine (Mont), Tyler Lumsden (Bir), David Shafer (Chatt)

MVP: Votto
Outstanding Pitcher: Lundberg
Manager: John Shoemaker, Jacksonville
"Best Hustler": Eric Patterson, West Tenn

-- MWE
   2. The_Ex Posted: August 31, 2006 at 11:42 PM (#2164280)
Mike, as the season winds down it is time to say a big thank you for single handedly keeping us updated on minor league goings-on. Well done and great work.
   3. 1k5v3L Posted: September 01, 2006 at 12:00 AM (#2164297)
Micah Owings has finally adjusted to AAA hitters; his splits at milb.com.

Last 4 starts: 3W 0L, 26 IP, 23 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 27K

And Matt Torra has looked very good at South Bend since his return from surgery. The Dbacks may yet have pitching prospects to speak of... and that's without mentioning the guys in AA.
   4. 1k5v3L Posted: September 01, 2006 at 12:48 AM (#2164349)
Owings Stars In Record Setting Sidewinders Win

Micah Owings pitched six innings of one run baseball and had three hits and an RBI to help the Sidewinders to an 8-1 win over the Sacramento Rivercats on Wednesday night at Raley Field. The win is the 88th of the year, a new Tucson franchise record.

On a night when the Sidewinders could have used the designated hitter, Chip Hale elected to allow Owings to hit for himself. Owings delivered an RBI single in the second and base hits in the fourth and fifth innings. He finished 3-4 with an RBI and a run scored at the plate. On the mound, the right-hander pushed his record to 10-0 with six strong innings. He allowed just a run on four hits with five strikeouts. Over his last three starts, Owings is 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA. He has struck out 22 and walked just two in that span.

...

Evan MacLane, acquired from the Mets for Shawn Green, pitched two shutout innings in his Sidewinders debut. He allowed three hits and struck out one.


Livan and Owings will give the Dbacks a potent one-two punch at the plate next year...

Btw, the Tucson team has done a great job winning despite losing Drew, Quentin and Young to the Dbacks, as well as Enrique Gonzalez and Tony Pena. Kudos to Chip Hale.
   5. Master of Karate and Friendship (Kyle C) Posted: September 01, 2006 at 01:10 AM (#2164359)
Hey Mike, I was wondering if you've had the chance to watch Christian Garcia pitch and if so, what are your thoughts? Have you herad anything about how Delin Betances has looked (mostly wondering about command and his secondary pitches)? Gracias.
   6. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold Posted: September 01, 2006 at 01:22 AM (#2164364)
Not that this has any pertinence to your questions, but I was fooling around with some GCL BIP data the other day and I found that:

Zach McCallister induces groundballs 30.4% more than the GCL average, good for 4th in the league.

and

Angel Reyes is a very good prospect.
   7. William K. Posted: September 01, 2006 at 01:31 AM (#2164371)
Now that the Smokies are out of the playoffs, can we expect Carlos Gonzalez to be sent back down to help the Lancaster JetHawks in their playoff quest?
   8. rLr Did Your Mother 'Cause She's Hot As A Baker Posted: September 01, 2006 at 01:42 AM (#2164373)
Lancaster JetHawks

Why is it that every minor league team has a name like this? Some variation on "dog" or "cat" or other animal. I mean, what is a "RiverDog" or a "ValleyCat," anyway?
   9. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold Posted: September 01, 2006 at 01:56 AM (#2164379)
MudHens, FisherCats, SeaDogs, etc..
   10. William K. Posted: September 01, 2006 at 02:10 AM (#2164388)
Why is it that every minor league team has a name like this? Some variation on "dog" or "cat" or other animal. I mean, what is a "RiverDog" or a "ValleyCat," anyway?


My guess is that it is to differentiate with the other teams with similar names out there. At the Major League level it's easier since there are just 30 teams, but in the minors there are 180 teams. There is already a Boise Hawks team in the Northwest League (Short Season A Ball). Of course Lancaster's fellow D'Backs affiliate in South Bend are called the Silver Hawks. In Lancaster's case, they added the Jet as aerospace is a major industry there. There are 4 flight test facilities in the area including the Edwards Air Force Base.
Not sure why Sacramento are the RiverCats though....but there really is a Timber Rattler snake (Midwest League's Wisconsin)
   11. rLr Did Your Mother 'Cause She's Hot As A Baker Posted: September 01, 2006 at 02:22 AM (#2164394)
I don't know what's wrong with "Lancaster Jets" or "Lancaster Pilots." The SomethingAnimals (and it always seems to be one word, with a capital in the middle) is pretty lame.
   12. Rage against the big red machine Posted: September 01, 2006 at 10:52 AM (#2164579)
I'll take you up on the invitation to ask a quaestion. What do you (or anyone that has seen him) think of Lance Broadway? Carillo gets talked about a lot more, but Broadway has had similar numbers so far, and made it AAA this year. Looking at his stats, it seems like he's AAAA fodder at best. His hit rate just screams that he'll get ripped up in the bigs. But, aside from Garza (wow the Twins have great scouting/coaching), I think he's advanced as quickly as any pitcher in his draft class. So, am I wrong? does he have a shot to do something in the majors?
   13. Eric Bartman Posted: September 01, 2006 at 01:47 PM (#2164800)
The Wichita Eagle reports today that Hochevar will start game 4 of the TL playoffs against Tulsa next Friday.
   14. Sean McNally Posted: September 01, 2006 at 02:40 PM (#2164866)
Stupid question... for Sept. call ups do theyhave to be on the 40-man? I assume yes but I'm not sure.
   15. Master of Karate and Friendship (Kyle C) Posted: September 01, 2006 at 02:43 PM (#2164870)
Thanks Temple! I liked the McAllister pick a lot from this last draft and think he's a great sleeper in our system. I know some Yankees' prospects hounds like Reyes a lot, and his numbers are great, but I don't know what his stuff's like so I don't really have an opinion yet.

I also read a Yankees fan say Hughes' ceiling was Pedro. Holy ####, I love Hughes but wow...just...wow.
   16. APNY Posted: September 01, 2006 at 02:56 PM (#2164887)
Could Charlston open next year with a Dellin-McAllister-Reyes-Kennedy-Joba roatation?

That would be interesting to watch at least.
   17. Dingbat Charlie Posted: September 01, 2006 at 03:03 PM (#2164898)
Mike,

have you gotten a firsthand look at Billy Rowell yet?
   18. NJ in DC loathes his classmates and the law Posted: September 01, 2006 at 03:06 PM (#2164901)
Technically...every pitching prospect's ceiling is Pedro, but yeah, that was retarded...

Reyes throws a low 90s fastball that tops out in the mid 90s, a plus curveball, and a developing changeup.

Could Charlston open next year with a Dellin-McAllister-Reyes-Kennedy-Joba roatation?

Joba is almost guaranteed to be at Tampa and Kennedy is probably going to be at Tampa, if not Tampa, then Trenton. There is a lot of pitching in the system, so every level is going to have an exciting front of the rotation. Right now off the top of my head I see it shaking out as Dellin-McAllister-Reyes-Castillo in Low A, Kennedy-Chamberlain-Garcia-Kontos-Norton in High A, Marquez-Horne in AA, Hughes-Clippard in AAA.
   19. APNY Posted: September 01, 2006 at 03:16 PM (#2164906)
OK, I was wondering how aggressive they'd be with Joba/Ian.

I assume Wright/Smith will both be in Trenton too, which leaves Stephens as the only other slightly interesting starter in the system, I guess he'll be back at Charlston if he's ever healthy.
   20. Gold Star for Robot Boy Posted: September 01, 2006 at 03:19 PM (#2164907)
Thanks for Guzman update. What a weird career he's having.
   21. Mike Emeigh Posted: September 01, 2006 at 03:22 PM (#2164910)
for Sept. call ups do they have to be on the 40-man?


Yes. But if they're not on the 40-man now they can be put there (with someone else going out).

What do you (or anyone that has seen him) think of Lance Broadway?


I don't know what to think. He doesn't throw particularly hard (upper 80s), and his bread-and-butter pitch (a hard curve) was not particularly sharp the day that I saw him. If the curve isn't working, he doesn't have anything on which he can rely.

I don't put much stock in GCL numbers, and not much more in short-season numbers; there are just too many non-prospects playing at those levels.

-- MWE
   22. NJ in DC loathes his classmates and the law Posted: September 01, 2006 at 03:30 PM (#2164916)
I assume Wright/Smith will both be in Trenton too, which leaves Stephens as the only other slightly interesting starter in the system, I guess he'll be back at Charlston if he's ever healthy.

Well...I guess the Mark Prior comp wasn't so asburd.
   23. Mike Emeigh Posted: September 01, 2006 at 03:31 PM (#2164917)
I haven't seen Rowell. Bluefield came to Burlington twice - the weekend that my mother passed away, and during the next-to-last Mudcats' home stand where I was working every game. Rowell had one of his best games at Burlington on August 20, going 4-5 with two singles, a double, a triple, and 5 RBI.

Things to like about Rowell: 20 EBH of a total of 50 hits at Bluefield, in 42 games. Things not to like: 47 K at Bluefield in 152 AB. He's had at least one hit in each of his first four games at Aberdeen. The Orioles tend to be cautious with their prospects (Fiorentino was an exception), so I expect him to start at Delmarva.

-- MWE
   24. Dingbat Charlie Posted: September 01, 2006 at 03:54 PM (#2164941)
thanks, and thanks for all your hard work this year. Very sorry about your mother's passing.

Rowell's defense also hasn't been sterling but I don't think it's a worry considering his age and that he's adapting to 3rd base. Speaking of Fiorentino, what's your outlook on him after his recent resurgence?
   25. rembini06 Posted: September 01, 2006 at 10:32 PM (#2165391)
Of course Lancaster's fellow D'Backs affiliate in South Bend are called the Silver Hawks.

The Studebaker Silver Hawk was built in South Bend. The ballpark is either on the old factory site, or very close to it, I'm not sure which.
   26. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold Posted: September 01, 2006 at 10:37 PM (#2165395)
Things to like about Rowell: He's from New Jersey.

That's all you need to know.
   27. Master of Karate and Friendship (Kyle C) Posted: September 02, 2006 at 02:53 AM (#2165576)
Some Hughes' stats from AA this year (league average in parenthesis):

116 IP, 2.25 ERA (3.81), 2.33 (4.37), 138 SO, 32 BB, 2 HB, 5 HR, 0.91 WHIP (1.31), 169 ERA+, 188 RA+, 30.3 SO% (18.8), 7.0 BB% (8.2), 16.0 H% (21.9), 1.1 HR% (1.9).

These aren't park adjusted, and I think Trenton is a bit of a pitcher's park, but still...damn. His OPS+ against was something like 45, too.
   28. Russlan is an overhyped Met BTFer Posted: September 02, 2006 at 04:57 AM (#2165589)
Mike, What are your thoughts on Jesus Flores, the Mets catching prospect in St. Lucie.
   29. Master of Karate and Friendship (Kyle C) Posted: September 02, 2006 at 04:56 PM (#2165932)
I like this:
Hughes, who was on a strict 80-pitch or five-inning count during the regular season, will see that leash loosened to pitch 100 pitches or seven innings during the playoffs.

"It will be a little more than I've been working with lately but not a complete game or anything like that," Hughes said.

Despite the increased workload (116 innings in 21 starts for the Thunder), Hughes is strong and fresh for the playoff run.

"I still feel strong," Hughes said. "I feel stronger now than I did in the beginning of the season and the fastball is still looking good and the velocity is there."

Link
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