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Notes in a Minor Key
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Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Southern League All-Star Game: Five Things I’ve Learned

Notes from Monday’s Southern League All-Star Game:

1. Alcedes Escobar can play.

Chris Coghlan won the MVP award - hard not to give it to the local guy whose 3-run HR broke the game open - but Escobar was far and away the best player on the field. In the first inning, he alertly took second on a run-scoring single when Rashad Eldridge overshot the cutoff man, which put him in position to score a second run on a passed ball later in the inning. In the fifth, he smacked a hard grounder through the hole to left for a single, scoring ahead of Coghlan’s bomb. He also connected solidly in his other two plate appearances, lining to left and hammering another grounder which unfortunately went right to Russell Mitchell who started a 5-4-3 DP. Escobar also converted two dazzlers on D, taking hits away from Juan Gonzalez and Ricardo Nanita, and nearly contributed a third in the ninth inning when he dove in the hole to stop Bryan Byrne’s shot but couldn’t quite get enough on the throw - the play did save a run. Milwaukee’s going to have an interesting decision to make soon - do they try to get value for Weeks or Hardy this offseason, or do they give Escobar some AAA time in 2009?

2. The Pirates are going to regret losing Todd Redmond before they regret losing Brent Lillibridge.

Lillibridge was, of course, the main prospect dealt away in the Adam LaRoche deal two years ago. But during spring training, the Pirates made another deal with Atlanta that I think they’ll have cause to regret sooner, giving up Redmond in exchange for Tyler Yates. Redmond doesn’t get high marks from scouts, but he can flat out pitch. He retired three tough hitters - Escobar, Coghlan, and Southern League HR leader Mike Wilson - blowing a low 90s heater upstairs past Wilson for strike three after WIlson ran the count full and fouled off a couple of other tough pitches. Redmond’s always had good control and decent K rates, although he does tend to work up in the zone a lot and I can see where he can be burned as a result. I’d be willing to bet, however, that had he stayed in the Bucs’ organization, he’d probably be getting a starting shot along about now.

3. There are some good pitchers in the Southern League.

All right, so I knew this already. Sue me.

Ben Jukich got the game’s Most Valuable Pitcher award. Like Redmond, he retired all three hitters he faced on six pitches. Jukich was the PTBNL in the Denorfia deal a year ago, and while he’s an older pitcher (24, turns 25 in October) from a small college, and he could stand to sharpen his command (cue the Memorex), he’s got a nice sinker that hitters can’t do much with when it’s on, and I have yet to see him pitch poorly. He’ll fit somewhere in the back of Cinci’s rotation.

James McDonald showed some good off-speed stuff that I haven’t seen from him before, and that had hitters flailing away, although he did leave one fat breaker out over the plate for Cole Gillespie to hammer (fortunately on the ground).

Brooks Brown made one bad pitch, which Doug Deeds hit about 420 feet over the scoreboard. Other than that, he was also pretty impressive.

Wade Davis, AKA Mike’s favorite Rays pitching prospect (that he has seen), didn’t fare well statistically, but he was a little bit unlucky. Leadoff hitter John Raynor hit a slicing drive down the right field line on which Jamie Hoffmann shied away from the fence; he might have been able to catch it, and perhaps would have tried harder to do so in a regular season game. Had he done so, Davis very likely would have gotten away without allowing any runs. The passed ball was all on John Jaso, who looks less and less like a catching option the more that I see him play; his footwork just isn;t getting any better.

Huntsville’s David Welch also had a six-pitch inning (three grounders), but I’m less sold on him - although in fairness this was the first time I’ve seen him pitch, so I’m going to reserve any additional comments until I see him another time.

4. The Miracle League is just that.

Take a look at the third picture here. Young Mr. Tutor received a (much deserved) standing ovation, especially when you consider that he discarded his walker about 30 feet from home plate.

The Miracle League All-Star game was far and away the best part of the festivities. The kids had fun, the players had fun, the fans loved it - great decision by the Mudcats and the Miracle League.

This is the third time I’ve attended a minor league all-star game, and the Mudcats put on the best show by far...except for:

5. Reggy and BirdZerk need to get new acts.

I’m not a huge fan of mascots anyway, but...Seeing Reggy’s Mom flirt with the umpire, and BirdZerk’s inflatable monkey and inflatable baseball, once was bad enough. Seeing them twice - and seeing the same set of routines as the first time - was torture. If you know you’re going to be in a venue multiple times in a year, at least change up the act. More to the point, the league brought in three other mascots in addition to Muddy the Mudcat, and they got almost no field time. I know that the national acts are a big deal, but why bother with them when you’ve got other talent that’s just as good?

Overall, a great evening. I hope that those of you in the Louisville area get out to the AAA game tomorrow.

Mike Emeigh Posted: July 15, 2008 at 07:43 PM | 28 comment(s)
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   1. battlekow Posted: July 16, 2008 at 04:04 AM (#2860887)
Mike, the scouting report on Escobar is greatly heartening and appreciated. How did Michael Brantley look in center field? Did you get a sense of how good Cole Gillespie's surgically-repaired throwing arm is? How did Salome look defensively behind the plate?
   2. Mike Emeigh Posted: July 16, 2008 at 09:37 AM (#2861042)
Brantley didn't have any plays defensively. Offensively he was solid, 2-2.

Gillespie didn't have any plays that required him to make a strong throw. Both fly balls that he caught were third outs, and both hits to left were routine plays.

Salome looked OK defensively (it helped that his pitchers were mostly right around the plate), but didn't have a good game offensively. Being short (and he IS short) doesn't look like it's a hindrance to him - most long-term catchers haven't been really big guys, as Bill James noted, probably because the knees tend to go more quickly from all the up-and-down movements when you are bigger.

FWIW: The game jerseys are being auctioned off, with proceeds going to the Miracle League - there's a link to the auction on Carolina's Web site. Escobar's jersey is already up to $260.

-- MWE
   3. Cabbage Posted: July 16, 2008 at 10:40 AM (#2861174)
Wo ist Salome?
   4. AROM Posted: July 16, 2008 at 01:02 PM (#2861401)
Angel Salome. Being short didn't seem to hurt Pudge Rodriguez or Yogi Berra much.

I knew about him, but until looking him up right now had no idea how good a season he was having. A 22 year old hitting 345/401/529 in the Southern league is impressive. I wonder if they'll hand him Kendall's job next season or make him play AAA.
   5. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 16, 2008 at 01:07 PM (#2861404)
Regarding Salome he has hit at every level. But his catching, well, let's just say he's a bit challenged. His habits can be sloppy which can cause tension with his pitching staff.

But he can hit. The Brewers have mostly pitchers oriented minor league affiliates and Angel just keeps churning out line drives. It ain't like he's getting leg hits on the infield.

Salome will start in Triple A waiting for his chance. With a young staff next, assuming CC/Ben walk, Melvin will want a veteran hand to babysit. And Kendall has a boatload of love on the current staff. They rave about the guy.

Don't be surprised if Weeks gets traded and Hardy is moved to second base with AE the new shortstop.

Doug Melvin ADORES that kid. I think he would date him if Alcides asked.......
   6. BeanoCook Posted: July 16, 2008 at 04:06 PM (#2861647)
Weeks for J Rauch. This deal makes sense, as Milwaukee needs help in the bullpen today and can simply move Hardy to 2nd as Escobar's D is MLB ready right now. The drop off in offense from Weeks to Escobar would be made up by the upgrade in D alone.

This deal makes so much sense it won't be done. If it is, Milwaukee's fans and media will not understand it, I fear.

Pull the trigger.
   7. 1k5v3L Posted: July 16, 2008 at 04:13 PM (#2861650)
Doug Melvin ADORES that kid. I think he would date him if Alcides asked.
Not that there's anything wrong with that.
   8. 1k5v3L Posted: July 16, 2008 at 04:14 PM (#2861653)
Weeks for J Rauch. This deal makes sense
How much cash is Bowden scamming off it tho?
   9. Mike Emeigh Posted: July 16, 2008 at 04:55 PM (#2861708)
Don't be surprised if Weeks gets traded and Hardy is moved to second base with AE the new shortstop.


That was my expected scenario, as well.

-- MWE
   10. 1k5v3L Posted: July 16, 2008 at 05:00 PM (#2861712)
Is Weeks really that bad defensively at 2b? And if he is, where would his new team play him? CF?
   11. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 16, 2008 at 05:29 PM (#2861731)
levski:

He is BETTER. His arm is under control. He holds onto to what he can get to. But he just doesn't have the instincts for the position. He has the athleticism.

Weeks should have been moved to centerfield three years. He can run, he has the arm and it would keep him out of harms way because he is injury-prone.

But he wanted to play second, the Brewers needed someone to play second and it was part of the plan.

If he hit like he did the first two months of 2006 or the last two months of 2007 you could live with the defense. But he hasn't shown that level of consistency.

He's the Brewers position player equivalent of Dave Bush in that there are things there to like but the path to get there drives you nuts.

The last season and a half Rickie has played in 195 games and scored 145 runs. That's a better ratio of runs/game than Jose Reyes. He has stolen 38 bases in 43 attempts. His OBP over that same timeframe is .354. He has dropped his strikeout rate as a percentage of at bats from 28.3 to 23.3.

These are all good things. And the Brewers keep waiting and waiting and waiting for it JUST......COME......TOGETHER.

I just get the feeling Doug Melvin is going to hope for a second half hot streak and then sit down this offseason with Ash and the front office folks and determine what to do with this guy.

'Cause he's a tough one...........
   12. 1k5v3L Posted: July 16, 2008 at 05:46 PM (#2861743)
Thanks, Harveys. I really tried (and failed) to get Weeks in my NL only league this year. Really believed everyone this side of Keith Law that Weeks would be a monster this year. Maybe he will turn it around in the second half, but he's certainly not making it easy on Melvin (which is bad) and Yost (which is good?)
   13. JoeHova Posted: July 16, 2008 at 06:19 PM (#2861766)
Has anyone heard any rumblings that Hardy would be the one moved to 2nd? Because I keep expecting it to be Escobar. Maybe the Jeter situation has made me skeptical that any veteran SS will ever be moved off SS for any reason. It should be Hardy, obviously, but Hardy complains when he isn't hitting in his preferred spot in the batting order, I would think he'll complain even more if he has to change positions.
   14. MM1f Posted: July 16, 2008 at 06:49 PM (#2861779)
Garrrrgh.

SO upset I was too busy that day to come to this. I was really looking forward to it.

Having seen him in college and the minors now (the last three teams the guy has played for have all been within 2-3 hours of each other, and his hometown) I feel safe in saying John Raynor is a really overlooked prospect. I remember seeing him in college for the first time and there was a catcher (Hatcher) on his UNC-W team that was getting the draft hype but Raynor is the one the left me thinking "Who is this guy? Why isn't he being talked about?".

He just screams "ballplayer" to me. I know that sounds kind of cliche but Raynor is average or above in every facet of the game. He runs very well and is a great basestealer, he throws well, he has good gap power and makes some really hard contact. Line drives just jump off the bat. Plus he is (ok, seems to be) a "grinder" type, which I can't not like. He is really skinny, but isn't weak. He has that wiry, athletic strength and some height.. really built more like a basketball player or white BJ Upton. He has some early career Steve Finley in him, both in build and tools (although Raynor strikes out a little more). Finley was also, like Raynor, a mid-round senior pick out of a 2nd tier college. I can also see some Curtis Granderson in him when I think of best-case scenarios.

I've seen him enough (and his stats reflect this) that I don't think I've just happened to see him on good nights, he just always happens to spray hard line drives, run fast and play D.
He doesn't have too much "star potential" but he should at least become a good reserve OF and probably a real quality starter.
   15. MM1f Posted: July 16, 2008 at 06:51 PM (#2861780)
Also, the one time I saw Chris Coglan in person this year he looked like a real solid hitter with some solid athleticism.
   16. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 16, 2008 at 06:52 PM (#2861781)
Joe:

The Brewers control him for a while. And if leaves after hitting free agency to be a shortstop so be it.

But nothing will happen until the offseason. Doug does this stuff in November, not July.

With all the money coming off the books how about the Crew signing Ellis, let AE get AAA time, and then trade JJ after 2009?
   17. JoeHova Posted: July 16, 2008 at 07:06 PM (#2861787)
With all the money coming off the books how about the Crew signing Ellis, let AE get AAA time, and then trade JJ after 2009?


Truthfully (sorry to mini-hijack the thread Mike), I'd rather they trade JJ now with a lot of teams looking for an SS and JJ on a hot streak. JJ is like Weeks to me, they both look horrible, like they shouldn't even be in the majors, for months at a time, then they have a good couple weeks and their numbers are respectable or even good. Maybe a lot of players are like that, but it sure is noticeable (and frustrating) in their cases. If the team waits till after 2009, it's just as likely (imo) that he'll have finished the season on a 4 month streak of suck and his value will be low. They won't trade him after getting Sabathia, but I think it would be smart.

Now, if they did trade him, Alcides probably isn't quite ready. Bill has been terrible at 3rd this year, but I wonder if a platoon of him and Counsell at short could be ok for a couple months. Move Dillon into Bill's half of the platoon at 3rd.
   18. JoeHova Posted: July 16, 2008 at 07:10 PM (#2861791)
I do like the idea of signing Ellis (or maybe Hudson?) in the offseason if they think Alcides won't be ready until 2010, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Rickie have a good month at some point and show just enough promise to trick the Brewers into giving him another year. I would prefer Ellis or Hudson though. Even if those guys aren't hitting, they at least give you good defense. If Weeks isn't hitting, he gives you nothing.
   19. JoeHova Posted: July 16, 2008 at 07:16 PM (#2861795)
Arrggh, I hate to do this, but there is no edit feature. I should add that I wouldn't give Hudson or Ellis a long deal because both are in their 30's, but I would overpay a bit to get them on a 3 year or so deal. Even that might be too long but I think it's time to move on from Weeks. The defense isn't there and it never will be and his bat hasn't been able to make up for that. Hudson and Ellis are just better than he is.
   20. battlekow Posted: July 16, 2008 at 09:08 PM (#2861847)
Wo ist Salome?

Wo means "where", while wer means "who".
   21. JoeHova Posted: July 17, 2008 at 11:08 AM (#2862148)
Wo means "where", while wer means "who".


maybe, but "wo ist salome?" is a famous section (song? not sure what the terminology is) in the opera Salome by Richard Strauss. I've been a fan of the opera ever since the Brewers drafted Angel. Maybe if they draft a guy named Madama Butterfly I'll finally be able to get into Puccini. ;)
   22. Mike Emeigh Posted: July 17, 2008 at 11:39 AM (#2862175)
sorry to mini-hijack the thread Mike


I expected it, and it's not a hijack. Although I really thought more people would want to talk about mascots :)

I should add that I wouldn't give Hudson or Ellis a long deal because both are in their 30's, but I would overpay a bit to get them on a 3 year or so deal.


If you do that, you make whichever one you sign virtually untradeable once Escobar is ready - and he may not be very far from being ready. Do you really want to limit your flexibility by doing that?

If it were me, I'd be inclined to wait until the offseason to make any moves, and then see what the market will bear for either Weeks or Hardy (preferably the former). I don't think the Brewers will get a decent return now, and it wouldn't hurt Escobar to leave him in the minors for a few more months. I'd even consider trying to package Weeks and Hall to get a quality front line starter, if Gamel's defense has improved enough - I'll have more to say after Huntsville is here next week.

-- MWE
   23. 1k5v3L Posted: July 17, 2008 at 11:44 AM (#2862178)
Given Hall's contract, would you really expect to get a front line starter for him even if you package him with Weeks?
   24. MM1f Posted: July 17, 2008 at 06:53 PM (#2862696)
The fact that Brewers thread hijacks are even possible is pretty cool.
   25. battlekow Posted: July 18, 2008 at 12:46 AM (#2863456)

maybe, but "wo ist salome?" is a famous section (song? not sure what the terminology is) in the opera Salome by Richard Strauss. I've been a fan of the opera ever since the Brewers drafted Angel. Maybe if they draft a guy named Madama Butterfly I'll finally be able to get into Puccini. ;)


Damn. What's funny is, I initially didn't post that, figuring it was a reference of some sort, but then after a bunch of people just started talking about Salome as if he'd asked "Who is Salome?" I went for it.
   26. battlekow Posted: July 18, 2008 at 10:06 PM (#2864473)
Rosenthal on Escobar:
Adding to the inevitability that the Brewers will trade shortstop J.J. Hardy this offseason: One scout who attended the Southern League All-Star team called it "The Alcides Escobar show," referring to the Brewers' top shortstop prospect. Escobar, 21, might struggle offensively after he reaches the majors, but scouts consider him a defensive wonder. The Brewers are telling teams he is untouchable.
   27. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: July 21, 2008 at 09:34 AM (#2866300)
The fact that Brewers thread hijacks are even possible is pretty cool.
Indeed.

I'd planned on going to the game as well, but alas... story of my season.

I also like Raynor a great deal (relative to his pub, at least), though if he can't play center (as his minor league range #s suggest, not that that's worth putting _too_ much stock into), that really cuts down on his potential big league role.

Hey - at least Salome has stopped producing errors by the truckload and reduced his passed ball totals to merely 'high' (9 so far this year). He's still giving up reams of steals (haven't seen him this year - in the past, I thought his arm was fine, he just needed to work on how he got rid of the ball).
   28. Mike Emeigh Posted: July 23, 2008 at 09:49 PM (#2870503)
One scout who attended the Southern League All-Star team called it "The Alcides Escobar show," referring to the Brewers' top shortstop prospect.


Wonder who that was? I didn't see which scouts were here.

There were about a dozen scouts in the park tonight when the game was called, and I suspect there will be more when Jacksonville gets here next week.

-- MWE
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