BPro: Wyers: Reintroducing PECOTA

Much like John Wathan…juggling PECOTA around.

PECOTA has arrived.

BP’s projection system, at its core, follows the same basic principles as it has before. We begin with our baseline projections, which start with a weighted average of past performance, with decreasing emphasis placed on seasons further removed from the season being projected. Then that performance is regressed to the mean. After that, we use the baseline forecast to find comparable players (while also taking into account things like position and body type) and use those to account for the effects of aging on performance.

Every season we put PECOTA under the knife, looking for things we can improve to make sure we’re coming up with the best forecasts possible. Sometimes what we come up with is a minor tweak. At other times, though, what we unearth is not only more significant, but an interesting baseball insight in its own right, even aside from its inclusion in PECOTA.

This season, we’ve made some rather radical changes to how we handle the weighted averages for the PECOTA baselines—we still deemphasize past seasons, but nowhere near as much as we used to. With such a dramatic and counterintuitive change, we thought it best to give our users an explanation of what was changed and why so that they could correctly use and interpret the PECOTA forecasts.

BTF Chicago Softball Team?

Any Chicago Primates interested in cobbling together a softball team for one of the city summer leagues? My preference is 16” rec, but I would of course submit to the will of the people. Discuss!

ChicagoSide: New sports website fields strong starting lineup

Borderline Primates unite!

Regardless of how the Cubs and White Sox fare in the coming season, serious Chicago sports fans could finally get what they’ve been waiting for on Opening Day 2012.

That’s when they’ll be introduced to ChicagoSide, which may turn out to be the most game-changing addition to the sports media scene since the Score debuted on radio 20 years ago next month.

“We’re launching the best Chicago sports website the city’s ever seen,” said Jonathan Eig, 47, the veteran reporter, columnist and nationally acclaimed author (Luckiest Man: The Life and Death of Lou Gehrig, Opening Day: The Story of Jackie Robinson’s First Season, and Get Capone) who’s founder and editor-in-chief of the new venture. “And we’re doing it with an amazingly talented pool of writers and editors who are hungry because they love sports and they love journalism, and there aren’t that many places to write anymore in this city.”

...“We’re going to have the best piece of sports journalism every day in the city of Chicago that you can find . . . at least one piece of original material every day that we’re absolutely confident will get people talking,” Eig said. “Then we’ll also aggregate and link to the best stuff around the web — all on Chicago sports.”

Eig already has assembled a lineup of more than three dozen writers, including newspaper and magazine veterans Lou Carlozo, George Castle, Jim Coffman, Lauren Etter, Elliott Harris, Noah Isackson, Billy Lombardo, Amy Merrick, Joel Reese, Chris Silva and Alan Solomon, along with best-selling authors Joseph Epstein, James Finn Garner and Robert Kurson.

High Heat Stats: Picking Up for the Late, Lamented B-R Blog

There is life after the Baseball-Reference.com blog…

After nearly 4 and a half years, that blog has run its course so I’m moving things over here. What can you expect? More of the same, for the most part. At least initially we will be running the same sort of content you saw on the B-R blog.

Best of luck, gents.

BBTF Playoff Chats

Just a reminder that BTF’s IRC chat room is open for people who want to live chat during the playoffs.

Dan Werr’s directions after the break.

FanGraphs New York Meetup

Amity Hall? Wuh…you guys too good for John’s Pizza? (chomp…I’ll probably be heading over…chomp)

On Sunday, September 25th, we’ll blow the horn for FanGraphs East and announce happy hour drinks and our own private space for our particular brand of nerdery. Come to Amity Hall any time after one PM eastern, and we’ll be hanging out, talking baseball and enjoying happy hour prices. And there will be a ton of togetherness because really how much can you hate a Mets fan right now. Oh! Also, come downstairs. We’ve got the downstairs bar.

And this is who will be hanging out:

David Appelman, FanGraphs Dark Overlord, so dark
Mike Podhorzer, Serious about (fantasy) baseball, RotoGraphs
Eno Sarris, Fan of Graphs, Fan, Not and Roto
Amanda Rykoff, espnW contributor, beer lover and Yankees fan
James Kannengeiser, professional curmudgeon and Amazin Avenue writer
Chris McShane, Amazin Avenue backbone, ready to dance
Eric Simon, Amazin Avenue head honcho guy, generally nice dude
Mike Axisa, aka “Mike from RAB, FanGraphs & Trade Rumors,” you know, just Mike
Joe Pawlikowski, music lover, FanGraphs escapee and River Avenue Blueser

Kernan: Baseball Hall of Fame may lower induction wait to 3 years

“The Post has learned” (trembles)

Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera could become Hall of Famers much faster than expected after they retire. The waiting time is currently five years after a player retires to be named to the ballot. The National Baseball Hall of Fame, though, is considering making the waiting period only three years, The Post has learned.

That would be a great move.

...One reason Hall officials would want to shorten the waiting period is to make it a more “immediate” event. There is a lot to be said for that because, why should sure-fire, first-ballot Hall of Famers have to wait five years?

We’re much more of a quick-response world, and a three-year waiting period would fit the bill. This five-year waiting period was first enacted in the 1950s. Times have changed. There were 50 Hall of Famers on stage.

...The ballot gets a little thin next year. Bernie Williams is on it and does not figure to garner much support. Holdovers Barry Larkin, Tim Raines and Jack Morris are the only ones to really have a shot. It really gets messy in 2013 with the likes of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Sammy Sosa on the ballot. Mike Piazza also is a first-timer in 2013.

It will be a while before Jeter and his 3,015 hits (and counting) and Rivera and his 584 saves (and counting) are eligible, but they just may get here a little faster than expected.