Purple Row: Thursday Rockpile: Kershaw vs. Webb, which pitcher do our rivals need more?

Renck also blogs on Yorvit Torrealba and picks up on an interesting question I noticed yesterday, that two of our primary rivals have some honest-to-goodness wild cards in their rotations that they are relying heavily on. Brandon Webb and Clayton Kershaw are both capable of ace level production, but because of Kershaw’s youth and inexperience and Webb’s shoulder, both could swing far south of that in 2010. If either falters, it’s pretty much lights out for their respective teams this season because neither really has a plan B for either of those starters.

Okay, this is where I’m going to segue into a tangent. Who is the bigger risk for their team? A few weeks ago I looked into what the Rockies needed from Jeff Francis (or his replacement if he proves incapable). I knew it wasn’t quite what the team lost with Jason Marquis, so maybe a quick version of the same exercise would be useful for the Webb/Kershaw debate.

Analysis in the link.

AZ Snakepit: The 2010 Interview with Josh Byrnes, Part One

AZ: It’s interesting you talking about younger players. There was an article at Fangraohs.com where David Cameron said older players might be the new market inefficiency, because “everyone” is trending young. Any thoughts as to whether that might be the case?

JB: Maybe - I think there’s always a pendulum in the game. There was probably an exaggerated taste for college players in the draft a few years ago, and when that happens, it makes high-school players more valuable. The fifth high-school player drafted or tenth high-school player drafted, maybe “should” go in the twenties, and now he was getting pushed to the second-round. That’s really the story of this whole decade. People chasing defensive metrics now, or young players. Is there a point at which the pendulum swings too far? It’s why, as information-savvy as we think we are, we’re generally not the organization espousing the newest philosophy and going, “Dammit, we’ll show you how smart we are.” We’ll probably take a longer view, and understand where our opportunities are in the marketplace to get the right players.

AZ: Both LaRoche and Johnson mentioned that one of the things attracting them to Arizona was its reputation as a good hitting park. Is this something you pitch to free agent hitters?

JB: Yes, but not necessarily in that respect. It’s funny, we’re aware of the ballpark, park factors, how it affects the outcomes of OPS+ or ERA+. On the other hand, there’s also watching how it turns out. I think it’s a good offensive ballpark: I don’t think it’s a bandbox, it does help singles, doubles, triples and homers, but it’s not an exaggerated park as some are.

The flip side is, our road environment is very, very difficult on our hitters. We play in a division that’s had great pitching, we play nine series a year in California, at least, so it’s going to create a divide. Playing for the Diamondbacks, yes, home games, perfect weather, good ballpark to hit in. That’s great - but our road schedule is difficult or an offensive player.

Talking to those two guys, we talked much more about our team, our environment, and we felt like our capabilities of winning. Those were the points we were trying to make and I think those factored into their decisions too.

MLB: Leno to headline D-backs fundraiser

Pravda, indeed.

The event, which benefits the Arizona Diamondbacks Foundation, will take place exactly one month after Leno makes his return to NBC’s flagship late-night program. Following the 2010 Winter Olympics on March 1, Leno will resume his duties as host of “The Tonight Show with Jay Leno.”

Leno has been in the news a lot recently. After 17 years of hosting “The Tonight Show,” Leno stepped down as host in favor of Conan O’Brien and began “The Jay Leno Show” on NBC in the 9 p.m. MST time slot.

After just four months, it was announced that Leno would return to late night, a format in which he was hugely successful and one in which he was consistently at the top of the ratings.

Keith Law: Top 100 prospects

NO.  PLAYER
1 Jason Heyward, OF, ATL
2 Stephen Strasburg, RHP, WAS
3 Carlos Santana, C, CLE
4 Buster Posey, C, SFO
5 Mike Stanton, OF, FLA
6 Desmond Jennings, OF, TAM
7 Martin Perez, LHP, TEX
8 Dustin Ackley, CF, SEA
9 Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX
10 Jesus Montero, C, NYY
11 Brian Matusz, LHP, BAL
12 Starlin Castro, SS, CHC
13 Neftali Feliz, RHP, TEX
14 Domonic Brown, RF, PHI
15 Wade Davis, RHP, TAM
16 Aroldis Chapman, LHP, CIN
17 Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, TAM
18 Casey Kelly, RHP, BOS
19 Aaron Hicks, RHP, MIN
20 Brett Wallace, 1B, TOR
21 Logan Morrison, 1B, FLA
22 Tyler Matzek, LHP, COL
23 Jenrry Mejia, RHP, NYM
24 Michael Taylor, OF, OAK
25 Zach Britton, LHP, BAL

Scouting reports for the top 25 should be free, I think.

ESPN Chicago: Cubs sign Chad Tracy to minor league deal

Removing my glasses, pinching the bridge of my nose between my thumb and forefinger, eyes closed, nodding…

As first reported by ESPNChicago.com on Tuesday, Chad Tracy signed a one-year, minor league deal with the Cubs. He will have an opportunity to earn more if he makes the major league roster out of spring training.

Also, in a huge shocker, the Cubs have avoided going to arbitration with Sean Marshall, who will make $950K next season.

EV Tribune: Mesa unveils plan to keep Cubs; vote Monday

Mesa’s plan was developed after months of talks with the team to prevent the Cactus League’s most popular team from accepting a bid from investors near Naples, Fla.

The $84 million plan was drafted on requests that the Cubs had to develop a Wrigleyville-themed complex, Mesa City Manager Chris Brady said. The city would own the stadium and training facilities. Mesa maintains the current training facilities, but Brady said the team wanted to take that expense and gain advertising rights at the new complex.

McLennan: ZIP it… ZIP it good… - How ZIPS projects the 2010 Diamondbacks

Are we not Primates?

As Zephon mentioned yesterday, Dan Szymborski’s ZIPS system has come out with its 2010 numbers for Arizona. It’s the last of the “big four” public projection systems [Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, ZIPS] to go to press, so that means I can begin work on the Communiry Projections. Those will be starting after I finish the 2010 preview by position series, so likely about when pitchers and catchers report. For the moment, however, let’s just extract the basic numbers and see what ZIPS has to say about our everyday players next year

The good news on first eyeball is, ZIPS projects six everyday players to have an OPS+ of 100 or better in 2010. This would be a marked improvement on last season, when we had 3 1/2 there - Mark Reynolds, Justin Upton, Miguel Montero, with the half being Ryan Roberts. The first three are projected to repeat, though the numbers for the trio all show a slight regression, of between three and ten OPS+ points. This is something njjohn mentioned with particular regard to Upton, in the RF preview piece: all the projections for him see Upton slipping. I think it’s because - and this goes for Montero and Reynolds too - 2009 was his first “good” season, and the ones prior to that still carry enough weight to drag down the numbers, countering the expected aging improvement.

Joining them in the 100+ club, ZIPS says will be our two new arrivals, Adam LaRoche and Kelly Johnson. The former is projected to bounce back almost exactly to the 2008 level, with ZIPS believing last year to have been an aberration. After two consecutive years of 122 OPS+ for LaRoche, Dan hardly sticks his neck out when he predicts a figure for Adam in 2010 of...122. Particularly encouraging, ZIPS also expects Conor Jackson to make a strong recovery from valley fever, and return to the kind of numbers produced from 2006-08. This joins the other systems, which have similar OPS expectations to the .798 from ZIPS [in the range .783 for CHONE to .806 for Bill James].

Diamondbacks releasing Eric Byrnes

What do you do with a guy who has played in only 136 games due to hamstring problems over two seasons while hitting .218? If you’re the Arizona Diamondbacks, you release him.

That’s apparently what is about to happen to 33-year-old outfielder Eric Byrnes, who is getting bumped from the 40-man roster by the signing of a one-year contract by first baseman Adam LaRoche. Byrnes has one year left on a three-year, $30 million deal.

This should give Byrnes a little more time to spread his media empire. He’s done a bunch of baseball analysis over the years for various networks and has his own regional TV show in Arizona as well as a radio show. Who needs baseball?

MLB: LaRoche, D-backs agree to one-year deal

The Arizona Diamondbacks agreed to terms Thursday on a one-year deal with Adam LaRoche, a baseball source told MLB.com.

The signing—still pending a physical—would mean LaRoche becomes the team’s everyday first baseman. That moves Conor Jackson to left field and makes Gerardo Parra the club’s fourth outfielder.

LaRoche batted .277 with 25 homers and 83 RBIs in 150 games for the Pirates, Red Sox and Braves in 2009. The 30-year-old lefty hitter has notched 20-plus homers in each of his past five seasons—including 32 with the Braves in ‘06—and sports a career .274 batting average with 136 homers in six seasons in the big leagues.

38 Pitches: Schilling: The Best Ever

Was tina German?

The greatest power pitcher in the game’s history retired yesterday. Think about that: greatest ever…..

I had the honor of being in the same rotation as RJ for a little over three years and I can say, without a doubt, that there is no way I’d have achieved what I did then, or afterwards, were it not for him. Randy pushed me in ways I never thought possible, and made things happen I knew I’d never see again.

The major leagues is the best of the best. There is no “5A”, no league above it. When someone in the big leagues is so good he makes competition look amateur, it’s saying something. There were nights, like when he punched out 20 vs. Cincy, when RJ was a man amongst boys. It’s a cliche used far too often, and often not applicable in the cases it is used, but he was just that.

Like Jordan in his prime, Tiger on a roll, Federer, Pele, Gretzky, all of them, RJ was every bit as dominant and more so at times, than any of them.

He should go down as the most dominating power pitcher, certainly the most dominant left hander, of all time, and I’m proud to say I was part of a team he played on that brought home the first world championship in any sport to Arizona.

2 pro baseball players arrested after Phoenix Suns game

I am sure alcohol was not involved.

Two professional baseball
players and another man were arrested on suspicion of assault and disorderly conduct after Wednedsay’s Phoenix Suns game at U.S. Airways Center following a brawl at an arena lounge, according to Phoenix police.

Detroit Tigers catcher Gerald Laird, 30, was cited for assault. His brother Brandon Laird, 22, was cited for disorderly conduct, police said. The younger brother is a prospect in the New York Yankees minor league system.
...
Phoenix police Sgt. Andy Hill said a fourth man “inappropriately touched a female” at the lounge on level 3 of the arena, though he was not arrested because the female victim “did not want to get involved or provide us with any information and declined prosecution.”

Nick Piecoro: Diamondbacks, 2B Kelly Johnson nearing deal

More than a week ago, the Diamondbacks made what was believed to be a one-year, $2 million offer to Johnson.

It’s possible they have moved from their original offer, but the deal still is expected to fall in the $2 million-$2.5 million range. If the deal goes through, the Diamondbacks would control his rights as an arbitration-eligible player for 2011 as well.

Johnson likely would enter the season as the club’s everyday second baseman. His presence on the roster could make trade bait of infielder Augie Ojeda as the club instead could use Tony Abreu as the utility infielder.

Steve Gilbert also tweets “Final details being worked out, physical needs to be taken but K. Johnson to #dbacks. 1 year, little more than $2 million. #mlb”

McLennan: Just desserts? Arizona’s starters and their W-L records

As Edgar “0 and 9” Gonzalez looks on, runs some math, and then loses...his place.

Comparing the Diamondbacks’ numbers to the expected ones, the biggest gap is in the upper middle of performances, something previously touched upon by Diamondhacks. As a yardstick, league average was 50, and Adam Wainwright’s mean GS this year was 59, But in 39 games with a GS of 55-64, the Arizona rotation went only 10-13: they would be predicted to go 19-7 in starts of that caliber. The reason for the gulf is simple: in those 39 games, the offense scored more than four runs only eight times, and one or zero a dozen times. We got good pitching - only three of those outings were not quality starts - but the hitters just didn’t show up.

On an individual basis, there’s a couple of ways you can use the data. The quick and dirty approach is to take a pitcher’s average Game Score over the season, see what group he falls into, and multiply by his starts. For example, Dan Haren’s average GS was 61, so he’s expected to win 0.5281 * 33 = 17.4 games. If you want something a little less granular, take each start and allocate a fraction of W and L accordingly. Haren’s first start had a GS of 76 - he took the loss (3-0 vs. Colorado), but by the chart , the performance was actually worth 0.7796 wins and only 0.0427 losses. Do this for each game and add up total wins and losses to get a cumulative number.

DodgerSims: 2010 NL West WAR

It’s that time of the year again. The time when I pull out my WAR projections (that will be initially rolled out in a Beta version) for all five NL West teams. These are rough estimates, but I feel they are pretty accurate for the most part. The WAR projections are a combination of Fangraphs and my estimates. Some teams still will be signing free agents and or making trades, so there will likely be more than a few adjustments. Feel free to point out any roster errors, any values you feel are way off, or anything else that stands out.

Data in the link.

EV Tribune: Mesa puts Cubs batting cages on hold

Mesa is refusing to upgrade a ballpark used by the Chicago Cubs unless the team enters more serious negotiations to keep spring training here.

The city was about to sign off on roughly $684,000 for semi-enclosed batting cages but on Thursday decided to hold off until top Mesa officials meet the Cubs in Chicago on Friday.

The city had expected the Cubs would welcome improvements that the team requested, Mayor Scott Smith said. But he noted that when a Chicago sports columnist asked Cubs manager (sic - he’s team president) Crane Kenney about the batting cages, no comment was given.

“The silence that came out of Chicago and the Cubs was deafening,” Smith said.

AZ Central/Piecoro: D-backs Checked In On Valverde, Targeting Johnson

Not the Big Unit:

2B Kelly Johnson appears to be the Diamondbacks’ top target at the moment. We still think they’d end up dealing IF Augie Ojeda if they get Johnson, in part because the savings on Ojeda would help off-set the cost of signing Johnson. They also think IF Tony Abreu can handle the utility infield role.

With the obligatory Pirates reference:

As for RHP Matt Capps, Diamondbacks people expect him to require a two-year deal and they don’t sound likely to give it to him.

Scouts: Tigers got best of three-team deal with Yankees, Diamondbacks

Two major league scouts and two national baseball writers interviewed by Booth Newspapers said the Tigers got the best of the deal, obtaining center fielder Austin Jackson, starter Max Scherzer, reliever Daniel Schlereth and reliever-starter Phil Coke. Each requested anonymity.

“I’d say Detroit did the best,” one veteran scout said. “I believe the Yankees are going to see that they are not getting what they think in (Curtis) Granderson. I changed my mind on his defense this year. He turned routine plays into ‘Web Gems’ because he got bad jumps. And he struck out too much and couldn’t hit left-handers.

“He’s a real good kid and all. But I just don’t think he’s a great player, even with all of his homers.”

and from (even though he usually got his dandruffian horsehead handed to him on GL) super-slueth Roc Hoover!

“On this day, I would like to decree that I am no longer and Arizona Diamondbacks fan,” Schlereth said Thursday on Mike & Mike in the Morning on ESPN Radio. “Now, I have become a Detroit Tigers fan. Long live the Detroit Tigers and the old English ‘D’.”

Schlereth was presented a Detroit Tigers cap and the ESPN football analyst professed his allegiance by replacing his D’backs cap with the Tigers hat.

“It feels good,” Schlereth said while donning the Tigers cap.

Piecoro: Byrnes unfazed by criticism of trade

Byrnes credo: Everything That Happens Will Happen Today...except for the risky long term.

The Diamondbacks’ blockbuster three-team trade has been a trending topic this week at baseball’s winter meetings, and though much of the talk might not be considered flattering from General Manager Josh Byrnes’ perspective, he didn’t seem particularly bothered when asked about the knee-jerk criticisms that have accompanied the deal.

“In general, the immediate reaction of the trade is not often a predictor of the outcome,” Byrnes said shortly after the finalization of his acquisition of right-handers Edwin Jackson (via Detroit) and Ian Kennedy (via New York) on Wednesday afternoon.

“We’re always balancing short term and long term. I think this was pretty clear in the short term that it strengthened us, and long term we realized there was some degree of risk.”

...Many people in the game seem to consider Kennedy a low-ceiling, run-of-the-mill right-hander, a view the Diamondbacks do not share.

“He’s 89-93 (mph),” Byrnes said. “He has four pitches. He has a sub-2.00 ERA in the minors. He was a Friday night starter at USC. His first stint in the big leagues was dominant. He pitched well in the (Arizona) Fall League.

“If that’s a generic talent,” he concluded, “there’s more pitching out there than I realized.”

BA: Arizona Diamondbacks Top 10 Prospects

1.  Jarrod Parker, rhp
2.  Bobby Borchering, 3b
3.  A.J. Pollock, of
4.  Brandon Allen, 1b
5.  Daniel Schlereth, lhp
6.  Chris Owings
7.  Mike Belfiore, lhp
8.  Marc Krauss, of
9.  Ryan Wheeler, 1b
10.  Collin Cowgill, of

NBC.com: C.J. Wilson tweets about ‘borderline offensive’ trade offer

C.J. Wilson, via Twitter, on reports that the Rangers turned down an offer to trade him for Diamondbacks catcher Chris Snyder:

borderline offended by az’s offer...dude hit 200!

dude he’s not even a starter on his own team. come on.

I’m pretty sure I could hit .200- when I had tommy john I asked the rangers to let me go back to outfield instead...didn’t happen

and and let me clarify that it’s not the guy I’ve got a problem with- but the team dangling him. never mad at players, just gms etc

Agreement Reached In Yanks, Tigers, D’Backs Blockbuster

Breaker…

Heyman tweets that an agreement has been reached, with only medicals pending.  We’ll do a fresh post once this trade is official.  To reiterate: the Yankees get Curtis Granderson, the D’Backs get Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, and the Tigers get Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth, Austin Jackson, and Phil Coke.

Sherman notes that the Yankees managed to pull off the Granderson acquisition without giving up Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, or Mike Dunn.

MiLB: Four Minor Leaguers suspended

Bowman, points out that..."Omar Minaya crosses Matt Tupman off his shopping list.”

Arizona Diamondbacks prospect Daniel Vasquez was one of four players suspended Friday for violating the Minor League Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.
Also receiving 50-game suspensions were free agent catcher Matt Tupman, pitcher Jefferson Segundo of the St. Louis Cardinals organization and pitcher Joel Tamares of the Florida Marlins organization.

Vasquez was banned after testing positive for metabolites of Stanozolol, a performance-enhancing substance, according to the Office of the Commissioner of Baseball. The 23-year-old right-hander was 4-1 with one save and a 4.57 ERA in 29 games, including one start, for Class A South Bend in 2009.

Tupman was suspended for a second positive test for a drug of abuse. The 30-year-old catcher started last season with Triple-A Omaha in the Kansas City Royals organization and ended it with Double-A Mobile in the Diamondbacks organization. He combined to hit .256 with a homer and 26 RBIs in 59 games.

AZ Republic: Court says pitcher’s wife died from drug overdose

An Arizona appellate court ruling says former Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Scott Schoeneweis’ wife died from an overdose of cocaine and an anesthetic, lidocaine.

A three-judge Court of Appeals panel made that disclosure Tuesday in a ruling on whether an autopsy report and other records on Gabrielle Schoeneweis’ death must be disclosed under Arizona’s public records law. The ruling says further proceedings are needed to determine that.

So, the appeals court said it wouldn’t yet determine whether to make public the autopsy report of Mrs. Schoeneweis… and then released, in essence, the report’s bottom line. Alrighty then.

Diamond Notes: Jose Contreras interested in the Dodgers?

El Nuevo Herald cites a “baseball source” who believes it’s likely free-agent pitcher Jose Contreras will end up back in the National League West with the Rockies, Diamondbacks or Dodgers. The source indicates at least two American League Central teams are also in touch.

SBT: Big changes envisioned for Coveleski

SOUTH BEND — City planners are envisioning a $30 million to $40 million upgrade to Coveleski Stadium, in and around the ballpark, while vowing the costs won’t come from general fund money.

Rather, the Luecke administration would fund the improvements with professional sports development fund and tax increment financing district revenue, the mayor told Common Council members Monday.

Inside the stadium, the upgrades would range from the mundane, such as renovating restrooms and updating the 23-year-old facility’s heating, cooling and lighting systems, to the dramatic, including new seating and outfield picnic areas, and a park-like centerfield entrance.

Bill Schalliol, city economic development planner, recently has presented the ideas to the city’s park board and redevelopment commission. On Monday he pitched the concept to the council’s parks and recreation committee, while noting the administration is not now seeking any appropriation of city money.

ALL this in a city that still owes 9 million for the college football hall of fame…

Cubs deal Heilman to Diamondbacks

As soon as I can find details I’ll post ‘em.

Piecoro: D-Backs discussing Snyder-for-Overbay swap

Things could be changing quick in Arizona...sorta like an Al Perry and The Cattle roll call!

The Diamondbacks are discussing a trade that would send catcher Chris Snyder to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for first baseman Lyle Overbay.

Overbay, who was drafted by the Diamondbacks in 1999, hit .265 with a .372 on-base and .466 slugging last season and has averaged .280/.363/.455 over the past six seasons.

It is unclear how far along the trade talks are, but since Snyder underwent back surgery in September, the Blue Jays presumably will want him to undergo a thorough examination.

Snyder is considered expendable because of the emergence of catcher Miguel Montero, who hit .294 with 16 home runs to wrest away the everyday job.

Overbay, whom the Diamondbacks traded to Milwaukee in the Richie Sexson trade in December 2003, could hold down first base in 2010, allowing prospect Brandon Allen more time to develop.

Overbay’s on-base skills would be a welcome addition in the Diamondbacks lineup. He is owed $7 million next season in the final year of his contract. He turns 33 in January.

Diamondbacks’ Zavada Wins “Mustached American of the Year”

Wearing a $3 crown and his dapper, trademark handlebar mustache that terrorized Major League hitters during the 2009 Major League Baseball season, Arizona Diamondbacks relief pitcher Clay Zavada received the American Mustache Institute’s 2009 “Robert Goulet Memorial Mustached American of the Year,” presented by Quicken®.

In front of a crowd of roughly 1,000 at ‘Stache Bash 2009—a benefit for Challenger Baseball featuring the legendary John Oates—Zavada accepted the Goulet award which recognizes the person best representing or contributing to the Mustached American community over the past year.

“Clay and his menacing mouth garden were a great story throughout the 2009 baseball season, and Quicken and the American Mustache Institute are proud to honor him as the ‘Robert Goulet Memorial Mustached American of the Year’ award winner,” said Chelsea Marti of Quicken®, who herself is a robust supporter of the Mustached American way of life.

Zavada won the Goulet award after more than 100,000 total online votes were cast. He was joined at ‘Stache Bash by fellow finalists Dr. John Yeutter, a Northeastern State University professor and CBS News reporter Bill Geist, who grabbed the microphone after the announcement and bellowed “Kayne West was right.” Other finalists included U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder, Brendan Ryan of the St. Louis Cardinals, USA Today blogger Whitney Matheson, US Airways pilot Sully Sullenberger, and Mayor Dan Snarr of Murray City, Utah.  Several cartoon characters including JStache and FOX Television’s “Cleveland” received votes, but after much debate, were disqualified because they violated a clause that required the winner to sign an ethics agreement as well as actually exist in real life.

The ‘Stache of Clay Zavada!

Piecoro: Eric Byrnes, D-Backs may be close to split

The retconning of Captain Byrnes continues…

It wasn’t until he answered a reporter’s questions about a meeting he attended last week with Diamondbacks decision-makers that you got the sense change was coming. He wouldn’t say it, but it wasn’t hard to decode: He thinks he’s gone.

“I would prefer to be here,” Byrnes said. “But if they don’t see me in a role that’s going to contribute, then it’s not a great situation for either of us.”

With the team even dropping hints that the relationship is in its final stages, Byrnes was asked how he would feel if it were over.

“It would be disappointing, but life’s not always perfect,” he said. “There’s certain things that have happened over the course of the past couple of years that I don’t feel like I really could have prevented. The only thing that I really look back upon and maybe wish I would have done different is not try to play through the hamstring injury last year.

“I’m not blaming all of my performance on the injuries, because obviously there was a lot of time in there when I just didn’t have success. But I feel like I can help a team win a lot of baseball games like I have here in the past. I hope that opportunity is here.”

Washburn, Wolf highlight second tier free agent pitchers.

To sign either starter to a big money, multi-year contract, despite their recent successes, would be disastrous. So what plan of action should GM’s take?

This will be the offseason of one-year, low-money, incentive-laden contracts for starting pitchers. Every free agent starter proved in 2009 that they can pitch successfully when there’s a contract on the line (Jason Marquis and Joel Pineiro being the best examples), so make them do it again. Much like the 2008 offseason, this will be a buyer’s market and players will be forced to sign deals offering less years and less money than expected.