Yahoo: Ask Alex: What will Tommy Hanson’s sophomore season bring?

The Question: How much can the Braves really expect to get out of a 23-year-old who pitched only 127 big league innings in 2009? How do they handle him with baby gloves while also capitalizing on his great first season?

The Analysis: With any young pitcher, the need to protect their health is paramount. In fact, Hanson and the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw(notes) did something that only seven other under-23 pitchers have done in the past 25 years, posting a 2.89 ERA in at least 127 innings.

The others to achieve the same feat? Kevin Appier, Mark Prior(notes), Bruce Ruffin, Lance McCullers, Sid Fernandez, Bret Saberhagen and Doc Gooden (twice). Each saw their careers hampered by injury and were more or less out of baseball by their mid-30s. All were fabulously talented — Appier, Gooden, Saberhagen and Prior finished third or better in the Cy Young voting by their 25th birthday — which undoubtedly encouraged their managers to put a lot of miles on their arms.

But sooner or later, they all paid the piper. A great year for Hanson in 2010 could have adverse affects down the line, if the Braves aren’t careful with his innings.

ajc: O’Brien: Heyward’s growing as fast as expectations

And stuck on the bottom (thworckk!) is this roidial jazz from former Braves catcher Javy Lopez.

Lopez was then asked flatly if players were looking at steroids as an option and using them.

“Uh, yes,” he said. “In my opinion, yes…. I mean, how can I explain this? It’s like if you’re going to race cars, if you’re going to race a car and some people are using nitro in the fuel [Lopez laughed], and you see them winning all the time, and you’re using regular gas – you know what? If they’re using nitro and they’ve been winning, well, I’d be stupid enough not to use nitro, too.”

To which one of the hosts replied that he [the host] couldn’t believe everyone else didn’t think that as well.

“Exactly,” Lopez said. “But the game of baseball — just because you use steroids doesn’t mean you’re going to hit the ball hard. I know a lot of players – not a lot of players, but I know players — who use steroids and you know what? They struck out more. Couldn’t hit the ball.

“The bottom line is that in baseball, you still have to hit the ball. Steroids do not help you hit the ball or make you the ball better. You still have to have the talent. You still have to have the talent. But it does help you to hit the ball farther.”

Asked about pitchers also using steroids in that period, Lopez said, “Pitchers obviously throw a lot harder, throw a lot faster [on steroids]. You face a pitcher who’s using steroids. The pitcher’s facing a batter that uses steroids…. It’s a mess. We talk about that. But you know what? I’m glad that everything came out. Now when you see a player out there, you can’t say 100 percent, but at least you know [with some degree of certainty] they’re clean.”

Keith Law: Top 100 prospects

NO.  PLAYER
1 Jason Heyward, OF, ATL
2 Stephen Strasburg, RHP, WAS
3 Carlos Santana, C, CLE
4 Buster Posey, C, SFO
5 Mike Stanton, OF, FLA
6 Desmond Jennings, OF, TAM
7 Martin Perez, LHP, TEX
8 Dustin Ackley, CF, SEA
9 Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX
10 Jesus Montero, C, NYY
11 Brian Matusz, LHP, BAL
12 Starlin Castro, SS, CHC
13 Neftali Feliz, RHP, TEX
14 Domonic Brown, RF, PHI
15 Wade Davis, RHP, TAM
16 Aroldis Chapman, LHP, CIN
17 Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, TAM
18 Casey Kelly, RHP, BOS
19 Aaron Hicks, RHP, MIN
20 Brett Wallace, 1B, TOR
21 Logan Morrison, 1B, FLA
22 Tyler Matzek, LHP, COL
23 Jenrry Mejia, RHP, NYM
24 Michael Taylor, OF, OAK
25 Zach Britton, LHP, BAL

Scouting reports for the top 25 should be free, I think.

Baseball Picture of the Day: Caption Bobby Cox

Hey, it’s 23 days until Pitchers and Catchers! This, ironically, means that Spring Training will start during the Winter Olympics. Oh, the irony of sports naming jargon!

Today’s image in need of a caption:

And before you ask, no, Bobby Cox did not get kicked out here.

Creative Commons:

Tomorrow: Derek Jeter may appear. Or maybe Ichiro. Or Stephen Strasburg. Who knows?

Remington: Why I Think Heyward Won’t Hit Better Than Melky

Noooooo! Just as people were getting over the Milledgeville Insane Asylum fire!

Matt Diaz will probably be the regular (or mostly regular) left fielder, but Melky Cabrera will likely be given a certain number of defensive innings anyway. If Heyward opens up the season on the farm—as Tom and I hope—then Melky could see a few more starts in right. I don’t really expect Heyward to be significantly better in 2010, and certainly not in the first half of 2010, than Melky Cabrera.

Why do I think that Melky and Heyward will be about the same? Justin Upton. In 2007, at the age of 19, Justin Upton posted a .961 OPS (.319/.410/.551) in A+ and AA, and was promoted to the majors. Last year, at the age of 19, Jason Heyward posted a virtually identical .963 OPS (.323/.408/.555) in A+ and AA, and was given 3 games in AAA rather than a late promotion to the majors. In his first 151 games in the big leagues, over the 2007 and 2008 seasons, when he was 19 and 20, Justin Upton batted .242/.334/.435. Considering that Upton’s minor league track record was very similar to Heyward’s, I don’t think this level production is completely unlikely. Remember, last year, in 154 games, Melky batted .274/.336/.416—almost the same as Upton’s line. I’d rather see him getting at-bats in right field the first two months of the season than Heyward. In this league, penny-pinching is no crime.

BPro: Braves Top 11 Prospects

Five-Star Prospects
1. Jason Heyward, OF
2. Julio Teheran, RHP
3. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
4. Freddie Freeman, 1B
Three-Star Prospects
5. Randall Delgado, RHP
6. Christian Bethancourt, C
7. Mike Minor, LHP
8. Craig Kimbrell, RHP
9. Adam Milligan, OF
10. Robinson Lopez, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
11. Cody Johnson, OF

Four More:
12. J.J. Hoover, RHP: An over-slot 10th-round pick from 2008, Hoover showed excellent control and an impressive sinker/slider mix in his full-season debut.
13. Zeke Spruill, RHP: Spruill’s a tall, angular righty who pounds the strike zone with a plus sinker, but his secondary offerings need work.
14. Tyler Stovall, LHP: The lefty showed two plus pitches in Appy League, but a messy delivery and no clue of the strike zone keep him down.
15. Mycal Jones, SS: Jones has impressive tools and upside, but he’s quite raw for his age.

Schultz: Braves need to make a run at Johnny Damon

I haven’t written much on Damon inpart because it was presumed he would simply re-sign with the New York Yankees and, with Scott Boras as his agent, he would ask for an obscene amount of money on the open market. But he’s still out there, with spring training a month away. The asking price — once believed to be in the two-year, $14 million range — almost certainly has come way down.

The Braves are at their self-imposed payroll limit ($90 million). But there’s a difference between being fiscally smart and just plain cheap. Adding Damon makes the Braves better. If they’re better, they win more games and sell more tickets. Maybe they even make the playoffs.

I’ve thought about Damon, but I don’t think there’s anyway the Braves could sign him financially. And I certainly wouldn’t want more than a year or two. Otherwise it might be a pretty good fit.

Pirates claim outfielder Brandon Jones

From the announcement:

The addition of Jones officially puts the Pirates’ 40-man roster at 40 players while the club awaits confirmation between Major League Baseball and The Player’s Association on one of Pittsburgh’s recently-announced free agent signings.

Can anybody translate that from baseball-to-English? Right now, the team’s 40-man roster shows 41 players…

Braves.com: Glavine mulling new job with Braves

Still, while there’s seemingly a good chance that Glavine could soon return to Turner Field to serve as a broadcaster or possibly assume some kind of front-office role, it appears the 43-year-old left-hander has at least resigned himself to the likelihood that he will never throw another pitch in a competitive atmosphere.

“I haven’t officially [retired] yet,” Glavine said. “I don’t know why. I think if anybody has any common sense, they can figure out that I’m probably not going to pitch again.”

With the calm that he displayed while becoming the third-winningest left-hander in the game’s history, Glavine essentially confirmed his plans to retire and re-enter the baseball world in a capacity that remains to be determined.

Deep Left Field: Hutcheson: Speaking of Troy Glaus…

...take it to the McGwire thread.

Nonetheless, deflated expectations is no reason to frag the analysis on what Glaus is likely to bring to the table. 33 years old, which isn’t young but isn’t Chipper either. Prior to last year’s season lost to shoulder surgery he posted four straight years of 120-something OPS+. Gets on base and hits the ball hard. What’s not to love?

Oh, you say, it’s the whole shoulder surgery thing? I can understand that. But here’s the thing. No one outside of the Braves’ (and maybe the Cards’) medical staff know a good damned googly shite about Troy Glaus’ shoulder. Mark Bowman and Dave O’Brien don’t know anything about it. Neither Szymborski and Tango and whomever is doing projections at BP these days have a singular clue about it. None of the great unwashed blogging hordes know a damned thing. (I include Will Carroll here.) All of which means that Glaus represents the worst possible scenario for the sabremetric cognoscenti. He is a case for which we have no reliable data. He quite literally can’t be predicted. The most important factor anyone would need is locked tight underneath the medical staff’s non-compete clauses and Glaus’ right to privacy.

With that said, we are solely dependent on the Braves’ word. It’s a position we never feel comfortable in, but it is the case nonetheless. Atlanta says Glaus is likely to hit his bonus metrics, all of which hinge on playing time. The Braves believe Glaus’ shoulder will be fine. Considering how dead on accurate they were regarding John Smoltz’ shoulder last year, I see no reason to not believe them. Until shown otherwise, I’m pencilling Glaus in for 265/365/480. I’ll take a 120 OPS+ in the cleanup spot, thank you very much. Considering the Casey Kotchman Horror of 2009, that’s a nice thing to look forward

Deep Left Field: Hutcheson: 30 Somethering - Thoughts on the Aughts Part I

Ok...I’m easy.

Obligatory baseball comment that gives Darren cover for posting this to BBTF: Troy Glaus and Chipper Jones will both crack 30+ HRs in 2010. It will be Chipper’s last truly magnificent effort before he fades quietly into his Cooperstown reward.

AJC: Braves add Hinske

Just a few hours after signing Troy Glaus, the Braves added his backup when they agreed to terms with Eric Hinske on a one-year contract to serve as a pinch-hitter and versatile bench player.

Pretty sure Glaus, Hinske and Melky Cabrerra weren’t the top of most Braves fans’ wish list, but there it is.  All sources indicate Atlanta is done for the offseason.  This is the team they go to Florida with.

CBS: Doyel: Remember the ‘80s? Murphy destined to be Hall’s latest decade diss

Doy-El and The Twilight World of No Return!

Nobody has more baseball knowledge than Bill James, the world-famous statistician to the stars, but James was quoted last week in the New York Times with mealy-mouthed indifference toward Murphy’s candidacy: “It certainly wouldn’t offend me to have him in the Hall of Fame. I just wouldn’t advocate it.”

Why the hell not? Murphy played on horrible teams in Atlanta, which wasn’t his fault, but he was more than a great player—he was one of the two or three greatest players from an entire decade, the 1980s, when he was second to Mike Schmidt in overall home runs and second to Eddie Murray in RBI. Both of those guys are in the Hall of Fame, by the way.

Murphy also won two MVP trophies, and of the 20 ballot-eligible players who won that award more than once, 18 are in the Hall. The only ones left out are Murphy and Roger Maris, who also belongs in the Hall for a combination of results and historical oomph, but I’ll let someone else fight that fight.

My fight is for Murphy, and my beef is with an egghead like James, who sniffed to the Times that the decade Murphy dominated was devoid of superstar talent.

Chipper Jones confident of ‘monster’ rebound season | ajc.com

Chipper Jones is 38 years-old. Ugh.

Q: How serious were you in September when you mentioned the possibility of retiring if you have a similar season in 2010? Could you really walk away from the two years and $28 million you’d have left on your contract at that point?

A: I’m on a year-to-year basis right now. If I go out and produce and have the same kind of season I always have had, everything will be fine. But I make no bones about it: There’s certain parts of this lifestyle that I’m sick of. Quite frankly, I’ve lived out of suitcases for 20 years and I’m kind of tired of it. I’ve missed a lot of firsts with my family, missed being able to go on trips with the whole family in the summer. And there’s certain politics that go with playing this game that I don’t want to have to deal with.

On the other hand, you can only play this game for so long, and as long as I can play and have fun, I’ll play. But if I feel like my talents are eroding, I will walk away.

ajc: O’Brien: Don’t like Braves roster … just wait

Some Braves fans are restless, perhaps understandably so. Watching this offseason roster construction process—they traded Javy Vazquez for Melky Cabrera?—can be like watching sausage being made. Not as appetizing as the end result.

Oh, and you know what they say these days about the Braves’ roster: If you don’t like it, don’t worry. It’ll change soon.

Anyway, so much for coasting into the holidays for Braves general manager Frank Wren. He stayed busy this week with two high-profile moves, trading Vazquez to the Yankees in a five-player deal, then agreeing to terms with free-agent slugger Troy Glaus on a deal that won’t be announced until the former American League home-run leader takes a physical after the holidays.

The towering erstwhile third baseman will move to first base, where Glaus has played only six games in his career, and the Braves will hope his surgically repaired shoulder holds up after he missed all but 14 games in 2009.

Thanks to X-Capote.

Bisher Unleashed: The Braves’ Toxic Position

Not all players are scary to people. Not if it’s one playing in the Empire State of the South!

Seems that Adam LaRoche can’t do anything that pleases the Braves. He has passed in and out of their hands like an unwelcome relative. Three years ago, he was traded to the Pirates for one of those closer types, Mike Gonzales—who has since been allowed to take flight to Baltimore.

First base has become the Braves’ toxic position. They next gave Scott Thorman a shot at the job, and that was a choice poorly made. Then you’ll recall the blockbuster gamble, when they raped the farm system of four gold-star prospects and exchanged them for Mark Teixeira from Texas, well-knowing that they probably wouldn’t be able to keep him. And before they even tried, they traded him to California for Casey Kotchman and an undistinguished pitcher. By this time, Teixeira has become an $80-million commodity, played in an All-Star game, and found financial happiness with the Yankees.

...So what do they do? They settle for a converted third baseman, who happens to be on the mend after a season of virtual inactivity. You’ll remember Troy Glaus as a third baseman when he played for California, Toronto and St. Louis. He will play first base for the Braves because he’s cheap, $2 million, so I hear. See, all they want is one season out of him, for in the wings there’s a rookie named Freddie Freeman, who is projected to ripen in time for the 2011 season. So, Glaus is only a stop-gap—-unless Chipper Jones should breaks down, then Glaus can return to his native position, which is third base.

Oh, well. Funny stuff to me, but they nearly got away with it last season, when first base became a position for volunteers. Remember a few years ago, when the Braves low-balled Mark DeRosa? Then he took free agency and came back a $14-million star with the Rangers, Cubs, Cleveland and the Cardinals.

Yahoo Sports: Duk: The top 10 playoff disappointments of the 2000s

Next up are the most disappointing playoff teams of the decade, a group that crept close to the promised land before leaving all of their fans to wonder what might have been. We weighed a number of factors before including each member, but please note that this list does not include any World Series teams. It’s our view that an AL or NL title can rarely be viewed as a total downer. (We’re sure, though, that fans of the 2002 Giants, ‘03 Yankees, ‘04 Cardinals and ‘06 Tigers would like to disagree.)

Robothal: Braves give Glaus one-year deal

The Braves have reached agreement on a one-year contract with free agent Troy Glaus to play first base, according to a major-league source.

I like this.

Chop-N-Change: Interview with Tom Tango

Little bit of prognostication here from Tango:

The MLBPA will be in quite the bind if the savvy of the GMs continues. The MLBPA’s entire strategy was to presume that GMs will act as if they had a gun pointed at their heads. So, they loved the free agency setup that drove prices up, which in turn acted as a driver to arbitration deals. Now, things have changed. When quality guys who are arb-eligible are getting released, then you know that there’s an overpricing going on. The compensation system for “free” agents (the Orlandos last year) moves the value from the player to the team losing the player. I would not be surprised if the MLBPA will insist on revenue sharing like the NHL, and to get rid of the compensation system. It’ll be a fascinating story to follow when the CBA expires following the 2011 season.

NBC Sports - Circling the Bases: Relax Braves fans, this deal is not so bad

A reasonable call for calm.

Longtime reader ECP comments:  “C’mon now, Craig, it’s the Braves!  It’s your team; you are allowed to add some acerbic commentary!  How do you REALLY feel about this?”

I’ll be honest, I feel rather “meh” about it. I’m not going to lie to you and tell you I’m excited about Melky freakin’ Cabrera, because I’m not. He’s a fine player, but his press has been outsized by the fact that he has played in New York. There are a lot of Melky Cabreras out there, and my team just traded a dude who got Cy Young votes for him.  But here are some random thoughts that make generally fine about it:

Yankees land Javier Vazquez

Klawing their way over the top…

Javier Vazquez is coming back to the Bronx.

The Daily News has learned that the Yankees will acquire the righthanded pitcher from the Braves along with lefthanded reliever Boone Logan, sending Melky Cabrera, lefty Mike Dunn and another minor leaguer to the Braves…

Cabrera’s departure leaves the Yankees with a gaping hole in left field, potentially re-opening the door for a return by Johnny Damon.

Bowman: Caray to Call Games on Fox Sports Net

Chip Caray received an early Christmas present on Monday morning, when Fox Sports Net hired him to serve as their play-by-play announcer for all the Braves games televised by Fox Sports South and SportSouth. 

This was the role previously held by Jon “Boog” Sciambi, who accepted a full-time role with ESPN at the conclusion of this past season. 

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Also, I called it.

O’Brien: LaRoche says Braves haven’t contacted him

LaLobbying.

Asked Friday whether he’d heard anything from the Braves since becoming a free agent, LaRoche replied in a text message: “No talk from ATL that I know of. Guess I should have hit .400 while I was there.”

LaRoche hit .325 with 12 homers, 40 RBIs, a .401 on-base percentage and .557 slugging percentage in 57 games after being traded to the Braves from the Boston Red Sox on July 31.

Braves officials have kept private most details of their offseason plans and maneuverings this year, and all general manager Frank Wren has said about LaRoche is that the Braves haven’t ruled out attempting to re-sign him.

Wren was asked Friday about the lack of contact with LaRoche and whether the Braves still have interest in bringing him back after taking care of other matters this winter.

“We have contacted him early in the offseason to let his representative know our plans,” Wren answered in an e-mail.

Heyman: Big teams still have moves to make

Just for BBC:

The Astros are telling teams Lance Berkman is unavailable. The Red Sox are one team to have inquired.

And for the Met fans:

Of Igarashi, the Japanese reliever who’s about to go to the Mets, one Japanese scout said, “I’ve seen him great but he wasn’t great last year.’’

AZ Central/Piecoro: D-backs Checked In On Valverde, Targeting Johnson

Not the Big Unit:

2B Kelly Johnson appears to be the Diamondbacks’ top target at the moment. We still think they’d end up dealing IF Augie Ojeda if they get Johnson, in part because the savings on Ojeda would help off-set the cost of signing Johnson. They also think IF Tony Abreu can handle the utility infield role.

With the obligatory Pirates reference:

As for RHP Matt Capps, Diamondbacks people expect him to require a two-year deal and they don’t sound likely to give it to him.

Braves Trade Soriano to Tampa Bay Rays

The Atlanta Braves traded relief pitcher Rafael Soriano to the Tampa Bay Rays a week after Soriano accepted Atlanta’s arbitration offer.

The Braves will receive right-hander Jesse Chavez.

Latests buzz from major league baseball’s winter meetings - Jon Heyman - SI.com

The Braves have traded reliever Rafael Soriano to the Rays, SI.com has learned. The deal will be complete after medical data is reviewed.

Soriano will approve the deal. He accepted arbitration, but the Braves didn’t have a spot for him after signing Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito.

Braves.com: Lackey coveted, but Lowe price is right

Even with his disappointing second half, Lowe might have still entered this year’s offseason as the top available free-agent starting pitcher.

...

Given the economic decisions that are seemingly affecting this year’s market, perhaps clubs will start viewing the cheaper Lowe as being a more attractive option than Lackey.

I don’t know if it is true that teams would view Lowe as valuable as Lackey, I just hope that it is. Any ideas on possible landing spots?

Atlanta Journal-Constitution: [Rafael] Soriano surprises Braves, accepts arbitration

Just before midnight Monday, Rafael Soriano’s agent said what the Braves did not want to hear: Soriano has accepted the team’s arbitration offer, giving the Braves a high-priced reliever they had already replaced and can’t realistically afford to keep.

Mike Gonzalez declined the arbitration offer, but Soriano took it and stands to make between $7 million and $8 million. The Braves will get two compensatory draft picks when Gonzalez signs with another team, but they’ll try trading away Soriano – but must give his consent to do so before June 15.
...
There’s not room in a projected $92 million-$95 million payroll to allocate as much as $18 million for three relievers, which is what it could cost to keep Soriano, Wagner and Saito. Still, the Braves insisted Monday it wouldn’t leave them in a payroll pickle if Soriano accepted arbitration.

“He’d make the world’s greatest setup guy,” Cox said Monday afternoon of Soriano, who had 27 saves and 102 strikeouts in 75-2/3 innings last season.
...
“I would anticipate that if they take arbitration, they’re not necessarily going to be happy with the roles they have when they come back,” Wren said before the decisions were announced. “Because they’re not going to be the same as when they left. And once the market develops for relievers, they’ll be asking us to try to [trade] them.”

ESPN: [Rafael] Soriano’s decision ‘going down to wire’

It’s been widely speculated that right-hander Rafael Soriano, who was offered salary arbitration by the Braves this week, will decline the offer and hit the open market as a free agent. But Soriano’s agent said Saturday that the pitcher is giving serious consideration to accepting arbitration and returning to Atlanta for a one-year deal.

“It’s going to go down to the wire,’’ said agent Peter Greenberg. “It’s definitely going to be a last-minute decision for us.’’

While Braves manager Bobby Cox might welcome having Soriano back in the fold, the pitcher’s return would make for a pricey bullpen in Atlanta.
...
The Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Orioles, Tigers, Red Sox and Astros are among the teams believed to have some interest in Soriano and/or Gonzalez on the open market. But Jose Valverde and Fernando Rodney are among the other closers available, and Greenberg said Soriano will take his time weighing his options.

“We know there’s a lot of interest in Rafael, but we still don’t have a sense yet whether [salary] arbitration or going on the free market is in his best interests,’’ Greenberg said.