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Thursday, July 02, 2009

Basement Dwellers: What’s wrong with Bronson Arroyo?

NOTHING! He has one bad start out of every six or seven which screws up his ERA! Bronson Arroyo is the solution to all the Yankees’ proble...(sudden dismissive hand wave - Diet Coke ascites retention alert)

What I’m seeing here is a steady decline in his k/9 rates from mid-last season until now. His k/9 rate this year is its lowest since 2005 when with the Red Sox, and to me is looking pretty scary. I’ve long believed that Bronson’s bellweather stat is his strikeout rate, so color me concerned.

I’m no scout, so I can’t give you a precise cause. But let’s play a bit: his fastball run value has taken a huge hit this year, and appears to be where the problem lies among his major pitches from the pitch value data. But his fastball velocity, as he said, is essentially unchanged vs last year. And his fastball pitchf/x movement looks similar (maybe a slight drop in vertical movement, but not as large as 2007 vs 2008). Run values on his curve ball and change are actually improved this year, and are mostly unchanged on his slider, so those pitches look fine.

His walk rate is up this year. So, here’s a hypothesis: Arroyo’s not spotting his fastball this season, and so he can’t use it to properly set up his breaking slop as he usually does. And he’s behind in the count more than usual, causing him to give better pitches to hit. I can’t do my own pitchf/x at this point, but would someone like to test this who can assess strike zones? Maybe compare balls vs strikes on all 3-1 and 3-2 counts in 2009 vs. 2008 in which he threw a fastball? I’ve gone as far as I can go.

Repoz Posted: July 02, 2009 at 07:27 AM | 0 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsProjectionsCincinnati

Wednesday, July 01, 2009

MLB: Hot hitters squeezed out of Reds’ order

Some of the hottest bats the Reds have right now never left the dugout during Tuesday’s game vs. the D-backs.

Outfielders Jonny Gomes and Chris Dickerson weren’t in the starting lineup, nor was backup catcher Ryan Hanigan.

..."You can’t play everybody,” Reds manager Dusty Baker said. “I have a plan on how to keep them sharp and productive for themselves and us at the same time. We knew that could potentially happen when we started. You don’t have a good team unless you have too many good bodies.”

...Hanigan saw his playing time dwindle once Joey Votto returned from the disabled list. Regular catcher Ramon Hernandez (.246 average entering Wednesday) played first base while Votto was out.

“Ramon has been one of our best, clutch RBI guys,” Baker said. “Even though his average isn’t indicative, but his runners in scoring position [.321 average] and his RBI total [32] is.”

Which means...he is going to do it forever and ever and ever and…

Repoz Posted: July 01, 2009 at 09:15 AM | 4 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralCincinnati

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Bronson Arroyo may have surgery

As a shocked Moulty sends out a half-Kozakiewicz gesture to Arroyo.

Bronson Arroyo said Sunday he is considering having offseason surgery for his carpal-tunnel syndrome, and not just for pitching purposes.

The right-hander still is not able to pursue his recreational passion of playing the guitar.

“It’s driving me crazy,” Arroyo said. “Every single time I get to the hotel room or I’m at the house and it’s 2 o’clock in the morning, I’m irritated because I can’t play the guitar. I just can’t do it, because it gets numb.”

As he spoke, Arroyo thumbed through a rock music magazine while seated in the Progressive Field visitors’ clubhouse.

Repoz Posted: June 28, 2009 at 04:52 PM | 2 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralCincinnati

Saturday, June 27, 2009

The Real McCoy: A night of Red-faced embarrassments

The Embarrassment: Death Travels...East.

Embarassing.

The Indians had lost eight of nine and in the last 11 days had blown two five-run leads and a seven-run lead. Not even close on this night.

Embarrassing.

Aaron Harang, the so-called team ace, is 0-4 over his last six starts with a 5.03 ERA. And he gave up seven runs (five earned) in 4 2/3 innings to the last place Indians. And 10 screeching and howling hits.

Brandon Phillips made a la-de-dah throw from second base, a lob that bounced in front of first baseman Joey Votto and skipped past for a throwing error that led to two unearned run. Then Phillips hit one that he thought was a home run and went into his strut, but the ball hit the top of the wall and bounced back in.

Phillips is being short and snippy with the media since we all reported that he refused to look for a sign from the third base coach in Kansas City and swung at a 3-and-0 pitch when he had the take sign.

Embarrassing. Embarrassing. Embarrassing. Phillips has too much talent to piddle it away.

Repoz Posted: June 27, 2009 at 12:28 AM | 7 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralCincinnatiCleveland

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Beyond the Boxscore: Moore: Jay Bruce and Balls in Play

That’s Moore Jay Bruce Balls in Play, not More Jay Bruce Balls in Play...because that would be unpossible.

Jay Bruce’s contribution to this team has certainly been significant.  His contributions total to 1.4 wins above replacement so far, which is roughly .5 wins above average, and over 600 plate appearances this production would total 3.1 wins.

However, Bruce’s reputation as a prospect was as an elite hitter.  Bruce’s contributions this year have been almost completely with the glove, posting a +7.9 UZR in RF.  His hitting has been merely average, with his .332 wOBA resulting in an insignificant total runs below average.  Bruce put up a similar .328 wOBA in 452 PAs (180 more than his current 2009 total of 272).  Common to both of his lines is a low BABIP on fly balls and line drives.  Thanks to a 21.1% line drive rate, despite a LD BABIP lower than the NL average by 29 points and a FB BABIP lower than the NL average by a whopping 56 points (39% of the NL BABIP), Bruce still maintained a .298 BABIP.  Unfortunately for Bruce and the Reds, his line drive rate fell precipitously to 13.8% this year, and, unbelievably, so did his BABIPs on fly balls and line drive.  A ridiculously low .560 BABIP on LDs and and unfathomable .025 FB BABIP have led to an overall BABIP of .205 through June 22nd.

...Bruce’s BABIP woes, however they’re caused, have removed over a win from his value in 728 PAs.  In fact, considering Bruce’s 0.5 WAR last year and 1.4 WAR this year, Bruce’s results on balls in play are reducing his value by nearly a third to a half.  Personally, I would be interested in seeing some Hit F/X analysis on this issue, but I don’t have access to the data.  Hopefully for Reds fans, it’s merely a case of bad luck.  Despite Bruce’s 2008 looking decent by overall BABIP, he still lost a lion’s share of value from below average LD and FB BABIP.  His value going forward could depend on it improving, not to mention the Reds playoff chances.

Repoz Posted: June 25, 2009 at 11:31 AM | 10 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsCincinnati

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Cincinnati Enquirer: Father’s death affected Votto

Wow. This sounds scary…

“I spoke to some doctors. They came to the conclusion I was dealing with obviously being depressed and anxiety and panic attacks. They were overwhelming me to the point where I had to go to the hospital on two separate occasions. Once in San Diego and once – nobody had been told about this – but I went to the hospital once in Cincinnati when the team was on the road.

“It was a very, very scary and crazy night. I had to call 911 at 3 or 4 in the morning. It was probably the scariest moment I ever dealt with in my life. I went to the hospital that night.”

vortex of dissipation Posted: June 23, 2009 at 10:15 PM | 9 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralCincinnati

The Perpetual Post: Megdal & Pummer: Unlikely Buyers: Reds or White Sox?

The Inside World of the Central…

Megdal:...The leadoff hitter and center fielder, Willy Taveras, couldn’t be sabotaging the Reds more if he had been paid off by gamblers. He’s hitting .224/.274/.278, and doing it out of the leadoff spot! Alex Gonzalez is having a similar season at shortstop, hitting .214/.256/.302.  Fangraphs has both players’ UZR at slightly above average, but not nearly high enough to justify a lineup spot with their putrid production.

Upgrading either or both positions thus would not only help the Reds tremendously, but the production from both players is so poor that a trade-deadline pickup doesn’t need to be a star to dramatically upgrade the positions. Finding a .750 OPS center fielder or shortstop isn’t very difficult, but would represent a 150-200 point pickup for the Reds.

With a young team, the Reds shouldn’t be mortgaging the whole future for 2009. But as good as they already are, they owe it to themselves and their fans to see if they can grab a flag in this mediocre National League that will fly, I am told, forever.

Repoz Posted: June 23, 2009 at 09:40 AM | 18 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralChi White SoxCincinnati

Monday, June 15, 2009

Cincinnati Enquirer: Phillips lighter in the wallet

Brandon Phillips was back in the lineup Sunday after ignoring a 3-0 take sign Saturday. Reds manager Dusty Baker indicated but did not say outright that he fined Phillips.

...

Phillips swung away at 3-0 pitch in Saturday night’s 7-4 loss to the and flied out to right. The play came after Kansas City pitcher Kyle Davies had walked two in the inning.

Afterward Phillips said he didn’t even look for the sign: “I tried to make something happen. For future reference, I will not do it again. I apologized to everybody: My bad for a 3-0 swing. I tried to make something happen.”

Baker was unimpressed with the explanation.

“I heard it,” Baker said. “I talked to him about it. He admitted he said it. Some people do wrong and try to justify and make it look right. It’s still wrong.”

Players ignoring a take sign isn’t just unusual, it’s unprecedented.

“It’s the first time it happened to me since I’ve been managing, and it’s the last time it will happen. End of subject,” Baker said. “The more you talk the worse it sounds. It’s over.”

Coot Veal and Cot Deal, Esq. Posted: June 15, 2009 at 06:27 AM | 14 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: Cincinnati

Sunday, June 14, 2009

MLB: Taveras in career-worst slump: 0 - 32

Dennis Menke AND a dud...this can only mean one thing!

It’s not a coincidence that the Reds’ lack of runs lately is coming at a time when the guy that’s supposed to be their catalyst isn’t getting on base.

That would be leadoff hitter Willy Taveras, who is in a career worst 0-for-32 skid.

It’s gotten to be a pretty historic hitless slump for Taveras, who was 0-for-4 with a sacrifice bunt during Saturday’s 7-4 loss to the Royals. No Reds position players have gone that long without a hit since Dennis Menke went 0-for-33 in 1973. More recently, Jason LaRue was 0-for-30 in 2006 and Alex Ochoa had a 0-for-31 streak in 2001.

As far manager Dusty Baker was concerned, the sore right hamstring that kept Taveras out for eight games recently had nothing to do with his lack of hitting.

“No, he wasn’t hitting before that,” Baker said. “We have to find a way to get him on base. He makes us go. Not to put it all on Willy, when our offense is clicking, Willy is getting on base a lot. He needs to get on base pretty soon or he’s about to go crazy. He holds a lot inside. He wants to do so well.”

Repoz Posted: June 14, 2009 at 10:34 AM | 20 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralCincinnati

The Real McCoy: Baker, Phillips disagree on 3-and-0 swing

Remember the thrill you got finding that issue of Striparama Magazine with the tasty Cup-Cake Cassidy spread in it? This might be better.

JUST WHEN YOU think you’ve seen it all, something head-shaking happens. In the fifth inning Saturday of the Reds 7-4 loss, KC pitcher Kyle Davies walked two. Brandon Phillips was up and had a 3-and-0 count. Take one pitch? Take two pitches? Naw, he swung away and flied to right. Un-beeeeee-leeeee-vable. And at the time Davies had thrown 93 pitches in 5 2/3 innings.

Was he given the hit-away sign. Was he given the take sign. He was given the take sign and ignored it. Didn’t even look for the sign.

Manager Dusty Baker was not happy and said Phillips missed the take sign, but Phillips said, “Why shouldn’t swing in that situation? To tell you the truth, I didn’t even look for a sign.

“Honestly, in that situation, why wouldn’t I swing at a 3-and-0, that’s just my opinion. We only had two hits at the time and our offense stinks right now. I respect my teammates and they see what’s going on. We haven’t faced anybody that overmatched us. If we’re facing No. 1 pitchers, but we’re not and our team is too damn good to be making outs against the pitchers we face. We should be undefeated on this trip.”

Baker disagrees about Phillips swinging at the 3-0.

“That was the big play and Brandon was supposed to be taking,” he said. “That could have been the ball game. We had the pitcher on the ropes, he had just walked two and thrown nine balls, then threw three more balls and we gave Brandon the take. Said he didn’t see it. In that situation, you have to know to take that pitch even if you didn’t see the sign.”

Phillips disagrees with that, too.

“We were struggling getting men on base and we’re not hitting with runners in scoring position,” Phillips said. “I had the opportunity, I swung at 3-0. I was trying to make something happen and it didn’t happen. If I would have come through it would have been the best play of the year. For future reference, I will not do it again. I apologized to everybody.”

Repoz Posted: June 14, 2009 at 12:09 AM | 15 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralFantasy BaseballSabermetricsCincinnati

Thursday, June 11, 2009

FOX Sports: Fraley: It’s no shame to be stressed

“Phlegmy Revenge: The Dick Ruthvendetta” (a team in my fantasy league) is destroying baseball!

Dusty Baker said there is more pressure in the game now than at any time in his career, which began when he broke in as a 19-year-old outfielder with Atlanta in 1968. He listed factors ranging from increased salaries to the proliferation of fantasy leagues.

To counter the pressures, Baker relates what famed NFL coach Bill Walsh told him in a private conversation shortly before his death. Maintain a balance in your life, Walsh told Baker. Keep everything in perspective.

Easier said than done.

“That is very tough to do in our game,’’ Baker said. “It’s a high-pressure world. Sometimes, they (anxieties) wake you up you up in the middle of the night. They do with me, and I’m not even playing.’’

Playing can be the easy part, because the body takes over. It’s all the other times that can cause problems for everyone in the game.

Repoz Posted: June 11, 2009 at 06:36 AM | 7 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralFantasy BaseballSpecial TopicsCincinnati

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

The Real McCoy: Dunn on Phillips: ‘Nice, really nice’

Adam Dunn hadn’t heard the words from Brandon Phillips, the words Phillips uttered in St. Louis, words obviously aimed at Dunn without using his name.

Laynce Nix had a big day against the Cardinals, a couple of hits and a couple of outstanding catches and I asked Phillips after the game about Nix. One of the things he said was, “It’s great to have a guy who not only hits the ball but catches the ball.”

Said Dunn when told of the comment, “Nice. Real nice. I’ll have to ask Brandon about it. Second thought, no I won’t. I could probably think of something nasty or humorous to say. But, hey, that’s Brandon. He has to let me go. I’m not there any more. Let me go.”

Lyrical enough to make Eddie Miller’s heirs get on the phone…

Repoz Posted: June 10, 2009 at 08:27 AM | 7 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralCincinnatiWashington

Thursday, June 04, 2009

RotoSynthesis: Keri: BABIP of the Week: Jay Bruce

More like BABIPIL (Batting Average on Balls In Play In Louisville).

Either way, we now have a player hitting .216 for the season. That’s .216/.294/.474 overall, and here’s where we get to the good stuff: 14 HR (6th in the NL), 30 RBI and 29 R so far this year. Indeed, while Bruce’s extreme flyball rates make him a potential batting average liability, batters who hit a lot more flyballs than groundballs are also more likely to hit the ball out of the ballpark, assuming they’ve got the power to do so.

Bruce obviously does, with an Isolated Slugging number (ISO) of .258, 24th-highest in the majors. He’s improved in other ways too, hiking his BB/K rate to 0.42 (up from 0.30 last year) and his BB/AB rate up to 0.90/PA (0.73 last year).

...Jay Bruce is not going to come at the same bottom of the barrel discount that you’d get for, say, David Ortiz right now. Bruce is just 22 years old, and fantasy owners are seduced by youth and potential, even in non-keeper leagues. But you can probably get him for 85 cents on the dollar. You absolutely should go after him. Even if the low line drive rate holds, Bruce has still been so unlucky that a .240-.250 average with tons of power and run production should be in the cards for him for the rest of the season.

And if things really start to click, Jay Bruce could be the reason you win your league.

Repoz Posted: June 04, 2009 at 04:28 PM | 3 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsCincinnati

Saturday, May 30, 2009

Joey Votto to DL due to Stress-related issues

The Cincinnati Reds have placed first baseman Joey Votto (stress) on the 15-day disabled list, due to stress-related issues.

Votto had been off to an excellent start this season, batting .357 with eight home runs and 33 RBIs through 38 games, but he has been battling an inner ear infection for more than two weeks, which has often left him feeling lightheaded. It is likely that the stress is related to the ear infection, which has knocked him out of games on three separate occasions this month.

The Reds are expected to turn to Ramon Hernandez to play first base during Votto’s absence. Although he’s primarily known for his work behind the plate, Hernandez has played 11 games at first this year, including eight starts.

My fantasy team is doomed. And, depending on how long he’s out, so are the Reds.

Gamingboy Posted: May 30, 2009 at 04:48 PM | 20 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralCincinnati

McCoy: Baker likes chemistry of his young team

Dusty Baker studying stats?...BRITKL!...Susty Staker sudsing bats...ZZYPPH!!...Busty Rekaber bsitning atz...FOOOOOOOOOOS!!!........ (hello, HP...HELP!)

Dusty Baker was in a reflective mood as he studied stats and scribbled notes before sending his Cincinnati Reds on the field against the Milwaukee Brewers.

“One of the top decisions of my life was coming here (to Cincinnati),” he said. “I like being here and plan to be here for a long time, if they’ll have me here.”

Baker was asked about the Reds being baseball’s surprise team and he said, “Well, we are for now. You don’t surprise people for very long. If you surprise some people, fine. If not, no problem. If they give us credit, fine, if they don’t, fine. Just keep playing.”

...Baker said it has come about because there is more young talent than the Reds are accustomed to having, “More exuberance, more excitement, guys taking losses harder. We have good character on this ball club, which is what we wanted to do and change. You scout character when you try to put pieces to the puzzle back together and they haven’t had the pieces together here for a long time.

..."I see similarities,” said Baker. “We try to play good fundamental ball and have good pitching and Minnesota was in the bottom in home runs, but the top five in runs scored. Very simple. He who touches home plate the most wins, no matter how you get there.”

Repoz Posted: May 30, 2009 at 12:05 AM | 0 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsCincinnati

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

From The Negro Leagues To The Majors

Today, we spotlight a family whose Negro League and Major League roots are still shining on the today’s baseball diamond. It started with grandfather Sam Hairston, who began his career as a catcher for the Birmingham Black Barons in 1944.

After winning the Negro League American League’s Triple Crown in 1950, Hairston would be come the first African-American player signed by the Chicago White Sox.

His two sons, Johnny and Jerry, would go on to become Major Leaguers. Both would also put time in the Windy City; Johnny briefly with the Cubbies and Jerry with the White Sox.

And now the third generation of Hairstons, both second baseman, continue one of the longest traditions of African American ballplayers. Jerry Jr., began his career with the Baltimore Orioles in 1998.


Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Lackey: Dusty Baker Sends Aaron Harang Back Out After 2 Hour Rain Delay

Harang only 437 Wins behind Cy Young...and closing fast!

The Cincinnati Enquirer’s John Fay posted Baker’s reasoning on his blog last night:

“I’m just glad the delay wasn’t any longer,” Baker said. “He wanted it badly. He wanted very badly.”

Baker felt the risk was minimal.

“As long as kept throwing,” Baker said. “There’s a risk every time a guy goes out there. We were concerned. He wanted the game and he deserved a chance to go get that.”

I get that Baker wanted to show faith in one of his veterans, but Harang threw 83 pitches before the delay, then kept throwing through the delay to stay loose, then had to warm up again when the game re-started, and finally, he needed eight pitches to strike out Quintero, at which point he was shelved for the night.

Baker might have felt the risk was minimal, but I’m not sure anyone in their right mind would agree with him. He put a ton of extra and unnecessary stress on the arm of one of his best pitchers, just so that pitcher could pick up a cosmetic counting stat that he “wanted badly.” Of course, the Reds are only 2 1/2 games out of first place, so hey, here’s to baseball alchemy.

Repoz Posted: May 26, 2009 at 12:36 PM | 34 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralFantasy BaseballCincinnatiAwards

Monday, May 25, 2009

Boswell: A Paul Bunyan In Their Midst

with Dunn the blue donkey.

Throughout his eight years with the Reds, five of them 40-homer seasons, Adam Dunn was typecast as the easy-going lug who didn’t care enough—about the team, his defense, his conditioning. That image was part of the reason the Nats got him when the free agent market dried up and his phone didn’t ring. Why, $20 million was enough to get a 275-pound slugger for two years. The Nats probably could have signed him for a third year, too, but shied away. Dunn says that image was never him. Whatever. It’s not him now.

All season the 13-30 Nats have found inventive ways to lose every sort of game. No recapitulations, please. In the seventh, the wheels of baseball malice seemed to be turning again. After two singles, Acta chose to have Cristian Guzmán (.349) sacrifice bunt, knowing the Orioles would walk Ryan Zimmerman (.348) intentionally so the slow-footed double-play-prone Dunn would have to face Walker whose role in life is to face hitters exactly like Dunn.

“I thought, ‘Let ‘em pitch to Dunn,’ “ said Acta, ignoring Dunn’s history of 170-strikeout years. “He showed how important he is to our lineup and how much we needed him over here. It’s a totally different story when you have a guy like Dunn behind Zimmerman.”

“I like it,” said Dunn, considering Acta’s strategic sacrifice of Guzman and Zimmerman, just so he could be the man. “It’s good to know my manager has confidence in me.” With that, to his credit, he rolled his eyes to the sky.

Repoz Posted: May 25, 2009 at 09:23 PM | 6 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralCincinnatiWashington

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Redleg Nation: Dotson: Marty and Thom and Jim

And here I thought Betty Ann Smiddy leaving the Brennamans out of her “Cincinnati’s Great Disasters” book was silly.

Since DirecTV and MLB Extra Innings entered my home, my opportunities to listen to Marty Brennaman on the radio have been more rare. Marty and Joe Nuxhall provided the soundtrack to my childhood, and I remain a loyal fan of Marty’s. Yes, he has grown a little more bitter about the Reds over the years (who hasn’t?), but he’s still the best in the business (Non-Vin Scully Division), as far as I’m concerned.

Thursday and Friday provided an opportunity to catch a few innings on the radio, and I came away with some impressions. First, I listened to the last 2-3 innings of the Thursday afternoon game as I was driving. Marty and Thom Brennaman were doing the game, and I loved it. Those two are my favorite on the radio, and the interplay between them is fun.

Friday, driving home from my daughter’s softball game, I caught a couple of innings with Marty and Jim Kelch, who has been announcing Louisville Bats games for years. Let me tell you: Kelch is very good. The way he described the action was simply fantastic, and it reminded me of … a young Marty Brennaman. Until recently, Marty could draw a picture with words unlike anyone I’ve ever heard (again, Non-Vin Scully Division).

Repoz Posted: May 23, 2009 at 05:10 PM | 7 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralCincinnatiMediaAnnouncers

Thursday, May 21, 2009

McCoy: Votto diagnosis: inner ear infection

Damn clogging up the…

After two weeks of testing for everything imaginable it came down to the simplest of the simple. Inner ear infection.

First, Votto had an upper respiratory infection that caused him to miss four games and it is believed that when the team flew to Phoenix from Cincinnati that brought on the inner ear infection and caused his dizziness and loss of focus. Then when he flew to San Diego from Phoenix it happened again.

Votto has not had any of the symptoms since he returned from San Diego to Cincinnati and took indoor batting practice today. Manager Dusty Baker said he’ll do all the pre-game activities with the team Friday and see where he is.

“I’m glad they found out what it was, that’s No. 1,” said Baker. “Thankful and grateful. There was a lot of stuff floating around out there from a lot of neighborhood doctors. He told me last night he was feeling good, but we’ll give him a couple of days to let him get his feet under him.”

Repoz Posted: May 21, 2009 at 12:10 PM | 18 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralCincinnati

The Greatest Autographed Baseballs of All Time

But mind you, some signed baseballs are better than others.  Ones that have a real personal touch.  Ones that connect a player to a fan, a moment, or even … history.

Okay - these aren’t great like a baseball signed by the ‘27 Yankees, but they’re freaking hilarious.

Bret the Jet Posted: May 21, 2009 at 11:36 AM | 6 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: HistoryHall of FameMemorabiliaBostonChi CubsCincinnatiNY YankeesToronto

Monday, May 18, 2009

Red Reporter: Interview with the Reds Assistant Director of Baseball Operations

Vervin’ good stuff with Krall, Nick Krall.

RR: The Reds have made a few player personnel decisions over the last 6 months that appear to have been in favor of defense over offensive players.  What has been the organization’s reasoning behind these moves?

NK: Let’s use Jay Bruce as an example.  Bruce played centerfield last year.  Jay Bruce statistically wasn’t a great centerfielder, but he was good in right.  So he goes from playing out of position to playing his normal position and Taveras comes in to play centerfield.  If an average fielder catches 88% of the balls in centerfield and you get around 300-400 balls in centerfield, Willy Taveras is at 90% - he catches 2% more of the balls.  So say he catches 8 balls a year more than the average, assuming Jay Bruce is an average centerfielder.  If Willy is catching 8 extra balls, that’s 8 extra at bats that we’ll see.  Two or three of the following hitters will get on base because of those at bats, so that’s 11 total extra at bats that Willy has probably prevented.  Now you add in the other guys that are out there (Bruce, Dickerson, Hairston, etc.) and compare them to the players that were previously out there and you could have upwards of 75 at bats saved in the outfield.  We’ve got a flyball pitching staff - that’s no secret.  You may get 50 extra balls caught, but it’s not just those 50 extra balls that matter.  It’s the .330 on base percentage after that plus the .330 on base percentage after that.  It’s not just those outs, but the effects of those outs on limiting the number of overall at bats.

If you are eliminating 75 at bats during the season, it means that fewer pitches are thrown, which means the starter can go longer in the game.  If you look at the team in 2006, we had relievers who threw a lot of innings before the All Star break and then by the second half they were worn out or hurt.  You are putting a lot of pressure on the relievers.  So, improving the defense actually improves your pitching staff because you make more outs and you don’t have throw as many pitches.  You don’t have to get a reliever up and sit him down as many times because the pitcher on the mound has things under control and so the reliever gets a real day of rest.  That’s where our defense has really improved in that way.

Repoz Posted: May 18, 2009 at 03:21 PM | 2 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsProjectionsCincinnati

Thursday, May 14, 2009

THT: Wyers: Thou shalt sow, but thou shalt not reap

Colin takes a detailed look at Micah (no, not Marshal Micah...you crazy Paul Fix fan) Owings.

On May 10, pitcher Micah Owings bought the Reds a shot at extra innings with a pinch hit home run. This brings up the perpetual question: Is Micah Owings best utilized as a hitter or a pitcher?

We should begin by talking a common language; it’s possible to compare hitters to hitters and pitchers to pitchers with metrics like OPS and ERA respectively (albeit with the recognition that there are better alternatives to those as well). But to compare apples to oranges we need a pan-fruit metric. As longtime readers might expect, my metric of choice for this purpose is Wins Above Replacement. For those who aren’t longtime readers, WAR is essentially an expression of how many wins a player is worth compared to the generally available replacements available, such as minor-league journeymen or free agents willing to work for the league minimum.

...Again courtesy of Fangraphs, his projected FIP-ERA going forward is 4.59; that works out to almost five runs per game. In a league where the average is 4.65, and in a hitter’s park like the Great American Ballpark, that works out to a projected 1.33 WAR in 120 innings for Owings. (Probably a little better than that, since he would still accumulate some value from his hitting even as a pitcher.) So a below average pitcher, to be sure, but it’s possible that the Reds don’t have a better starting pitcher than Owings available.

Owings seems to be comfortably nested in the grey area where he’s neither a great asset or a great liability as a pitcher. But what about as a hitter?

Repoz Posted: May 14, 2009 at 08:59 AM | 12 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsProjectionsCincinnati

The Real McCoy: Say it out loud: FIRST PLACE (tie)

“Our swagger is real nice right now and our team chemistry is gorgeous,” said Brandon Phillips. “This is the best team I’ve ever played on.”

Gorgeous? Did he say gorgeous. When’s the last time you heard an athlete use that word to describe teammates. It’s a first for me.

And first place?

“This is just the beginning,” he said. “It’s just like getting to the major leagues — the hardest thing is to stay there. Anybody can get there, but it is all about staying there. But it does feel good.

“Plus our pitching is gorgeous,” he added. “It makes us play defense because they are not wasting time and not walking anybody.”

Gorgeous George Foster? Uhh, no.

Repoz Posted: May 14, 2009 at 07:03 AM | 13 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralCincinnati

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

The Real McCoy: Baseball writing takes a sad turn

A lot of my pals don’t any more, a lot of talented people victimized by the economy and newspaper cutbacks. One of the best is Tony Jackson, who covered the Cincinnati Reds for the now-defunct Cincinnati Post. He was covering the Dodgers for the Los Angeles Daily News until a week ago. He was laid off. So long, farewell, thanks for coming.

Hall of Fame writer Tracy Ringolsby and Jack Etkin, two of the best beat writers in the country, were without jobs when the Rocky Mountain News in Denver published its last edition this year.

Another good friend, Jack Magruder, was covering the Arizona Diamondbacks for the East Valley Tribune — until the EVT decided to no longer print a newspaper and Jack was swept out the door. Saw him today and he is hanging in there by doing freelance work.

And how heartless was this? A backup beat writer and a columnist with the Baltimore Sun were in the press box at Camden Yards. They received phone calls. In the press box as they worked. Their services were no longer needed and please leave your laptop computers before you walk out the door. Don’t forget the power units, too.

More sad news today, which is what prompted this. Tom Krasovic has covered the San Diego Padres for at least 10 years, maybe longer, for the San Diego Union-Tribune. He is from Dayton, a Carroll High School graduate, and worked as a copy boy at the old Dayton Journal Herald. He was part of 150 jobs eliminated by the Union-Tribune this week and has a job only until July 31.

So go ahead, Delta, crush my luggage. Lose it. And if P.F. Chang’s wants to serve my chicken with bean sauce ice cold, I’ll use my lighter to heat it up. Malaria? I’ll take it. Stiff neck? Bring it on.

Tripon Posted: May 13, 2009 at 01:50 PM | 44 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralBusinessMediaHistoryCommunitySpecial TopicsRumorsBaltimoreCincinnatiLA DodgersSan Diego

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Church of Baseball: Adam Rosales is annoying

But the Brennaman clan digs Rosealess!

Look, I don’t know the guy, and maybe I’m more annoyed at the reaction in Redsland to him, but I have an unfavorable opinion of him after an initial high approval rating. The guy IS NOT the second coming of Pete Rose! Funny how people in Cincinnati pretty much ran a potential HOFer out of town because he “struck out too much” but they’ll embrace a “scrappy” guy with a hot bat and dreadful defense based on the fact that he sprints to his position.

Frankly, I think his “hustle” is idiotic. There is a finite amount of energy in the human body, and he wastes his on those moronic sprints to first after a walk or the even more moronic sprint around the bases after a homer. Maybe he could reserve some of that energy for his crappy defense. He certainly isn’t going to cut it as a zero-range bobble-handed third baseman. If I were a stathead, I’d look up his run differential or whatever you call it and probably discover that he’s responsible for giving up as many runs as he’s produced.

He’s gonna be plunked if he keeps it up.

Not that I’m rooting against Rosales - I’m just annoyed by the Pete Rosales mentality.

Repoz Posted: May 12, 2009 at 11:26 PM | 19 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralCincinnati

The Real McCoy: Kicking sand in the D-Backs’ faces

and other good stuff from the smoky corners of the plate.

And where are the Willy Taveras naysayers now? Yeah, I was guilty, too - afraid of last year’s low on-base percentage that this season keeps going up, up and up. He began Monday’s game at .355, then got on base five straight times, all on hits, and scored four runs. And now his on-base average is .381 - just what they want from a leadoff guy.

For those who are not fans of hitting coach Brook Jacoby, well, here is another case of him working clandestinely with a player outside the spotlight where nobody can see. Manager Dusty Baker said Jacoby has worked tirelessly with Taveras to get him to drive the ball instead of hitting fly balls and ground balls. And it is showing.

...Is there any other pitcher in baseball who is 5-2 with a 7.02 ERA. Those are Bronson Arroyo’s numbers, a guy who obviously knows on what day to pitch. Meanwhile, Aaron Harang has to be sitting in the dugout wondering, “Hey, guys, where are my runs?”

Four of Aroryo’s five wins are on the road and he shrugs as if mystified and says, “It has been a funn year for me up to this point. I have a high ERA but I have more wins at this point than I have at any time in my career, other than ‘06 (Boston). I’ll take what they give and I’ll take the wins if they want to keep giving them to me. I’ve had two of the four years here where I’ve been lights out up to this point and beedn 2-4. I’ll take wins all day long.”

Repoz Posted: May 12, 2009 at 09:00 AM | 10 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsArizonaCincinnati

Saturday, May 09, 2009

The Real McCoy: Arroyo opens up about Manny Ramirez

You better stop, it is the wrong ‘em Arroyo.

“At this point in his career and from what has gone on with testing and stuff since 2004, I’m surprised Manny got caught up in this,” he said. “Manny likes to act pretty stupid, but he is a pretty bright guy who is definitely aware of a lot of things. He tried to act like he is completely oblivious, but he isn’t.

...Reds manager Dusty Baker just shook his head and said, “Fifty days is a long time and that’s really going to hurt the Dodgers and it is going to hurt his reputation. I just hate it that another star goes down. We sure can’t afford to have any more heroes go down.”

Added Arroyo: “This is just affirmation over and over again that steroids and human performance drugs are rampant in the game. What are you going to do? People tend to think when we in baseball go home in the off-season, the Cincinnati Reds are watching us every day, watching us individually over what we do and what we put in our body and how we workout. Everybody has their own program and their own life and do their own things. And honestly, in the locker room, guys who are best friends have no idea what goes on in the other guys’ personal lives. By the time you get to this level, everybody has learned to hide what they don’t want people to know about.”

Scary. Very scary.

Repoz Posted: May 09, 2009 at 08:59 AM | 16 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralCincinnatiLA DodgersSteroids

Wednesday, May 06, 2009

MLB.com: Reds lose as Arroyo’s night ends early

Bronson Arroyo ALMOST matched the -1 game score Brian Tallet had earlier this year for Toronto.  However, if my calculations are correct, he just missed, and finished with a game score of zero.

Arroyo’s line: 1 IP, 7 H, 9 R, 2 HR, 0 SO, 3 BB

The Reds and starting pitcher Bronson Arroyo were jumped early and took a 15-3 loss to the Brewers Wednesday in the first game of a two-game series at Great American Ball Park.

After a 46-minute pregame rain delay, Arroyo tied his season high with nine earned runs allowed and tied his career’s shortest outing at one-plus innings. He gave up seven hits, three walks and two home runs while throwing only 46 pitches.
...
The first three Brewers batters reached base on Arroyo in the second inning before a 1-2 hanging breaking ball was launched by Ryan Braun over the center-field fence for a grand slam that ended Arroyo’s night.
...
With the Reds looking to save their bullpen, they moved shortstop Paul Janish to the mound for the top of the ninth as their fifth reliever.

NTNgod Posted: May 06, 2009 at 11:06 PM | 12 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralCincinnatiMilwaukeeGame Recaps

McCoy: Reds adhere to winning formula

Rite-Lok Threadlockeroom mania in Cincinnati!

On a hot muggy night in south Florida, the Cincinnati Reds displayed what manager Dusty Baker and general manager Walt Jocketty talked about all winter as the team’s driving mechanism.

It has nothing to do with a Big Red Machine and everything to do with a Little Red Wagon.

...Joey Votto was on base five times and Phillips drove him home twice, plus they walked Votto intentionally in front of Phillips before his home run.

“It makes you think when they walk a guy in front of you,” said Phillips. “I would have done that same thing, but I wanted to show them, ‘Don’t do that again, please.’ It opened up my eyes and I said, ‘Wow.’ “

Of Phillips big night, Baker said, “We’ve been waiting on Brandon and he’s been waiting on Brandon.”

Phillips knows that the way they won Tuesday is the way the team is supposed to win and said, “There is a reason this team is put together ther way it is. We have speed, defense and guys who can put the ball in play.”

Repoz Posted: May 06, 2009 at 04:57 PM | 15 comment(s) | Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralCincinnati

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