Jeff Sullivan: The Worst Team Ever Projected?

On the plus side for bbc chick, Kevin Bass is still very good looking.

There, at the very very bottom of the standings, are the Houston Astros. Okay, that’s not a big surprise. The Astros were baseball’s worst team in 2011. They didn’t then undergo a complete roster makeover. But their projected record - which is the average of several projected records - is 60-102. That’s 60 wins, and 102 losses.

The thing about projected standings is that they tend to miss the extremes. Standings are projected by running a hundred or a thousand individual projections and then averaging them out. By doing this, the records are kind of regressed to the mean. So when you see an extreme record, that’s pretty telling. And I think it’s fair to say that 60-102 is an extremely bad record…..

Out of all the projected records above, the worst is 60-102, belonging to the 2012 Houston Astros (CAIRO) and the 2009 Pittsburgh Pirates (ZiPS). And between those two teams, the 2009 Pittsburgh Pirates were projected to have the better Pythagorean record, based on runs scored and runs allowed.

These 2012 Houston Astros might be historically significant, in whatever way that projected baseball standings might be significant. And while it’s very possible, if not probable, that the Astros aren’t actually the worst team ever projected, that doesn’t change the fact that CAIRO just thinks they’re really gross. And CAIRO’s fair. CAIRO doesn’t hold grudges.

If you glance at the Astros’ depth chart, that they’re projected to be terrible makes a whole lot of sense. Squint and you can like a chunk of the rotation. The pitching staff as a unit isn’t a complete disaster. But I’d really prefer to just not talk about the position players. I like Jed Lowrie, but when you can make an argument that Jed Lowrie is the best position player on a team, you should be worried about that team.

The Book Blog: MGL: Today on Clubhouse Confidential

Everything we had hoped for from the MLB Network…save a cucking stool ride for Kevin Millar, of course.

Or as Ozzie Guillen tweeted about this fantastic slice…“all gm in baseball please give mitchel litchman a job or bench coach he is good hahaha wow.”

RLYW: CAIRO 2012 v0.5 and More Somewhat Useless Projected Standings

These look more realistic to me than the last set I ran with Marcel.  Probably a bit high on the Yankees, but since CAIRO was created to make the Yankees look better than they are that stands to reason.

Edes: ‘Think Factory’ projects falloff for Ellsbury

Hey, I must have missed the internal primer-list on this…because I never got a say!

Jacoby Ellsbury will see and hear a lot of this in the coming weeks, questions about whether he can duplicate his MVP-worthy performance in 2011.

Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory weighed in on the subject on ESPN Insider. Here are his thoughts:

2011 Projected OPS: .733
Actual OPS: .928

...Historically, when players have had these kinds of home run breakouts, their follow-up seasons have been a mixed bag. However, players have generally kept quite a bit of improvement from even the flukiest-looking home run totals. While Ellsbury might not hit 30 again, it’s extremely likely he’ll continue to hit more than the 10 he was hitting just a few years ago. ZiPS projects a decline to 16 home runs, but that’s with only 560 projected plate appearances—if Ellsbury gets 732 plate appearances, he should hit 20 again.

BPro: Wyers: Reintroducing PECOTA

Much like John Wathan…juggling PECOTA around.

PECOTA has arrived.

BP’s projection system, at its core, follows the same basic principles as it has before. We begin with our baseline projections, which start with a weighted average of past performance, with decreasing emphasis placed on seasons further removed from the season being projected. Then that performance is regressed to the mean. After that, we use the baseline forecast to find comparable players (while also taking into account things like position and body type) and use those to account for the effects of aging on performance.

Every season we put PECOTA under the knife, looking for things we can improve to make sure we’re coming up with the best forecasts possible. Sometimes what we come up with is a minor tweak. At other times, though, what we unearth is not only more significant, but an interesting baseball insight in its own right, even aside from its inclusion in PECOTA.

This season, we’ve made some rather radical changes to how we handle the weighted averages for the PECOTA baselines—we still deemphasize past seasons, but nowhere near as much as we used to. With such a dramatic and counterintuitive change, we thought it best to give our users an explanation of what was changed and why so that they could correctly use and interpret the PECOTA forecasts.

Olbermann: 40 Years Of Steve Carlton

Countup with Keith Olbermann ~ win #28…win #29…win #30.

It remains, in short, the most amazing season a pitcher has put together since at least Sandy Koufax, and very probably since long before him. And now, Steve Carlton’s 1972 campaign, when he won 27 of his rotten team’s 59 games, dates to 40 years ago.

So much has been written about Lefty’s work that it is amazing to consider that an extraordinarily relevant detail is usually omitted from the recounting – one that makes winning 46 percent of one team’s entire supply of victories all the more remarkable.

Steve Carlton did it in a strike-shortened season.

The first sport-wide in-season strike in American history would in later contexts seem so brief as to be almost quaint. But when Opening Day was pushed back by a week forty years ago, and each team lost between six and nine games, it was traumatic – and it contributed to the distinct possibility that Carlton missed an opportunity to win 30 games.

DuPaul: How much money has AJ Burnett cost the Yankees?

AJ cooked: Final destination - 2 years.

Burnett has played three seasons for New York, since they signed him to a monster 5-year/$82.5 million contract.  This deal is similar to some other contracts starting pitchers have received recently:

-Justin Verlander 5 years/$80 million

-Felix Hernandez 5 years/$78 million

-Jered Weaver 5 years/$85 million

-CJ Wilson 5 years/$77.5 million

...The Yankees have paid out $49.5 million thus far to Burnett for three seasons of service. Based on Linear dollars per fWAR, Burnett has been worth $28.2 million.  Thus, New York has incurred a net loss of the $21.3 million by having AJ on their payroll. They owe Burnett $16.5 million next season and in 2013; so they’ll continue losing money by having Burnett pitch in the Bronx.  Burnett would need to be worth a total of $54.3 million combined over the next two seasons, for the Yankees to break even on the signing.  In order to do this, AJ would only have to duplicate his ’08 season (18-10, 4.07 ERA, 231 K’s 5.5 fWAR) in 2012, and then duplicate his ’05 season (12-12, 3.44 ERA, 198 K’s, 5.1 fWAR) in 2013.  Shouldn’t be too hard, especially because the Yankees’ website currently lists Burnett outside their starting rotation.

Tigers’ Dombrowski confident in Fielder’s longevity

Just take Bill James’ findings, throw them down a steep ravine into a shallow grave covered with leaves…that won’t be found until a man walking his dog stumbles upon them.

The Tigers’ general manager spoke Tuesday as part of a Detroit Sports Broadcasters Association luncheon, expressing confidence new first baseman Prince Fielder can stay productive through most if not all of his expensive nine-year contract.

Detroit signed the hefty slugger to a $214 million deal last month. Dombrowski acknowledges the risk but points out that the hefty slugger is only 27.

“The prime of your career is what, through 32, 33?” Dombrowski said. “That’s seven of the nine years already, and my gut reaction is that this guy will continue to swing the bat. How his body will look in nine years or seven years, I really don’t know. He is a heavy-set guy but he’s also become more aware of trying to keep himself in the best shape he possibly can.”

...The Tigers acquired Fielder to help them try to defend their AL Central title after designated hitter Victor Martinez went down with a severe left knee injury. Fielder and Miguel Cabrera should form a potent middle of the batting order, but the move did create some complications. Detroit is set to shift Cabrera from first base to third to make room for Fielder.

“There’s very few guys that are Gold Glovers and are batting champions and All-Stars from an offensive perspective. They’re called Hall of Famers - and even some Hall of Famers have had some shortcomings of one area or another,” Dombrowski said. “We think Miguel will be adequate at third base from a defensive perspective. I don’t mean to say he’s going to be a Gold Glover. ... He’s got good hands, he’s got a strong arm, he wants to play there and he’ll work very hard at it.”

BASN: The MLB FRAUD - Oakland, Los Angeles, and New York

Straight from the riveting pages of The Beane Eaters comes…

The jig is up for Major League Baseball, just ask the cities of New York, New York, Los Angeles, and Oakland, California.

The con game is over and the cover is being lifted. MLB wants fans to attend games with minor league players on the field. MLB wants fans to buy their team’s products, and to watch inferior baseball.

The question should be asked, why do fans of the New York Metropolitans, the Oakland Athletics or the Los Angeles Dodgers support their teams?

It seems odd or a coincidence that these teams have a competitor across town to compete for the same fans. Teams that have owned or will own the city. The New York Yankees dominate the Big Apple, the San Francisco Giants own the Bay Area. With the new star first baseman and National League all star Albert Pujols joining the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. You can bet Southern California fans will be flocking to Orange County and leaving Chavez Ravine.

...What is troubling, other teams are now following the Money Ball method of running a baseball team. With Commissioner Bud Selig’s wishes. Baseball continues to slide down the American popularity poll.

...Baseball fans have to take it into their own hands and not attend games of the New York Mets, Oakland A’s, and Los Angeles Dodgers to make their message clear. Put a product on the field that can compete for a division title.

Matthews: Is Brett Gardner leadoff hitter or caboose?

New hot potato caboose that is.

Despite their difference in Wins Above Replacement—Jeter’s was 2.3, Gardner’s 5.1 according to FanGraphs, mostly because of his high defensive rating—Jeter was the winner of this WAR, and the discussion has hardly been raised this winter.

The Yankees’ best lineup last year seemed to be the one with Jeter leading off and Gardner hitting ninth.

And yet, there is a circumstance in which the Yankees might do better with Gardner batting first and Jeter second in 2012—when a right-hander is starting. In fact, that would probably cover close to two-thirds of the season.

The reason is that Gardner’s OBP versus righties the last two seasons is significantly higher than Jeter’s. In 2010 and 2011, Gardner’s OBP vs. righties was .383 and .345, respectively; Jeter’s was .316 and .329. And throughout his career, Jeter has been a slightly better hitter in the 2-hole, where for years he batted regularly. As a leadoff hitter, Jeter’s career BA and OBP are .309/.379; they are .314/.385 as a No. 2 hitter. Plus, Gardner’s speed should make it easier for him to steal against a right-handed pitcher.

Now, when a lefty is pitching, the numbers are reversed: Jeter’s OBP’s over the last two seasons (.391/.423) are better than Gardner’s (.373/.344).

So the answer seems pretty simple: Gardner leads off, Jeter bats second when a righty is starting; Jeter leads off, Gardner bats ninth when a lefty is starting.

Melewski: One vote against the possibility of bringing Manny Ramirez to the O’s

More Steve Barber ~ Less Haley Barbour!

Having said that, I don’t want him hitting for the Orioles.

Even if he shocks everyone and has a monster year in 2012 for someone, I don’t want to see that at Camden Yards. Ramirez has done way too much wrong in his career and, if Cal Ripken Jr. is a role model for kids, this guy is the opposite of that.

It starts with his current 50-game suspension for violating baseball’s drug policy, which was reduced from 100 games. I can’t get out of my mind the incident a few years ago where he allegedly pushed a much, much older Red Sox front office employee over a ticket dispute. He was arrested last September and charged with domestic battery.

That is way too many “issues” for me. I am not making this decision but it’s pretty clear where my vote would stand if I had one.

Plus, I watched the guy dog it many nights on the bases and in left field at Camden Yards only to see him hit a key homer later in the game to the adoring Red Sox Nation and for a club management which chose to overlook the former because he could deliver the latter. He was just Manny being Manny.

Let him be that somewhere that is not Baltimore in 2012.

Uchill: The math says count on Patriots victory: How football analytics predict the big game

I always figured my dancing with Madonna was the low point of her career, but after this Sunday…that might change.

Predicting 60 percent of games correctly is astoundingly high – gamblers need to win less than 53% of their games to make a profit. That is why analytics are so popular among bettors, said Elihu Feustel, professional gambler, one-time casino consultant and co-author of “Managing Risk: Attacking Vegas and Wall Street.”

Feustel, of South Bend, Ind., devotes multiple chapters of his book to betting on football. He does not, however, like football.

“I think it’s boring,” he said. He is still willing to make money off of it.

...Baseball may be better known than football for the use of analytics. The Oscar-nominated movie based on a best-selling book, “Moneyball,” traced the Oakland A’s road to success using advanced statistics , but no plans have been made for “Football Outsiders: The Movie.”  But football analytics have their own vibrant research community in universities across the country.

Vince Gerrano, executive director of the Sports Analytics institute at Manhattanville University in New York, said football analytics time has come.

“Baseball came first because it’s so much more difficult to analyze individual contribution from a player in football,” he said. “In football, there is so much interdependency.

Verducci: From games to gaming, Schilling on, well, pretty much everything

Sooo looking forward to his “Pantsload: Call of Doodie!” roll-plying action game!

Whether Roger Clemens, an early mentor to him, should be in the Hall of Fame: “No, he shouldn’t. I don’t believe any of those who cheated should get votes. You never know when they did and when they didn’t. I don’t know how much was real. That’s just me. I don’t think anybody who did it should get in.

“Wait, you said [for years] that you never did it? Now [you say] you did? It’s the Pete Rose defense. And you got caught the first time you did it? And how about when you [actually] started? That’s a whole other conversation. It’s just very black and white: They got caught doing it, they’re out. Unfortunately, some of my friends and teammates are on that list and it makes me disappointed they made that decision. It doesn’t make me like them less. Now, Barry Bonds? How can you even remotely consider that guy a nice guy?”

Giving steroid users a pass because not all users have been identified: “No. You can’t unlearn what you’ve learned.”

The advantages of steroids: “My biggest problem, and I’m so sick of hearing it from hitters or anybody else, is that steroids didn’t help you hit. That’s the most bald-faced lie ever. When I’m facing Barry Bonds Sept. 1 and Barry Bonds feels super fresh and I’m dragging ass, don’t tell me that. It was as much about being fresh and keeping your body fresh.

“Talk to [former NFL and MLB players] Deion Sanders and Brian Jordan. They’ll tell you the grind of a baseball is way harder [than football] because of the grind of the season. So yes, [a steroid regimen] did help you produce.”

The 2011 Red Sox: “It was clearly a group of kids that took a swift kick in the ass. What they did last year was embarrassing and shameful. I’m shocked that a good kid like Jon Lester got caught up in that. [Former manager] Terry [Francona] got fired for being the same guy he was years before that. I ran off at the mouth, but Terry will always tell you that I was as coachable as anybody. It was shocking that some people in this clubhouse allowed those stories to come out, but it was embarrassing, as if that wasn’t enough, that nobody had enough guts to stand up and say, ‘Enough!’”

HBT: Cartwright: Why Oliver Loves Yu

Great pitcher?  Or greatest pitcher?  Cartwright chooses (c) my projection engine messed up.

6.2 WAR, 2.57 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 16-4 W-L, 185 IP, 138 H,  8 HR, 41 BB, 198 K

It looks like Yu broke Oliver. That’s Yu Darvish; Oliver is the engine of The Hardball Times Forecasts. It’s not the first time it’s happened, but when a player so dominates his non-major league competition that that his derived major league true talent exceeds generally accepted norms, it offers an opportunity to examine the system and make some changes for the better.

ESPN: Mark Teixeira ... $180 million bunter?

Hell, just pull a couple of bunts.

In order to beat the shift, Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira claims he’s going to do the previously unfathomable: bunt.

“I’ve been so against it my entire career, but I might lay down a few bunts,” Teixeira conceded Tuesday night. “If I can beat the shift that way, that’s important. “
Teixeira hit just .191 this season as a left-handed hitter with no men on, according to Mark Simon from ESPN Stats & Info. So clearly, he’s going to have to make some changes.

It’s a decision Teixeira says he made on his own.

“Kevin [Long] and I made the decision of squaring myself up, and so when I’m open, I see the pull side a lot better, and that right field porch is just so enticing at Yankee Stadium,” Teixeira said. “I’m not going to complain about hitting 39 home runs, but I’d love to bring my [.248] average up, and it’s very simple, it’s left-handed singles.

MASN: Positionally, Werth is the center of attention

TARGET WERTH!

About the biggest uncertainty revolves around Jayson Werth - will he play center field or right field, and if it’s center, who’s in right?

Rizzo and manager Davey Johnson insist Werth is capable of manning center. They think he’s got sufficient speed to cover the gaps and there’s no doubt that he’s the kind of take-charge outfielder to can play traffic cop (in other words, none of that silliness where the center fielder allows himself to be called off a catchable ball, which has happened occasionally in the past). In his brief trial in center at the end of last season, Werth acquitted himself well, making good reads and taking good routes to the ball. He’s no stranger to center, having played the position in each of his nine major league seasons, but his 31 games and 233 1/3 innings at the position with the Phillies in 2008 were his career highs at the spot.

JAYS’ BAUTISTA NOT BOTHERED BY AMOUNT OF DRUG TESTS

Hell, I was once a sponsor for a tab-popping, nonpareil arm dotted friend of mine…and I was tired of the constant testing.

Bautista addressed his claim that he’s been tested by the league an above-average amount of times the past couple of years before talking about his team’s chances this upcoming season.

Bautista, who will be featured on the cover of the upcoming MLB 12 The Show, commented at a banquet in the Dominican Republic recently that he had been tested 16 times for performance enhancers over the past two years.

“(16) is an approximate number, and it’s hard to keep tabs,” Bautista said on TSN 1050. “It has increased in the last two years compared to before but I’m not complaining whatsoever. It’s a question that I was asked so I gave an honest answer. It’s not in my interest to make it seem like I’m getting picked on.”

The increase in drug tests is something that Bautista, who has led the league in home runs the past two years, said hasn’t and won’t change the way he goes about preparing and playing the game.

“I don’t mind it; it’s something that is not going to affect my focus and I’m not going to allow it to affect how I play my game,” Bautista said. “They are entitled to do whatever they want and test you as many times as they want. If I get picked to be tested a million times, that’s fine with me.”

MLB: Schlueter: Sabathia, Halladay pave road to 300 wins

Somebody said that it couldn’t be Edgar Albert Guesstimate.

When the most recent cluster of 300-game winners emerged in the first decade of the 21st century (Clemens in 2003, Maddux in ‘04, Glavine in ‘07 and Johnson in ‘09), each individual accomplishment was accompanied by truckloads of words prognosticating that baseball was witnessing the last pitchers to ever reach these heights; any number of variables—fewer starts per season, fewer innings per start, greater reliance on bullpens, the most recent offensive explosion—were cited to support this assertion. But such predictions are nothing new.

...For the 13 liveball-era 300-game winners, the roadmaps that retroactively detail the road to 300 wins are as varied as the personalities that drove the men to the milestone. There are great, young starts (Seaver and Maddux), explosions in baseball’s middle age (Grove or Spahn), the steady paces (Sutton, Glavine), and even the illogical bursts as the shadows lengthened (Niekro and Johnson).

The distance between where Sabathia and Halladay sit idling today and a 300th win remains daunting, and both pitchers will need to maintain their win rates, retain their healthiness, and hope for a fair amount of good fortune if they hope to join the club. But against the backdrop of the men who have crossed that rare finish line, these two current pitchers have at least already paved a road that gives them a chance.

Sabathia’s 176 wins through his age-30 season top the career totals of any of the 13 liveball era 300-game winners through that age-season. Halladay’s 188 wins through his age-34 season would rank him ninth among the 13 at that age.

RLYW: Too-Early Marcel 2012 Season Forecast

Crikey, such excitement in the NL West!

This is current through Francisco Cordero signing with Toronto, and assumes Prince Fielder at 1B and Miguel Cabrera playing a terrible version of 3B for Detroit in 70% of their games, and DHing in 25% of them.

MLB: Peter Gammons: Heyward hopes hard work is rewarded

The shoulder injury restricted Heyward’s swing. He couldn’t extend properly. He couldn’t go down and away against left-handed pitchers, thus in 104 at-bats against them last season, he batted .192 with two homers, seven RBIs and a .308 slugging percentage. Healthy, as a rookie, Heyward had batted .249 with a .356 on-base percentage and a .755 on-base plus slugging percentage against left-handers.

Because he couldn’t extend or generate his normal bat speed, Heyward got into the habit of starting too quickly and jumping, hence the overall drop from a .393 OBP as a rookie—which justified the buildup about his extraordinary plate discipline—to a .319 OBP in 2011.

Ryan Howard’s contract looks good to Amaro

Hell…Brill’s Content and Talk looked good to me at one point. So there’s that.

“I’m kind of happy,” Amaro said. “Really happy because if I would’ve had to put eight or nine years on Howard’s deal right now, that would be a little disconcerting. Right now we have Howard for the next five years. I kind of like that rather than giving an eight-, nine- or 10-year deal.”

...Amaro has been criticized for Howard’s contract - it’s worth $25 million per season compared to $24 million for Pujols and $23.7 million for Fielder - and that was before the first baseman tore his Achilles’ tendon making the final out in the team’s NLDS loss to St. Louis.

“He’s still, say what you want about Ryan Howard and how he stacks up against those guys, but there’s not too many people who over the last several years that have had this kind of production and he’s right there with those guys,” Amaro said.

...The numbers are comparable, though Howard ranks third in all but home runs. Amaro, however, said he doesn’t see the Big Piece on the downside of his career.

“I think that Ryan’s the kind of guy - this is one of the reasons we signed him to two long-term deals - even when we signed him to a multi-year deal he got himself in better shape than he’s ever gotten himself into,” Amaro said. “There’s always a fear that guys get complacent. That’s not what we’re going to get out of Ryan. I know Ryan. Ryan’s desire to be successful remains very high. I know there was no one more upset with the way things ended the last couple of years than he is. I think he’s going to be as productive a player as he has been in the past and even more so at times.”

Salisbury: Phillies sign speedster Juan Pierre

Woo-hoo! Gives him a shot at his 8th Caught Stealing title!

That’s why they signed veteran outfielder Juan Pierre, a three-time league stolen base champ, to a minor-league contract on Friday. Pierre will compete for a big-league job in spring training.

“Juan’s speed element is something we clearly do not have on our bench,” general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said. “There are no guarantees he’ll be on our club. He’ll have to earn it and be the right fit for our club. But he has a legitimate chance because of that speed element.”

Phillies officials have been looking to add some speed to their bench all winter. Even before Pierre, the team had signed veteran Scott Podsednik to a minor-league deal and invited him to big-league spring-training camp. Podsednik was the National League stolen base leader with 70 for Milwaukee in 2004, but he will turn 36 in March and has been plagued by foot problems in recent seasons. Pierre, 34, won two National League stolen base crowns and led the AL with 68 while playing for the White Sox in 2010. He had 27 for the Sox last season.

With Domonic Brown likely headed for more development time in Triple A, Pierre and Podsednik will create a little spring drama by competing for the fifth outfielder’s job.

“They’ll be battling,” Amaro said.

Aiken Standard: Smoltz is Hall of Fame worthy

The back of a John Smoltz baseball card looks like a database on the fritz.

“Nobody really understands,” the former Atlanta Braves pitcher said by phone from his Alpharetta, Ga., home when asked about the unique difficulty of transitioning mid-career from starter to reliever and back again to starter.

“It really was very difficult,” Smoltz said. “I had to learn about being a closer on the job.”

...Smoltz says the Hall of Fame is no big deal.

“It doesn’t bother me,” said Smoltz, who becomes Hall of Fame-eligible in 2015. “People talk to me about that all the time, but I’m not consumed by it. My answer matches the way that I approach life: If it happens, great, and if it doesn’t, it’s not going to change me.”

...Perhaps the best case for Smoltz is that if he messed with his Hall of Fame chances by switching from starter to reliever to starter, he didn’t think about it at the time.

“Nothing I did was based on personal statistics,” Smoltz said. “I wanted to win. I wanted to win probably worse than anybody in the history of the game, and that’s all that mattered to me.”

Oh yeah, if he wanted the Braves to win so freakin’ badly…why did he become a closer?!

Mariners may move Ichiro from leadoff spot

For 11 seasons, Ichiro Suzuki has been the Mariners’ leadoff hitter. In his 1,749 major-league games, there have been just a few dozen in which Ichiro wasn’t the first player in the Seattle lineup.

That may change this coming season. In fact, if Manager Eric Wedge can find the right batting combination, there’s a “good possibility” Ichiro will be batting somewhere else in the lineup, he told 710 ESPN Seattle radio on Wednesday evening.

“If you had to put a gun to my head right now, I’d probably be leaning in that direction, but I’m not going to just close myself off until Spring Training,” Wedge told the radio station.

So, who else might lead off for the Mariners? Maybe Dustin Ackley. Maybe Franklin Gutierrez. Maybe even Chone Figgins — if he can remember what a baseball bat is.

...Whoever gets the leadoff spot, Wedge know what he wants to see.

“I want him to get on base, I want him to see pitches, I want him to help the number-two-hole hitter, the number-three-hole hitter, the four-hole hitter,” Wedge told ESPN Seattle radio during Wednesday evening’s Sports Star of the Year awards banquet at Benaroya Hall.

“So we’ll see. Ichiro is very unique, but I’ve been very frank with him and very clear in regard to what I’m looking to do, so we’ll see.”

Thanks to Tonnage.

Don Malcolm: JACK-KNIFE: THE LAST TWIST…

No, it’s not the final Jack Palance dancing scene from The Big Knife...it’s about The Jack Morris!

Now of course there is not a single BBWAA writer who knows these stats and how they relate to Jack Morris. What they know is that Morris had a late kick in 1991-92 (which is just about the last point in time that remains reasonably within memory for many BBWAA members) and that he was a big winner for two consecutive World Champs in those years. This has obliterated the fact that Jack was seriously subpar from 1988-90.

The strange thing, in fact, is that when we break out Jack’s career, it’s clear that he’s really more of a “peak” candidate than anything else. Combining together Jack’s twelve best years in terms of won-loss record (not saying that this is what should be done, mind you, but doing it anyway…), he has a 204-123 record. That works out to a .623 WPCT. The remainder of Jack’s career is exceptionally bad (50-63, 4.59 ERA), but, as Jonathan Bernhardt—doing his damnedest to occupy the rhetorical space of Chris(tina) Kahrl circa 1999—so slitheringly put it: Morris is a winner.

The BBWAA voters probably have no idea that Morris parlayed good fortune in mediocrity to such a tidy little WPCT, but they are as subliminal a bunch as their “disloyal opposition” is not: they don’t have to quantify, cauterize, conspire, or even Midasize in order to have a bone twinge about Jack. (Not that some of these folk aren’t simply bandwagoning to get the collective goat of the numbers guys: that’s part of the latest “surge”—another word, like “metrics,” etc., that’s been defaced by the special mud that is meant for major league baseballs but is currently ricocheting into the eyes of the disenfranchised.)

Please understand that none of the above is meant as an endorsement for Jack’s candidacy. It simply shows the components that are located “underneath the narrative” that so many post-neo folk have given a semiological credence via their arch articulation. It’s our theory that the components took awhile to coalesce beyond the subdural level, and that the scratch’n'claw tactics of the disloyal opposition unleashed a virus, which in this case operates more like the toxic agent found in poison ivy.

Matthews: What can we expect from A-Rod?

Still, both Long and GM Brian Cashman acknowledge that this version of A-Rod, who will turn 37 in July, is very much an unknown quantity.

“When he’s healthy, he’s always produced,’’ said Cashman, who when pressed for a prediction on Rodriguez’s final 2012 numbers, admitted, “I have no idea.’‘

(Kevin) Long, too, tempered his enthusiasm for A-Rod’s upcoming season with the caveat, “If he’s healthy ... ‘’

As in, if he’s healthy “I think 30-40 home runs is realistic.’‘

Rodriguez, of course, has not hit more than 30 home runs since 2008, when he hit 35. He followed that with two 30-home run seasons before bottoming out at 16 last year. But his run production has remained strong—his 125 ribbies in 2010 was his 13th consecutive 100+ RBI season—although his slugging percentage has plummeted from a high of .645 in his last MVP season (2007) to .461 in 2011.

And according to the projections of Dan Szymborksi of ZiPs Projections, and Bill James, A-Rod won’t make it to 30 this year, either. Szymborski has A-Rod playing just 108 games, with 21 HRs, 82 RBIs and a .264 BA. James is a bit more optimistic: he sees A-Rod finishing .277/29/86 in 134 games.

I don’t care how Wallace Matthews sez it…I get a kick out of him now using Dan’s ZiPs.

New Cubs pitching coach old-school

Welcome to The Bosio Super Wednesday Show!

Yes, Bosio and his pitchers will rely on advance scouts and some computer printouts for tendencies, but, he says, the strategy “is going to be more focused on how do we get them out. Let’s not worry about (what batters hit) on certain counts.

“Don’t write me a book,” he said at the Cubs Convention. “If you want to write a book, stick it in the mail and give it to someone who cares. Just give me some good information on how I can get this guy out. That’s probably in a nutshell what we’re trying to do.”

Then he is a believer in using certain pitches to get batters out?

“Either that or throw at his (helmet) ear hole,” Bosio said with a laugh. “We’re going to do our share of that. I’m an old-school guy. … There’s a way to do it and do it the right way. I know we’re on the same page, Theo and the coaching staff. It’s not rocket science, it’s just old-school baseball.”

...When he talks about “inside,” Bosio will be referring to location he wants pitchers to throw, not on some bit of inside information gleaned from a computer.

“We’re going to (do) our share inside,” he said. “We’re going to play a good, hard old-fashioned baseball with fundamental stuff. And try to minimize our walks and mistakes. If we do that, we’ll win our share of games.”

Henning: Tigers’ grab at Prince Fielder could be boom, then bust

Henning: Illusion and Reality…

This contract has a chance to go bad deeper into Fielder’s tenure. Fielder is 27 and carries way too much weight. He also carries a 50-home-run bat. The Tigers were investing in Fielder and his probable span of explosive, middle-of-the-order power, and forget about the other stuff. For now, anyway.

The front office understands what Ilitch also recognizes and is willing to accept. There could be a whopping parting check handed Fielder as he slides into his 30s. Again, that’s part of an owner’s calculation. If you’re rich enough to own the Tigers, you’re well-heeled enough to buy out a bad contract should it evolve into such deep into Fielder’s tenure.

There are going to be some ugly games the Tigers believe they can win by out-slugging opponents who also play defense.

Fielder at first. Cabrera at third. Young presumably will work his share of time in left field. Raburn will play a good deal of second base. Peralta is sure-handed and has the most automatic arm of any shortstop in baseball. But range isn’t his strong suit.

The Tigers have their share of groundball pitchers, with Doug Fister and Rick Porcello leading the group. Infield defense is important. Infield defense will at times create Fright Night at Comerica Park.

TFT: Mitchell: Darrell Evans, Tony Perez and Why the Hall of Fame Matters

BTW…Updating my BBWAA “promised” ballot collecting gizmo.

After going through 107 ballots (18.7%)

30 - WILL vote for Bonds/Clemens (5.2%...enough already to stay on ballot!)

44 - WILL NOT vote for Bonds/Clemens

33 - UNDECIDED (on their part or mine)

Darrell Evans was almost an exact contemporary of Tony Perez, as the two players careers overlapped from 1969-1986.  Evans, one of the most underrated players in the game’s history, may or may not have been better than Perez.  Evans’ slash numbers were similar .248./.341/.431 for an OPS+ of 119.  Evans came to bat about 150 times fewer than Perez and, significantly for Hall of Fame voters, had about 200 fewer RBIs, while hitting 35 more home runs.  However, Evans spent his prime playing for some offensively challenged Brave and Giant teams while Perez spent his prime batting in the middle of the Big Red Machine.  Evans was a more valuable defender as a third baseman who played a little at first, while Perez did the reverse.  Baseball Reference awards Evans 6.8 more WAR than Perez while Fan Graphs gives them both the same amount of WAR.

...Fans of Darrell Evans can, presumably, understand that there man is not quite worthy of the Hall of Fame, but the election of Tony Perez makes it harder to stomach.  Replace Evans and Perez with Dennis Martinez and Jack Morris, who is likely to get elected next year, or Tim Raines and Jim Rice, and the reason the Hall of Fame matters should be even more clear.

Kahrl: Will Jose Iglesias be the new Rey Ordonez?

Up The Sandbox Defense! (bust flop of the year?)

Something approaching normalcy from those hitters would make Iglesias that much more palatable if Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine—the man who managed Ordonez over the bulk of his “productive” career with the Mets—takes a shine to Iglesias in camp.

In the meantime, Boston’s fall-back options are fairly reasonable. Like Scutaro, Punto is neither the best or worst defender at short. The difference in their career OBPs (.338 vs. .325) is narrow enough to suggest there won’t be any drop-off with a change to the identity of the ninth-slot hitter in Boston’s lineup, and Punto actually has a higher walk rate for his career (10.2 percent to Scooter’s 9.1). That’s without getting into why Aviles might have been the best right-now option of the three. After getting jerked around by the Royals ever since coming back from the Tommy John surgery that put a dent in his future in 2009, he still profiles as a good bat and playable glove at short.

But it’s Iglesias who represents the team’s long-term future at short. And it’s Rey Ordonez’s old manager who will be helping to decide whether or not he can use the latest slick-fielding Cuban kid at short, sooner or later.