It Might Be Dangerous…: DePodesta: Power, Speed and Defense

Conclusion - speed can enhance defensive ability, but speed does not equal good defense.

My guess is that some of you are saying, “But speed can also impact other parts of the game, like batting average and doubles.” You’re absolutely right. However, in an earlier posting we established that Petco Park isn’t batting average friendly. Furthermore, the Park is as tough on doubles as it has been on home runs. The fact of the matter is that despite the dimensions of the ballpark, fly balls go to die in Petco, which is also why defense in CF may not be quite as important as it would initially appear. I guess we can blame the perfect weather in San Diego.

We, as an organization, do not turn a blind eye to speed and athleticism. We like it. When I was in Oakland Billy Beane always used to say, “I have nothing against stealing bases. I love stealing bases as long as we’re safe.” In a perfect world all of the Padres players would have power, speed, and defensive ability. Unfortunately, there is no perfect player out there, so we need to make choices and attempt to balance the team such that it is competitive in every important area (we were in the top five in the NL in defensive efficiency in both 2006 and 2007 despite a lack of team speed).

Thanks to Rettenmondo Trasho.

Posnanski: Night and Day, You Are The One

So, I asked Banny about this (through the magic of phone texting*) … his answer in a moment. First a quick look at the whole question of day-night splits … I have always been led to believe that it’s easier for hitters in the daytime. I think that’s just something as baseball fans you grow up believing. Well, it only makes sense. You would expect the light to be better.

But, as Bill James often asks: Is it true? Do hitters have more success in the daytime.

And as Bill James often finds out: No. It’s not true....

To Banny. I texted him the question: So what’s the deal with the day-night split? He texted me the sort of answer that, once again, explains why he’s the coolest guy in the game:

“The hitters tell me my fastball looks faster when they’re still a little hungover.”

N.Y. Sun: Normandin: Adjustments Could Give Tribe Vicious Troika of Arms

Carmona not grew?

The data gives you the idea that Carmona is, to a degree, intentionally throwing the ball out of the zone. He has increased his sinking fastball usage to 82% from an already lofty 75%, and with this rise in sinkers has come a rise in G/F ratio. According to Pitch f/x, Carmona has given up just nine extra-base hits on the season. The opposition’s Isolated Power — a figure derived from subtracting batting average from slugging percentage — is just .063 against Carmona, a number that makes even Dodgers speedster Juan Pierre look like a middle-of-the-order bruiser by comparison in the abstract. The data shows that Carmona loves to go high with his sinker; when hitters bite, they get on top of it and hit a grounder, or they just let it go for a ball.

This has been the key to Carmona’s success, and to his credit, it has worked. The problem is that with viewings of game tape and data such as that of Pitch f/x, it is not the kind of success that is guaranteed to work long-term. Like his teammate before him, Carmona should get to a stage where he needs to mix up his pitches more, or see his production drop precipitously — as his QERA suggests. Cleveland’s pennant chances rest on the production of this pair of quality arms. But perhaps, like Sabathia, Carmona’s issues will only be fixed once he’s deemed broken.

TSN: Pinto: A’s, Marlins beat expectations in different ways

All that...and why Burke Badenhop never starred in a 50’s jalopy flick and much, much more!

These two organizations demonstrate two extreme ways to build a team. Oakland ranks fourth in the American League in OBP, tied for 12th in slugging percentage. Florida ranks first in the majors in slugging percentage, eighth in the National League in OBP. Bill James’s Runs Created formula boils down to (Times on Base) * (Total Bases) / (Plate Appearances), which explains why both of these offenses work. To maintain the same run level with fewer times on base, the team needs to generate extra base hits (the Marlins). Likewise, teams can balance a decrease in total bases by putting more men on base with walks (the Athletics).

Both these teams face a problem as the season progresses. With one-dimensional offenses, these squads can be shut down by attacking that one strength. A pitching staff that keeps the ball in the park should give the Marlins trouble. The Dodgers held the Marlins to two home runs in their three games, and Florida only managed 10 runs. A pitcher who throws strikes removes walks from the A’s times on base, reducing them to a team with a poor batting average. Paul Byrd pitched 7-1/3 scoreless innings against the Athletics Tuesday night, allowing no walks and just five hits.

The Baseball Analysts: Dial: Just How Good Is Chipper Jones?

Now DH’ing...our own Chris Dial.

Chipper Jones is a great third baseman. He’s always been a top tier hitter and a solid fielder. While Chipper’s prowess with the bat is never questioned, his rank among great third basemen has. The problem is traditional metrics have shown Chipper to be a poor fielder. His Range Factor (Assists plus putouts per game) has routinely been below league norms. In the face of a significant groundball pitching staff with Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, and lots of left-handed pitcher innings, Chipper “should” have seen many more chances than league average. To be converting fewer outs than league average could only mean he is a poor defensive third baseman. Chipper being moved off third base in 2002 to a weak fielder position in left field demonstrated that even the Braves recognized Chipper’s shortcomings.

Traditional metrics are wrong. Chipper’s defensive play is one of the most misunderstood performances in baseball. Chipper’s defense has been below average exactly twice in his thirteen-year career. He’s averaged about +4 defensive runs per season. For his career, he’s about 50 runs above average defensively.

What does this have to do with Ken Griffey? Griffey is going to be considered one of the greatest centerfielders ever to play. He’s going to be mentioned alongside Mantle, Mays, Cobb, Speaker. Chipper may or may not end up being mentioned alongside Schmidt, Mathews and Brett. He could end up being mentioned with Brooks Robinson and Pie Traynor, or worse, Ron Santo.

THT: Studeman: Ten things I didn’t know last week

Lotsa good stuff from Studes...including the Michael Schell Database.

So, how do Rice and Belle compare? Here is a reprint of the results you’ll find in our database; the stats represent a “seasonal line” for each batter, based on playing in a neutral park between 1977 and 1992 (the most stable era in baseball history, according to Schell). The stats also reflect each player’s longevity.

Player       POS  Runs   HR  RBI   SB   BA  OBP  SLG  CBR Rank
Albert Belle OF     74   27   94   12 .286 .356 .522 23.5  126
Jim    Rice  OF     73   22   83    9 .288 .345 .475 20.9  216

“CBR” stands for “Career Batter Rating,” and it represents the number of runs above average that a player would have generated—similar to Linear Weights and Batting Runs. The player’s rank is based on CBR, adjusted for position.

Belle has the better ranking, and by a decent margin. The two have similar batting averages, but Belle is 10 points better in OBP and almost 50 points better in SLG. On Schell’s list, Belle is sandwiched between Wally Berger and Ken Singleton. Rice is lower, between Sammy Sosa and second baseman/outfielder Danny Murphy.

The Daily Bruin: Statistics shed light on baseball’s performance

Well...glad to see UCLA teaches more than just Fundamentals of Ho-Dadaism: Nu-Wave Art 101.

A deeper look at the team’s statistics can provide insight and identify the root of the Bruins’ subpar performance this season.

The team’s overall batting average on balls in play, which is a statistic that measures a player’s batting average based on the number of balls put in play without counting strikeouts, sacrifice flies or home runs, is .333. This means that, compared to the team’s overall batting average of .272, the number of balls put into play that are falling for hits is high for the Bruins.

A high average of this kind is usually an indicator of luck and porous opposing team defense. The Bruins’ figure of .333 is actually lower than the average .348 of all the other Pac-10 teams, suggesting that perhaps the Bruins are running into a bit of tough luck when facing opposing defenses.

However, the difference between UCLA’s balls in play average and batting average, .061, which is higher than the .045 difference among the conference, could also mean that the Bruins just aren’t making contact with the ball as well as other teams.

Vegas Watch: What Are The Odds: 30 Wins

I remember back in ‘73 when Wilbur Wood had 18 wins a week or so before the All-Star (which he didn’t make) break...and ended up a ditzy 24-20.

Brandon Webb is off to another great start- 8-0, with a 2.41 ERA. His insane ground ball rate (63.2%) has allowed him to give up only 2 homers over 56 innings.

On the surface, this is very similar to 2006, when he started off 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA. In terms of his chances of winning some ridiculous number of games though, two things are different this year.

The first is that this year he’s gone 8-0 in 8 starts, while two years ago it took him 11 to reach that mark. This means, assuming he makes 34 starts, he’s “on pace” to go 34-0, rather than 25-0. More relevantly, he has 8 wins with 26 starts left, rather than with 23.

...An 89% chance to win 20 games is pretty nuts. Before the season started, he had about a 45% chance of winning 20 games, so the 8-0 start really helped.

25 games is also a realistic possibility, which should come as no surprise. 30 is noticeably less so. If he gets decisions in 85% of his starts, we’d expect him to get 22 more decisions- to get 22 more wins would be pretty incredible. It is possible, though.

Stat of the Week: Dewan: Who are baseball’s top defenders so far this year?

Top Defenders?...Well, since E.G. Marshall and Robert Reed are both dushing up paisies...I guess this will have to do.

Based on the Plus/Minus System from The Fielding Bible, here are this year’s leading defenders by position in Major League Baseball:

First Base  Daric Barton, Oak   +8  
Second Base  Mark Ellis, Oak  +8 -- Chase Utley, Phi  +8  
Third Base  Troy Glaus, StL +12  
Shortstop  Orlando Cabrera, CWS  +9  
Left Field  Matt Holliday, Col  +8  
Center Field  Carlos Gomez, Min  +5 
Right Field  Alex Rios, Tor  +3 -- Bobby Abreu, NYY  +3 -- Jeremy Hermida, Fla  +3

Former catcher Daric Barton has done well so far at first base. Chase Utley wants to take over Albert Pujols’ mantle as the best hitter in baseball and best fielder at his position as well.

The injuries that plagued Troy Glaus are no longer an issue for him defensively. The loss of Torii Hunter hasn’t hurt Minnesota with Carlos Gomez’ stellar play so far.

WSJ: Bialik: A Pair of Lucky Baseball Fans

The latest problem from The Numbers Guy…

Last Wednesday in the fifth inning at a lopsided Mets-Dodgers game in Los Angeles, the winners of a James Loney-John Maine matchup were sitting in the stands. With the Dodgers trailing, 11-0, Mr. Loney fouled off five pitches before hitting a relatively meaningless double. Two of those foul balls, though, were caught by glove-less friends Glen Walker and Joe Castro, who were sitting in adjacent seats at field level between third base and home.

“By the game’s end, the pair were clutching their baseballs and trying to calculate the odds of back-to-back fouls landing side-by-side in the stands,” the Los Angeles Times reported. ” ” ‘It’s got to be one in 10 million,’ decided Castro. ‘It has to be millions to one,’ said Walker, who is a reporter and news anchor at television stations KCBS-2 and KCAL-9.”

Not content with their ballpark estimates, the Times reporter consulted with USC mathematician Kenneth Alexander, who calculated that the probability of a pair of adjacent fans catching foul balls in a single game was about one in 10,000. “He cautioned, however, that his specialty is probability theory in mathematical physics,” the Times wrote. “With Wednesday’s 12-1 loss to the Mets, the Dodgers are probably wishing mathematical physics could tell them the probability that they’ll soon regain their momentum.”

I’ll skip over the dubious notion of momentum in sports and stick with the foul-ball probability, which is itself rather hard to estimate. A proper calculation would account for the distribution of foul balls in the stands, and the particular batter-pitcher matchup.

MGL: If I worked for a team and was allowed to do whatever I wanted (and they actually listened)….

Just think of the light-hearted press conferences!

1) Tell the manager to throw away his batter/pitcher index cards, or book, or whatever it is that they use, and never look at another batter/pitcher historical result again.  I’ll get to the alternative in a minute.

2) Do the same for any other small sample size of historical performance.  For example, don’t ever look at how a batter is doing lately, either yours or the opponents’.  That should have no bearing on any of your decisions.

3) Never spend another minute worrying about the best lineup.  Use a set lineup against RHP and LHP and leave it alone unless you change players or someone is injured.

4) Along those lines (#3), I will give the manager the 2 or 3 best lineups to use against RH and LH pitchers.  I can even tweak those for GB and FB pitchers (remember that there is a significant GB/FB platoon advantage - it is just that it doesn’t come up very often).

5) Along the lines of #2, I will give the manager a book or index cards of each batter/pitcher matchup.  It is comprised of the batter’s current projection, adjusted for the park (maybe) and the pitcher’s current projection (again, maybe adjusted for park), combined using each player’s platoon ratio and a log5 method.  I might give him several versions:  one for in general, another for when he needs a K, another for when he wants to avoid a BB, another for when he wants to avoid a HR or extra base hit, etc.  I would also have two numbers:  one for when the batter is already in the game and has seen the pitcher several times, and another one for when the batter is a pinch hitter (includes the pinch hitter penalty).  That way, the manager, if he wants to compare the batter in the lineup with a potential pinch hitter, all he has to do is to compare the two players applicable “matchup” projection.  I would also have a column of each player’s projection (displayed in some manner that the manager can easily understand, like EQA or wOBA) versus a RH and LH opponent.  That way, for example, he can decide between two or more players he is considering bringing in as a pinch hitter or reliever, given the likely opponent or opponents’ handedness.

Ike’s Baseball Blog: PITCHf/x summit

Out-geeking all other Saber-geeks!...A look inside the 1st Annual PITCHf/x Summit.

The purpose of my visit was to attend the 1st Annual PITCHf/x Summit, an event where sabermetricians, Sportvision, MLBAM, and team reps gathered to discuss the uses of this great new data set, and potential future data sets. I gave a talk largely centered around my previous post on corrections, and how measurements of C_d can be an indicator of data quality and a quantity from which we might be able to derive corrections, perhaps even on a game-to-game basis. I was really impressed with the willingness of Sportvision to discuss every aspect and gave us the chance to see it in action, which was really key for me in understanding how things work.

...HITf/x, a potential new system to track batted ball trajectories was also discussed, at great length. This would be another giant leap forward in available quantitative baseball data. Being a former pitcher, I’m philosophically less interested in such a system as I am in pitched ball trajectories, but as a physicist, it is highly intriguing. Having such a system as a compliment to PITCHf/x would be an enormous boon to the field of Sabermetrics.

Thanks to Rob Neyer

BPro: Burke and Sheehan: Chillin’ in the American League

A look at why the NL is outscoring the AL and even more chasmous...the massivo disparity between truth and Buster Olney!

Speculation inside the game, as Buster Olney referenced in his blog Saturday, centers on the theoretical eradication of performance-enhancing drugs from the game in the wake of the Mitchell Report. Personally, I dismiss this out of hand. Since 2003, when survey testing kicked off a series of regimes and punishment mechanisms, offensive levels, and specifically power, have jumped around from year to year independent of what rules were in place. There has been no correlation between increated testing and greater penalties, and offensive levels and power, over the five-year period.

This makes sense when you think about it. Both from the players who have been suspended for failing tests and the ones named in the Mitchell Report, we learned that PED use was not something confined to power hitters, nor even hitters. Even if PED use has been affected by the rules changes, there’s little reason to think that it would show itself in lowered offense.

The biggest reason to dismiss this claim, though, is the league split. Runs per game, slugging, and XBH/FB are all up in the National League, whose players are subject to the same testing program as the ones in the AL. To assert that the overall falloff is due to the Mitchell Report and the impact of PED testing is to imply that all the juicers were American League hitters. That doesn’t strain credulity; it causes credulity to laugh at you, smack you upside the head, and go find your best friend to smack him, too. The one explanation that I can safely rule out is some kind of Mitchell Report/testing effect.

BPro: Seidman: Furcal En Fuego

Or Furcaliente…

Furcalysis

Furcal has missed the last several games with back spasms, and it comes as no surprise that the Dodgers have gone 1-4 in that span. Though Furcal’s absence cannot be directly linked to the team’s recent struggles, he has been one of the top offensive players in the league, let alone his own team. He should be back in the lineup soon, and it will be very interesting to see if his injury lingers throughout the season or has any sort of effect on his production. His offensive output may suffer from the time off as well, as a hot streak likely to regress as the season goes on may do so more quickly when it’s being resumed by a player iced by injury and/or inactivity.

Though everything still suffers from small sample size syndrome, it is definitely clear Furcal has been able to hit pitchers of all qualities and all handedness; he has also been able to produce whether ahead or behind in the count, and against any type of pitch. This may not last all year, but Furcal is currently in the midst of arguably the best stretch of his career. If the Dodgers want to be serious about contending this year, Raffy will need to be back on the field and continue to produce at an All-Star level, even if that level is slightly worse than the torrid MVP-worthy level he’s produced in the early going.

Pizza Cutter: On the 100 pitch limit

As the game wears on, every ten pitches seems to tip the OBP balance toward the batter by about a point or .1%.  At some point, there comes a time where there is a more effective option in the bullpen.

That goes with a couple points of SLG. The absolute level of his numbers is a little weird, but the conclusion is clear.

THT: Is Clayton Kershaw Worth the Hype?

Breaking down the mechanics, injury risk, stuff, and numbers of Clayton Kershaw…

“Clayton Kershaw’s curveball scares children”

“Clayton Kershaw’s curveball is public enemy number one”

“Clayton Kershaw is straight filth”

Just a couple of the high heaps of praise that surround Dodgers pitching prospect Clayton Kershaw, known by many to be the best pitching prospect in all of baseball.

I suppose one is worthy of such praise when his curveball looks like this…

Vegas Watch: What Are The Odds: Chipper’s Quest For .400

Well, since Newsboy Moriarty is no longer with us...VW has the answers. (BTW...Chipper 3-3 hoy, hoy, hoy!)

Ideally, he’d like to get exactly 502 PAs, which is the minimum required to qualify for the batting title. If he did that, his odds would be 1 in 225. As those PAs go up, it gets very unlikely, very quickly. Weighting the 618 PA scenario as 40%, and the other three as 10%, 30%, and 20%, respectively, we come to odds of 1 in 546.

If he keeps this up (unlikely), some enterprising gambling site will probably offer odds on whether he’ll hit .400. I’ll be interested to see what they are, although I’m sure they’ll be absolutely terrible. If they were listed now, I think they’d probably be along the lines of 50:1, maybe even 25:1.

I think this is because it’s a rate stat, rather than a counting stat. What I mean is that he’s hitting .400 now, so at first glance it seems at least somewhat likely that he’ll keep it up. Contrast this with a guy who gets off to a hot start (20 HRs) hitting 70 HRs- he’s still got a long way to go. For a guy hitting .400 with 20 HRs at this point in the season, even if it’s more likely that he hits 70 HRs, it’ll seem more likely, to the average person, that he’ll hit .400, since he “just” has to keep up his pace, rather than more than triple his HR total.

The ideal candidate would walk a ridiculous amount. In 2004, Bonds had 617 PAs, so he easily qualified for the batting title, but only 373 ABs. He probably had a better chance of hitting .400 that year than anyone else in recent memory- he ended up at .362.

StatSpeak World Famous Roundtable: May 12

With Dave Cameron, Eric Seidman, R.J. Anderson, Pizza Cutter and Eddie Bane (Hey, you...off the stage!)

Question #4: A journalism student at a prominent college recently told me that he had an interview for a writing internship at MLB.com.  The interview promptly ended, however, when he expressed his goal was for mainstream baseball writing to incorporate more analytical tools than just calling someone clutch, saying David Eckstein is a hard-nosed player, and grilling someone with small sample sizes.  Of course those reading MLB.com or newspapers aren’t necessarily going to grasp all sabermetrics concepts, but analytical writing excluding the aforementioned issues does not entirely lean towards statistics.  What does this tell you about the goals of mainstream writing?

Pizza Cutter: I made a New Year’s resolution that I wouldn’t see this type of thing as a grand conspiracy to keep Sabermetrics away from people.  Surely, someone could write stories/content/posts with plenty of Sabermetric wisdom and have it be aimed at a non-math-major audience.

Consider the stir that was caused when Brian Bannister came out as a Sabermetrician this winter or when Moneyball was published.  The people within any structure, including baseball, have a tendency to defend the structure as it is.  Part of that is keeping out any ideas that might force the structure to change, whether or not that would be for the better.  This sounds like one of those instances.  But, of course, Sabermetrics has managed to infiltrate the establishment a little bit… and this next line has to be read in a dramatic whisper… we will not be ignored!  Sabermetricians of the world, unite!

DePodesta: It Might Be Dangerous… You Go First

Plaschke was right!

I began thinking about hosting a blog about a year ago, and back in January I took the first big step by starting an internal blog for employees of the Padres. The idea all along was to someday create an external blog to engage in a direct dialogue with our fans. Well, given the events of the past few weeks, that “someday” is now.

...Nevertheless, hopefully you’ll find it useful to have some unfiltered access to our internal conversations and feelings. We’ll have to figure out the rules as we go since I won’t be able to share everything, but I think it’s important to open this avenue right now.

So, I’m here, and I’d like to be a part of the conversation. I’ll do my best to reply to comments/questions, though I can’t promise punctual responses or regular posts. After all, just like everyone else out there, I already have a job. :-)

Hit me with whatever you have and let’s get out of this slump together.

Thanks to Can’t Stop the Bleeding.

N.Y. Times: Silver: For Griffey, the Roads Not Taken (RR)

The latest Keeping Score...as Nate Silver Pecotarates Griffey.

¶His career could have ended like Dawson’s, with a long and somewhat graceful decline, his skills diminishing by a tiny fraction each year, but with a big season or two along the way. Our system estimates that had Griffey followed the Dawson path (but adjusting for the friendly conditions of Griffey’s home ballpark), he would have finished with 725 homers.

¶It could have ended like Maris’s — not just slowed, but completely undermined by injury. Maris, a far better-rounded player at his peak than is remembered today, hit just 35 home runs after turning 30. Had Griffey followed the Maris path, he would have finished with 448 home runs.

¶Or it could have ended like Aaron’s, with Griffey indeed maintaining a 40- or 50-homer pace into his late 30s, and shattering all records along the way. Our system estimates that, had he followed the Aaron path, Griffey would have ended his career with 904 home runs.

Instead, Griffey has staked out his own path, somewhere between the Dawson and Maris trajectories. Aaron he will not be, but precisely what made Aaron such a special player is that he sustained his core abilities past a point when nearly every other players’ decline.

When we ask Pecota to project what is left of Griffey’s career based on his current level of ability, we have him finishing with 660 homers — the same total as Mays.

That outcome could be regarded as a disappointment only by someone with no sense for baseball’s history.

How much does Rollins mean to this team?

Just got back upstairs from the Phillies clubhouse, and I’ve got to say, that place is positively giddy. I think a lot of times we as sports writers get a little too corny with our attempts to place unwarranted psychological significance on certain events. A lot of times in baseball, it simply comes down to: see ball, hit ball.

But I’m convinced that Jimmy Rollins is one of those rare athletes whose presence really can invigorate a team. It’s why I disagree with those who say he shouldn’t have been MVP last year. By now, I’m sure you all know he singled, doubled and homered in his first start in over a month. But beyond that, I’m convinced his presence made his teammates better. Not in a concious way. Jayson Werth and Greg Dobbs didn’t walk up to the plate thinking, “I’m going to single now because Jimmy Rollins is here.”

Helium Watch: Dodgers Prospect Andrew Lambo

Scouting the power-hitting Dodgers prospect:

Lambo has a simple, quiet swing until he starts rotating those hips and moving those hands forward. You see a forward shift in weight to build up momentum, a small loading of the hands, and then at foot plant he turns his hips and hands together aggressively.

Rather than achieving “extension”, Lambo lets the ball travel to him instead of letting his hands meet the ball (which saps a player of much of their power). Letting the ball travel deep is an excellent indicator of bat speed.

Newsday: Davidoff: Derek Jeter has a terrible VORP

“This is why I think all these newfangled stats are nothing but a bunch of garbage, invented by people who have too much time on their hands and a desperate need to prop up certain players while tearing down others."* (*from the engaging Davidoff the cuffers in the comments)

M-Crash asked me this morning to check Derek Jeter’s VORP, so I did. Here is his ranking among shortstops (13th overall). Here is his overall ranking (tied for 124th with J.D. Drew).

Of course, of course, it’s still early, and Jeter historically hits better in the second half. He also missed a week with a quad injury. But still, are any of you alarmed by Jeter’s lack of power? Wally Matthews discussed that with Jeter in his column today.

Here is the best explanation I’ve seen for how VORP is calculated. It’s a particularly relevant stat given the Yankees’ injuries. We’re seeing how much their lineup is hurt by the absence of Alex Rodriguez (who led all of baseball last year with a 96.6 VORP) and Jorge Posada (who was eighth overall, and first among catchers, with a 73.4). VORP doesn’t factor in defense _ for that, you need WARP, or Wins Above Replacement Player _ but right now, offense is the Yankees’ problem.

THT: Studeman: Ten things I didn’t know last week

Including 2008 Win Shares...which are now available!

There’s Chase Utley, and there is everyone else. Utley is batting .351/.429/.746, leading the majors in slugging. Yes, he has cooled a bit from his ultra-hot April, but not by much. Actually, he’s slugging .704 over the last seven days. It’s all relative.

Dan Uggla is continuing his homerific ways in Florida (.269/.348/.555), and he has also managed to up his batting average and OBP this year. Win Shares calls Utley and Uggla even in fielding prowess; that’s because Win Shares uses double plays as the primary measure of second base fielding prowess, whereas range is a secondary consideration. However, the number of double play chances is estimated, not actual, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this ranking change as the season progresses.

The top AL second baseman is, um, Howie Kendrick of the Angels. Kendrick has three Win Shares above bench, despite playing only 10 games. A .500 batting average will do that for you. Among qualified AL second basemen, Dustin Pedroia is the leader. The Yankees’ Robinson Cano is bringing up the rear among all second basemen, at four Win Shares below bench. That makes him the worst position player thus far this year.

TSN: Pinto: How the heck is the NL outscoring the AL?

So help me...If I see Ted Uhlaender end up in the top 5 in Batting Average, I’ll...I’ll…

Not only is the NL giving more PA to younger players, its younger players tend to be better. Note that at the ages where the NL OPS is higher, it tends to be much higher than it is at the corresponding AL age. Where the AL OPS is higher, the gap is not quite as large. Even in the 31-34 group, the NL is better except at age 34.

This bodes well for the Senior Circuit in the long term. Not only are their hitters producing at a higher rate, but their ages are in the range where we can still expect them to maintain or improve their performances. Meanwhile, AL teams keep signing older players such as Mike Lowell, Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez and Torii Hunter to long-term contracts. Over the next few seasons, we may see some AL clubs do what the Marlins, Diamondbacks and Rockies have done recently. Tearing teams down to watch young talent develop resulted in a high scoring National League, even without a designated hitter.

What the Future Holds for Brandon Wood | Baseball-Intellect

A break down on Angels prospect Brandon Wood.  An excerpt is below:

By striking out as much as he does, Wood puts a cap on his batting average and in the process puts a cap on his OBP since Wood doesn’t walk enough to make up for a sub-par batting average. His MLE (Major League Equivalency) for batting average is around .230.

If Wood hits .230, his OBP still comes out in the .280 - .310 range. If you bump his average up to .250, his OBP becomes more respectable. If he is able to hit .270, Wood will have a great deal of value because his OBP will be at a more than acceptable level. One reason for the high K% is the problems he has with pitch recognition, which is one of the more difficult things to improve upon, though it is doable.

USA Today: Shandler: Chipper Jones’ .400 tear unlikely to last

Out on a limb with Ron Shandler…

It’s May 7, and Chipper Jones is batting better than .400.

This is not an entirely unusual occurrence. Hitters often top .400 for short periods of time. We take notice when it happens at the beginning of the season, but there are many in-season .400 stretches that pass without a second thought. Did you know that Pat Burrell batted .435 last July?

...If we break down batting average into its component parts, perhaps we can uncover the truth.

A hit is constructed of two general events — a batter making contact with a pitch and the ball falling fair. A batter’s contact rate (at-bats minus strikeouts, divided by at-bats) is a skill we can track over time. An average batter will have a rate of about 80%; in other words, he will hit a ball into fair territory in 80% of his at-bats. The best contact hitters will have rates well in excess of 90% and are typically among baseball’s batting average leaders.

In 2007, Placido Polanco led the majors with a contact rate of 95% and batted .341. This year, Mike Sweeney leads the majors with a 99% contact rate (he has struck out once in 77 at-bats) and is batting .311.

Jones’ contact rate is 91%.

Beyond the Boxscore: Anderson: This Isn’t FJM, But…

R.J. picks apart Golokhov...which, if not cleaned immediately, could lead to painful Saberrhoeic dermatitis!

Sabermetrics and scientific stats are used to evaluate players and give a better indication of their worth, but teams like the Minnesota Twins use this strategy to kiss their superstars goodbye at the trade deadline or the first day of free agency.

Or maybe he simply doesn’t know what he’s talking about. When you think of statistically savvy teams I imagine the franchises that pop to mind, in no particular order are the A’s, Padres, Jays, Red Sox, Rays, Indians, and perhaps the Pirates nowadays, but the Twins? Not so much.

As for Golokhov’s second point; how many superstars have the Twins shipped off over the past few years that actually have came back to haunt them? David Ortiz is one, but outside of Casey Blake the players they’ve let walk, like Jacque Jones and Cristian Guzman, haven’t exactly been “superstars” or “good” since leaving. Further being a statistical orientated team doesn’t mean you just let your superstars walk, or have we forgotten how those darn stats teams re-signed players like Jake Peavy, Mike Lowell, Travis Hafner, and Eric Chavez over the years?

If the Twins are considered a stats franchise who lets players walk, why did Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, and Joe Nathan get re-signed to deals ranging from 24 million to 80 million?

THE PROTRADE JOURNAL: An Earnings Projection Method for Hitters

And here’s Part 1 of Bosox Bob’s work...using Dan’s ZiPS projections.

In my first pass using this approach, I pro-rated the ZiPS earnings projections for the remaining May-September ABs. The result? The average error dropped to 23.2% - less than either data set’s projections taken separately. This approach is flawed however, as it would overweight the ZiPS projection and underweight any performance level changes as the season progressed.

To counter this, I computed a combined earnings rates from the April and ZiPS data, weighting by ABs to date and projected ABs respectively (aprox. ? April data to ? ZiPS data). This rate was used to project the remaining earnings for the year. With this method, the average error went down to 21.5%. As a check of this projection method, I repeated the process using stats through the end of May, which yielded an average error of 19.2% - more accurate than a month prior.

2008 Hitter Projections

Now that we’ve established a projection method, let’s see what players it currently identifies as good buys. Using 2008 ZiPS and player stats to date for the season, I generated projections for all hitters (note: expected ABs were based on player’s average ABs per team games played, minus games missed on DL). The following table contains all hitters whose pace and projection are at least 25% greater than their current price:

THT: Brown: Putting pressure on the defense

“Using the Three True Outcomes, a look at five players who specialized in making the defense work”...or why my Bobby Richardson “Challenge the Yankees” card had more rips in it than a Richard Hell pus-enhanced t-shirt.

He finds himself here because for the 1963 season, he cut his walk to 3.6 percent and strikeout rate to 3.5 percent, but remained in line with his average output as a hitter. Over his 12 year career, Richardson hit .266/.299/.335 with 34 home runs.

While Richardson was a revered member of those World Champion Yankee teams, he was an out machine. He finished second in outs in 1963 which was the only year from 1961 to 1965 where he did not lead the league in that category. It didn’t help that he routinely hit leadoff or second later in his career.

While the 1963 Yankees won the AL pennant for the fourth straight year, they certainly carried a bunch of low OBP players. Richardson at .294 along with Clete Boyer at .295 and shortstop Tony Kubek at .294 helped hold the Yankees team OBP to .307 which ranked them seventh out of 10 teams in the league.

That Kubek led off and Richardson hit second for Ralph Houk’s team would melt the internets if that happened today. I’m pretty sure Tom Tresh wasn’t happy about his lack of RBI opportunities.