The Book Blog: MGL: Today on Clubhouse Confidential

Or as Ozzie Guillen tweeted about this fantastic slice…“all gm in baseball please give mitchel litchman a job or bench coach he is good hahaha wow.”

RLYW: CAIRO 2012 v0.5 and More Somewhat Useless Projected Standings

These look more realistic to me than the last set I ran with Marcel.  Probably a bit high on the Yankees, but since CAIRO was created to make the Yankees look better than they are that stands to reason.

Edes: ‘Think Factory’ projects falloff for Ellsbury

Hey, I must have missed the internal primer-list on this…because I never got a say!

Jacoby Ellsbury will see and hear a lot of this in the coming weeks, questions about whether he can duplicate his MVP-worthy performance in 2011.

Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory weighed in on the subject on ESPN Insider. Here are his thoughts:

2011 Projected OPS: .733
Actual OPS: .928

...Historically, when players have had these kinds of home run breakouts, their follow-up seasons have been a mixed bag. However, players have generally kept quite a bit of improvement from even the flukiest-looking home run totals. While Ellsbury might not hit 30 again, it’s extremely likely he’ll continue to hit more than the 10 he was hitting just a few years ago. ZiPS projects a decline to 16 home runs, but that’s with only 560 projected plate appearances—if Ellsbury gets 732 plate appearances, he should hit 20 again.

BPro: Wyers: Reintroducing PECOTA

Much like John Wathan…juggling PECOTA around.

PECOTA has arrived.

BP’s projection system, at its core, follows the same basic principles as it has before. We begin with our baseline projections, which start with a weighted average of past performance, with decreasing emphasis placed on seasons further removed from the season being projected. Then that performance is regressed to the mean. After that, we use the baseline forecast to find comparable players (while also taking into account things like position and body type) and use those to account for the effects of aging on performance.

Every season we put PECOTA under the knife, looking for things we can improve to make sure we’re coming up with the best forecasts possible. Sometimes what we come up with is a minor tweak. At other times, though, what we unearth is not only more significant, but an interesting baseball insight in its own right, even aside from its inclusion in PECOTA.

This season, we’ve made some rather radical changes to how we handle the weighted averages for the PECOTA baselines—we still deemphasize past seasons, but nowhere near as much as we used to. With such a dramatic and counterintuitive change, we thought it best to give our users an explanation of what was changed and why so that they could correctly use and interpret the PECOTA forecasts.

DuPaul: How much money has AJ Burnett cost the Yankees?

AJ cooked: Final destination - 2 years.

Burnett has played three seasons for New York, since they signed him to a monster 5-year/$82.5 million contract.  This deal is similar to some other contracts starting pitchers have received recently:

-Justin Verlander 5 years/$80 million

-Felix Hernandez 5 years/$78 million

-Jered Weaver 5 years/$85 million

-CJ Wilson 5 years/$77.5 million

...The Yankees have paid out $49.5 million thus far to Burnett for three seasons of service. Based on Linear dollars per fWAR, Burnett has been worth $28.2 million.  Thus, New York has incurred a net loss of the $21.3 million by having AJ on their payroll. They owe Burnett $16.5 million next season and in 2013; so they’ll continue losing money by having Burnett pitch in the Bronx.  Burnett would need to be worth a total of $54.3 million combined over the next two seasons, for the Yankees to break even on the signing.  In order to do this, AJ would only have to duplicate his ’08 season (18-10, 4.07 ERA, 231 K’s 5.5 fWAR) in 2012, and then duplicate his ’05 season (12-12, 3.44 ERA, 198 K’s, 5.1 fWAR) in 2013.  Shouldn’t be too hard, especially because the Yankees’ website currently lists Burnett outside their starting rotation.

Tigers’ Dombrowski confident in Fielder’s longevity

Just take Bill James’ findings, throw them down a steep ravine into a shallow grave covered with leaves…that won’t be found until a man walking his dog stumbles upon them.

The Tigers’ general manager spoke Tuesday as part of a Detroit Sports Broadcasters Association luncheon, expressing confidence new first baseman Prince Fielder can stay productive through most if not all of his expensive nine-year contract.

Detroit signed the hefty slugger to a $214 million deal last month. Dombrowski acknowledges the risk but points out that the hefty slugger is only 27.

“The prime of your career is what, through 32, 33?” Dombrowski said. “That’s seven of the nine years already, and my gut reaction is that this guy will continue to swing the bat. How his body will look in nine years or seven years, I really don’t know. He is a heavy-set guy but he’s also become more aware of trying to keep himself in the best shape he possibly can.”

...The Tigers acquired Fielder to help them try to defend their AL Central title after designated hitter Victor Martinez went down with a severe left knee injury. Fielder and Miguel Cabrera should form a potent middle of the batting order, but the move did create some complications. Detroit is set to shift Cabrera from first base to third to make room for Fielder.

“There’s very few guys that are Gold Glovers and are batting champions and All-Stars from an offensive perspective. They’re called Hall of Famers - and even some Hall of Famers have had some shortcomings of one area or another,” Dombrowski said. “We think Miguel will be adequate at third base from a defensive perspective. I don’t mean to say he’s going to be a Gold Glover. ... He’s got good hands, he’s got a strong arm, he wants to play there and he’ll work very hard at it.”

BASN: The MLB FRAUD - Oakland, Los Angeles, and New York

Straight from the riveting pages of The Beane Eaters comes…

The jig is up for Major League Baseball, just ask the cities of New York, New York, Los Angeles, and Oakland, California.

The con game is over and the cover is being lifted. MLB wants fans to attend games with minor league players on the field. MLB wants fans to buy their team’s products, and to watch inferior baseball.

The question should be asked, why do fans of the New York Metropolitans, the Oakland Athletics or the Los Angeles Dodgers support their teams?

It seems odd or a coincidence that these teams have a competitor across town to compete for the same fans. Teams that have owned or will own the city. The New York Yankees dominate the Big Apple, the San Francisco Giants own the Bay Area. With the new star first baseman and National League all star Albert Pujols joining the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. You can bet Southern California fans will be flocking to Orange County and leaving Chavez Ravine.

...What is troubling, other teams are now following the Money Ball method of running a baseball team. With Commissioner Bud Selig’s wishes. Baseball continues to slide down the American popularity poll.

...Baseball fans have to take it into their own hands and not attend games of the New York Mets, Oakland A’s, and Los Angeles Dodgers to make their message clear. Put a product on the field that can compete for a division title.

Matthews: Is Brett Gardner leadoff hitter or caboose?

New hot potato caboose that is.

Despite their difference in Wins Above Replacement—Jeter’s was 2.3, Gardner’s 5.1 according to FanGraphs, mostly because of his high defensive rating—Jeter was the winner of this WAR, and the discussion has hardly been raised this winter.

The Yankees’ best lineup last year seemed to be the one with Jeter leading off and Gardner hitting ninth.

And yet, there is a circumstance in which the Yankees might do better with Gardner batting first and Jeter second in 2012—when a right-hander is starting. In fact, that would probably cover close to two-thirds of the season.

The reason is that Gardner’s OBP versus righties the last two seasons is significantly higher than Jeter’s. In 2010 and 2011, Gardner’s OBP vs. righties was .383 and .345, respectively; Jeter’s was .316 and .329. And throughout his career, Jeter has been a slightly better hitter in the 2-hole, where for years he batted regularly. As a leadoff hitter, Jeter’s career BA and OBP are .309/.379; they are .314/.385 as a No. 2 hitter. Plus, Gardner’s speed should make it easier for him to steal against a right-handed pitcher.

Now, when a lefty is pitching, the numbers are reversed: Jeter’s OBP’s over the last two seasons (.391/.423) are better than Gardner’s (.373/.344).

So the answer seems pretty simple: Gardner leads off, Jeter bats second when a righty is starting; Jeter leads off, Gardner bats ninth when a lefty is starting.

Uchill: The math says count on Patriots victory: How football analytics predict the big game

I always figured my dancing with Madonna was the low point of her career, but after this Sunday…that might change.

Predicting 60 percent of games correctly is astoundingly high – gamblers need to win less than 53% of their games to make a profit. That is why analytics are so popular among bettors, said Elihu Feustel, professional gambler, one-time casino consultant and co-author of “Managing Risk: Attacking Vegas and Wall Street.”

Feustel, of South Bend, Ind., devotes multiple chapters of his book to betting on football. He does not, however, like football.

“I think it’s boring,” he said. He is still willing to make money off of it.

...Baseball may be better known than football for the use of analytics. The Oscar-nominated movie based on a best-selling book, “Moneyball,” traced the Oakland A’s road to success using advanced statistics , but no plans have been made for “Football Outsiders: The Movie.”  But football analytics have their own vibrant research community in universities across the country.

Vince Gerrano, executive director of the Sports Analytics institute at Manhattanville University in New York, said football analytics time has come.

“Baseball came first because it’s so much more difficult to analyze individual contribution from a player in football,” he said. “In football, there is so much interdependency.

HHS: Lou Brock is no Hall of Famer

I’mbroglio and you an’t.

One of the big knocks against Brock was that he didn’t walk very much. This really hurt his on-base percentage and makes his career .293 batting average fairly soft. Over his career, he averaged 14.76 plate appearances for every walk. Of the 34 Hall of Famers who had at least 2000 plate appearances from 1960-1979, only a handful walked less frequently than Brock. For the record, those were Ernie Banks (14.77), Luis Aparicio (15.51), Nellie Fox (16.11), Bill Mazeroski (18.36), Robin Yount (19.10), and Andre Dawson (20.85), and these numbers are all limited to the portions of careers in just the period 1960-1979. Most of those guys, however, also struck out a lot less often than Brock, who had a 2.27 K/BB ratio in his career. Banks (1.84), Aparicio (0.97), Fox (0.35), Mazeroski (1.46), and Yount (1.96) had more balanced attacks, while Dawson (3.64) was just getting going with his own (HOF-questionable) career.

Brock also took over the lead in career caught stealings in 1974 and kept that lead until 1999, when Rickey Henderson passed Brock, 8 years after he passed him in stolen bases. In fact, looking at the top 10 guys in all-time stolen bases, Brock has the worst success rate of all (ignoring Hamilton and Arlie Latham, for whom caught stealing data doesn’t exist.) Brock’s rate was 75.3%. By comparison, Henderson was at 80.8%, Ty Cobb at 80.9%, and Tim Raines at 84.7%.

For his career, Brock ranks 35th in games played and 19th in at bats, but only 45th in runs scored, 63rd in total bases, 67th in doubles, 63rd in triples, and 58th in times on base, while 21st in strikeouts and 17th in outs made.

So what’s all the fuss? Brock was a really good player, but should he really be in the Hall of Fame?

Tino Martinez savors place in Ted Williams Hitters Hall of Fame

Woo-hoo! Next stop, the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame!

Tino Martinez only met Ted Williams once, a chance passing at Fenway Park in the early 1990s when Martinez was first establishing himself as a major-leaguer. Martinez, the quiet kid from Tampa, stumbled through a forgettable version of hello; Williams, the game’s pre-eminent expert on hitting, replied with words as memorable now as that afternoon:

‘‘You’ve got a great swing.”

Martinez swung that way for most of 16 seasons, piling up strong numbers (a .271 average, 339 homers, 1,271 RBIs) and, most impressively, four World Series championships. And Friday, in a ceremony at Tropicana Field, Martinez will be inducted into the Ted Williams Hitters Hall of Fame.

“Obviously I’m not going to the major-league baseball Hall of Fame, but to be considered and have the criteria to get into the Ted Williams Hall is quite an honor,” Martinez said. “I can’t think of anything better, (other) than the major-league baseball Hall of Fame, than the Ted Williams Hall.”

...And there was talk of catching on somewhere to get to 2,000 hits — he finished with 1,925, plus 83 in the postseason — but decided, “You don’t stick around for the numbers.”

HBT: Cartwright: Why Oliver Loves Yu

Great pitcher?  Or greatest pitcher?  Cartwright chooses (c) my projection engine messed up.

6.2 WAR, 2.57 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 16-4 W-L, 185 IP, 138 H,  8 HR, 41 BB, 198 K

It looks like Yu broke Oliver. That’s Yu Darvish; Oliver is the engine of The Hardball Times Forecasts. It’s not the first time it’s happened, but when a player so dominates his non-major league competition that that his derived major league true talent exceeds generally accepted norms, it offers an opportunity to examine the system and make some changes for the better.

ESPN: Mark Teixeira ... $180 million bunter?

Hell, just pull a couple of bunts.

In order to beat the shift, Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira claims he’s going to do the previously unfathomable: bunt.

“I’ve been so against it my entire career, but I might lay down a few bunts,” Teixeira conceded Tuesday night. “If I can beat the shift that way, that’s important. “
Teixeira hit just .191 this season as a left-handed hitter with no men on, according to Mark Simon from ESPN Stats & Info. So clearly, he’s going to have to make some changes.

It’s a decision Teixeira says he made on his own.

“Kevin [Long] and I made the decision of squaring myself up, and so when I’m open, I see the pull side a lot better, and that right field porch is just so enticing at Yankee Stadium,” Teixeira said. “I’m not going to complain about hitting 39 home runs, but I’d love to bring my [.248] average up, and it’s very simple, it’s left-handed singles.

MASN: Positionally, Werth is the center of attention

TARGET WERTH!

About the biggest uncertainty revolves around Jayson Werth - will he play center field or right field, and if it’s center, who’s in right?

Rizzo and manager Davey Johnson insist Werth is capable of manning center. They think he’s got sufficient speed to cover the gaps and there’s no doubt that he’s the kind of take-charge outfielder to can play traffic cop (in other words, none of that silliness where the center fielder allows himself to be called off a catchable ball, which has happened occasionally in the past). In his brief trial in center at the end of last season, Werth acquitted himself well, making good reads and taking good routes to the ball. He’s no stranger to center, having played the position in each of his nine major league seasons, but his 31 games and 233 1/3 innings at the position with the Phillies in 2008 were his career highs at the spot.

TFT: Mitchell: Fred Lynn, Jim Rice, the 1979 MVP Race and the Hall of Fame

As Bill James once (or maybe more than once) wrote in an old Abstract…“Jim Rice was by far the worst in this respect…” (random nonsense pull there)

The Lynn narrative is that he peaked in his rookie year and was never a great player after that, while the Rice narrative is that he went on to become the league’s most feared player.  Neither of these narratives are true.  Lynn peaked in 1979, continued to be a star into the early 1980s, and a useful player into the mid-1980s.  Rice, for his part, was a top hitter for many years, but the best and most feared hitter in the AL, during most of Rice’s career was George Brett.  Brett, by the way, like Lynn hit for a higher batting average, OBP and slugging percentage while contributing more than Baylor on defense in 1979.

The biggest winner from the 1979 MVP vote, at least from the historical perspective, was not Baylor, but Rice.  The 1979 vote also contributed to Lynn lasting only two years on the Hall of Fame ballot, while his long time teammate, despite very comparable career offensive numbers, got elected to Cooperstown. Rice had a career OPS+ of 128, while Lynn’s in around 1000 fewer plate appearances was 129, but Rice was a left fielder and DH while for most of his career Lynn was a good center fielder.  Lynn’s career and Hall of Fame chances were derailed by injuries, but the difference in how they were treated by Hall of Fame voters is nonetheless stark.  Had Lynn won the MVP in 1979, which he deserved, he would have been viewed differently by baseball writers when it came time for the Hall of Fame voting.  He may not have gotten elected, but the logic of keeping Lynn out while putting Rice in would have been harder to defend.  Moreover, Had Brett won that MVP award, which he deserved more than Baylor and almost as much as Lynn, the story of Rice being a more feared hitter than Brett would have gotten less traction, because Brett would have been a two-time MVP, thus damaging Rice’s Hall of Fame chances.  Instead, Baylor won the MVP allowing the logic of the Rice Hall of Fame narrative became more powerful over time.

Denny McLain’s message to Brandon Inge: Get over it

“Denny McLain at the Mouth Organ”...Out now on RICO Records!

Denny McLain held up an autographed photo of Brandon Inge and showed it to his audience.

“This was Brandon Inge’s last photo before he began whining about his playing time,” McLain announced.

The former Tigers pitcher drew laughter from 300 guests who attended the Madonna University baseball team’s fundraiser Saturday. Inge lost his shot to start last week when the Tigers signed Prince Fielder to a nine-year, $214 million contract; he will play first base and Miguel Cabrera will move to third.

...McLain held the Inge photo up and tossed it to the floor.

“It’s the first time he’s hit something in two years,” McLain said, to more laughter.

“This is a wonderful deal,” McLain added of the Fielder signing. “You can never be upset about getting a guy that drives in 100 runs and you are a backup to the best hitter in baseball. Now you’ve got (Fielder) and Cabrera, and it doesn’t matter who you put in front or in back of them, they are going to be better hitters because of these two. I suspect Miggy won’t be Brooks Robinson at third base, but neither was Brandon Inge.

“I’d rather have a guy who bats over .300 and drives in 100 runs who boots a few balls or doesn’t get to some than a guy who hits .190 and is not contributing offensively in a major way. I would make that trade every day.”

Ryan Howard’s contract looks good to Amaro

Hell…Brill’s Content and Talk looked good to me at one point. So there’s that.

“I’m kind of happy,” Amaro said. “Really happy because if I would’ve had to put eight or nine years on Howard’s deal right now, that would be a little disconcerting. Right now we have Howard for the next five years. I kind of like that rather than giving an eight-, nine- or 10-year deal.”

...Amaro has been criticized for Howard’s contract - it’s worth $25 million per season compared to $24 million for Pujols and $23.7 million for Fielder - and that was before the first baseman tore his Achilles’ tendon making the final out in the team’s NLDS loss to St. Louis.

“He’s still, say what you want about Ryan Howard and how he stacks up against those guys, but there’s not too many people who over the last several years that have had this kind of production and he’s right there with those guys,” Amaro said.

...The numbers are comparable, though Howard ranks third in all but home runs. Amaro, however, said he doesn’t see the Big Piece on the downside of his career.

“I think that Ryan’s the kind of guy - this is one of the reasons we signed him to two long-term deals - even when we signed him to a multi-year deal he got himself in better shape than he’s ever gotten himself into,” Amaro said. “There’s always a fear that guys get complacent. That’s not what we’re going to get out of Ryan. I know Ryan. Ryan’s desire to be successful remains very high. I know there was no one more upset with the way things ended the last couple of years than he is. I think he’s going to be as productive a player as he has been in the past and even more so at times.”

Stuart MacGill: Hollywood makeover can’t disguise the myopia of statistics boffins

Modern leg-spin bowlers unite! (stumped)

In the plane on the way to Perth for the Big Bash final, I watched Moneyball, a movie about an American baseball manager who puts together a team capable of mixing it with the big boys on a shoestring budget. The core principle of the movie is computer analysis and statistics. Baseball games are broken down into component parts and players are selected based on their statistical suitability to each of those parts

...Unfortunately, he then pulled out the printouts. One of them was a map of where my deliveries had pitched and the other was a corresponding document showing how many runs had been scored from each of those deliveries.

John (Buchanan) excitedly told me that whenever I pitched the ball on off stump, the batsman wasn’t scoring. He generally took half an hour to make a point and, considering the tea break at a Test match is only 20 minutes, we were already walking back onto the field at the time. I turned to him and replied that the reason they weren’t scoring when I bowled that particular delivery was because the ball had been turning half a metre and they couldn’t actually reach it.

I thanked him kindly for his input and asked him whether or not he thought I should concentrate instead on getting them out. His blank face indicated that he would have to go back to the laptop before he could respond.

Incidentally, I did start putting them in the right place occasionally, picked up my only five-wicket haul at the MCG and we went on to win the Test. Computers have a huge role to play in cricket, all sport for that matter, but remember the basic principles of the game will always be of paramount importance.

Moneyball is a great film but the stats that matter in cricket are simple. Make more runs than the opposition and bowl them out twice.

Aiken Standard: Smoltz is Hall of Fame worthy

The back of a John Smoltz baseball card looks like a database on the fritz.

“Nobody really understands,” the former Atlanta Braves pitcher said by phone from his Alpharetta, Ga., home when asked about the unique difficulty of transitioning mid-career from starter to reliever and back again to starter.

“It really was very difficult,” Smoltz said. “I had to learn about being a closer on the job.”

...Smoltz says the Hall of Fame is no big deal.

“It doesn’t bother me,” said Smoltz, who becomes Hall of Fame-eligible in 2015. “People talk to me about that all the time, but I’m not consumed by it. My answer matches the way that I approach life: If it happens, great, and if it doesn’t, it’s not going to change me.”

...Perhaps the best case for Smoltz is that if he messed with his Hall of Fame chances by switching from starter to reliever to starter, he didn’t think about it at the time.

“Nothing I did was based on personal statistics,” Smoltz said. “I wanted to win. I wanted to win probably worse than anybody in the history of the game, and that’s all that mattered to me.”

Oh yeah, if he wanted the Braves to win so freakin’ badly…why did he become a closer?!

Mariners may move Ichiro from leadoff spot

For 11 seasons, Ichiro Suzuki has been the Mariners’ leadoff hitter. In his 1,749 major-league games, there have been just a few dozen in which Ichiro wasn’t the first player in the Seattle lineup.

That may change this coming season. In fact, if Manager Eric Wedge can find the right batting combination, there’s a “good possibility” Ichiro will be batting somewhere else in the lineup, he told 710 ESPN Seattle radio on Wednesday evening.

“If you had to put a gun to my head right now, I’d probably be leaning in that direction, but I’m not going to just close myself off until Spring Training,” Wedge told the radio station.

So, who else might lead off for the Mariners? Maybe Dustin Ackley. Maybe Franklin Gutierrez. Maybe even Chone Figgins — if he can remember what a baseball bat is.

...Whoever gets the leadoff spot, Wedge know what he wants to see.

“I want him to get on base, I want him to see pitches, I want him to help the number-two-hole hitter, the number-three-hole hitter, the four-hole hitter,” Wedge told ESPN Seattle radio during Wednesday evening’s Sports Star of the Year awards banquet at Benaroya Hall.

“So we’ll see. Ichiro is very unique, but I’ve been very frank with him and very clear in regard to what I’m looking to do, so we’ll see.”

Thanks to Tonnage.

Don Malcolm: JACK-KNIFE: THE LAST TWIST…

No, it’s not the final Jack Palance dancing scene from The Big Knife...it’s about The Jack Morris!

Now of course there is not a single BBWAA writer who knows these stats and how they relate to Jack Morris. What they know is that Morris had a late kick in 1991-92 (which is just about the last point in time that remains reasonably within memory for many BBWAA members) and that he was a big winner for two consecutive World Champs in those years. This has obliterated the fact that Jack was seriously subpar from 1988-90.

The strange thing, in fact, is that when we break out Jack’s career, it’s clear that he’s really more of a “peak” candidate than anything else. Combining together Jack’s twelve best years in terms of won-loss record (not saying that this is what should be done, mind you, but doing it anyway…), he has a 204-123 record. That works out to a .623 WPCT. The remainder of Jack’s career is exceptionally bad (50-63, 4.59 ERA), but, as Jonathan Bernhardt—doing his damnedest to occupy the rhetorical space of Chris(tina) Kahrl circa 1999—so slitheringly put it: Morris is a winner.

The BBWAA voters probably have no idea that Morris parlayed good fortune in mediocrity to such a tidy little WPCT, but they are as subliminal a bunch as their “disloyal opposition” is not: they don’t have to quantify, cauterize, conspire, or even Midasize in order to have a bone twinge about Jack. (Not that some of these folk aren’t simply bandwagoning to get the collective goat of the numbers guys: that’s part of the latest “surge”—another word, like “metrics,” etc., that’s been defaced by the special mud that is meant for major league baseballs but is currently ricocheting into the eyes of the disenfranchised.)

Please understand that none of the above is meant as an endorsement for Jack’s candidacy. It simply shows the components that are located “underneath the narrative” that so many post-neo folk have given a semiological credence via their arch articulation. It’s our theory that the components took awhile to coalesce beyond the subdural level, and that the scratch’n'claw tactics of the disloyal opposition unleashed a virus, which in this case operates more like the toxic agent found in poison ivy.

Barra: Jorge Posada for the Hall of Fame: Why Not?

Jorge Posada: Another Eternal Yankee (lays grindwork for next book).

Why was there so little support for Jorge Posada as a Hall of Fame player in this week’s sports press? The most common phrase was “borderline HOFer,” which, as I recall, I’ve even used in this space over the years. But let’s say it: Posada is a Hall of Famer, though perhaps he won’t make it on the first ballot. But he’ll make it.

Because he deserves it. Georgie was the second best catcher in baseball for most of his career, only behind Pudge Rodriguez—if you factor in overall value, probably behind both Pudge and Mike Piazza for several years. But what’s wrong with being the third best player at your position, especially when your position is the hardest to play and the hardest to find a good player for?

...One more note: A lot of Yankees fans are fond of saying that if Thurmon Munson had lived for another three years, he would have been a Hall of Fame catcher.

Well, let’s compare. Thurmon played in 1423 games, Jorge in 1829. Munson out hit Posada by a wider margin, .292 to .273. But Posada was a much better all-around hitter with 275 home runs to Munson’s 113 and with a .377 OBP and .477 SLG to Munson’s .350 and .410.

Sometimes it isn’t easy to recognize greatness, especially when it isn’t pretty. Jorge Posada played a tough, hard-nosed, and consistent brand of baseball for 17 seasons, and he was one of the 10 best ever at the toughest job in baseball. We may not have known it, but all those years we watched him, we were seeing a Hall of Famer.

Matthews: What can we expect from A-Rod?

Still, both Long and GM Brian Cashman acknowledge that this version of A-Rod, who will turn 37 in July, is very much an unknown quantity.

“When he’s healthy, he’s always produced,’’ said Cashman, who when pressed for a prediction on Rodriguez’s final 2012 numbers, admitted, “I have no idea.’‘

(Kevin) Long, too, tempered his enthusiasm for A-Rod’s upcoming season with the caveat, “If he’s healthy ... ‘’

As in, if he’s healthy “I think 30-40 home runs is realistic.’‘

Rodriguez, of course, has not hit more than 30 home runs since 2008, when he hit 35. He followed that with two 30-home run seasons before bottoming out at 16 last year. But his run production has remained strong—his 125 ribbies in 2010 was his 13th consecutive 100+ RBI season—although his slugging percentage has plummeted from a high of .645 in his last MVP season (2007) to .461 in 2011.

And according to the projections of Dan Szymborksi of ZiPs Projections, and Bill James, A-Rod won’t make it to 30 this year, either. Szymborski has A-Rod playing just 108 games, with 21 HRs, 82 RBIs and a .264 BA. James is a bit more optimistic: he sees A-Rod finishing .277/29/86 in 134 games.

I don’t care how Wallace Matthews sez it…I get a kick out of him now using Dan’s ZiPs.

New Cubs pitching coach old-school

Welcome to The Bosio Super Wednesday Show!

Yes, Bosio and his pitchers will rely on advance scouts and some computer printouts for tendencies, but, he says, the strategy “is going to be more focused on how do we get them out. Let’s not worry about (what batters hit) on certain counts.

“Don’t write me a book,” he said at the Cubs Convention. “If you want to write a book, stick it in the mail and give it to someone who cares. Just give me some good information on how I can get this guy out. That’s probably in a nutshell what we’re trying to do.”

Then he is a believer in using certain pitches to get batters out?

“Either that or throw at his (helmet) ear hole,” Bosio said with a laugh. “We’re going to do our share of that. I’m an old-school guy. … There’s a way to do it and do it the right way. I know we’re on the same page, Theo and the coaching staff. It’s not rocket science, it’s just old-school baseball.”

...When he talks about “inside,” Bosio will be referring to location he wants pitchers to throw, not on some bit of inside information gleaned from a computer.

“We’re going to (do) our share inside,” he said. “We’re going to play a good, hard old-fashioned baseball with fundamental stuff. And try to minimize our walks and mistakes. If we do that, we’ll win our share of games.”

Bill James Mailbag - 1/22/12 - 1/25/12

If you had to pick one position player to build a team around who do you pick?
Asked by: Florko
Answered: 1/25/2012

Jacoby?  I dunno; might be Jacoby, Braun, Kemp, Longoria.  Brett Lawrie, maybe.

Hi Bill. In Nick Punto’s career he has walked 303 times and struck out 486. However, in his 63 games for the Cardinals last year he walked 25 times and struck out only 21 times and had a very strong half season. Is 63 games enough of a sample size to assume he may be improving as a hitter, or are his previous 824 games a better indication of what type of hitter he will be next year?
Asked by: izzy24
Answered: 1/25/2012

It is most likely an aberration.  It is most likely that his strikeout/walk ratio will return to historic norms in 2012.

...[Win Shares] as you’ve set them up (3 WS= 1 Win) are MORE meaningful in huge samples (i.e., a player with 200 WS over a career is prefereable to one with only 150) but I still thought that even a single WS in one season means something…
Asked by: sgoldleaf
Answered: 1/23/2012

...When we divide one win into three win shares, rather than ten, then each win share has a worth of approximately three runs, and then the distinctions become more reliable, which is not to say ABSOLUTELY reliable, but more reliable.  We are less likely to be wrong by 3 runs than we are by one run, and we are much less likely to be wrong by 9 runs than we are by 3 runs. 

Still. ..and this is one of those points that a lot of people are just never going to get. . .it is not the main purpose of Win Shares to make distinctions between single seasons.  If you’re arguing about, let us say, who to put on an All-Star team, then there are a thousand things you can look at it pursue that argument.  Saying that “This player has 27 Win Shares and that one has 25”—OR saying that this player has 6.9 WAR and that player has 6.3—is something of an effort to end the debate, in that these measures SUM UP all of the other measurements.  It’s not particularly helpful in that way; it’s not really appropriate to try to end those debates by citing a master statistic that overrules all of the other statistics, and it’s not terribly persuasive.  That’s really not the value in Win Shares.

Bill, the 2011 Colorado Rockies got 217 relief appearances from pitchers named “Matt.” Do you happen to know, off the top of your head, whether this is a record for one team getting the most bullpen games out of one first name?
Asked by: TJNawrocki
Answered: 1/22/2012

I’m pretty sure Jesse Orosco pitched that many times himself for the 1987 Mets.  I can’t believe I put 7 minutes of my life into researching this, but. . .I think it is a record.  The 1967 Twins got 162 game appearances (not all of them relief appearances) out of pitchers named “Jim”—Jim Kaat, Jim Perry, Jim Merrit, Jim Roland and Jim Ollom… I don’t find anybody else going over the 200 mark.

Tom, it would have been funny if Bill actually did know that off the top of his head.

MASN: Duquette on Betemit

Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette keeps placing emphasis on improving the Orioles’ on-base capabilities, and he feels that he took another step in that direction by signing infielder Wilson Betemit to a two-year deal with a vesting option for 2014.

Betemit has posted on-base percentages of .378 and .343 the past two seasons. And he’s been better hitting from the left side, which also appeals to Duquette.

“We like his bat, and if you take a look at what he’s done the last two years against right-handed pitching, he’s got an above-average average and above-average in getting on base and above-average power,” Duquette said.

“His value to us is as a hitter on the left side. His best position is batting. From the left side, he presents capabilities to hit for average and power. And we’re putting emphasis on improving our on-base percentage. If you look at some of the players we’ve acquired and signed, like Matt Antonelli and Ryan Flaherty, they all have good on-base capabilities. That’s something we’ve made a conscious effort to address and continue to address.”

Thanks to EddieH.

TFT: Mitchell: Darrell Evans, Tony Perez and Why the Hall of Fame Matters

BTW…Updating my BBWAA “promised” ballot collecting gizmo.

After going through 107 ballots (18.7%)

30 - WILL vote for Bonds/Clemens (5.2%...enough already to stay on ballot!)

44 - WILL NOT vote for Bonds/Clemens

33 - UNDECIDED (on their part or mine)

Darrell Evans was almost an exact contemporary of Tony Perez, as the two players careers overlapped from 1969-1986.  Evans, one of the most underrated players in the game’s history, may or may not have been better than Perez.  Evans’ slash numbers were similar .248./.341/.431 for an OPS+ of 119.  Evans came to bat about 150 times fewer than Perez and, significantly for Hall of Fame voters, had about 200 fewer RBIs, while hitting 35 more home runs.  However, Evans spent his prime playing for some offensively challenged Brave and Giant teams while Perez spent his prime batting in the middle of the Big Red Machine.  Evans was a more valuable defender as a third baseman who played a little at first, while Perez did the reverse.  Baseball Reference awards Evans 6.8 more WAR than Perez while Fan Graphs gives them both the same amount of WAR.

...Fans of Darrell Evans can, presumably, understand that there man is not quite worthy of the Hall of Fame, but the election of Tony Perez makes it harder to stomach.  Replace Evans and Perez with Dennis Martinez and Jack Morris, who is likely to get elected next year, or Tim Raines and Jim Rice, and the reason the Hall of Fame matters should be even more clear.

Astros add ‘Baseball Prospectus’ alum Fast in drive for stats knowledge

Congrats, Mike! (and for bbc’s sake let’s hope he…“cleans up real nice, not fat neither”!

The Astros added to their statistical strength in the front office, hiring Mike Fast of Baseball Prospectus to serve in the baseball operations department.

Fast, one of the foremost experts on pitch trajectory (PITCHf/x) data, has also written on HITf/x data for BP. Some of his latest writings have been on hit-and-run success, quantifying how much control pitchers have over batted balls and an analysis of hot and cold zones for hitters.

“We’re definitely excited to have someone with his background and interests,” general manager Jeff Luhnow said. “It’s a lot of the same things that we’re interested in studying.”

Fast joins director of decision sciences Sig Mejdal in a front office that is increasingly statistically minded. His job title has not been determined yet.

Kahrl: Will Jose Iglesias be the new Rey Ordonez?

Up The Sandbox Defense! (bust flop of the year?)

Something approaching normalcy from those hitters would make Iglesias that much more palatable if Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine—the man who managed Ordonez over the bulk of his “productive” career with the Mets—takes a shine to Iglesias in camp.

In the meantime, Boston’s fall-back options are fairly reasonable. Like Scutaro, Punto is neither the best or worst defender at short. The difference in their career OBPs (.338 vs. .325) is narrow enough to suggest there won’t be any drop-off with a change to the identity of the ninth-slot hitter in Boston’s lineup, and Punto actually has a higher walk rate for his career (10.2 percent to Scooter’s 9.1). That’s without getting into why Aviles might have been the best right-now option of the three. After getting jerked around by the Royals ever since coming back from the Tommy John surgery that put a dent in his future in 2009, he still profiles as a good bat and playable glove at short.

But it’s Iglesias who represents the team’s long-term future at short. And it’s Rey Ordonez’s old manager who will be helping to decide whether or not he can use the latest slick-fielding Cuban kid at short, sooner or later.

NYBD: Silva: Tom Seaver, Born to be a Dodger?

I had an opportunity to chat with Steven Travers last night, author of a new book called “The Last Icon: Tom Seaver and His Times,” on my radio program. Never before has someone delved into the career of the man known as “The Franchise.”

...Sutton was 32-years old, the same age as Seaver, and was entering the late prime of his career. He still had plenty left as from 1977-80 he went 54-39 with a 3.21 ERA. In comparison, Seaver went 63-34 with a 3.00 ERA. The Mets never could have received comparable value for Seaver; Baseball-Reference ranks only two pitchers (Roger Clemens and Walter Johnson) with more value in the history of the game; but Sutton was as fair a deal as they could have made.

Imagine the course of both teams history if Seaver wound up signing with Los Angeles. He could have taken over as the ace of the franchise for Koufax, who retired the year before Seaver’s debut. He might also have won far more than the 311 games which he finished.

During the 70s, he often had terrible offenses supporting him. Travers believes Seaver could have won 30 games during his 1971 season; a year that many believe was his best ever. Seaver finished 20-10 with a 1.76 ERA and set, the then, strikeout record for a RHP with 289. Ironically, Ferguson Jenkins won the Cy Young Award due to his 24 wins, despite posting an ERA a run higher.  ”Seaver could have won 30,” Travers said. He had 36 starts and I believe 31 to 35 of them are absolute possible victories. If he gives up 3 runs, forget about it, much less two. He has to win 1-0, 2-1 to win games. He could have been 31-3 in 1971, that’s how good he was.”

(grumble~grumble) Hey, pitch to the damn score and you won’t feel so franchiseled! (grumble~grumble over)