University of Missouri – St. Louis: Symposium on Statistics and Operations Research in Baseball

What would Babe Ruth do if he faced Pedro Martinez?
How would Tony LaRussa have done managing Whitey Herzog’s roster?

Paul Bessire of Fox Sports’ What-if-Sports Unit will demonstrate how he simulates these scenarios.  Paul is among the featured speakers at the Third Symposium on Statistics in Sports. 

The third Symposium on Statistics and Operations Research in Baseball will be another meeting of the baseball, industrial, and academic worlds. The focus is on how Statistics and Operations Research methodology is used within baseball and associated businesses and on how baseball inspires the expansion of the frontiers of Statistics and Operations Research as scientific fields. The theme of this year’s Symposium is “Answering Sports Questions with Rigor.”

Not THE Dr. Rigor!

Morris: Kevin Millwood, Rob Neyer, Evan Grant, luck, pitching, and defense

This is a blog post about a post by Evan Grant responding to a blog post by Rob Neyer commenting on a blog post by R.J. Anderson.

That I came across on Facebook...whew!

So this may be a bit meta.

In a nutshell, Grant takes issue with Neyer’s endorsement of Anderson’s point, which is that Kevin Millwood hasn’t really been any better this year than in the past few years.

Evan makes clear his thoughts on Millwood right off the bat:

By almost any evaluation, Millwood has been one of the top five or six pitchers in the AL this season.

I guess the problem is how one defines “top pitcher.” In terms of runs allowed or ERA, absolutely, he’s been one of the top pitchers in the league.

But when we talk about runs allowed or ERA, we mustn’t forget the Tenth Noble Truth of Bill James:

10. A great deal of what is perceived as being pitching is in fact defense.

Twinkie Town: Peterson: Runs Batted In: Opportunity vs Execution

Screw Hanley Ramirez...Morneau’s already a top run producer!

Justin Morneau: Elite Run Producer, or lucky to be batting behind Joe Mauer?

Over the past three years, no one on the Minnesota Twins has driven in more runs than the 2006 MVP, Justin Morneau:

2006: 130 RBI

2007: 111 RBI

2008: 129 RBI

That’s a lot of RBIs. Buthow much of this is Morneau the elite run producer, and how much does he take advantage of hitting behind one of the truly elite OBP guys in Joe Mauer? Let’s take a look at the number of RBI opportunities Morneau has had relative to the rest of MLB.

“Expected" Runs Batted In

How do we normalize each batter’s RBI opportunities? First we must create a baseline. I collected data from the entire 2008 and partial 2009 (through 7/1) seasons, counting the total number of RBI for each inning situation (e.g., one out, runner on second base). I used this data to calculate the average number of RBI that one would “expect” a batter to drive in for a given situation. I call this “Expected RBI”, or “eRBI”. Not surprisingly, bases empty, zero or one out (0.028 eRBI) is the least RBI-friendly situation, and one out, bases loaded (0.766 eRBI) is the best situation for driving in runs. I then added up the eRBI for each player across all of his plate appearances during the season. Who were the leaders in expected RBI?

WSJ: MLODINOW: From banking to baseball, winning streaks owe much to the laws of chance

And do Drunkard’s Walk more than DiMaggio did? All this and more!

DiMaggio’s hitting streak was an inspiration in troubled times. The pursuit of any record comes with pressure—Roger Maris lost some of his hair during his attempt to break Babe Ruth’s home-run record in 1961—but most records forgive you an off day as long as you compensate at other times. Not so with a streak, which demands unwavering performance. And so DiMaggio’s streak has been interpreted as a feat of mythic proportion, seen as a heroic, even miraculous, spurt of unrivaled effort and concentration.

But was it? Or was this epic moment simply a fluke?

Recent academic studies have questioned whether DiMaggio’s streak is unambiguous evidence of a spurt of ability that exceeded his everyday talent, rather than an anomaly to be expected from some highly talented player, in some year, by chance, something like the occasional 150-yard drive in golf that culminates in a hole in one. No one is saying that talent doesn’t matter. They are just asking whether a similar streak would have happened sometime in the history of baseball even if each player hit with the unheroic and unmiraculous—but steady—ability of an emotionless robot.

That randomness naturally leads to streaks contradicts people’s intuition. If we were to picture randomness, we might think of a graph that looks jerky, not smooth like a straight line. But random processes do display periods of order. In a toss of 100 coins, for example, the chances are more than 75% that you will see a streak of six or more heads or tails, and almost 10% that you’ll produce a streak of 10 or more. As a result a streak can look quite impressive even if it is due to nothing more than chance.

Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez takes game to the next level by becoming top run producer

Sometimes I think Massive Dynamic invented The RBI Machine...just to screw around with the world..

This season, only Todd Helton (23.16 percent) has knocked in a higher percentage of the runners on base during his plate appearances than Ramirez (22.61 percent).

“Tremendous,” Ramirez said of his work with Tony Perez. “We’ve talked about [hitting] with runners on base, trying to hit the ball up the middle. Every day in batting practice we keep talking about it. He’s helped me a lot.”

Ramirez could not ask for a better resource. A renowned RBI man during his Hall of Fame career, Perez, in every season from 1967-71, ranked among the NL’s top five in percentage of runners driven in, according to Baseball Prospectus.

“That was my job,” Perez said. “That was what the team expected of me and I wanted to do it. Any which way, a ground ball, anything, if I knocked in a run I was satisfied even if I made an out.

“You can’t swing hard all the time. You have to play the small game, get your hits and drive in runs that way. The pitcher and the catcher aren’t always going to give you a pitch to hit home runs. You have to adjust and make the appropriate swing. That’s what [Ramirez] is doing now. ... He has more experience, has matured. He now sees and can realize what he needs to do.”

Diamond Notes: Ned Colletti talks sabermetrics on XTRA Sports 1360 AM in San Diego:

“I think the sabrmetrics gets you interested. I think it gives you a chance to seek more information on somebody. But I’d have a hard time trading for a player or drafting a player that I really didn’t know what was inside his head and inside his heart and how he thought and how his priorities were set up and if he aspired for greatness and was willing to sacrifice. I’m not sure you’re going to get that off a stat sheet. But the numbers do tell part of the story. I think you have to have a mixture of all. Information is power, and as much information as you can get - whether it’s a number on a page or whether it’s a conversation with somebody - I think it adds to your decision-making process and helps you make better calls.”

S.I.: Freedman: With Manny coming back, red-hot Pierre forced to grin and bear it

“Stats are stats” handle going once, twice…

But if you’ve got a beating heart and any modicum of pride in what you do for a living, it’s hard to believe that Pierre is not at all perturbed that he’s heading back to the dugout despite putting up fantastic numbers in Ramirez’s absence. Pierre declined numerous requests to comment for this story, and tries to deflect as much attention from himself as he can in interviews with beat writers. But ask his best friend, Los Angeles Angels third baseman Chone Figgins, and it isn’t hard to read through the lines.

“I do feel badly for him because he’s my best friend and he’s not getting to play [regularly],” said Figgins, who came up with Pierre in the Colorado Rockies farm system. “But we’ve seen what happened with the Manny Ramirez situation and the fact that he did do something that was illegal. In retrospect, [the Dodgers] should see that a player that hasn’t done things like that is putting up numbers that are natural. It should be shown that we deserve more respect than what we get.”

..."Now he’s a so-called bench player, which isn’t accurate,” said Figgins. “Bench players don’t get a five-year contract or get 200 hits over the last couple years, [only] behind Ichiro [Suzuki]. Stats are stats.”

Basement Dwellers: What’s wrong with Bronson Arroyo?

NOTHING! He has one bad start out of every six or seven which screws up his ERA! Bronson Arroyo is the solution to all the Yankees’ proble...(sudden dismissive hand wave - Diet Coke ascites retention alert)

What I’m seeing here is a steady decline in his k/9 rates from mid-last season until now. His k/9 rate this year is its lowest since 2005 when with the Red Sox, and to me is looking pretty scary. I’ve long believed that Bronson’s bellweather stat is his strikeout rate, so color me concerned.

I’m no scout, so I can’t give you a precise cause. But let’s play a bit: his fastball run value has taken a huge hit this year, and appears to be where the problem lies among his major pitches from the pitch value data. But his fastball velocity, as he said, is essentially unchanged vs last year. And his fastball pitchf/x movement looks similar (maybe a slight drop in vertical movement, but not as large as 2007 vs 2008). Run values on his curve ball and change are actually improved this year, and are mostly unchanged on his slider, so those pitches look fine.

His walk rate is up this year. So, here’s a hypothesis: Arroyo’s not spotting his fastball this season, and so he can’t use it to properly set up his breaking slop as he usually does. And he’s behind in the count more than usual, causing him to give better pitches to hit. I can’t do my own pitchf/x at this point, but would someone like to test this who can assess strike zones? Maybe compare balls vs strikes on all 3-1 and 3-2 counts in 2009 vs. 2008 in which he threw a fastball? I’ve gone as far as I can go.

Fangraphs - Cameron : Morgan = Dunn

When the Nationals signed Adam Dunn over the winter to a 2 year, $20 million contract, the reaction from the sabermetric community was almost unanimously positive towards the move for Washington. For a fraction of his original asking price, they got the guy who had become something of a poster boy for the kind of player that statistical analysts have been claiming is undervalued for years. The walks and power skillset produces a lot of runs, and Dunn has a master’s degree in the walks and power skillset.

When the Nationals acquired Nyjer Morgan yesterday, the reaction from the sabermetric community was almost unanimously negative towards the move for Washington. He was routinely called a no-power fourth outfielder, easily replaceable, and a 29-year-old with no upside. The Nationals were destroyed for giving up on a “talent” like Lastings Milledge to acquire Morgan. Analysts I have quite a bit of respect for, like Keith Law, Dan Szymborski, and our own R.J. Anderson, hailed this as an easy win for the Pirates, as none of them see much value in Morgan.

Here’s the problem. Nyjer Morgan and Adam Dunn are nearly equals in value, and the polar reactions from the sabermetric crowd puts the blindspots that have been developed over the last 10-15 years on full display.

True Blue L.A.: Dodgers June In Review: Riding Out The June Swoon

Favorite Game of the Month:  In the span of one week, the Dodgers had three comeback wins in games they had no business winning (against the Diamonbacks, then the Phillies twice), and of course there was the Ethier three-dinger game, but my favorite game of June came on the penultimate day of the month.  The Dodgers trailed the Rockies 2-0, but scored the tying runs by a two-RBI single by pitcher Randy Wolf, after he induced a balk by trying to call time.  Then, the Dodgers used all seven members of their bullpen to pitch one inning apiece before Andre Ethier—who else?—ended the game with yet another walk-off home run.

Celebrity_jeopardy_connery_mediumThe Pen Is Mightier:  The Dodger bullpen was lights out in June, allowing only a 2.31 ERA and 1.018 WHIP.  Only three members of pen had an ERA above 2.16 for the month—two were optioned to the minors (Cory Wade, Travis Schlichting), and the other was closer Jonathan Broxton, who still struck out 21 batters versus 11 baserunners in his 11.2 innings.

Empty Bench:  Not counting the six games in which a bench player started at designated hitter, the eight active Dodger regulars in June started 195 of 211 possible games, or 92.4% of the time.  Perhaps that is a good thing, since the Dodger bench only hit .190/.257/.230, with six runs, five RBI, and six walks for the entire month.

Amazing Stat of the Month:  Russell Martin did finally hit his first home run of the season in June, but he managed to go through June without driving in another Dodger, in all of 94 plate appearances.  He has just the one RBI in his last 115 PA, since Memorial Day.

Rob Neyer: Is Ellsbury the new Pierre?

It’s true that Ellsbury’s been disappointing, and it’s not apparent that he’ll ever be not disappointing. Last season he batted .280/.336/.394; this year it’s .297/.345/.388. Ellsbury’s 25 going on 26; when Fred Lynn was 25, he’d won an MVP Award and been an All-Star three times. When Ichiro was 25 ... well, he was still starring in Japan, so it’s hard to make a comparison. Johnny Damon took some time to develop, but when he was 25 he batted .307/.397/.477.

So, yeah: Ellsbury’s behind those guys.

Juan Pierre, though? Ellsbury’s playing in the tougher league, and those extra 30 points of slugging percentage (career-wise) do count. Plus, Ellsbury’s a better basestealer, and by most accounts a better fielder. Even leaving aside the small matter of the large difference in their salaries—$10 million for Pierre, $0.5 million for Ellsbury—it’s exceptionally easy to understand that Ellsbury is right now better than Pierre, and still has a pretty solid chance of being a much better player than Pierre.

Jenkins: Pitching to Pujols

Attention geeks that never played the game (this means you Amsinger!)...scroll down for some pitching/life tips by Jenkins

One of the really tired laments of recent years—“Why does anyone pitch to Barry Bonds?—has been resurrected in the case of Albert Pujols. Yo, all you geeks who never played the game: They pitch to Pujols (watch Tim Lincecum tonight) because athletes compete. Will they make terrible mistakes? You bet. Will they regret throwing Pujols a 3-1 fastball when they could have just pitched around him? Absolutely. It’s just that big-league baseball isn’t about quitting, wimping out, taking the easy route. Runners at second and third, one out? Of course you walk Pujols, or Bonds, or Willie McCovey. But when you can change the momentum of a ballgame, making it clear that you and your team matter, you go right after the guy. He’s not hitting .831. He makes outs, a good deal of the time, just like everyone else. Play the game hard, or just quit. And don’t listen to the idiots who, if they had their way, would see not a single strike thrown to Pujols all year . . .

S.I.: Posnanski: Talkin’ about the age-33 falloff phenomenon, with Bill James

Shot at age 33? Definitely, in Ray Vitte’s case.

Joe: This amazes me… you know from 1983 to 1990, Alan Trammell put up a 124 OPS+. Over those same eight years, Cal Ripken Jr. put up an OPS+ of ... yes, 124. I personally believe Trammell is a Hall of Famer, but I don’t think he will get elected and the reason seems to be that he never played a full season after age 32.

Bill: Maturity in a player is the development of talents; not the development of NEW talents, but the development of those talents that the player has always possessed.

Aging is a narrowing of talents, and the narrowing of talents begins long before the player reaches the major leagues. Players, as they age, don’t run as well, don’t throw as well. They continue to develop those talents that they have, but the range of talents continues to narrow. What I’m trying to get to ... I don’t think that “maturing” as a player is one thing and “aging” is a different thing. I think it is one continuous process, that helps the player up to some point, and hurts him beyond that point.

Joe: You will hear players say, all the time, “I wish I knew then what I know now.” There’s no doubt that David Ortiz is a smarter hitter now than he ever was. No question that Alex Rodriguez knows more about how pitchers are trying to get him out now. No question that Lance Berkman knows more about the game than he did at 26 when he mashed 42 homers and drove in 128 runs.

That’s the cruelty of 33 for so many players ... and every player eventually hits that age. The brain is sharper than ever, but the body can’t quite get them there.

Bill: It’s like baking bread, or cooking an omelet. The baking of the bread helps the bread up to a point, and then, if you leave the bread in the oven beyond that point, the same things continue to happen, only they don’t HELP the bread any more; they begin to ruin the bread.

Amazin’ Avenue: UZR Hates The Mets Outfield

Ooh, baby, ooh-ee
It’s that million dollar bosch

The Mets have the 2nd worst Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) in baseball, at -20.1 runs.  Only the embarrassing Nationals measure out worse.  This number jumps off the page because the Omar Minaya Mets have been strong defensively.  They were worth +27.1, +6.8, and +9.8 defensive runs in 2008, 2007, and 2006, respectively. Team ERA outperformed team FIP in each of these seasons, consistent with a team that plays above average defense.  We’ve seen that UZR correlates decently with FIP-ERA.  Based on how poorly UZR rates Mets defense this year, one would expect team ERA to underperform team FIP.  This is not the case, as ERA is once again better than FIP by 0.11.  Compare to the Nationals, whose ERA is worse than their FIP by 0.52.  It’s always prudent to seek another opinion on defense statistics, so I looked at plus/minus (+/-) and Revised Zone Rating (RZR) to maybe figure out what the heck is going on here.

...The disparity between UZR and RZR regarding outfielders once again stands out.  R.J. Anderson noted at Fangraphs that UZR is still using Shea Stadium park factors for its calculations.  He proposed that this might be having an effect on Carlos Beltran’s poor UZR this season, but ultimately decided that such a small sample isn’t enough to make any conclusions.  Still, the 4 players who have played the most outfield innings for the Mets this season all rate worse per UZR than +/-.  It would be useful if a home/away UZR breakdown was available at Fangraphs, but it isn’t (yet).  Also useful would be an analysis of these stats for all team’s outfields to provide some context, but teamwide +/- data is not readily available.

Defense stats are inexact but always improving.  I agree with R.J. that less than half a season’s data is not much to go on either.  However, it might be wise to take Mets OF UZR with an even larger grain of salt than usual, atleast until Citi Field park factors are used in its calculation.

Memories of Kevin Malone: Guillermo Mota’s new self real or fake?

Mota’s current ERA (4.36) and WHIP (1.39) are very similar to the numbers he has posted in the past 4 years. Furthermore, his FIP of 4.54 is nearly identical to his past 2 seasons. So while Mota was never as bad as he was at the start of the season, he’s certainly not as a good he has recently shown either.

When I went looking for signs of improvement, I found it hard to find legitimate reasons. Mota’s release points have been consistent throughout the year, his fastball was thrown harder at the beginning of the year, and his slider was sharper before the resurgence as well. However, I did find a more legitimate and quantifiable reason for his improvement: a plummeting Leverage Index. In other words, he’s being used in situations that hardly affect the outcome of the game at all.

Last year with the Brewers, Mota’s Leverage Index was 1.33, this year it’s a mere 0.70, which is in the bottom 20 of all qualified relievers in the majors. If a quick peek at the Leverage Index play log isn’t enough to convince you that this matters, then consider that his OPS against in low leverage situations (.679) is almost half of what it is in high leverage situations (1.211), so it’s pretty obvious that Mota has benefited from the unimportant situations he has been thrown into.

OC Register: Chone Smith Can See The Future

Forget Miss Clio… Call CHONE now!

SAM MILLER/OCR: Before I go to some players outperforming or underperforming projections, though, this is quoting you… you were asked which Angel could collapse, which would break out: “If I have to pick one maybe Howie Kendrick. I’m worried about the injuries and inability to lay off the slider outside stalling his development. With his lack of patience, he has to hit .300 to be an asset, .270 would be a disaster. … Weaver will take the step forward to become an ace, like Lackey, Santana, and Saunders have before him. My projections see him as the equal to Lackey and Santana.” You’re a witch!!!

Chone Smith: That looks pretty good. But I take no pleasure in Kendrick’s struggles.

SAM MILLER/OCR: Do you think our projections will get any better, or have we reached the limit of what we can feed into them?
Chone Smith: I thought they had reached some kind of limit, and actually hoped that I’d have a stable system so I could focus on other projects, but there is a lot more I can do. David Wright has taught me that in the past week. (Editor’s note: Wright has an unheard of batting average on balls in play this year, so he’s hitting for high average despite setting new personal highs in strikeouts and lows in home runs.)

The developer of the CHONE projection system, Sean Smith, on his way to fame and fortune. Or at least fame.

THT: Jensen: Using HITf/x to measure skill

Ever watch a ballgame and see three fielders converge on a pop fly before it ends up dropping for a base hit? Did you think that batter didn’t deserve a hit? Or perhaps the second baseman dove to the shortstop side of second base to catch a screaming line drive and your first thought was “that hitter was robbed.” Well HITf/x was designed for you. Because we now can have measures of a hitter’s or a pitcher’s ability based not on the vagaries of the plays that the fielders did or did not make, but on the quality of the batter’s hit ball.

HITf/x is the future. Now it’s here.

Memories of Kevin Malone: Kershaw’s personal catcher

The same trend holds true for every pitcher in the starting rotation except one: Clayton Kershaw. While he has been solid with Martin behind the dish (.693), Kershaw has been almost untouchable throwing to Ausmus (.379). In fact, he is yet to give up a run with Ausmus as his receiver.

Granted, this entire post has sample size problems, but it’s something worth considering. Besides, it seems like Martin could use the rest.

THT: Jaffe: The 10 worst lineups ever no-hit

Includes sweet Schneck/dreck drop.

2. Bill Stoneman vs. the New York Mets, October 2, 1972.

Remember how the 1981 Jays had the worst batting average of any team in the last 37 years? Well, the 1972 Mets were the team from 37 years ago with an even worse batting average: .225. Here’s their lineup on Bill Stoneman’s big day:

Name	          Avg
Barnes, 2B	0.236
Fregosi, 3B	0.232
Milner, LF	0.238
Kranepool, 1B   0.269
Sudakis, C	0.143
Schneck, CF	0.187
Hahn, RF	0.162
Martinez, T, SS	0.224
McAndrew, P	0.047
  

What dreck.

Please note that not only does Ed Kranepool possess the above lineup’s best batting average, but he has a lead of over 30 points on anyone else. That should never happen. I don’t care if Kranepool is the Mets’ franchise all-time leader in career games played, at-bats, plate appearances, doubles, hits, singles, and total bases, there’s still no excuse for having a lineup where no one’s within 30 points of him.

Bleacher Report:  Is Luke Hochevar a Bust?

Hochevar’s started 30 major league games and thrown 180 innings: roughly one full season. In that time, he’s posted a 5.35 ERA and struck out only 93 batters. Neither mark is very good.

Naturally, performance like that falls well short of the No. 1 overall pick hype.

So Hochevar gets the “bust” tag, right?

Not so fast.

First, Hochevar’s been unlucky thus far. His miserable 62.4 percent strand rate is far below the league average and should regress to the mean, which is about 10 percent higher.

His career 4.62 FIP is much better than the ugly 5.35 ERA, and pegs him as a decent fifth starter in the majors.

While Hochevar hasn’t picked up many K’s, he does a good job limiting walks (just 3.2 BB/9) and homers (.9 HR/9). Batters find it difficult to lift his pitches (53.5 GB%) and they also struggle to hit liners (15.7 LD%).

Really, the only thing Hochevar doesn’t do well is strike out hitters. And given his groundball tendencies, that’s okay. Aaron Cook, Chien-Ming Wang, Jake Westbrook, and Roy Halladay have similar tendencies, and all four have carved out nice careers.

Baseball Musings: Pinto: Streaking Suzuki

Ichrio more than made up for it with his bat, however. He doubled and scored a run to extend his hit streak to 10 games. Impressively, his last seven games have all produced multiple hits, bring his batting average up to .375. The AL batting race is setting up to be a classic, with both Joe Mauer and Ichiro producing very high averages.

Since Ichrio came into the season with a higher career batting average than Mauer, .331 to .317, we should start watching Ichrio’s chance of hitting .400 as well. Like Joe, Ichiro missed some time at the start of the season, so we’ll also chart two probabilities, one for 162 games, one for 154 games.

Andy Roddick Wins 3rd Round Match at Wimbledon, Gets Question About Bill James

The transcript does not do the questioner’s rambling effort justice and Roddick was more polite and less obviously flummoxed than I would have been

Q. In baseball over the past decade or so with Bill James, a whole bunch of stats like batting average, win/loss record have sort of been undermined a little bit. Do you think there are any stats in tennis that are not so useful, or should there be any changes in the field of stats?

ANDY RODDICK: Not so useful?

Q. Yes.

ANDY RODDICK: No, not really. I mean, I feel like pretty much ‑‑ I mean, I don’t know how specific you’re getting with that question. But I feel like, you know, the normal ones that they show, you know, this, that and the other, I think, you know, they pretty much tell the story of the match most times.

Kurkjian: Today’s players exceeding the 100-strikeout mark more than ever before

K as in ʞurkjian.

Forty years ago, there were 11.55 strikeouts per game. Thirty years ago, it dipped to 9.55 strikeouts per game. But in 1989, it rose to 11.23, then to 12.02 in 1999. This year, the rate is 13.63 strikeouts per game. In part this is a function of today’s swing-as-hard-as-you-can-in-case-you-hit-it mentality. Hitters today are hacking the same on 0-2 as they are on 3-0 because the game has become so tolerant of strikeouts.

“The old-time players with tell you to choke up with two strikes and put the ball in play,’’ said Red Sox manager Terry Francona. “But almost everyone in the game today can hit the ball out. The ball is harder, bats are lighter, guys are bigger, ballparks are smaller. The game has changed.’’

...Adam Dunn is a perfect example of today’s hitter. He is in his ninth season, and he has, by a healthy margin, more strikeouts than Williams and DiMaggio combined. But he also has a career on-base percentage of nearly .400 thanks to all his walks.

In 2004, he walked 108 times, but struck out 195 times. Of those, 72 were called third strikes, which means he struck out more times looking that season than Williams struck out—looking or swinging—in any season.

“It would be a lot harder to take if I didn’t get on base a lot,’’ Dunn said. “If I went to the plate and swung at the first three pitches every at-bat, I would not strike out at all, but I wouldn’t be helping my team win, either. I’ve tried to be more aggressive early in the count and eliminate strikeouts, but that didn’t go too well, either. I guess you are who you are.’’

Cockcroft: Citi Field is costing the New York Mets—and their opponents—home runs in 2009

It’s a musgraveyard for flyballs!

According to Rybarczyk, the most significant change in ballpark effect by the Mets’ switching from Shea Stadium to Citi Field this season has been in terms of home-run production. In the first 37 games of Citi Field’s existence, the Mets and their opponents have been “robbed” of a combined 36 home runs that might have cleared the fences at Shea. Compare that to only two home runs—both hit by fellow fantasy first-rounder Chase Utley of the Phillies—hit at the Mets’ new home that would not have been round-trippers at Shea, and you’re talking a staggering difference in ballpark factors.

So what’s causing such a dramatic effect? Rybarczyk illustrates the vast difference in outfield dimensions between Shea and Citi Field in the diagram to the right. But it’s more than that. As he adds: “Keep in mind that the fences at Citi Field are considerably taller than those at Shea Stadium, and that for a typical home run ball, each additional foot of fence height is equivalent to moving the same height fence back by 0.84 feet. So, the 16-foot fence in left field at Citi Field is not only much deeper than the left-field fence at Shea Stadium, it is 8 feet taller, which equates to about another 6 feet of distance.”

Baggarly: Rowand’s UZR is sharp

Scroll down for Baggarly’s Broken Eyes (pretty sure I saw them on a Kimchibilly Night at DGBD poster once)

Aaron Rowand made two more nice catches in center field Friday night, including a diving play on a shallow fly ball. I profiled Rowand’s improved defense in an off-day feature story.

In the story, I made reference to relatively new fielding metrics. But I ultimately decided not to use them in the story. It’s just too cumbersome to use statistics that are alien to the general populace. You’ve got to explain the basic methodology and what they really mean, and it’s hard to do that in a way that isn’t cumbersome – especially with column inches at a premium.

Besides, I don’t believe there’s any reliable measure yet to analyze defensive skill. Fred Lewis might have an impressive 9.5 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) for his career in left field, but you can’t tell me he’s a good left fielder. The problem must be in the methodology, because my eyes sure aren’t broken. (The stat combines several measures, most notably the difference between expected outs and outs recorded.)

...This season, Rowand’s UZR is on the plus side at 0.9. That doesn’t mean he’s league average, though, because zero isn’t necessarily the midpoint. In fact, only 10 qualified CFs are currently on the plus side, so you could argue that Rowand is back to being slightly above average.

Over the line, Smokey!: Kershaw watch, part 2

Koufax as of 10/15/57, age 21y 9mo, Kershaw as of 6/26/09, age 21y 3mo.

Koufax IP 205.2 W 09 L 10 H 182 ER 91 K 182 BB 108
KershawIP 190.1 W 10 L 10 H 171 ER 85 K 183 BB 99

Koufax ERA=3.99, WHIP=1.41, K/9 innings=8.0
KershawERA=4.01, WHIP=1.42, K/9 innings=8.7

If you don’t think that’s spooky, you’re not paying attention.

In other Dodgers news, Cory Wade was optioned to Triple-A to allow Eric Milton to start on Sat.

Fangraphs: Eric Seidman: Perplexed About Lee

With the Indians tanking and Lee’s value likely higher than it ever will be, it makes sense for Shapiro to kick the tires on a potential deal netting him prospects, but for some reason, more rumors and trade talks have involved guys like Marquis, who is actually making almost double Lee’s salary this year, and is a free agent at the end of the season with no option on which to hang his head. I am honestly perplexed as to why Lee has not attracted more attention; or if he has, why we have not heard about it yet. It is almost as if teams are still waiting for the massive regression to occur, when we now have a year and a half of awesomeness from the Indians lefty proving his worth.

Since the beginning of last season, Lee has thrown 334.1 innings over 47 starts, with a 2.67 ERA almost matched by an equally low FIP, a 1.17 WHIP, a sub-2.0 walk rate, and a 4.2 K/BB ratio. The only thing missing is the reputation that usually accompanies the name of a pitcher with numbers like that over an extended period of time. It is time to start realizing that Cliff Lee has become a very good pitcher, not a back of the rotation upgrade. If any of the Phillies, Brewers or Rangers is serious about solidifying their rotation by trading a young stud prospect, they should start amping up efforts to acquire Lee. He might not win the Cy Young Award again, but given his contract and current established level of performance, as well as the lack of health issues, no other pitcher being discussed as a trade target would be a more significant upgrade.

Main reason why people aren’t trumping Cliff Lee as possible trade bait. People still think he’s a fluke.

Fangraphs: One Win Curveballs

So far this year Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright and Javier Vazquez have each provided a win’s worth of value with their curveballs alone. They have saved over ten runs with their curveballs. On the other end of the spectrum is Brad Penny, whose curveball has cost the Red Sox about a win (9.4 runs).

An awesome piece of work using PitchF/X data on curveballs.  The comments section includes further elaboration of the methods and assumptions.

Dave Cameron: Juan Pierre Is Not Hot

And it’s true, Pierre’s performed admirably well - his .327/.384/.424 line while playing quality defense in left field adds up +1.5 WAR in 240 plate appearances, or about a +3.75 win pace over a full season. If he played that well all the time, he’d actually be worth his contract.

But, of course, Pierre doesn’t play that well with any kind of consistency. And he hasn’t sustained that kind of pace this year, either. Here’s his 2009 season, broken into two chunks.

April 8 - May 28: 133 PA, .407/.470/.542
May 29 - June 24: 107 PA, .232/.276/.283

The first half of Pierre’s season, he hit like a Hall of Fame candidate. In addition to his usual batch of singles, he had 13 extra base hits and drew more walks (12) than strikeouts (10). It was a tremendous stretch of hitting for anyone, much less a guy with a checkered track record like Pierre.

The more recent chunk, however, is more what we’re used to seeing from the guy. No power, few walks (just four, compared with 10 strikeouts), and the ball has stopped finding holes. For the last month, he’s been a sinkhole, making outs in bunches and doing little to nothing to help the Dodgers win.

Beyond the Boxscore: Moore: Jay Bruce and Balls in Play

That’s Moore Jay Bruce Balls in Play, not More Jay Bruce Balls in Play...because that would be unpossible.

Jay Bruce’s contribution to this team has certainly been significant.  His contributions total to 1.4 wins above replacement so far, which is roughly .5 wins above average, and over 600 plate appearances this production would total 3.1 wins.

However, Bruce’s reputation as a prospect was as an elite hitter.  Bruce’s contributions this year have been almost completely with the glove, posting a +7.9 UZR in RF.  His hitting has been merely average, with his .332 wOBA resulting in an insignificant total runs below average.  Bruce put up a similar .328 wOBA in 452 PAs (180 more than his current 2009 total of 272).  Common to both of his lines is a low BABIP on fly balls and line drives.  Thanks to a 21.1% line drive rate, despite a LD BABIP lower than the NL average by 29 points and a FB BABIP lower than the NL average by a whopping 56 points (39% of the NL BABIP), Bruce still maintained a .298 BABIP.  Unfortunately for Bruce and the Reds, his line drive rate fell precipitously to 13.8% this year, and, unbelievably, so did his BABIPs on fly balls and line drive.  A ridiculously low .560 BABIP on LDs and and unfathomable .025 FB BABIP have led to an overall BABIP of .205 through June 22nd.

...Bruce’s BABIP woes, however they’re caused, have removed over a win from his value in 728 PAs.  In fact, considering Bruce’s 0.5 WAR last year and 1.4 WAR this year, Bruce’s results on balls in play are reducing his value by nearly a third to a half.  Personally, I would be interested in seeing some Hit F/X analysis on this issue, but I don’t have access to the data.  Hopefully for Reds fans, it’s merely a case of bad luck.  Despite Bruce’s 2008 looking decent by overall BABIP, he still lost a lion’s share of value from below average LD and FB BABIP.  His value going forward could depend on it improving, not to mention the Reds playoff chances.