DRaysBay: Slowinski: What To Do With Andy Sonnanstine?

Well...the Axe skin contact ad is a good place to start.

Nothing seems to come easily for Andy Sonnanstine.  His fastball barely tops 87 and he’s forced to get by on mixing pitches and superb control, which is not a way to earn the benefit of the doubt from fans or scouts.  The fastball-throwing, strikeout machines are by far sexier and catch your eye easily, which is why players like Daniel Cabrera get chance after chance after chance, while players like Sonnanstine have to force their way onto the scene.  I know the term has garnered a very negative connotation among the sabremetric community, but pitchers like Andy Sonnanstine and Brian Bannister are real “scrappy” pitchers...and I don’t mean that as a bad thing in this case.

...A finesse pitcher, Sonnanstine saw his BB/9 rate skyrocket this past year, going from 1.72 to 3.07.  He was unlucky (13.9% FB/HR; 58.4% LOB; .336 BABIP), but he still was far from the pitcher that we saw in 2008.  Now, with Jeff Niemann and David Price firmly entrenched in the rotation and Wade Davis poised to take over the 5th spot, we’re left with the question: what to do with Sonny?

NY Times: Putting the Negro Leagues in Play

The Strat-O-Matic Game Company, an old warhorse in an age of computer-driven fantasy leagues and high-tech video games, usually relies on detailed statistics to create ratings and tendencies for hitters and pitchers. But in creating a new 103-card Negro leagues set for its board game, Strat-O-Matic found that the data was not easy to come by.

Coverage of Negro leagues games was spotty, especially because many black newspapers were weeklies. Although stories abound about Josh Gibson’s prowess or Satchel Paige’s wizardry, much of what has been handed down borders on folklore.

Yet Hal Richman, who founded Strat-O-Matic in 1961, was determined.

“I’ve wanted to do this for a long time,” he said. “It’s a part of baseball history that has to be represented.”

Was Watching: Was Johnny Damon Better In Boston Or New York?

Röyksopping from one city to another to another to…

The numbers are pretty close here. In slightly less PA as a member of the Yankees, Damon has posted slightly better numbers in terms of RCAA, OWP, RC/G, and BPA (compared to when he was a member of the Red Sox). And, Johnny has one ring with each team – where he had a big post-season moment contributing towards it.

On the whole, I would say that Johnny Damon’s “time” in New York was just as good as it was while he was in Boston. His production was the same, and, in each stop, he was on one World Series championship team (during the four years he was there).

So, when you retrospectively think “Johnny Damon,” and assuming you don’t consider him to be a “Kansas City Royal” or “Oakland Athletic” (although I doubt anyone who consider the latter), should you first see him as a “Red Sox” or as a “Yankee”? Perhaps it depends on which side of the Boston/New York fence that you sit on? But, in any event, you cannot say that Damon’s career in Boston was better than it was (through 2009) in New York.

Johnny Damon’s “mark” in both towns was pretty much exactly the same.

Bradley: With Hudson back, should Hanson become a closer?

or...With Bisher leaving, should Bradley go with him?

I’m just throwing it out there, OK? So don’t all scream at once. (If you do choose to scream, please take turns.) So here goes:

With the re-signing of Tim Hudson, the Braves have six starting pitchers under contract for 2010. The baseball truism holds that a team can never have too much pitching, but this one just might. The obvious solution would be to make Kenshin Kawakami a reliever, except for a couple of things: He makes too much money (around $8 million) to slot into middle relief and he generates too many baserunners to close. So …. what about this?

Tommy Hanson as closer.

I know, I know. Would any organization in its right mind redeploy its best pitching prospect in a generation so soon? And the answer would ordinarily be a resounding “Heck, no!’ Except that one organization has done pretty well with a redeployed starter as its closer.

The organization: The Boston Red Sox. The starter-turned-closer: Jonathan Papelbon.

Thanks much to the relief of Tyler Hissey.

The Colgate Maroon-News: The Myth of the Clutch Derek Jeter

Who knew Colgate University even had Stonemasonry 101!

Jeter is a career .317 hitter in the regular season. Any statistic that can be argued as an indicator of clutch shows Jeter does worse than his career average. Jeter is a career .317 hitter with runners on base and he is a .308 hitter with runners in scoring position. He has a .295 batting average after the seventh inning in either a tie or one-run game and, in the postseason, Jeter is a .310 hitter (he holds the record for most postseason games played). What do all these statistics mean? Simply, in clutch situations, Jeter’s statistical performance is no different than in non-clutch situations.

If Jeter is not statistically clutch, this begs the question can any player have an innate ability to repeatedly perform above his talent level in high-pressure situations?

Dozens of studies make a strong case against clutch hitting as a skill. These studies hold that there is no statistical evidence to prove that certain players rise to the occasion in clutch situations with any consistency. For example, a 1993 study by statistician David Grabiner, found that “the correlation between past and current clutch performance is .01, with a standard deviation of .07. In other words, there isn’t a significant ability in clutch hitting; if there were, the same players would be good clutch hitters every year.”

Kannengieser: Pitching, Speed and Defense Win Championships, Right?

BULLETIN: Plesac goinks eye...Société Bic international medical team has been alerted. We repeat...has been alerted.

Yankees 2009 team numbers, with MLB rank in parentheses:

Pitching
ERA: 4.28 (11th)
FIP: 4.32 (13th)

Baserunning
Stolen Bases: 111 (11th)
EqBRR: -6.4 (20th)

Defense
UZR: -17.6 (19th)
PADE: -0.39 (13th)

Hmm, not overly impressive.  Let's look at some batting numbers:
wOBA: .366 (1st)
OBP: .362 (1st)
SLG: .478 (1st)

The goal is to score more runs than you allow.  Hitting, pitching, defense and baserunning are all factors in this run scoring/prevention balance.  The Yankees had the 2nd best run differential in baseball this season and they did it without the benefit of great pitching or above average defense.  Home runs are not evil and pitching alone does not win championships.

NYT: Forman: Pettitte Falls Short for the Hall of Fame

Mikey...this guy oughta go to that Baseball-Referendum site and get his facts straight!

Beyond those two items, Pettitte’s candidacy starts to unravel. His 3.91 earned run average would be the worst in the Hall of Fame. He did pitch in a hitters’ era, but we can account for that with a stat called ERA+, which is the park-adjusted league average E.R.A. divided by the pitcher’s E.R.A. times 100. In measuring ERA+, 100 is a league-average pitcher, above 100 is better than average and below 100 worse than average. Pettitte’s 116 ERA+ does match up with Hall of Famers like Jim Bunning (114), Robin Roberts (114) and Waite Hoyt (111), but he would still be in the bottom 10 to 20 of all Hall of Fame pitchers, and most of the pitchers with comparable numbers either have a much better peak or many more innings pitched (ERA+ of all Hall of Fame Pitchers.)

Pettitte’s Cy Young and All-Star résumé is thin for a Hall of Fame pitcher as well. His two All-Star Game appearances would tie him with Satchel Paige for dead last among postwar Hall of Fame pitchers. Pettitte did nearly win the 1996 Cy Young Award receiving 11 out of 28 first place votes, but after his sophomore season he never again cracked the top three in Cy Young voting. His 11 first-place votes would place him close to the bottom among Hall of Fame pitchers who competed for Cy Young awards.

Pettitte also lacks what Bill James called black ink — league-leading totals in important categories like earned run average or wins. In 1996, he led the American League in wins, but beyond that he has never led the league in an important category, finishing in the top 10 in E.R.A. only three times and innings pitched just twice. It wasn’t so much that he was injury-prone (five games started top tens), but he never was good enough to work deep into games and rack up a lot of innings.

Walk Like a Sabermetrician: Statistical Meanderings 2009

Heavier than a Doctor Teeeth gig...it’s Patriot’s year end statistical wrap up!

* If there’s anyone who should feel fortunate about the myriad of problems encountered by the Mets, it should be Francisco Rodriguez. Rodriguez’ 2009 performance was lost in the avalanche of injuries and despair, but it was not impressive--in fact, without a (deserved) allowance for his work with inherited runners, his RA was higher than the league average (for all pitchers, not just relievers). He was 35/42 in save situations, which is not terrible but nothing to write home about, and his WPA was -.45. A performance like that coupled with a Mets team in contention would have been a made-to-order storyline.

* David Ortiz managed 5.1 RG and +14 RAR this year; Travis Hafner was at 5.9 and +16. Just three years ago, those two ran two-three in the AL, each over 70 RAR. As career DHs with big contracts in their early-to-mid thirties (and fun nicknames that start with p), they make an obvious pairing. Hafner hit better this season, but Ortiz was better in 2008 and Hafner’s shoulder is a recurring issue. I wouldn’t want either of their contracts, but I think I’d rather have Ortiz going forward on the field--but it’s close.

* Kansas City boasted four of the bottom thirteen AL hitters in terms of RAR (all four had <= 0 RAR). These four combined for 1,730 PA, creating 172 runs whilst making 1,231 outs. They had a combined RG of 3.6, -76 RAA, and -9 RAR.

In fairness, that includes Yuniesky Betancourt's performance in Seattle--the Royals themselves "only" invested 1,496 PA between the four. The other three were Willie Bloomquist, Jose Guillen, and Mike Jacobs. What is really sad about this is that all of them were recent acquisitions from outside the organization: Betancourt in a mid-season trade, Bloomquist and Guillen as free agents, and Jacobs in an off-season trade. Their 2009 salaries totaled nearly $19M. Good work, Dayton.

Tigers manager Jim Leyland retains title as intentional walk king

We hope that you will consider IBB your Correspondent of Choice! (or close your account)

Tigers manager Jim Leyland called 21 fewer intentional walks in 2009 after leading all managers with 63 in 2008, according to John Dewan, owner of Baseball Info Solutions, which publishes “The Bill James Handbook” on statistics. The 2010 version is now available.

Dewan said that of Leyland’s 63 intentional walks in 2008, 26 “resulted in a bad outcome.”

“Both numbers (2008-09) were league-leading numbers,” Dewan said. “This season, Leyland had 42 intentional walks, 26 were good, 16 were no good, and six were bombs. A bomb is where an inning just blew up and multiple runs were scored.”

Dewan said Leyland’s 42 intentional walks ranked well above the American League average of 28 per manager.

“He had 26 good ones, and the average manager had 15, so he actually had a pretty good season,” Dewan said. “In my book, I think he still calls for it too often.

WSJ: Biderman: Best Second Baseman Ever? Utley Makes a Case

ZOOOOOM!...Moving quicker to the top than Jax Teller!

Given that the New York Yankees are soaking up all the World Series oxygen, it’s no wonder Philadelphia’s Chase Utley isn’t getting heaps of praise. But here’s something to ponder while watching Game 6: Mr. Utley may be the best second baseman in baseball. Ever.

Mr. Utley, whose two home runs and four RBIs on Monday kept the Phillies’ season alive, has numbers that make his colleagues drool. He’s already recorded three seasons with at least 30 home runs, tied for the most ever by a second baseman, and his career .902 on-base plus slugging percentage—a statistic that combines power with the ability to get on base—is better than that of Jackie Robinson and second only to Rogers Hornsby—both baseball immortals.

And in case you were wondering, Mr. Utley’s not bad with his glove. Using a combination of “range factor” and “UZR,” statistics that quantify defensive range and overall contributions compared to an average player, Mr. Utley has been the best second baseman in the majors the past three seasons.

Certainly, Mr. Hornsby, Eddie Collins or Joe Morgan, all Hall of Fame second basemen, might have a bone to pick. But Mr. Utley, 30, is on pace to have more hits than Mr. Morgan’s 2,517, he’s got infinitely more power than Mr. Collins—who, admittedly, played in a very different era—and is a better defender than Mr. Hornsby.

True Blue L.A.: Better Luck Next Year, Clayton

Starting pitchers had a game score of 79 or better in 159 games this season, or 3.3% of all games.  Those pitchers were 140-3 in those games, with just 16 no-decisions.  Kershaw had three of those no-decisions.  No other pitcher in baseball had more than one.

If we lower the threshold to a game score of 70 or better—which accounts for the top 11.4% of all MLB starts in 2009—Kershaw had 10 of those games, the same number as CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander.  Only four pitchers had more starts with a game score of 70 or higher.  Here are Kershaw’s numbers in those 10 starts:

IP H R BB/9 K/9 ERA FIP BA/OBP/SLG W-L No-Dec
69.0 28 4 2.87 10.43 0.52 2.16 .125/.206/.174 4-0 6

Those six no-decisions led baseball.  Tim Lincecum was second, with four.  The point is that Kershaw didn’t have a relatively low win total just because he wasn’t able to pitch deep into games.  He pitched great often enough, but just didn’t get rewarded as much as he should have.

Here’s hoping for better luck next year, kid.

The Fielding Bible Awards: The 2009 Awards

Third Base – Ryan Zimmerman, Washington
Third base is a very strong, deep defensive poistion in baseball right now. I would be comfortable with any of the top nine guys in our voting winning The Fielding Bible Award—or the Gold Glove award, for that matter—this year. Ryan Zimmerman has broken out of the pack in my estimation, however, by becoming the Defensive Runs Saved leader at third base over the last three years. His first Fielding Bible Award is well deserved. The rest of the best: Adrian Beltre, Chone Figgins, Evan Longoria, Scott Rolen, Brandon Inge, Pedro Feliz, Jack Hannahan and Joe Crede.

Shortstop – Jack Wilson, Pittsburgh and Seattle
Wilson won’t win a Gold Glove this year. Just like Mark Teixeira didn’t win one last year. He split time between leagues, and the Gold Glove voters don’t know which league to put him in. Not so with The Fielding Bible Awards. Jack Wilson was the best shortstop in baseball last year. Period. We don’t care which league he played in. He led all shortstops in Run Saved by a wide margin (27 runs saved to Brendan Ryan’s 19) and has taken over the MLB lead for most Runs Saved over the last three years (51). Mr. Wilson is the Fielding Bible Award winner at shortstop for 2009.

Center Field – Franklin Gutierrez, Seattle
What a story. Gutierrez excelled defensively for two years playing right field for Cleveland. He led all right-fielders in plus/minus in each of 2007 and 2008, despite playing less than 100 games each year. Seattle put a huge emphasis on defense in 2009, and Franklin came through for them with another Fielding Bible Award, this time in center field. His 31 runs saved tied him with Chone Figgins for the most in baseball last year. For outfielders, Carl Crawford’s 23 runs saved was second best to Gutierrez. The Seattle Mariners finished the 2009 season as the best defensive team in baseball, with 109 runs saved as a team.

Thanks to GG Barnald.

Amazin’ Avenue: Page: Why Omar Minaya Failed And What It Means For The Future

On Halloween I went to a party as Ben Baumer. Nobody noticed.

But maybe it is too late for that. As fielding stats get more widely accepted, it seems a glorified Moneyball scenario, where a few teams with superior objective analysis carry an edge, is becoming less likely. As more players, are signing long-term deals with the teams that drafted them, and fewer are hitting free agency, the statistical analysis the Mets have been so neglectful of becomes just the baseline. Indeed, as Jay wrote about some of the most successful teams around the league: “it’s noteworthy that other organizations that have gone with the ‘Ivy League whiz kid’ GM model tend to have a ‘wise old baseball man’ figure hanging close by, advising the gifted non-scout executive. The Red Sox had Bill Lajoie attached to Theo Epstein; Allard Baird is in that role now, while Lajoie is now advising Huntington in Pittsburgh. The Rays put Gerry Hunsicker with Andrew Friedman, and down in Texas, Jon Daniels has access to no less than John Hart and Nolan Ryan.” With that pattern in mind, I was encouraged to read that the Wilpons convinced Sandy Johnson to stay out of retirement, allegedly in preparation for a non-Minaya centric front office.

For similar reasons, these forces will also probably push forward the mythical symbiosis of scouting and statistics that everyone pays lip-service to but isn’t quite sure what they’re referring to. More than just pitchf/x and hitf/x, the observation of both amateur and professional talent will come down to hyper-specific scouting reports that use data and observation to spot trends of growth or deterioration in a player’s skills. And maybe, even then, it will take some “wise old baseball man,” with a special eye for talent, to build the best franchise.

Thoma: Best season by a catcher? Mauer’s really close

The latest Thoma-production…

Mauer had 28 homers, 94 runs, 96 RBIs. Not only did they fall short of the league top 10 (much less the lead), they don’t compare to the numbers Piazza put up routinely in the late ’90s and early ’00s. Piazza in 1997: .362 batting average, .431 OBP, .638 SLG, 40 homers, 124 RBIs, 104 runs. In a pitcher’s park, no less. Comparable batting average and OPB to Mauer this year, far superior SLG and counting stats.

Of course, Piazza’s peak was in the heart of the steroids era, and there were and are rumors about him and performance enhancers. For those who hold steroid users in disdain, any and all numbers from the late 1990s — hitting or pitching — are suspect. Guilty until proven innocent, if only because the innocent among the players allowed the guilty to do as they wished.

Bill James’ win shares stat credits Mauer with 32 win shares — the third time Mauer has topped 30, which, again, is typical only of the very best of players. Catchers almost never lead the league in win shares; Mauer has now done it two years running.

Bench in 1972 had 37 win shares; Piazza in 1997 had 39 — the most ever credited to a Dodger.

Madden: For Yankees’ Joba Chamberlain, World Series shows he’ll stay in bullpen

And (waves Carex brochure wildly)...is Andy Pettitte the new Jack Morris?

In notching his 17th career postseason victory in Game 3 on Saturday night - extending his own record - Andy Pettitte is starting to creep into the Hall of Fame conversation.

“The postseason wins immediately get your attention,” said one veteran scout. “In my opinion, Andy Pettitte is a Hall of Fame pitcher for three reasons: The most wins by any pitcher in the postseason, over 200 wins in the regular season, and lastly because he told the truth.” The latter, of course, is in reference to Pettitte admitting he took HGH in 2002 and 2004 (when he was injured both of those seasons). It remains to be seen how the voting Baseball Writers Association will view Pettitte when his career is over, although he’ll probably need to get to 250 wins (he’s currently 229-135) to really establish himself as a bona fide Hall of Fame candidate. After that, the best comparison would be to Jack Morris, who was 254-186 during the regular season and is acknowledged as one of the greatest postseason pitchers ever (albeit with a much smaller resume), with a 7-4 record and 4-2, 2.96 for the World Series. But because his lifetime ERA of 3.90 would be the highest of any pitcher in the Hall of Fame, Morris has struggled to garner more than 50% support on the ballot with 75% necessary for election. Pettitte’s lifetime ERA is 3.91.

Cafardo has more...

“The postseason numbers are better than anyone who has ever pitched.’’ Buck Martinez said: “Yes, he (Pettitte) should get in, but not before Bert Blyleven and Jack Morris.’’

WEEI: Jason Bay Chat Wrap

Underestimating the Bay.

Jason, where do you stand on the “existence” of clutch hitters? Most stat-geeks (like me) will scream from the mountaintops that they don’t exist. I think they do in that some hitters are able to mentally adjust better than others to the pressure situation at hand (most of the time). What are your thoughts?

Jason Bay: I definitely think that certain guys have the ability to rise up in certain occasions, but it’s very hard to quantify that with a statistic. I think you understand and get a better feel for that just by watching certain players perform. Obviously you aren’t going to get a hit or strike somebody out in every big situation. But if a guy is statistically superior in the statistical “clutch situations,” is he more “clutch” than a guy who doesn’t do much all regular season and wins a handful of playoff games?

Jason, When John Kruk said you have “dank” hands at the plate, was he giving you a compliment or was her being coy?

Jason Bay: Your guess is as good as mine

BDD: McQuown: Rattling the SABR – How Good Will Kershaw Be?

“Jim Nash – who?” Hey, after the Elston Howard/Baseball Donut situation...don’t ask Joe Buck.

Recently, I was involved in a discussion on a Strat-O-Matic forum, centering around Clayton Kershaw. The starting comment which got me involved in the discussion was an implication that he hadn’t “arrived”. I succinctly noted that I thought he had “arrived”. The position seemed to be that many people believe that Kershaw will get better, much better. This centers around 3 facts: a) he’s young, very young; b) his walk rate is higher than you’d like in an “ace” pitcher, and pitchers improve their walk rates; c) he doesn’t pitch deep into games, limiting his number of innings (partly due to a sane amount of caution with a young arm, and partly due to the walks).

...And if you don’t like using ERA to measure pitchers, it’s not like Kershaw was getting hit around and executing magic to extricate himself. Thanks to an absurdly low .282 slugging% allowed, he was 3rd in OPS allowed to Lincecum and Carpenter, with Felix and Greinke the next two (and they were almost certainly more effective, due to the DH in the AL), then Vazquez, who was also probably more effective than OPS credits him, due to having a lower OPS. His sOPS+ (a very underutilized metric, since it park-adjusts the OPS stats against the pitcher – the pitching equivalent of OPS+ for hitters) was 59. For historical context, the guy to whom he’s drawn comparisons – Sandy Koufax – had a “60” sOPS+ in 1966 (his final season: 27-9, 1.73 and a Cy Young Award).

Beyond the Boxscore: Andy Pettitte is Slightly Above Average

You know, John. You can always tell if Andy is on his game by the depths of his Arlington Steward death stare over the glove.

Pettitte displays a small platoon split. For his career, right handed batters have hit .270/.329/.400 against him, while lefties have notched a .271/.318/.393 line. The real difference comes in the number of strikeouts, as he has a 19.2% K rate versus lefties and just a 16.7% mark against righties. Similarly, he walks fewer batters against his fellow southpaws: 5.7% against 7.9% facing righties.

It is interesting the splits have not manifested themselves in the triple-slash line. My guess is that his cutter allows him to induce more ground balls from righties than lefties, counteracting in part the K and BB rates. His GDP rate against righties is 2.8%, while it is just 1.8% against lefties.

Television announcers will no doubt tell you all about how Philadelphia’s lefties struggle against southpaws--but don’t be fooled, Pettitte has plenty of weapons against the right-handed batters as well.

This is Pettitte’s eighth career World Series. His signature stare will once again show up on prime-time television.

The Book Blog: Curtis Granderson’s take on hitters being hot or cold…

Nice find by MGL here...as Michael the K’s whole career thought process just got swiped out by bescrambled yeggs.

We know that Granderson is a smart guy. He was being interviewed on the Dibble and McDonald show on XM radio today.  Dibble, the quintessential talking head, asked Granderson something like:

“After being so hot in the post-season, A-Rod looks a little uncomfortable out there now, going 0 for 8 with 6 K’s in the WS.  Why do you think that is?”

Of course, the Dibble assessment is the usual B.S. (batter goes 5 for 10, he looks confident, comfortable, and locked in - batter goes 0-6, he looks uncomfortable and is “pressing").

Anyway, Granderson, responds with something like this:

“You know, sometimes a hitter just gets a bunch of good pitches to hit and sometimes he doesn’t.”

He then goes on to say:

“And sometime a hitter decides to be aggressive against a certain pitcher and he swings at the first fastball he sees, but the pitcher just happens to hit the corner with that pitch.  Or sometimes the batter decides to be patient and he takes a fastball right down the middle.”

Joe Posnanski Blog: The Jeter Bunt

Which is nothing like The A-Rod Hunt.

And undoubtedly, Jeter believes this himself. That’s the only possible reason he would have tried to bunt with two strikes, even after Girardi called it off. Jeter wants to sacrifice himself there, I think, because he believes sacrifice is a big part of what makes him great and different. Would A-Rod bunt there? Would Miggy Cabrera? Would Manny Ramirez? Would Albert Pujols? No (nor should they). They would not bunt … but Derek Jeter would. Because he is not just a great hitter. No, he’s a guy who would do anything to help the team win.

Trouble is — he IS a great hitter, and hitting is the best way he can help the team win — in that situation and in pretty much every other situation. He should know this. The Yankees should know this. But the Jeter mystique has been blown up to such proportions that it has become its own monster, and monsters need to be fed.

When I saw Derek Jeter foul bunt on strike three like some helpless pitcher, I immediately thought it was one of the five dumbest plays I had ever seen* — and I know I would have felt that way had he gotten the bunt down.

In retrospect though, well, it’s still one of the dumber plays I’ve seen. But I think of it now as more of a case of mistaken identity. After all these years, the Yankees still don’t seem to full understand or appreciate why Derek Jeter is one of the great players his generation. And what’s even stranger is that Jeter may not be entirely sure himself.

Black Jack McDowell: Phillies, an old school team

And Stickfigure was just a goof...as Tom Netherton rulz the riot!

I’m starting to take a closer look at the Phillies and am leaning toward them winning this series.

Baseball has changed over the years.  Now instead of baseball people in charge, we have young business profiled bullshitters who try to come up with statistical anaylsis as a winning method.  That’s why I like the Phillies.

...Think about this...every pitching coach is preaching to his pitchers to “get ahead” yet the new way of hitting is preaching to “see more pitches.” HUH?  Dumb hitters who follow that theory.  Watch Cliff Lee throw the ball over the plate with the majority of his pitches.  He pitches to contact and that is why he he has been dominant.  He is defying the new hitting theory! Heck even Pedro challenged guys with his blazing 88 MPH fastball with inside strikes last night!

Oh well, short series can bring all sorts of outcomes along the way, especially with the umpiring as weak as it is this year.  So anything can happen. But pay attention to the aggressiveness of the Phillies offense. 

Phillies’ Manuel takes issue with McCarver’s game analysis

It’s immoral for old men to send young ballplayers to fight and die while standing on deck!

Phillies manager Charlie Manuel took a veiled shot at Fox broadcaster Tim McCarver on Friday when Manuel was asked again about his decision not to send the two runners on base with one out in the eighth inning of Game 2, when Chase Utley grounded into a 4-6-3 double play against Mariano Rivera.

“I don’t give a damn who’s played 20 years or 50 years and think they know; that’s not the right way to play the game,” Manuel said. “I get upset when somebody asks me that because it’s not baseball.”

...Utley, who had grounded into only five double plays in 620 regular season and postseason at-bats, bounced a full-count pitch to second and was called out at first on Derek Jeter’s relay throw, despite replays showing Utley beat the throw by half a step.

“I didn’t even have to think about that,” Manuel said of not sending the runners on the full-count pitch. “That’s bad baseball if Utley strikes out and Rollins gets thrown out at third base. We’ve got one of the best hitters in baseball standing on deck (Ryan Howard). That’s our game standing right there in front of us.

“We’ve got only five outs left in the game, we’ve got our biggest offensive threat standing at the plate. There’s no way we could afford to make a mistake there. I’ll do that as long as I live.”

Dewan: The Tex-Factor

There was such a heated bargument yesterday over the Tex/Ryan Howard defense kabob...that one of the runners almost forgot to scotch tape the glyco-bags on his arms!

Where was the improvement? Most Yankee fans can pretty much guess: first base. Mark Teixeira stabilized the Yanks’ infield defense. In 2008, Yankee first basemen cost the team 18 runs overall. This year, even in a down year for Teixeira, they improved by 19 runs to one run saved at first base.

One thing to caution you, however. Teixeira is only average when it comes to scoops (saving a bad throw from a fellow infielder). There has been a lot of speculation that Jeter’s and Cano’s improvement on defense this year is because of Teixeira’s ability to handle bad throws. He can make that play, but that was something that Jason Giambi did well defensively for the Yankees last year too.

Overall, we have Teixeira as one of the best first basemen defensively in baseball. Here are the top five first basemen in baseball over the last three years based on Defensive Runs Saved:

Defensive Runs Saved

2007-2009

Albert Pujols, Cardinals 	56
Casey Kotchman, Braves 	        35
Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox 	22
Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays         17
Mark Teixeira, Yankees 	        15
Joey Votto, Reds 	        15

NYT: Forman: Analysis: Phillies Have the Edge on Defense

Or as Sir Forman FB’ed..."Yankees fans are going to kill me for this article, but the numbers are the numbers.”

To explain the chart, Ryan Howard allowed 1.4 fewer runs than the average first baseman because of his defense, while Mark Teixeira allowed 2.4 runs more. This flies in the face of widely held perceptions of the two players — Teixeira is a multiple Gold Glove winner and Howard is, well, not. Howard has improved drastically this year and Teixeira has regressed from previous high levels. Three runs’ difference is small, and Teixeira was much better than Howard last year, so I’m going to chalk this season’s performance up to random variation and an off year for Teixeira defensively (just as off years happen with the bat, they happen with the glove too). About the throwing, the Phillies were second to last with only 12 first baseman assists to second base (the Cardinals led with 38), but the Yankees managed only two more with 14.

Derek Jeter had one of his best defensive years. Nearly every other season of his career he has been below average, often the worst in the league. (I’m not going to discuss Jeter’s defense here or in the comments, but I would refer you to Derek Jeter vs. the Baseball Researchers at Slate for a good rundown.) The three other Phillies infielders range from outstanding (Chase Utley) to good (Jimmy Rollins and Pedro Feliz). The two other Yankees, Robinson Cano and Alex Rodriguez, are both below average.

Over All

All over the field, the Phillies have significant advantages defensively. Unlike in the American League Championship Series, the Yankees will not be able to count on defensive lapses helping them out.

WEEI: Bradford: In Defense of Jason Bay’s Defense

Absolute defense, pled and proven by Superagent Joe Urbon.

“I think the only defensive statistic that I know for sure that is easily measurable is outfield assists and errors committed, and Jason is just the third outfielder in major league history to lead the league in outfield assists while not creating an error all season, the last guy being Carl Yastrzemski,” the agent said. “It used to be that those statistics were enough. In baseball we all need a better evaluation of defensive ability but the defensive metrics we have out there are so debatable, and in most cases proprietary, that it is hard to quantify a player’s ability to play defense.

“Jason Bay is a serviceable outfielder. That’s what we know. We know that Jason bay can play left field. Some will say he’s average, some will say he’s below average. But he’s certainly not a DH or, as someone described him, a hockey goalie out there.”

Urbon is well aware of some of the advanced defensive statistics in which Bay might not measure favorably, such as a “zone rating” that ranked him near the bottom of big league left fielders. But the agent also knows what he has seen and heard from Bay’s teammates, as well as various talent evaluators, and it doesn’t match up with some of the analysis being thrown around of late.

“Without question it takes me by surprise,” Urbon said. “I think it takes most people that see him play on a day-to-day basis, and evaluate players for a living, by surprise. Going back to the metrics, I think that depending on whether or not you use metrics created by one source or another, whether it’s Bill James or John Dewan, if you do take a step back and look you’ll see Jason grades out as an average outfielder in a lot of those categories.”

Greenia: Fixing the Hall of Fame

So this is what Daniel Greenia has been up to…

My focus is on the latter group of players, the guys that the Hall voters are missing. This is towards the larger aim of identifying, prioritizing and publicizing the players who deserve the most attention from the Hall voters. Based upon virtually every survey and advanced metric I’ve seen, I’m convinced there are from 45 to 55 players who are among the top 231 players eligible for the Hall but have not been elected. (Correspondingly, there are then 45 to 55 Hall of Famers who are not among the top 231.)

That’s a lot of players, I think. How can the voters be missing so many guys? A few likely explanations:

* Many voters holding to personal, stricter standards of what “Hall of Famer” means, that leaves room for much less than 231 players.
* Lack of interest. Face it, few among the electorate ever sought to become a voter for the Hall. Filling out a ballot is often a perfunctory act; little thought (and no research time) is invested in the process.
* A general lack of understanding of findings from sabermetric analysis.
* A system of rules that fails to allow for a thorough vetting of candidates, even to the point of giving some strong candidates only one year of eligibility.

Caribbean Net News: Henry: Put greatness in perspective

The big takeover? Jack Rabid is early this year…

Who is calling the shots in baseball?

Baseball has been taken over by statisticians, mathematicians and experts in probabilities. Few people today will remember that during a pennant drive in 1948, Warren Spahn pitched 14 innings for a Braves victory. I wonder in what inning the pitch counters of today would have pulled him out of the game. That same season, Spahn and his teammate Johnny Sain, went 8-0 in just 12 days. Can you imagine any sports agent today letting his client start, pitch and complete four games in 12 days, much less pitch 14 innings in one game?

Few pitchers today ever get to complete games. With today’s ball counters,, Walter Johnson, Cy Young and Spahn would never have completed 1,662 games during their careers. Nolan Ryan would never have credit for seven no-hitters because he too would have been yanked after a certain number of pitches and not allowed to complete a game. Baseball managers today seem to have pitching specialists for every inning – a starter, a mid-reliever, a holder, a closer and others just for extra innings. It is a wonder they don’t have computers and geeks with them in the dugout.

I wonder how Joe Dimaggio, Babe Ruth and Ted Williams ever got a hit without wearing batting gloves, helmets, shin guards, elbow pads, wrist bands and other padded paraphernalia. I don’t remember any of them ever stepping out of the batter’s box after every pitch to adjust their gloves and guards the way many batters do today.

The Trinity Tripod: Hull: Professorship: The Importance of the ‘Intangibles’

I know Jeter is the last of the Holy Trinity of Shortstops...but this am ridiculi!

Take, for example, a professional athlete such as Alex Rodriguez, whose sheer athletic prowess is matched by few. Based on numbers alone, “A-Rod” has been worth every penny of his lofty 25 million dollar salary. But ask any true Yankees fan if A-Rod’s merits match his salary and you’re likely to receive the same impassioned response every time: absolutely not. Why? Because baseball is a complex, nuanced game, based on far more than highlight-reel home runs and awe-inspiring catches. The best players - think Derek Jeter - not only hit home runs and steal bases, but also possess certain key intangibles: namely a passion for their job, humility, and, most importantly, an ability to communicate with their teammates.

The academic equivalent to baseball statistics is research and publication. For, on the surface, these are the best indicators of professional quality and success. But, just as A-Rod’s statistics alone don’t make him a complete player, a professor’s job extends far beyond his or her research.

Believe it or not, the intangibles that an exemplary ball player possesses are strikingly similar to those of an exemplary professor:

...Luckily, at a school like Trinity, such professors are not hard to find. And, as Trinity students, we owe these professors a debt of gratitude, similar to, say, that which Yankees fans will owe Jeter in a week, when his intangibles carry the Yankees to their 27th World Series crown.

WSJ: Stars and Stats Align for the Yankees

Seen my pretty Mallis in every crystal ball
Mallis, Dallas Green Mallis

As the World Series gets under way in New York, we asked an astrologer, a statistician, a Las Vegas oddsmaker, a computer, a former major-league manager and a baseball analyst to predict the outcome of the series. The Yankees are favored from Las Vegas to Mars, but not in Philadelphia.

Sports astrologer Andrea Mallis studied charts and saw positive signs for Yankees manager Joe Girardi and several New York players. Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, who has had an excellent postseason after previous struggles, may win the Most Valuable Player award, she says.

“Mars is in Leo,” says Ms. Mallis, “A-Rod is a Leo. It’s a supercharged time for him.”

Wayne Winston, professor of decision sciences at Indiana University, analyzed the games statistically, looking back at each team’s season with a logistic-regression model. Assuming both teams use a four-man rotation, he concluded that the Yankees have a 65% chance of winning the title. The most likely outcome: New York in six games, which occurred in 21.7% of his simulated series. AccuScore, which uses a computer program that simulates games 10,000 times, says the Yankees will win in seven. Each team was favored to win its home games, but Game 5, featuring CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee (AccuScore assumed Joe Blanton and Chad Gaudin would pitch Game 4), was a virtual wash.

S.I.: Verducci: How do you beat the Yankees? Smoltz has a radical idea

The Smoltz Effect: ~CRACK~ whizzzzzzzzzz ~CRACK~ whizzzzzzzzzz ~CRACK~ whizzzzzzzzzz…

1. As the postseason began, Cardinals pitcher John Smoltz gave me a stunning piece of advice about how to stop the Yankees this October. Remember, it was the powerful New York lineup that knocked Smoltz clear out of the American League and very nearly all the way into retirement with a resounding thumping back in August.

“I’ll tell you what I would do against them,” Smoltz said, “and I know nobody would ever do this. I would treat it like a spring training game with my pitchers. I would keep bringing in a fresh arm to pitch to them, rather than asking my starting pitcher to go deep into the game trying to get them out two, three, four times. They just wear out a pitcher.

“I know nobody would ever do it, because what message would people think you were giving your starting pitcher? But their lineup is so deep I would change pitchers every two or three innings, just like you do in spring training.”

I have to admit that Smoltz’s Spring Training Plan has some merit, if only to prove a point: The Yankees wear out pitchers like no other team in baseball, chiefly because they don’t chase pitches out of the strike zone and they hammer the ones in it. But if there is any team with a profile that resembles that of New York, it is its World Series opponent, the Phillies.