Pitcher Analysis: Craig Hansen

Craig Hansen has so far struggled to put up good numbers in the major leagues, despite only allowing 2 home runs in the minors. A brief statistical analysis of Hansen shows that he was never ready for the majors, and a mechanical breakdown of his delivery raises serious questions about the long-term health of his shoulder/elbow.

Dugout Central: Willie Fraser: Baseball Goings-on

Just because Willie Fraser pitched like wiggly ampulla logs during his second season...doesn’t mean the “Sophomore Slump” actually exists.

The Sophomore Slump is a Real Thing

Even though I wouldn’t say Braun is going through a sophomore slump, I do believe such a phenomenon exists. Why? First, after a full season the league is now aware of what a player can and can’t do. They’re then able to exploit the player’s weaknesses more often. Second, a player having a good rookie season can tend to put too much pressure on himself to meet or exceed his first year results. Teams don’t generally expect much from rookies. But after a good rookie season, they’ll start to count on them, and the players then feel the weight of this expectation. Third, baseball has its own special way of keeping players in check. Once a player thinks he has things figured out, baseball comes up with a new way to beat him.

I personally experienced the sophomore slump. I had a solid first season and then proceeded to go out and get my ass kicked the first half of my second season. I was able to come out of it somewhat in the second half, finishing with a 12-13 record. But at one point I was 7-12 and my ERA was over 6.00. I lead the AL in home runs allowed, with 33.

Pitcher Analysis: Cliff Lee

Driveline Mechanics takes on the statistical and mechanical sides of Indians’ phenom Cliff Lee. Can he keep up this torrid pace? (Probably not, of course. Read the article anyway!)

K.C. Star: Don’t fret over Royals prospect Moustakas

Does Mike Moustakas do little for your Royal enthusiasm? Bradford takes a look.

There is something to always keep in mind when following baseball through statistics: Always consider the numbers within the context in which they were created. This platitude is particularly important when judging the numbers of minor-league players, who play in wildly divergent environments and against variable levels of competition.

When looking at Moustakas, first consider that Burlington is a pitcher’s park in a pitcher’s league, though the Bees’ home isn’t a bad park for home-run hitters. As a whole, Midwest League batters are hitting .247, and the league ERA is 3.56. All of the towns in the league are in cold-weather regions, which probably suppressed offense during the first month. This would have been particularly difficult for Moustakas, who hails from sunny southern California.

Age is probably the most important factor when evaluating prospects. Moustakas, 19, is the only position player on the Bees under 20. There are 20 or so batters in the league that young, and 10 of them have posted a better OPS (on-base plus slugging). Not great. Not terrible.

...Look, I’m not trying to convince you that .223 is a good batting average in any environment. It’s not. But don’t let yourself get too worked up because of five weeks of a performance that, when judged in context, is nothing to really be alarmed about.

THT: Is Clayton Kershaw Worth the Hype?

Breaking down the mechanics, injury risk, stuff, and numbers of Clayton Kershaw…

“Clayton Kershaw’s curveball scares children”

“Clayton Kershaw’s curveball is public enemy number one”

“Clayton Kershaw is straight filth”

Just a couple of the high heaps of praise that surround Dodgers pitching prospect Clayton Kershaw, known by many to be the best pitching prospect in all of baseball.

I suppose one is worthy of such praise when his curveball looks like this…

Q + W Jeff Luhnow

Pete Kozma wasn’t considered to be a “sexy” pick at the time he was drafted. A lot of different media outlets said that while he had solid tools across the board, other then power, he possessed no real standout tool. Yet so far Pete has been played extremely well. Are you surprised at how well Pete’s performed early?

If we wanted a “sexy” pick, we would read Baseball America, read Keith Law’s articles, and pick based on their opinions. But we don’t, and neither do any other clubs, because while the journalists are doing a good job of expressing their opinions based on the information they have, we have to live and die with our selections and the future of the organization is impacted by these picks. If the journalist is wrong, he just admits it (maybe) and keeps writing about the next guy or the next draft. They will still sell papers or get eyeballs. If we are wrong, we’ve missed a huge opportunity to make our organization better, and nobody wants to do that.

Pete’s performance is not a surprise to me or to our scouts. I’m happy he is doing well and I sure hope and expect he will keep it up. I know he will have his rough patches as he goes through our system, everybody except Albert does. By the way, a player with average tools across the board who plays a premium position is incredibly valuable! When we as scouts say “average”, we mean average at the major league level. Theoretically, he would be in the top 15 shortstops at the major league level if that were true. Those players get paid well because they are so valuable.

Helium Watch: Dodgers Prospect Andrew Lambo

Scouting the power-hitting Dodgers prospect:

Lambo has a simple, quiet swing until he starts rotating those hips and moving those hands forward. You see a forward shift in weight to build up momentum, a small loading of the hands, and then at foot plant he turns his hips and hands together aggressively.

Rather than achieving “extension”, Lambo lets the ball travel to him instead of letting his hands meet the ball (which saps a player of much of their power). Letting the ball travel deep is an excellent indicator of bat speed.

baseballamerica.com: Q&A with R.J. Harrison

A very short question and answer article with Tampa Rays scouting director R.J. Harrison.

Quick Note: Phillipe Aumont

A quick look at Mariners’ farmhand Phillipe Aumont’s pitching mechanics.

Primer Dugout 5-7-08 (and random link of the day)

Your Mills-age may vary.

Sickels: Top College Hitters for the 2008 Draft

Here is how I rank the top college hitters for the 2008 draft, as of May 6th. I’m looking at the stats and trying to make a contextual adjustment for comparison purposes, as well as scouting reports, TV and video, intuition, etc. 

1) Pedro Alvarez,3B, Vanderbilt: Hitting .294/.400/.471 in 24 games, his OPS is approximately +10 percent compared to context. Obviously this is much below expectation and his previous standards, however the injury is the main factor here. Scouts are cutting him slack and he’s still expected to go in the Top Five overall, and at this point I don’t see any reason to override consensus given his track record.

2) Buster Posey, C, Florida State: HItting .464/.562/.827, OPS is about +63 percent better than context. Posey’s stock is rising due to his tremendous hitting this year as well as the fact that he’s proven to be a reasonable-enough defender behind the plate. Ranking him ahead of Smoak and Alonso may be a bit controversial but he’s done everything asked of him and finding a catcher who can hit and field is harder than finding a first baseman who can hit.

3) Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia: Hitting .412/.524/.874, OPS is about +79 percent better than context. Has also stolen 16 bases in 17 attempts, producing power, plate discipline, etc., and he can play shortstop. Some people compare him to Khalil Greene, others say he’ll hit better than that. Again, this might be controversial ranking him ahead of Smoak and maybe I’ll change my mind.

4) Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina: Hitting .401/.515/.808, 19 homers, 44 walks, OPS about +64 compared to context. I have loved Smoak’s bat since high school...power, plate discipline, switch hitter, good glove. I could see him possibly developing into a Lance Berkman-type hitter if all goes well. Smoak fights expectations sometimes, but I think that’s because people have been watching him for so long that he gets nitpicked. Yesterday I had him ahead of Posey and Beckham, and I might go back to that again.

Thanks to Demeterreader.

What the Future Holds for Brandon Wood | Baseball-Intellect

A break down on Angels prospect Brandon Wood.  An excerpt is below:

By striking out as much as he does, Wood puts a cap on his batting average and in the process puts a cap on his OBP since Wood doesn’t walk enough to make up for a sub-par batting average. His MLE (Major League Equivalency) for batting average is around .230.

If Wood hits .230, his OBP still comes out in the .280 - .310 range. If you bump his average up to .250, his OBP becomes more respectable. If he is able to hit .270, Wood will have a great deal of value because his OBP will be at a more than acceptable level. One reason for the high K% is the problems he has with pitch recognition, which is one of the more difficult things to improve upon, though it is doable.

Primer Dugout 5-6-08 (and random link of the day)

The Doctor is in.

Pitching Mechanics: Max Scherzer

Driveline Mechanics does a voiceover video analysis of Diamondbacks’ prospect Max Scherzer.

Primer Dugout 5-5-2008 (and today’s random link)

Are you mechanically inclined?

Pitcher Analysis: Andrew Miller

An analysis of Andrew Miller’s pitching mechanics in addition to his minor league statistics to determine whether or not he was prematurely rushed to the majors by Detroit…

Daily News: Roger Clemens linked to John Daly’s ex

Welcome to the Daly News

Several sources told the Daily News Wednesday that Clemens had a relationship with Paulette Dean Daly, a former wife of champion golfer John Daly.

The sources said Clemens, a married father of four, arranged trips to Anaheim Stadium for Daly - the latest woman to emerge as an alleged Rocket flame - to watch him pitch for the Yankees against the Angels. Sources also said he spent time with her in Palm Springs, Cali.

Franklin Morales: Where is the Velocity | Baseball-Intellect

A break down on the struggles of Franklin Morales using video comparing his 2007 and 2008 seasons.  An excerpt from the article:

My third observation is the most important in my view: the front leg kick.

At the Futures Game, we see a front leg that kicks out forcefully. You can see how the front leg “firms” or straightens up; look at the ripple in the fabric of Morales’ pants as his front leg becomes fully extended and view that as an indication of the kind of force Morales uses. This leg kick triggers an aggressive turning of Morales’ hips into foot plant.

Baseball-Intellect: A Second Look at Francisco Liriano

After a surge of Francisco Liriano articles in response to the pitcher’s recent demotion, Baseball-Intellect takes a second look at Francisco Liriano, a pitcher’s hand break, and pitching mechanics in general as a follow up to the article the site published a day after Liriano’s first start and in response to a couple of the various articles that came out this past week…

There is no one magic mechanical attribute that all of a sudden increases velocity.  Pitching mechanics are a sequence of individual actions and when these individual actions are put together with precise efficiency, a pitcher can generate velocity in any number of ways. This is not to mention factors that we honestly have no clue of knowing about; for instance, how strong exactly are those ligaments, tendons, muscles, etc in the pitcher’s arm/shoulder?

My feeling is if it is clear Liriano cannot speed up his tempo or break his hands later because he cannot coordinate all the moving parts, then an earlier hand break would be fine to deploy.  However, if he can coordinate and time correctly a later hand break or a faster tempo, then there is no reason to continue to do things that, in my opinion, hurt the quality of his stuff.

Pitcher Analysis: Nick Blackburn

A history and mechanical breakdown of Twins pitcher Nick Blackburn. Blackburn has great bb9/hr9 numbers, but he embodies “tall and fall” mechanics and has possible follow-through problems as detailed by the author.

The Future of Yovani Gallardo

Scouting Yovani Gallardo…

The fact that Gallardo is a good athlete with relatively clean mechanics should keep his injury risk low for a pitcher. With his combination of stuff, command and poise, Gallardo has the qualities to be a top-of-the-rotation starter for a very long time.

Breaking Out and the Overrated: Dexter Fowler vs. Tyler Colvin

Two highly rated center field prospects with uninspiring numbers entering year and one is breaking out and the other remains overrated:

The list of players with poor plate discipline and average contact skills that become successful major leaguers is a short one. Ask yourself how many players we have seen that have gone on to have successful major league careers with K:BB ratios of 10:1, especially ones that don’t have any one particular plus skill.

However, we see breakout performances from athletes that come out of nowhere because they finally “put it together”. The same could be said about Colvin, but for now he looks like a potential fourth OF with the upside of a possible left handed side of a platoon.

Porcello likely won’t suit up in Whitecaps uniform

Even with his marginal success in terms of winning games? Outrageous!

Detroit Tigers roving pitcher instructor Jon Matlack won’t say if the ball club made the right decision in skipping No. 1 draft choice Rick Porcello past West Michigan this spring.

But even with Porcello, the organization’s 19-year-old phenom pitcher, having marginal success at high Class A Lakeland at least in terms of winning games, don’t look for the Tigers to send him to the Whitecaps even if he struggles.

Matlack said the roof would have to collapse on Porcello’s development for that to happen. And he said even with Porcello’s 1-3 start to the season, a collapse is such a long shot that he hasn’t considered it.

Matlack, who was at Fifth Third Ballpark for the Whitecaps’ weekend series against Burlington, said Porcello, who signed a major league contract worth $7 million, has done well in the Florida State League.

“He’s the real deal,” Matlack said.

Pitcher Analysis: Hiroki Kuroda

Hiroki Kuroda, a 33-year old import from Japan, signed a three-year $35 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2007-2008 offseason. But will he remain healthy and effective when pitching in the tougher stateside baseball league?

News Tribune: Miguel Batista recalls playing against ‘The Greatest Prospect’

No, no...it’s not Mike Weimerskrich. Good guess!  But...it’s Brien Taylor.

“They’ve left a lot of prospects behind. I saw the greatest prospect ever in baseball, and he never made it to big leagues,” Batista said. Who was that prospect?

“Brien Taylor,” Batista said with a slight and sad shake of his head. “He was left-handed and he threw 100 miles per hour.”...Batista said he played against Taylor on numerous occasions, and the image is still ingrained in his head.

“It was 1992, and he had the skinniest arms, and when he threw the ball came out like it was out of a shotgun,” Batista said. “It just hissed.” There was wonder in Batista’s eyes just talking about it.

“It was just amazing,” Batista said. “He was 99 miles per hour from the left side and his curve was like 66. It was this big slurve. He could throw it for strikes. He had a little command problem, but his arm strength was amazing.”

...“It’s just sad,” Batista said. “But it shows there are no guarantees about talent. You can’t put a line of projection on just talent alone.”

Batista concluded with his own philosophical deduction.

“A talented man is a guy that knows he that he has a blessing and he does the best he could with it,” Batista said. “A lot of guys are just blessed, but don’t do anything with it, and when time catches up with them they can’t play.”

The Most Overrated Pitching Prospects in Baseball | Baseball-Intellect

Video scouting reports of the most overrated pitching prospects in baseball.  An excerpt follows:

Lofgren is liked by many because of his mental make-up. He is intelligent and has a great “feel” for pitching and many think his stuff plays up because of this. I completely appreciate the need for a pitcher to have a strong make-up and a great feel for pitching, but when it becomes the central argument for putting Lofgren among the better pitching prospects in the game, you lose me.

Including Chuck Lofgren (Indians), the other pitchers include Luke Hochevar (Royals), Greg Reynolds (Rockies), Matt Harrison (Rangers), and Kevin Mulvey (Twins)

Baseball-Intellect: Francisco Liriano One Year Later - What’s Changed?

A look at the changes Francisco Liriano has undergone after injury…

The major differences are boiled down to two still images. An aggressive fury of power and momentum on the left and a safer, controlled action on the right.

Salon: A day at an open tryout for an independent pro baseball league

I’m not sure if I find this King Kaufman piece (with video) sad or uplifting...but then again, I’m still waiting for the N.Y. Rocker to give me a call.

The Golden Baseball League, a minor league unaffiliated with Major League Baseball, held tryouts in San Francisco last week for its 2008 season.

This is as far away as it’s possible to get from the big leagues in professional baseball, and a collection of players with college and minor-league experience showed up to try to reach for that bottom rung.

...Last week’s tryouts weren’t quite open. Players had to have recent experience in college or pro baseball. The league has an age limit of 29, though that’s waived if the player has played as high as Double-A—two steps below the majors—or in any country’s top professional league.

The level of play in independent ball is usually described as comparable to Single-A ball in the affiliated minors, though Matthew Parris, the pitcher who appears in the video, says it can vary widely.

“There are guys here who are better than guys in A or even Double-A,” he said, “and then there are guys who you wonder how they got a job.”

Swing Overhaul: The Adjustments of Marlins Prospect Chris Coghlan

A scouting report on the adjustments made by Florida Marlins prospect Chris Coghlin from the time he was drafted to his 2007 season:

Thoughts about his draft swing - upright stance with a lower body action that is not condusive to power; a knee twist (frame 7) that is meant to open his hips, though the hips open up too soon and he doesn’t do a good job shifting his weight forward into foot plant.  His swing is short, but he makes contact a little too far out in front.  In frame 14, you can see how much “extension” he gets out in front, which is a trait that won’t generate much power.  Also take note of his swing plane, which is pretty linear without much loft.

Compare to his swing from last year in the Sally League All-Star Game:

He has bounced back well from a poor showing in Single-A Jupiter last year:

.345/.406/.517/.923 line so far in AA-Carolina.

Baseball Prospectus | Schrodinger’s Bat: Defense and Pitch Classification

Some interesting stuff from one of my favorite Baseball Prospectus writers, Dan Fox.