University of Missouri – St. Louis: Symposium on Statistics and Operations Research in Baseball

What would Babe Ruth do if he faced Pedro Martinez?
How would Tony LaRussa have done managing Whitey Herzog’s roster?

Paul Bessire of Fox Sports’ What-if-Sports Unit will demonstrate how he simulates these scenarios.  Paul is among the featured speakers at the Third Symposium on Statistics in Sports. 

The third Symposium on Statistics and Operations Research in Baseball will be another meeting of the baseball, industrial, and academic worlds. The focus is on how Statistics and Operations Research methodology is used within baseball and associated businesses and on how baseball inspires the expansion of the frontiers of Statistics and Operations Research as scientific fields. The theme of this year’s Symposium is “Answering Sports Questions with Rigor.”

Not THE Dr. Rigor!

Morris: Kevin Millwood, Rob Neyer, Evan Grant, luck, pitching, and defense

This is a blog post about a post by Evan Grant responding to a blog post by Rob Neyer commenting on a blog post by R.J. Anderson.

That I came across on Facebook...whew!

So this may be a bit meta.

In a nutshell, Grant takes issue with Neyer’s endorsement of Anderson’s point, which is that Kevin Millwood hasn’t really been any better this year than in the past few years.

Evan makes clear his thoughts on Millwood right off the bat:

By almost any evaluation, Millwood has been one of the top five or six pitchers in the AL this season.

I guess the problem is how one defines “top pitcher.” In terms of runs allowed or ERA, absolutely, he’s been one of the top pitchers in the league.

But when we talk about runs allowed or ERA, we mustn’t forget the Tenth Noble Truth of Bill James:

10. A great deal of what is perceived as being pitching is in fact defense.

Diamond Notes: Ned Colletti talks sabermetrics on XTRA Sports 1360 AM in San Diego:

“I think the sabrmetrics gets you interested. I think it gives you a chance to seek more information on somebody. But I’d have a hard time trading for a player or drafting a player that I really didn’t know what was inside his head and inside his heart and how he thought and how his priorities were set up and if he aspired for greatness and was willing to sacrifice. I’m not sure you’re going to get that off a stat sheet. But the numbers do tell part of the story. I think you have to have a mixture of all. Information is power, and as much information as you can get - whether it’s a number on a page or whether it’s a conversation with somebody - I think it adds to your decision-making process and helps you make better calls.”

Mariotti: Steroid Guessing Is Bad Journalism

Lipstick traces on a cigarette…

I am one of the fortunate ones. Twelve months a year, I’m paid to dispense information and opinions on a major Web site read by millions, not to mention a major TV network watched by millions. I don’t have to STRRRRRETTTTCCH THE TRUTH or make something up to be noticed as a columnist.

But in this changing media sphere, where everybody and his pet tarantula has a blog, many do have to compromise facts and fair play to turn heads and maintain some sort of living. And in the sports end of that sphere, the easiest path is to take liberties with the steroids crisis and randomly drop names of so-called users based on nothing more than unfounded speculation, whim and guesswork. For all the fine work done by legitimate journalists who continue to uncover the smut in what inarguably is sport’s biggest scandal ever—T.J. Quinn, Mark Fainaru-Wada and Selena Roberts among them—the sports writing business is rife with too many reckless idiots who don’t hesitate to publish or post a name without the slightest bit of corroboration.

...Predictably, Morris made a fool of himself during a panel discussion on ESPN’s Outside The Lines. Like many bloggers, he came off as someone who hasn’t been properly trained to grasp libel law. Of course, the Internet is the Wild, Wild West and doesn’t punish abusers for libeling people.

Yet.

Meanwhile, the real professionals will keep pounding on the amateurs.

Thanks to Tyler Hissey.

Why is Bucky Dent in my Mailbox?

So I opened my mail last night … and there he was.

Bucky Dent. 

Well, at least a three and a half inch cardboard facsimile of him in near-Mint condition.

Someone is anonymously sending baseball cards to baseball bloggers and writers ... including David Pinto, Will Carroll and Craig Calcaterra

Crashburn Alley: Talkin’ Braves with Craig Calcaterra

Woo-eeee! There’s more plugging going on here than a Visconti Triplets filmfest!

If you live under a rock, you probably haven’t read Craig’s work at Shysterball and NBC Sports. At Baseball Think Factory, I called him the AC Slater of the blogosphere. He’s super cool, popular, and gets stalked (note: I have no idea if Mario Lopez has ever been stalked, but I’d imagine he has). He can probably dance, too.

You might not know it from his overall coverage of Major League Baseball, but Craig is a die-hard Atlanta Braves fan. Yeah, I know — he loses major cool points for that. However, the way the Phillies have been playing, they may want to listen to what a keen observer thinks about the series.

3. There are currently very few statistical methods that even come close to measuring the effectiveness of a manager. Being a Braves fan and having watched Bobby Cox-managed teams for a while, do you think he is really as good as everyone claims?

Actually, Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times has a book coming out this fall that goes a long way towards quantifying managerial effectiveness and he spends many pages on Cox in particular. I won’t even pretend to explain it (mostly because I don’t understand a lot of it) but Cox fares very well among the all-time greats in getting the most out of what he has.  That aside, I think Cox is a very good manager, mostly because he tends to (a) create a drama-free environment that allows his players to relax; and (b) otherwise gets the hell out of the way.  It’s amazing how many managers can’t accomplish even one of those things.  All in all, if you look at the failures of any given Braves team over the past 20 years, you have to point at five other things before you can identify anything that was of Bobby Cox’s doing, and to me, that’s the definition of being a successful manager.

Splice Today: INTERVIEW: Craig Calcaterra of Shysterball

Direct from Columbus: Times, new, Calcaterra.

ST: Last Friday, you joked that some Orioles fans get peeved at you for a lack of positive remarks about the now-perennially struggling team. Nick Markakis is a bona fide star, which you acknowledge, but are there any other players who’ve shown promise under GM Andy McPhail’s leadership? For example, I think Adam Jones has loads of potential, but even though he’s young and still learning, he sometimes betrays his talent by loafing in the field or making base-running mistakes (an O’s specialty). Any encouragement you can offer for this woebegone franchise?

CC: It’s funny, because I’m really hard on some teams, but I’ve never really gone after the O’s in that way. I think the readers’ problem with me is that I rarely say anything at all about Baltimore. But that’s because they’re in that not-too-good-but-not-hopeless gray area that makes a team’s essence hard to capture in my daily recaps. The Marlins are in the same boat, as are the Blue Jays, White Sox, and Rockies. Greatness inspires me, so I write a lot about the Dodgers and Red Sox. Audaciousness inspires me, so I write a lot about the Yankees and Rays. Drama and neurosis inspires me so I write a lot about the Cubs, Mets, and Angels. Finally, futility inspires me, so I write a lot about the Nats and Padres, Indians and Royals. The Orioles may be in last place, but they’re pretty decent for a last place team, and I do think there’s a good future in Baltimore, so right now, they just kind of bore me.

As for that future: They won’t have Huff and probably not Melvin Mora next year, but everyone else in the lineup will be back, with the young (read: good) ones all a year older and wiser. I could see the offense taking a major step forward next year. The rotation has kind of been a disaster, but there is a lot of help on the horizon in the form of Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz and some others. In fact, there may be a starting surplus in 2010 and 2011. While none of them look like top-of-the rotation guys, they’re in much better shape than they’ve been in recently. If I had to guess, I’d say that the Orioles will be frisky next year and straight-out contending in 2011.

Korean Times: Choi Back on Track in Home Run Race

The Tigers star hitter led the team’s offence with seven homers in each of April and May, but opposing pitchers seemed to figure him out after that.

The first baseman, who recorded a .321 batting average in April, hit just .260 in May and has hit just .152 through 16 games in June.

However, Choi still wants to be the home run champion at season’s end and thinks Sunday’s blast could be the turning point.

``When I was struggling in the slump, it was really hard. I am hoping that this home run will help me turn things around and I will find my old form,’’ Choi said.

After the big Tiger got caught in a deep swamp, some professional managers said it’s hard for local players to compete with the imports in the home run race.

But, Choi is proving he is one of the few Korean players who can compete with the imports. World Baseball Classic (WBC) slugger star Kim Tae-kyun of the Eagles has struggled since suffering a stroke on April 26. Kim has missed most games since then while recovering.

Dodgers.com: Brooklyn Dodgers fan’s dream comes true

McCourt arranged for Pierre, 71, to fly out from New York on Friday on JetBlue so that he could take in a game at Dodger Stadium, as well as go on a special tour on Saturday with his fellow commentators on the Inside the Dodgers blog.

“It’s like a dream,” Pierre said during his tour. “It’s nice of him to do this. I don’t know how to explain this. I can never thank him enough. I’ll never forget this for the rest of my life.”

Pierre’s dream-come-true of visiting the stadium he’d seen on television so many times really started last October when one of the regular commentators on the Inside the Dodgers blog asked Dodgers vice president of communications, Josh Rawitch, who also runs the blog, if he could arrange a special stadium tour for the regulars on the site.

“I threw it out there not thinking it would ever happen,” said Mike Corrigan, who posts as “perumike.” “I just thought it would be cool to get a tour and see a game.”

“It’s great to see someone as happy as he is right now,” McCourt said. “He’s a lifelong Dodger fan, and he’s never been here before, and he said it’s like a dream come true. He got a behind-the-scenes tour and he’s watching the game and he said he’s living his dream. It’s a great statement. It’s his team. This is what it’s all about. He’s one of a legion of fans that are emotional stakeholders in the franchise and you can feel their emotion.”

Monson was impressed by McCourt offering to fly out Pierre and pay for him to stay at the Hilton Glendale for two nights as well.

“It was generous and respectful of McCourt to offer to do this,” Monson said. “This was a very class move and something he didn’t have to do.”

Over the line, Smokey!: Kershaw watch, part 2

Koufax as of 10/15/57, age 21y 9mo, Kershaw as of 6/26/09, age 21y 3mo.

Koufax IP 205.2 W 09 L 10 H 182 ER 91 K 182 BB 108
KershawIP 190.1 W 10 L 10 H 171 ER 85 K 183 BB 99

Koufax ERA=3.99, WHIP=1.41, K/9 innings=8.0
KershawERA=4.01, WHIP=1.42, K/9 innings=8.7

If you don’t think that’s spooky, you’re not paying attention.

In other Dodgers news, Cory Wade was optioned to Triple-A to allow Eric Milton to start on Sat.

12:01 Tuesday: Patent Unearths Mascot Mystery

But why would The Boss want a mascot?  After all, everybody knows the Yankees are just one of four MLB teams that don’t have a mascot, as beautifully illustrated the other day by the folks at GOOD.

So maybe it is for the new Tampa high school named in George’s honor.  That must be it.  They were looking for a mascot recently.  But this guy certainly isn’t a “Warrior”.

It couldn’t be a Yankees mascot, could it? And if the traditional, no-names-on-jerseys Yankees were going to have a mascot, would it really be this?

Just a little more Googling and there it is: a reference and picture of this “Yankees mascot” at a recent charity event.  In pinstripes.  Oh my.

The story gets better.  The inventor, Felix Lopez, is Senior VP of the Yankees.  And he’s Steinbrenner’s son-in-law.  In other words, the 26-time World Series champions, who will pay hundreds of millions of dollars for top talent on the field, won’t hire the best graphics designers in the land to come up with an endearing entertainer to keep fans happy in their overpriced seats as they watch their team struggle to make the playoffs.  For that, they turn to family.

Yeah, this mascot is kind of cute.  But he’s no San Diego Chicken or Phillie Phanatic.  For what the Yanks paid, I’d think they’d have done better getting Dancin’ Homer to do the Baby Elephant Walk on the jumbotron.

THT: Poisoning the Well

It’s a clear and simple case of poisioning the well. It’s a form of personal (or “ad hominem,” if you prefer) argument that attempts to discredit what a person has to say before he actually gets the chance to say it.

In a larger sense, it’s an effort to discredit sabermetrics (and thus avoid arguing with its premises) by discrediting the sabermetrician, or sabermetricians in general.

...It’s the same in rhetoric as it is in baseball. Both sides have to play by the same rules, or there’s no point in playing along. It’s an old aphorism: never wrestle with a pig, because you get dirty and the pig likes it.

Shall we play a game?

L.A. Times: T.J. Simers: Even he can’t stay mad at Manny

ESPN’s Colleen Dominguez reports Tuesday afternoon that Ramirez orders pasta. She does not follow him inside even though that’s why she’s here, because she needs to go to the empty stadium to do a report for ESPN.

“I didn’t see him order pasta,” she says later in explaining her exclusive, “but I feel comfortable with my sources.”

Dodgers’ PR guy Josh Rawitch cannot confirm Ramirez ordered pasta, “because I wasn’t there.” That doesn’t seem to matter to Dominguez.

The Times’ Dylan Hernandez appears disappointed, all his life wanting to come to Albuquerque and bang on the batting cage while Manny’s inside trying to hit a ball off a tee. Manny can hit a 94-mph fastball in front of 50,000 screaming fans, but for some reason Hernandez unnerves him while facing a tee.

A nation awaits more breaking Manny news, Dominguez confirming “it was spaghetti.” She also spots him carrying “six bottles of water.” Nothing gets by her.

ESPN News has plans to go live each time Manny bats, Manny explaining before the game, “people love me everywhere.”

Hard to argue, or for that matter feign Gary Matthews’ Jr.-like outrage, Manny more charismatic, more talented and more interesting than Matthews.

But this is L.A. Manny, a different guy from the one everyone talked about in Boston, L.A. Manny listening to some advice offered by Mota and then stepping forward to say, “Let’s go—let’s talk. What do you want to know?”

Fish Tank:  Video: Marlins fan vs. Yankees fan in a brawl for the ages

Wondering about all that ruckus in the stands during Sunday’s game? We’ve got the answer. One intrepid fan shot the following video, which involves a Yankees fan and Marlins fan going at it, WWE-style, in what some are calling ‘The Citizen Kane of Fan Fight Videos.’ A title well-earned, we say:

Bleacher Report:  Hot Commodity: Los Angeles Dodgers Interested in Jarrod Washburn

Washburn’s stats are misleading (26-48 4.23 ERA), as he has something like the second lowest run support out of all AL pitchers in his tenure with the Mariners, something interested teams know.

Since the Mariners are not in a desperate situation (i.e. 30 games out and forced to sell for the future), and could either be buyers or sellers this season, it will drive the price for their players up. No matter what they decide to do, they are going to get top line young talent, or established MLB ready players.

With a confident, competent GM in Jack Zdurencik who has already shown his savvy in trades by grabbing guys like David Aardsma, Jason Vargas, Garret Olson, and Franklin Guiterrez, Mariners’ fans should feel good about what goes on at this years trade deadline. It has been a refreshing change from the Bavasi era when all of the best trade chips were given away on a silver platter. I know every trade deadline of late felt like a kick to the nuts for Mariners fans.

Name one Bavasi era trade import who is currently making any impact for the Mariners. That’s funny, because there are not any.

In regards to Washburn, a three prospect package containing two high rated prospects, and a mid to low level, is what can be expected. I would expect them to be looking for a SS with the lackadaisical Yuniesky Betancourt drawing the ire of many Mariners fans. I know I am not the only one wishing those Jack Wilson trade rumors had not fallen through.

A report from the Seattle Times had Dodgers OF Juan Pierre as a possible match for Washburn. Just what the Mariners need, another OF who cannot hit for power.

With JZ at the helm, just let this thing play itself out and the result should be positive Mariners fans.

Man, Bleacher Report is always good for a laugh.

AP: Fans overlook suspension to see star

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M.—J.J. Gutierrez, a 15-year-old baseball fan, didn’t mince words when asked about Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Manny Ramirez.

“He’s a cheater,” Gutierrez said. “But I still want to see him play.”

Gutierrez and his father, Julian, were among a steady stream of fans who lined up four- and five-deep at the Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes’ box office Monday to buy tickets for this week’s series against Nashville.

Fans began buying tickets Friday amid speculation Ramirez might be coming to Albuquerque. The club sold almost 7,000 tickets that day, compared to typical pre-game reserved sales in the hundreds for a midweek series in June.

“And then it got busy,” Traub said. “Friday was nuts. Friday was a vacation compared to what followed.”

Since Torre told reporters on Saturday evening that Ramirez had agreed to begin his minor-league assignment in Albuquerque, Traub said the Isotopes have sold about 20,000 tickets for this week’s four home games.

Traub had a message for fans planning to buy walk-up tickets.

“If you want to see Manny, you can see Manny,” he said. “But we’re telling people not to wait until the last minute. If they do, they’re going to be standing in line and they’ll miss his first two at-bats.”

Beyond the Boxscore: Kalkman: Defending Harold Reynolds

Well, somebody had to do it...since garru-lousy Greg Amsinger is too busy discovering that Rod Carew chewed gum to widen his batting view and that sneezing stops your heart!

Is OPS a great stat?  No.  Will a slugger in a weak lineup receive more walks?  Yes.  Will his home runs be less valuable because pitchers will actually give him something good to hit only when it matters less?  Probably.  And—allowing for some writing gaffes— that’s Harold’s main point.  If someone explained to him that WPA/LI accounted for the context of every game situation and gave appropriate credit for advancing runners when necessary and hitting home runs when they mattered the most, don’t you think he’d agree it was better than OPS?  I do.  One of the largest mantras of statheads is that context matters.  Well, Harold just wrote an article about how context matters.

The problem many statheads have with an article like this is that Harold used the language of a traditionalist.  Yes, numbers and analytical research would have made me like the article a lot more, but Harold is still right, if you give him a little leeway. Maybe he doesn’t deserve that leeway because of past analytical mistakes, but the point remains even if we move on from Harold Reynolds specifically to non-saberists in general.  Speaking French while in China makes you more difficult to understand, but not any more right or wrong.

...If we’re all going to get a long, with more fans appreciating the benefits of the saber point of view and statheads being seen as real baseball fans, then statheads need to realize that inexperience does not equate to stupidity and that speaking a non-numbers language does not equate to being dumb.  Non-statheads need to realize that many statheads aren’t actually being condescending and that they’d probably agree with much of the Saber Bible if it were explained in their own, non-techy language.  I realize getting two groups with different styles to realize their goals are basically the same has never been an easy accomplishment—dare I mention religious conflicts?—but it really would be a whole lot more fun for everybody to just talk baseball instead of having annoying arguments.

Let me stop rambling and sum things up.  Bad writing does not make the analysis bad.  Incomplete analysis does not make the analysis wrong.  And using a different language requires those who don’t speak the language to translate what’s being said, not slam the language being spoken.  Sometimes we statheads have to meet the non-statheads half way, instead of expecting them to come to us while we hurl grenades into the path they’re walking.

BDD: Baer: Statistics Are Not Like Bikinis

Does this mean I have to chuck my Jaime Lynn Fox/Paige Hopewell DVD?

I say all of this, of course, in regard to the article that Brian (Joseph) wrote yesterday about Sabermetrics. Some of the criticism was valid, but he didn’t identify the correct target, which should have been us, the fallible humans. His criticisms (such as Sabermetrics being subjectively objective) didn’t put any chinks the armor of Sabermetrics because Sabermetrics — essentially one of baseball’s sciences — is adaptable. If there’s a problem with an aspect of Sabermetrics, go ahead and change it.

Additionally, Sabermetrics — contrary to the claims of many who don’t trust it — is not adhered to religiously. Just because PECOTA says Matt Wieters is going to smoke some American League pitching doesn’t mean that he is, in fact, going to smoke some American League pitching. We can choose to accept what various analyses say, or we can reject them. Just because one prefers DIPS to ERA doesn’t mean one is bound to the conclusions reached via DIPS and cannot utilize ERA in analysis.

I don’t write this as a jab back at Brian, what with me being someone who utilizes Sabermetrics. I welcome and enjoy reading well-written, well-researched criticisms of the sciences because it can only help us improve. It is important, though, to identify who or what is really at fault, and in the case of Brian’s criticisms, it’s the people using the science and not the actual science itself.

Statistically Speaking: Novick: A Call to Arms

Attenzione! StatSpeak is looking for new Saberiffic writers...and with Jesus Melendez off interviewing C.J. Wilson. He’s out.

If you’ve been reading StatSpeak for a while now like the rest of the world, you’ve probably noticed some turnover in the past year or so. A blog that was at one point written only by Pizza Cutter expanded to include some of the bigger names in sabermetrics, such as Eric Seidman, Colin Wyers, Brian Cartwright, and Matt Swartz (vote for Matt and Brian!). Sometimes relative unknowns at the time they started here, these guys have since moved on to sites like The Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, and even done consulting for Major League teams and players. While StatSpeak is proud to have such a strong alumni list, which you can read in full in Pizza’s Valedictory, we must constantly be searching for new people to fill the void left by talented writers moving on to other things. As you can see, I’m still here ;)

With that, I am putting out a call to the readers of Statistically Speaking, asking for your help. We would all like to keep this blog going full time, and it will be a difficult task to do once Matt undoubtedly wins BP Idol. So if you are interested in writing for StatSpeak, send me and email at dcn29@cornell.edu. Don’t post your interest in the comments section, because I have no way of contacting you if you do so. This isn’t a formal application or anything like that, and there aren’t any qualifications you must have, except for a passion for baseball. Also, as you can probably tell, the schedule here is pretty flexible, so don’t let that be a concern.

Sony scraps Soderbergh’s ‘Moneyball’

Columbia Pictures has dropped the ball on “Moneyball,” the Steven Soderbergh-directed Brad Pitt-starrer that was supposed to begin production Monday in Phoenix.

On Friday, Columbia Pictures topper Amy Pascal placed the picture into “limited turnaround,” giving the filmmaker the chance to set it up at another studio, with Warner Bros. and Paramount the prime targets.

The move came after Pascal read the final draft delivered last week by Steve Zaillian and Steven Soderbergh and found it very different from the earlier scripts she championed. Pascal was uncomfortable enough with how Steven Soderbergh’s vision had changed that she applied the brakes.

Soderbergh and Pitt’s CAA reps spent the weekend attempting to get another studio to play ball in a game that will play out until Monday. If a new financier doesn’t emerge by tomorrow, Columbia will re-examine options that include replacing Soderbergh (and hoping that Pitt doesn’t ankle), delaying the film until she and the filmmaker find themselves in synch on the script, or pulling the plug.

Even in the climate of heightened studio caution, the turnaround news on “Moneyball” is surprising, given that had reached the equivalent of third base. The picture was just 96 hours before the participants were ready to take the field, following three months of prep and with camera tests completed and cast and budget in place.

Fake Umps Phenomenon Hits Nationals Park to Great Delight of Fans

If you’ve tuned into a Blue Jays game at the Rogers Centre this year, chances are you’ve seen Tim Williams and Joe Farrell. If those two names aren’t ringing a bell—and there’s really no reason they should—how about a description.

Williams and Farrell, both Jays season-ticket holders, often take their seats in the first row behind home plate dressed from head to toe as umpires. Their impersonation of the men in blue doesn’t end there. For the entire game, Williams and Farrell mimic the calls of the umpires, raising their arms and bellowing out strike calls, sticking up their fingers to let fans behind them know the count and brushing one hand over the other emphatically to signal foul tips.

“There are 7 billion people on the planet. Do you know how many of them travel to another city to fake umpire a game? You’re looking at ‘em,” Williams tells FanHouse Friday night at Nationals Park.

For the first time this weekend Williams and Farrell, who have a bit of a cult following in Toronto, took their show onto American soil, traveling to Washington for a three-game series between their hometown Blue Jays and the Nationals.

If the fans at Nationals Park—even the stuffy ones sitting in the $325-a-game President’s Club seats—are any indication, that cult following could grow quickly.

During Friday night’s game, a 2-1 Nationals win in extra innings, Washington team president Stan Kasten approaches Williams and Farrell to shake their hands and compliment their work. Scores of fans rush up during every half-inning to get their picture taken with the faux men in blue, while others take delight in either cheering or heckling their calls.

NANANANANANANANA- FAKE UMPS! NANANANANANANANANA- FAKE UMPS! FAKE UMPS! FAKE UMPS!

JeffFrancoeur.com: June 17, 2009

Happy Birthday Delta! 80 years. Wow, you guys are getting up there!

I just wanted to wish you a very happy 80th birthday and thank you for not only everything that you’ve done for me and my family, but also for what you guys continue to do for all of your customers.

It’s crazy to think how far everything has come…I mean, now we have mobile boarding passes, Wi-Fi on the plane, online booking, TV screens on the back of headrests, movies, music…I could go on and on. One of the first things I do when I sit down is to flip to the back of the in-flight magazine to see what movie will be playing on my flight! Delta never ceases to amaze me and you guys continue to make flying more and more enjoyable. And considering how much flying I do over the course of a year, I love all of the little extras that Delta provide.

Other guys on the team spend their time playing cards, sleeping, going out to eat, reading magazines, getting some extra batting practice and hitting the gym in the hotel. If any of you have seen the old movies like Rookie of the Year and Little Big League, there are definitely some pranks pulled on teammates while on the road. But I won’t get too specific on those.

I’m excited to play in Boston this week, and then even more excited to get back to Atlanta to host the Yankees and Red Sox at Turner Field. Don’t forget about Delta Day at Turner Field on June 24th!

http://blog.delta.com/category/sponsorships/

L.A. Times:  Dodgers beat Angels as Weaver brothers’ duel fails to develop

The older brother has the bragging rights.

Jered Weaver could become the first member of his family to become an All-Star next month, but he wasn’t nearly as sharp as Jeff Weaver on Saturday night at Angel Stadium.

The elder Weaver gave up two runs in five-plus innings and Andre Ethier drove in two runs to lead the Dodgers to a 6-4 victory that snapped the Angels’ seven-game winning streak.

With their parents sitting behind home plate wearing custom-made jerseys with “Wea” across the back in Dodgers blue and “ver” in Angels red, the Weavers became the first brothers to face each other in a major league game since Andy and Alan Benes in September 2002.

It wasn’t a memorable encounter for Jered Weaver (7-3), who gave up 10 hits and six runs in 5 1/3 innings. It was as many runs as Weaver had allowed in 53 2/3 innings at home this season before Saturday.

Russell Martin hit his first homer of the season for the Dodgers, who won for only the third time in their last 10 games at Angel Stadium.

Mike Rose teaching lessons learned to Lookouts

As a 32-year-old backup catcher for the Chattanooga Lookouts, Mike Rose has plenty of experiences to share with younger teammates.

Rose entered pro baseball as a long shot, getting picked by Florida in the 45th round of the 1996 draft, yet has competed on three big-league teams. He has enjoyed the excitement of his first promotion to the majors with Oakland in 2004, the thrill of a championship run with St. Louis in ’06 and his first big-league home run with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

“It was in my last at-bat of the 2005 season,” Rose said. “It was in San Diego and Vin Scully called it. That was pretty cool.”

Another experience, though, he wishes had never happened.

On March 12, 2000, Rose was in spring training with the Houston Astros in Kissimmee, Fla., when he, four other minor leaguers and a player’s girlfriend were bound with tape and held at gunpoint inside a motel room. They sat helpless as two masked men scoured the room for valuable personal items before leaving.

The victims untied themselves, but when Rose called to check on another player in his room, one of the gunmen answered. Aaron Miles was returning to his room from dinner, and he was held at gunpoint for half an hour before grabbing the gun and struggling with the perpetrator.

Police then broke into Miles’ room and shot the burglar several times. The other gunman had fled earlier but was quickly caught.

Crash Davis has nothing on Mike Rose.

Rob Neyer: On deck: Weaver vs. Weaver

If, as planned, Jeff Weaver faces Jered Weaver Saturday night, according to the Los Angeles Daily News:

Cool. I’ve already set my DVR. But the one thing I want to know, I don’t yet: which set of brothers will the Weavers be? The Niekros, the Beneses, and the Martinezes account for at least 11 of the 20 previous matchups.

Because you pay good money (not) to read this blog, I did a little research of my own, and discovered that:

• Virgil Barnes and Jesse Barnes faced off for the first time in 1924, and would meet three more times;

• Greg and Mike Maddux met twice, first in 1986 when both were rookies, and then again two years later;

• by special arrangement, Pat Underwood’s major league debut in 1979 was against his brother Tom (and what a matchup it was!);

• the Underwoods, the Martinezes, and the Beneses faced off just the once,

• as did Gaylord and Jim Perry, in 1973.

So that’s the whole list, right? Wait, let me run through the math ... Nope, still missing one. We’ve got seven sets of brothers accounting for 19 matchups: the Niekros nine times, the Barneses four times, the Madduxes twice, and four other sets once apiece. Nineteen. Assuming that I didn’t miss a game for one of the aforementioned pairs, a lovely No-Prize goes to whomever can identify the eighth brothers and drop them into the comments.

THT: Dan Turkenkopf : Adjusting steals for win value

There’s already been a lot of noise on the basepaths in 2009. Dexter Fowler stole a rookie record five bases against Chris Young in April. Carl Crawford bested him less than a week later when he stole six bases on Jason Varitek and the Red Sox pitchers. Jacoby Ellsbury made a splash stealing home behind Andy Pettitte’s back and seemed to have started a trend. Crawford is currently on pace for almost 90 stolen bases this year, a number not reached in 20 years.

These incidents and more have caused some to ask whether the stolen base is re-emerging as an effective offensive weapon.

Rather than answer that question, I prefer to look backwards to rate the speedsters of the past. Which base runners have been the most effective stealing bases across history?

Unfortunately for this exercise, history can only go back as far as Retrosheet’s play-by-play records, but that still gives us over 50 years to look at.

What do I mean by most effective? There’s really two ways we can look at that; overall value, and rate value. We’ll get to the particulars in a minute, but first let’s take a little detour down the win probability path.

THT:Colin Wyers: How well can we predict ERA?

Ability vs. Value

I have written at length before on the basic principles of ability (or true-talent level) verus value. There’s just one point I want to come around and reemphasize.

People tend to lean upon defense-independent estimates of pitching performance because they better predict future performance. (And, strictly speaking, they do.) This leads to a lot of fantastic confusion about the issue, with the argument being that if we want to look at past performance, we should ignore defense-independent measures and look at actual results.

This is wrong for the same reason that we look at a pitcher’s ERA instead of his win-loss record. A team does not consistently score the same amount of runs every game; thus it is possible for different pitchers, even different pitchers on the same team, to have vastly different amounts of run support. This is not a function of pitching, and the credit or blame for this should not righly be assigned to the pitcher.

It is the same with defensive support. Two pitchers, even two pitchers on the same team, cannot be presumed to have the same quality of support from their defense. Defense-independent pitching statistics seek to give us a way to compare pitchers with different defensive support fairly.

But for a value measure, we do not care if a result came from luck or skill. We attribute defensive performance to the defense, not because the pitcher has no control over it, but because someone else does have control over it.

Home runs, on the other hand, are not under the purvue of the defense (except for a few, very rare cases). Thus, for a value metric, it is appropriate to credit a pitcher for the precise number of home runs allowed, and not an estimate thereof.

ESPN: Angels and Dodgers: A possible World Series preview?

This Dodgers heading over to play the Angels is definitely the best interleague series of the weekend. It’s the best team in the NL against the hottest team in the AL. It is still very early, but the case can easily be made that this could end up being a World Series preview if the Angels continue to hit the way they’ve hit.

This makes for a very good series. To add just a little more interest to this meeting, you have a sibling matchup set for Saturday, with Jeff and Jared Weaver pitching against each other. You’ve got to love that. There is also a pretty good matchup on “Sunday Night Baseball,” with the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw up against the Angels’ John Lackey. So there’s really nothing to dislike about this series at Angel Stadium.

The Dodgers have done a nice job of scoring runs, averaging five runs a game and, again, they’ve done it mostly without having Ramirez in the middle of the lineup. They’ve got tremendous help in their bullpen from guys they didn’t expect to get much out of. Ramon Troncoso has been terrific. The kid who, at one time, was nearly the final pitcher on the Dodgers’ roster is walking around with a 2.34 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.

Bill Simmons: The wonder years

We’re going with a one-question mailbag this week, courtesy of Phil D. from Montclair, N.J.: “What was the purest baseball era, from a statistical perspective?”

Honestly, Phil? That’s like asking, “Who’s the purest actress in an X-rated movie?” Every baseball era has been tainted to some degree. But if there is no era, maybe we can find a window. A four- or five-year stretch will do. Two years, even. Hell, I’ll settle for an All-Star break. Okay, let’s begin.

I’m dismissing the following eras for being either impure, antiquated or uniquely ludicrous:

The 1800s: Please. They wouldn’t even let those guys play in Ray Kinsella’s cornfield.

1900-1919: Pitchers threw 300 to 400 innings a season. Some outfields didn’t have fences. They used the same ball over and over; by the seventh inning, it looked like Mickey Rourke’s face. Teams hit a home run every five or six games. Fielders left their gloves on the field between innings. Minorities couldn’t play. Come on.

The Red Sox weren’t integrated until 1959, with the arrival of Pumpsie Green.

1920-1946: Once Babe Ruth ushered in the long ball era, teams averaged five-plus runs a game, and ERAs soared to Chien-Ming Wangesque heights. Also, the concept of the bullpen hadn’t been thought through. And WWII hijacked so many players that the 1945 Browns started a one-armed outfielder, leading to 45,000 “old Pete Gray is just lending them a hand” jokes that summer. Minorities were still banned. No thanks.

1947-1959: Jackie Robinson finally integrated baseball … but it didn’t exactly become the U.N. Most teams had one or two minority players, tops. The Red Sox didn’t start their first black guy until 1959—and his name was Pumpsie. Still not buying it.

THT: Carty: More on the LIPS/FIP discrepancy

As a couple of readers pointed out, while almost all of the players on my list from Monday had abnormally high or low HR/FB rates (which is to be expected since FIP doesn’t normalize HR/FB), there were a few pitchers who saw a big disparity between FIP and LIPS yet had completely normal HR/FB rates. How could this be?

The answer is that while the biggest difference between LIPS and FIP is the fact that LIPS normalizes HR/FB, LIPS also takes into account a few other things that FIP does not. So today, I’m going to look at a few of the starting pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched and at least a 0.50 LIPS/FIP difference and examine why this difference exists.

Roy Halladay - Worse than FIP indicates

Halladay’s difference is being driven by the same two factors as Cook.

1) The Rogers Centre inflates run scoring by 3.1 percent.
2) His infield fly ball rate (2.7 percent) is lower than league average (3.9 percent).

Chris Young - Better than FIP indicates

Chris Young has the most extreme LIPS/FIP difference of any pitcher in baseball this year, whether under or overvalued. Three factors are driving this:

1) PETCO reduces run scoring by 7.7 percent.
2) He induces more than twice as many infield flies (7.7 percent) than league average (3.9 percent).
3) He hits fewer batters (0.24 per 9) than league average (0.35 per 9)