Dominican Today: Willy Aybar says sorry

Wooly Willy magnetic personality…

Tigres del Licey baseball player Willy Aybar met with National District Prosecutor Alejandro Moscoso Segarra yesterday and apologized to the authorities in the hope that they would assess his case again and lift the three-month imprisonment coercion measures imposed by a court.

...“Naturally, he says he had a positive experience and wants us to consider his professional career, his family life, as this has put his future at risk”, said Peralta, adding that “for the moment the Prosecutor’s Office has not reached any decision on this case”.

Willy Aybar is accused of violence against his wife and creating a disturbance at his place of residence, as well as of verbal violence against prosecutors Adolfo Féliz and Aracelis Peralta on the day he was arrested.

Could Your City Give a Sports Team a Good Home?

As far as MLB goes, unless your city is either in California’s Inland Empire region or is a humongous metropolis that already has a team, apparently not.  (Listed as “marginal” are Montreal; Las Vegas; and the “Gold Coast” of Connecticut.)

“Total personal income(TPI)”: the sum of all money earned by all residents of an area in a given year. Using team revenue data and average ticket prices one can calculate amount of TPI needed to adequately support a team in each north american professional sports league.

“Available personal income(API)”: simply TPI less the cost it takes to support the city’s pro teams. If API is positive, it means that you are good to go for a franchise.

Graphic here.

Cubs Sign Andy Sonnanstine

In yet another “buy low” move, the Cubs have signed former Rays righthander Andy Sonnanstine to a non-guaranteed split contract—i.e. he’ll make more if he makes the major league team.

Sonnanstine looked promising in his first two seasons with the Rays, particularly in 2008 when he posted a 101 ERA+ and had an excellent walk ratio of 1.7 per nine innings and had two good starts for the Rays in the 2008 postseason. But he has regressed the last three years, was banished to the Rays’ bullpen and spent much of 2011 at Triple-A Durham.

Sonnanstine will be 29 in March. He’s a reclamation project, but at that age he’s got a much better chance to be productive than the retreads (Doug Davis, Ramon Ortiz, Rodrigo Lopez) that Jim Hendry signed last year.

Thanks to Pete.

Jayson Stark (ESPN): Strange stuff … in the 2011 postseason

The postseason edition of trivia and oddbits that Jayson Stark excels at collecting and presenting…

Here’s one I didn’t know:

All four teams that advanced to the LCS—the Cardinals, Brewers, Rangers and Tigers—got outscored by the teams they played in the Division Series … and won.

ESPN: Yorvit Torrealba suspended in Venezuela

Texas Rangers backup catcher Yorvit Torrealba has been suspended 66 games by the Venezuelan League for striking an umpire, league president Jose Grasso Vecchio announced Monday morning on Twitter.

The suspension covers the rest of this season and all of next season in the Venezuelan League. Penalties in winter ball do not carry over to Major League Baseball.

Have to think MLB or the Rangers will take some action, too.

Primer Dugout (and link of the day) 12-26-2011

New York Times, December 26, 1911:

CHICAGO, Dec. 25.—Adrian C. Anson, Captain of the Chicago baseball team of 1876, and since then one of the best-known figures in the National sport, saved two boys from drowning to-day in the Lagoon in Jackson Park.

“Pop” Anson, as he is known, was playing golf with Dr. E.C. Caldwell when he heard cries for help and saw a boy struggling in the water.  The boy’s companion was trying to rescue him, but in a moment he, too, broke through the ice.

He was playing golf. In Chicago. On Christmas. When it was cold enough for a lagoon to freeze over.

Maybe Anson was no racist.  Maybe he was just insane.

Goold: ‘Rarity’ Fielder remains unsigned

Inside the Boras Binder on Prince Fielder (“It’s NOT a cookbook!”...Graeme Lloyd Bochner stares in total disbelief).

The binder contains glorious statistical factoids:

• Only three Hall of Fame first basemen had as many as 200 home runs by the age of 27: Jimmie Foxx, Orlando Cepeda and Killebrew. Fielder has 230.

• Fielder is the seventh player to hit 32 home runs or more in five seasons by the age of 27. The others: Miguel Cabrera, Eddie Mathews, Pujols, Rodriguez, Foxx and Vlad Guerrero.

• Pujols and Fielder are the only players with at least 32 home runs in each of the past five seasons.

• Fielder hit a home run that reached a velocity of 119.2 mph, the highest of any homer this past season, according to ESPN Stats.

• He is the only player to average .280 with more than 40 homers and at least 100 RBIs from 2007 to 2011. (Not mentioned: Pujols averaged .324, 39 homers and 114 RBIs in that same period.)

“You see who has as many home runs by the age of 27 at first base and you see Jimmie Foxx and Lou Gehrig and the list is only four guys,” Boras explained this month. “You have to double-check. Then you start looking at what accomplishments this man has had at such a young age. You look at the game and the younger core that’s coming and you’d say there’s no one (like Fielder). You’re going to have to average 37 home runs in this period of time. Who’s going to do that?”

Neyer: What’s To Be Done With Bill Conlin?

One old sparky chair comes to mind! Picks up torch and pitchfork (sees Bon Iver won year-ender…throws away in disgust)...

But what if we discover that one of the players in the actual Hall of Fame did something far more abhorrent than using steroids or testosterone? Say, murder. Would the Hall of Fame seriously consider removing that player? I honestly don’t know.

Of course, time plays a role here. Conlin just won the Spink Award. In the display in the Museum, he’s featured. If Conlin were dead, or if he’d won the award 10 years ago, this whole sordid affair might be a three-day story. But now? With Conlin still around? With an extra-big photo of him in the Museum? With Jerry Sandusky still running free?

Right now, everything is so raw. If given a chance, I suppose I would split the difference. I would not rescind Conlin’s Spink Award, but I would hasten to make him less visible in Cooperstown. We’ve got a new winner: Bob Elliott. Maybe it’s as easy as making him the center piece of the exhibit a few months earlier than scheduled.

Or maybe Conlin should simply be defrocked. I don’t have the answer yet. I do anticipate a spirited discussion. Which will be more than welcome.

Chimelis: Baseball Hall of Fame final four: Bagwell, Morris, Larkin, McGriff

Keri, Burley, Sager and Tango. Nothing to see here, just move along. (gulp)

Now, for the many borderliners I rejected:

...Tim Raines. My first instinct was to vote for Raines, who ranks fifth all-time in steals with 808.

Unlike saves, steals have been been meaningful for 140 years. Raines had six straight 70-steal seasons.

He had a cocaine problem early in his career. I could get past that.

Raines played 23 years. I don’t think that would have happened had he not kicked the habit - and if he did beat the demon, good for him.

But if Raines gets in because he is fifth in steals, what about Vince Coleman, who is sixth?

That’s why I talked myself out of it.

NY Times: “For Mets, Vast Debt And Not a Lot of Time”

“It seems inconceivable they’re going to hold onto the team for the long term when you look at the incredible hurdles they face in 2014 and 2015,” said Howard Megdal, author of an e-book, “Wilpon’s Folly,” in which he details the financial pressures on the team.

Mets officials declined to speak about the team’s debt or to discuss Megdal. They issued a statement that said, “We do not publicly address specific issues pertaining to our finances including inaccurate, speculative and ongoing fabrications.” ...

But [Selig] has indulged Wilpon, a friend and ally for 30 years. Unlike McCourt, Wilpon has tried to find minority partners to resolve his continuing cash crunch. So Selig has not installed a monitor to oversee the Mets as he did with McCourt. ...

“Bud would leave the dirty work to the banks,” said one banker who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “It would be easy for him to ask Fred’s bankers, ‘How’s that loan going?’” ...

One source of financing — barring additional bank borrowing — is coming from within Sterling Equities, the parent company of the Mets. Recently, $40 million became available to buy two more of the minority shares. All of it went to offset losses, said two people familiar with the team’s finances.

Report: Jorge Posada could play for Rays

Yup, seeing that Posada hit about a buck eighty away from Yankee Stadium the last two seasons…

If Jorge Posada has any baseball juice left, he could try to squeeze it out in Tampa Bay.

ESPN Deportes is reporting the Rays are interested in perhaps inking the veteran Puerto Rican to be a part-time first baseman, designated hitter and play a little at his “old” position at catcher.

ESPN Deportes also indicated the Phillies and Orioles are interested parties for 40-year-old veteran’s services, though it is not yet known if the ex-Yankees star is ready to call it quits.

A role for Posada, who has 275 career homers and 1.065 RBIs, in Tampa Bay could make the most sense, except that veteran starting catcher Jose Molina is a well-seasoned 36-year-old.

Murray Chass on Baseball: METS STILL SHUT DOWN

IT’S ALMOST 2012 AND THE METS ARE STILL LISTENING TO THE BEACH BOYS, MR. PRESIDENT.

AWARDS POSE PROBLEM FOR WRITERS

I offer the same suggestion for the Conlin award, though in his case there is a more difficult decision because his alleged acts of sexual abuse occurred so long ago – apparently in the 1970s – that the statute of limitations bars prosecution. In other words, the BBWAA will not have a conviction or an acquittal on which it could base a decision if it wants to decide whether or not to strip Conlin of the award.

In the interest of full disclosure, I was on the three-man committee that nominated Conlin and two other writers for the award last year. I have never been a Conlin fan and reluctantly voted for his nomination because of a dearth of good candidates.

In the election itself, I voted for Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun, whom I have long admired for his contribution to baseball knowledge and understanding in Canada. Conlin, however, won the election, outdrawing Elliott 188 votes to 160 in one of the closest outcomes since the current format was adopted in 2000. Elliott won this year.

...Conlin is a different issue and would take much more serious consideration. He is accused of committing an act far more abhorrent than using steroids or testosterone, and the writers should not be in the position of celebrating someone who allegedly is a child molester. But more time and more information are needed to sort out the sordid allegations and allow us to make an informed, intelligent decision. Conlin won’t have a trial, but he will have an opportunity to acquit himself. I’m skeptical, but I’m willing to listen.

Holidays mean family time for ballplayers | MLB.com: News

Merry Christmas!

They treasure those “opening” days of holidays past, filled with joy by presents ranging from Jered Weaver’s first drum set to Mike Matheny’s BB gun to Vinnie Pestano’s original PlayStation 2 to Bruce Chen’s huge robot in Panama and Drew Storen’s two gloves from Dad each year.

They hold onto traditions and start new ones as families grow. It’s that Christmas Eve with midnight church hymns for Matt Thornton, a Cuban feast with smoked pig every Dec. 24 for Fredi Gonzalez. It’s Joe Girardi hiding “the Holiday Pickle” on their tree and Nick Hundley’s mom hiding a special ornament on theirs to “let you get a bunch more presents.”

Phil Rogers: Balance of power heads West

Won’t You Be My West Coast Neighbor?

We still don’t know if baseball is going to have one or two wild cards in each league next season — the longer this goes without an announcement, the more it looks like the expanded format won’t be used until 2013 — but we can say this: Teams from the American League East better win the division if they want to get into the playoffs.

Finishing second in the AL East has gotten the Red Sox (seven wild-card appearances), Yankees (four), Rays and Orioles into the playoffs 13 of 17 tries in the wild-card era, which began in 1995. But after quiet, seemingly content offseasons in terms of roster activity, the Yankees and Red Sox have allowed themselves to become surprisingly less relevant.

Both teams are still dangerous, of course. But they don’t have the balance of starting pitching and serious lineups that make the Rangers and Angels the teams to beat in 2012. For that matter, the Tigers appear stronger than the Red Sox and Yankees, and the Rays have so many young stars — including Rookie of the Year favorite Matt Moore, who recently signed a five-year, $14 million contract with only 17 days big-league service time — that you could rank the Red Sox and Yankees fifth and sixth in the AL, in whichever order you prefer.

MLB teams haven’t finished shopping yet - Sports - The Boston Globe

A nice breakdown of the remaining free agents.

You want established pitching? Then you will pay through the nose for it.

That’s the precedent set by the deals that transpired before Christmas: The Rangers won the posting bid for Japanese star Yu Darvish for $51.7 million, the Reds acquired Mat Latos from the Padres for four prospects, the Nationals gave up four prospects for Oakland lefty Gio Gonzalez, and the Diamondbacks gave up three prospects for A’s righthander Trevor Cahill.

A look at what’s left for teams to go after at each position:

Justice: Baseball lucky to have had McLane around

Richie and Drayton sittin’ in Wade’s tree…

Drayton McLane slipped out the backdoor that final day in Milwaukee last month, off to a life out of the spotlight after 17 years as the owner of the Houston Astros.

I’m taking this opportunity to say now what I didn’t have the chance to say then. Thank you, Drayton.

Thank you for being my friend. Thank you for making me laugh. Thank you for never having had a bad day, at least not that I could tell.

Thank you for all the times you took my calls when I was a columnist for the Houston Chronicle and working on something that now seems insignificant.

...Through it all, McLane never once failed to return a phone call. He believed that part of his responsibility as the owner of the local baseball team was dealing with reporters, even the annoying ones.

Baseball was lucky to have him for as long as it did. His legacy in baseball will be that he led the Astros at a time of their greatest success on the field, including six playoff appearances during one nine-year stretch.

Sickels: Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2012

1) Gerrit Cole, RHP, Grade A: Cole can be enigmatic and sometimes gets hit harder than he should given the quality of his stuff, but he’s still a Grade A prospect. At his best he throws strikes with three excellent pitches, and I think he’ll get more consistent. Looked great in Arizona Fall League, except for the disaster in the Rising Stars game.

2) Jameson Taillon, RHP, Grade A-: They are being very careful with his workload. As he incorporates his secondary pitches more often and builds his stamina, I expect greater dominance. Still struck out more than a hitter per inning even with restrictions on secondary pitch use.

3) Josh Bell, OF, Grade B+: Switch-hitter, should develop 30+-homer power and a high OBP. Pure hitting skills solid too. We’ll have to see about his defense and I want some pro data, but I’m very optimistic about him.

4) Starling Marte, OF, Grade B: Borderline B+. Hit well in Double-A, starting to develop more power, despite poor strike zone judgment. Superior defense. Still raw, needs a year of Triple-A, a wide range of possible outcomes, could become an All-Star, a mediocre regular, or a fourth outfielder.

5) Robbie Grossman, OF, Grade B: If he had fulfilled his commitment to the University of Texas, 2011 would have been his draft year. I know he was repeating High-A, but a player jumping from the college ranks to High-A, hitting .294/.418/.451, then ripping up the Arizona Fall League would be getting an awful lot of praise, not skepticism. I also think that Grossman’s tools are better than commonly reported. I expect he’ll provide gap power with some speed and a high OBP, and that’s valuable.

Thanks to Bucco Barnald.

Brookover: Voting for Hall of Fame too complicated these days

(crunch) HELP! HELP!! Jeff Bagwell won’t fit completely under the bus because of his “cartoonish forearms”!* (*re-recrunched from last year)

Now, thanks to the taint of the steroid era, the arrival of the ballot brings dread instead of anticipation, suspicion instead of admiration.

For the second straight year, I look at Jeff Bagwell’s name and wonder if he beat the system while he was also pounding baseballs out of ballparks all across the country. I’d love to vote for him, because he was always a class act whenever I had to interview him and his numbers scream Hall of Famer.

...I’ve listened to the argument that Bagwell should be a Hall of Famer because there is no proof he used the same performance-enhancing drugs that inflated the heads, bodies and resumes of some of his peers. I suspect, however, that there are a lot of players who cheated and never were caught. We’re going to see many of those names on the Hall of Fame ballot in the near future.

Next year, for example, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, Mike Piazza and Craig Biggio are going to be among the first-time candidates. Based solely on their bodies of work, they all deserve to be first-ballot inductees. That fact alone says something about the steroid era because there have never been more than three first-ballot inductees in the same year, and that happened only once.

...For at least one more year I took on the task anyway.

Here are the guys who got my vote: McGriff, Barry Larkin, Lee Smith and Alan Trammell.

Oakland Athletics Will Be Granted Permission To Move To San Jose, According To Report

Rosicrucia

n

l Park!

The Oakland Athletics may not be in Oakland for much longer, if new reports about the prove true: USA Today writer Bob Nightengale reports that sources say the Athletics will be granted permission to move to San Jose by February.

This move has been a possibility simmering on a back burner for some time now; Rob Neyer wrote about the potential of the San Jose A’s in September. But while it has been a possibility for many years, with the A’s looking to improve their accommodations from the outdated O.co Coliseum to a new ballpark and/or get out from under the shadow of the successful San Francisco Giants, this new approval may accelerate a timeline to get the A’s out of the city they have called home since 1968.

MASN: Duquette on Prince Fielder: “We’re monitoring the market”

...and we hope to get him in Baltimore during the twilight of his career!

I mentioned that Baseball America projected Ryan Flaherty to be the club’s designated hitter in 2015.

“Flaherty’s a pretty good player,” Duquette said. “He had 20 homers and 30 doubles last season (between Double-A and Triple-A), which speaks to the quality of his bat. That’s a lot of extra-base knocks. I kept hearing that we got a good bat, and that came from some other clubs. And I like that he’s from Maine. Those guys are really dedicated to the game.”

I couldn’t let Duquette off the phone without bring up Prince Fielder’s name again. Heck, everyone else is doing it.

“We’re monitoring the market,” Duquette said. “That’s a good way to put it.”

So to review: The Orioles retain interest in Fielder, but not at his current price. It will have to change dramatically.

They’re not “out,” so they must be “in.” But they shouldn’t be classified as a favorite to sign him at this point.

Torrealba Strikes Umpires

He must have forgotten it’s the Christmas season.

Bill James Online: Elston Howard

I’m not saying that Elston Howard was slow-footed…but the old Elston Howard Travel Agency in Fort Lee, NJ. did have a contract with Dinghy Cruise Lines.

Maybe they could all go in at the same time? Elston Howard? I was a wee lad, but hindsight suggests there was perhaps no greater beneficiary of the Yankee mystique in All Star and MVP voting than Howard.

I’ll look at that MVP race, but few players in history suffered more from circumstances than Howard.  First, he played in Yankee Stadium, which at that time was huge to left field, and he hit far, far better on the road than in his home park. ... one of the largest home field DISadvantages of any player who ever played (will detail shortly.)  Second, although he was a player of immense ability he was past 30 before he got a chance to play regularly, because he was trapped for years behind the greatest catcher of all time. Third, of course, he was a black player; I think Elston was three years younger than Duke Snider, but whereas Snider was in the majors by 1947 and was finished with his prime by 1956, Howard (although he made the All-Star team in 1959) wasn’t really a regular until 1961.  Howard really was only a few years younger than Berra.

The 1963 MVP race. ....there just really wasn’t an MVP season in that league.  I think the true MVP might actually have been Tom Tresh or possibly Carl Yastrzesmki, but Tresh and Yaz didn’t really have MVP seasons, either; it’s just a question of somebody has to win, and Howard’s probably not a bad pick.

Howard’s home/road splits. ..In 1959 he hit .237 with 5 homers, 21 RBI at home, .305 with 13 homers, 52 RBI on the road.  In 1962 his average was pretty even (.275 at home, .283 on the road) but he hit 3 homers, drove in 31 runs at home, as opposed to 18 and 60 on the road.  In 1963 he hit .263 with 10 and 37 at home, .300 with 18 and 48 on the road.    In 1964 he hit .279 with 3 homers, 35 RBI at home, .344 with 12 homers, 49 RBI on the road.    In 1965 he hit 9 homers—all of them on the road.    In his career he hit 54 home runs at home, 113 on the road.

Cowlishaw: How I voted for this year’s Baseball Hall of Fame

Hold the Cowlishaw! Dash of this, undash of that…ta-da!

One. Jeff Bagwell – I didn’t vote for him last year but thought later that it was a mistake. Sometimes I hold it against a hitter when he doesn’t have that many All-Star Game appearances. Bagwell made only four. But he played at a position where there was often a crowded field of great hitters and, in some cases, players later believed to have been using performance-enhancing drugs (looking at you, Mark McGwire).

Two. Barry Larkin
Three. Edgar Martinez
Four. Tim Raines
Five. Larry Walker

...As for one strong candidate who failed to get my support, I declined to vote for Jack Morris this year after voting for him in 2010. He was an outstanding big-game pitcher without question. He won memorable World Series games, to be sure.

I think the image of the man and what we remember is a bit different from the career numbers, however. Yes, he won 254 games while pitching for some good teams over a long period of time. But he had a 3.90 earned run average even though his career ended in 1994 which was really just the start of the steroids era in which the offensive numbers in major league baseball went through the roof.

Morris seldom had the lowest ERA in his own rotation and was over 3.50 11 times in his 18-year career. We remember him leading the Tigers to the ’84 World Series and throwing that marvelous Game 7 shutout for Minnesota in ’91. For his career, Morris was 7-4 in the post-season with a 3.80 ERA. That’s a lot closer to “good” than “great.”

Facts, not memories. That should be the priority in determining how we vote, and the facts say Morris comes up just short.

Schulman: Giants: The winter of our disconnect

Coherentism rocks! Sabean’s team-building philosophy rolls!

I’m bringing up ancient history because it is very relevant this morning in illustrating Sabean’s team-building philosophy.

Sabean always has believed that it makes little sense to have one or two big players if the supporting cast is weak. He would rather own a room full of toys than one Xbox 360. He was ripped for that philosophy in 1996, ripped for it again after the 2003 season when he didn’t make a move for Vlad Guerrero and is being ripped for it today. But he is not budging.

...Two months later, we know it’s not going to be this way. If the Giants’ heavy lifting is over, Cabrera and Angel Pagan will have been the primary additions for 2012. I must admit I think folks are underestimating Cabrera’s potential impact. The guy did come to bat 706 times for Kansas City last year and hit .305/.340/.470 with 18 home runs from the second spot in the order and playing 81 home games in a pitchers’ park. An outlier year? Kind of hard to say that when the guy is supposed to be 27 years old.

To compete for another division title, the Giants are banking on a healthy Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez, a fitter and more determined Huff in another contract year, Panda being Panda, a few more hits from Brandon Crawford, the potential emergence of Brandon Belt, better defense and athleticism, and the usual strong pitching staff, which largely remained intact.

Beane expects A’s to make more deals

Billy Beane’s Oakland swap meet is open and ready for business—just don’t show up on Christmas Day.

“We won’t do [any moves] on Christmas, as a matter of principle,” Beane said Friday night on a conference call after making the Gio Gonzalez trade official. “We’re still having conversations and I anticipate on having conversations [Saturday].”

“We’re trying to collect as many young players as we can,” Beane said. “I think that’s our best long-term strategy.”

...Beane made no bones that Oakland would have a hard time competing with the Rangers or Angels this season, or really in the next couple of seasons. The A’s, instead, are building for the future and know times will be difficult in the next couple of years.

“We’ve been through this cycle numerous times and it gets shorter and shorter because the gap between us and everyone else grows and grows. For us to compete, we need a new stadium,” Beane said. “I don’t think there was a move we could make to compete with the Angels and Texas in the moves they’re making. They’re going to be somewhere around $150 million payroll. We’re not a business that can put that payroll on the field. For us to catch up to Seattle we’d have to spend an extra $40 or $50 million. From our standpoint, I don’t know that there’s a move we could make to compete with them this year.”

Thanks to Lenny.

Don Malcolm: THE HALL OF FAME LOGJAM: A PERFECT STORM DISPELLED…

Haven’t gone through this yet (headwrapping Shugo Tokumaru/Black Moth Super Rainbow is time consuming!).

And what’s likeliest to happen over the course of the next few years is that the BBWAA will single out the most controversial (read: arrogant) players from the age of PEDs and make examples out of them. As a voting group, they know that it would be impolitic to bar the doors of Cooperstown to all the players from the wraparound decades (1990s/2000s). They also know (when they are not pontificating) that the Mitchell Report is not…a perfect instrument.

To leave too many of these players out of the Hall of Fame based on the unreliable evidence that has been assembled would make everyone look bad.

And thus the real catastrophe would happen in Cooperstown, New York, where the ongoing financial health of the Hall of Fame—dependent on a PR stream from new inductees—would be seriously threatened.

Though many erstwhile revolutionaries would love to see the Hall crumble into dust, they should not hold out false hope for such an occurrence. The BBWAA isn’t going to be party to that, no matter how devoutly one might wish it so. They will be stepping back from this brinksmanship and making an example of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.

And there is tremendous good fortune in the fact that the two greatest players of the “age of PEDs” will be systematically ostracized. It will force the BBWAA to examine players that would otherwise get less attention in the voting process. This will serve to sustain several worthy candidates through what will be a crowded ballot period (people like Raines and Edgar Martinez) and give them a chance to be enshrined within the fifteen year period.

NYT: Coaching, Not ‘Moneyball,’ Will Improve Teaching

I love the part where Brother Constance gets socked in the jaw!

However, despite a bevy of superstars and data-driven prognostications for success, the 2011 Red Sox fell short of the playoffs for the second consecutive year. Sports pundits were quick to suggest that the team’s shortcomings came neither in talent nor ability, but in leadership, team chemistry and effective coaching.

This made me think about my workplace. So much of the conversation about school reform has focused on the themes of data and testing-based measures of teacher quality; competition among both teachers and schools; and the eradication of teacher tenure and guaranteed pay raises. These policies, the argument goes, would compel better teaching and thus lead to better schools.

But there is something missing from this equation, just as it was missing from this year’s Red Sox.

...Statistics tell a great story on paper. We can use all of the advanced metrics we want to assess an individual’s efficacy. We can adjust someone’s pay based upon past performance. And we can make it easier to replace those we no longer deem suitable for the job.

But it is harder to quantify a team of engaged practitioners, led in their collaborative efforts to excel by fellow practitioners who know the craft well.

I’m a Red Sox fan. Trust me: I know.

Top 15 Prospects: Boston Red Sox | FanGraphs Baseball

Top prospect lists filled with players with no professional experience are usually suspect.

The Boston Red Sox top prospects list has undergone an upheaval over last season’s like no other. Only one player in the Top 10 (Ryan Lavarnway) appeared on the list a year ago, which accounts for an unprecedented amount of movement. The list lost just one prospect to graduation (Josh Reddick) while the other eight players either lost value or were surpassed by more promising talent. The good news for the system is that it still has a fair bit of depth and some of the players who stumbled in 2011 could rebuild their prospect value in ’12.

Megdal: David Wright’s future should include the Hall of Fame, not the Colorado Rockies

After finally solving the troublesome Bob Aspromonte Hall Problem…the Mets want to do what?!

Among third basemen through age 28, David Wright is seventh all-time in OPS+ with 134. That’s not seventh all-time among Mets third basemen—that’s seventh among all third basemen in M.L.B. history. The only six ahead of him are Eddie Mathews, Frank (Home Run) Baker, Wade Boggs, George Brett, Chipper Jones and Mike Schmidt. That’s five Hall of Famers and in Jones, a clear sixth. The man just behind Wright, Ron Santo, just got elected to the Hall of Fame as well.

It’s often remarked that Wright is in some kind of premature decline. And sure, facts are facts: Wright was a star from 2004-2008, but in the past three years—since Citi Field opened—he’s been relatively pedestrian.

...Looking ahead, if Wright is to return to his 139 OPS+ levels of 2004-2008, he’ll be in extremely select company. Only Mike Schmidt, Alex Rodriguez (who famously moved from shortstop to third base for Derek Jeter), George Brett and Wade Boggs produced that well at third base from ages 29-32. In all four cases, they improved their production over what they’d posted through age 28, or in Brett’s case, simply maintained. In all four cases, that defies baseball’s aging curve.

Of the other three third basemen who’d been better than Wright, ever, Chipper Jones also improved from age 29-32 relative to his OPS+ through age 28. Frank Baker actually retired for a season after turning 28, came back after a year layoff, and was never the same. Only Eddie Mathews among these elite third basemen followed the typical aging curve, with an OPS+ of 153 through age 28, 138 from ages 29-32.

True Value, Part II: Press Your Luck

Luck essentially removes the explanatory responsibility for any glitches in the sabr-matrix, which is irresponsible science on the part of those whose goal is to study the inner-workings of the sport. There are some tasks for which box score statistics are ill-suited, and it would be more appropriate to say that our measurement tools fall short of perfect reliability, particularly with respect to the interaction of pitching, hitting, and fielding. Yet ignoring such constructs is at the core of modern concepts such as DIPS theory, as well as pitching statistics that eliminate from consideration any play that necessitates a fielder’s glove.

Couldn’t have said it better myself.