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Tuesday, May 27, 2008

2008 MLB Draft Preview: Scouting First Baseman Justin Smoak

Breaking down the swing of the draft’s top first base prospect:

We see the initial hand load as Smoak shifts his weight forward. Notice as he is moving forward, the bat stays connected with his body indicating a relatively short swing. This also gives you an indication of how strong Smoak’s wrists are.

We can also see Smoak firmly plant his front foot and then turn aggressively on that front leg. He lets his hips and hands rotate together as opposed to achieving extension, which is when the batter lets their hands get out in front to meet the ball, sapping the player of much of their power....

...You know what you’re getting with Smoak: a first baseman with plus power at both sides of the plate with the potential to hit between 30 and 40 homers on a yearly basis. He may not get much better, but he is already very good as is.

NoVaO Posted: May 27, 2008 at 05:36 AM | 11 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralAmateurCollegeMinor LeaguesProspect ReportsScoutingBaltimoreChi White SoxSan FranciscoWashington

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   1. 3Com Park Posted: May 27, 2008 at 10:23 AM (#2795404)
Did someone say "Lance Berkman"?
   2. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 27, 2008 at 10:29 AM (#2795413)
I'm about as far from an expert scout as you can possibly get, but I absolutely love Smoak's swing. I think he's going to make whichever team takes him very, very happy.
   3. Reed's Johnson Posted: May 27, 2008 at 10:42 AM (#2795431)
Is his bat Ryan Zimmerman insta-callup material? If he's expected to shoot to the bigs quickly I'd love to see him in Washington.
   4. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 27, 2008 at 10:53 AM (#2795447)
"Is his bat Ryan Zimmerman insta-callup material?"

That's a pretty high bar. I'm probably too conservative to predict that for anybody.

I do think he could be in the bigs by the tail end of 2009, if everything goes right.
   5. Shooty: Now rated AAA by Moody's and S&P! Posted: May 27, 2008 at 11:05 AM (#2795461)
Does anybody know if the A's really have a chance to sign Smoak out of highschool and were just cheap, or was he going to college no matter what. I've heard about a thousand versions of this story and have no idea what to think about it.
   6. The Orodruin of DOOM Posted: May 27, 2008 at 11:12 AM (#2795462)
This is what Beane had to say about it in Jan 07:

Blez: There have been different reports about what happened in the negotiations between you and Justin Smoak. Smoak's turned into a great prospect. Baseball America reported that he wanted $1 million and that you were offering $950,000. Was it ever really that close?

Beane: (Laughs) No, no. I'll try and give you the Reader's Digest answer. We never even made an offer to Justin. In fact, when we drafted him, we drafted him late. He was projected to go in the first or comp round. To his credit, he made it quite clear the amount of money that he was interested in signing for. We just said we'd draft the kid late just in case there was some point during the summer he changed his mind. Quite frankly, I'd spoken to him and he's a great kid. I know his coach a little bit at South Carolina and we at no point were trying to bribe him out of his scholarship because it's a great university. To put it plainly, we said we look forward to seeing you in three years, go out and have a great career. In fact, Justin and I had a conversation at one point even though he had a number that he wanted he was very committed to going to South Carolina and I congratulated him on that decision. We never even made an offer. That was total fiction. I can assure you that if we were between $950,000 and a million dollars we would've found a way to get it done. I was a proponent of the kid going to school. He was committed and he's a South Carolina kid. I think some of the college programs are a great developer of talent and I'm a big fan of these kids going and coming out three years later.


http://www.athleticsnation.com/story/2007/1/31/12213/8750
   7. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 27, 2008 at 11:14 AM (#2795464)
"Does anybody know if the A's really have a chance to sign Smoak out of highschool and were just cheap, or was he going to college no matter what."

He said before the draft that he wanted a million bucks to sign, and they took him late to try and see whether he'd come down from that to something that was smaller (but still above slot). He didn't, so they didn't sign him.

[Edit: Or what Winnie said.]
   8. Shooty: Now rated AAA by Moody's and S&P! Posted: May 27, 2008 at 11:19 AM (#2795469)
He said before the draft that he wanted a million bucks to sign, and they took him late to try and see whether he'd come down from that to something that was smaller (but still above slot). He didn't, so they didn't sign him.

Damn. Seems like a million bucks would have been a bargain. No way the A's are getting him now.
   9. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 27, 2008 at 11:30 AM (#2795479)
"Damn. Seems like a million bucks would have been a bargain."

Yeah, but in fairness, if any other team thought he was worth a million bucks at that time, they would've taken him in the late first or sandwich round. It's not a misjudgment that's exclusive to the A's.
   10. Shooty: Now rated AAA by Moody's and S&P! Posted: May 27, 2008 at 11:40 AM (#2795493)
Yeah, but in fairness, if any other team thought he was worth a million bucks at that time, they would've taken him in the late first or sandwich round. It's not a misjudgment that's exclusive to the A's.

True. I'm just retroactively bummed about it.
   11. SantoFan Posted: May 27, 2008 at 12:55 PM (#2795578)
Giants, please!
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