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Thursday, May 26, 2005

Seattle pi: Zumsteg: Different beginnings for Beltre, Sexson

Beltrench Fever...don’t catch it!

On Adrian Beltre ...if he keeps up at this pace it would be, by far, the worst year of his career since he started to play full time in 1999. It’s far worse than the half-year he came up and even worse than the year after he almost died because of a botched surgery. Even the most skeptical of critics who thought he was a one-shot wonder last year didn’t think he’d look this bad.

Thanks to Only Villone-ly

Repoz Posted: May 26, 2005 at 06:04 PM | 21 comment(s)
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   1. NTNgod Posted: May 26, 2005 at 07:18 PM (#1364188)
That's not much better than we got out of Scott Spiezio last year, but it's still better than Jeff Cirillo. Man, that guy was bad! (.205 batting average! 2-0-5! With no power!)

In 2005:
PA BA OBP SLG HR
Beltre 179 .238 .263 .372 5
Cirillo 110 .284 .387 .421 1</pre>

And I think the Mariners may still paying part of Cirillo's $7 mil this year (Brewers are paying $316K). Ouch! :P
   2. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: May 26, 2005 at 07:21 PM (#1364199)
Its just been a miserable year for AL West 3B. Only Blalock is performing at expectations.
   3. With 17th Pick, From LA, 1k5v3L KcoLLoP Posted: May 26, 2005 at 07:23 PM (#1364205)
Jeff Cirillo only hits with the Brewers. Must be the bratwursts.
   4. Hey, it's what Johan uses (Matt) Posted: May 26, 2005 at 08:13 PM (#1364366)
DePodesta is a moron!
DePodesta has carpal-tunnel from being on the computer!
DePodesta poops his pants!

Not.
   5. Chris Dial Posted: May 26, 2005 at 08:17 PM (#1364372)
cough cough hack cough
   6. With 17th Pick, From LA, 1k5v3L KcoLLoP Posted: May 26, 2005 at 08:24 PM (#1364393)
That's OK, Dial, we won't tell anyone about your man-crush on Beltre.
   7. Robert in Redondo Posted: May 26, 2005 at 08:25 PM (#1364399)
Yeah, the product that DePo has put on the field is really something to be proud of. I'll try to remember that tonight when they return to .500 and settle into fourth place.
   8. Chris Dial Posted: May 26, 2005 at 08:27 PM (#1364406)
Sure, Robert, they'd be undefeated with Beltre in the lieup.
   9. Robert in Redondo Posted: May 26, 2005 at 08:31 PM (#1364418)
Sure, Robert, they'd be undefeated with Beltre in the lieup.

Never inplied anything like that.

That was an odd response.
   10. Hey, it's what Johan uses (Matt) Posted: May 26, 2005 at 08:32 PM (#1364419)
Yeah, the product that DePo has put on the field is really something to be proud of. I'll try to remember that tonight when they return to .500 and settle into fourth place.

Sure, Robert, they'd be undefeated with Beltre in the lieup.

Plus, your ticket would be two dollars more. That's one less half of a Dodger Dog.
   11. John DiFool2 Posted: May 26, 2005 at 08:34 PM (#1364423)
How DO you tell the difference between a young
player truly moving to a new level of ability, vs.
a young player merely having a fluke season, BEFORE
the fact (i.e. before we have a full record of his
accomplishments, through say age 30)?

For example, on the one hand you have Andruw Jones
2000, when he was 23 years old, and when he set new
career highs in BA, SLG, OBP, RBIs, etc. But he
never has come within 26 points of that .303 BA
since.

Then we have as exhibit B Sammy Sosa, who was
even older than Beltran was. Clearly 1998 wasn't
a fluke in retrospect, but at the time would you
be willing to bet Sammy would be within 50 points
of his new highs in SLG and OBP the next year?
   12. Gold Star for Robot Boy Posted: May 26, 2005 at 08:38 PM (#1364433)
Said it before and I'll say it again: The best thing that could've ever happened to Beltre was bone spurs in his left ankle during his walk year. Kept him from chasing breaking pitches low and away.
   13. Dewitty_Pun Posted: May 26, 2005 at 08:47 PM (#1364458)
I remember that Bill James wrote in his historical abstact in the Larry Bowa comment that Bowa had a career year when he had a hand injury. The injury kept him from getting out in front of the pitch or something like that. He also said in that comment that there have been numerous time that players have benifited from being injured, Ted Williams for example had his best season in 1941 with a broken foot (of course, he missed what may have been his peak in WWII). Beltre obviously benifited from playing injured just like Bowa, Williams, and Three Finger Brown.
   14. NJ likes the people, the books, hates the format. Posted: May 27, 2005 at 12:03 AM (#1365077)
Only Blalock is performing at expectations.

And McPherson.
   15. NJ likes the people, the books, hates the format. Posted: May 27, 2005 at 12:08 AM (#1365088)
And McPherson homers to make me look even better, but still, the point stands.
   16. rb's team is hopeful for the new year! Posted: May 27, 2005 at 01:07 AM (#1365201)
cough steroids /cough
   17. Chris Pummer Posted: May 27, 2005 at 01:20 AM (#1365219)
Fernando Tatis must have visited Beltre and Aramis Ramirez this offseason looking to take his career back.
   18. rLr Shouldn't Have Drunk The Hot Mountain Dew Posted: May 27, 2005 at 01:30 AM (#1365233)
Kevin Maas is the king of the Injury Helped Them Team. If not for his knee brace, he would never have been a one-hit wonder.
   19. Chris Dial Posted: May 27, 2005 at 05:16 AM (#1365372)
My bet with Werr is looking pretty good about now.
   20. bob gaj Posted: May 27, 2005 at 08:06 AM (#1365415)
there was an article in the la times recently with a huge implied knock about depodesta's third base problem, and comparing it to beltre's performance last year....

amazingly, the dodgers 3b have performed about the same as beltre; better when parks are taken into consideration. so far, depo's looking good on the non-signing.
   21. Walt Davis Posted: May 27, 2005 at 09:08 PM (#1367227)
How DO you tell the difference between a young
player truly moving to a new level of ability, vs.
a young player merely having a fluke season, BEFORE the fact (i.e. before we have a full record of his accomplishments, through say age 30)?


About 30 years ago, I established my "two year rule" -- they gotta do it two years in a row before I believe it.

The two year rule has probably not helped me beat the 50/50 mark, but it sounds good. And of course, it didn't protect me from my share of irrational exuberance.

Then we have as exhibit B Sammy Sosa, who was
even older than Beltran was. Clearly 1998 wasn't
a fluke in retrospect, but at the time would you
be willing to bet Sammy would be within 50 points
of his new highs in SLG and OBP the next year?


I don't know about 50 points, but I wasn't THAT surprised. In 1994 and 1995, he was on 40-HR paces (strike years). In 1996, he was on a 50-HR pace (broken hand, missed the last 40 games of the year). (In 1997, he just flat sucked)

And I got to see a lot of Cubs games over those years. Sosa changed his hitting approch substantially in 1998, laying off some of those low outside pitches and also hitting outside strikes to right. It was a tremendous improvement in his hitting approach.

Like I said, my two-year rule didn't keep me from making those leaps of faith when Cubs were involved.
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