That curveball to Super Joe in the 8th was a beaut.

Sad sacks? Wow, that's a kick in the nuts...

Also, isn't any pitch to Super Joe a beaut?

Is there any reason why a succesful AAA pitcher shouldn't dominate the Royals?

Sad sacks? Wow, that's a kick in the nuts...

If I could kick Mariners management in the nuts I would. You gotta remember that they were on the verge of moving to Tampa Bay at the end of the '95 season, then they made the playoffs, and the legislature overturned a public vote to give them a taxpayer-funded stadium. It makes the complete and utter failure to field even a mediocre team pretty galling.

I'm really hoping Felix pitches when I go on the 30th...

Is there any reason why a succesful AAA pitcher shouldn't dominate the Royals?

Perhaps not even as impressive a feat as Jaret Wright handling the Devil Rays. Still, eleven strikeouts and one walk, nothing to sneeze at.

Even considering that it's just 3 starts, and those three starts have been against fairly horrible offenses, his performance so far has been simply incredible. He's 19 years old!

What impresses me most is how flawless his record has been. It's not just that he hasn't given up many runs, it's that he has done EVERYTHING I look for in pitcher well. He has the strikeouts (K/9 of 9.00), the control (.67 WHIP, 21/3 K/BB), the groundballs (G/F of 3.6) and he keeps that ball in the park (0 so far).

Three starts means basically nothing, but it's just amazing to me how flawless his performance has been.

Be interesting to see how he does facing a good offense, but it would seem that King Felix is indeed for real.

Fernando Valenzuela's first three starts in 1981:

27 innings pitched, 14 hits, 25 strikeouts, 4 walks, 1 Earned Run.

He beat Houston in LA, San Fran on the road, and San Diego in LA (On 3 days rest no less)

I know the folks at U.S.S. Mariner would insist that this HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE OMIGOD CAN YOU BELIEVE THIS DAVE WAS SO RIGHT WOW THIS KID IS A TRUE ORIGINAL.

He's fun to watch. I hope he lasts 20 years.

But amazingly enough some of us remember similar events. Shocking as that may seem.

Fernando Valenzuela

While I don't disagree with your sentiment (or your characterisation of some of USSM's less discriminating fanboys) it should be noted that Valenzuela was at least 21 when he debuted for the Dodgers, and probably closer to 25.

While I don't disagree with your sentiment (or your characterisation of some of USSM's less discriminating fanboys) it should be noted that Valenzuela was at least 21 when he debuted for the Dodgers, and probably closer to 25.

Fernando was probably older than his listed age. You would think that someone would come up with something in the last 25 years though.

Zach Duke was pretty impressive until his last start, and left handed too.

While I don't disagree with your sentiment (or your characterisation of some of USSM's less discriminating fanboys) it should be noted that Valenzuela was at least 21 when he debuted for the Dodgers, and probably closer to 25.

Given that Fernando's "official" age when he debuted with the Dodgers was 19, the above statement assumes that he fudged his age by at least 2 years and possibly as much as 6 years. While the former is possible, the latter strikes me as utterly ludicrous. That would beat even my Aunt Bertha's world age-fudging record.

It's all the more ludicrous if you followed Fernando's career closely. Look at photos and film of him from 1981 -- he scarcely looks 16, much less 26. Unlike, say, Albert Pujols, Valenzuela during his rookie year looked and acted exactly like you'd expect a 20-year-old to look and act.

Also, it's noteworthy that Fernando is still pitching professionally at the "official" age of 44. If you're saying he fudged his age by six years, that would mean we've now got a 50-year-old pitcher -- and a historically significant phenomenon -- on our hands.

Lastly, unrelated to the age issue, King Felix has little chance of getting off to a career start as impressive as Valenzuela's. On May 8, 1981, Valenzuela's career ERA stood at 0.22 in more than 80 innings of work. He had also completed every single game he started. When Felix reaches that point, you can color me duly impressed. ;)

Yes, Enders, but what does Valenzuela have to say about LA's chances to finish 20 games ahead of AZ this year?

Fernando Valenzuela's first three starts in 1981:

27 innings pitched, 14 hits, 25 strikeouts, 4 walks, 1 Earned Run.

He beat Houston in LA, San Fran on the road, and San Diego in LA (On 3 days rest no less)

Thankfully, I'm sure there were plenty of old farts around to throw cold water on any Dodger fans that actually had the nerve to get excited about it.

Kurt:

I resemble that remark!

Eric:

Amen to that. I had just wandered back to this thread, read that comment, and was ready to retort when I saw your very concise post. Muchas gracias.

I miss Fernando. See, Felix is workmanlike. Valenzuela was a gas to watch. The kid had flair. Real panache.

I miss him..............

I miss him..............

I would, too, except I hear his voice almost every day thanks to Gameday Audio.

So if Valenzuela was only 19-20 yrs old when he started putting up those gaudy numbers (Cy young, rookie of the year 1981, etc.) why wasn't his career better? He had a pretty good career, but nothing like those early years suggest. Anyone know?

bref stats:
Valenzuela

Off the bat, I say Valenzuela befriended Strawberry.

Great example, Harvey. Still, if Felix is "only" Fernando, the Mariners should (and will) be very fortunate.

Who was in the "bidding war" for Hernandez when he was 17?

Eric, while I'm not accusing Fernando of anything, it wouldn't be unprecendented for a ballplayer to be guilty of significant birthdate tweaking.

BTL, besides injuries, not all players/people follow the same aging pattern (even if they do so collectively). I think people have invested too heavily in the 'peak at 27' idea.

BTL, besides injuries, not all players/people follow the same aging pattern (even if they do so collectively). I think people have invested too heavily in the 'peak at 27' idea.

Thanks for the response. However, F.V. had ERA+ of 134, 121 his first two years, only one other year later that high (143), except for a 45 IP season late in his career. VERY early peak, even if he were one or two years older than listed age. Of course, if he were much older it would be different.

He seems to have been done by age 30, out of baseball then IIRC, made a moderately successful comeback. But I can't remember if injuries played a role or what.

Apart from that, I think it's generally true that pitchers who are very good at 19 or 20 don't tend to have very long careers. Apart from Fernando there's Gooden, Bob Feller, Don Gullett, Gary Nolan, Rick Ankiel...

levski:

What is meant by your comment in post 18??

Post 17:

You mean besides the fact that LaSorda worked him like a mule? The guy was 1 or 2 in Complete Games in 6 out of 7 years before falling apart.

So if Valenzuela was only 19-20 yrs old when he started putting up those gaudy numbers (Cy young, rookie of the year 1981, etc.) why wasn't his career better? He had a pretty good career, but nothing like those early years suggest. Anyone know?

Well, he blew has arm out in 1988. He also had a gigantic Lasordan workload in his formative years. Beyond that, I couldn't tell you.

I wouldn't really call Bob Feller's career short...

I'd guess levski's post in 18 was a tongue-in-cheek suggestion that Fernando took to powdering his nose.

Harveys, a suggestion that another young phenom, Gooden, was ruined by his friendship with Straw; or rather, their mutual friendship with a few pushers of Colombian origin...

Fernando's out pitch was the screwball, which doesn't lend itself to long careers.

Oh hell, I had a big post here and lost it.

Anyway, just look at Fernando's innings pitched and batters faced through age 25. He was facing over 37 guys a start (Craig Wright recommended 25 for young pitchers in The Diamond Appraised), and using Tango's Extended Pitch Count Estimator (it's on his site, I'm not looking up the link again) average 120.5 pitches per start before his 26th birthday.

In addition, his ERA+'s were highly inconsistent, and his age 26 season was a 100, and he didn't cross it again until much later in his career.

So that's what happened, I believe.

I wouldn't really call Bob Feller's career short...

You're right. He was basically finished as an effective pitcher when he was 32, but due to his early start his career wasn't short. I could have phrased it better.

Well, he blew has arm out in 1988. He also had a gigantic Lasordan workload in his formative years.

Or, put another way, in 5 of his first 7 years, he was 1st or 2nd in batters faced (and the other two he was 3rd and 5th).

Is it surprising he blew his arm out in '98?

Fernando's out pitch was the screwball, which doesn't lend itself to long careers.

But it makes him really good in RBI Baseball.

He looks 20 to me

Apart from that, I think it's generally true that pitchers who are very good at 19 or 20 don't tend to have very long careers. Apart from Fernando there's Gooden, Bob Feller, Don Gullett, Gary Nolan, Rick Ankiel...

How did Feller and Gooden get lumped into that group?

Gary Nolan --best comp age 21, 22, was Valenzuela --his career must have ended due to injury/too much workload? Wow, he was really good at an early age too, and career ended before age 30.

Gullett --pretty sure that Gullett had injuries.
Ankiel -- lost it quickly, more like Blass.
Gooden -- yeah we know.

Valenzuela's age 30 most similar bref: Steve Carleton.

I think Feller was a joke.

Fine, Feller was a bad example. I take it back.

L'homme: That picture looks like a Muppet.

They all look 20 to me.

They all look 20 to me.

That picture is great on so many levels.

Speaking of Edwin Jackson, if you're rich and enjoy hanging hideously ugly objects in your living room, I've found something for you:

http://tinyurl.com/9exgb

Crap. Not only did I post #40 in the wrong thread, I posted it on the wrong damn website.

[slaps self in face]

I sure as hell can relate to what Mariners' fans are thinking/feeling. You've got this really special player, who all himself represents your hopes for a turnaround of the franchise's fortunes. He's young. He's hyped. He's living up the billing!

Believe me, there is nothing you're feeling about Felix that I didn't feel about Doc. Sometimes, you just know. And at the time, the Mets had been sucky for a lot longer than the Mariners have lately.

After Gooden's brilliant 1985 season, he was on the cover of Time in April 1986. I brought it back to the law school, held up the cover to show to a friend and fellow Mets' fan, and simply uttered what was then Time's slogan:

Read Time, and understand.

Gary Nolan --best comp age 21, 22, was Valenzuela --his career must have ended due to injury/too much workload?

Shhh! Someone might hear.