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I guess this is as good a time as ever to trade him.
You'd have to figure that they'd acquire pitching in another deal for Delgado or Pierre.
Maybe both, it would be like '98 all over agian.
If it happened, and Beckett stayed healthy, would this push the Angels to third place in 2006?
Hmmm...Patterson and Williams? Even after all the Cubs moves, I still think they like Williams. Mitre is available. Mitre and Patterson for Pierre seems like it would work for both team.
And the Marlins are going to be what next year? Cabrera and a bunch of random junk? I mean Blalock ain't bad, but still.
If the Marlins are really going to trim payroll to around 50 million dollars, that means they basically have to trade Delgado. How many other teams can really absorb that kind of salary and have a spot for Delgado? I read somewhere that right now the only teams interested the Orioles and the Mets. If the Orioles somehow drop out of the hunt, the Mets are sitting pretty. There's a real chance that the Mets can get Delgado without giving up a whole lot. What other teams might am I missing?
Bring it on ! ! ! !
Isn't this kind of like saying the Marlins are close to trading Beckett if the other team would quit being so damn stubborn and just give the Marlins what they want?
I wish the Red Sox could get in on this deal. Try to acquire Blalock, whose stock has been plummeting since after the 2004 all-star break, for Papelbon and Hanley? It seems like not only has Blalock's plate discipline worsened but his swing looks like a one-handed topspin backhand. I hope that's good enough though it's lacking in proven major league talent for a proven major leaguer. I love Papelbon's focus with men on base but Beckett's only one year older. And then trade Lester (as good a prospect as any of Texas' best) and Blalock for the Florida package. I guess in the end Texas might think Beckett and Lowell is better than Papelbon and Hanley plus keeping their pitching prospect.
The White Sox -- I've seen his name mentioned a couple of places as someone they'd like to get.
Case in point, the Marlins are going to try and acquire about 5 first basemen so that they may "corner the market" and drive up the price for Delgado. Brilliant.
That's the way I read it too. I think the reason they reported it as almost done is that they consider all-star game MVP first baseman Hank Blalock to be the best player in the deal, which is a clue that the writer might not follow baseball that closely. The hassle about minor-leaguers can't be a big deal if Texas has already agreed to give up a star.
What I thought was most interesting about the article was the news that Loria is brokering his own trades. Marlins fans are screwed.
I sure hope the Red Sox wouldn't even consider that. I don't think I'd trade either of those guys for Blalock, much less both.
Blalock was not a good hitter last year, and he was flat-out awful on the road. For a team with a cheap, in-house 3B solution like the Sox have in Youkilis Blalock makes little sense. And if you have to give up Papelbon (who is far ahead of Danks and Diamond on the development curve) it's definitely not worthwhile.
I guess they could trade Blalock after this trade to the Red Sox/Dodgers/Phillies for some good stuff.
For me it's a no brainer...Beckett.
Add the fact that any team trading for him gets two seasons out of him before he becomes a FA, and I can't believe the Marlins would do this deal. As others have noted, Blalock aint all that, and probably won't put up big numbers in Florida. They definitely should hold out for Texas' best pitching prospect, and feel really sure about that guy, or they should not consider this deal.
It would certainly be entertaining to see a three-way deal among three NL East teams. But I think you probably have it backwards; trading Delgado for prospects would have to happen first, because the Fish would probably have to include some of those prospects in the deal for Howard.
The Marlins' problem in dealing Delgado is the way they structured his contract. They did a relatively cheap first year, and then a spike for the rest of the contract. Teams are going to be reluctant to -- in effect -- subsidize the bargain Florida got in 2005 by paying Delgado more than his value in the out years. Thus, I believe Florida will, at least, have to make up the difference, and that will reduce their savings and hence their incentive to do the deal.
The Blalock trade makes sense from the Marlins' POV, because I don't think they can afford to do a house-cleaning for just prospects. They'd draw 5,000 a game if they did that for the second time in a decade. If they lose Burnett, and then trade Beckett and Delgado for nothing that helps the major league club now, they will be dead. It doesn't matter if Blalock is really that good; the key is to get someone like him who is cheaper than the guy he's replacing and perceived to be a strong talent. Similarly, in a Delgado deal, they'll need to get back young pitchers -- but NOT so young they're two years away. Young in the Heilman/Seo or Bedard mold.
If the Mets are sending Heilman/Seo or the O's are sending Bedard, the Marlins are going to have to eat a big portion of Delgado's salary. Personally, I'd rather send them Brian Bannister and pay most of Delgado's salary.
Evidently the same thing that happened to Lowell
That's exactly the kind of trade I think the Marlins cannot do. They need major-league ready talent in return for Delgado/Beckett. Cheap, certainly, but major-league ready.
Plus, that would be just cruel to Bannister. It would put him in a position where the Marlins have no choice but to include him in their rotation sometime in 2006, when he's (a) not ready, and (b) not that good. Even if he's technically traded for Delgado, he'll be seen as part of the patch job of replacing Beckett/Burnett -- and he is massively unlikely to be able to handle that task. It'd be ugly.
That's why we'll give them Nady too.
I've asked a couple of places, what is a healthy Wood worth? Was is Wood worth right now with the health uncertainty? Wood currently has a no-trade clause (and is going to make $10.5mil this season). However, there's a team option for 2007 for $12.5mil that would have been auto picked up if Wood reached a certain inning plateau (which obviously can't happen now). If that option were guaranteed, he might consider being traded. But does any team want to risk paying Wood that much to get hurt? And if so, they're not going to give up much for him.
Well, for one thing they're at a different place on the success cycle. The Mets are now building off an 83-win plateau instead of a 71-win season. A typical Delgado season in 2006 is more likely to help the Mets over the hump into the post-season than his 2005 season was likely to do; it's thus (arguably) worth more.
For another, the deal is now for one year less than it would have been. If the Fish pay enough to bring the average value down to $13M/year, that's a better contract than it was last off-season because the total commitment is less.
Still, I agree with Why's basic premise. I think the Mets should be willing to pay the same per-year average they were willing to pay last year, AND give up some talent. But not all that much.
<blockquote>
You know, I wouldn't either, which I wrote just a few sentences later. My hope is that the Red Sox somehow try to get Blalock possibly in order to package him with Lester for Beckett and Lowell. Now that I think about it, I don't there's any shot Texas would take part in a three-way deal in which they don't land Beckett. I guess they're aiming for a no.1 or someone who has a good shot of getting there and Blalock is a curiously fading chip they're willing to use. I doubt they're looking to trade Blalock just for young unestablished players.
Couldn't the Yankees get in on this deal? They wouldn't flinch at taking on Lowell's contract and could offer a good package of Cano and Philip Hughes who might be better than any of the pitching prospects the Marlins can hope to get.
I still think Texas should do the trade--because if you can get a pitcher like Beckett, you get him--but it's not a total ripoff, especially considering that Texas would have to take on Lowell's deal.
From the new Bill James Handbook, from 2003-2005 Arlington increased Runs by 19 percent, a 119 Run factor. Last season, it increased lefties HRs by 72 percent and 37 percent since 03.
Blalock is young, but he'd have a hell of a time adjusting to Dolphins Stadium.
2002- 30 AB .067/.176/.067
2003-139AB .209/.245/.296
2004-195AB .282/.344/.436
2005-194AB .196/.228/.356
Blalock On the Road
2002- 68AB .176/.247/.235
2003-292AB .260/.301/.435
2004-309AB .239/.323/.460
2005-334AB .231/.276/.335
As Darren pointed out, he is only 25. But there is ample reason to suspect that his perceived ceiling should be lowered a good deal. Even his defense slipped a little bit last year, (-6 FRAA in 2005, -12 for his career).
WARP Totals the last 3 seasons, 4.1, 6.1, 2.7
Yes, he's been on the DL, but primarily for blisters. I recall another Texas flamethrower with blister problems who had a long and productive career.
Other than Johan Santana what pitcher would you rather have for the next 5 years? Prior? I'd take Beckett.
From Fla's perspective, this is basically a salary dump of Lowell. Beckett is a lot to give up for salary relief.
I'll take Rich Harden, thank you.
Halladay.
I agree; even if they include one of their "top" pitching prospects.
Harden, Felix, Dontrelle and Halladay are good picks too, in my opinion.
Beckett's numbers have been helped a lot by his park. For whatever reason, his away numbers suffer relative to his home numbers more than you'd expect. Not as extreme as Burnett, but still troubling. I don't think I'd trust his ERA+ to translate away from that park. He'd still be a good pitcher, but I don't know how good.
Woah. Now that's a reason for concern. So, over the last 3 seasons, Blalock's gotten a 20 percent boost in his HRs? That would knock him back to around average as a hitter, I guess.
I also fully admit to having no idea what kind of fielder he is. Is he any good?
But there are a dozen pitchers in each league who, over the last few seasons have pitched better than Beckett has ever pitched in many more innings.
Even if he's healthy, he doesn't outpitch those guys and what's the likelihood that he's about to pitch 200+ innings?
Maybe, but I kind of doubt it.
Certain departures:
- Washburn
- B. Molina
- Salmon
Possible departures:
- Finley (though if he does indeed return his playing time should be limited)
Returnees likely to do much better than their 2005:
- Dallas McPherson
- Ervin Santana
The Angels three-peating as division winners is fairly unlikely in a season where they need to integrate a number of rookies onto the team, but I don't see the Angels being less than a second place team. (On the other hand, I picked the A's to win the AL West before the season started, so there you go.) Remember that even if the Rangers do get Beckett, they're also losing Kenny Rogers, whom Beckett would essentially replace. If the Rangers surrender Diamond or Danks, you have to believe that puts the lid on any hopes they have of improving two of their 2-4 rotation slots effectively, cheaply and internally. With Beckett's injury history, can they afford that? I don't think so, especially when they're still paying for A-Rod (and will be doing so until 2010). On the other hand, facing a 2006 season without a single quality pitcher in the rotation would be a nightmare scenario for the Rangers; they almost have to make this trade.
In other words, maybe Blalock's road stats aren't indicative of his "true" ability. Or maybe they are. I have no idea.
He had a couple good spring training starts last year. A 130:32 K:BB in 119 AAA innings is pretty good as well. His MLB numbers are respectable, though he has gopherball problems.
If so, isn't it possible that Arlington is having a "Coors" effect on them -- i.e., the park is somehow depressing their road stats by changing their approach or something?
That's doubtful. TBiA is pretty spacious but there's apparently some kind of "jetstream" effect caused by some of the superstructure that gives balls going out to RF a boost. It's possible that the park encourages bad habits in its hitters who play there, but in that respect I'd imagine it'd be no worse than Yankee Stadium (for LHB) or Fenway Park (for RHB).
No, that's a 109 run factor, as only half the games are at home.
In the majors, there was a sharp contrast between his first promotion and second promotion:
1st:
0-1 8.14ERA, 1.64 WHIP, .627SLG, .366 OBP
2nd:
3-1 1.69ERA, 0.91 WHIP, .338SLG, .244 OBP
Going forward, he's shown the ability to excel on every single level he's pitched at--great command and good stuff. The concern is his homer problems.
I'm not expecting a season to match his second-half this year, but that's a hell of an upside.
I'm pretty confident that Theo would laugh at that deal pretty hard. The new ownership? who knows. Becket's not good enough to take on Lowell and give something of value for. It'd have to be an either/or thing. Besides, Beckett is a FA in two years, no? The Red Sox will be able to sign him on the FA market if they want him.
Sure, you can sign Beckett in 2008. How does that help the Sox rotation next year?
It's already been said, but it bears repeating: Brandon McCarthy was a completely different pitcher after his second call up. Personally, i'd say he's a better bet in 2006 than Garcia and Garland, and possibly Contreras. Sure, he gives up the longball, but he strikes guys out and doesn't walk them. That's a recipe for success.
Oh, and he's young and cheap, even if he does look like Ichabod Crane.
Hey, that's just mean!
Dallas Morning News: Sources: Rangers set to deal Blalock, Danks (RR)
Rangers sources said Saturday that a deal, which has reached ownership level, would likely be done by Monday. The trade would send Blalock and top left-handed pitching prospect John Danks to the Marlins for Beckett and third baseman Mike Lowell, team sources said.
I think Florida will eat hardly any on Delgado's money - 5M would be the max. What people are forgetting is that the last 4M in the 3/48M Delgado is guaranteed is a buyout of the 12M option for '09. The option is an effective 8M (12M-4M buyout) so assuming Delgado is healthy, it's almost certain to be picked up. That gives him to you for 4/56M.
It looks like Konerko is going to cost somebody 5/65+ and their first rounder , which should not be completely overlooked. If I'm the Angels, at that price for Konerko, I definitely would take Delgado because he's cheaper and you can deal from the strength of a stacked farm system. PLUS you even have protection on the last 8M of Delgado's deal in case he gets Albert Belle's hip or something. Yes, there may only be a few teams that can afford Delgado, but it only takes two in the bidding to net the Marlins a nice return.
I don't think there is an effect on RHB in Fenway. Manny Ramirez hasn't suffered, Nomar's career home/away OPS is .938/.883. This is what I found for Rice's split:
Rice
Home: .323 BA, .379 OBP, .539 SLG
Away: .297 BA, .353 OBP, .497 SLG
(I cannot find anything for Dwight Evans or other retired players)
Yes, they all hit worse away from Fenway, but I do not think this suggests Fenway encourages bad habits. I cannot quickly think of other comps, RH power hitters who have played significant amount of their time in Fenway in the last twenty years.
PS- Millar has hit better at Fenway in the last two years, but his first year with the sox did not show a dramatic split.
He was better in his second callup, which lasted all of about 40 IP. He's a great prospect, but he's still a prospect, and doesn't belong in a discussion with Willis and Zambrano.
I just looked up Danks. He's 20 and he was good in A ball and stunk it up in AA. I'm shocked that they hesitated to give him up. (Does he have the elusive "electric, filthy stuff"?)
I HIGHLY doubt Loria is brokering the trades. According to the impressions I've gotten from occasional comments in the press, it sounds like he has never been significantly involved with shaping the baseball operations moves with the Marlins and instead appears wise enough to let his baseball guys do their thing. And with the dollar amounts involved, of course ownership is involved and has to sign off on any deal.
Rice
Home: .323 BA, .379 OBP, .539 SLG
Away: .297 BA, .353 OBP, .497 SLG
(I cannot find anything for Dwight Evans or other retired players)
Yes, they all hit worse away from Fenway, but I do not think this suggests Fenway encourages bad habits. I cannot quickly think of other comps, RH power hitters who have played significant amount of their time in Fenway in the last twenty years.
Players/FO personnel talk about getting into bad habits as a RHB at Fenway. I'd expect truly good players to be good at home and away, though, so Rice/Evans/Manny/Nomar probably wouldn't show such an effect. The way I've heard it discussed, though, I'd almost expect players to flail at Fenway as well, as they just try to pull everything. Papa Jack likes to talk about the Wall getting RHB's into bad habits and LHB's into good ones. That could just be interviewspeak, though.
Maybe visiting pitchers don't realize the "jetstream" is there so they give the hitters stuff they can pull at home that doesn't make it out on the road? Pitchers at fenway (or yankee stadium) know about the wall/short porch so they'd throw pitches that are harder to pull.
You could probably find some hitters who looked really good at Fenway/YS but looked much less impressive on the road. Jody Reed may be one for the Sox? I dunno. I haven't really looked into this, I was just throwing out a hypothesis.
I would agree that it looks like a good one for Texas. Florida seems to be taking a lot of risk here. There is now a lot of question as to whether Blalock is just a league average 3B as opposed to the All-Star of 2003. And I won't even comment on 20-year old pitching prospects.
Even a conservative estimate would have to peg Lowell for a bounceback in that park to at least .260 with about 15 HR, 75 RBI and Gold Glove defense. And barring injury, Beckett is likely to win 15-18 games. Obviously the finances played a big role in Florida's wilingness to do the deal. With Lowell and Beckett projected to make close to 30M together over the next two years.
On the one hand, I wonder how Florida can deal a young sometimes-stud like Beckett, but on the other hand it makes sense: he's going to be a free agent after '06 and it looks obvious that the Marlins won't be a legit contender until at least '07 or '08, so for him to be on the club the next time they're good, they'll have had to sign him for free agent dollars, and that just plain ain't happening considering where the market is heading with Burnett-mania. Beckett's value will never be higher than now when a team will have him for sure for two years for about 10-12M.
I also think Beckett's not going to be a FA until after 07. What they should do is sign him longterm right now: 4 years, $40 mil, with his 06 salar at $4 mil. :)
Dwight Evans
Home: .283/.379/.505
Away: .261/.361/.437
C.Yaz
Home: .306/.402/.503
Away: .264/.357/.422
R.Petrocelli
Home: .272/.354/.489
Away: .230/.312/.354(!)
I am sick and tired of guys like Tim Salmon and Albert having career ending injuries that cost their teams millions of dollars.
If Blalock is as bad as you guys claim, then this is a steal for the Rangers, unless Danks is good; I have heard nothing about him.
Year Age Lv ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WP BK h9 hr9 w9 k9
2003 18 Rk 0.69 5 3 13.0 6 3 1 0 4 22 1 4.15 0.00 2.77 15.23
2003 18 A 9.00 5 5 12.0 12 12 12 0 7 13 0 9.00 0.00 5.25 9.75
2004 19 A 5.24 13 13 55.0 62 38 32 5 26 48 3 10.15 0.82 4.25 7.85
2003 19 A 2.17 14 8 49.2 38 17 12 4 14 64 1 6.89 0.72 2.54 11.60
2005 20 A 2.50 10 10 57.2 50 18 16 5 16 53 7.80 0.78 2.50 8.27
2005 20 AA 5.49 18 17 98.1 117 66 60 12 34 85 10.71 1.10 3.11 7.78
from baseball cube
Year Age Lv ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WP BK h9 hr9 w9 k9 whip
2003 18 Rk 0.69 5 3 13.0 6 3 1 0 4 22 1 4.15 0.00 2.77 15.23 0.77
2003 18 A 9.00 5 5 12.0 12 12 12 0 7 13 0 9.00 0.00 5.25 9.75 1.58
2004 19 A 5.24 13 13 55.0 62 38 32 5 26 48 3 10.15 0.82 4.25 7.85 1.60
2003 19 A 2.17 14 8 49.2 38 17 12 4 14 64 1 6.89 0.72 2.54 11.60 1.05
2005 20 A 2.50 10 10 57.2 50 18 16 5 16 53 7.80 0.78 2.50 8.27 1.14
2005 20 AA 5.49 18 17 98.1 117 66 60 12 34 85 10.71 1.10 3.11 7.78 1.54
Even at Charlotte, though, he was a heckuva lot better in the second half. I remember being very worried in the first half, and after his first callup, about McCarthy, as his ERA was hovering around 5.50. He was giving up HR after HR, and you could see why -- he was a two pitch pitcher, and wasn't throwing (arguably) his best pitch, the changeup -- wasn't throwing it at all.
He started throwing it, and he was the Sox' second best pitcher down the stretch.
Of course, I do agree with you that he isn't quite in the league of Zambrano or Harden yet...
Although he doesn't appear to the future superstar he once, he could still attract quite a bit of interest on his own, considering his age.
Of course, when an ex-Ranger hits the market, a pair of antennae go up in Milwaukee. Doug Melvin was the GM when Blaylock was drafted. I'd wonder if he's thinking about giving the Marlins a call in a few days, considering the Brewers have an excess, cheap MI in Bill Hall, no 3B (although Hall would be the favorite entering 2006), and the Marlins have no SS.
Haven't read the whole thread, so I don't know how bad people claim Blalock is. In 2005, he was really bad. Below average hitter in an extreme hitters park, with terrible defense. Actually below replacement level overall.
That being said, he's nowhere near that bad. He should recover nicely for 2006 and beyond unless there's something really negative outside the numbers about him.
Last time I saw a player this good perform so poorly was Sammy Sosa, 1997.
Hey, that's clever. Of course, Doug Melvin really only pays attention when it's a potential bargain-bin pickup, so Blalock might not ping the radar. And Yost sure loves having Hall around, it would seem.
But it's a good idea -- Brewers can raise payroll somewhat, and Blalock could keep the position warm for '06 and maybe '07 until Ryan Braun is ready. And as long as he bounced back, he would keep Cirillo on the bench most of the time!
Sources: Marlins close to fire sale
The original proposal also called for Texas to send Florida one of two pitching prospects — John Danks or Thomas Diamond, both first-round draft picks. But the Rangers' front office has balked at losing either pitcher and is now trying to find a way to finish the deal.
...
If the Beckett trade is completed, there's a chance the Marlins will trade Blalock to another team. Blalock might not fit into Florida's long-term plans because he is owed $3 million in 2006, $4.75 million in 2007 and $5.95 million in 2008.
Now the Dallas end is reporting the Rangers caved, but the Florida side is saying the Rangers didn't.
Gotta love newspaper reporting of trade rumors!
Not even saying it would be a worthwhile idea to pursue (maybe it would, maybe it wouldn't), but I'd be shocked if Melvin didn't at least mentally kick it around, if even for a moment.
I'm half-convinced Melvin has a big red light/alarm installed over his bed - when an old Ranger changes teams (I suppose the Angels waiver wire is in the system the list now), the light flashes and a deafening alarm goes off. The wife can't be too happy about that one...
the listnow)Sanchez, on the other hand, is just two months older, has a fastball as good as Lester, maybe even better and a changeup that is considered a plus pitch. He's got the repertoire to become a better major league pitcher than Lester. On the negative side, he does have an arm injury in his history (moved nerve in elbow), he's been more homerun prone than Lester and he was an extreme flyball pitcher at High-A, though he improved at double-a.
PS The M's have the money, if not the brains, to pursue Delgado. (Would either Sexson or Delgado be willing to DH? Probably not.)
No, that's a 109 run factor, as only half the games are at home.
Admitting that you probably know way more about Park Factors than I do, I still don't understand how this can be the case. Maybe I said it wrong. I mean, if it's listed that the "Park Index" for Runs over the last 3 seasons is 119, how could that not mean that Arlington increases Runs Scored by 19 percent?
Wait...what now? Beckett is a year older than Zambrano, has a 117 career ERA+, and has never pitched more than 178 innings in a season. Zambrano has a career 132 ERA+ and has been one of the top ten starters in the NL each of the past three years. (And that's not even considering the value that Zambrano brings with his bat.)
I can't buy that. He had a VORP of 20.6--do you mean to tell me that his defense was 21 runs below replacement level? That seems next to impossible.
For me that includes all of those superstar, young pitchers of course, but also I would rather have McCarthy than Beckett going forward.
I can see people questioning that thinking, but looking at Beckett's age, injury history, park conditions, etc., I think it's justifiable.
Also, Lester is not unequivocally better than Danks or Diamond. I would have no problem with Volquez and Blalock for Albatross and Beckett. If we're dealing Danks or Diamond, then I have trouble. It's not like we're just getting Beckett. We're gettin a mediocre player who's getting a lot of money with him. And Danks struggled at high A last year. And then he was awesome there this year. Does the concept of being young for your level mean anything to some of you? And his K rate was still good, and his ERA was good their the first half he was there, until he started to struggle. And 85 strikeouts in 98 innings at the age of 20 in AA hardly shows he should be a reliever.
As for what is the problem with Blalock, it seems like he thinks adding a few homers is worth losing a ton of hits.
I don't know much about Texas' new GM but the fact he's willingly dangling Blalock makes me happy. Very happy.
Also, Blalock doesn't seem to rate well by defensive metrics and I don't think he's that good, but scouts and the fan scouting report both rate his defense well.
Actually, no--Blalock's RCAP was -4.5.
But I agree with your point about not placing too much emphasis on road stats.
Beckett dangled as trade bait
The Texas Rangers are among the teams with whom the Marlins have discussed such a deal, but according to a league source familiar with the talks, nothing is imminent. Other clubs open to a Lowell-Beckett package are the Red Sox and Tigers. The Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Pirates and Giants could enter the bidding as well.
"Somebody made it sound like it was close to happening," the source said. "That's not the case. It's really just in discussions. It's not that far down the road."
Beckett deal for Texas' Blalock near
The Marlins...have a deal on the table with the Rangers that would send Beckett and Lowell to Texas in exchange for Blalock and one of two top pitching prospects, either John Danks or Thomas Diamond.
Sources said the deal, though not final, is close. Although the Rangers are balking at parting with either Danks or Diamond, both former first-round draft picks, they are thought to be working on a separate trade with a third team for a pitcher who would then be sent to the Marlins to complete the deal.
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