Another thing that hurts home road splits are the unbalanced schedules/divisions. Blalock spends a lot of time in Seattle and Oakland, not exactly hitter's paradises. This could adversely affect his road OPS. Given that the AL West played the NL West (with more deadball type stadiums), Blalock loses the advantage that other players in his division had: namely, his road stats couldn't include TBaA.

I also think Beckett's not going to be a FA until after 07.

You're right. While I know Beckett is under control for two more years, apparently I need reminding that it's the '05 season that just ended, thus making him a free agent after '07.

What the hell happened to Blalock, anyway?

Evidently the same thing that happened to Lowell

Blalock lost a nut?

What the hell happened to Blalock, anyway?

Evidently the same thing that happened to Lowell

Blalock lost a nut?

Even at Charlotte, though, he was a heckuva lot better in the second half. I remember being very worried in the first half, and after his first callup, about McCarthy, as his ERA was hovering around 5.50. He was giving up HR after HR, and you could see why -- he was a two pitch pitcher, and wasn't throwing (arguably) his best pitch, the changeup -- wasn't throwing it at all.

He started throwing it, and he was the Sox' second best pitcher down the stretch.

I think he started to pitch better at the major league level when Chris Widger started catching him. I watched several of his games after he first got called up and he wasn't shaking off any of Pierzynski's pitches like an obedient rookie. Like a veteran skeptical of a rookie's breaking stuff, he had McCarthy throwing fastballs nearly all the time. I thought it was foolish since not only were hitters launching his fastballs but his curveball looked great. I didn't even knew he had a great changeup. After Widger took to catching him, he started doubling on his changeup, to both righties and lefties, mixing in fastballs and curveballs and he was pretty stellar. He was still homer-prone even when he was going good but at least he's got great control to limit the damage.

Spivey. Membership Posted: November 20, 2005 at 03:26 AM (#1739344)
Ok. You guys are idiots.

You lost me at hello.

I don't know if you are referring to my post #37 or not, but you are probably lumping me in with "you guys". Anyway, I think you could have come up with a better intro, don't you? ;)

Now, back to the issue at hand,in that post #37 I noted with numbers that:

1.) His performance against lefties, overall, has been poor.

2.)His performance outside of Arlington has been poor. You can choose to ignore half his at bats over a 4 year period. Personally, I think it is significant. If that makes me an idiot, than so be it. But then why bother paying attention to Park factors? I find it funny that you call people who look at home road splits idiots in one sentence and then quote park factors in the next.

Ok...fine he has a career 104 OPS+. Not bad for a third baseman, but not great by any means.

I suggested in post 37 that I SUSPECT that his perceived ceiling should be lowered. In other words, he probably is not going to be some Scott Rolen like stud. That doesn't mean he sucks. But he is probably a little overated.

(And please don't point out the comps list at baseball Ref...thats all counting stats...Rolens OPS+ ages 22-24:121-139-121 compared to Blalock 118-111-94)

Florida should do better than this for giving up Josh Beckett, but I guess you can't underestimate the value to Marlins ownership of getting out from under Lowells contract.

Blalock lost a nut?

twice, apparently.

Using retrosheet's 2004 gamelog for Blalock, I went and calculated his road/home splits for each month. He was great on the road in June and he hit for power though not average in April but he was horrible for the other months. More curious than his road/home split to me was how he lost a lot of his power in the second half at both home and the road. There were times watching him in the second half where it looked like the fences were just too far away for him. Maybe it's off-field issues, maybe he needs better conditioning but if can stop from fatiguing, he may yet reach the lofty heights that were expected for him.

2004

April: 10 home/12 away .337/.388/.568
May: 15 home/12 away .236/.325/.538
June: 12 home/14 away .367/.420/.679
July: 10 home/17 away .190/.296/.330
August:17 home/9 away .261/.357/.489
Sept: 16 home/12 away .250/.346/.389
Oct: 0 /3 away


April:
Away: 51 ABs/13 hits: .255 BA/.451 Slug/196 Iso
Home: 44 ABs/19 hits: .432 BA/.705 Slug/273 Iso

May:
Away: 44 ABs/9 hits: .205 BA/.523 Slug/318 Iso
Home: 62 ABs/16 hits: .258 BA/.548 Slug/290 ISo

June:
Away: 55 ABs/19 hits: .345 BA/.800 Slug/455 Iso
Home: 54 ABs/21 hits: .389 BA/.556 Slug/167 Iso

July:
Away: 64 ABs/12 hits: .188 BA/.313 Slug/125 Iso
Home: 36 ABs/7 hits: .194 BA/.361 Slug/167 Iso

August:
Away: 34 ABs/7 hits: .206 BA/.265 Slug/59 Iso
Home: 58 ABs/17 hits: .293 BA/.620 Slug/327 Iso

Sept:
Away: 47 ABs/9 hits: .191 BA/.361 Slug/170 Iso
Home: 61 ABs/18 hits: .295 BA/.426 Slug/131 Iso

Oct:
Away: 14 ABs/5 hits: .358 BA/.429 Slug/71 Iso

Blalock, 24, made the All-Star team his first two full seasons in the majors and has averaged 29 home runs and 97 RBI the past three years, but a source who has spoken with the Marlins said they would likely spin him to another club.

To the Twins for say Kyle Lohse, Michael Cuddyer and a prospect?

good choices on other pitchers over Beckett. I lik ehim a little or ethan most here.

I'd take Halladay and King Felix over him. Oswalt and Peavy have much better track records, so if I were a GM I'd take them, but as a fan, i think Beckett will be better. I'd also probably take Zambrano, but his max-effort delivery scares me.

Harden and Dontrelle have slightly better numbers, but I'd still take Beckett. Scouts over stats.

Beckett's major health issue is blisters and ptichers historically overcome that malady.

I'd take Rich Harden over all of them.

Maybe I said it wrong. I mean, if it's listed that the "Park Index" for Runs over the last 3 seasons is 119, how could that not mean that Arlington increases Runs Scored by 19 percent?

I don't think he's saying you're wrong there, but you don't want to adjust Blalock's numbers for the entire 119, since he only plays half his games there. Instead you would use 109, or 1095, or 110...

I use this method to calculate park factors.

To the Twins for say Kyle Lohse, Michael Cuddyer and a prospect?

You mean,


To the Twins for say Kyle Lohse, Michael Cuddyer and F. Liriano?

but a source who has spoken with the Marlins said they would likely spin him to another club.

How about to the D-Rays for Upton? Then trade Pierre and put your new $316,000 stud in CF. Hermida-Upton-Willingham. That should be decent production for a million bucks...total.

How about to the D-Rays for Upton? Then trade Pierre and put your new $316,000 stud in CF. Hermida-Upton-Willingham. That should be decent production for a million bucks...total.

Blalock for Upton? You're joking right?

Blalock for Upton? You're joking right?

No. If Upton's not an infielder (and a lot of people are starting to think he's not), then where does he play? They're not moving Crawford or Baldelli right after signing them long-term and Delmon I think has dibs on RF.

No. If Upton's not an infielder (and a lot of people are starting to think he's not), then where does he play? They're not moving Crawford or Baldelli right after signing them long-term and Delmon I think has dibs on RF.

The D-Rays could get a lot more than Blalock for Upton.

The D-Rays could get a lot more than Blalock for Upton.

More, yes, but I wouldn't say "a lot" more, and the "more" is only because of Blalock's down year.