I assume they'll spend the winter trying to maximize the return on Renteria. A year or two of a decent SP would be nice.

The bad news is that there’s no hot young pitcher on the order of Phil Hughes (Yankees) or Tim Lincecum (Giants) or even Mike Pelfrey (Mets) in the chain.

Jo Jo Reyes could be that pitcher, although he struggled in his major league experiences this year.

-- MWE

I was surpried at how awful Jo Jo was. I think the Braves were 0-6 in his 6 starts, and there is not one statistic you can look at for hope; low K rate; high BB rate; lots of HR and hits given up.

The one thing I hope the Braves remember/ take note of is that right now, based on their expected W-L instead of actual, they should be winning the division. They have had an unlucky year based in part, I am guessing, on struggling with fat-man Wickman in the pen too long and losing 50 good innings from Gonzalez.

Same deal last year, too, they drastically underperformed their pythag.

As for Braves' pitching prospects, they really concern me. They all seem to come up with good peripherals in the minors, and then for whatever reason just can't get guys out in the majors. They walk the ballpark. Guys like Odalis Perez and Jason Marquis at least went on to have some intermittent success elsewhere, but they and Kyle Davies and now Jo-Jo Reyes (and in a very small sample, Anthony Lerew) all struggled with Atlanta. Probably none projected to be a frontline starter, but the Braves could have benefited simply from a 4th starter this year. And I think they all had pretty similar stats in the minors.

The hallmark seems to be that as soon as they get to Atlanta they can't throw strikes. In the minors most of those guys had walk rates of about 3/9IP, but once they got to Atlanta they seemed to get scared or timid. For a few years I thought it was just Leo mazzone telling them to pitch like Tom Glavine (and Odalis Perez said as much when he went to LA), but it's continued since Mazzone left.

As for Hampton, lowing him for the season arguably cost the Braves any shot they had. Even had he only come back as a .500-level mediocrity (which is what I expected), he'd have been miles better than what replaced him (Mark Redman? Yeeeeeeech). The Braves' 4th/5th starter slots this year have, on the whole, been brutally bad. It's only recently that lance Cormier has pitched reasonably well (just, of course, as Buddy Carlyle turned back into Buddy Carlyle). It's been danged ugly out there.

I'm not giving up on Reyes becoming a decent pitcher, but in his wildest dreams he's not on the level on Lincecum, Hughes or Even Pelfrey.

The one thing I hope the Braves remember/ take note of is that right now, based on their expected W-L instead of actual, they should be winning the division.

The Braves have hit .294 w/ RISP versus .276 overall, so I wonder how much of that bad luck is negated by the good luck with men on. For example, while they'd be in first according to the pythag, they are still a distant second according to the baseballprospectus W3.

Have Braves fans looked around at other teams? Chris James is an acceptable third starter; he's as good as Hampton would be, save durability of about one inning per start.

I wonder how much of the pythag thing is based on extremes in performance by the rotation as opposed to actual bad luck.

Chuck James is a fine third starter, but he's not the ideal third starter given the composition of the Braves rotation. Given that the fourth and fifth spots are black holes, the bullpen gets really overworked during their turns. Though James is decent, he is a five inning pitcher, which doesn't help with the bullpen load. A third starter who isn't as effective as James, but throws more innings, would probably be a better fit for the Braves.

I'd like for the Braves to get that third guy this offseason and turn James into the fourth guy. Then Cormier, Hampton, Carlyle, Reyes, and other assorted bits of filth can fight for the fifth spot.

Also, I think it's worth mentioning that Cox has talked up Acosta and Soriano as possibilities for next year's rotation. Acosta isn't a good idea, I don't think; he was awful in the Yankees' system as a starter, and instantly became a much more effective pitcher when he went to the Braves and became a reliever. A few years have passed since then, so maybe he's different, but I like him better as a reliever. Soriano - I don't know. Could his arm hold up for 150-200 innings?

Matt Harrison was your # 1 pitching prospect coming into the year, but he really didn't have an impressive season at AA, did he? Not an eye-popping W/K ratio (34/78), not so hot on the K/IP (78/116), either. What's up with him?

We traded him for Teixiera.

Just for chits and giggles ..

8 years/$121M (01-08), plus $20M 09 club option
$20M signing bonus
$1M to charity, $19M deferred to 2009-18 at 3% interest
01:$8M - ERA+ 96
02:$8.5M - ERA+ 80
03:$11M - ERA+ 108
04:$12M - ERA+ 101
05:$12.5M - ERA+ 126
06:$13.5M - ERA+ 0
07:$14.5M - ERA+ 0
08:$15M - Projected ERA+ 0 :)
09:$20M club option $6M buyout

Colorado to pay $49M
$20M signing bonus
$8M in 2001
$8.5M in 2002
$2M in 2003
$2M in 2004
$2.5M in 2005
$6M buyout in 2009

Florida to pay $23.5M
$7M of 2003 salary
$8M in 2004
$8.5M in 2005

Atlanta to pay $48.5M
$2M of 2003 salary
$2M in 2004
$1.5M in 2005
$13.5M in 2006
$14.5M in 2007
$15M in 2008

award bonuses:
$0.15M (WS MVP)
$0.1M (CY, LCS MVP)
$50,000 (2-5 CY vote)
$25,000 (All Star, Gold Glove Silver Slugger)

Atlanta also collected a significant amount of insurance money (the rumor was about $8 million in 2006 and a good fraction of that this year). Call it $12 million total.

So, all in, this is what happened (assuming zero production from Hampton next year and zero insurance collections).
Team $_paid WARP1 $/WARP1
COL $49.0M 5.9 $8.31
FLA $23.5M 0.0 inf
ATL $36.5M 11.4 $3.20</pre>
Even as badly as the Hampton deal turned out for the Braves, they only paid $3.2M per marginal win. (btw, that table above looks great in the preview window, so its safe to assume it will look like crap once published)

Team..$_paid..WARP1..$/WARP1
COL...$49.0M....5.9....$8.31
FLA...$23.5M....0.0......inf
ATL...$36.5M...11.4....$3.20

trying again...

well with the pitchers not throwing strikes

i got a feeling the zones are different in the minors and also i think minor league hitters swing at a LOT more stuff out of the zone

at least that is what i've seen with the astros pitchers...

Hampton as closer, soriano as a starter? I don't see why soriano couldn't be one. I also don't see why cox isn't trying to stretch him out right now, since the season is over. Either that or shutting him down and resting his elbow for next year.

All that is true, but the fact is that this lineup should be much better than a .500 team if they had the RICHMOND Braves pitching staff.

Hate to say it, but they're gutless. And Hampton isn't going to fix that.

The Braves win a lot of 10-2 games, but are abysmal in 1- or 2-run games. (I haven't run the numbers, but I'd bet nearly every one of Andruw's 25 HRs had little or no affect on the outcome.)

Bobby's inability to coach even Sciosca-level small ball has cost the Braves at least ten games. If a guy like Willie Harris can't get a bunt down, one can understand why the pitchers can't do it, either. What the hell are they working on? Oh, the three-run homer.

It sure sounds like the Braves are going to keep doing what they've been doing. Guess what they're going to get?

Gonna get me crazy is what they're gonna get ...

Buddy Carlyle has an ERA+ of 84 in 103 IP. Kyle Davies, before being traded, ERA+ of 75 in 127 IP. Jo-Jo Reyes has an ERA+ of 56. in 33.7 IP.

Mike Gonzalez blew his arm out. Rafael Soriano, while decent, has not been as good as expected, ERA+ 138, whereas in the 2 previous seasons with Seattle, his ERA+ was 176, 193.

But the problem is clearly Cox's failure to play small ball.