I know he has his limitations, and his peripherals may be iffy in certain regards (like, oh, walking people), but 17-2 with a 2.93 ERA is pretty good.

Sox need to win all 3 to get the division in case we tie - is that right??

but 17-2 with a 2.93 ERA is pretty good.

It is, but as you state those walks are brutal. Every time this guy pitches I have heart palpitations. If there is a statistic for getting yourself in and out of jams then this guy must hold the record. I've never seen a pitcher give up less runs with 2 men on in all my years of watching baseball. How many runners does he leave on base per start? per inning? Anyone know this, or more willing to do the work?

Sweet mother of Jesus. That's brutal.

Why doesn't Matsuzaka just pitch from the stretch?

The Red Sox have done a great job nailing down the Pythagorean title for the AL. Once you account for league differences, I think we can safely say that the Red Sox are the best team in baseball, and that any losing result in the playoffs is the result of luck, not of any positive qualities held or displayed by the opposing team.

Sox need to win all 3 to get the division in case we tie - is that right??

Sweeping the series clinches tiebreaker advantage. If the Sox split the next two, they'll finish the season series 9-9 and it goes to best divisional record. The Devils Rays are 8 games over .500 at the moment to the Red Sox 6 over, but Boston has six divisional games left and Tampa has seven, so it's possible that could be the difference. It's also possible that method could also produce a tie, which would then force the use of the third tiebreaker, best record in the last half of intraleague games. Assuming this means the final 72 games of the season, the Sox would win this tiebreaker, as they trailed Tampa by two/four games after 90 games.

Last half of intraleague games? Really? How truly bizarre is that? I know it's going to sound crazy but how about run differential?

Last half of intraleague games? Really? How truly bizarre is that? I know it's going to sound crazy but how about run differential?

I agree it sounds odd. But that's how it's laid out at BBRef.

And if they're still tied after that, they simply go back one game at a time in intraleague contests (non head-to-head contests) until a winner is identified.

And the tiebreaker after that is away goals.

Just a quick correction if anyone cares - Boston has 8 division games left including the two against the Rays, the Rays have 6 left including the two against the Sox. They'd have to split the last two head-to-head for division record to matter, so the Sox would have to go 4-2 against Tor and NY if Tampa goes just 2-2 against Bal. And they'd have to have opposite records against their non-division opponents in order to be tied overall.

That sounds complicated and unlikely, but I think it's actually quite plausible.

All this is only in a case where both teams will go to the playoffs anyway, right?

dave h is correct. I was thinking TB had another series left besides the 4-game set with Balt., but they don't. And I was excluding the non TB-Bos games in my divisioinal countdown, since those games have to be split for the divisional records to matter.

All this is only in a case where both teams will go to the playoffs anyway, right?

Yes. If they're passed by the Central runner-up, then it's just a playoff.

And if they're tied with the Central runner-up, see the NL East thread and subtract by one team.

Yes. If they're passed by the Central runner-up, then it's just a playoff.

And if they're tied with the Central runner-up, see the NL East thread and subtract by one team.

Now I appreciate the thoroughness of the posters here as much as the next guy, but now you're all just getting silly.
Neither of those things is going to happen. Both the Rays and BoSox are going in comfortably.

Neither of those things is going to happen. Both the Rays and BoSox are going in comfortably.

No argument.

I agree. A few weeks ago I would have said if the Sox win division, then TB would probably be out, but CHI and MIN have performed worse than I expected.

It is, but as you state those walks are brutal. Every time this guy pitches I have heart palpitations. If there is a statistic for getting yourself in and out of jams then this guy must hold the record. I've never seen a pitcher give up less runs with 2 men on in all my years of watching baseball. How many runners does he leave on base per start? per inning? Anyone know this, or more willing to do the work?

The thing with Dice K is that this year, his hit rate is really, really low without his BABIP being absurdly unsustainable (.265 BABIP). I have no idea if his pattern of pitching is tenable in the long term, but this year at least it appears to me that he's willing to allow the walk but not the hit, and that allows him to escape numerous jams because it's pretty damn tough to drive in a run or two with a walk.

Batters are hitting .214/.327/.325 off of him this year. Fluke? Lucky? I have no idea; that HR rate is very, very low. But IMHO that's why he's 17-2 with a low ERA despite bad periphs this year. I don't know what that would portend for next season, though.

It's hard to watch as a fan, certainly, and you'd never advise a young pitcher to adapt this approach. But it is what it is.

I don't know what that would portend for next season, though.

If I had to guess now, I'd say a few less walks, a few more HR, and an ERA around 4. But frankly, neither a 3 or a 5 ERA would really surprise me.

A few weeks ago I would have said if the Sox win division, then TB would probably be out, but CHI and MIN have performed worse than I expected.

The White Sox have injury problems and seem to have a lot of slump-prone hitters. The Twins simply aren't as good as they looked for a while and have played a lot more road games lately.