Red Sox would probably have to go something like 7-1 or 8-0 in their last 8 to have a chance at an outright division, because with the teams they're playing, I just don't see how TB does any worse than 5-4 in their last 9. Of course, they could look to get folks healthy, etc. and punt the last 8 should they clinch tomorrow, but my guess is they want the division title (perhaps even more than the Red Sox do).

All the more reason I remain pissed as hell Francona went to Timlin in that ballgame last week. The cookie to Pena was only correctly predicted by every single Therapudian on the Chatter that night.

TBE,

Are you referring to the game where he went to Timlin in the 14th? The only other choices were Hansack and Smith, neither of which were likely to be much better.

I had no idea Mike Timlin was still pitching.

Long live the 1992 Jays!

Darren,

Yes, and I would have used Hansack or Smith; preferably Hansack because at the time he was more stretched out and could give you multiple innings.

Would Hansack have done exactly what Timlin did? Sure, he could have. But I look at it this way: I KNOW that Timlin was good for (A) only 1 inning of decent work, and (B) was just as likely to give up a run as not.

Given that knowledge, I would have gone to Hansack. I might have even gone to Smith.

Timlin's as done as done can be. That he got insanely luck in Game 4 of the WS last year to get out of a jam doesn't mean anything this year, and this year he is about the 14th man on an 11-man roster I'd use. If he's on the playoff roster, a small part of me will die inside, because I know he will cost us a game in the postseason.

<bookmarking this page so I can refer to it in a playoff chatter if Timlin costs us a game>

If Gagne can make a playoff roster, so can Timlin.

Timlin's got experience in the crucible of the pressure cooker known as October baseball. [/Joe Buck]

I don't want him on the roster either. I just think he was a reasonable choice in that spot. In fact, I take the fact that Francona waited until the 14th to use as a very good sign.

I had no idea Mike Timlin was still pitching.

I'm not sure exactly what to call what Mike Timlin does, but pitching is not an adequate description.

Only god knows why he didn't #### off and retire after last season.

The postseason roster is a really interesting question right now, I think. (hint hint, Darren...) Every team has two off-days, and one will have three. Everyone will work a three-man rotation, and so there's no need for more than 10 pitchers, and you could even go with 9 if you felt like it.

Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka
Papelbon, Delcarmen, Okajima, Masterson, Lopez, one or two of Byrd/Wakefield/Hansack/Timlin/Aardsma/Smith

I don't like any of those short relief options. I kinda like the idea of Wakefield as the 6th reliever, capable of working long or short if necessary, and carrying 16 position players and pinch-hitting for catchers almost like Dike Williams in '74. That's not going to happen, though. So I don't really know what they should do. I'm badly underwhelmed by the options after Lopez, and honestly, Timlin wouldn't be particularly worse than any of the rest.

I guess, realistically, I like carrying one of Byrd or Hansack as a long man and Wake as a short reliever.

Timlin didn't retire last year because his ERA+ was 139. The death of Mike Timlin has been foretold again and again (I foretold it before 2003, based on DIPS!), and while he's struggled this year, it's the first time he's been a below average reliever since 1994.

I don't think he's necessarily dead. He's still hitting 90-92, and he's still getting reasonable drop on the sinker. Carlos Pena can hit anyone. Based on observation, I like him better than Smith or Aardsma - if they have to take one, I'd take Timlin.

Timlin didn't retire last year because his ERA+ was 139.

Wow, Mike Timlin is way more statistically sophisticated than I realized.

(That's a good point, though, about his pitching last year.)

Looking over that list of relievers, I wonder why Hunter Jones didn't get a chance. I know they don't need another lefty, but they do need another arm, and he was very good this year. You wonder about both Buchholz and Bowden, though IIRC both have struggled in relief, and obviously there are other factors with both of them that trump possible upgrades at the #6 reliever slot.

My guess is the Sox go with Timlin and Wakefield (maybe Byrd). There aren't really any good choices, but that also means there aren't any bad choices.

I guess, realistically, I like carrying one of Byrd or Hansack as a long man and Wake as a short reliever.

The last pitcher(s) after the top 8 are going to be Byrd, Wakefield, and Timlin. I can't see any other pitchers possibly making the postseason roster at this stage, unless they go batshit crazy and carry 12 pitchers. The question is which and how many of those three?

Edit: barring injury, of course.

MC,

I was about to post a postseason roster thread this morning and the damn water heater broke. Cut me some slack!!! :)

The last pitcher(s) after the top 8 are going to be Byrd, Wakefield, and Timlin. I can't see any other pitchers possibly making the postseason roster at this stage, unless they go batshit crazy and carry 12 pitchers.

Eleven pitchers would be batshit crazy, given the Division Series schedules this year. (Though, of course, the leverage of these decisions in marginal wins is, you know, marginal. It's fun anyway.)

And I guess I'll cut you some slack, Darren, but this is why I rent - I don't have a mortgage, and I don't have to fix anything. Renting is awesome. I plan never to buy.

Eleven pitchers would be batshit crazy, given the Division Series schedules this year. (Though, of course, the leverage of these decisions in marginal wins is, you know, marginal. It's fun anyway.)

Agree on all counts.

Darren, are you on Facebook, or is that another Darren?

And I guess I'll cut you some slack, Darren, but this is why I rent - I don't have a mortgage, and I don't have to fix anything. Renting is awesome. I plan never to buy.

I don't have to fix much, my "rent" is relatively flat over a 30-year period, and something like 70% of it is still mine, effectively invested at 5.5%. Buying is awesome.

Both have their perks. But one thing is clear - whether you rent or buy, not having hot water stinks.

In terms of Timlin, he wasn't done at the end of last year. He was hurt at the start of this year, and wasn't too hot in his first few outings this year. After that (selective endpoints!) he had a 3.66 ERA through the end of August. A 3.66 ERA from mid-April through August is not "done", although admittedly he's been (IMO) mostly used in low-leverage situations in that time. Since then, though, he's been pretty bad; I don't recall if his nonuse in the ensuing week was due to injury, illness, or something else, but he's been bad since then.

I don't know if Timlin is done, but he wasn't done in 2007, and for much of 2008 he wasn't done. The big issue with Timlin these days is that he's an injury risk, and he doesn't seem to bounce back from injury very well. If he's hurt now, he's gotta be done for 2008. I don't know if that means he's done for good, but I doubt he'll be brought back by Boston.

D'oh!

I got the schedule wrong. Here's the 2008 playoff schedule. The Red Sox will most likely be the Wild Card team, and thus they will probably need a 4th starter in the ALDS. We're back to 10/11 pitchers, with quite possibly both Wake and Byrd on the roster.

Darren, are you on Facebook, or is that another Darren?

Facebook? What am I, 14?

Darren, but this is why I rent - I don't have a mortgage, and I don't have to fix anything. Renting is awesome. I plan never to buy.

You're a big help.

Indeed. Good luck renoobulating the grommet bearings on your water warming unit.

Is the Rays clinching of a playoff spot only a Yankee loss away? Since Min and Chi play each other, I don't think Tampa can lose the wild card to them even if they go 0-for-rest-of-season.

kinda like the idea of Wakefield as the 6th reliever, capable of working long or short if necessary, and carrying 16 position players and pinch-hitting for catchers almost like Dike Williams in '74. That's not going to happen, though. So I don't really know what they should do.

If they plan to have Wakefield on the playoff roster, then Tito ought to let Varitek catch his last two starts this year. Tek needs at least some work with the knuckler before they get thrust together in some late-inning situation in the playoffs again.

Facebook? What am I, 14?

Well, I assumed you were young, what with all your pants pissing. :-)

Besides, there are certainly older people than you on there.