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Friday, June 12, 2009

Amazin’ Avenue: Jerry Manuel Has No Clue

I suggest it was Mr. Manuel, in the Dugout, with the Lineup and #### for Brains.

We spent some time this offseason discussing optimal lineup construction, ultimately realizing that the difference between the best and worst lineups is only a few runs per season. I don’t expect a major league manager like Jerry Manuel to construct a lineup based on “The Book”, but the fact that David Wright continues to bat 5th is completely outrageous. This is a player who has been the Mets’ best or second best hitter since 2004 (his rookie season). He’s currently leading the National League in batting average and on-base percentage. Why would any sane individual not try to maximize the plate appearances for this beast of a hitter?

Let me reiterate: Wright leads the league in on-base percentage and is batting in a lineup spot that will end up with ~50 fewer plate appearances than the 2 spot over the course of a season. I don’t want to hear nonsense about how Wright has better numbers in the 5 spot, or how he changes his approach when batting in other places in the order. Bat him 3rd, 2nd, or heck even 1st. Just not 5th. Between lineup construction, bullpen management, and the non-stop bunting, Manuel is costing this team runs and therefore wins. For a group that has missed the playoffs by a game or 2 each of the last 2 seasons, this is a large issue. Unfortunately, there is only a slim chance it will rectified.

Repoz Posted: June 12, 2009 at 12:30 AM | 29 comment(s)
Related News: General, Sabermetrics, NY Mets

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1. Eric P. Posted: June 11, 2009 at 11:55 PM (#3215735)

This has probably been brought up in other Mets threads but where has Wright's power gone? He's hitting just as many fly balls, liners and ground balls as his career norm. The ball just isn't going over the wall, only a 6.8% HR/FB compared to 14.6% for his career. He's also striking out more despite the high batting average (his ridiculous BABIP helps, certainly). Has he just been as unlucky with his power as he has been lucky with his average or is this something to be worried about going forward?

Obviously he's still having a heck of a year but it's a very puzzling one.

2. 1k5v3L, Useless

Posted: June 12, 2009 at 12:11 AM (#3215755)

He can't really blame Citi Field either--of his 4 home runs, 3 have been at home and only 1 on the road.
God bless his legs, as my fantasy team welcomes the stolen bases... but I'd appreciate a bit more power.

3. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: June 12, 2009 at 12:11 AM (#3215756)

So Jerry Manuel has no clue because he hasn't spent time discussing optimal lineup construction or taking its concepts to heart? Despite the fact that "the difference between the best and worst lineups is only a few runs per season"?

Optimal lineup construction? Call it what it is: a stathead circle jerk.

4. Dinner With Frenchy Posted: June 12, 2009 at 12:16 AM (#3215765)

Here are a list of things that are pissing me off about the Mets:

1. The incessant bunting needs to stop. You do not bunt to leave the game in the hands of OMIR SANTOS WHO WILL BE THE DEATH OF ME.

2. Ken Takahashi cannot get lefties out (1.140 OPS). He is not a LOOGY. I know your gut tells you he can get lefties out, Jerry, but my gut says #### your gut.

3. Can Brian Stokes get in a game once in a while? Just one time? Please. You are going to burn Parnell out by July.

5. PreservedFish Posted: June 12, 2009 at 12:17 AM (#3215766)

I thought that it was a tenet of statheadism that lineups are nearly irrelevant.

6. Chris Dial Posted: June 12, 2009 at 12:36 AM (#3215791)

I thought that it was a tenet of statheadism that lineups are nearly irrelevant.

The problem with t as I see it is that sims, which serve to demonstrate these things don't optimally select teh right relievers to take advantage of a poor lineup construction.

How many runs is 50 more ABs for Wright and how many runs less does it cost the Mets to have a below average hitter, that may be hitting second, to get 70 fewer PAs. Wright creates 130 runs a year. Moving someone that hits like Cora down to 7th and Wright to 2nd wil create a handful of runs, about 10. At least 10. It may not seem like much, but that is a win. And we're throwing that away.

7. Russlan wants Pedro to be a Met again Posted: June 12, 2009 at 03:43 AM (#3215843)

I wonder what the record for BABIP in a season. Wright's almost at .500 on the season. It's amazing.

8. Roadblock Jones Posted: June 12, 2009 at 08:10 AM (#3215928)

Wright's gone long stretches without hitting a lot of home runs before. He had 20 at the ASB in 2006 and finished with 26.

Jerry is killing the team with bunts.

9. Chris Dial Posted: June 12, 2009 at 08:19 AM (#3215936)

Jerry is killing the team with bunts.

I don't know that I agree with that.

10. Roadblock Jones Posted: June 12, 2009 at 08:39 AM (#3215965)

Jerry is killing the team with bunts.

I don't know that I agree with that.

Really? It's way too passive a strategy for my tastes, and even last night when it "works" it tends to limit whatever ability they have to score multiple runs in an inning and leaves them, as usual, with little or no margin for error late in games.

11. PASTE is not impressed by Albert Pujols (Zeth) Posted: June 12, 2009 at 08:55 AM (#3215981)

90% of the time sac bunts are little more than the manager's way of drawing attention to himself.

12. twon8 Posted: June 12, 2009 at 09:19 AM (#3216022)

I don't know that I agree with that.

giving away outs in the first inning with Redding on the mound is asinine.

13. 1k5v3L, Useless

Posted: June 12, 2009 at 09:39 AM (#3216051)

Jerry is killing the team with bunts.

That's gold, Jerry. Gold.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0qm0KUPeD8

14. Joe C and the Pop Culture Portmanteau Posted: June 12, 2009 at 09:41 AM (#3216055)

So Maine to the DL - what's the status of Perez? And what's the Mets' rotation right now?

Santana
Pelfrey
Livan
Redding
?

Niese? D'Amico? Ojeda? Who starts Saturday?

15. JPWF13

Posted: June 12, 2009 at 09:41 AM (#3216057)

He's hitting just as many fly balls, liners and ground balls as his career norm.

I find that hard to believe, from what I've seen (and I haven't seen every game) he's clearly traded flyballs for line drives- was that a conscious decision or just some random fluke? I have no idea, he's not just not hitting HRs, he's not hitting many deep flyballs at all.

Obviously you can live with a line of .362/.458/.526, but if that turns into .312/.408/.476 Met fans will be less happy...

and yes, the Mets are bunting a bit too much
non-pitcher Sac bunts (per ESPN- I don't think they have last nite's stats)

Cincinnati    24
NY Mets    18
St. Louis    16
Houston    13
Atlanta    11
Colorado    11
Pittsburgh    11
Arizona    10
Chicago Cubs    9
San Diego    9
San Francisco    8
Florida    7
Washington    7
Philadelphia    6
Milwaukee    5
LA Dodgers    2

The Reds are bunting way way way too much.

16. Joe C and the Pop Culture Portmanteau Posted: June 12, 2009 at 09:54 AM (#3216078)

Obviously he's still having a heck of a year but it's a very puzzling one.

Agreed, but if Wright's numbers aren't within shouting distance of, oh, .320/.410/.530 or so at the end of the year, I'll be shocked.

17. PreservedFish Posted: June 12, 2009 at 10:01 AM (#3216094)

Seems to me that most of Manuel's bunts have come in fairly normal circumstances.

And, for the last month the Mets have only had offense at the 3-4-5 slots. Everyone else is trash. With the other 6 hitters any inning that produces a single run seems like a miracle.

18. Roadblock Jones Posted: June 12, 2009 at 10:06 AM (#3216105)

and yes, the Mets are bunting a bit too much
non-pitcher Sac bunts (per ESPN- I don't think they have last nite's stats)

Cincinnati 24
NY Mets 18
St. Louis 16
Houston 13
Atlanta 11
Colorado 11
Pittsburgh 11
Arizona 10
Chicago Cubs 9
San Diego 9
San Francisco 8
Florida 7
Washington 7
Philadelphia 6
Milwaukee 5
LA Dodgers 2

I would guess if those figures included the times that Jerry's called for a bunt and the player failed to execute it properly, we'd be kicking Cincinnati's ass.

19. Bob Koo Posted: June 12, 2009 at 10:31 AM (#3216138)

3. Can Brian Stokes get in a game once in a while? Just one time? Please. You are going to burn Parnell out by July.

C'mon now. Parnell is now the anointed 8th inning guy, so he must pitch every 8th inning in which the game is close. That's why he couldn't pitch the 7th on Wednesday in an important spot. Sure, this usage is completely inflexible and will lead to burnout, just like it did with Putz, but hey, this is Jerry's way. He's gangsta.

20. Dag Nabbit: formerly tolerant of lactose Posted: June 12, 2009 at 10:39 AM (#3216146)

giving away outs in the first inning with Redding on the mound is asinine.

The Mets have 3 first inning SH on the year so far. One came with Redding on the mound. It was on June 11, which the Mets won, largely thanks to Redding allowing 3 runs in 7 innings off of 6 hits, no walks and 6 strikeouts.

The Mets actually scored a run that inning, a run that the bunt helped set up. Castillo had a leadoff double, then Cora bunted him to third. Castillo scored on a groundout to third. Another infield groundout ended the inning. If Cora swung away and made an out without advancing the runner (always a very real possibilty), the Mets don't get that run.

21. twon8 Posted: June 12, 2009 at 10:47 AM (#3216161)

or if cora doesn't make an out maybe David gets to bat that inning we score 3 runs

22. Dag Nabbit: formerly tolerant of lactose Posted: June 12, 2009 at 10:54 AM (#3216171)

For some reason, when writing that post, I didn't realize June 11 was yesterday. Wow that was stupid.

or if cora doesn't make an out maybe David gets to bat that inning we score 3 runs

Odds on that are always bad. Most players have OBPs well below .500.

23. Roadblock Jones Posted: June 12, 2009 at 10:55 AM (#3216175)

nevermind.

24. HowardMegdal

Posted: June 12, 2009 at 10:56 AM (#3216181)

C'mon now. Parnell is now the anointed 8th inning guy, so he must pitch every 8th inning in which the game is close. That's why he couldn't pitch the 7th on Wednesday in an important spot. Sure, this usage is completely inflexible and will lead to burnout, just like it did with Putz, but hey, this is Jerry's way. He's gangsta.

This seems like an odd criticism, considering that since the start of the month, Parnell's pitched in the sixth, eighth, ninth, tenth and eleventh.

25. Joe C and the Pop Culture Portmanteau Posted: June 12, 2009 at 11:23 AM (#3216219)

I hope Theo has Omar on the phone today...

"Omar! Good to talk to you. Say, I hear Maine went on the DL - that's too bad. Hey, did you see Penny pitch against the Yankees last night? Yeah, six shutout innings! Really a great performance - you know, I'd be happy to send you along a tape of the game if you'd like to see it again..."

26. Raskolnikov Posted: June 12, 2009 at 11:39 AM (#3216243)

One came with Redding on the mound. It was on June 11, which the Mets won, largely thanks to Redding allowing 3 runs in 7 innings off of 6 hits, no walks and 6 strikeouts.

This is great. How did you come upon this, Dag Nabbit?

I want to try it too. One such night came with Scarlett Johansson. It was on June 11, a night of passion and lust.

;-)

- On Penny, hey I want him on the Mets. What are you looking for, Joe C?

27. Joe C and the Pop Culture Portmanteau Posted: June 12, 2009 at 11:43 AM (#3216249)

On Penny, hey I want him on the Mets. What are you looking for, Joe C?

A B-level prospect? A couple of live arms? Penny has eight quality starts in twelve - he's pitched better than his ERA, especially since April - but he's not exactly going to bring back a top prospect or immediate impact player, to say the least.

Maybe a couple more good starts would help.

28. Alan S Posted: June 12, 2009 at 12:13 PM (#3216310)

Nothing to add, except that I want Bobby V. back.

29. HowardMegdal

Posted: June 12, 2009 at 12:24 PM (#3216318)

Brad Penny, freed of having to face the Mets, would be a tremendous asset. His career ERA, minus the Mets, drops from 4.11 to 3.92.

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