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Monday, October 19, 2009
Amazin’ Avenue: Kannengieser: Non-Tender Candidate: Jeff Francoeur
à côté de ses pompes and circumstances…
Naturally, Francoeur proceeded to perform well for the Mets, posting a decent .311/.338/.498 line. Combine production with an infectious personality and we’re looking at a new fan favorite. Of course, his plate discipline remained terrible. He swung at a greater percentage of pitches out of the strike zone than any other Met and had the worst unintentional walk rate of his career. Sustaining a high batting average with such awful peripherals is a tough task. However, Francoeur has posted a BABIP in the .340 range in 2 other seasons (2005 and 2007), so who am I to say his .343 Mets BABIP is unsustainable?
His Fangraphs WAR with the Mets was just 0.4, but that seems a little low because of a seemingly fluky -8.6 UZR in just half a season. Another defensive measure, Plus/Minus, pegged his full season defense at +8. Considering these 2 measures have agreed on Francoeur’s defense in the past, and the questions about UZR reliability for outfielders at Citi Field, a WAR of about 1.0 seems more likely. Extend to a full season and it’s ~2.0 WAR, roughly league average. This kind of production would be acceptable given his expected salary, but counting on that kind of performance from such an unpredictable player would be silly.
...Verdict: Bring him back next season but do not even think about an extension. Small sample size infatuation is a problem with the Mets’ front office (see Daniel Murphy, Omir Santos), and if you have the opportunity to go year-to-year on a question mark like Francoeur, you take it. If arbitration* is necessary, hopefully the arbiter isn’t as enamored with Frenchy’s intangibles and fashion sense as most of the Mets fanbase is. A salary of $4-5 million seems likely. This is a player we can’t easily project (although we can try), and there is a real risk he reverts to his disastrous 2006, 2008 or first half of 2009 form. Additionally, do not pencil him in as the definitive right field starter. Angel Pagan had an outstanding 2009 and has also earned the right to be considered for significant playing time, either as a starter or in some sort of platoon role.
Repoz
Posted: October 19, 2009 at 08:16 AM | 20 comment(s)
Related News: General, Sabermetrics, Projections, NY Mets
Related News: General, Sabermetrics, Projections, NY Mets
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Perhaps it should have been more specific. Factoring throwing arm and home runs robbed, and converting to runs saved, Plus/Minus has Francoeur at +8. This is the most appropriate way to compare to UZR.
Pagan should get one corner OF spot, and they should bring in a real hitter for the other.
Pagan should get one corner OF spot, and they should bring in a real hitter for the other.
I'm confused what you mean here. If the Mets can't afford to pay Francoeur, monetarily (as opposed to metaphorically), then how can they afford as an alternative an actual real hitter, who would cost more?
I'm saying if your total budget is limited, you can't waste $5-6M of it on a complete crapshoot like Francoeur.
You'd better use that $5-6M (plus $2-3M more probably) to get a more dependable hitter. Bobby Abreu, or Nick Johnson (for 1B) maybe?
I agree, I think he sucks (see [6]). The most favorable interpretation for Francoeur is 'crapshoot'. Even if you take that view (say 50:50 2WAR player: 0WAR player), the Mets can't blow 25-35% of their available off-season money on that.
More importantly, I think there's still some home run potential from Francoeur. In 2006, he averaged 1 homer for every 22 AB. Even with the Mets last season, he only hit 1 homer for every 29 AB. He can be productive with a little lower BABIP if he hits a few more homers. And he'e at the age where more power should be expected.
I agree that it'd be stupid to give him a multi-year deal. I don't mind rolling the dice on him on a one year deal.
I'm surprised Madoff even gets brought up in regard to the Wilpon's situation. They're not widowers clipping coupons. They have a huge, multi-decade revenue stream all but guaranteed. If they have to borrow to bring in Lackey and Bay, why should we let them off the hook? We built the goddamned stadium for them...
I'll bet Francoeur gets 3/13. He'll be the only "significant" position player the Mets ink this offseason.
It's very unclear to me to what extent the Mets will open the purse strings for next AND how it is most appropriate for them to spend what ever dollars they have. I see holes every where. Question marks everywhere and little on the farm to help.
I believe I would try and bring in one free agent outfielder, probably not a top end multi-year guy. Firstbase is also complicated. I'm more optimistic about Murphy than I was at the start of the year. I feel like he learned as the season progressed, and my initial read was that he was too passive at the plate, I'm less convinced of that though I think it may always be a battle of adjustments for Murphy. I wouldn't mind giving him a platoon job to open the season but with catcher and the questionable offense at 2b and the non-fa corner outfielder I don't know if that luxury exists.
The starting rotation is a disaster. I don't even know where to start. They need to somehow straighten out Big Pelf and Ollie and get reasonable work from them. They need Maine to be healthy and they need to get a number 2. I don't think any of those first things is likely to happen.
I'm bearish on there playoff chances. Very bearish.
I hate that I do agree. The Phils won 93 games despite horrible years from Lidge and Rollins and a mediocre one from Hamels. They'll have Lee for the entire season next year. The Braves have a really strong rotation.
I don't think the Mets can compete with those teams, and the Marlins aren't chopped liver either.
Abreu will get a multi-year deal for at least $10 million a year, probably much more. He had a great year this year, and also rehabilitated his image as a teammate with all the stories coming out about how he made the rest of the Angels more patient. I suspect he'll be in the top 10 in the MVP voting. He probably deserves to be in the top 20.
I've said it before; I think this is pretty close - very close - to being a fait accompli. I've heard people bandy 2011 about as the next time the Mets can realistically contend, but I really don't see it, especially if that thought is based on the progression of current Mets prospects. A lot would have to go right for the Mets and their young players in 2010 to even think about contending in 2011. And by 2012, Wright/Reyes/Santana/Beltran are either close to the end of their contracts or out of their contracts, and all are probably exiting their primes. It's a weird, mostly depressing spot to be in.
Anaheim is rumored to have offered 2 years at $8M per as an extension. The Mets should top that. 2/18 or 2/20 works. Abreu's offensive skill set should play well in Citifield. Same for Nick Johnson, I'd seriously look at him for 1B. Murphy can spell him regularly to keep NJ healthy.
If you could get those two for $18M per combined, give Pagan LF, non-tender Francoeur, and bring in a couple of high risk SP (Harden or Sheets, plus another (cheap) reclamation project, I think the Mets would have a shot. Not a great one, they'd still be underdogs to Phi and Atl. But if the big 4 come back strong, they could be real contenders. They'd also be around the same budget.
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