Freaking Dbacks, scooping up all the interesting young players. Can't you guys just be happy with what you have?

Wow, what an awful deal for Florida. Maybe we can sell them Joey Gathright for Ricky Nolasco.

The Marlins gave up on Petit fast.
That Delgado trade doesn't look too bad for the Mets now.

Julio, meh

Speaking of the Mets, Ed Coleman just reported on WFAN that Duaner Sanchez is out about four months with further shoulder complications. I'm sure once it hits the mainstream media there will be a link...

How good will Petit do in Chase stadium?

Did I miss something on Petit? He was pretty unremarkable for Albuquerque last year (and of course terrible with Florida), but he's only 22 now. Why is his stock so down?

Why is his stock so down?

while his minor league #'s were great, he never had great stuff. that's what the scouts said all along. mets fans didn't care, though.

Wasn't Petit always sorta fringe-y?

Dayton Moore HAS to at least try and offer Gathright to FLA now.

Since 2005 he has given up 41 homers in 255 IP, (minors/majors combined) And of course since he left A Ball, his K/9 has been cut in half. So yeah, I would agree that the scouts were right, his stuff was not as good as his low minors stats. Whatever.......I guess you can't expect to get too much for Jorge Julio.

I hope the D Backs did not send too much money to the Marlins in this deal.

Is Julio going to close for Florida? Fantasy owners want to know.

"This move to acquire Jorge Julio helps solidify the back end of our bullpen as he assumes the role of closer," said Marlins Manager Fredi Gonzalez. "

from marlins website story

"This move to acquire Jorge Julio helps solidify the back end of our bullpen as he assumes the role of closer," said Marlins Manager Fredi Gonzalez. "

from marlins website story

I think Petit could still be a decent starter in the right ballpark because he's got very good secondary stuff but Chase Field is about the worse possible park for him.

Gotta say, Minaya's trades with the Marlins have went about as well as one could have hoped.

I like this trade well enough. I don't think Julio was ever going to help the D-backs much because of Chase, so I'm glad they sold him when they did. I'm curious what Byrnes likes about Petit, though.

I think this is a steal for Arizona, by the way. Not that I think Petit will succeed in that park, but he's not far removed from first tier (or high second tier, at least) prospect status. And Jorge Julio is, you know, Jorge Julio.

Julio did strike out 88 batters last season in 66 innings last season. That's a pretty phenomenal strike out rate and he is moving to one of the worst ballparks for lefthanded power hitters. He could surprise this season.

Mets ripped Marlins off in the Carlos Delgado deal. If you call ripping a team off "doing well."

According to the EV Tribune http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/86613

The Marlins are expected to pay all $3.6 million of Julio's 2007 contract.

So, the Dbacks traded El Duque for Petit. Sounds like a trade I would've suggested on a Mets thread here shortly after the Dbacks got El Duque from the ChaSox.

Hmm... all the other reports from other sources have "cash considerations" going to Florida.

Sun-Sentinel blog:

Julio, who has 99 career saves, will arrive today and be in uniform Wednesday. Because the deal required approval from the Commissioner's Office, the Diamondbacks are picking up at least $1 million of Julio's $3.6 million 2007 salary.

Hm, Julio has some skill but I dont think hes reliable enough to close and I question the utility of giving up a young starter for a closer for the Marlins..although they do have plenty of young starters.

I wonder though, if (A) Julio has a good 3-4 months as a closer if (B) he could be flipped for a better (or at least more useful to the Marlins) prospect than Petit. I wonder what the odds of both A and B happening are.

I wonder though, if (A) Julio has a good 3-4 months as a closer if (B) he could be flipped for a better (or at least more useful to the Marlins) prospect than Petit. I wonder what the odds of both A and B happening are.

A: 50%
B: 25%

AxB: 16%

I'm no math major, but .5 * .25 = .125 in my book.

"Did I miss something on Petit? He was pretty unremarkable for Albuquerque last year (and of course terrible with Florida), but he's only 22 now. Why is his stock so down?"

Petit went to Venezuela after the 2005 season (in which he threw 131 innings) and got abused by his Venezuelan team, throwing another 49 innings. His stuff has not been the same since. He used to pitch with an average FB (89-91) with good deception (see Mets 2005 Top 10), but now he pitches at 85-87.

Plus, he was pretty clearly passed by a number of other young starters in the Marlins organization. They probably just wanted to get something for him before the cat was totally out of the bag.

I'd be loath to criticize Florida on this one. They're a lot closer tot he situation than we are and after what they accomplished last year with their talent evaluation, I think Larry Beinfest knows what he is doing.

I guess I'm just not a big fan of Petit. I think Julio is actually a decent fit in the short term for the closers role in Miami. No use rushing Owens or Lindstrom. Let Tankersley work in the 7th and 8th inning for a season or half a season. Good ballpark for Julio. Could build up some value. Especially if limited to one inning with no inherited runners. Not a lot of pressure on what is at best mediocre team.

pick up julio NOW if he's still available in your fantasy league...his ERA has been pushed up by HR problems the last few years (he gives up plenty of flyballs) but in florida he should be fairly safe with that excellent K rate. He's a decent bet to hold the job all year, or at least put in a few solid months as your 3rd closer. Furthermore, there's noone really poised to take the job if he stumbles out of the gate...i doubt he'd lose the job before mid-may. Though he's only 28 there's a bit of injury worry; he's a pretty fat guy who throws hard. Nevertheless, go get him.

Petit went to Venezuela after the 2005 season (in which he threw 131 innings) and got abused by his Venezuelan team, throwing another 49 innings. His stuff has not been the same since. He used to pitch with an average FB (89-91) with good deception (see Mets 2005 Top 10), but now he pitches at 85-87.

Plus, he was pretty clearly passed by a number of other young starters in the Marlins organization. They probably just wanted to get something for him before the cat was totally out of the bag.

Well..that account sure jives with his 2006 numbers, and seems like a plausible explanation for his dropoff.

sorry guys...it isn't me. I am only clicking submit once, and the BTF page keeps timing out, and then 3 minutes later there is a double post appearing. No pages for any other sites are timing out on me.

Sure, sure... you know how many "Cleanup on Aisle 5"s I've had to do on your posts today?

I don't know the exact number either, but I know the number is greater than one! :)

(And posting has been goofy for the last few days; thank God for multiple tabs...)

I'd be loath to criticize Florida on this one. They're a lot closer tot he situation than we are and after what they accomplished last year with their talent evaluation, I think Larry Beinfest knows what he is doing.

This is somewhat of a rare occurrence, but I completely agree with kevin. I think Beinfest has earned the benefit of the doubt at this point. Consider:

A. The Marlins had no clear front-runner to be the closer. No one on the roster had experience in that role, and their consensus most qualified reliever from a talent perspective is both injured and the only reliable lefty. There was a high potential for a revolving door situation.

B. In each of the past 2 seasons, the Marlins have been extremely successful using retreads with closer experience and low expectations. Todd Jones and Joe Borowski weren't considered valuable closers when they came to the Marlins, but they were when they left.

C. There's almost no chance that Jorge Julio won't be considered a Type A Free Agent after this season. With the Elias formula, he was classified as a Type A guy this past offseason, in spite of the 2-year rankings including his 70 ERA+, zero save season in Baltimore.

D. If the Marlins disappoint and fall out of the race, some contender will offer a decent amount for Julio to become their setup man or closer provided that his numbers remotely resemble his 2006 line.

E. The Marlins aren't short on starting pitching at the Major League level, and per Sickels, 18 of their top 20 prospects are pitchers. Petit did not seem to be a vitally important prospect to them, even if he were able to prove that 2006 was an anomaly. If he had another year like last year, his value would likely fall precipitously.

Overall, I think that's enough reason to wait and see how this plays out rather than condemning the Marlins for the move.

I'm no math major, but .5 * .25 = .125 in my book.

Intangibles.

I'd be loath to criticize Florida on this one. They're a lot closer tot he situation than we are and after what they accomplished last year with their talent evaluation, I think Larry Beinfest knows what he is doing.

Red Sox fans learned their lesson :)

Petit went to Venezuela after the 2005 season (in which he threw 131 innings) and got abused by his Venezuelan team, throwing another 49 innings. His stuff has not been the same since. He used to pitch with an average FB (89-91) with good deception (see Mets 2005 Top 10), but now he pitches at 85-87.

I sure hope the Dbacks scouts checked on his velocity with them when they were scouting Petit this spring.

I believe both teams did well here. The Marlins got a guy they can use as a closer and hope to get a couple of picks for next summer. The Dbacks got rid of a reliever who didn't want to be setting up in AZ, pitched list #### this spring and was getting paid far too much to be the 7th inning guy, in return for a guy they'll control for 6+ years, is close to the majors, and can either compete for a rotation spot next spring or be traded for a bigger need down the road. At this point, the Dbacks really didn't have to fill a need by trading Julio, and were looking for the guy with the highest upside, lowest cost and longest control. I'm assuming that of all the guys that were offered for Julio, Petit fit the bill the best.

I'm curious what Byrnes likes about Petit, though.

Maybe Byrnes thinks that Petit can learn to throw a sinker?

I'm curious what Byrnes likes about Petit, though.

Josh Byrnes on the trade/Petit

"We just felt like Julio really didn't have a defined role and to be able to turn him into a young pitcher who's still 22 and has Major League experience was a better move for us," D-backs general manager Josh Byrnes said. "We like Petit. We have for some time, and we're excited to get him. Not an overpowering guy, but a guy with four pitches, very good command, very good changeup and was sort of pushed along at a young age through the Minors and pitched well."

Good mve for FLA, they seem to be able to turn any middle of the road vet into a top closer (Looper, Urbina, Benitez, Jones, Borowski).

Unless the Marlins tank it, he'll get 30 saves and depart elsewhere next offseason.

After five weeks of mulling over in-house candidates, the Marlins went outside the organization for their closer Monday, acquiring right-hander Jorge Julio and $1 million from the Arizona Diamondbacks for right-hander Yusmeiro Petit.
...
Dolphin Stadium should help lower [the HR] figure and Julio does miss bats. Last season he struck out 88, raising his lifetime mark to 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings.

"We like the stuff and we like the ability, and in the right situation we really think he can flourish," Beinfest said. "We've had some luck calling this sort of situation.

"In Jorge's case he hasn't been a full-time closer in a couple of years now. Maybe it's time to get into a really good situation and become the full-time closer again."

Covering $2.6 million of Julio's salary, the acquisition pushes the Marlins' Opening Day payroll to just over $32 million.

Sun-Sentinel

The Marlins also explored the possibility of working out a deal with the San Francisco Giants for Benitez, but his $7.6 million salary and diminishing skills served to diffuse interest.

Julio comes cheaper. He will make $3.6 million this season, of which the Diamonbacks have agreed to pay about $1.5 million, after which he will become eligible for free agency and likely command a heftier price tag than the thrifty Marlins will be willing to swallow. His addition will bring the on-field payroll this season to about $28 million.

Miami Herald

The D-Backs dealt Julio and cash to the Marlins for prospect Yusmeiro Petit, 22, a player long admired by general manager Josh Byrnes, in a move that saves the D-Backs about $2 million.

East Valley Tribune

Considering that and their assortment of right-handed relievers already in place, the Diamondbacks sent Julio and an undisclosed amount of cash to the Florida Marlins on Monday in exchange for 22-year-old right-hander Yusmeiro Petit.
...
Byrnes wouldn't say specifically how much of Julio's salary the Diamondbacks will be paying, but he did say that the deal did not require the approval of the commissioner's office, which would suggest that less than $1 million changed hands. Reports out of Florida said the opposite, that the trade had to be approved.

Arizona Republic

At first, I didn't see how this trade made sense from Florida's perspective (isn't it to their benefit to stockpile as many live arms as possible?), but it does show how far Petit's stock has fallen.

As far as the Mets are concerned, I suppose it's regrettable that they had to give up anything to get someone who was available as a FA the previous year (Delgado), but at least Minaya identified a weakness and did something about it (and at present, it seems as if he didn't have to give up much to get it). The one trade they may end up regretting is the LoDuca-Gaby Hernandez trade; LoDuca is throroughly unexecptional and acquiring a player of his caliber shouldn't require surrendering a prospect.

"The one trade they may end up regretting is the LoDuca-Gaby Hernandez trade; LoDuca is throroughly unexecptional and acquiring a player of his caliber shouldn't require surrendering a prospect."

Jesus, what more does the man need to do for Mets fans? He gave you a 105 OPS+ from the CATCHER spot last year. GAby Hernandez has potential but hes not a bad price to pay for that

yeah, i can't rag on loduca that much. he did everything we could have hoped last year.

So the DBacks are paying somewhere between $1 and $3.6 M of Julio's salary. Maybe we need a pool.

I got a chance to watch Petit's Sunday start on MLB.com. His velocity was around 82-85 for the fastball for his entire outing. The breaking ball looked to have pretty good bite, but he was not consistently getting it in for strikes.

I read a scouting report recently that said Petit's delivery is deceptive and hitters have a tough time picking up his release point until they've seen him a number of times. The scout went on to say that he didn't think Petit would be able to fool major league hitters for long.

The Fish have so many high quality RH starting pitching prospects (Jose Garcia and Gaby Hernandez at AA; Volstad and Sinkbeil at high A) that they won't miss Petit. I agree with those who have written that Beinfest and his staff in general make good personnel decisions. Also, I was interested to read about those innings thrown by Petit in Venezuela after the 2005 season.

Jesus, what more does the man need to do for Mets fans? He gave you a 105 OPS+ from the CATCHER spot last year. GAby Hernandez has potential but hes not a bad price to pay for that

...And Piazza (who is about 5 years into the decline phase of his career, no less) OPSed 120 (albeit in fewer ABs) and provided comparable defense for the Padres, for the price of $1.25 million (as opposed to about $6.6 million for LoDuca). Moreover, signing Piazza wouldn't have cost the team a prospect. I can only assume that Minaya panicked when negotiations with (the overrated) Bengie Molina broke off, then pulled the trigger on the LoDuca trade. But it didn't have to be that way.

A: 50%
B: 25%

AxB: 16%

23. kthejoker Posted: March 26, 2007 at 07:25 PM (#2318414)
I'm no math major, but .5 * .25 = .125 in my book.

That's because levski wrote it wrong. A and B are events, not probabilities.

P(A) = 50%
P(B) = 25%
P(A u B) = 16%

Only if A and B are independent (and they are obviously not), must P(A u B) = P(A)P(B).

So, the Dbacks traded El Duque for Petit. Sounds like a trade I would've suggested on a Mets thread here shortly after the Dbacks got El Duque from the ChaSox.

If the byproduct was that the Mets somehow still end up with Delgado, I'd do that trade in a heartbeat...

From the Mets side it looks like Benson, Petit & Jacobs for El Duque, Maine & Delgado. Not a bad haul for Omar, actually...

You never fail to crack me up, Levski.

Nick Piecoro at AZ Central Wrote in his blog the amount was exactly 1 million, which is why MLB did not need to approve, as it was not OVER 1 million. His info is the best of all the AZ writers, always the most accurate. (He also happens to be the smartest baseball writer out here and he "gets it" )

...And Piazza (who is about 5 years into the decline phase of his career, no less) OPSed 120 (albeit in fewer ABs) and provided comparable defense for the Padres, for the price of $1.25 million (as opposed to about $6.6 million for LoDuca). Moreover, signing Piazza wouldn't have cost the team a prospect.

Wasn't there an issue where the Mets could sign Piazza for less than some outrageous amount of money? I thought they needed to either offer arbitration and get a hefty salary or be barred from negotiation until after the season started.

That's $2.6 million for the team's "sign A-Rod and Big Z" fund.

It's all coming together.

And Piazza (who is about 5 years into the decline phase of his career, no less) OPSed 120 (albeit in fewer ABs) and provided comparable defense for the Padres

I'm not sure where the "provided comparable defense" part comes from. LoDuca isn't a great thrower but it's not a free for all when he's back there.