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Monday, September 15, 2008

Armchair GM Roundtable v. 3: “Milton Bradley: Sign him or let him walk?”

Popoffmatic Trouble?...WARNING: CHOKING HAZARD-Small part?...not seen here.

Jamey Newberg, author of the Newberg Report

I’d probably tell Milton he owes it to himself to survey the free agency landscape and we don’t want to stand in the way of that, but we do want him here. Have him shop the league and figure out what his value is on a multi-year deal, and then sit down to knock out a deal with him to stay. If someone out there wants to Gagné him and offer three or four guaranteed years, I probably wish him the best and take the supplemental first as compensation (he’s evidently projected to be a Type B free agent). But even though the disincentive to other clubs would be reduced by virtue of his Type B status - signing a Type B doesn’t cost you a draft pick (it only results in the award of a supplemental first to his previous team) - I’d be surprised if someone committed three years or more to him, given the injury risk.

“I think a two-year deal heavy on appearance incentives is a fair contract, but I want a club option for a third year (he’s only 30 years old, younger than Marlon Byrd). Maybe two years at a guaranteed $15 million, with $500,000 for reaching 502 plate appearances (the number necessary to qualify for the batting title - he’s at 470 right now in 2008), and another $500,000 for every 50 plate appearances he makes after that. As for the 2011 option year, when Bradley will be 33, maybe another $7.5 million (same incentives built in) with a buyout of something like $2 million.

“But all of this depends on how strongly I feel about Max Ramirez or Justin Smoak (or Chris Davis, to make room for Smoak) settling in as a designated hitter for this team by 2010. I’m not counting on Bradley to be an everyday defender again.”

Repoz Posted: September 15, 2008 at 08:22 AM | 20 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralBusinessTexas

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   1. Craig in MN Posted: September 15, 2008 at 10:39 AM (#2941920)
It's going to be a very interesting offseason for DH-types, and especially injury-concern DH-types. The list looks to me like Bradley, Griffey, Thomas, Thome, Giambi, and Ibanez. I feel like I should mention Baldelli too, but sadly he really won't get any attention. There will be a few teams looking for DHs, and there is some quality there, but the injury/age risks all around make it hard to believe that the market will go too crazy for any of them.

Of course if a couple of those guys get signed as position players elsewhere, that could thin things out somewhat. But it seems pretty likely that a team willing to be patient might find some good value in the DH market. I personally hope the Twins play that out and sign one of them to give them some hitting depth.
   2. The Politics of Torre: How the HOF Really Works Posted: September 15, 2008 at 10:43 AM (#2941929)
Baldelli isn't eligible for free agency yet, is he?
   3. Baseballing powerhouse Crispix Attacks Posted: September 15, 2008 at 10:48 AM (#2941932)
Yes he is. They declined his option.

That looks like a terrible contract he signed to, incidentally. Three team options, each for over twice as much money as any of the actual guaranteed years? That's an NFL contract.
   4. The Politics of Torre: How the HOF Really Works Posted: September 15, 2008 at 10:54 AM (#2941941)
OK, Crispix. I looked at that page before posting, but I couldn't figure it out. I'm not a contract expert.
   5. Edmundo, survivor of 7 right-sourcings Posted: September 15, 2008 at 10:56 AM (#2941946)
It's going to be a very interesting offseason for DH-types

Add Burrell and Dunn to the mix as they will look more and more DHish as the years roll by.
   6. Greg K Posted: September 15, 2008 at 10:57 AM (#2941947)
Manny could be on that DH-type list too, no?
   7. Craig in MN Posted: September 15, 2008 at 11:19 AM (#2941967)
Sure, a few more guys could end up as DHs as well, but that leaves the OF market begin very thin. I'd say maybe Manny, but that's it. I'd say it's more likely that Giambi, Griffey, Ibanez or Bradley end up as position players than that Burrell, Dunn or Manny end up as DHs. Too much demand for OFs, not enough demand for DHs.

Which teams would sign/add a DH this offseason? Chicago. Tampa is rumored to want Ibanez. Yankees, Angels, Texas, Twins, Oakland could all make the case to sign one if conditions are right, but they shouldn't bet the farm to acquire one. The rest of the league either doesn't need a DH or is in a spot where a high-priced DH won't likely help them compete.
   8. JuanGone..except1game Posted: September 15, 2008 at 11:23 AM (#2941969)
Let's not forget Hafner.
   9. Harold Reynolds: An Erotic Life (AG#1F) Posted: September 15, 2008 at 11:37 AM (#2941998)
Let's not forget Hafner.


??? He's signed through 2013. Awesome!
   10. The Jerry Royster Experience Posted: September 15, 2008 at 11:38 AM (#2942000)
Which teams would sign/add a DH this offseason? Chicago.

Jim Thome has a 2009 option for $13 million that vests automatically if he gets 564 plate appearances in 2008. He's currently at 543 plate appearances, so unless something unexpected happens in the next week or so, the White Sox won't be looking for a DH.
   11. CrosbyBird Posted: September 15, 2008 at 11:39 AM (#2942005)
Is Bradley no longer an effective fielder? If he could play a passable LF and he'd sign for 1-2 years, I'd like the Mets to consider him.

This is a good offseason to want a DH, no doubt. Pitching is probably still going to be insanely expensive, but there's a ton of power hitters on the market, and that will probably knock down the price a bit.

This looks like the best FA pool in a long time. There's an tremendous amount of talent out there.
   12. Craig in MN Posted: September 15, 2008 at 11:41 AM (#2942006)
Jim Thome has a 2009 option for $13 million that vests automatically if he gets 564 plate appearances in 2008. He's currently at 543 plate appearances, so unless something unexpected happens in the next week or so, the White Sox won't be looking for a DH.

I didn't realize that was a vesting option. Thome and the White Sox are off the board.
   13. Vance W Posted: September 15, 2008 at 12:02 PM (#2942029)
Is Bradley no longer an effective fielder? If he could play a passable LF and he'd sign for 1-2 years, I'd like the Mets to consider him.


He has the skills to play the position but is so fragile that it's a bad idea to try it. He has had a very hard time staying in the Texas lineup even as a DH.
   14. CrosbyBird Posted: September 15, 2008 at 12:04 PM (#2942033)
Oh, I was thinking that the Mets would keep guys like Tatis and Murphy around, both to spell Bradley in the field, and also to finally have a decent bench.
   15. Johnny Clash Posted: September 15, 2008 at 07:27 PM (#2942695)
he's evidently projected to be a Type B free agent


I don't understand how free agents are classified (A vs B etc)... but they guy is leading the league in OPS, how can he not have the highest rating?
   16. MM1f Posted: September 15, 2008 at 07:32 PM (#2942707)
15,
The ratings are based around certain numbers for the last 3 years, and playing time is a large factor so it isn't a total surprise that Bradley doesn't make Type A status since he has missed so many PAs.
   17. MM1f Posted: September 15, 2008 at 07:32 PM (#2942712)
Also, Marlon Byrd is 31!?
I feel ollllld.
   18. vortex of dissipation Posted: September 15, 2008 at 07:39 PM (#2942736)
Concerns about his fielding ability are legitimate, but I certainly wouldn't put Raul Ibanez in the "injury-concern" category. Assuming he doesn't hurt himself in BP in KC and gets in at least one more game this season, he's played 149 games or more in each of the last four seasons.
   19. Ivan Grushenko of HK in Tokyo Posted: September 15, 2008 at 07:59 PM (#2942796)
With Ramirez, Cruz and Byrd around, the pitching shortage and defense issues at SS and CF, why would the Rangers spend big, or even moderately big, bucks on a DH?
   20. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: September 15, 2008 at 09:10 PM (#2943011)
And Chris Davis.

The Rangers are going to have to trade Salty, me thinks. Should be an interesting offseason for them.
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