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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Tuesday, November 24, 2009Arnold: Can Edgar Martinez overcome traditional Hall of Fame measuring sticks?Help! They’re Brescianilyzing Edgar!
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Posted: November 24, 2009 at 07:26 PM | 27 comment(s)
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Well, you root for a team owned by Jeffrey Loria.
But on the Edgar thing, I wouldn't say "firmly" no, but I tend to think he's on the wrong side of the line. He's probably one of the top 250-300 players in MLB history, so given the size of the actual Hall of Fame, you can argue that he belongs (i.e., he's got a decent Hall of Merit case). But, at the same time, there are at least six guys on this year's ballot that are more deserving I think: Raines, Blyleven, Trammell, Larkin, Alomar, and Dawson; plus a 7th, McGwire, depending on your view of steroids, and I'm not sure that Edgar really distinguishes himself that much from Dale Murphy or Fred McGriff either. And, of course, that's without getting into guys that aren't on the ballot but are among the more egregious HOF omissions - Santo, Grich, Whitaker, et al.
That said, one thing that I do like about Edgar's case is that he's a lifetime .300/.400/.500 hitter.
Considering that his OPS+ is 39th all-time, tied with Willie McCovey, Mike Schmidt, Willie Stargell, and Alex Rodriguez, you might want to give his numbers a look.
I don't think there's any question whatsoever that the quality of his hitting is HoF-worthy. It's just a question of whether the quantity is there, and that's a close call...
Well, without delving deep into statistical analysis, Edgar simply kicks arse over these guys when it comes to production at the plate.
Shooty is spot on when mentioning the Big Hurt. If anyone is going in and being recognised as mostly a DH, it'll be Thomas. There isn't any rational argument which would exlude Thomas from election.
And my first thought when I read the post was the same as Kiko's in #3, there are simply other guys that belong ahead of him, for me, mainly Raines, Larkin and Alomar. However I'm a big hall guy and if it were my place, Edgar would be allowed in without needing a ticket.
20 players have done so in major league history (minimum 3000 PA). Ranked by career OPS+, Martinez is 16th and Thomas is 12th.
Rk Player OPS+ BA OBP SLG PA To From
1 Babe Ruth 207 .342 .474 .690 10616 1914 1935
2 Ted Williams 191 .344 .482 .634 9791 1939 1960
3 Lou Gehrig 179 .340 .447 .632 9660 1923 1939
4 Rogers Hornsby 175 .358 .434 .577 9475 1915 1937
5 Albert Pujols 172 .334 .427 .628 6082 2001 2009
6 Joe Jackson 170 .356 .423 .517 5690 1908 1920
7 Ty Cobb 168 .366 .433 .512 13072 1905 1928
8 Jimmie Foxx 163 .325 .428 .609 9670 1925 1945
9 Stan Musial 159 .331 .417 .559 12712 1941 1963
10 Hank Greenberg 158 .313 .412 .605 6096 1930 1947
11 Tris Speaker 157 .345 .428 .500 11988 1907 1928
12 Frank Thomas 156 .301 .419 .555 10074 1990 2008
13 Manny Ramirez 155 .313 .411 .591 9437 1993 2009
14 Mel Ott 155 .304 .414 .533 11337 1926 1947
15 Harry Heilmann 148 .342 .410 .520 8960 1914 1932
16 Edgar Martinez 147 .312 .418 .515 8672 1987 2004
17 Chipper Jones 143 .307 .406 .541 9273 1993 2009
18 Lefty ODoul 143 .349 .413 .532 3659 1919 1934
19 Todd Helton 140 .328 .427 .567 7761 1997 2009
20 Larry Walker 140 .313 .400 .565 8030 1989 2005
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Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/24/2009.
While Edgar certainly has a case for eventually making it into the Hall via the VC (assuming that the VC isn't reconfigured into some other odd format between now and then), I think it's questionable whether or not he meets the general BBWAA standards for election.
That career summary presentation was very well done. I'm not sure that it changed my mind, but the real goal of something like that is to give the voter not sure but leaning "YES" a decent reason to hang their hat on. That presentation was informative enough that several writers will use info from it to fill columns in December.
It's hard to use P-I to get decent comps for Edgar because of the late start to his career. Looking at players from their 2nd to 15th seasons (try to get rid of some crap rookie seasons) with 5000+ PA, Edgar is an impressive 23rd in OPS+. But he's below Dick Allen (same PA) and Manny (more PA for Manny). You've got Schmidt, Reggie, Thome, Bagwell, Berkman, Sheffield, Belle, Vlad, Giambi not too far behind (but some definitely behind) -- and that's ignoring guys like Chipper, Griffey, Mathews, AROD, Piazza. Anyway, look at how many modern guys are on that list -- for whatever reason, putting up a 145-150ish OPS+ over 7000 or so PA isn't anything that special anymore. From Manny (155) to Giambi (144), there are 22 players on my list. Of those 22, 13 of them are currently active and/or roughly contemporaries of Edgar.
Alternatively, looking at players from ages 27 (Edgar's first full season) to 36, he comes in an impressive 16th with an OPS+ of 154. Again you've got Manny at 162, Giambi at 155, Sheffield at 154, and then Jones, Thome, Thomas, Bagwell, Walker, Piazza and even Helton and Delgado down at 144 and 143. Again a ton of current/contemporary players.
Edgar's career was just too short and what he did in those PA simply doesn't stand out in this era. There's no denying there are some fairly similar or worse players, especially by value, in the HoF. And not just the obvious Jim Rice comparison. But I'll argue for Larry Walker over Edgar and maybe Bobby Abreu. It would be hard to argue against Todd Helton too probably.
I'd really like somebody to take a look and explain the high relative performance of today's hitters (and pitchers?). Dan R's point about looking at standard deviations rather than an OPS+ type stat would certainly explain at least part of the reason why we're seeing such a high number of 150ish OPS+ type peaks. Do the fancier stats show anything similar?
Edgar played until he was 41, when he put up an OPS+ of 92 in 549 PA. At age 40, he put up an OPS+ of 141 in 603 PA. How many of the "others he is compared against" were hitting that well at over age 40?
Having that kind of a productive tail on a career is generally a signature for a rare and gifted hitter.
Understanding that you can't credit a guy for what might have happened ..... that does lead into the interesting speculation of what "might have been" had the Mariners hired someone more intelligent than Woody Woodward as GM in 1988. Woodward let Martinez spend his years from 24-27 in Calgary posting >900 OPS because the Mariners didn't need a third baseman since they had the awesome Jim Presley at third.
Very minor nitpick: it's a little hard to call Molitor a "1B/LF/RF type" when he's the almost perfect complement of that: 2B/CF/3B/DH. But since he was mostly elected as a "bat" your point probably still stands.
The two things I'd say:
(1) That is quite clearly not true pre-Ruth (and with some of Ruth's contemporaries.) Many were elected without 3000 hits and without that many HR.
(2) And the Hall of Merit take is that the Hall of Fame is being too picky with post-WWII bats in limiting it to the guys with the milestones. We've opened our doors to Dwight Evans, Reggie Smith, Keith Hernandez, Will Clark, Tim Raines (of course) and I think some others. Our 2010 election is in progress right now: an elect-3 year; two clear favorites (Larkin and Alomar) and a fairly weak backlog. Against that, Edgar stands a chance of first-year election, although that is far from certain.
Basil Ganglia - go read the HoM thread for Martinez. Many of us went in willing to give him some credit for his production while trapped in the minors; I think that after the evidence was laid out, rather fewer of us wound up impressed with the necessity of that. Perhaps he was just a late bloomer, like Bob Johnson or Jose Cruz.
I think Edgar's traditional case would have been helped a bit by the 1995 AL MVP. As it was the voters picked a guy who probably wasn't even the most valuable player on his own team.
I always favor guys like Edgar Martinez over guys like Molitor and Palmeiro. Being the cream of the crop for six or seven years means more to me for the HOF than being significantly above average for 20.
That being said this community makes itself look rather suspect when it markets Edgar Martinez for the HOF.
Edgar could hit. And that's it. Period. He wasn't good at third base. He was ok. His range was limited but he held onto what he caught and didn't compound situations which is common to some third baseman. And at the first chance the Mariners yanked him off the diamond and put him at DH.
Edgar was not fast nor was he a good baserunner.
Edgar was a key member of teams famous more for their failures than their successes. Fairly or no that is how those Mariner teams are remembered.
And my quibble of the value placed on Edgar's 7 year run where he arguably was the best right-handed hitter in the AL is that Edgar:
--missed on average almost 20 games a year
--never used his glove
--never seemed to really leverage the circumstances
This last point may seem odd. But if you look at the game there are players who take circumstances to generate some special output. McGwire did that in this time period. One would think a guy with Edgar's skill set would do the same. But while he was REALLY GOOD he didn't do anything that jumps out as extraordinary. No run of .350ish averages. No huge total base totals. Nothing that truly elevates.
Unfair? Well, if you are ONLY going to bring a bat to the table as your resume than it had better be a pretty d*mn special bat.
Being really good for 7 odd seasons just isn't there.
Lefty O'Doul needs to be elected to the HOF.
Ha! Good one.....
A better hitter and player than Palmeiro, in my opinion.
I just think that is too short of a run to overcome the other items listed.
And no, not a Ralph Kiner in the HOF guy either or some such.
The easy example of uber peak being a qualifier is Sandy who did leverage circumstances to his advantage to dominate the league and push his team to multiple championships.
If Edgar had done things similar to THAT I could perhaps look past being a partial player.
But then I am a smallish hall kind a fella'
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